Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 17. April 11, 2025
- Uncertainty plagues airline, aerospace, lessor industries over tariffs April 10, 2025
China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war
April 15, 2025, © Leeham News: It was inevitable: China has banned its airlines from accepting deliveries of Boeing airplanes.
The move is in retaliation against President Donald Trump’s boosting tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. Beijing placed retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125%. During the first Trump administration, the president placed tariffs of 25% on Chinese goods imported to the US. Beijing has allowed delivery of very few Boeing jets since then.
Illustration of many of the systems and components COMAC sources for its C919 jet. The smaller C909 regional jet is similarly sourced. Credit: Airframer.com.
The move once more blocks Boeing from the world’s second biggest aviation trade market. Additionally, Beijing blocked the import of US-made parts, according to Bloomberg News, which first reported the actions.
COMAC, Airbus production may be hurt
The latter move could hurt production of the COMAC C919 and C909, two home-grown passenger airliners that use many US-sourced parts, systems and engines.
A 150-passenger jet, the C919 is a direct competitor to the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo. The 100-passenger C909 is a regional jet. Bloomberg does not mention that parts imports for the COMAC jets are affected; it only refers to parts imported for the Boeing jets. But neither does Bloomberg report if COMAC-bound parts are excluded.
A ban on imported US-sourced parts for Boeing jets could grind to a halt operations by Chinese carriers that rely on Boeing jets. Such happened with export sanctions on Russian airlines using Boeing and Airbus jets, the latter which source many of its systems and some engines from US companies.
Airbus assembles the A320neo family at a plant in Tianjin. It’s also unclear of Beijing’s move bans parts destined for these aircraft.
Unclear what was hoped to be accomplished by banning imported US parts, even if Airbus and Comac are exempted it still indicates trouble for the fleet. Unless the trade war is already limiting demand to such an extent that large amounts of the Chinese fleet can be grounded without issue
Not a problem – assuming they mean direct. Just buy spares from the second hand market. Or send GE engines to SIN not XMN for overhaul
(1) China can still get parts via other airlines in other countries.
(2) It may have stockpiled certain parts in advance.
(3) Iran has become an expert at manufacturing its own parts for BA/AB aircraft…and Iran is friendly with China.
Bloomberg reports:
“Boeing still has numerous finished planes in inventory that were originally meant for Chinese airlines. The US planemaker has warned that an escalating trade spat could also hurt supply chains.. “
Iran has worked out systems for older Boeing jets, Airbus I have not seen.
What happens for China if they use bogus parts and a crash occurs? China is extremly sensitive to crashes for political aspects. The loss of life is what is tragic but political tends to rule the day.
Regardless its a mess and its stupid. But then that is what you get when you elect stupid. Non stupid are stuck with Stupid. Fortunately per the health inspection on Stupid, he has the body and chemistry of a 40 year old man.
If the US is committed there are ways to throttle excess spares.
In theory CFM aka Safran portion could supply engines for the China Built A320, but then it depends on what part of CFM makes what. Safran assembles for Airbus.
The details will come out or policy will suddenly change again. In this case Stupid is not only shooting his foot, he is blowing it off with a Mini Mac 11.
Bogus parts?? 🙃
It’s widely reported there were “bogus” engine parts circulating in the market, any prediction when a crash will happen?
@TW
FYI the flag carrier of Iran has a mainly AB fleet, only one BA freighter in its fleet.
Can you figure out the rest yourself? 😅
The US has been talking up about decoupling for almost a decade. So Americans got what they wished for, right?
“Be careful what you wish for”
🙈
Crafting policy on the basis of narcissism rather than intellect usually doesn’t work out well…
It’s just a highly visible “up yours” to America by China in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
I highly expect America to now embargo all aerospace items to China – that will stop all Airbus deliveries to China as well.
How would EU/Airbus/France/Germany see this? Would they just sit on their hands??
It would be incredibly difficult for them to do anything.
