Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 23. May 23, 2025
- Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part II May 22, 2025
- Boeing publicizes fourth Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report May 21, 2025
- Boeing’s 2025 annual safety report due this month May 20, 2025
- FAA’s data of accident, incidents, often not shared May 19, 2025
Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable
May 1, 2025, © Leeham News in Toulouse: Airbus CEO Guillame Faury and CFO Thomas Toepfer presented the Airbus 1Q2025 results yesterday. All Airbus divisions performed to plan, producing a group EBIT Adjusted of 0.6bn Euro.
The company delivered 136 aircraft, which was to plan. The lower deliveries than last year (142) were due to CFM’s extra delivery efforts in 4Q2024, leading to fewer LEAP deliveries for 1Q2025. EBIT at €0.5bn and Free Cash Flow at -€0.3bn were also as planned.
The big unknown going forward is the effect of the US tariffs and the trade war it has caused. Airbus CEO, Guillaume Faury, said, “Airbus will not cover tariffs applied to Airbus aircraft that are imported to the US for US customers (read A330 and A350). For A220s and A320s produced in Mobile for US customers, tariffs apply for parts that must be imported to produce these aircraft. The effects are here less clear as the tariff situation can change at any time”.
Group-level results
Revenue for 1Q2025 was €13.5bn (€12.8bn 1Q2024), and EBIT Adjusted (mapping operational achievements) was €0.63bn (€0.58bn 1Q2024). Total charges were -€151m, mainly in Defense & Space for workforce adjustment.
The free cash flow for 1Q2025 was -€0.3bn (-€1.8bn). The net cash position at the end of 1Q2025 was €11.0bn, with total liquidity at €26bn.
Guidance for 2025 was unchanged at:
- Airbus targets 820 commercial aircraft deliveries.
- Airbus expects an EBIT Adjusted of €7.0bn.
- Free Cash Flow of €4.5bn.
Commercial aircraft
Commercial aircraft had net orders of 204 aircraft (170). The backlog is now at 8,726 aircraft. Of the 136 (142) delivered aircraft, 106 were A321/A320, 17 A220, 9 A350, and 4 A330.
The 2027 targeted delivery rate for the A320 family is still 75. The first half of 2025’s deliveries are impacted by CFM LEAp deliveries, as it depleted its delivery capacity to help Airbus with 4Q2024. Delivery catch-up to the rate will be mid-year.
The ramp-up in rate of the A220 and A350 is threatened by the problems at Spirit Aerosystems, where a takeover agreement has now been concluded. Airbus will receive $439m to compensate for losses caused by the takeover. The compensation will keep Airbus loss-free for 2025, but it will cost “a mid-three-digit million sum” during 2026 and 2027, according to the Airbus CFO Thomas Toepfer.
Airbus maintains the targeted delivery rate of 12 A350 deliveries per month by 2028 and 14 for A220 by 2026. The A330neo is at four per month, where it will remain.
Helicopters
The Airbus helicopter had a good 1Q2025, with delivery and services revenue of €1.6bn (€1.5bn) and EBIT of €78m (€ 71 m).
Defense and Space
Defense and Space had a solid 1Q2025 with increased orders and revenue for Air Power. Discussions with Thales and Leonardo regarding the Space segments are progressing to plan. Order intake was €2.6bn (€2.0 bn) with revenues at €2.7bn (€2.5bn). EBIT Adjusted was €77m (-€9m).
Airbus Redirects Tariff Costs to US Airlines
“Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury explained that while Airbus covers tariff costs for components shipped to its Mobile, Alabama assembly facility, the company will not absorb import duties for aircraft delivered directly from Europe to U.S. customers”
That makes sense. Ditto for the reverse, Boeing aircraft for airlines in Europe.
Ryanair is also not going to bear tariff costs.
“Ryanair threatens cancelling Boeing aircraft order amid tariffs”
“But with COMAC not yet certified in Europe, and Boeing’s main rival Airbus saying it is sold out through the rest of the decade, Ryanair may find it hard to follow through on its threat, one industry source told Reuters.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/5/1/ryanair-threatens-cancelling-boeing-aircraft-order-amid-tariffs-report
***
(1) The C919 isn’t yet certified by EASA…but neither is the MAX-10.
(2) Airbus may yet have early-ish slots available, if we get a wave of deferrals due to economic malaise and/or tariffs.
It must be pretty frustrating for MAX-10/MAX-7 customers to see that BA isn’t even bothering any more to give a target date for certification.
And on a related — highly amusing — note:
“Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary told not to buy Chinese COMAC jets”
“In a letter to the CEO of Ryanair, US Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi has warned the low-cost carrier against purchasing Chinese-made COMAC jets.
“The influential Democrat politician wrote to Michael O’Leary over security concerns if Ryanair opted to purchase COMAC’s C919, according to Reuters.
““Respectfully, U.S. and European airlines should not be even contemplating the future purchase of airplanes from Chinese military companies,” wrote Krishnamoorthi in a letter seen by the news agency.”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/ryanair-michael-oleary-ceo-comac-china-aircraft
***
So, the Chinese are expected to buy planes from Boeing and Airbus — which are both military companies — but the reverse situation is not allowed…?
Never heard of the guy, a nobody tooting a weird horn.
Equally stupid as OLeary can’t buy C919s anyway.
Some people will do anything for attention.
Enlighten us as to how/why “OLeary can’t buy C919s anyway.”…
Ryanair will be the “Eastern Airlines moment” for the C919. With the EU skin in the game with Ryanair buying C919, the EASA cert will be within 3 years…
“Enlighten us as to how/why “OLeary can’t buy C919s anyway.”…”
C919s have not been certified by EASA, so they are not allowed to fly in European airspace. So O’Leary can buy them, just not fly them
@ David
There are many carrots that China can dangle in order to encourage the EASA to pick up some speed.
In the meantime, COMAC said a few weeks ago that it is expecting a sizable order from the Middle East later this year.
Which will receive EASA’s approval first — the C919 or the MAX-10? 🤔
Olas:
Strange things happen when you talk about Chinese.
You know aviation, right?
You know O’Leary ordered a bunch of 737 MAX 200 and MAX 10 when neither of them was certified by the FAA or the EASA?
COMAC, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, sells civilian aircraft only.
Yes, I know that…but it seems that the good senator doesn’t.
How often lawmakers of one country tell businesses of other countries what not to buy??
===========
Reuters:
> ‘O’Leary said in the letter the Irish airline has not had any discussions with COMAC about aircraft purchases since about 2011 but that it would “of course” consider it if they were 10%-20% cheaper than Boeing’s main rival Airbus’
Let me see: BA made promises that they can’t or are unwilling to keep?
Reuters:
> ‘The threat to cancel orders marked a hardening of tone from O’Leary, who in April had threatened to delay deliveries. In March he said that Boeing executives had privately expressed confidence that aircraft would be exempted from Trump’s tariffs.’
Martin Wolf of the FT:
> Donald Trump’s “liberation day” of supposedly “reciprocal tariffs” against the rest of the world – arguably, the most eccentric trade policy proposals ever made – has, after a hasty retreat under fire from the markets, turned into a trade war with China.
This may (or, may not) have been what was intended from the start. So, can Trump win this war against China? Indeed, can the US, as it is now after Trump’s second coming, hope to succeed in its wider rivalry with China? The answers are “no”. This is not because China is invincible, far from it.
> Above all, the US has become unreliable. A “transactional” US is one always seeking a better deal. No sane country should bet its future on such a partner, especially against China. Trump’s treatment of Canada was the defining moment.
The Canadians have responded by re-electing the Liberals. Will Trump learn from this? Can a leopard change his spots? This is who he is. He is also a man US voters have elected twice. Moreover, breaking with China would be risky: China will not forget and is unlikely to forgive.
