Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war
April 15, 2025, © Leeham News: It was inevitable: China has banned its airlines from accepting deliveries of Boeing airplanes.
The move is in retaliation against President Donald Trump’s boosting tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. Beijing placed retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125%. During the first Trump administration, the president placed tariffs of 25% on Chinese goods imported to the US. Beijing has allowed delivery of very few Boeing jets since then.
Illustration of many of the systems and components COMAC sources for its C919 jet. The smaller C909 regional jet is similarly sourced. Credit: Airframer.com.
The move once more blocks Boeing from the world’s second biggest aviation trade market. Additionally, Beijing blocked the import of US-made parts, according to Bloomberg News, which first reported the actions.
COMAC, Airbus production may be hurt
The latter move could hurt production of the COMAC C919 and C909, two home-grown passenger airliners that use many US-sourced parts, systems and engines.
A 150-passenger jet, the C919 is a direct competitor to the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo. The 100-passenger C909 is a regional jet. Bloomberg does not mention that parts imports for the COMAC jets are affected; it only refers to parts imported for the Boeing jets. But neither does Bloomberg report if COMAC-bound parts are excluded.
A ban on imported US-sourced parts for Boeing jets could grind to a halt operations by Chinese carriers that rely on Boeing jets. Such happened with export sanctions on Russian airlines using Boeing and Airbus jets, the latter which source many of its systems and some engines from US companies.
Airbus assembles the A320neo family at a plant in Tianjin. It’s also unclear of Beijing’s move bans parts destined for these aircraft.
Unclear what was hoped to be accomplished by banning imported US parts, even if Airbus and Comac are exempted it still indicates trouble for the fleet. Unless the trade war is already limiting demand to such an extent that large amounts of the Chinese fleet can be grounded without issue
Not a problem – assuming they mean direct. Just buy spares from the second hand market. Or send GE engines to SIN not XMN for overhaul
(1) China can still get parts via other airlines in other countries.
(2) It may have stockpiled certain parts in advance.
(3) Iran has become an expert at manufacturing its own parts for BA/AB aircraft…and Iran is friendly with China.
Bloomberg reports:
“Boeing still has numerous finished planes in inventory that were originally meant for Chinese airlines. The US planemaker has warned that an escalating trade spat could also hurt supply chains.. “
Iran has worked out systems for older Boeing jets, Airbus I have not seen.
What happens for China if they use bogus parts and a crash occurs? China is extremly sensitive to crashes for political aspects. The loss of life is what is tragic but political tends to rule the day.
Regardless its a mess and its stupid. But then that is what you get when you elect stupid. Non stupid are stuck with Stupid. Fortunately per the health inspection on Stupid, he has the body and chemistry of a 40 year old man.
If the US is committed there are ways to throttle excess spares.
In theory CFM aka Safran portion could supply engines for the China Built A320, but then it depends on what part of CFM makes what. Safran assembles for Airbus.
The details will come out or policy will suddenly change again. In this case Stupid is not only shooting his foot, he is blowing it off with a Mini Mac 11.
Bogus parts?? 🙃
It’s widely reported there were “bogus” engine parts circulating in the market, any prediction when a crash will happen?
Anytime . It’s past due already
Ten out of fifteen who worked at Boeing SC to assemble the 787 said they wouldn’t fly on the plane, fearing for the safety.
@TW
FYI the flag carrier of Iran has a mainly AB fleet, only one BA freighter in its fleet.
Can you figure out the rest yourself? 😅
Other than they crash a lot with Iranian parts?
Including the one shot down by USS Vincennes that killed 290 (and the US never apologized)?
Other than that, how many Airbus operated by Iran Air have “crashed”? Any example? Can you name one, just one?
The US has been talking up about decoupling for almost a decade. So Americans got what they wished for, right?
“Be careful what you wish for”
🙈
Crafting policy on the basis of narcissism rather than intellect usually doesn’t work out well…
It’s just a highly visible “up yours” to America by China in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
I highly expect America to now embargo all aerospace items to China – that will stop all Airbus deliveries to China as well.
How would EU/Airbus/France/Germany see this? Would they just sit on their hands??
It would be incredibly difficult for them to do anything.
If America did embargo all aerospace items to China, then American suppliers to Airbus would be breaking American law if they supplied parts with the knowledge or suspicion that those parts would end up on a plane being sold to China. If Airbus unilaterally ignored the embargo, they and their managers would likely find themselves being sanctioned by America.
America wields too much power globally and applies it extraterritorially.
An embargo would definitely be interpreted as hostile, and China dumping US Treasuries could be one of many countermeasures.
Perhaps Mr. Hamilton will weigh in here…but, as far as I know, the 50/50 participation of GE and Safran in CFM allows each partner to produce independently.
So, not quite sure to what extent the US thinks it can “forbid” Safran from producing LEAP-1As for use on Chinese Airbuses.
There are most likely a mix of EU and US sourced parts in each engine, whether produced independently or not.
So, Mr. Hamilton’s remark can be construed as indicating that, if Trump tries to curtail Safran’s freedom to supply LEAP-1As to Chinese Airbuses, then Safran can withhold parts from LEAP-1Bs for Boeings.
Not a good scenario for Boeing, I would imagine.
Abalone as usual has totally mischaracterized the situation. [Edited.]
CFM and GE are not the actors in this. US and China are, France is involved as is a lot of Europe due to cascade affects.
Safran is not going to do anything. France and or various combination of Europa countries be it the Airbus group or the EU may.
The Tariff war instituted by the the OAE has reverberations across the spectrum.
There are aspects of this that have an underlying truth. Bureaucratic barriers when so called free trade goes the other way, yes its a reality.
All presidents have ignored that.
So along comes the OAE and he thinks he can make himself looks like a big deal changing it. But he is stupid, has no strategy, does not understand impacts and severely damages the US.
We can only watch and see how it plays out. If the Repubs dessert him then things can be done.
¿Acaso las leyes USA con universales? Que soberbia tan grande lo que has comentado. Si yo quiero venderle a China, y en mi país no hay delito por ello, no veo quien le ha dado vela a USA para decirme a quien y qué puedo vender.
Ojalá la locura de Trump lleve al resto del mundo a ver que la amenaza más grande contra el bienestar mundial viene de USA, y que nos libremos de estas actitudes de malote del colegio.
Better for everyone to start digging dirt out and refining at their backyards. We’ll see.
==========
@TW
Your Mr Fixer is working hard, just give him more time. “Short-term pain, long-term gain”!! Just hold your breath a little longer, “better days” are coming. Don’t come back crying and complain, he’s your guy.
Ah now I Know you are one of those longing for interesting time! Thx.
@mike. T-bills mature and if you don’t buy new ones you get Cash. Japan has own t-bills to pay when they mature so they can use the usd they get for those payments
@ Claes
You don’t have to wait for Treasuries to mature in order to offload them — they can be sold at any time on the secondary market.
That’s what’s been happening in the past 2 weeks, and it’s pushing yields up.
Converting the USD proceeds of the sale to other currencies then causes the dollar to weaken — which is also what’s been happening in the past 2 weeks.
The US Treasury Dept. publishes holding data with a 2-month lag…so we won’t know until June who was offloading in April.
We can deduce, however, that a huge part of the selling was occurring in Asia, because of the time of day in which yields rose (night time in the US).
For retaliation purposes, the most strategic time to sell is in the hours just prior to a Treasury auction in the primary market — because this pushes up yields at the auction, thereby saddling the US government with higher borrowing costs.
The US has about $6 trillion debts coming due in the first half of the year. They can try to dump it in the short-end, but it’s plain to see the rolling snow ball is getting bigger and bigger (as the issuances concentrate in the short-end.) That’s like giving more bullets and bigger and bigger gun to bond vigilantes.
No one is mature enough to take real* action now to shrink the deficit.
“Don’t Cry for Me Argentina”?
@A. Yes T-bills are liquid and can be traded. Still if you let them run their time you get Cash. The US need to find a way to pay down its debt. If it just climb it will be expensive as interest rate will rise.
The news comes from a single agency, it reports:
“Beijing also asked Chinese carriers to halt purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies”
Halt purchases, not equipmemts and parts delivery?
According to another source China also bans exports of parts to Boeing. Boeing may have paid 200 % for parts worth $100,000 for a 737 but replacing these parts immediately is priceless.
If china bans export of parts to the US, that should be a wakeup call for Airbus. Any chinese suppliers would have to be replaced asap. That’s a potentially company ending risk.
Of course Airbus could loose.
That is what the 919 is all about. Its not just Boeing with the target.
As Leeham has pointed out though, China needs Airbus and Boeing to fill their aircraft needs. Sure they can dump Boeing, Airbus can’t fill all those needs let alone when they want them.
Boeing has been the first target due to the situation. It could have been Airbus with a different history (say France sold Rafale to Taiwan).
In the end China wants all Western content gone. Anyone that thinks otherwise is fooling themselves
Haha, I believe your “zero-sum game” mentality morr likely to reflect some* Americans’ world view. Not sure it reflects those of typical Chinese.
I think you’re being a bit naive. If you think China wouldn’t also drop Airbus if they could you need to re-examine why the Chinese govt is spending so much to try to make a competitor.
Well because Airbus is sitting on their hands, like Boeing??
Europe can ask for a FAL or be a contractor.
@ Zoom
Why wouldn’t China want a domestic player?
India would like one, too.
Helps shield against whims and tantrums in the outside world, doesn’t it?
But, until such time as China is self-sufficient in that regard, it seems to be quite willing to do business with Airbus. After all, it has hundreds of outstanding Airbus orders, and is considering more (ca. 500 more, according to Bernstein).
Airbus can just enjoy the ride while it lasts.
This is a quick way to shut down your own production. And banning Boeing is about as effective as the US banning COMAC.
This was an odd response. I can think of just about any industry that would have sent a stronger message
We don’t know to what extent the Chinese have been working to purge the C919 and C909 of western parts. We do know that the Russians completed such a purge in the case of the MC-21 — so it shouldn’t be too difficult for China to do the same.
I suspect that we’ll (very) soon be hearing that the Chinese CJ-1000A turbofan is certified and in production.
The Chinese are masters of strategy.
Some Chinese emperors and warlords were masters of strategy. Can you name one master strategy of the Chinese Communist Party?
BTW, does the MC-21 still has a restricted service ceiling to 23,000 ft?
“Can you name one master strategy of the Chinese Communist Party?”
Let’s see: 🤔
How about the whole industrial and infrastructural revolution in China since the 1990s?
And the Belt and Road strategy — featuring a vast network of China-tilted suppliers and customers worldwide?
And the near-monopoly on rare-earth metal mining and processing?
And the successful rollout of the digital yuan cross-border payments system earlier this month?
Need any more examples?
—
I don’t know if the MC-21 has a restricted ceiling…last rumors I heard about that were from 2022.
I do know, however, that the aircraft is now free of western parts:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1309181.shtml
Global Times, mouth piece for the Chinese Dictatorship?
You should also read, testing. they have not done it and how many systems have simply been removed?
They are fighting a war and the losses have exceeded any gains aka production in many fields let alone aircraft.
So where do your resources go?
Let’s look closer 🤔:
– China’s 1990’s industrial revolution: communism failed so they tried something else (free) market economy.
-Belt and Road strategy: ask countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Laos und Malaysia how well it works
-“rare earth metals” are not rare. Germany for example starts extracting lithium from hot springs already in use for geothermal energy power plants.
– digital yuan, remind me in a year or two.
The owner of the “Global Times” is the Chinese Communist Party.
The MC-21 is now free of a western aircraft cabin pressurisation systems.
The MC-21 is also free of the ability to fly in any meaningful way. Restricted range and service parameters to such an extent it makes the ARJ21/c909 look like a star performer. I wouldn’t hold that up as an example of success
FWIW for anyone who talks about “rare earth metals”, I won’t consider lithium among them.
If you want to talk lithium, you better know it’s about the size of reserve, and if it’s competitive in the intl market. Ask how many volume users like battery makers or automakers there are which would rather pay double the price of the international market.
Just like how many airlines are going to take delivery when the aircraft price is more than doubled.
@ Zoom
Got any sources for that info?
Or is it just hearsay?
—
FG reported 6 weeks ago that United Engines has started delivering serially-produced PD-14 engines.
I doubt that would be happening if the design weren’t satisfactory.
And where do you get information on Russia?
I have watched the missives being put out and they are nothing more than spouting what Russia is saying. No independent reporting whatsoever.
As much as I like Flight Global they should make clear the lack of being able to confirm information from those so called sources.
Like getting anything like the truth out of the Whitehouse.
How is it different from the West when they reported what Boeing CEO/CFO said?
Or how much fuel the 737 MAX is going to save for the airlines?
Or what came out of the mouth of an air force General?
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6536154
https://simpleflying.com/mc-21-6-tons-heavier/
Would like to see your source that the project is complete with no impacts on performance. And the “monopoly” on rare earth metals you quoted.
no new orders for Boeing from China since 2017 I guess the Chinese have decided they can operate their airlines without Boeing (new aircraft) Does this change anyone’s (Scott) mind on Chinese dependence on Boeing for the future?
That means soon or later, their Boeing fleet will be replaced.
Chinese airlines can sell their Boeings to Chinese lessors, who can then lease them to airlines in other countries.
ICBC (China) is the fifth largest aircraft lessor in the world — and its customers include BA, AA, Korean and Emirates.
Also possible to sell them to any number of lessors/airlines in other countries.
And Russia is still struggling mightily to “Russify” its planes.
Is it?
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1309181.shtml
Ha. Global Times is very pro-Russian.
Wake me when 50 Russified SSJs or 50 MC-21s have been delivered.
Yep
And what kind of Kludges are made to do so?
Educate me why the global times is considered very pro-Russian?? How about DJT?
That puff piece contains no information. Have a source that they’ve successfully produced any and actually flown? What are the tail numbers?
The big difference between Russia and China aircraft production is 75 years of experience for Russia. Yes the Chinese will have a had time dumping all the US made parts from the c919.
But, on the other hand, China’s industrial base is far more impressive and accomplished than Russia’s.
Chinese military aircraft are free of US landing gear, flight management systems, radars, etc., so why will it be so difficult to achieve the same for commercial aircraft?
The only real challenge is the engine — but the Chinese have the CJ-1000A almost ready.
chinese aerospace has underwent unprecedented investment and wide scale development as seen in the WS-10A engine and etc, but with commercial aircraft- achieving competency in the market doesn’t just require the creation of an engine, but it has to be excellent. i doubt at least the early offerings of the engine will be anywhere competitive with the offerings from CFM/GE/SAFRAN/RR.
also i have to emphasize the sheer amount of effort they had to put in to domesticate an older russian low bypass turbofan engine. this was accomplished because it was a mandatory step for the PLAAF.