If America did embargo all aerospace items to China, then American suppliers to Airbus would be breaking American law if they supplied parts with the knowledge or suspicion that those parts would end up on a plane being sold to China. If Airbus unilaterally ignored the embargo, they and their managers would likely find themselves being sanctioned by America.
America wields too much power globally and applies it extraterritorially.
An embargo would definitely be interpreted as hostile, and China dumping US Treasuries could be one of many countermeasures.
Perhaps Mr. Hamilton will weigh in here…but, as far as I know, the 50/50 participation of GE and Safran in CFM allows each partner to produce independently.
So, not quite sure to what extent the US thinks it can “forbid” Safran from producing LEAP-1As for use on Chinese Airbuses.
There are most likely a mix of EU and US sourced parts in each engine, whether produced independently or not.
So, Mr. Hamilton’s remark can be construed as indicating that, if Trump tries to curtail Safran’s freedom to supply LEAP-1As to Chinese Airbuses, then Safran can withhold parts from LEAP-1Bs for Boeings.
Not a good scenario for Boeing, I would imagine.
Abalone as usual has totally mischaracterized the situation. [Edited.]
CFM and GE are not the actors in this. US and China are, France is involved as is a lot of Europe due to cascade affects.
Safran is not going to do anything. France and or various combination of Europa countries be it the Airbus group or the EU may.
The Tariff war instituted by the the OAE has reverberations across the spectrum.
There are aspects of this that have an underlying truth. Bureaucratic barriers when so called free trade goes the other way, yes its a reality.
All presidents have ignored that.
So along comes the OAE and he thinks he can make himself looks like a big deal changing it. But he is stupid, has no strategy, does not understand impacts and severely damages the US.
We can only watch and see how it plays out. If the Repubs dessert him then things can be done.
¿Acaso las leyes USA con universales? Que soberbia tan grande lo que has comentado. Si yo quiero venderle a China, y en mi país no hay delito por ello, no veo quien le ha dado vela a USA para decirme a quien y qué puedo vender.
Ojalá la locura de Trump lleve al resto del mundo a ver que la amenaza más grande contra el bienestar mundial viene de USA, y que nos libremos de estas actitudes de malote del colegio.
Better for everyone to start digging dirt out and refining at their backyards. We’ll see.
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@TW
Your Mr Fixer is working hard, just give him more time. “Short-term pain, long-term gain”!! Just hold your breath a little longer, “better days” are coming. Don’t come back crying and complain, he’s your guy.
Ah now I Know you are one of those longing for interesting time! Thx.
The news comes from a single agency, it reports:
“Beijing also asked Chinese carriers to halt purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies”
Halt purchases, not equipmemts and parts delivery?
According to another source China also bans exports of parts to Boeing. Boeing may have paid 200 % for parts worth $100,000 for a 737 but replacing these parts immediately is priceless.
If china bans export of parts to the US, that should be a wakeup call for Airbus. Any chinese suppliers would have to be replaced asap. That’s a potentially company ending risk.
Of course Airbus could loose.
That is what the 919 is all about. Its not just Boeing with the target.
As Leeham has pointed out though, China needs Airbus and Boeing to fill their aircraft needs. Sure they can dump Boeing, Airbus can’t fill all those needs let alone when they want them.
Boeing has been the first target due to the situation. It could have been Airbus with a different history (say France sold Rafale to Taiwan).
In the end China wants all Western content gone. Anyone that thinks otherwise is fooling themselves
Haha, I believe your “zero-sum game” mentality morr likely to reflect some* Americans’ world view. Not sure it reflects those of typical Chinese.
This is a quick way to shut down your own production. And banning Boeing is about as effective as the US banning COMAC.
This was an odd response. I can think of just about any industry that would have sent a stronger message
We don’t know to what extent the Chinese have been working to purge the C919 and C909 of western parts. We do know that the Russians completed such a purge in the case of the MC-21 — so it shouldn’t be too difficult for China to do the same.