> Now, consider what is happening under the Trump regime: attempts to transform the rule of law into an instrument of vengeance; the dismantling of the US government; contempt for the laws that are the foundation of legitimate government; attacks on scientific research and the independence of the great US universities.
Also, wars on reliable statistics; hostility towards immigrants (and not just illegal ones), even though they have been the foundations of US success in every generation; an outright repudiation of medical science and climate science; an outright rejection of the most basic ideas in the economics of trade.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2025/04/30/why-the-us-will-lose-its-battle-with-china/
Additionally:
– Attacking/eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve.
– Causing a crisis of confidence in the US bond markets, and the US dollar.
– Cozying up to Russia, and even siding with it at the UN.
– Viciously dressing-down a visiting head of state in the Oval Office.
– Threatening to annex various sovereign countries/territories.
***
On a related note:
“CNN: The last boats without crippling tariffs from China are arriving. The countdown to shortages and higher prices has begun”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/business/ports-shelves-tariffs-shipping
That’s why Trump & Co is desperate! But at the same time, they say they’re waiting for de-escalation from China. 🤦♂️
Trump Goes Full Grinch as Tariffs Threaten to Ruin Christmas
“Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls,” said the president from the White House on Wednesday”
For those children outside the US, instead of two dolls, they can have three, four, five or six now??
========
Oops, long-term gains are far, far away, they now admit.
Treasury Secretary:
> As a recovering Wall Street person, I can tell you that Wall Street people like instant gratification.
@POTUS’ agenda is one for the next one, two, three decades. To bring back precision manufacturing and lift up the middle class
Even P&G came out saying they have to raise prices because of tariffs hit. Who would have thought!
> The supply chain is a slow-moving train wreck.
You don’t feel it yet, but Halloween is already canceled.
Black Friday is next.
“Consolidated free cash flow before customer financing was € -310 million (Q1 2024: € -1,791 million), reflecting the planned inventory build up to support the ramp-up and the commercial momentum across the Company. Consolidated free cash flow totalled € -296 million (Q1 2024: € -1,799 million). The gross cash position stood at € 26.1 billion at the end of March 2025 (year-end 2024: € 26.9 billion), with a consolidated net cash position of € 11.0 billion (year-end 2024: € 11.8 billion).”
https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-04-airbus-reports-first-quarter-q1-2025-results_08f16d
***
Negative cashflow of €310M due to constructive inventory build-up…as opposed to BA’s destructive burn of $2.3B on ongoing inefficiencies, including $700M on loan interest 🙈
Commercial aircraft figures:
AB
136 frames delivered
€9.5B revenue ($10.24B)
€514M EBIT ($581M)
Average revenue per frame: $75.29M
Average EBIT per frame: $3.7M
BA
130 frames delivered
$8.147B revenue
$2.93B unit accounting *loss* ($537M declared *loss* with program accounting).
$2.222 derived EBIT *loss* (all interest payment assigned to BCA, for ease of calculation).
Average revenue per frame: $62.67M
Average derived EBIT per frame: $17M *loss*.
And there are still commenters who just can’t believe that BA has been pricing its planes at loss-making levels…🙈
https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2025/Boeing-Reports-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx
+1
Also notable is that the A330neo is up slightly, from three
planes per month to four.
bit by bit.
Methinks the rate will be climbing above 4 in the medium term…especially if China orders 100 of them.
Likely.
Even more interestingly:
Of BA’s 130 deliveries, 25 were widebodies.
Of AB’s 136 deliveries, only 13 were widebodies.
And, yet, AB *still* managed a higher average revenue per frame than BA.
Also, AB had 17 A220s in the mix, which are relatively cheap, and with a low earnings margin.
#BA_Selling_At_A_Loss 🙈
BA will make it up in volume, bro.
😉
There is another explanation: Boeing took a lot of credit (by moving payment forward) and that depressed future earnings.
Abalone,
Thank you for those figures. I checked them out and they looked good – and they are shocking! In fact, it gets even worse if today’s (04 May 2025) Euro-to-Dollar conversion rate of 1.13 is used.
In that case, the average Airbus Revenue per Frame is $79.1 Million assuming 136 Frames and 9521 Million Euros. (https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-04-airbus-reports-first-quarter-q1-2025-results_08f16d)
Thanks Again!
Hello Bjorn, my understanding is that the A321XLRs are assembled in Europe. Wouldn’t upcoming deliveries to US carriers (American, Jetblue, United) also be subject to tariffs, assuming the planes are “permanently imported” to the USA?
Yes, they would, as I say in the article. So A330, A350 and any other Airbus aircraft made outside the US.
Will Trump go for levies associated with entry/exit of non-US planes?
( like that landing levy for Chinese ships? )
The Trump process has something of what Heinlein described in “Revolt in 2100”. ( though there the result is an absolutist religious dictatorship in Spendid Isolation America. Across the ocean are only barbarians.)
The question really is , if the tariff situation isn’t resolved, whether the US airlines who have ordered them and refuse to pay the tariffs, will cancel their orders? They can’t then turn instead to Boeing, because Boeing don’t have a competing aircraft. The choice then becomes whether to use larger, potentially less economic aircraft, or abandon the segment of the market to foreign competing airlines? Just goes to show there is potentially more than one way of wrecking a business!!
Apart from outright cancellation, it’s also an option to just defer…after all, you-know-who should be off the horizon in a little under 4 years (nominally, at least).
Deferring may be on the cards one way or another if the economy heads into a downturn.
@Roger:
The defining issue is that US airlines could not get Boeing aircraft, not that Boeing dos not have roughly analogous aircraft. Slots are all taken up and a meltdown would be required (and could happen) and then they would not need aircraft regardless.
A320 series and MAX roughly align . Yea no A321 but you can adjust.
787 and A330, the 777-200/300 is roughly equal to the A350. 777X should clear testing this year.
And the Orange one suddenly declares he has won and has great deals and it goes away.
It looks great, in the future, US airlines order from BA and the rest of the world order from Airbus and others. Win-win!!
The interesting one is Bjorn on the A220. The Leap Bravo possibility, would love to see the details on that!
The big issue is the A220 lacks commonality y with the rest of Airbus aircraft.
Airlines that want a mix of sizes are not going to want an A220, costs go up with the separate crew training requirements. Lack of existing flexibility is part of those costs.
I don’t see the A220 as anything more for Airbus than a keep it from Boeing move (and I like the A220 a lot).
It would fit in with Boeing as MAX is not common with anything up above it. Some benefit to a modern cockpit for those who want to swap pilots around.
Airbus is stuck with it but I don’t see it gaining and replacing the A320. New wing on the A320 would be an interesting move. The A321 is not seriously challenged by the MAX-10, so rather than a new wing for it, new wing for the A320.
This must mean that airlines that fly [stone-age] MAXes will not want 777s and 787s, since there is no commonality.
Actually, the MAX has a cockpit based on the 787.
“based on” is doing a lot of work there, IMO.
For instance, no EICAS on the MAX, and
many, many more non-commonalities.
Wonder what the training protocols look like
for those two aircraft.
Citing safety concerns, whistleblowers urge revamp of aging Boeing 737 MAX cockpit
> Last month, two prominent flight control experts and whistleblowers — one ex-Boeing, one ex-FAA — delivered to the U.S. Senate committee overseeing aviation a technical proposal to upgrade Boeing’s 737 MAX cockpit to current design standards.
> For example, the warning lights on the overhead panel might indicate a problem with a pump in the center fuel tank.
For the most serious malfunctions, pilots must memorize the appropriate response. For a less urgent problem such as that fuel system issue, the co-pilot would open the tab for the fuel pump system in the quick reference handbook to find out what to do.
All this is second nature to a 737 pilot and routinely works well. But Jacobsen, the retired FAA safety engineer, said it’s problematic for a less experienced pilot if an emergency breaks out at a critical moment, such as landing during bad weather.