Does china have the same motivation to get C919 through that much trouble and cost issues? that’s definitely unanswerable at the moment, in my opinion.
That 75 years of experience isn’t doing Russia much good right now.
The Su-35 and Su-57 suggest otherwise.
And do we know yet how good the MC-21 and PD-14 are?
Just because we don’t like the regime doesn’t mean that it can’t build good aircraft.
@Abalone
Yes, the Su-57 is very impressive when it comes to air shows. It’s very telling that Russia hasn’t deployed it in the one place that would seem to be crying out for it. Why is that?
On the commercial side, Russia is a joke. How many planes did they deliver last year? SEVEN! That’s after lots of noise about massive orders and ramping up production to replace western airliners with the aim to deliver 69. Ha ha ha.
I believe many mistook Chinese JVs as American, but it may not be true from Chinese POV. There’s a lot of hoopla here, I’d wait for further clarity. China has been preparing for a trade war for the last six, seven years or so, the chip escalation taught them a lot.
> Tom Friedman Thinks We’re Getting China Dangerously Wrong
“Here’s a simple principle that I believe deeply: You cannot make a good argument for a bad policy. You cannot make a coherent argument for an incoherent policy.”
https://nytimes.com/2025/04/15/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-thomas-friedman.html
FT: Trade, tech and Treasuries: China holds cards in US tariff stand-off
Planning, diversified markets and control of strategic materials potentially give Beijing leverage — if it can bear the pain
> Trump chaos is lending weight to Xi’s prophecy of ‘profound changes’
First mentioned in 2017 and dismissed by many as rhetoric, one expert says it now truly feels like the world is undergoing a major shift
https://x.com/pstAsiatech/status/1912148887130845228
I wonder which is worse: BA without REE or China without American-made new aircraft, equipments and spare parts?
=========
Related:
CBC: Trump’s tariff confusion could leave planes, engines in limbo
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-tariff-aircraft-airbus-bombardier-1.7507709
China clearly wants Boeing gone from their market, sooner rather than later. They’d rather scrap or sell the planes before the Taiwan War so as not to be distracted by them later.
Maybe Russia can take delivery of their unwanted spares, they seem to be doing a slower and more gradual transition.
15-20 years from now, it might be that if you don’t have an all-domestic supply chain, you might as well not have any.
50-70 years from now, flying a non-Chinese aircraft might become an exotic experience people blog about like flying a 747 today.
You think BCA can last another 15-20 years without REE?
Oops sorry maybe I misunderstood your post.
just fyi
On the C929, a couple years ago
Broetje won the bid for the C929 fuselage assembly line (a couple years ago)
Note Broetje is owned by Shanghai Electric (purchased around 2016)
https://www.jeccomposites.com/news/spotted-by-jec/broetje-won-the-bid-for-the-c929-fuselage-assembly-line/?news_type=announcement,business&end_use_application=aerospace
The days of having US companies supplying commercial aircraft production equipment are now in the past Closer ties with EU If I recall right, a composite tape layer machine was purchased from a EU company to develop the processes for the C929 fuselage sections
C929 is just a project. China needs a ‘pattern airliner’ before its builds one.
The C919 was originally going to be carbon fibre wing until the wing plant – surprise, got the Airbus A320 wing ramp up production contract, so C919 was swapped to a metal wing!
theres your pattern wing right there
yes. Same factory has A320 and C919 metal wings in production!
The A320 wing was way out of date anyway , and outclassed by the better wing lift and bigger wing fuel volume of the 737NG
That “outclassed” wing is still selling better. 😂
How difficult is it for BA 737 MAX to meet current safety requirements? 🙄
BCA has two good programs, may be three!
Not at the time
Boeing simply proved that fuselages are tubes and there is not a whole lot you can do to improve that form.
Wings are dynamic and two generations latter, a MAX is still competitive.
Do not mix up Boeing shooting itself in the foot with facts of new wings can improve any aircraft (aka Airbus and its so called wing for tomorrow on the A320s)
747-8 with new wing was a major boost.
A220 the wing was equal to the engine.
According to the Reuters article, “China’s top three airlines – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines had planned to take delivery of 45, 53 and 81 Boeing planes, respectively, between 2025 and 2027″…
That’s not chicken feed.
Not just Chinese airlines:
“Ryanair warns aircraft deliveries at risk from tariff chaos”
“Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has warned that Europe’s largest low-cost airline could delay deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive, setting up a battle between manufacturers and airlines over who will shoulder the costs from Donald Trump’s trade war.
““If tariffs are imposed on those aircraft, there’s every likelihood we may delay the delivery,” O’Leary told the Financial Times. Ryanair is due to receive another 25 aircraft from Boeing from August, but does not need the planes until “kind of March, April 2026″, he added. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/04/15/ryanair-warns-aircraft-deliveries-at-risk-from-tariff-chaos/
Even worse:
Imagine the reaction in case MOL went ahead and signed a mou with COMAC 😭
Mind you, Donnie is about to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical and Ireland is a major exporter with the US! He is fighting a trade war— he started nonetheless— against the whole world (well, excluding like Russia and N Korea).
> Trump tariffs could result in Ryanair buying Chinese planes, say aviation analysts at Barclays
https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/trump-tariffs-could-result-in-ryanair-buying-chinese-planes-say-aviation-analysts-at-barclays/a1606719568.html
Ireland is an offshore tax pirate, stole its pharmaceutical industry from the USA and the UK,this is one area where Donnie does actually have a sort of socialist point
DO’L is an accountant and was always going to buy Comac as soon as they are certified and proven,(and actually available in large quantities),at least 15 years
Please explain how Ireland “stole its pharmaceutical industry from the USA”
(with emphasis on “stole”)
Of note:
“It might surprise you to learn that nine out of ten of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies are established in Ireland. Why is this? Well, pharma companies enjoy the benefits of an English-speaking population, a friendly business environment and a favourable tax environment, and a well-educated workforce.”
https://www.innopharmaeducation.com/blog/why-ireland-attracts-the-top-pharmaceutical-companies
Nevada has lower corporate taxes than Ireland — but it doesn’t have a sufficiently highly-educated workforce, it seems.
IIRC American “persuaded” European from charging higher taxes against US tech giants and tax reform like forcing Ireland to adopt higher tax rates. Guys, you can’t have it both ways.
Ireland was forced into higher tax rates because it broke EU rules , which they had signed up to.
Those US Big Pharma dont operate much in Ireland. They just base their IP patents there and divert global and european sales to the computers there.
Uber is the same, holding company for many countries is based in Ireland , but very little staffing
@Duke
“There are more than 90 pharmaceutical companies located throughout the country, employing around 50,000 people.
“Around 30,000 of those workers are employed by US companies at plants located throughout Ireland.
“It is estimated that a further 50,000 jobs are supported by the pharma sector.”
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0401/1505311-pharma-sector/#:~:text=There%20are%20more%20than%2090,supported%20by%20the%20pharma%20sector.
—
You were saying…?
> In 2023, Ireland exported a total of $92B in Pharmaceutical products, primarily to United States ($31.6B), Belgium ($12.3B), and Germany ($9.75B) …
Just looking at one
‘The Merck Life Science Centre in Cork is a critical manufacturing facility within our company’s global network. Our Carrigtwohill facility is the global “Membrane Centre of Excellence” and produces millions of feet of various kinds of membrane each year.”
Various ‘membranes’ which mean Merck Ireland is $140 mill revenue compared to their global number of $64 bill
that is 0.2% comes from Mercks irish “production”
Sigh @DoU
> Five of the world’s eight top-selling drugs are produced in Ireland, making it the world’s largest net exporter of pharmaceuticals
> “Johnson & Johnson has been operating in Ireland for over 80 years. The company employs almost 3,000 people in Ireland with locations in Dublin, Limerick and Cork.
Pfizer employs over 3,300 people in Ireland in 7 locations including Dublin and Cork. Pfizer joined Ireland in 1969. More than 7 billion dollars has been invested into Pfizer’s Irish organisation in its 50 years here.
MSD* has locations in Dublin, Cork, Carlow and Tipperary. These locations account for almost 60% of the company’s global top 20 products.
Amgen joined Ireland in the 1990s. In 2010 they purchased the Pfizer building in Dun Laoghaire where they now employ over 450 staff. There is an additional location in Santry (North Dublin).
Abbvie is spread over five sites in Ireland including locations in Sligo, Cork and Dublin employing over 600 people.
Lilly has had a presence in Ireland since the 1970s. The company currently employs over 800 Irish people in locations around Dublin and Cork.
Gilead currently employs around 300 people in Dublin and Cork, these locations are responsible for distributing the company’s products to the European Union.
Bristol-Myers Squibb has been operating in Ireland since the 1960s and currently employs around 600 staff in Ireland in locations in Dublin and Shannon.
Abbott employs over 3,200 people across 11 sites in Ireland. Some of their locations include Clonmel, Cootehill, Donegal, Longford and Sligo.
Biogen employs around 600 staff within their Dublin office in Ireland.
Stryker employs over 2,000 employees across four locations in Ireland. The company joined Ireland in 1998 and has locations in Cork and Limerick.
Regeneron opened in Dublin in 2013 with their very first facility outside of the US. The company currently employs over 800 Irish staff.
Baxter employs over 1600 staff across five Irish sites in Dublin, Belfast and Mayo.
Finally, Alexion opened its first Irish facility in 2013 and now employs over 300 people across Dublin and Athlone”
* Do you know MSD? 😂
As people say: a little knowledge is a …
Don’t forget your humble pie, enjoy.
Wow, I’ll have some of whatever you’re smoking. Powerful stuff!
Comac will not be purchased in significant quantities by airlines outside of China and adjacent counties until it has a support network established. How is Comac doing on that front?
It has already set up offices in Singapore and Hong Kong.
https://sustainabilityinthesky.com/comac-opens-two-new-offices-in-asia/
There are lots of China-aligned countries where similar COMAC operations could be set up.
Well those offices will be closing down as they will have no product.
Give em another 20 years and they can match what is being built now.
By then its a new generation of systems.
After predicting no sale outside China, another great prediction that’s bound to fail. You never from your mistakes? What did you learn at school? Or at home??
… learnt* from your mistakes
Why would anyone bother to talk with a brick wall?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GolX6RGW0AA1DoW?format=jpg&name=large
To satisfy due diligence requirements before taking retaliatory measures.
And, importantly: to get a clearer picture of just how incompetent and ignorant the other side is 🙈
From the article linked above:
> Several industry executives said they were already dealing with a huge increase in the amount of paperwork and red tape needed to comply with existing tariffs, notably those on steel and aluminium. Companies had to provide the weight of individual components as well as the origin of the metal, said one senior manager.
> One aerospace chief executive said there were still “a lot of questions” over how tariffs would be levied and calculated.
You mean Trump fired from the hip without having any understanding of the complexities of the global supply chain, nor the consequences of disrupting that supply chain?
Surprised Pikachu face.
There was so much confusion that even the staffers at the W.H. got the “first” EO wrong! And the US Customs has to refund those overcharged.
> All the EXEMPTED items under the new EO that came out to amend the current reciprocal tariffs order, are listed in the link below and are now subject to backdated refunds to April 5th and a tariff of only 20% NOT the original reciprocal tariff (155%) in the first EO.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Goc4gn5XQAASmLt?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Goc4gnrXAAEEkoa?format=jpg&name=900×900
classic example of how offset works in the commercial aircraft industry…buy aircraft and receive production work
“He called on COMAC to partner with Vietnamese firms to manufacture aircraft components, assemble aircraft, develop the aviation ecosystem and the aviation economy, train high-quality human resources, explore Vietnam’s outer space potential, invest in aircraft maintenance and repair centers in Vietnam, contributing to the substantive and effective development of Vietnam–China relations.”
just a note: MHI Vietnam does work in Hanoi for 737 inboard flaps and 777 doors
How many aircraft are they going to order for COMAC Vietnam to work out? 🤔 Where is our poster decrying there’s no FAA certification?
Our poster will just mock Vietnam as being an insignificant market — just like he recently did in the case of Laos.
Mind you, Boeing hung out the balloons when MIAT in Mongolia ordered two 787s…
A sign of the times — and another sign of China and its partners just ignoring the US:
“China’s Y-20 aircraft arrival in Egypt sparks U.S. concern”
“On a seemingly routine day, the skies over Egypt bore witness to an unusual sight: five or six Chinese Xi’an Y-20 military transport aircraft touched down, as tracked by open-source intelligence observers and flight data from platforms like Flightradar24.”
“This event, unfolding in mid-April 2025, has sparked curiosity and debate among analysts and enthusiasts alike. While the precise nature of the cargo remains undisclosed, the arrival of these massive aircraft signals a deepening of military ties between China and Egypt, raising questions about Beijing’s strategic ambitions in a region long shaped by Western and Russian influence.
“The deployment of the Y-20, a cornerstone of China’s growing airlift capability, underscores a broader geopolitical shift, one that could reshape alliances and power dynamics across the Middle East and North Africa.”
“For decades, Egypt has relied on a mix of Western, Russian, and European arms suppliers, balancing relationships with the United States, Russia, and France. In recent years, however, Cairo has increasingly turned to China to diversify its arsenal, driven by both economic considerations and strategic calculations.”
“Beyond the question of cargo, the Y-20’s deployment to Egypt carries broader implications. The aircraft’s long-range flight—likely exceeding 10,000 kilometers from China—demonstrates the PLAAF’s ability to project power far beyond its borders.
“As noted by Chinese military expert Wang Mingzhi in a 2024 Xinhua report, such operations test pilots’ skills and showcase China’s logistical reach, signaling to both allies and rivals that Beijing can sustain operations in distant theaters.”
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/04/15/chinas-y-20-aircraft-arrival-in-egypt-sparks-u-s-concern/
maybe a sales tour for Y-20 military transport for Egypt Might be time to get rid of their US made C130s
US government foreign military aid to Eqypt paid for c130s
The Y-20 is just an updated Il-76 , still retaining most of the airframe, wings even down to the double petal rear folding doors to ramp
> The Y-20 is just an updated Il-76
Enjoy your copixm.
Pictures out of China show them side by side. Y-20 is just a cleaned aerodynamics version. Same wing span, similar max weight etc. and of course why include an out of date 3 rear fuselage folding ‘petal doors’ when every other modern airlifter the ramp is also the pressure door and outside mould line.