I suspect that we’ll (very) soon be hearing that the Chinese CJ-1000A turbofan is certified and in production.
The Chinese are masters of strategy.
Some Chinese emperors and warlords were masters of strategy. Can you name one master strategy of the Chinese Communist Party?
BTW, does the MC-21 still has a restricted service ceiling to 23,000 ft?
“Can you name one master strategy of the Chinese Communist Party?”
Let’s see: 🤔
How about the whole industrial and infrastructural revolution in China since the 1990s?
And the Belt and Road strategy — featuring a vast network of China-tilted suppliers and customers worldwide?
And the near-monopoly on rare-earth metal mining and processing?
And the successful rollout of the digital yuan cross-border payments system earlier this month?
Need any more examples?
—
I don’t know if the MC-21 has a restricted ceiling…last rumors I heard about that were from 2022.
I do know, however, that the aircraft is now free of western parts:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1309181.shtml
Global Times, mouth piece for the Chinese Dictatorship?
You should also read, testing. they have not done it and how many systems have simply been removed?
They are fighting a war and the losses have exceeded any gains aka production in many fields let alone aircraft.
So where do your resources go?
no new orders for Boeing from China since 2017 I guess the Chinese have decided they can operate their airlines without Boeing (new aircraft) Does this change anyone’s (Scott) mind on Chinese dependence on Boeing for the future?
That means soon or later, their Boeing fleet will be replaced.
Chinese airlines can sell their Boeings to Chinese lessors, who can then lease them to airlines in other countries.
ICBC (China) is the fifth largest aircraft lessor in the world — and its customers include BA, AA, Korean and Emirates.
Also possible to sell them to any number of lessors/airlines in other countries.
And Russia is still struggling mightily to “Russify” its planes.
Is it?
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1309181.shtml
Ha. Global Times is very pro-Russian.
Wake me when 50 Russified SSJs or 50 MC-21s have been delivered.
Yep
And what kind of Kludges are made to do so?
Educate me why the global times is considered very pro-Russian?? How about DJT?
I believe many mistook Chinese JVs as American, but it may not be true from Chinese POV. There’s a lot of hoopla here, I’d wait for further clarity. China has been preparing for a trade war for the last six, seven years or so, the chip escalation taught them a lot.
> Tom Friedman Thinks We’re Getting China Dangerously Wrong
“Here’s a simple principle that I believe deeply: You cannot make a good argument for a bad policy. You cannot make a coherent argument for an incoherent policy.”
https://nytimes.com/2025/04/15/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-thomas-friedman.html
FT: Trade, tech and Treasuries: China holds cards in US tariff stand-off
Planning, diversified markets and control of strategic materials potentially give Beijing leverage — if it can bear the pain
> Trump chaos is lending weight to Xi’s prophecy of ‘profound changes’
First mentioned in 2017 and dismissed by many as rhetoric, one expert says it now truly feels like the world is undergoing a major shift
https://x.com/pstAsiatech/status/1912148887130845228
I wonder which is worse: BA without REE or China without American-made new aircraft, equipments and spare parts?
=========
Related:
CBC: Trump’s tariff confusion could leave planes, engines in limbo
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-tariff-aircraft-airbus-bombardier-1.7507709
China clearly wants Boeing gone from their market, sooner rather than later. They’d rather scrap or sell the planes before the Taiwan War so as not to be distracted by them later.
Maybe Russia can take delivery of their unwanted spares, they seem to be doing a slower and more gradual transition.
15-20 years from now, it might be that if you don’t have an all-domestic supply chain, you might as well not have any.
50-70 years from now, flying a non-Chinese aircraft might become an exotic experience people blog about like flying a 747 today.
You think BCA can last another 15-20 years without REE?