“Pilots have to look in several places to figure out what’s wrong,” Jacobsen said. “If it’s a time-critical phase of flight, you don’t want to be stumbling around.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/citing-safety-concerns-whistleblowers-urge-revamp-of-aging-boeing-737-max-cockpit/
> Southwest Airlines is a major user of the 737 NG, including the 737-600, -700, -800, and -900 series. The NG introduced larger LCD displays, but Southwest prioritized a gradual transition by retaining analog-style displays in the cockpit to simplify training for pilots,..
> In essence, the 737 MAX was designed with a strong emphasis on cockpit commonality with the 737 NG, a key consideration for airlines like Southwest that operate large fleets of 737 aircraft.
Airbus has had as much confusion and causes of crashes on its systems.
There is zero research that says EICAS does anything better than a NG/MAX alert system.
Mentour Pilot has a great U Tube out on the differences. Its some and some.
EICAS was Airbus take on things and like a lot of those systems, no one ever researched it to see what is effective, engineers just implemented it on their opinions.
New designs including Boeing went the same way, but people whack on the Legislatures (rightfully so) and it was legislatures that decided EICAS was mandatory despite it being a norm on anything new.
Computer screens are what we have. I look at the glass cockpits on light aircraft these days and its, how much garbage are you going to cram on a screen? LCA do not seem to have gone that nutty from what I have seen. But they keep pushing in that direction.
Have you asked any expert, not a youtuber, about research on EICAS?
Reality is the thing that doesn’t go away even if you don’t like it.
@Scott:
There is some semblance in the panels and the displays presenation you get out of them but there is a huge amount of legacy 737 in the Switches and controls for the various systems.
It would be more accurate to say the 767 has a cockpit more aligned with the 787 but even that is a layover of different systems controlled underneath.
TW,
Look! What I found 👇
> The new cockpit alert that triggered Southwest concern and the ploy to install it on a single 737 NG was called the Roll Command Alerting System.
This was developed in response to several accidents, including the Aeroflot-Nord flight 821 crash in Russia in 2008 that killed 88 people.
A safety analysis team at Boeing led by Ludtke, and including engineer Curtis Ewbank who later turned whistleblower, determined that when a 737 banked too hard the autopilot reaction to level the plane could confuse the pilots as to what was happening.
As in the Aeroflot-Nord crash, the pilot could think the autopilot was causing the excessive bank angle instead of trying to counter it, and turn the yoke the opposite way, only serving to increase the plane’s roll and flip the plane upside down.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/legal-filing-reveals-southwest-airlines-proposed-a-ploy-to-deceive-faa-on-boeing-737-max/
I had a brain zark on the 767 cockpit.
Its actually the KC-46A that has a display setup per the 787.
Isn’t it more like 4 LCDs lifted from the 787?
The system under the shiny surface still is close to the Jurrasic, isn’t it? ( foundation for the MCAS entanglement FUBAR.)
The trade war with China escalates further:
“Trump says any country that buys oil from Iran will not be allowed to do business with U.S.”
““Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. “They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/trump-iran-oil-sanctions.html
Doubtful that China will allow the US to dictate its trade relationships.
So, that means that China won’t be supplying any more parts to Boeing…effective immediately.
Nor will it be buying anything from Boeing, GE, etc.
Way to go, Donnie 🙈
Another disastrous quarter at Spirit Aero:
-Revenues of $1.5 billion
-EPS of $(5.21); Adjusted EPS* of $(4.25)
-Cash used in operations of $420 million; Free cash flow* usage of $474 million
“Total change in estimates in the first quarter of 2025 included net forward losses of $293 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $8 million. Net forward losses were mainly driven by the Airbus A350, Airbus A220 and Boeing 787 programs of $90 million, $86 million and $38 million, respectively, resulting from schedule changes, production performance and supply chain cost growth. Excess capacity costs during the first quarter of 2025 were $47 million. In comparison, total changes in estimates in the first quarter of 2024 included net forward losses of $495 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $39 million. Additionally, excess capacity costs were $26 million in the same period of 2024.”
“Developments in 2024 resulted in significant reductions in projected revenue and cash flows over the next twelve months. These developments include production and delivery process changes implemented by Boeing, lower than planned 737 production rates and the lack of price increases on Airbus programs. Although the customer advances received in 2024 and 2025 have provided essential operational liquidity, there can be no assurance that Spirit will be able to obtain additional advances from customers, repay current advances on the specified due dates, renegotiate the due dates or otherwise obtain additional liquidity as needed under acceptable terms or at all. We will need to obtain additional funding to sustain operations, as we expect to continue generating operating losses for the foreseeable future.”
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/spirit-aerosystems-reports-first-quarter-2025-results-302444240.html
From the press release:
> Developments in 2024 resulted in significant reductions in projected revenue and cash flows over the next twelve months. These developments include production and delivery process changes implemented by Boeing, lower than planned 737 production rates and the lack of price increases on Airbus programs.
> In connection with the proposed merger, Spirit and Boeing have each received a request for additional information (“second request”) from the Federal Trade Commission as part of the regulatory review process under the Hard-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, as amended (the “HSR Act”). The second request extends the waiting period imposed by the HSR Act until 30 days after Spirit and Boeing have substantially complied with the requests or the waiting period is terminated sooner by the Federal Trade Commission.
==========
How much cash has come out the door of BA to sustain Spirit? How much more cash to spend in 2025? 2026?
A ticking bomb?
FG: Spirit AeroSystems receives cash lifeline from Airbus as coffers dry up
> Spirit ended March with $220 [m] [sic] in cash and cash equivalents, down from $537 million just three months earlier.
> Cash advances received from customers – namely Airbus and Boeing – in 2024 and 2025 “provided essential operational liquidity” to Spirit, it says. But the company needs more. “We will need to obtain additional funding to sustain operations, as we expect to continue generating operating losses for the foreseeable future,” Spirit says.
> Airbus agreed to pay $1 to acquire Spirit operations that produce components for its jets, including A220 pylon work in Wichita, A220 wing and mid-fuselage production in Belfast, A350 fuselage sites in North Carolina and France, A320neo-family work in Casablanca and a site in Subang, Malaysia.
Hair on fire?
> Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems furloughs workers on 737 program
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-supplier-spirit-aerosystems-furloughs-workers-on-737-program/
KAKE:
> Buccino said there is a surplus of parts in those programs and a backlog in Wichita. Production is being paused so Spirit can go through its inventory.
Looking at Planespotters this morning for April, I see the following *line* deliveries.
MAX: 24
787: 7
A320/A321 NEO: 45
A220: 6
A350: 3
A330 NEO: 2
So, the MAX line rate is (again) well short of 31…not to mind 38. That’s now 4 months in a row in 2025.
The Air Current reported last month that MAX wing assembly is the (main) bottleneck.
Evidently you forgot to figure in the Bryce factor.
The one that can gives all AB deliveries, yet will do whatever it takes to downplay Boeings.’
Are the 777 and
767 an enigma to you?
Actual Match numbers are;
MAX 29 (4 FROM THE LOT)
787. 8
777F. 5
767F. 2
I’m sure you’ll be thrilled when they reach the coveted 31 deliveries a month, or cry when they haven’t gotten 38 yet.
250-350 Spirit AeroSystems employees in Wichita notified of furlough
“Between 250-350 employees at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita were notified Friday morning that their job will soon be furloughed for about a month because of a backlog, spokesperson Joe Buccino said”
I always love when you place one of your “calm” posts 😅
The reason I don’t bother with the 777 and 767 lines is because those lines weren’t slowed/stalled to sort out quality issues — whereas the MAX and 787 lines (infamously) were. Those legacy lines are therefore irrelevant from the point of view of re-ramp-up.
Hadn’t thought of that, had you? 😉
The stuff out in the parking lot is uninteresting because it doesn’t carry a margin…and because it has nothing to do with the FAA’s *production* limit.