Its an unlicensed IL-76 is why
this is Y-20 rear doors
https://www.twz.com/wp-content/uploads/images-by-url-twz/content/2022/04/y-20-upper-deck-shanghai.jpg
This is the pattern aircraft the venerable Il-76, and its rear doors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_Research_Centre#/media/File:Il76md10.jpg
Keep up your work for the United Front despite facts not supporting it
Yup you can see their internal from looking at the exterior image. 😭
Just two numbers
> 10,000 km (6,200 mi, 5,400 nmi) with 16.5 tons of freight
> 9,300 km (5,800 mi, 5,000 nmi) with no payload
@Duke Tell me what’s “United front” connection here? @Scott
Anyone surprised?
“Trump Blames China, Biden For Boeing Deal Collapse”
“Donald Trump has accused China of backing out of a major aircraft deal with Boeing, claiming the country is refusing delivery of jets it previously committed to purchase. In a Truth Social post, Trump said China “reneged” on the agreement and blamed President Biden’s leadership, saying, “They had zero respect for the crooked Biden administration.” The alleged breakdown in the Boeing deal comes amid rising U.S.–China tensions over trade and technology.”
“Trump also linked the situation to American agriculture, noting that farmers often bear the brunt of trade wars. Recalling his previous $28 billion bailout for farmers during his first term, Trump said China was “brutal” then but more compliant under his leadership. He accused Biden of failing to enforce the original trade deal, allowing China to underdeliver. Trump concluded by pledging continued support for U.S. farmers, promising, “The USA will protect our farmers!!!””
https://tippinsights.com/trump-blames-china-biden-over-boeing-deal-collapse/
Model of 747 sitting on table in the White House today back in Trump colour scheme
I has been there for a while, so sad as it is an ugly livery which disrespect USA heritage.
LBJ had bad taste, I can live with that.
Stupidity no one can live with
for the sake of variety
‘United said Tuesday that it plans to cut flights starting this summer to match disappointing domestic travel demand while bookings for pricier, international trips remain strong.”
“United warned that a recession could drive down its adjusted annual earnings to $7 to $9 a share from its currently projected $11.50 to $13.50.”
“Delta last week said it couldn’t reaffirm its full-year outlook citing uncertainty in the market.”
The rapidly declining consumer sentiment in the US may soon push US airlines to start deferring orders…
and layoffs
When will they ever learn?
https://archive.ph/FWlRn
Germany snuggled up to Russia, we get a Ukraine invasion.
China wants world wide control.
Now granted, the OAE is as bad as Xi or Putin, but that does not mean the US as a whole is, nor France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.
Keep in mind, what you would be allowed to post in China or Russia wihtout getting sent to a Gulag or a re-education camp. Other countries have elected bad people, the US has one of the worst and with all too much power granted by the Supreme Ayatollahs.
There is not automatic answers or quick quips. As one Black person said. I looked at those Statues in the Southern US as a remnant from the past. Now I know its also today and the fight never ends.
How is this related to the subject matter? 🙄
US has invaded ME countries in order that Saudi oil continues to flow. It continues despite their own oil production boom from fracking.
Its what major military powers do since 1945… except China , who follow the historic Hanseatic model.
The US would rather spend like $3.5 trillion on its Iraq War instead of infrastructure.
Srsly??? A good example of how disinformation and misinformation feeding on each other would result.
There’re Americans living in SZ, active users of X. LMAO
===========
Eventually, Trump is going to grow restless and insecure and threaten to remove the U.S. security blanket to the world if they don’t immediately agree to sign his meaningless and unenforceable trade deals.
And that will really be America’s Suez Canal moment.
The entire Post WW2 economic and security global order led by the United States is at risk of collapsing before our very eyes.
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912507062468092117
This is a quote out of the visible portion that is behind the firewall.
” but its short-medium-range airliner is proving popular in its domestic market (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are current operators). The planemaker is now seeking customers elsewhere in the region, including Indonesia, Cambodia, and Kazakhstan. How potential U.S. tariffs will alter airline customer decision-making between Boeing and its rivals remains to be seen.”
When the government dictates you will buy and in fact makes all the decision on buying period (Airbus or Boeing) then when Xi says “I have a deal you can’t refuse” you don’t refuse.
15 aircraft is popularity? 15 forced sales? (with more to come).
When everyone has to march to the same drummer and take the aircraft (in your country) then its a wash, economics play no part. You are on equal footing. Your costs are the same, AOG is the same (on average) and now you can’t get parts let alone parts to build more.
Clearly the US is the bigger looser, but its something to think about that someone can misconstrue something as popular based on forced and fake orders.
Time to get out of your bubble!
The USAF was “forced” to take the KC-46A instead of the A330MRTT (which the USAF had previously chosen)…but that doesn’t count, of course.
Similarly, Trump’s tariffs are an effort to “force” US businesses to “buy American”…but that also doesn’t count, of course.
Living in a glass house 🙈
A330MRRT decision was overturned by independent group because it didnt follow the USAF ‘own rules’ for selection in the first place.
Regardless of the (murky) process followed: the USAF wanted A, but was forced to take B.
USAF rule number one: buy “US”
Here is how the USAF calculated fuel consumption during the second competition: every KC-X would perform on average over 7 touch&go manoeuvres on every flight it will ever made. Oh, a smaller aircaft needs less fuel for that task! Who would have expected that…
The USAF wanted a freighter that can tank occasionally. Now it received a shortened freighter with insufficient refuelling capacity for the vast Pacific.
The best “gift” BDS has received in over a decade! What’s better than an own-goal?
Instead of a money-growing lifesaver, they got themselves a millstone around the neck.
“U.S.′ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS”
““The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies and are used in types of fighter jets, submarines, missiles, radar systems and drones.
“Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements. ”
“The CSIS report warns that the export controls pose direct threats to U.S. military readiness, highlighting that the country is already lagging behind in its defense manufacturing.
“Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,” its authors said.
“They cite an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the U.S., originating from a U.S. Air Force official in 2022.
“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States,” the report concludes.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/us-is-unable-to-replace-rare-earths-supply-from-china-warns-csis-.html
Can’t make this up!
Bloomberg:
[TW’s guy] Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War
Shipment bookings have practically crashed:
US Imports ⬇️ 64%
US Imports from China ⬇️ 64%
I heard in a few months there’s going to be shortages everywhere.
==========
Reminds me the popular film meme of “Downfall”
https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/1912237470789644604
> Basically they’re appealing to China to get them off the hook they’ve got themselves on. Can’t see that happening
>> This feels like a sign of a remarkable breakdown in communications between the US and China. Trump’s spokeswoman reads out statement aimed at China urging them to call with an offer…
==========
> [For EU] The Trump administration is sending an early signal in its negotiations: The tariffs are here to stay.
>> Meanwhile when it comes to China… ⬆️ 🙊
In an SEC filing because of the Trump admin
> Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge for H20 GPUs to China
When is BA going to give out profit warning?
“[For EU] The Trump administration is sending an early signal in its negotiations: The tariffs are here to stay.”
The EU has some powerful cards that it can play if/when the US wants to get tough — particularly as regards stopping shipments of high-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Pharma also comes to mind.
Who’ll blink first?
Trump didn’t do his homework before he started this.
Why should anyone buy US bonds in case the US doesn’t want to buy their goods?
CNN on China’s rare earth ban:
“China has a powerful card to play in its fight against Trump’s trade war”
““It’s China showing that it can exert incredible economic might by being strategic … and surgical and really hitting American industry right where it hurts,” said Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan.”
“For now, the impact of Beijing’s export controls is being swiftly felt on the ground.
“John Ormerod, founder of rare earth magnet consultancy JOC, told CNN that shipments of rare earth magnets belonging to at least five American and European companies have been halted in China since the imposition of the order.”
““Right now, literally these exports are being suspended,” Ballard said. “We don’t hold a lot of back stock of this in inventory here in the US … This is China’s best play. They don’t have much leverage when it comes to tariffs on us, but they sure do have leverage here.”
The export controls not only target single materials but also alloys and products where the elements are contained even in minimal quantities, said Thomas Kruemmer, director of the Singapore-based mineral and metal supply chain firm Ginger International Trade and Investment. “A lot of exports now fall under this licensing system,” he added, noting that some delays are expected as exporters navigate the new system”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/business/china-trumps-trade-war-rare-earth-intl-hnk/index.html
….. hence the Donny Stupid’s desire to acquire Canada & Greenland, as I believe both may have rich deposits of rare earth minerals, although in both cases extracting them may cause massive environmental damage and may to years to get to grasp with – but, unlike Ukraine they may not be thickly overlaid with landmines!
“According to a new report by S&P Global, the United States has the second-longest lead times in the world for developing a new mine.
“Mines in the US go from discovery to production in an average of 29 years, longer than in any other country except Zambia (34 years), the consultancy says.”
https://www.mining.com/us-has-second-longest-mine-development-timeline-in-the-world-sp-global-says/
😳 Is there an oversupply?? What happened to Trump?
FT: Donald Trump threatens to hit critical minerals with tariffs
WSJ has a different version:
> Beijing has told Chinese airlines not to place new orders for Boeing jets and is requiring carriers to seek approval before taking delivery of aircraft they have already ordered [What the hell? In who’s right mind willing to pay 125% tariff?? Delta won’teven pay 10%!]
> Bernstein Research estimated Tuesday that, out of the many 737 MAX in inventory, 27 were earmarked for China this year. Added to some 787s and 777Fs, cancellations that would amount to a $1.2 billion cash drain.
In another WSJ article:
> Also, China has powerful incentives to eventually back down. Comac and Airbus probably can’t meet its voracious demand for jets at the desired pace.
Crucially, the C919 is largely made up of American parts. Its engines, built by GE Aerospace and France’s Safran, are a critical component that homegrown competitors have struggled to effectively replicate. Were the U.S. to cut access to them, it would endanger China’s aerospace aspirations, which include a larger, in-development C929.
When it comes to a tussle about smartphones, Beijing may have the upper hand over American companies. In the case of aerospace, comparative advantage still lies with the U.S.
Who is going to tell that writer what’s happening? 🤔
After the electronics exemption last weekend, another one of Trump’s anti-China proposals gets watered down:
“US considering making port fees more affordable for Chinese ships”
“The Trump administration could scale back plans to assess massive fees on Chinese ships calling U.S. ports.
“The White House and the United States trade representative, which first proposed the fees, are considering a revised plan that would charge less for operators of smaller ships, as well as vessels carrying agricultural and other bulk exports.”
“Other options included adjusted fees for carriers based on the number of Chinese-built ships in their fleets.
“Under consideration is a charge based on the light, or unloaded, tonnage of vessels instead of a flat fee, aimed at smaller vessels that haul grain or other export commodities.”
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/us-considering-making-port-fees-more-affordable-for-chinese-ships-report
Chinese airlines specifically tend to buy at 5 year intervals in large block decisions on the government planning cycle. That’s just the way they do business with government approvals. Boeing was already in minimal sales position in China. Banning Boeing doesn’t change that position and in reality Boeing would be fully entitled to invoke a cancellation clause and pocket any deposits as liquidated damages.
Some earlier question about CFM and other sources of US material for MRO purposes. Parts in western engines are sourced from the entire world. CFM is a 50/50 venture but that does necessarily mean the production is split the same way. Moreover systems can be sent to other countries for refurbishment. Likewise Chinese MRO facilities offer services for aviation products of every nationality. If you are running an engine shop in China and cannot buy parts then you just put your own people out of a job. This is a hornet’s nest of compliance.
There is so much in this statement from Chinese authorities that leaves out details that it may be a big deal or may kneecap their own airlines. That’s the reality of a supply chain that rarely is sourced from a single country.
One can assume that China is putting far more thought into its moves than the US is putting into its own moves. After all, how many backtracks have we had from the Trump circus in just the past few weeks…versus how many backtracks from China?
As pointed out above: China can make use of MRO facilities in Singapore, etc., and it can also source parts from airlines in other countries.
The CFM discussion above concerned export blocking rights. Nowadays, the US affords itself the luxury of exercising export blocking rights on anything with even the tiniest amount of US content…but other countries can also play that game. So, if Trump wants to try to curtail LEAP-1A shipments to Chinese Airbus customers, he may find the EU playing a similar card back in his own direction as regards LEAP-1B.
@Casey:
Its a good synopsis but a key relevance is not stated right.
The Chinese government is the one that negotiates and buys the aircraft. It then alots them out to its owned airlines (the so called Big 3).
5 Years interval is the old Communist 5 year plan thing the current regime continues with.
One area I don’t know about is the non government (sort of) airlines. Some are city owned I know. I don’t know if someone Hiwah owns an airline and how they get their deliveries, aka out of Regime pool or do their own deals.
Cities have created their own airlines to get the service they want. China has cities that rival small countries in population.
I can easily list all the big cities in the US, China has a whole lot more and many if not all are bigger.
At least show your decency, research before you post apparent shxt easy to debunk.
Even an AI can be more honest:
“In 2012, China Eastern Airlines ordered 60 Airbus A320 aircraft… In 2014, China Eastern also signed a separate agreement for 70 A320neo aircraft..”
“In 2013, Air China placed an order for 100 Airbus A320 series aircraft.. “
Look in the mirror:
FP: “We’re All Soviet Now”
> The witty phrase “late Soviet America” was coined by the Princeton historian Harold James back in 2020
You haven’t recognized what you’re looking at yet.
> “But it only recently struck me that in this new Cold War, we—and not the Chinese—might be the Soviets. It’s a bit like that moment when the British comedians David Mitchell and Robert Webb, playing Waffen-SS officers toward the end of World War II, ask the immortal question: “Are we the baddies?”
I imagine two American sailors asking themselves one day—perhaps as their aircraft carrier is sinking beneath their feet somewhere near the Taiwan Strait: Are we the Soviets?”
On the other side of the world from the US-China clash:
“Airbus affirms 2025 targets but is still assessing impact of trade tensions”
“Faury said Airbus was facing a more limited number of problem cases than in the past, but still faced delays from a handful of large suppliers including French-U.S. venture CFM International, the world’s largest engine maker by units sold.
“”Engines are a major challenge; CFM is significantly behind the curve,” he said.
“CFM, co-owned by GE Aerospace and France’s Safran, declined to comment.
“Earlier this month, Reuters reported that a handful of undelivered planes were seen parked outside Airbus’ main factory in Toulouse including a China Eastern jet pictured without engines.
“In all, Airbus has assembled between 25 and 30 planes that it nicknames “gliders” because they lack engines, Faury said.