Oops sorry maybe I misunderstood your post.
just fyi
On the C929, a couple years ago
Broetje won the bid for the C929 fuselage assembly line (a couple years ago)
Note Broetje is owned by Shanghai Electric (purchased around 2016)
https://www.jeccomposites.com/news/spotted-by-jec/broetje-won-the-bid-for-the-c929-fuselage-assembly-line/?news_type=announcement,business&end_use_application=aerospace
The days of having US companies supplying commercial aircraft production equipment are now in the past Closer ties with EU If I recall right, a composite tape layer machine was purchased from a EU company to develop the processes for the C929 fuselage sections
According to the Reuters article, “China’s top three airlines – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines had planned to take delivery of 45, 53 and 81 Boeing planes, respectively, between 2025 and 2027″…
That’s not chicken feed.
Not just Chinese airlines:
“Ryanair warns aircraft deliveries at risk from tariff chaos”
“Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has warned that Europe’s largest low-cost airline could delay deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive, setting up a battle between manufacturers and airlines over who will shoulder the costs from Donald Trump’s trade war.
““If tariffs are imposed on those aircraft, there’s every likelihood we may delay the delivery,” O’Leary told the Financial Times. Ryanair is due to receive another 25 aircraft from Boeing from August, but does not need the planes until “kind of March, April 2026″, he added. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/04/15/ryanair-warns-aircraft-deliveries-at-risk-from-tariff-chaos/
Even worse:
Imagine the reaction in case MOL went ahead and signed a mou with COMAC 😭
Mind you, Donnie is about to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical and Ireland is a major exporter with the US! He is fighting a trade war— he started nonetheless— against the whole world (well, excluding like Russia and N Korea).
> Trump tariffs could result in Ryanair buying Chinese planes, say aviation analysts at Barclays
https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/trump-tariffs-could-result-in-ryanair-buying-chinese-planes-say-aviation-analysts-at-barclays/a1606719568.html
Ireland is an offshore tax pirate, stole its pharmaceutical industry from the USA and the UK,this is one area where Donnie does actually have a sort of socialist point
DO’L is an accountant and was always going to buy Comac as soon as they are certified and proven,(and actually available in large quantities),at least 15 years
Please explain how Ireland “stole its pharmaceutical industry from the USA”
(with emphasis on “stole”)
Of note:
“It might surprise you to learn that nine out of ten of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies are established in Ireland. Why is this? Well, pharma companies enjoy the benefits of an English-speaking population, a friendly business environment and a favourable tax environment, and a well-educated workforce.”
https://www.innopharmaeducation.com/blog/why-ireland-attracts-the-top-pharmaceutical-companies
Nevada has lower corporate taxes than Ireland — but it doesn’t have a sufficiently highly-educated workforce, it seems.
IIRC American “persuaded” European from charging higher taxes against US tech giants and tax reform like forcing Ireland to adopt higher tax rates. Guys, you can’t have it both ways.
Wow, I’ll have some of whatever you’re smoking. Powerful stuff!
Comac will not be purchased in significant quantities by airlines outside of China and adjacent counties until it has a support network established. How is Comac doing on that front?
It has already set up offices in Singapore and Hong Kong.
https://sustainabilityinthesky.com/comac-opens-two-new-offices-in-asia/
There are lots of China-aligned countries where similar COMAC operations could be set up.
Why would anyone bother to talk with a brick wall?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GolX6RGW0AA1DoW?format=jpg&name=large
To satisfy due diligence requirements before taking retaliatory measures.
And, importantly: to get a clearer picture of just how incompetent and ignorant the other side is 🙈
From the article linked above:
> Several industry executives said they were already dealing with a huge increase in the amount of paperwork and red tape needed to comply with existing tariffs, notably those on steel and aluminium. Companies had to provide the weight of individual components as well as the origin of the metal, said one senior manager.
> One aerospace chief executive said there were still “a lot of questions” over how tariffs would be levied and calculated.
You mean Trump fired from the hip without having any understanding of the complexities of the global supply chain, nor the consequences of disrupting that supply chain?
Surprised Pikachu face.