Better luck next month!
But, based on the loss in Q1 and the projected cashburn for the rest of the year, I don’t think you should get your hopes up 🙈
Better luck next month on those A350 deliveries as well ..
Will wait for the Barrage of excuses of supply chain issues that somehow only affects AB, yet Boeing shipped out more 787’s than the entire 350/ 330N run for the month.
Sorry, all new builds!!!😉
I’m not “worried” about the A350 at all: take a look at Planespotters at all the frames that are essentially finished…just waiting for cabin furnishings. Go ahead — shock yourself 👀
Plus: AB makes a profit on its deliveries…whereas BA makes a gaping loss on them.
Maybe that’s why BA is keeping the delivery numbers low 😅
Yeah I’ll be sure to go to your “go to”site planespotters; to get all the reliable info.
Too bad you’ve been off on BA order totals 2 months running!!!☺️
According to Howmet’s projections, “Boeing is estimated to increase production from 25/mo to 28/mo (yearly average) on the 737 MAX program, while the Airbus A320Neo family will generate numbers in the mid-50s.”
That corresponds well to what I’m seeing on Planespotters…though it’s not a popular message for some people here 😉
Boeing delivered a total of 29 737 MAX last month.
…several of which were from the parking lot.
The line rate was well short of the much-heralded 31.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-deliveries-nearly-double-april-150804413.html
Looking forward to D Andrews’ comment on this 😉
FG: AerCap CEO not interested in 737 and A320 replacements
FG: Bombardier’s production still disrupted by one engine maker’s delays
“FG: AerCap CEO not interested in 737 and A320 replacements”
That was actually addressed. Hindsight is such a great predictor. As noted, it has nothing to do with aircraft and all to do with engines.
He should have bought more CEO and NG when he had the chance.
Who are building CEO and NG in the year 2025? 😂 Airframers moved on, so do airline customers.
> DAMNING NEW INFO on Thursday near misses involving two DCA flights and an Army Black Hawk. FAA says helo “did not proceed directly to the Pentagon” and instead “took a scenic route around.”
Closest distance to Republic 5825 was “0.4 miles and 200 feet.”
This involved *the very same* Army unit involved in the fatal DCA midair collision.
https://x.com/petemuntean/status/1918417929194115096
> DEVELOPING: The NTSB is now investigating the aborted landings of two commercial flights approaching Reagan National Airport on Thursday as an Army Black Hawk was approaching the Pentagon.
Here is a video
https://x.com/STATter911/status/1918450313385627771
This is afaics a general US military issue.
Lack of competency compensated by overconfidence
an a general disdain for the “lesser” civil domain.
Look at US Navy ships crashing into merchant mariners or sinking fishing boats.
related, funny: MiB1, the recruitement scene. “Best of the Best of the Best, SIR!!”
As usual Mentour Pilot does a good one – I don’t agree with all the reasons on the A220 hold up. It being an orphan in the Airbus lineup is a major factor. If Airlines can’t buy an A220-500, then (tariffs aside) they will buy an A320.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_54cqPdSVI
Another possibility is Airbus stretches the A320 putting in a MAX-9 area.
But CFM coming out with a new engine for a limited A220-500? Split a narrow slice of all of 14 a month with P&W? I don’t think so. Even a modified LEAP is a stretch (pun not intended but know its there)
“But CFM coming out with a new engine for a limited A220-500?”
Bjorn Fehrm’s analysis in the article below this one equips the A220-500 with existing LEAP-1B engines…
words from WB at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting
“It’s a big mistake in my view when you have seven-and-a-half billion people that don’t like you very well and you’ve got 300 million are crowing in some way about how well they’ve done. I don’t think it’s right and I don’t think it’s wise,” he said.”
“There’s no question that trade, trade can be an act of war. I think it’s led to bad things. The attitudes it’s brought out in the United States, I mean we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world and we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best,”
Wise words.
Most unfortunate (for us) that Buffet is retiring (though a well-earned rest for him).
A startling example of how an extremely competent and successful person can nevertheless be gentle-spoken, humble and kind.
The complete anti-thesis of most of the Fortune 500.
—
On a tangential note:
This article has some photos of the Qatari 747 that Trump wants to use as AF1.
A real “flying Las Vegas” as opposed to a “flying Oval Office”. Will probably be pimped-up so as to contain even more bling.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14673127/trump-air-force-one-boeing-qatar.html
Begs the question: is all the security stuff on AF1 really necessary…or is it just OTT paranoia? Other world leaders seem to manage just fine in more-regular aircraft, without all the “Batman toys”. How often has any of that stuff ever actually been needed in the past 50 years?
🧐
“There could be things that could happen in the US that could make us want to own a lot of other currencies.”
The CEO Who Says an Asteroid Is Coming to Destroy America’s Businesses
> So he’s spreading the word about the dangers facing small businesses. He’s going on hit podcasts to discuss how tariffs are hurting American companies. On social media, he’s sharing logistics data to show why those companies are doomed without a change in tariff policies. This is how you know people are paying attention: He recently posted on X about ocean-container booking statistics—and got 3 million views.
> “If they don’t change the tariffs, it’s going to be an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event,” he told me. “Only these aren’t dinosaurs. These are dynamic, healthy businesses.”
> America’s biggest and most powerful businesses have armies of lobbyists and CEOs who dine with the president. Even for them, tariffs are disruptive. But for America’s small businesses, they could be destructive.
Through no fault of their own, he explains, their business models have broken. They can’t afford the latest tariffs on Chinese goods. But Vietnam’s factories won’t bother with their production jobs, so they also can’t move their manufacturing out of China. “If they could,” Petersen said, “they would have.” Meanwhile, there is too much in flux to figure out what they should do. And if they haven’t moved their supply chains already, there’s no point in moving them yet. “It’s either too late or too early,” Petersen said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-says-asteroid-coming-destroy-010000854.html
WSJ: What a $15,000 Electric SUV Says About U.S.-China Car Rivalry
> For an American used to a $50,000 gasoline-powered SUV as the standard family choice, the Chinese market is hardly recognizable.
A majority of new vehicles sold in China are either fully electric or plug-in hybrids, and a look around the recent auto show in Shanghai showed that local makers have mostly stopped introducing new gasoline-powered models. In the U.S., by contrast, the traditional combustion engine still powers about eight in 10 new vehicles.
> “This couldn’t happen without a Chinese supply chain,” said Masahiko Maeda, head of Toyota’s Asia business. “Unless you localize, it’s out of the question.”
> Maeda said the U.S. has a “costly supply chain,” meaning Toyota’s U.S. showrooms won’t be selling a $15,000 electric SUV soon. The closest equivalent, a slightly longer model called the bZ4X, starts at around $40,000 in the U.S.
“This couldn’t happen without a Chinese supply chain,…”
The CJ-1000A turbofan has a 100% Chinese supply chain…so, can you imagine how the Chinese will soon be churning out those engines, without any dependence on foreign suppliers?
On a related note:
https://www.aviationtoday.com/?p=108368
“COMAC’s flagship aircraft, the C919, is spearheading Beijing’s goal of self-reliance in aerospace tech. Chinese firms like AVIC Avionics Systems, CASC, and BAIC are being nurtured to replace Western suppliers like Honeywell, Thales, and Collins Aerospace.
“China is decoupling from Western avionics ecosystems and pushing for homegrown alternatives, leading to a parallel supply chain.”
“Although it still relies on some Western components (like the LEAP-1C engine), COMAC is aggressively localizing its supply chain as China seeks technological self-reliance.
“Backed by state subsidies, COMAC doesn’t face the same market pressures as Boeing or Airbus. It can afford to move slowly, absorb losses, and focus on long-term geopolitical goals.”