“Airbus also continues to face problems getting major fuselage or wing components from major U.S. parts supplier Spirit AeroSystems for its A350 and A220 jetliners.
“Chief Financial Officer Thomas Toepfer said Airbus expected to finalise a deal to take over some Spirit operations by the end of April, with the closing expected “ideally by June 30”.
“Airbus is expected to take over at least four Spirit plants as part of a rescue scheme put together in cooperation with Boeing, which involves dividing assets of the world’s largest independent aerostructures company to prevent its collapse.
““We continue working with Airbus on this matter,” Spirit spokesperson Joe Buccino said.
“Industry sources said the deal has been held up by negotiations over details like IT systems at an Airbus-related plant in North Carolina, which will remain connected for a while to the core Spirit plants to be taken over by Boeing.
“As a result, Airbus will depend on Boeing, its historic rival, to provide sensitive IT services for now, they said.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-studying-evolving-tariff-situation-121635959.html
This morning:
– Gold up at a new record.
– USD continues its fall (DXY now below 99.5).
– Oil and LNG prices down again — bad for US energy exports, but great for most of the rest of the world.
But…
– China reports better-than-expected 5.4% GDP growth in Q1.
Another fascinating day in Donnie’s all-singing, all-dancing, shoot-yourself-in-the-foot trade war circus
> US manufacturing output slows in March; tariffs cloud hangs over factories
Industrial production fell 0.3%
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, dipped to 77.8% from 78.2% in February.
> WTO slashes 2025 trade growth forecast, warns of deeper slump
The World Trade Organization sharply cut its forecast for global merchandise trade from solid growth to a decline on Wednesday, saying further U.S. tariffs and spillover effects could lead to the heaviest slump since the height of the COVID pandemic.
> Reuters: Analysis-Brazil auto market offers warning for US tariff policy
When Brazil hiked trade barriers in its auto market over a decade ago, the government promised more local manufacturing, reliable jobs and better cars.
Instead, carmakers opened and then shuttered factories, ultimately shedding jobs and slashing production. Brazilians routinely pay 50% more for the same models as regional peers today, with technologies often lagging behind global markets.
There were a stack up of pre orders. Ergo a bump in exports.
Overall China economy was not doing well to downright sick. Good news for China they can now blame Donnie Boy.
Where this all settles out is anyone’s guess. Both economies will be hurt badly. Yes the US looses strategic materials (and I believe there are stockpiles) China immediately looses the mining.
Yes I think its the totally the wrong way to go about this. But its also stupid to be dependent on someone who wants to bury you. And China wants to dominate everyone. Be it the US, Europe, Russia and any other part of the world.
When you have absurd statement like China has interests in the Arctic because its a Near Arctic Nation……………. fungh. And of course a Chinese Junk (great and amazing ships of a different design) sailed into the Pacific so they own the Pacific as well as an attached waters, like the Arctic Ocean.
Per the CFM discussion above, here’s an on-shoring step by Safran in France.
Expect a lot more steps like this from other non-US companies in the coming months.
“Safran creates new French aero engine parts facility”
“Safran Aircraft Engines is to create a new foundry works in Rennes, Brittany, to manufacture turbine blades for its M88 and LEAP engine programmes. Safran Turbine Airfoils will employ around 200 people, with potential expansion in the future.
“The new facility will be operational in 2027 and will further extend the company’s global production network for advanced fan blades.”
“Added Jean-Paul Alary, chief executive of Safran Aircraft Engines: “Safran Turbine Airfoils will help us meet the challenges of ramping up production of the M88 combat aircraft engine — most parts for which are made in France — and strengthen the LEAP supply chain by making some of the more critical engine parts in France.”
“The new facility will work closely with the company’s historic foundry in Gennevilliers, near Paris.”
https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/safran-creates-new-french-aero-engine-parts-facility/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-open-to-talks-if-trump-shows-respect-names-point-person?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true
China opens to negotiations, appoints new trade negoatiator
One wonders if Donnie will ring Xi, to seek a benediction?
I doubt it — that would be a huge loss of face.
On the other hand, emptying supermarket shelves in May, and continuing forced abstinence from rare earths, might just cause a Damascene conversion.
you are right about empty shelves
“Virtually no cargo ships were bound for the U.S. by Thursday from once-bustling ports in Shanghai and Guangdong, while operations at export factories in provinces that feed China’s export empire have ground to a halt, sources in the country said.”
“Stacks of shipping containers that failed to make the ships bound for the U.S. by the April 9 deadline are now piled high at Shanghai and Guangdong ports, local businessmen told RFA.”
I don’t agree with the great orange one about tariffs (never forget that the 2Bn daily extra income from tariffs is in reality tax revenue from USA taxpayers, not from the exporting countries!) but he does have a point (not that I think he has realised it!). Here in the UK I went round a couple of local supermarkets the other day and looked in the homeware sections – just about everything there from a to z was labelled “made in China”. Christmas now arrives in containers loads from China, as do much of the contents of our wardrobes, and Chinese cars are flooding onto our roads. We really do need to get out of the habit of buying the cheap, frankly low quality Chinese stuff and get back into the habit of supporting our own business to encourage them to make better stuff locally, even if it costs us more.
And where will the UK workforce for this transformation come from?
Are Brits standing in line to do menial assembly work in factories…for a meager wage?
Post-Brexit, how many farmers lamented the lack of laborers willing to work on farms?
Does the UK have the humming logistics apparatus that China does?
The trick is to make high-end stuff yourself — like precision machinery — and import lower-end stuff — like textiles and soft toys. The US follows the exact opposite path: it imports electronics and machinery and exports soy beans. It used to export aircraft also, but has since lost the ability to manufacture those reliably and profitably.
@roger:
Valid point, but the smoke Donnie Boy is blowing is we get great jobs. The problem is twofold.
1. Those low cost goods now cost a lot more, neither the US nor UK (etc) is a low cost producer. So, no more extension cords. I can patch mine. For others that then becomes a far more serious purchase. Businesses are also affected.
2. It takes years to build up a capability. In the meantime, we get hit with a depression and none of that happens because there is no money.
So, yes we should have been working on the things we have to have and cut China and Russia out of the loop. But it should be a long term sustained policy.
I see Europe is making big eyes at China now. So Europe winds up in the same boat as the US with an equally hostile China that wants to crush it.
From my standpoint I never had any interest in crushing China, I never wanted to be occupied by them either.
Wired:
“In as little as a few weeks, Americans may have a harder time finding some products on store shelves, which will eventually lead to higher consumer prices.” Great time!
I can tell you the elites are hunkering down, well stocked.
Shows you who’s the adult here.
How long did the last trade take to negotiate? Boeing and GE Aerospace can’t survive for long. Time to start digging in your backyard.
“California suing Trump to stop his ‘unlawful’ tariffs”
“California on Wednesday is set to sue President Donald Trump to halt his sweeping tariff regime, arguing that he is implementing his protectionist trade agenda illegally.
“The forthcoming federal lawsuit will make California the first state to challenge the Trump administration over its wide-ranging tariff plans, which have whipped up historic market volatility and frayed America’s relationships with its allies and trading partners.
““Donald Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally impose the largest tax hike of our lifetime with his destructive tariffs,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom wrote on X. “We’re taking him to court.”
“The lawsuit will argue that Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act — which he recently invoked to impose his so-called reciprocal tariff plan — is “unlawful and unprecedented,” Newsom’s office told NBC News.
“”The situation creates “immediate and irreparable harm to California, the largest economy, manufacturing, and agriculture state in the nation,” the office said.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trump-tariff-lawsuit-california.html
“China stares down Boeing parts shortage while Comac stockpiles”
“For now, airlines and leasing firms have built up a buffer of spare parts over the past couple of years – both from planemakers and from buying up older aircraft – that should help the industry weather the near-term need, people familiar with the matter said.
“Comac has also stockpiled engines to build dozens of planes IN 2025, one of the people said, while Chinese government officials are considering asking Airbus to supply any new jets with an extra set of engines, other people familiar with the matter said.
“Even if those engines may have been made by US companies or have US components, they would not be levied if they arrive attached to a plane from a French manufacturer, people familiar with Beijing’s thinking said, asking for anonymity to discuss private matters.”
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-stares-down-boeing-parts-shortage-while-comac-stockpiles
—
This bit is really interesting!
“Comac’s engine stockpile is largely due to the fact it has been anticipating orders later in 2025 from Hong Kong, Middle East and Vietnamese carriers, one of the people said.”
“The Donald Trump administration has announced a new tariff of up to 245% on China, escalating trade tensions between the two nations.”
“China faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions.
This includes a 125% reciprocal tariff, a 20% tariff to address the fentanyl crisis, and Section 301 tariffs on specific goods, between 7.5% and 100%.”
Cargo ship cancellations cause concern from CEO and workers at US largest container port
Port of Long Beach is expecting a 20% decline in container volume based on China tariffs for the second half of 2025 (short video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkpFdCrAK6s
How it’s going… 👇
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Govaqq7WYAA53Tu?format=jpg&name=large
MAGA!!
> Two of our American customers devastated by the tariffs gave up and sold themselves to their Chinese factories in the last week.
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1912852925703151878
Wow seppuku by Trump??
> Thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change. 🧵
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1912890256216695002
for the sake of variety
The Grinch that tariffed Christmas
US’ tariffs on Chinese toys and lacking capacity to make ‘Christmas at risk:’ industry veteran
“US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese products could put “Christmas at risk” due to US’ limited toy production capacity, Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of the Toy Association of the US, said in an interview with CNN. ”
“No toys are currently being produced in China [for the US market], and there are reports that major retailers here in the US are starting to actually cancel orders,”
Well I don’t need any cheap toys!
What is affected is businesses that do sell them and the people they employ not just direct but the supply chain.
When prices of “cheap toys” increase, they aren’t “cheap” anymore. Mission Accomplished!
Rare gem of understanding there.
The more complex formula is that low (which can also mean cheap in the build sense) go up in price, they become optional, not something you can just buy.
The higher the cost then it becomes a non optional decision and its simply no longer there, the low cost is gone.
If I damage an extension cored, I can repair it. If a business damages an extension cored, they are not allowed to repair it. Its against regs.
So, lots of damaged extension cords for business (it happens, wear and tear and environment you work in, the more constitution related the worse it is) and the price gets passed on.
Oh? None to be had, they don’t make them in the US. No big deal, start a factory making them. Oh, but the cost is 6X what we have been buying. And we have to add to our hourly rate of bid prices to accommodate that (except we can’t even get extension cords for 2 years while a factory is built, if anyone even does that)
Nails? Screws? All made over seas. Carpentry prices through the roof. 80% rack back in people that can afford to buy a far more costly house (or the lumber etc)
And then there is a strange factor. When I was building houses, the South Korean nails hit the market. We could still get US Steel nails, but only if you worked for a custom builder, otherwise they threw in a box of South Korean nails (same price). Because they made more money on the South Korean nails, buy low, sell the same as US Steel.
In the case of 16 Penny Nails (US standard for 2 inch material nailing) the South Korean nails were not only low cost, they were cheap mfg. They bent easily. You had to have perfect drive angle. A US Steel 16 penny was more forgiving.
At the same time Nail Guns were coming on, ok, fully supported and I believe at the time US made clips. Now you can’t buy anything other than a cheap 16 penny nail and while contractors don’t use lots of them, sub contractors, small builders, shed builders, home owners do.
We are not getting back US Steel nails, and we may not be able to afford even cheap nails.
That is the stupidity of all of this, it may be bad but an equilibrium existed and you could maneuver in that, open up other sources, see about on shore and use of automation, but only over time.
Shock the system and it comes to a screeching halt.
When you work with your hands for a living, those aspects are always right in front of you and immediately obvious. I did all my life and continue to do so.
I have a greenhouse to assemble this year (Kit from Canada) next year that kit goes up to what? Even raw wood if you do your own design goes up to what?
Trump tariffs will send global trade into reverse this year, warns WTO
“World Trade Organization says trade between US and China is expected to plunge by 81% in ‘decoupling’”
“The WTO predicts some “diversion” of trade, as Beijing seeks new markets for its goods outside the US. Chinese exports to regions outside North America are expected to expand by between 4% and 9%, in 2025.”
Just in a days work for Donnie
“BREAKING: $1.5 trillion in value has been wiped from US stock market today”
“De-dollarization: Goldman Sachs Predicts Grim Future for U.S. Dollar”
“The Goldman Sachs analysis shows that de-dollarization is intensifying at this time which indicates major challenges for US currency operations due to Treasury bond prices rising while investors pull their assets from abroad. The present worldwide economic rebalancing offers indications that the United States dollar could lose its currency dominance within upcoming months.”
“The FX strategy team of Goldman Sachs declared:
““The recent governmental actions cause markets to question both the management framework and structural legitimacy of U.S. institutions.””
“The de-dollarization trend triggered Barclays to release an analysis under the provocative heading “The end of the dollar as we know it?” Recent trading shows the euro making an unexpected and significant ascent against the dollar.”
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/084f6-de-dollarization-goldman-sachs-predicts-grim-future-for-u-s-dollar
—
Donnie’s decimation of stock markets is impressive, but he’s causing much greater devastation in bond and FX markets.
Sadly for his home base: a huge majority of US treasuries, corporate bonds and stocks is owned by US institutions and individuals — not by foreigners.
Prologue
> TRUMP: POWELL’S TERMINATION `CANNOT COME FAST ENOUGH’
Act 1
> EUROPE’S FINANCIAL WATCHDOGS QUESTION TREASURIES’ HAVEN STATUS
EU WEIGHS EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON US IF TRADE NEGOTIATIONS FAIL
Should be interesting- watching carefully as possible.
@Pedro
There are a lot of difficult things to clock here. Historically, when Chinese airlines (the big 3) acquired airlines they straight up bought them…leasing is a bigger opportunity now though and leasing is the preffered entry to market for all airlines now even in China. The market is simply more fluid. HNA group dissolution also threw some aircraft into the mix (preowned included). I don’t pretend to understand all the nuance.
Noise aside, if you are looking to understand the real backlog…start with lessors backed by Chinese banks…will be upfront I did not look through every bank…but not too many obvious Chinese banks in the alphebet soup.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries
The ultimate point of my original post was that banning Boeing aircraft sales in China does not change the underlying reality that is apparent in the existing backlog; Boeing was already out. The next 5 year planning cycle that produces a large Boeing order…you will have my attention. Otherwise a statement banning Boeing does not change the reality that has existed since original Max shutdown.
I get your point, but I don’t entirely agree with it.