There was so much confusion that even the staffers at the W.H. got the “first” EO wrong! And the US Customs has to refund those overcharged.
> All the EXEMPTED items under the new EO that came out to amend the current reciprocal tariffs order, are listed in the link below and are now subject to backdated refunds to April 5th and a tariff of only 20% NOT the original reciprocal tariff (155%) in the first EO.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Goc4gn5XQAASmLt?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Goc4gnrXAAEEkoa?format=jpg&name=900×900
classic example of how offset works in the commercial aircraft industry…buy aircraft and receive production work
“He called on COMAC to partner with Vietnamese firms to manufacture aircraft components, assemble aircraft, develop the aviation ecosystem and the aviation economy, train high-quality human resources, explore Vietnam’s outer space potential, invest in aircraft maintenance and repair centers in Vietnam, contributing to the substantive and effective development of Vietnam–China relations.”
just a note: MHI Vietnam does work in Hanoi for 737 inboard flaps and 777 doors
How many aircraft are they going to order for COMAC Vietnam to work out? 🤔 Where is our poster decrying there’s no FAA certification?
Our poster will just mock Vietnam as being an insignificant market — just like he recently did in the case of Laos.
Mind you, Boeing hung out the balloons when MIAT in Mongolia ordered two 787s…
A sign of the times — and another sign of China and its partners just ignoring the US:
“China’s Y-20 aircraft arrival in Egypt sparks U.S. concern”
“On a seemingly routine day, the skies over Egypt bore witness to an unusual sight: five or six Chinese Xi’an Y-20 military transport aircraft touched down, as tracked by open-source intelligence observers and flight data from platforms like Flightradar24.”
“This event, unfolding in mid-April 2025, has sparked curiosity and debate among analysts and enthusiasts alike. While the precise nature of the cargo remains undisclosed, the arrival of these massive aircraft signals a deepening of military ties between China and Egypt, raising questions about Beijing’s strategic ambitions in a region long shaped by Western and Russian influence.
“The deployment of the Y-20, a cornerstone of China’s growing airlift capability, underscores a broader geopolitical shift, one that could reshape alliances and power dynamics across the Middle East and North Africa.”
“For decades, Egypt has relied on a mix of Western, Russian, and European arms suppliers, balancing relationships with the United States, Russia, and France. In recent years, however, Cairo has increasingly turned to China to diversify its arsenal, driven by both economic considerations and strategic calculations.”
“Beyond the question of cargo, the Y-20’s deployment to Egypt carries broader implications. The aircraft’s long-range flight—likely exceeding 10,000 kilometers from China—demonstrates the PLAAF’s ability to project power far beyond its borders.
“As noted by Chinese military expert Wang Mingzhi in a 2024 Xinhua report, such operations test pilots’ skills and showcase China’s logistical reach, signaling to both allies and rivals that Beijing can sustain operations in distant theaters.”
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/04/15/chinas-y-20-aircraft-arrival-in-egypt-sparks-u-s-concern/
maybe a sales tour for Y-20 military transport for Egypt Might be time to get rid of their US made C130s
Anyone surprised?
“Trump Blames China, Biden For Boeing Deal Collapse”
“Donald Trump has accused China of backing out of a major aircraft deal with Boeing, claiming the country is refusing delivery of jets it previously committed to purchase. In a Truth Social post, Trump said China “reneged” on the agreement and blamed President Biden’s leadership, saying, “They had zero respect for the crooked Biden administration.” The alleged breakdown in the Boeing deal comes amid rising U.S.–China tensions over trade and technology.”
“Trump also linked the situation to American agriculture, noting that farmers often bear the brunt of trade wars. Recalling his previous $28 billion bailout for farmers during his first term, Trump said China was “brutal” then but more compliant under his leadership. He accused Biden of failing to enforce the original trade deal, allowing China to underdeliver. Trump concluded by pledging continued support for U.S. farmers, promising, “The USA will protect our farmers!!!””
https://tippinsights.com/trump-blames-china-biden-over-boeing-deal-collapse/
Model of 747 sitting on table in the White House today back in Trump colour scheme
I has been there for a while, so sad as it is an ugly livery which disrespect USA heritage.