“Western sanctions or export restrictions may further force China to accelerate domestic aviation production, ironically strengthening COMAC.”
+1
Underestimate CN at one’s own peril.
Emirates Anticipates 1st Boeing 777X Delivery By The End Of 2026
“Emirates expects to receive its long-awaited Boeing 777X widebody aircraft by the end of 2026, the airline’s chairman and chief executive officer, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, said during a media roundtable at the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai”
The 777X was launched in November 2013, so it will be 13 years for an upgraded 777 with new wings and engines!
Not sure that “anticipates” is the correct verb here: “Hopes against all hope” might be more accurate.
Note the lack of any updates from BA.
Oops!! Boeing’s TTBW hit the walls of reality.
> Why did Boeing drop the X-66 truss-wing demonstrator with NASA?
“Boeing hit up against the realisities of the limitations of a TTBW configuration, coupled wioth the need for people on the [commercial development] programs.” …
https://bsky.app/profile/byerussell.com/post/3loef7vynno2u
More theatre..
😉
your right about theatre
“Trump orders 100% tariff on foreign-made movies to save ‘dying’ Hollywood”
remember what Warren Buffet said about trade
“It’s a big mistake in my view when you have seven-and-a-half billion people that don’t like you very well”
Hollywood studio stocks fall after Trump proposes foreign film tariff
> Shares of Netflix, Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount and Comcast fell in premarket hours after President Donald Trump proposed a tariff on film productions shot outside the United States
> After all, the majority of projects are shot digitally, and transporting the final product can be done online or with a data storage device. There isn’t a physical good that exchanges hands in the same way as, say, toys or clothing that’s made in another country. Questions are already swirling. What part of the production process would be hit with this duty? Would it apply only to movie projects or will TV shows filmed internationally also incur this levy? Are already completed projects exempt?
> …industry experts worry about how these duties will impact relationships with other countries. Hollywood relies on international box office sales to recoup lofty film budgets.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/hollywood-studio-stocks-fall-after-trump-proposes-foreign-film-tariff/3693413/
“Thousands of machinists union members go on strike at jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney”
“EAST HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — About 3,000 labor union members went on strike early Monday at jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney in Connecticut, as negotiations over wages, retirement benefits and job security broke down.
“Members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers were picketing at manufacturing locations in East Hartford and Middletown, after about 77% of nearly 2,100 union members voted to approve their first strike since 2001, union officials said. Their contract expired late Sunday.
““Pratt and Whitney is a powerhouse in military and commercial aerospace products because our membership makes it so,” David Sullivan, the union’s eastern territory vice president, said in a statement. ”This offer does not address the membership concerns, and the membership made their decision — we will continue to fight for a fair contract.””
““Our message to union leaders throughout this thoughtful process has been simple: higher pay, better retirement savings, more days off and more flexibility,” the company said in a statement. “We have no immediate plans to resume negotiations at this time and we have contingency plans in place to maintain operations and to meet our customer commitments.”
“The company said its latest contract proposal included an immediate 4% wage increase, followed by a 3.5% increase in 2026 and a 3% increase in 2027. It also included a $5,000 contract ratification bonus and enhanced pension and 401k plan benefits.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thousands-machinists-union-members-strike-120934557.html
Ahh those Dutch people cutting corners. Very sad
https://nltimes.nl/2025/05/05/klm-will-cancel-flights-daily-amid-urgent-boeing-787-maintenance
..living rent-free in *somebody’s* head..
😉
Bloomberg
Trade Wars: Port of Los Angeles Says Imports Are Dropping
“Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka says the volume of imports are falling. He expects a soft year ahead and he’s worried about the impact on dockworkers and truckers”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdGzwetSLaE
Short video with good insight on timing
> NEW REPORTING: Air traffic controllers at a facility responsible for Newark flights lost RADIO AND RADAR for an undisclosed time last Monday, causing *at least 5* ATCs to take trauma leave, a source familiar tells me.
It’s the most clarity yet into 8 days of FAA delays at EWR.
https://x.com/petemuntean/status/1919464823152083141
DOGE fired maintenance mechanics of the FAA?
Do you ever wonder if the unrelenting doom-porn that we are
subjected to daily is, in fact, intentional?
Just checking.
> Fireworks stores closing because of tariffs that are driving up prices and limiting selection
“At least 10 smaller fireworks stores in Northwest Indiana have already folded because they cannot afford such steep price hikes, according to local fireworks store operators.”
https://t.co/l0hNvLr04r
Trump stole fireworks?
Fireworks stores closing …
Really!!!
I really don’t know how our country can deal with this crisis.
I for one,love hearing my neighbors lighting off fireworks at midnight on a work night..
Next time,post some real news if that’s possible.
+1
doom porn
@ D Andrews
Here’s something for you to look forward to instead of the fireworks 🥳
“Qatar Airways on the cusp of Boeing widebody aircraft order: Bloomberg”
“Bloomberg said that the “final touches” on a Qatar Airways order were being formulated which would see around 100 Boeing widebody jets join the carrier, with an option for around 100 more. ”
“…However, the Qatar Airways executive would not say whether a potential deal was on the cards with Boeing or Airbus, or a combination of the two.”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/qatar-airways-boeing-order-donald-trump
But…beware of the fruit of the poisoned tree, because BA consistently sells at a loss 🙈
Excellent point Bryce;
Sry… “Abalone”
Can’t seem to tell you 2 apart .
We shall see if it’s Boeing’s order to win, or a split between the 2..
Is “Bryce” also the instigator of all those fireworks that your neighbors fire off on weekdays? 😅
You might as well pin that on him as well 🤣
I admire someone who defends his first mate.
It’s always been Bryce there first, to defend Pedro;
Some things never change.!!😉
@D Andrews
American businesses and their workers are on the losing end!
No worry, if you close your eyes, you won’t see anything. There’s another term for it.
Is firework the only good affected by tariffs?
Be honest.
Airbus CEO urges tariffs on Boeing… see below.
The ‘firework’ brought by Trump!!
Ask the reporters and news publishers why they wasted their effort to report such nuisance!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/liberation-day-fireworks-tariffs-b2743378.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-are-threatening-independence-day-firewor-rcna203659
https://www.seacoastonline.com/story/news/local/2025/05/02/fireworks-industry-sound-alarm-over-trump-tariffs-china-fourth-of-july-celebrations/83384999007/
fireworks are probably the imports with the shortest valuechain.
( import, sell, done )
There is afaics a lot of imported stuff that has a much longer value add path to run.
where does your plumber get his working materials from?
handformed by rednecks? NOT!
addendum:
the apparent idea for tariffs is to move production back to the US.
To begin with:
Where, Today, would you buy machinery for manufacturing?
🙂
The US would be on the outside looking in with diminished capacity to influence the rules around global trade.
FT: EU eyes closer ties to transpacific bloc as Trump jolts trade order
> “The renewed openness in Brussels to a partnership, which could potentially include closer ties on both digital and goods trade, marks a step-change in attitude at the highest levels of the EU. The idea would throw an umbrella over national economies accounting for roughly 30 per cent of global GDP, and would send a signal that the majority of the global trading system is committed to preserving the rules-based order now threatened by Trump tariffs, officials on both sides said.”
CNBC: “Trump trade tariffs slump widens to ‘nearly all U.S. exports,’ supply chain data shows”
“What began as a rapid drop in U.S. imports as shippers cut orders from manufacturing partners around the world has now extended into a nationwide export slump, with the U.S. agricultural sector and top farm products including soybeans, corn, and beef taking the hardest hit.
“The latest trade data shows that a slide in U.S. exports to the world, and China in particular, that began in January now extends to most U.S. ports, according to trade tracker Vizion, which analyzed U.S. export container bookings for the five-week period before the tariffs began and the five weeks after the tariffs took effect.”