I see from various sources that BA has a current backlog of about 140 planes for China. It may or may not be straightforward to find a new customer for these — depends on how old they are, how far their interiors have been fitted out, etc. If they have interiors, then it costs money to modify them — and BA has to pay that.
If they’re more than 2 years late — and most/all of them appear to be — then China can cancel them without penalty.
If BA had received an *order* for 140 aircraft from China, it would be big news.
Conversely, an effective *cancellation* of 140 aircraft is equally big news — it’s the same revenue increment, just negative instead of positive.
Further: what evidence do you have for Chinese aircraft orders in 5-year waves?
There was a big Airbus order from China in July 2022 — for 292 narrowbodies. Then, Cathay ordered 30 Airbus widebodies in August 2024. And China currently appears to be in advanced negotiations for more widebodies (potentially a mix of A350s and A330 neos).
Where’s the 5-year pattern there?
Boeing has already resold most of the Chinese MAX that were previously stored after the grounding. Most of those have gone to Air India Express or Akasa Air.
It seems there are about 19 MAX left at Moses Lake that were originally built for Chinese customers, plus maybe a handful in the Seattle area.
It’s been quite a while since Boeing built a MAX for China.
Looking at the MAX order book, here’s the current status for Chinese customers.
Ordered / Delivered / Not yet delivered
CDB 28 / 9 / 17
China Southern 52 / 21 / 31
Donghai 14 / 2 / 12
Greater Bay 15 / 0 / 15
Minsheng 14 / 2 / 12
Okay 7 / 0 / 7
Ruili 36 / 0 / 36
SMBC 109 / 28 / 81
Xiamen 15 / 14 / 1
So, that gives us 212 MAXs yet to be delivered to Chinese customers.
102 of those are for airlines, and 110 are for lessors.
There may not be many of those built — but there are certainly Chinese 787s being built, or sitting out in the parking lot.
LN 1237, 1241, 1270 currently appear to be on the line.
LN 1053, 1073 and 1088 (for example) are out in the parking lot.
At the end of the day, any reduction in the order book is lost revenue.
Opportunity costs!!!
From the LA Times linked below:
“China is the biggest customer of Airbus, which is scheduled to deliver 136 planes to China this year, 148 next year and a total of 850 over the coming decade.”
If you believe that BA/BCA, like Nvidia and AMD, should give up their markets in China, you should work out the long-term consequences, lower R&D spending, less risky bets, less competitive in the long run.
@TW
Yeah decoupling is good news for a BA fan? Think again.
On decoupling:
I wonder if/when Trump and his cronies will attempt to block AB deliveries to China, e.g. via an attempted ban on LEAP engine exports.
If/when that happens, all hell will break loose, and de-coupling will go into overdrive.
Refer, in this regard, to what I posted here about Safran’s new turbine part plant in France.
And I suspect we’ll soon be hearing about a migration away from Kinston for AB fuselage work.
What if China ban REE export? I don’t understand why so many think self-immolation is a good choice to promote!
They may even start a war in the middle east, soon!
Sorry, my post is not directed at you. I’m pretty open to any discussion, just don’t mix in ideology unnecessary.
There can be exaggeration played up by the news media so I look for further clarifications.
Trump fired a tariff torpedo at China — and hit Boeing right between the eyes
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-04-17/trump-fired-a-tariff-torpedo-at-china-and-hit-boeing-right-between-the-eyes
> This is a tariff policy we’ve been told will solve the fentanyl crisis, get rid of illegal immigration, rescue the budget deficit, solve bilateral trade deficits and cure toe fungus….Actually we’re serving none of those goals. — Economist Justin Wolfers
> The Chinese ban plainly hit Trump in the solar plexus. After the ban was reported Tuesday, Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to grouse that China “just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will ‘not take possession’ of fully committed to aircraft.”
If that’s so, Trump has no one to blame but himself. Boeing’s plight is just one aspect of a White House tariff policy that increasingly resembles, as Shakespeare might have put it, “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
> To take just a couple of those goals Wolfers enumerated — reducing the budget deficit and shrinking bilateral trade deficits — neither can be achieved by prompting trading partners to shut down or defer purchases from a domestic exporter as weighty as Boeing.
> These events opened a window on Boeing’s greater malady, the collapse of its traditions of superb engineering and rigorous quality control and the company’s conversion into a finance-oriented behemoth that, as it happened, made neither profits nor trustworthy products.
This Air Current article contains some interesting tid-bits of info on the current status of BA deliveries to China:
https://theaircurrent.com/china/trump-china-tariffs-737-max-return-seattle-hainan-xiamen/
The article suggests — as do other sources — that there was/is no official “edict” from the Chinese government as regards refusing BA planes; instead, that decision appears to be purely enacted at airline level, based purely on tariffs…just as with Delta and Ryanair.
Thx. Pretty much align with my thoughts.
It’s very interesting to look at the Planespotters production lists for the A320/321neo family versus the 737 MAX, and concentrate thereby on the latest pages, which show frames on the line.
In the case of the A320/321neo, you see frames for customers from around the world.
But, in the case of the 737 MAX, a huge majority of frames is for US airlines.
Looks like there’s very little foreign optake currently baked into the cake.
Yet another quarterly loss expected at Boeing:
“Wall Street analysts expect Boeing to post quarterly loss of $1.55 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 37.2%. Revenues are expected to be $19.17 billion, up 15.7% from the year-ago quarter.”
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2450559/what-analyst-projections-for-key-metrics-reveal-about-boeing-ba-q1-earnings
Amost $20B in revenue — but not a cent in earnings.
And, yet, there are analysts (and commenters here) who like to tell us that BA’s order book is worth a fortune!
BA has become a lender-subsidized jobs program.
And then there’s this:
“Russia Asks to Buy Boeing Jets With Frozen Funds”
“Russia has requested the United States let it purchase Boeing aircraft using its frozen assets after a ceasefire agreement has been reached, an anonymous source from Moscow told Bloomberg.
“The proposal — while not a formal condition to end the war — could serve as an offramp for de-escalation and renewed diplomacy with the United States.”
“When asked about the proposal, National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said, “The U.S. will not discuss any economic commitments until a ceasefire has been reached.”
“Boeing also declined to comment, and the Kremlin did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/russia-boeing-ukraine/2025/04/16/id/1207208/
Vlad evidently knows which buttons to press to grab Donnie’s interest.
@Abalone
Still trying to google my way to describing how Chinese state airlines buy their aircraft. I only know from tangential business experience and TW describes it better than I did. Perhaps Scott has some deeper insight. As it relates to Russian aviation ambitions I prefer to read what is not said. Europe is not letting Putin off the hook anytime soon (Airbus) and Russia has a low enough confidence in deliveries guarantees that is not hitching onto the C919. Let alone the MC-21 which nobody talks about with it’s domestic powerplant.
I interpret Russia’s proposal — if indeed true — as 100% intended to flatter Trump.
It’s timed to coincide with the Chinese “ban” on Boeing — giving Trump an escape channel to try to turn a loss into a (faux) victory. Iran might try a similar trick, as part of its ongoing nuclear talks.
The deal would essentially cost Russia nothing — in effect, it’s assumed for some time now that those frozen assets are gone for good, e.g. will be used to pay war reparations to Ukraine.
If an aircraft deal did go ahead, I think there would be many/predominantly widebodies in the mix, since Russia doesn’t have a modern widebody in its portfolio.
I don’t share your negative attitude to the PD-14: the Russians are technically accomplished as regards aviation — just look at their military and space programs. In essence, all they need to address is organizational in nature. Previous failures with the Sukhoi Superjet should not be automatically extrapolated to the MC-21 — things have changed in Russia in the meantime.
—
As regards China: does it matter what the machinations behind the order process are? All that ultimately matters is the outcome.
Some commenters here like to present an outdated, “reds-under-the-beds” narrative as regards China, Russia, Vietnam, etc. — but it’s just a resentful, reflexive PR stunt that has little to no bearing on today’s reality. They’re just beating a dusty old drum that they got in school back in the 1950s. Anyone who has visited modern-day China or Vietnam can see that they’ve transformed beyond recognition — but it suits a certain US-centric nostalgia to try to portray them otherwise.
@Abalone
I always enjoy our back and forth. You present a great logic for an external (non Russian sphere of influence) airline. I would be concerned about a change of administration blowing up in Putins face. I go to great lengths to never speak about politics here, but I will point out one hard reality. When you have government that rules by executive orders instead of congressional action, you are one one election away from finding yourself on the bad end of owning expensive paper weights. The life cycle of an aircraft exceeds that of a presidential election cycle.
The risks associated with the fickle nature of US politics have given rise to a huge de-coupling from the US. Just look at what’s now in motion in Europe, Canada and China.
As I already said, those Russian Boeings would essentially be free — so there’s far less risk involved.
@Casey
Maybe this isn’t widely reported in the US.
To see how bad it really is—FYI: FT The European Commission is issuing burner phones and basic laptops to some US-bound staff to avoid the risk of espionage
> “There is an additional risk with the US, where border staff have the right to seize visitors’ phones and computers and check their content.”
============
Wired:
Companies in the EU are starting to look for ways to ditch Amazon, Google, and Microsoft cloud services
“I would be concerned about a change of administration blowing up in Putins face.”
For the Russian government ( and any other at that ) interaction with the US compares to talking to asylum inmates on deranged trips of grandeur.
What changes if the inmates assign a new speaker to the lesser ?
@Casey:
I think a different take on Russia is that as soon as Ukraine is settled, the doors go wide open again. I see too much greed and governments not willing to stick to a long policy. Oil and gas buy at the least. I even wonder how long the defense buildup lasts. Germany justified its wholesale jump into the Russian bed and stuck with it regardless of the 2014 Invasion, MH shoot-down. I am not picking on German, its an example. The US has done the same thing or worse with China. Its gets to be an ecosystem and you saw how embedded German politicians were in it even after the 2nd invasion. Again its just an example of the means justifying the end which is all about money.
Russia will never buy a C919. It goes against the same thing China has going, they in turn will never buy a MC-21. The MC-21 seems to be a very modern aircraft vs a me to C919. Its going to be a long time before Russia can replace the systems and its going to depend on money if they can get into any serious serial production.
Both China and even more so Russia can build engines. But its going to take a long time before either one has a reliable, low maint, efficient and good time on wing engine.
The Russian China alignment is a convenience to China and a have to for Russia. Long term China wants Siberia and Russia is never going to grow and fill that vast emptiness. China has the population to fill her right up.
It will be in steps. Russia could in fact cede the Armur River basin to China in exchange for other support.
The 929 is no longer a joint project and never was going to be, China wanted the tech, not Russia. So its this amorphous whatever flavor of the day they want it to be as a Government goal to someday compete with Airbus (and Boeing if they are still around).
Does the 919 join the ARJ as a hindsight then?
@TW
The MC 21 had an opportunity to have an export market. I think that died when the reality of sanctions kicked in. A great deal of attention is paid by airlines towards support. Hard to imagine any airline willing to bet their existence on an ecosystem that is entirely based on Russia. Even the C919 puts an operator at the mercy of a Chinese supplier base. Airbus is not European and Boeing is not American. Those are two global companies.
The C929 is a thought experiment. Only a handful of airlines move to widebody and I can only ever see a “few” airlines ever seriously considering that aircraft. You need to be either be large or state sponsored.
I disagree as regards the C929 — I think China is working in earnest on that plane, and on its engine (CJ-2000). I suspect that we’ll be surprised by the project’s speed and sophistication — as we were last month by the J-36.
COMAC already has a regional jet (C909) and mainline narrowbody (C919). Logical to complete the set with a widebody (C929) — and maybe even a supersonic passenger plane.
Plenty of potential customers for the C929 — not just in China and Asia, but also in the ME, Africa and South America.
The Chinese have been working on the C929 since 2017 and had preliminary production equipment in place for a couple years. Its not a experiment, its part of Chinese government 5 year plans. My guess with developing CJ2000 engines, no later than 2030 for first flight
Here are some pics
https://english.news.cn/20250306/9e5d80e4b59c411a8315715299a5e82b/c.html
@All
I have no doubt China can make that plane. I just only see about five logical operators. The Big 3, Lion Air, VietJet maybe. Gets pretty thin after that.
@Casey:
I am going to present a different view.
If China could have built it, they would have. The could not nor currently cannot (ergo all the PR or as they say, all show and no go)
The 929 started out with a lot of Russian tech in composites as well as Western Engines and systems.
In short, it was going to be a show piece that China said was proof of we have arrived, when in fact totally not. The 919 was the same (as well as the pathetic work on international certification they ignored the process needed for). Not easy, MRJ failed and they were trying hard.
China can work around it, but then its another 15 years away and you keep seeing what their target aircraft is, change. Every time you do that its a re-design.
Yes they can and are making advances and improvements on engines, but that odes not mean they are economically viable engines.
Airbus and Boeing have had a number of Trans Pacific and Atlantic engines fail and the other engine got them to a diversion.
The 929 has to be able to do THAT before it has any viability and it needs to have internationally recognized certification to fly anywhere but within a few specific Asian countries (what few routes they have pretty much are filled by the 919) – diversion airports are not that far away.
Abalone makes a big deal out of the latest prototype jets (be they fighter and bombers). China can cobble anything together and he knows nothing about what thy are aimed for or at or just trying stuff.
If you don’t know what they are supposed to do, you can assess anything and its 10 years before it becomes obvious.
The US did that in the 50s and early 60s, a plethora of types that never went into production.
The one has a 3 engine design. They don’t have enough go pup for a two engine design. A dead end experimental type.
Equally they don’t have to satisfy commercial requirements, just military ones and no one knows that those are.
It does not mean they are not learning, but the B-58 Hustler did not have a long lived nor viable career.
@All
Had never done this but took the liberty of looking up backlog of Big 3 (combing variants for simplicity)
CSN-P: 71 A320neo, 37 737Max, 2 787, 1 C909, 102 C919
CSN-C: none
ACA-P: 60 A320neo, 4 737Max, 1 C909, 102 C919
ACA-C: 4 A330, 1 B777F
ACA-VIP: none
CES-P: 76 A320neo, 7 B737Max, 6 B787, 14 C909, 95 C919
The C909 jumps out as having a weak stated backlog with only CES among the Big 3. I would expect further orders soon as I have heard of maybe half of the other airlines in backlog and given the preponderance of accepted tails to the Big 3…at least enough to maintain a 3/mo production pace.