LBJ had bad taste, I can live with that.
Stupidity no one can live with
for the sake of variety
‘United said Tuesday that it plans to cut flights starting this summer to match disappointing domestic travel demand while bookings for pricier, international trips remain strong.”
“United warned that a recession could drive down its adjusted annual earnings to $7 to $9 a share from its currently projected $11.50 to $13.50.”
“Delta last week said it couldn’t reaffirm its full-year outlook citing uncertainty in the market.”
The rapidly declining consumer sentiment in the US may soon push US airlines to start deferring orders…
When will they ever learn?
https://archive.ph/FWlRn
Germany snuggled up to Russia, we get a Ukraine invasion.
China wants world wide control.
Now granted, the OAE is as bad as Xi or Putin, but that does not mean the US as a whole is, nor France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.
Keep in mind, what you would be allowed to post in China or Russia wihtout getting sent to a Gulag or a re-education camp. Other countries have elected bad people, the US has one of the worst and with all too much power granted by the Supreme Ayatollahs.
There is not automatic answers or quick quips. As one Black person said. I looked at those Statues in the Southern US as a remnant from the past. Now I know its also today and the fight never ends.
How is this related to the subject matter? 🙄
This is a quote out of the visible portion that is behind the firewall.
” but its short-medium-range airliner is proving popular in its domestic market (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are current operators). The planemaker is now seeking customers elsewhere in the region, including Indonesia, Cambodia, and Kazakhstan. How potential U.S. tariffs will alter airline customer decision-making between Boeing and its rivals remains to be seen.”
When the government dictates you will buy and in fact makes all the decision on buying period (Airbus or Boeing) then when Xi says “I have a deal you can’t refuse” you don’t refuse.
15 aircraft is popularity? 15 forced sales? (with more to come).
When everyone has to march to the same drummer and take the aircraft (in your country) then its a wash, economics play no part. You are on equal footing. Your costs are the same, AOG is the same (on average) and now you can’t get parts let alone parts to build more.
Clearly the US is the bigger looser, but its something to think about that someone can misconstrue something as popular based on forced and fake orders.
Time to get out of your bubble!
The USAF was “forced” to take the KC-46A instead of the A330MRTT (which the USAF had previously chosen)…but that doesn’t count, of course.
Similarly, Trump’s tariffs are an effort to “force” US businesses to “buy American”…but that also doesn’t count, of course.
Living in a glass house 🙈
“U.S.′ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS”
““The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies and are used in types of fighter jets, submarines, missiles, radar systems and drones.
“Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements. ”
“The CSIS report warns that the export controls pose direct threats to U.S. military readiness, highlighting that the country is already lagging behind in its defense manufacturing.
“Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,” its authors said.
“They cite an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the U.S., originating from a U.S. Air Force official in 2022.
“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States,” the report concludes.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/us-is-unable-to-replace-rare-earths-supply-from-china-warns-csis-.html
Can’t make this up!
Bloomberg:
[TW’s guy] Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War
Shipment bookings have practically crashed:
US Imports ⬇️ 64%
US Imports from China ⬇️ 64%
I heard in a few months there’s going to be shortages everywhere.
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Reminds me the popular film meme of “Downfall”
https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/1912237470789644604
> Basically they’re appealing to China to get them off the hook they’ve got themselves on. Can’t see that happening
>> This feels like a sign of a remarkable breakdown in communications between the US and China. Trump’s spokeswoman reads out statement aimed at China urging them to call with an offer…
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> [For EU] The Trump administration is sending an early signal in its negotiations: The tariffs are here to stay.
>> Meanwhile when it comes to China… ⬆️ 🙊
In an SEC filing because of the Trump admin
> Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge for H20 GPUs to China
When is BA going to give out profit warning?