“The farming sector has been warning of a “crisis” and ports data is showing more evidence of lack of ability to move product out to global markets. Port of Oregon tops the list with a 51% decrease in exports, while Port of Tacoma, a large agricultural export port, has seen a 28% decrease. The port’s top destinations for corn, soybeans, and other ag exports include Japan, China, and South Korea.”
“The slide in exports is linked to the decline in containerships coming to the U.S., as businesses across the economy cancel manufacturing orders, sending Chinese factories and freight ships into retreat, as well as changes in global demand linked to U.S. trade policy. U.S. imports continue to decline, with port data tracked by Vizion showing a 43% week-over-week drop in containers from the week of April 21 to the week of April 28.
““We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. “That means goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions,” he said.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-hit-us-exports-import-covid-level-event.html
***
The US is dependent upon foreign ships…and if they don’t come in with imports, then they also don’t leave with exports.
> US trade deficit jumps to record high
Remember, no one is allowed to have like thirty dolls, only two.
> CNBC: Mattel CEO says toy manufacturing won’t come to America, but price hikes will
To avoid a disaster, time to tell kids to start making their dolls for Xmas.
CNBC: Ford suspends 2025 guidance amid $2.5 billion tariff impact
Road & Track: Used Car Prices Are Edging Upwards as Trump Tariffs Loom
Congrats, you’re ‘richer’than you thought!
Things you can’t afford to sell are worthless.
i.e. the car you live in ….
Ford hikes prices by as much as $2,000 as a result of new tariffs.
Reuters
> Analysts have said U.S. auto sales could drop by more than 1 million vehicles a year if tariffs were to remain in place.
Scott Bessent Tells Congress the Trump Admin Has NOT Held Any Negotiations With China Over Tariffs
“Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent confirmed to Congress that no negotiations with China over tariffs have occurred since President Donald Trump announced his controversial new trade policy roughly a month ago.”
Airbus CEO urges tariffs on Boeing if US-EU trade talks fail
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/transportation/airbus-ceo-urges-tariffs-on-boeing-if-us-eu-trade-talks-fail
“Trump downplays tariff talks: ‘We don’t have to sign deals'”
“After weeks of touting how many countries were asking for bilateral trade talks with the U.S., the president and his team have yet to announce any formal agreements or frameworks.
“Trump’s effort to deprioritize trade deals marked a turn away from what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the day before.”
“”I think my people haven’t made it clear, we will sign some deals,” said Trump. “But much bigger than that is we’re going to put down the price that people are going to have to pay to shop in the United States. Think of us as a super luxury store, a store that has the goods.”
“U.S. markets moved lower Tuesday afternoon after Trump made the comments about deals.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-trade-canada-china.html
***
So, no respite in the trade war any time soon.
“Trump Downplays Trade Negotiations, Says He’ll Dictate Terms”
Looks like a toyless 2025 Xmas.
“Hong Kong’s shipping sector is reeling from the fallout of the intensifying U.S.-China trade war, with 41% of container capacity to North America’s west coast scrapped for mid-May. The surge in tariffs and disruption to global supply chains are delivering a heavy blow to the city’s re-export-driven economy.
• 41% of Hong Kong’s container shipments to North America cancelled for the week of May 12.
• Data from Freightos and Sea-Intelligence point to widespread sailing cancellations, reflecting escalating trade tensions.
• Soaring tariffs—145% from the U.S. and 125% in Chinese retaliation—are choking cross-Pacific trade volumes.
• Hong Kong’s role as a re-export hub makes it especially exposed to shocks in global trade flows.
• Analysts warn tariffs above 35% wipe out margins, rendering many export routes economically unviable.”
And that’s why the US will have empty shelves beginning in early June 2025
“Seen as a proxy of export activity, container bookings plunged to 52,073 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in the week beginning April 28 after the sharpest weekly drop this year, with volume down 42.7 per cent from 90,831 TEU the previous week.”
the clown show continues
Trump’s Education Secretary mocked after critics spot embarrassing grammatical errors in threatening letter to Harvard
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14685541/Trump-Education-Secretary-critics-spot-errors-letter-Harvard.html
my favorite is the 50 word run on sentence I guess we should give a “pass” on her 8th grade level in English composition since she received a Bachelor of Arts in French
In the future she could use “A1” to assist in writing letters
more clown stories
Trump pulls surgeon general pick
“The shakeup comes for the president to pick a new nominee after it came to light that Nesheiwat received her medical degree from American University of the Caribbean instead of the University of Arkansas”
Probably just a slight typo on the CV
the US is heading into recession based on tariffs and congress does nothing to stop it but has time for
“House passes GOP-led bill to rename Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America”
It is the small things that really count!
I do wonder if Trump is irrational or acting irrational,
saturate all others with distractions, keeping them reactive.
more clowns
Trump names Jeanine Pirro interim US attorney for DC
““She excelled in all ways,” Trump went on, praising her television career. “In addition to her Legal career, Jeanine previously hosted her own Fox News Show, Justice with Judge Jeanine, for ten years, and is currently Co-Host of The Five, one of the Highest Rated Shows on Television,” Trump added.”
call in more clowns
“Trump picks conspiracy theorist ‘wellness influencer’ Casey Means with no medical license to replace Fox contributor as Surgeon General”
“Means, who completed her initial medical education at Stanford University’s medical school but dropped out of an ear, nose and throat residency program at the University of Oregon and currently has no active medical license”
Wow the Red Sea’s real name is “Sea of Drowned F/A-18s”?
“New KC-46 Remote Vision System Slips Another 18 Months, to Summer 2027”
“The Air Force and Boeing are now projecting that they will field the Remote Vision System 2.0 on the KC-46 tanker by summer 2027. The new date is nearly two years longer than previously anticipated, and four years later than originally expected.”
“Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin first reported the schedule slip during a House Appropriations Committee hearing, saying RVS 2.0 remains the “pacing item” among the KC-46’s half-dozen or so deficiencies, and “we’re probably looking at another 18 months” before it is corrected.”
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/new-kc-46-rvs-slips-summer-2027/
In-effing-credible. Why not simply say “never”?
The Air Force should simply order the rvs system on the airbus offering and install it on the Boeing KC46 and be done with it. At this rate it would probably be the quickest and cheapest approach to get a matured working rvs system on board the Boeing
Because Americans are special. What if someone plants a back door? Doh!
“back door”
You think a US native source does anything to alleviate that risk?
( Displacing Huawai happened because they would not allow backdooring by US 3-Letter people. And due to the dangers of Chineese snooping. The US is the global “Ober-Snoop” 🙂
Back doors not by them or under their thumbs = BAD!
That’s why they live in fear.
Snooping vs espionage and stealing?
I guess its good to have stuff people want to steal.
The Airbus system would need to be modified to fit in the KC-46A. If that was the path (and no disagreement it would have been smart) then it would have needed to be a call from the start not half way (maybe) through it.
Why the USAF failed to try that path not a clue. I thought it was worth exploring. There may have been adaptation reasons not to.
Keep in mind half that system is USAF spec and they messed up their specs (wide vision part).
Everyone spies on everyone else and its a question of do you run a Gulag or not. I prefer places like most of Europe that do not. The US does not either. Not that the OA would not if he could.
TW
👇 Dictionary:
> Backdoor. a secret access point or undocumented vulnerability in a software program, hardware component, or digital network, sometimes intentionally maintained as for remote developer access, but also sometimes created or exploited for unauthorized access by hackers
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/backdoor
I was talking about intentionally placed backdoors
by the state ( and using a gag order to hide the fact ).
Those excessively bright kids never think about the fallout
of their acts.
@Abalone
As reported in April:
> By early 2025, 43 A320 family aircraft have flown but remain undelivered, while 70 more are assembled but yet to fly. Among these, 43 are awaiting Leap engines.
Additionally, first-flight data from March shows a production increase, with 53 flights recorded—up from 42 in February and 38 in January.