The C919…Big 3 have gone all in. Airbus orders a high function, B737Max barely with any backlog. Big 3 have taken 16 aircraft so far through 3 year (2025 telegraphed at 75 deliveries or 6.25/mo). 1005 total aircraft in backlog with a stated intent to deliver 150/year by 2028…7 – 9 years of backlog by my guess if COMAC hits its production target. Have to believe the Big 3 will get priority if production falls short. Secondary airline orders left to scramble for their own.
The C929…there is a launch order from ACA…but not a quantity or EIS date. That announcement is fresh (Nov 2024). Best guess would be around 2030, but that is me throwing a dart at a board. The Big 3 are highly exposed to mid-size aircraft if they are seeking new.
The C939…still an idea. Even more exposed here.
Final answer…C909 needs more orders from Big 3 for viability of backlog. Secondary C919 operators need to seek a Plan B. Mid-size and up…everyone needs to get on the phone to Airbus or nose around the secondary market.
This of serious interest. Not only holding on to what they have but the number of Boeing two national airlines had on order.
https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/mro/china-southern-halts-sale-of-aircraft-amidst-tariff-uncertainty/
This makes for some interesting reading.
https://archive.ph/lZHb5
Not sure what mechanical means in the context of Airbus, hydraulic maybe.
Light Aircraft rudder is used through flight but jets are a jump. I would think that is a hard conversion when you get used to using rudder then its not allowed.
It would seem a lockout on Airbus, curious about Boeing as I have not read of rudder incidents with it let alone breaking the Vertical tail off (New York, A300 or 330)
LMAO
3 March 1991, UA585, 737-200
8 Sep 1994, US427, 737-300
The National Transportation Safety Board determined that the incidents were the result of a design flaw that could result in an uncommanded movement of the aircraft’s rudder.
As per norm sadly, you flip into diversion.
The two crashes had nothing to do with commanded inputs and all to do with a failure in the hydraulic control.
The posted is not talking about non commanded. Its the use of commanded and the possible consequences that have not been Lawed out of even Airbus.
Read what you wrote:
> “.. curious about Boeing as I have not read of rudder incidents”
===========
CBC: U.S. warns 40 foreign operators may be flying Boeing 737s with rudder issue
It’s impossible?
> The future of air mobility is taking flight
https://x.com/catl_official/status/1912808255514198218
> The Federal Aviation Administration is facing new scrutiny about its decisions following two incidents where smoke filled the interior of Boeing 737 MAX planes
“The FAA is being investigated over its failure to take immediate corrective actions after the incidents, raising concerns about its risk management, response protocols, and oversight of emerging safety issues tied to engine design. The ongoing audit by the Department of Transportation’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) will examine whether the FAA adequately addressed these serious safety concerns.”
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/southwest-airlines-faces-safety-scrutiny-as-faa-investigated-over-2023-cabin-air-quality-events-involving-toxic-fumes-and-bird-strikes/
—
Yet another reason for COMAC customers to completely ignore the FAA — as if the MAX fiasco and subsequent litany of QC escapes weren’t already enough in that regard.
Reminds me of a recent Bloomberg opinion piece that called the FAA and the EASA “the gold-standard”. 🙄
This is an offshoot of the behind the paywall. I was interested as its yet another offering that is not going to go anywhere.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/natilus-horizon-blended-wing-aircraft-spc/index.html
Of severe abuse of a situation, the comments about computers and the MAX crashes is stooping beyond low.
All aircraft now use computers and their would be no different (well at least the vaporware concept of it).
MAX crashes were not about computer or computer control (Airbus is totally dependent on computers), its the design base (failure of a minimum of two inputs to execute a program) cherry picking failure data of AOA and then writing the program that continued to grow beyond sanity.
Airbus in my opinion has done a good job on Auto Throttle and Boeing had done a horrid job in that it could turn off as a secondary aspect of another flight mode (FLCH). Both are computer programs, Airbus is written how you want it and Boeing (at the time) was not and it was known issue.
Net Zero has done a far better job of laying out their aircraft whether or not it reaches production.
Natalis is another smoke job that we will see fade.
@Abalone
“.. full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
The Bloomberg report is more or less “bogus”??
Reuters:
> .. industry sources said the status of rules remained unclear.
> Airline and aerospace industry sources said there was no confirmation of a formal ban on Boeing deliveries.. but that the imposition of tariffs would effectively block imports for the time being. [As I’ve said above.]
> ** two U.S. industry sources said they were given no clear instructions not to ship parts to China. A separate source, who runs a maintenance and repair shop for aircraft in China, said they have not had any issues importing American parts.**
> Boeing says China will more than double its fleet by 2043, with the country set to overtake the U.S. in terms of air traffic.
> * Industry sources say a significant portion of the more than 760 unfilled orders for which Boeing has yet to name a buyer are for China. *
Quite likely there’s a lot of motivated perception here, many saw what they want to see
@Pedro
Very unclear, isn’t it?
There may be issues of (mis)translation involved.
And, of course, there may be deliberare mis-reporting by parties with a vested interest. Trump was very quick to shout that the Chinese had reneged on a deal — suspiciously quick, one might say.
One way or another: BA has pulled MAXs out of its Chinese finishing center and flown them back to the US — regardless of precisely *why* that happened.
Trump really is doing his best to ensure that the US has empty store shelves jn May:
“Trump administration announces fees on Chinese ships docking at U.S. ports”
“Steep levies on Chinese-made ships arriving at U.S. ports have been proposed, up to as much as $1.5 million, as part of a plan to bring more ship manufacturing back to the U.S., a policy which has bipartisan support.”
“The fees will be charged once per voyage and not per port, as originally proposed.”
“The fee will be charged up to five times per year, per vessel. The register did not break out the price per container.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/17/trump-administration-announces-fees-on-chinese-ships-docking-at-us-ports.html
—
On a related note:
“Trade war: China ‘completely’ stops buying liquefied gas from the US”
“The renewed blockade could have lasting effects, particularly as it pushes China to deepen its energy ties with Russia and casts uncertainty over the future of major LNG infrastructure developments in the US and Mexico.”
““There will be long-term consequences,” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a gas specialist at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.
“I do not think Chinese LNG importers will ever contract any new US LNG.””
https://tribuneonlineng.com/trade-war-china-completely-stops-buying-liquefied-gas-from-the-us/
Some interesting background info:
“Another worrying indicator is shipbuilding capacity. Commercial shipbuilding in the U.S. is virtually nonexistent: in 2022, the U.S. built just five oceangoing commercial ships, compared to China’s 1,794 and South Korea’s 734. The U.S. Navy estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times our own. It costs roughly twice as much to build a ship in the U.S. as it does elsewhere. The commercial shipbuilders that do exist only survive thanks to protectionist laws like the Jones Act, which serve to prop up an industry which is uncompetitive internationally.”
“U.S. shipbuilders have struggled to compete in the commercial market since roughly the Civil War. Outside of a few narrow windows, the U.S. has never been a major force in international shipping. The situation we face today, with U.S. ships costing at least twice as much to build as ships built elsewhere, is not a recent development; it’s been the norm for at least the past 100 years.”
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-cant-the-us-build-ships
Donnie seems to think that he can turn this around on a dime…🙈
How come European shipyards are humming — 300 ships per year, despite Asian dominance in this industry?
Nobody know more about ship building than Trump. He keeps telling us!
Or expert TW!
The invaluable solution provider, in an instant!
Careful, Pedro.
Hamilton
Scott:
I perceive no insult though the sarcasm is there.
I think its worth commenting on being off base in that I don’t provide solutions. Sometimes possibles but true solutions are elusive and very in the weeds tech which I am not. Bjorns corner is a case in point, he has lost me on the latest emissions end.
I don’t see any answers except in the area of offsets. Reduce CO and NOX someplace else for what you can’t help produce.
Certainly far from an expert but I have followed aviation from age 4 on (murky memories from before that)
Aviation was why my dad had the job in Alaska he did and it was and still is the heartbeat of Alaska.
You have to have lived that 50s and 60s bush existence to understand it.
Its changed but its still the mainstay of linking all Alaska (no roads to speak of and certainly for the size because its an extremly low population density outside one larger and 3-4 small cities (or towns)
So yea, I grew up in that transition from Prop jobs of the ultimate in the Constellations and then jets.
So not an expert but certainly knowledgeable and I believe intelligent. I taught myself electrics, eleconics and mechanical engineering. No letters but certainly a practical understanding and application with answers in my areas of expertise, either to fix it or make corrections to a problem.
“How come European shipyards are humming — 300 ships per year, despite Asian dominance in this industry?”
Not in reality. We manage.
The activity is concentrated in special use shipping.
For Germany we have “Meyer Werft” big in the cruise ships market. They have near perfect coordination of workforce and subcontractors. They prefer people that have more than one job qualification.
Qualified workforce is a major issue in the US.
Same for qualified and sane management beyond.
Rather than look for a niche, they now want to turn back the clock, a few decades at least, to build ultra large box ships, LNG ships, ro-ro etc — basically everything under the sun — all in three years! They can’t wait, but without a plan or how it’ll work out, just command from the top -— is this the soviet planned economy so many here like to talk about??
3years and in the US?
ambitious, for sure.
The port fees/levies start in 2028.
Recent (much smaller) box ships built in the US took at least five years from order to delivery. The US shipyards have never built any ultra large box ships before!
It’s going to come back and bite their behind I guess.
One way to avoid is to move containers to smaller ships in MX or Peru or Panama bound for the US. That adds time and cost. If Americans are determined to choke off trade, they can, but their manufacturing will also go down with that.
@ Pedro
Actually, the port fees start just 6 months from now (in October), and increase in increments up to 2028.
LNG carriers are currently exempted — but they will also be levied from 2028 onward.
—
787 fuselage portions are brought to the US by ship…I wonder where the ships in question were built?
—
Even though the levies don’t kick in immediately, I suspect we’ll start to see disruption quite quickly, as freight planners re-direct shipments to serve other ports and customers. Why bother with the expense and hassle of US ports when there are hassle-free importers elsewhere?
Now we see the brilliance of that new port in Chancay, Peru, which completely cuts out the (former) need for shipments to Peru via US ports.
?787 fuselage sections, transport medium.?
IMU via the Dreamlifter converted 747 by air.
A320 parts to mobile go via marine shipping.
BBC Atlantic class built in China 🙂
there is a new line of ships in the works with
aux Flettner Rotor propulsion.
https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/airbus-renewing-ocean-transport-vessel-fleet-to-assist-a320neo-ramp-up-demand/155534.article
@Abalone
Hi, from what I read online, the port fees can be suspended if a vessel owner orders an equivalent ship as the Chinese-built ship from a US shipyard. But the fees are due immediately if delivery of the US-built ship doesn’t happen *within three years*.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Go1X_M2X0AAREtj?format=png&name=large
But I believe, this is more like hogwash because: the US shipyards lack capabilities that it can go from 0 to 100 now, the US currently doesn’t have to supply chain ready to support such endeavor, there’s a shortage of skilled labor for such an aggressive ramp up.
Not sure any shipyards are eager to accept such orders if there’re fines for delay. It can bankrupt them like what happened to Toshiba/Westinghouse.
@ Pedro
In addition to what you point out, one must remember that a ship built in the US will be at least twice the price of the same ship built elsewhere.
Who’s going to submit to that level of hassle? It’s just not worth it — much cheaper and easier to pursue markets elsewhere…particularly with a rapidly-growing middle class in the Global South.
Let importers in the US bear the cost and headache of arranging shipment. And if they don’t want to, they can just accept empty shelves.
Shipping companies just put an $18/ton shipping surcharge for shipments to the US and pay the surcharge. Every company is affected because all large shipping companies will have at least 1 China built ship. And for those exceptions who are not affected, it is just a nice way of adding some margin.
You can not justify increase shipping cost if you start buying US ships and your baseline costs go up, but a surcharge for shipping to the US is easy to justify and all other major competitors have the same issue, the same way fuel surcharges are adjusted whenever the fuel prices go up.
Yah – there’s a couple of fairly easy work-arounds, both of which involve added costs to the US importer.
1) Shipping costs just got higher, paid for by the importer (US based), if the ship has to stop in the US – service charge.
2) Ports in Canada and Mexico, will see increased activity, as ship owners with Chinese built ship unload containers in the port of Vancouver, Montreal, and near Rosarito, near Tijuana – then containers are shipped in bond, to be cleared into the US.
Tariffs must be paid on goods at any port of entry, whether by land, air or sea. Makes no difference.
—————-
Side note:
I have a good friend, who works for a large fish importer, here in Canada. He gets shipments from South America (Chile) which fly in by aircraft to Miami, then are bonded through to Canada, 3 times a week, by truck.
His boss is now looking at just having the charter stop and fuel somewhere in the Caribbean, then flying direct to Canada, avoiding the US altogether.
Business is going to avoid having to deal with the US and the mess that it is…
Sounds like what Brexit did to Irish trade with mainland Europe: Irish trucks used to go to France via the UK (short ferry hop + Channel Tunnel), but now they just avoid the UK altogether, and take longer ferry journeys directly to France.
Also, the French now no longer bother importing Scottish shellfish (too much paperwork / customs hassle) and source their shellfish from Ireland and Spain instead.
This type of re-shuffling is going to happen on a much larger scale in the case of the US.
p.s. Is anyone in Canada talking about sending oil/LNG from the west coast to Europe via the polar route, once summer comes?
https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+northeast+passage+oil+lng
YES.
In the works for some years already.
https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+tankers+iceclass
Guess why the US is throwing its weight around the Arctic.
Not the US. Donnie
“Vietnam approves operation of China’s COMAC passenger jets”
“Investing.com — Vietnam’s government announced on Monday that it has given the green light for the operation of passenger jets manufactured by China’s COMAC. This decision comes after the Southeast Asian nation approved the use of aircraft that have been certified by Chinese aviation regulators.
“This approval opens up the Vietnamese market for China’s COMAC passenger jets, allowing them to operate within the country. The move comes as part of Vietnam’s ongoing efforts to diversify its aviation industry and increase its range of aircraft providers.
“The Vietnamese government did not provide further details about when the COMAC jets would begin operations in the country. The approval, however, marks a significant milestone for China’s COMAC in its efforts to expand its footprint in the international aviation market.”
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/vietnam-approves-operation-of-chinas-comac-passenger-jets-93CH-3983449
“China strengthens commercial aircraft co-op with Southeast Asian nations, with Malaysia Airlines reportedly considering C909, C919, C929 purchase”
“Vietnamese budget airline VietJet Air plans to commence COMAC C909 operations starting Saturday after it sold tickets for flights on the Hanoi-Con Dao and Ho Chi Minh City-Con Dao routes”
From the Straits Times article that I posted above:
““Comac has also stockpiled engines to build dozens of planes IN 2025…”
““Comac’s engine stockpile is largely due to the fact it has been anticipating orders later in 2025 from Hong Kong, Middle East and Vietnamese carriers, one of the people said.””
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-stares-down-boeing-parts-shortage-while-comac-stockpiles
Interesting to see reference to Middle East carriers…who could that be?
Of course, once the CJ-1000A is ready, China can supply the C919 to Iran.
What happens to all those Chinese Airline orders?
Could it possibly be they don’t want the 919 and happily giving up their slots?
And yea, even producing 10 a year, you need dozens of engines including the spares.
For the non China states they can make big eyes and gain favor while not costing them anything.
C919 -As of 2018, they had production equipment/tooling to produce 4 a month rate. “Assuming” they duplicated the tooling and automation equipment (in the last 7 years), they are probably already for 8 a month rate
As a note, the C909, they had an Chinese company design and install robotic final assembly line which was completed by 2020. They use the C909 as their test bed for advancing R&D in mfg. (not like FAUB)
ARJ 21 (C909) FAL production line #1 video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET86M6IqXzI
@ David
The C919 line planning for this year was 75 frames — representing 6.25 units per month. But wasn’t that recently doubled?
When the Straits Times article refers to “stockpiled engines”, I’m wondering if that includes CJ-1000As? I imagine it does.
—
That video of the C909 production line is 5 years old — I’m sure it has expanded since then.
They have started the construction of a second production line in Shanghai which brings the production capacity to 150-200 C919 aircraft per year. The construction contract was awarded in May last year.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3261897/chinas-c919-aircraft-roll-line-faster-developer-expands-capacity-reliance-engine-imports-risks?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article
“What happens to all those Chinese Airline orders?”
Must be vaporware 😂
“Could it possibly be they don’t want the 919 and happily giving up their slots?”
Sure Jan. You’re so right. Others must be wrong.
Alternative explanation:
Like Boeing, they keep selling 777X even though no one knows when they can deliver?
“And yea, even producing 10 a year, you need dozens of engines including the spares.”
Great insight. There’s a wide spread engine shortage. Sure COMAC will belly up in no time once the US flexes its muscle just like the little Canadian firm Bombardier. Now you can relax, have peace and some rest.
“For the non China states they can make big eyes and gain favor while not costing them anything.”
Yup. Why would anyone outside China order since the aircraft doesn’t have the “gold-standard” approval of the FAA or EASA?? What a great mystery. Do you have an answer? 🤔
Has Vietjet received their first 737 MAX from Boeing yet? Hmmm…
👇👇🙄
> VietJet has agreed to buy 200 Boeing 737 MAX jets in a deal first signed in 2016 and revised afterwards, but no jet has yet been delivered.
He said, she said they said.
Reality is how many are being produced.
We have a pretty good idea on Boeing and the MAX, something around 30 a month. That does not count the inventory that was not delivered and is being pulled out of storage.
The reality is 919 production will come to a halt (unless exemptions are made though I expect the US will back down and then China will)
Will any airline take an airline with Indochinese engines? C909 is GE and the 919 is CFM.
Boeing employees don’t trust senior leadership and don’t feel their contributions are recognized or valued, according to the results of an internal survey that CEO Kelly Ortberg shared at staff meetings this week
Boeing’s ‘give a damn’ approach to changing its culture
https://x.com/seattletimes/status/1912922227319746996
for the sake of variety…
I am sure US airlines will “welcome” this statement from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
“Visiting America is not an entitlement. It is a privilege extended to those who respect our laws and values. And, as secretary of state, I will never forget that. U.S. law lays out clear rules about who can and cannot come to the United States. ..it continues
“An Axios report added that international tourism to the U.S. is “falling fast,” and the jobs associated with the industry “are being threatened.” Looking solely at German tourists, the number of visitors dropped 28% in March 2025 as compared to March 2024.”
“The number of cross-border travelers going from Canada to the U.S. dropped by nearly 900,000 in March compared to the same month last year … easily one of the worst year-over-year drops recorded outside of the COVID-19 health crisis.”
The more the crunch its high profile industries the sooner the madness gets stopped.
After Rome was burnt down?
Don’t you think President Donald Trump is aware of what he’s doing and the economy? Doesn’t he want to fire Powell? Isn’t that clear enough??
“In the long term, why would companies and other countries decide to invest in the US, which has upended the global economic order in just weeks? The United States moved from a stable economy, a trusted partner in trade agreements and global security, to a source of confusion and doubt in mere weeks after Trump assumed office on January 20.”
“Perhaps no one has put it more bluntly than Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on Wednesday, when she said to a news outlet in Germany: “The West as we knew it no longer exists.”
“There was a sharp fall in summer bookings to the US from some cities, with Amsterdam down by 23.2 per cent, Munich by 20.3 per cent, Athens by 16.1 per cent and Barcelona by 15.2 per cent. Bookings from Heathrow were down by 14.7 per cent.”
Dysfunctional activities in the US border control/entry are not really new.
But it gets more media exposure now. Media and forces behind them are not Trump friendly. 🙂
Previous more press was provided for innocent bystander tourists getting shot ( by perps, by police ) and putting preschoolers into prison for incomprehensible reasons.
Rubio:
It’s a privilege, not a right!
Who would enjoy an accidental one-way trip to El Salvador for free?
Wonder what CFO West is going to say next Wednesday, to continue the impossible task of painting a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow:
We’ll continue to sell to customers everywhere, incl China, blah blah blah
777-9 is great, progress very very well on its “next stage” flight tests…
Everything look great when sitting at the top, never a bad report caught my attention…
Our customers are begging us for more 737 MAX etc.
And since West has been talking about making the MAX at 30-plus-ish per month since, check note, 2023, so I won’t be surprised if he says BA has already reached the rate of “30-plus” per month!
> Boeing had optimistically aimed for jumping MAX rates from the current 31 a month…
Another question I have is when is the public accountants of BA going to awake and realize that BA is permanently shut out of 20% of the market and question BA’s assumptions of accounting blocks in its program accounting, this year, or next?
Of partial relevance: see my Gulf News posting below 👀
This link contains some really interesting info:
“Tariffs could lift Boeing and Airbus plane prices even higher”
“New York: Commercial plane prices, already lifted in recent years due to pandemic supply chain shocks, are poised to climb further as Boeing and Airbus are buffeted by trade tariffs.
“Compared with 2018, prices for commercial jets have risen by around 30 percent,” an aviation expert told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“The American and European aerospace giants have grappled with higher expenses for primary materials such as titanium, components and energy, as well as overall labor cost pressures.
“Richard Aboulafia, managing director at consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, said items that have inflated “at a particularly high rate” include castings, forgings and “anything titanium… especially since all that Russian capacity has been cut off from the US and, to a lesser extent, from Europe.”
“Aboulafia estimates prices for materials and equipment have risen 40 percent since 2021. That’s before Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are used in planes.
“It’s kind of ironic, raw materials were not a problem, but Donald Trump is determined to make them a problem,” Aboulafia said.
“Inflation in aviation has been accelerating, and “that’s only going to get worse with these tariffs that are being imposed,” agreed John Persinos, editor-in-chief at Aircraft Value News. “These tariffs are disastrous.””
***
“In February, Japanese carrier ANA ordered 77 planes from Boeing, Airbus and Brazilian firm Embraer, providing updated catalogue prices that show an increase from earlier levels.
The order priced Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner at around $386 million and the 737 MAX at $159 million, compared with $292 million and $121.6 million in 2023, according to AFP calculations.
“It priced the Airbus A321neo at around $148 million compared with the $129.5 million in the 2018 catalogue.”
https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/tariffs-could-lift-boeing-and-airbus-plane-prices-even-higher-1.500099491
So, the derived catalogue price of an A321neo ($148M) is now less than that of a 737 MAX-8 ($159M).
And, yet, after customary discounts, Airbus can make a profit on that, but Boeing can’t.
And that was *before* Donnie’s new tariffs kicked in on US imports of aluminium and steel…so the pricing/margin situation is only going to become worse for BA.
***
And if a 787-9 now costs almost $400M, then what’s the new price on a 777X…?
Airbus and Boeing “list prices” are not directly comparable because they include different equipments. I think the A321 price does not include engines (because there’s a choice), whereas the 737-8 price does.
There’s no way that Airbus is actually charging less for an A321 than Boeing is for a 737-8.
According to the Aviatas book value, a Max 8 has a base value of $55.1m. A321Neo is $64.5.
Standard, run of the mill, average aircraft, with seats and engines.
IMU list prices are a market positioning tool.
Here Boeing PR states
that a 737 MAX-8 is superior to an A321neo 🙂
Adaption to reality happens in the rebates section of aircraft purchase.
BA has $60B in debt to pay off — and it hasn’t managed to produce positive EBIT in years.
It doesn’t seem to be able to meaningfully reduce costs — so its only option is to increase pricing.
Pretty funny that one day its Boeing selling below cost and the next increasing pricing on aircraft they can’t sell!
But then take it out of context.
The issue is not Boeing production costs, its stock buy back and dividends (when there is a huge loss, borrow the money to pay it).
Boeing made lots of money, they threw it all at shareholders and nothing for the company.
Management wise its grossly stupid but the icnentive is there to do exactly that because the managers make more money the higher the share value.
The board is supposed to stop that but they are guilty as management is.
And Boeing has undercut Airbus on pricing. We know that because Airbus complained Boeing was not playing fair.
The reality is Boeing has had an issue with management, its rolled over to impact on the Aircraft (company as a whole).
Anyone going on list prices does not understand the industry.
could this be the future of US industries as the current Administration wants to decouple from the global economy?
An unexpected Trump ripple: Britain nationalizes its last steel mill
“But Britain has seized control of the factory once again, through a rare emergency vote by Parliament last week. Scunthorpe now finds itself at the center of the latest global trade clashes, squeezed by tariff turmoil, the fading fortunes of globalization and a growing dilemma faced by European economies: whether to court China, or be wary of it.”
“… to court China, or be wary of it…”
Europe and China have been trading for 3000 years — the Silk Road arose from that trade.
There have been many ups and downs, but they’ve always been sorted out.
Unfortunately, it looks as if the transatlantic relationship is not going to demonstrate similar longevity.
***
Nationalizations are going to become more commonplace in the age of de-globalization — they’re inevitable in situations where a non-competitive sector nevertheless has to be kept alive for reasons of self-sufficiency.
“China Fires Up World’s First Thorium-Powered Nuclear Reactor”
This type of reactor has many advantages:
– More abundant fuel (thorium);
– Intrinsically safe as regards thermal risk;
– Produces ca. 100 times less waste;
– Waste has a 100-times-shorter half life.
https://futurism.com/china-thorium-nuclear-power
The Chinese will now make an export product of this: “we pay for your minerals and metals in yuan, and you then use those yuan to pay for MSRs that we’ll construct for you in your country”.
No dollars involved, energy independence for the Global South, and decimation of the US fracking boom.
MSRs are being studied for implementation in the EU…but the Chinese already have them up and running…
meanwhile in the US “Trump’s tariffs push ‘drill, baby, drill’”
And, in a wonderful stroke of irony, the multi-faceted uncertainty he has created has caused oil prices to drop to a level where it is not viable for US (frack) producers to pump oil.
“Stall, baby, stall”
> DHL to suspend global shipments of over $800 to US consumers
DHL blamed the halt on new US customs rules which require formal entry processing on all shipments worth over $800.
Fewer flights, fewer aircraft?
#2025EasterEgg
get ready for empty shelves starting in June
“The impact of the diminished freight container traffic to North America will be significant”
“If each sailing was carrying 8,000 to 10,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), that would equal a decline in freight traffic of between 640,000-800,000 containers”.”
And imports to China from the US have also flatlined:
“China Axes Imports of Most U.S. Commodities in Escalating Trade War”
“-China’s LNG imports from the U.S. fell to zero in March.
-Imports of other U.S. commodities, including wheat and cotton, also saw significant declines.
-The reductions are attributed to escalating trade and tariff tensions between the U.S. and China.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Axes-Imports-of-Most-US-Commodities-in-Escalating-Trade-War.html
There are alternatives: China signs 5-year LNG deal with the UAE
CNBC: US dollar falls to three-year low
========
CNBC: More rich Americans are opening Swiss bank accounts fearing US risks
=========
Flightradar24: Emirates reactivates its oldest Airbus A380
Second Boeing jet starts return from China, tracker shows
“A second Boeing jet intended for use by a Chinese airline was heading back to the U.S. on Monday, flight tracking data showed, in what appeared to be another victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by President Donald Trump in his global trade offensive.
The 737 MAX 8 landed in the U.S. territory of Guam on Monday, after leaving Boeing’s Zhoushan completion center near Shanghai, data from flight tracking website AirNav Radar showed.”
Boeing’s self-inflicted damage leaves it vulnerable in trade war
> The troubled U.S. aircraft maker has suffered a series of self-inflicted problems over the last few years that have added to its vulnerability to a big new problem beyond its control.
> Boeing can hardly afford the blow. Almost 70 per cent of its sales of commercial aircraft were to carriers outside the U.S., and China is the largest global market for commercial airline purchases. The company projected that Chinese airlines would buy almost 9,000 planes in the next 20 years. If Boeing is shut out of the market, the spoils will go to its main global competitor, Airbus.
> A significant contributing factor to Boeing’s problems in China stems from the company’s own quality problems, namely the worldwide grounding of its 737 Max following two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019.
> The sad reality is that Boeing still has not fixed those quality problems within its control…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-boeings-self-inflicted-damage-leaves-it-vulnerable-in-trade-war-as/
I’m going to further explore a recent incident below.
How come we missed this??
It’s hush-hush now?
> The sad reality is that Boeing still has not fixed those quality problems within its control.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration disclosed last week that it had imposed an airworthiness directive to replace bathroom door latches on more than 2,600 U.S.-registered Boeing aircraft.
The move came after the agency received a report that a passenger had been trapped in a bathroom in-flight because of a faulty door latch that could not be opened from the inside or by flight attendants on the outside.
The FAA did not disclose details of the incident, saying only that the plane was diverted for an unscheduled landing, a precaution taken because the trapped passenger could have been at risk of serious injury in an emergency such as severe turbulence or a medical issue.
The FAA estimated the replacement cost of the latches – worth almost US$500 each – on top of labour could be up to US$3.4-million. It’s a small price in dollar terms for a company as big as Boeing, but expensive in reputational capital for a company that is running low on goodwill.
If you have been following the Boeing story, you might ask, what is it about the company and door latches? They’re small parts but have become emblematic of its quality issues, causing major embarrassment and, in at least one case, a life-threatening inflight situation.