Reuters
> Three fighter jets crashed in India’s Jammu and Kashmir territory on Wednesday, four local government sources told Reuters, hours after India said it struck nine Pakistani “terrorist infrastructure” sites across the border.
A Pakistani military spokesperson told Reuters five Indian aircraft had been shot down, a claim not confirmed by India.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-05-06/three-fighter-jets-crashed-in-indias-jammu-and-kashmir-local-govt-sources-say
> New: A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat.[…]
The French official told CNN that French authorities were looking into whether more than one Rafale jets were shot down by Pakistan overnight.
https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1920142813498311108
Yea that was interesting. Those long range missile exchanges are not air to air combat like we knew.
I am surprised it was a Rafale, its supposed to have a very good self defense system. But mistakes by the Area controller or the pilot all can defeat the best tech.
Pakistan has the better AWACs systems. One of its few advantages.
Looks like a PL-15E misled or more than one landed intact in India so auction that one off to the US for assessment (after they do their own)
Basically this type of combat is a long distance missile lobbing. Lots of aircraft and it gets convoluted at best.
“Looks like a PL-15E misled or more than one landed intact..”
Look closer! Look closer!
TW,
Verify, verify and verify! You have to triangulate, there is so much disinformation and misinformation going on, don’t you know? Lmao
It’s open secrets.
> Indian media making it to the pages of the NYT
“How the Indian Media Amplified Falsehoods in the Drumbeat of War”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GrSLi1EXcAAWvMF?format=jpg&name=medium
Wow, they’re serious this time??
> Major development inside Boeing today: Brian Yutko is leaving Wisk as its CEO to become vice president of product development for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, representing a generational changing of the guard inside the plane maker.
https://bsky.app/profile/jonostrower.com/post/3loluchliva2k
Mmm. Is less experienced better?
If there is a company that is crying out for *getting back to basics*, it’s Boing. Start w/ certifying 737-7, 737-10,
777-X.. Instead, start w/ a dude from “Wisk”- and maybe a DEI Tranny, too.
No further comment at this time.
RE A220-500, I think the A220 stretch would be driven by more capacity over range. A new wing would IMO not be required for Europe, US east coast, China, SE Asia etc. and only weaken the business case.
Apart from that, there seems no business case to challenge their own A320NEO, with its cockpit commonality, container capability and up to 186 passengers. https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/EasyJet_Airlines/EasyJet_Airlines_Airbus_A320_V2.php
A 3.7m (176 seats) same MTOW stretch would still offer a range of approxm 2900NM, more than enough for the freseen operators / markets. Operators like AF, DL and QF that have A320/321s anyway.
https://groups.google.com/group/aviation_innovation/attach/58e8ea931803c/Flies%20scrapbook%20NB%201.5.jpg?part=0.1&view=1
I think the CS stretch was incorporated in the design before 2010 when Bombardier up-scaled the wing, MTOW, range, engines. (Which makes the A220-100) less competitive now IMO).
@keesje
You would fundamentally need to convince yourself that you are going to sell more aircraft. The A220 does not have a particularly large installed base…it would be a nice add-on for any operator that does not already fly the A320 like Breeze or Air Baltic…but if the benefits are in the same ballpark as the A320…not sure how many A320 operators who are going to be interested.
Casey has the crux of it. The next move up is the A321 and you have zero commonality with it.
Delta is a one off. They have sought out those 130 seat markets. Most carrier (all? maybe one in Europe) in that arena don’t want to operate anything less than an A320 (MAX-8 being a tad higher).
2900 miles is nebulous for a full capability as you have to take reserves, diversions and winds out of that.
All Airbus has so far is losses on the program and they got it for the proverbial Euro. Now they are “loaning” Spirit money to keep wings going.
How much is this going to cost Airbus to keep it out of Boeing hands? Is it worth it?
I think a lot of wrong looks as Airbus should re-wing the A320 and move it up to the MAX-9 size. That leaves a slot of the A220-500 though hard telling how viable.
I see a lot of people want Embraer to jump, but are they willing to buy enough product from them? Talk is cheap, money is what counts and unless they commit bucks or Euros or Reals ……………
And talk of a new engine that has to split the market with the P&W, I am not seeing the love.
Don’t get me wrong, I believe an A220-500 would be a very efficient aircraft and improve long term A220 program strenght, justifying production rates of maybe 20-25/ month before the end of the decade. In the efficiency score calculated in the excel (mostly seats/ OEW) is looks better than e.g. A320NEO. Bjorn has been suggesting a new wing / engines, mostly to boost range. That doesn’t seem a feasible business case to me, lots of investment, complication, loss of commonality while the A320 does fine. (An optimized A320+ 3-4 row stretch 199 seater (~739-9 size as you say) seems a good idea, but thats another story)
@Keesje
Your first move might be to consider a re-winged A321. You are fundamentally entering a new market segment at that point and you would have all the commonality with the existing neo program.
For those operators looking to avoid widebody acquisition this might be an elegant solution to expanding their operations.
A new wing would be required for a serious capacity / range increase, MoM/ NMA territory. A new programma with new considerations/ alternative solutions..
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-w0yvq58-h2M/WVuATjJFU0I/AAAAAAAABK4/RKFBEiw4WT83RjRqZa3UdwaP8kURPFHOQCLcBGAs/s1600/Airbus%2BBoeing%2BA322%2BMoM%2BConcept%2Bkeesje%2B737%2BMAX%2BA320NEO.jpg
@Casey
I believe AB is working on a new wing. They may even go for a new program to accommodate the next-generation engine (eg RISE or other tech).
https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-03-airbus-advances-key-technologies-for-next-generation-single-aisle
https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/airbus-touts-open-fan-engines-and-folding-wing-designs-for-next-narrowbody-jet/162348.article
Oh just to be clear, I was referring to the A320 family aircraft, not the A220s
To me the A320 with a re-wing and a stretch is the answer for Airbus.
The A220 is going to forever be a stand alone and I see no movement to a A220/A321 combination developing (one offs yes but not in airline mass)
Also to be kept in mind is gate limitations. That might argue for an A220 but would have to review what it has vs what the maximum gate allowance would be.
I think the A321 has been taken as far as makes sense. 200 seats is probably still the center if not 190.
A321 gives you a lot of flexibility in putting high paying seats and still have enough cattle class.
so much for US tariffs on steel
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Is Tanking. Steel-Mill Shutdowns Aren’t a Good Sign.
“Wednesday evening, Cleveland-Cliffs announced an adjusted Ebitda loss of $174 million”
“Beyond the loss, Cleveland-Cliffs is idling facilities, and cutting hours at others to “optimize its footprint, reposition away from loss-making operations, and release excess working capital,” reads part of a news release.
Two iron mines in Minnesota, a blast furnace, an oxygen furnace, and a steel caster in Michigan are being idled. Two operations in Pennsylvania and an Illinois mill also face reduced output. Capital spending on a West Virginia project has also been halted.”
When you don’t invest in new mfg technologies for decades and have obsolete facilities, no amount of tariff protection will help
see what happens when you tell the truth in the Trump Admin
Cameron Hamilton, the acting disaster chief, appeared to contradict Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem by defending the agency on Wednesday.
The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency was fired Thursday morning and replaced by a Trump administration official with no disaster response experience.
“I do not believe it is in the best interests of the American people to eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency,” Hamilton said at the hearing on Wednesday.”
> More USAF KC-46 news: 21 aircraft had cracks, all but 3 have been cleared to return to flight. First delivery since last fall is expected next week.
https://x.com/beverstine/status/1920203709058891786
Told you.
Now the vision system being set back another year, has to be irritating the USAF but what is not being said if its the wide part that is their part to pay for or the narrow part.
Is this normal to have cracks in aileron hinges in 21 of 89 aircraft, and two are brand new?? The KC-46A was first delivered in 2019, barely six years ago!