@Pedro: Unfair slam on Boeing for this one. These types of ADs and Service Bulletins happen all the time.
These are quotes from the article linked above.
=========
The issue was traced to plastic latch fatigue caused by material stress and manufacturing flaws.
==========
https://m.economictimes.com/magazines/panache/how-a-bengaluru-bound-flights-bathroom-glitch-could-turn-into-a-3-4-million-problem-for-boeing/articleshow/120376311.cms
any idea who the supplier is and where its made? probably some third tier supplier to the interior fabricator But who’s design it?
From the Economic Times:
“According to Business Insider, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), upon receiving a reports of similar incidents, proposed an airworthiness directive targeting 2,612 Boeing 737 aircraft registered in the U.S.”
@David
I wonder if Boeing decided to switch to plastic to save weight and *costs*.
I think the part numbers can be found from the AD.
What I can find:
> This proposed AD would require replacing the lavatory bifold door latch having part number (P/N) SC1L500031-3/20218-3, SC1L500031-4/20218-4, SC1L500031-5/20218-5/20218-7, or SC1L500031-6/20218-6/20218-8 with lavatory bifold door latch having P/N SC1L500031-9/20218-9 or SC1L500031-10/20218-10.
@Pedro: “the worldwide grounding of its 737 Max following two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019” was not due to any quality problem at Boeing. In fact there wasn’t anything wrong with the design of the airplane. The grounding was started by China without any technical reason given. The aviation agencies of the rest of the world followed the Pied Piper, none of them giving any technical reason for doing so. In the U.S. the FAA held off until the President, not one to shy away from making decisions about things he knows absolutely nothing about, grounded the airplane, also without giving any technical reason. The FAA then indicated concurrence with his decision, clarifying that the grounding was to see if there was an issue with the airplane. There is no record or report of any investigation or analysis being done by the FAA to determine what—if anything—was wrong with the design of the airplane. For return to service the FAA issued an AD listing changes to be made to the airplane, which for its justification stated that an unsafe condition existed on the airplane because of the potential for a runaway stabilizer condition if an AOA sensor failed. The FAA’s pathetic justification for kowtowing to political pressure and unnecessarily keeping the airplane grounded for 20 months was quite evident, given that there were—and still are—numerous other components that can fail and not only cause a runaway trim but one that is far less benign than the one enabled via MCAS. Well aware that the sustained grounding was a charade, none of the world’s aviation agencies protested the AD or the pilot training requirements, which still didn’t include any simulator training for MCAS. It’s only the media—and you—that still thinks the MAX was grounded due to “quality” problems.
Someone lives in a *very* vivid imaginary world…🙈
Here’s some light reading on the pivotal concept of single point of failure:
https://risktec.tuv.com/knowledge-bank/the-price-of-single-point-failure/
Oh, and don’t forget that it was also an indefensible mistake to give MCAS infinite overriding authority:
https://www.eetimes.com/sullenberger-mcas-exposed-a-failed-system/
Dude, whatever your day job is, please stick to it. You’re never going to make it as a fiction writer.
Yup. ‘War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.’
A Boeinginista who has not understood anything.
A Trump fan too?
remember:
closely linked crashes with no discernible cause path
on a freshly introduced type.
PAX death per mile went through the roof.
Looking back the forced by China grounding was a good thing (TM). Pushing the other cert authorities to move away from waiting for FAA action. Last one out : FAA.
The aftermath shew that FAA freeze up was not the only institutional deficiency of this agency.
final outcome was global rightsizing RE expenctations on institutional and corporate quality in the US.
for the sake of variety…
“Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem fell victim to a thief while eating dinner at a downtown Washington, DC restaurant
The thief got away with Noem’s driver’s license, medication, apartment keys, passport, DHS access badge, makeup bag, blank checks, and about $3,000 in cash.”
and
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared detailed plans about a military operation against the Houthis in Yemen on a second Signal group chat, this one on his personal phone and including his wife, lawyer and brother, three people familiar with the chat told CNN..”
The US is not safer with these two in charge of Homeland Security and Defense
Hopefully they get her makeup bag back in time for the next photoshoot
You seem to think people can’t view the news status. Actually that is a euphemism.
I and I expect many others can and do not need your so called variety. This is supposed to be an Aviation related forum. Not your personnel town crier.
Give it a rest.
Trans
Please remember the same
“TransWorld
April 18, 2025
Rare gem of understanding there.
The more complex formula is that low (which can also mean cheap in the build sense) go up in price, they become optional, not something you can just buy.
The higher the cost then it becomes a non optional decision and its simply no longer there, the low cost is gone.
If I damage an extension cored, I can repair it. If a business damages an extension cored, they are not allowed to repair it. Its against regs.”
Gimme a break. Oh but SCS! One rule for me, another for thee.
You might want to heed that advice yourself the next time you decide to give an unprompted account of your parentage, upbringing, “career”, life adventures, etc. — e.g. as above in your reply to Mr. Hamilton.
***
David Pritchard’s post above can be construed to have background relevance in that it serves to highlight the general incompetence of the present administration, which helps lend context to its inconsistent and self-destructive tariff policy.
But it’s actually Mr. Hamilton’s call, isn’t it? And he seems to be granting us considerable latitude in discussing the broader trade war and its very far-reaching consequences — not just in aviation, but in the broader supply chain, consumer confidence, etc.
> “This is what happens when the Pentagon is working against you.” – Karoline Leavitt
Not parody.
Wow, those guys can “clone” a cat into a tiger, a mouse into a bat?
> Today is National Look Alike Day! The Chinese military is full of weapons that look a lot like systems developed by other nations. The Shenyang J-35 is an attempt to copy the Lockheed Martin F-35. More Chinese clone weapons..
https://x.com/NavalInstitute/status/1914097552414199809
Is this the level of intelligence of an “NGO” that’s supposed to inform the public?
Sounds like you, @DoU??
Trans
If, as you claimed, BA is producing the MAX at around 30 a month, they aren’t clearing their inventory, are they? 😭 Which one you’d like to pick? 😆
“The reality is 919 production will come to a halt… ”
When??? It has to be falsifiable! This month? Next month?? The month after???
What you said is no different than saying you, or anyone (alive), is going to die!!
What is an “Indochinese” engine?
> Markets are discovering the real Trump trade is ‘Sell America’
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpGkPlAXsAAlwSn?format=jpg&name=large
Day of reckoning
> Aerospace giant RTX said it expects a $850 million impact from tariffs, while GE estimated about $500 million.
And Northrop Grumman is already suffering from a 7% drop in revenue, even before tariffs. The stock is currently down 11.7%.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:0440389d936b0:0-northrop-grumman-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results/
Bloomberg:
> The shares fell the most since the early days of the pandemic on Tuesday, after Northrop said per-share profit declined by 47% in the first quarter, primarily due to new loss provisions tied to the B-21.
Northrop, which for 2023 took a nearly $1.6 billion pretax charge on the program, added $477 million to the tally, as manufacturing costs rose and the company invested in its production systems to speed the program’s ramp-up.
[There’s no where to hide]
> Defense companies have outperformed the broader market since US President Donald Trump unleashed sweeping tariffs against most US trading partners, given the shelter provided by their US-based supply chains and Trump’s upcoming budget for fiscal 2026.
“We’re gonna win so much you may even get tired of winning and you’ll say please please it’s too much winning we can’t take it anymore.”
Winning fatigue?
> *Manufacturers* in the Richmond Fed district say they’re already reducing headcount, and expect to reduce headcount even further into the future
> This is a key chart from the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey. It shows business leaders expect their profit margins to get eaten alive, as input costs soar, with minimal ability to increase their own sales prices
> The same wedge is seen in the Philly Fed’s survey of non-manufacturers. Cost of goods soaring. Sales pricing power non-existent.
Jeppesen
https://theaircurrent.com/dispatches/?entry=27860
“Bessent Sees De-Escalation With China, Situation Unsustainable”
“(Bloomberg) — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bessent-sees-escalation-china-situation-155511836.html
***
So, it’s finally dawning on the administration what the effects will be of prolonged rare-earth starvation and widespread empty shelves in stores.
“Shoot first, ask questions later”.
> “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.
Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan”
Lol. There aren’t any “negotiations” yet. This shenanigan is the work of Bessent and Trump, from what I read.
just another of Donnie’s “dead cat bounces”
Is this real? Lol
> President Trump says tariffs on China won’t be as high as 145% and “will come down substantially, but won’t be zero.”
Why would Xi call Trump? Xi can sit there, have tea and enjoy the performance.
It took a while, but Donnie and his gang may finally be realizing that the US needs China far more than China needs the US.
But it’s too late now. Pandora’s Box has been opened, and Xi can just sip his Yunnan Pu’erh tea while Donnie works up a sweat. Meanwhile: empty shelves coming soon to a US store near you…
meanwhile…Trump Slump in International Travel
“International travelers are skipping the U.S. That could cost America’s economy $90 billion.
Travel and tourism is a huge part of the U.S. services economy, supporting some 9.5 million American jobs”
As someone who has visited the US for business and leisure dozens and dozens of times since 1978, I will not be going again under this current administration. Canada is looking more and more attractive with each passing horror story of simple tourists being detained, strip-searched and held in handcuffs before being deported at the whim of some over-zealous, red-hatted immigration official.
I’ll spend my money elsewhere.
China Has an Army of Robots on Its Side in the Tariff War
“Enormous investments in factory equipment and artificial intelligence are giving China an edge in car manufacturing and other industries.”
“China’s secret weapon in the trade war is an army of factory robots, powered by artificial intelligence, that have revolutionized manufacturing.”
“Factories are being automated across China at a breakneck pace. With engineers and electricians tending to fleets of robots, these operations are bringing down the cost of manufacturing while improving quality.”
Not “slave labor”??
no mistake on China’s robotic strategy
“Kuka, a listed mechanical engineering company located in Augsburg, Bavaria, is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of industrial robots. In 2015, the Chinese electrical appliance manufacturer Midea initially acquired 5.4 percent of the voting rights, which the company expanded to almost 95 percent by 2016. With a transaction volume of around €4.66 billion, this was the largest corporate takeover of its kind to date.”
First major carmaker to stop production in the USA due to tariffs: assembly lines to be shut down on May 12
“Mazda says the pause will begin on May 12 at its Huntsville, Alabama plant, which builds the CX-50 car for North American markets. The company did not say how long the suspension will last”
“If there is no change in the U.S. government tariff policy, Mazda could raise the price of the CX-50 in Canada to offset added costs, or potentially withdraw the model from the market entirely”
its going to be empty shelves…get use to it
Chinese freight ship traffic to busiest U.S. ports, Los Angeles, Long Beach, sees steep drop
“For the week ending May 3, the number of freight vessels leaving China and headed to the Southern California ports, the main U.S. ports receiving Chinese freight and other Asian trade, is down 29% week-over-week, according to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for ships.”
“Year-over-year, the data shows a 44% drop in vessels scheduled to arrive the week of May 4-May 10”
Worth a read, a man-made disaster
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1915040394171334859
US businesses mark up Chinese imports by at least 300% (after all those “sale” and “discounts” you enjoy), it’s US businesses which benefit the most and will suffer the most! $1.4 trillion vs $600 billion!
> The U.S. imports $600B worth of goods from China every year, 95% of that via ocean freight. Those goods sell at retail for ~$2T.
> If the tariffs on China continue at this level w will we see a $2T hit to economic activity in our country, the failure of tens of thousands of American businesses, and the laying off of millions of employees.
> We will also have mass shortages this summer as the goods don’t show up. The first ships carrying goods paying the duties arrived on Monday. And the decline in freight arrivals will hit in the coming weeks.
A Trump-led — also have a wide support of Americans — massive seppuku of small and medium businesses.
Lol.
> WSJ says that China tariffs could come down to somewhere between 50 – 65%
Recession? 100% IMO
Depression? > 50%
Trump telling American: let them eat cake.
Just another day
*BESSENT: NO UNILATERAL OFFER FROM TRUMP TO CUT CHINA TARIFFS
*BESSENT, ASKED ON TRUMP-POWELL FIRING, SAYS ‘I’M NOT A LAWYER’
Stocks off their highs of the day
US Government set up a huge program to give out billions of subsidies and loans to chipmakers — reindustrialize to add more good paying manufacturing jobs, but Intel is going to slash 20% jobs?
“Rare Earth Showdown Hits Tesla, Defense Firms Hardest”
“Beijing has restricted exports of seven key rare earth elements critical to EVs, defense systems, and clean energy.
-Automakers and defense firms face potential shortages as stockpiles of rare earth-dependent components rarely exceed three months.
-With no domestic heavy rare earth separation capacity and a shuttered alternative facility in Vietnam, the U.S. is highly dependent on Chinese supply.”
“On a scale of 1 to 10, the Chinese export curbs are 7 or 8 in terms of severity and would be “consequential” for all automakers, including Tesla, Jan Giese, a metals trader at Tradium, a company based in Frankfurt, told FT.
“If exporters wait for months to obtain their export licenses from China, there could be shortages at a global level, considering the fact that the stockpiles at the supply chain and automakers do not exceed three months.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rare-Earth-Showdown-Hits-Tesla-Defense-Firms-Hardest.html
Also:
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Chinas-Rare-Earth-Export-Halt-Raises-Trade-War-Tensions.html
The stockpiles are drained.
Walmart, Target CEOs privately warned Trump tariffs could lead to empty shelves soon
“The chief executives of Walmart and Target privately warned President Trump this week that his sweeping tariff policy could disrupt supply chains and lead to empty shelves in the coming weeks”
Donnie is still waiting for the Chinese to call him…but they’re too busy laughing to pick up the phone 😅
#WatchHimSweat
China says there are no negotiations with the US over tariffs
“China on Thursday denied U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that the two sides were involved in active negotiations over tariffs, saying that any suggestion of progress in this matter was as groundless as “trying to catch the wind.”
Even if Trump rescinds in weeks to come:
The damage is done.
Chinese producers and exporters react fast and flexible.
With “Covid”(big) and “Ever Given”(smalish) incidents we could observe how much “ringing” such disturbances create.
back in the 1992 “It’s the economy stupid”. In 2025 “It’s the empty shelves stupid”
China tells US to ‘cancel all unilateral tariffs’ if it wants talks
“China has called on the US to “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” if it wants trade talks, in some of Beijing’s strongest comments on the impasse between the world’s two economic superpowers.”
“Beijing on Thursday also said there were “currently no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States”, despite recent signs of softening from Washington.”