Do we know what’s the root cause? Shrugged??
We don’t, they do.
Nothing more than a process fix. A380 had that issue in spades with the wing shimming.
While a bigger deal it happens. they understood it, fix was not hard, retrofix was costly but also not hard.
wrong.
“shimming problems” is a Boeing thing.
the A380 rib issue got early exposure via QF32 but discovery later during scheduled inspection would have been early enough.
Uwe:
You deny in one hand and admit in the other.
Airbus has a shim/fit/squeeze issue on the A380 wings. Entire wings on all built A380 had to be fixed. It was hugely costly.
Its not a knock on Airbus. Problems like that happen.
Boeing is a mix of their internal issues and things happen. Airbus is good about it not being a system problem. The coating on the A350 was an issue. The only way to test systems is through use. It a balance between testing and, ok, we think we are good and keep an eye on things on the maint checks.
Frankly I don’t know if the rib/shim issue would have been spotted on a maint check or not. What someone says vs reality is not the same often. We hope so. At worst QF32 showed it up sooner so they could fix new builds before delivered and avoided re-build costs.
Boeing had some old NGs that they found the Y issue on. A few had it and most did not. Obviously it was a, oh, we see it now.
Unlike some, its an item of note not a knock on Airbus. I have no doubts they are generally well managed.
I also don’t just accept what they say. They have a PR interest. The A350 coating was an issue and they did change the entire process. Obviously it was not malicious. But they did keep it hidden until Qatar spilled the beans.
If Boeing did that certain people would be howling. I don’t believe in double standards.
Call Boeing issues as they are as well as Airbus issues.
Airbus is having some delivery problems. Not huge but annoying. Gains in the A220 but A320 deliveries down.
https://archive.ph/4bBM4
Me thinks 75 A320 series is still a ways off
The lack of CFM engines is worrying.
One wonders where the CFM problem specifically lies: with GE, with Safran, or with an external supplier…
@Abalone
The constraints may very well lie with the expectation that CFM is filling a pipeline for Boeing again. The slowdown may very well have masked some underlying constraints for some time.
You know who would also be at risk…C919
@Casey:
It opens questions for sure. Manpower can switch but I don’t believe any components internal to the engine are common. Obviously starters and generators probably are common so a hold up there would be ????
I would think CFM would have an eye on manpower needs though not a given.
I don’t see CFM shifting to Boeing and dropping Airbus. One is steady and the other erratic.
Can’t even guess what is going on with C919, the engines are far from the only Western parts. Low rate production if any right now…….
“The constraints may very well lie with the expectation that CFM is filling a pipeline for Boeing again. The slowdown may very well have masked some underlying constraints for some time.
You know who would also be at risk…C919”
@TW
Hot section airfoils and castings and burners may very well be identical between Airbus and Boeing. There is benefit to having an identical part number even if the final product is sub-optimized. Low-spool, you are probably right, not much you can do to migrate from one installation to the other. I will say that it really comes down to billet and forging sizes.
I would hazard to guess that 95% of the A320 engine is absolutely part number identical to the C919. Unlike the Max version that is constrainted by fan diameter, the A320 version is not constrained.
That is the toll an airframer like COMAC pays for producing a low-volume aircraft…no engine maker is going to be excited about producing a completely unique supply chain for thin volumes. My guess is that CFM agreed to source a fair number of their parts from Chinese suppliers to secure the deal. Where there is deviation is probably in the fan area where airframe installation mount and plumbing parameters may differ, though both are twin-engine aircraft installations.
I can think of a few engines that had almost identical BOMs amongst airframers.
Certainly some of the fundamental pieces like forgings and castings can be the same even if the finished product is not and those tend to be the chronic shortages.
Interesting thoughts on the 919. CFM knew better than to share tech so anything that requires a treating process would be out for them to make in China. Haven’t read anything on that end.
But yea, it could well be a direct knock off of A320 LEAP, miner changes for different mounting. That would put assembly in Europe whi9ch makes for interesting conjecture (I think k the tariff thing is going to be negotiated back down to what it was)
Right now its CFM or nothing. Not that they can’t make an engine but the difference between a military engine where low MTF and in aircraft time is low vs a viable commercial engine, its a different ball game. Russia can do it but they have a background in it. I doubt they had the reliability or longevity of the Western engines.
SFC is a coin flip if everyone is forced t o take the same aircraft as in China, so its a level playing field.
Maybe the Russians will sell the MS-21 engine to them? Be an interesting twist. China is not going to buy the MS-21. Stuck with the 919. Too much of an ego blow. They put all their cards on that bird.
The MC 21 engine is the PW corollary to the C919. The PW1400 was actually certified though not on the MC21 as the war stopped that effort before it could conclude. It is conceivable, though doubtful after a while that an Ukraine peace deal makes that a viable installation again. That was almost identical to the neo engine.
I can think of other ways CFM could have “bought in” to the C919. Setting up a FAL. Discounted aftermarket agreements. A lot of industrial trade offs. Turbine components are usually the closest guarded secrets. Forging a lesser secret but requiring massive isostatic presses that take years to source. There are still lots of lower tech parts that can come from anywhere without invoking ITAR considerations.
According to Airbus CEO Faury as reported on April 30, 2025:
> He says the situation will probably continue to the end of summer with a ”likely” increase in the number of such “gliders”, resulting in “rather soft” delivery numbers for the first half before they normalise in the second to meet the guidance figures.
@Casey
May be CFM diverts engines (as well as to engine lessors as spares) as more aircraft start to have shop visits.
FG: A320neo-family ‘gliders’ drag down Airbus delivery figures
> Airbus achieved the same level of A350 deliveries as last year, a total of 13, while A220 deliveries increased from 15 to 24.
https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/a320neo-family-gliders-drag-down-airbus-delivery-figures/162903.article
It’s reported that by the end of Q1, there’re a substantial number of A320 family aircraft that were rolled out of the FAL but haven’t flown yet.
AW:
> Airbus delivered 56 aircraft to customers in April in what proved to be another difficult month hampered by supply chain issues. The manufacturer handed over 43 A320neo family aircraft amid a shortage of CFM International Leap-1A engines and with inventory continuing to grow.
Time to play ball.
AW:
> Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury noted that China’s recent decision to no longer allow future Boeing aircraft deliveries and equipment purchases from US companies is “obviously good news” for his company
Bloomberg: EU to Hit Boeing, US Cars With Tariffs If Trade Talks Fail
> A surcharge on Boeing sales would help equalize a playing field that EU officials consider unfair to Toulouse, France-based Airbus SE, whose imports to the US are now subject to tariffs, one person said.
Slapping Boeing with tariffs also would punish America’s biggest manufacturing exporter, should the EU decide to counter the unilateral levies Trump imposed on the bloc along with dozens of other US trading partners. The simultaneous US tariff war with China already is squeezing Boeing, with Beijing telling airlines to refrain from taking delivery of its jets.
> Aerospace products and parts are a major component of US exports to the EU, totaling $35.3 billion in 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-plans-hit-boeing-tariffs-104422699.html
“Newark air traffic controllers lost contact with planes again in overnight outage”
“Air traffic controllers who guide planes in and out of Newark Liberty International Airport lost radar and communication with aircraft before dawn on Friday in another 90-second outage, the Federal Aviation Administration said, hours after the Trump administration unveiled a plan to overhaul the aging technology that keeps U.S. airspace space safe.
“The outage occurred at about 3:55 a.m. ET, the FAA said. There are far fewer aircraft flying overnight, so disruptions were minimal compared with a similar outage on the afternoon of April 28, which snarled air travel for days.”
“Like in the April incident, Friday’s outage left controllers unable to communicate with aircraft and their radar screens dark.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/09/newark-airport-air-traffic-controllers-radar-outage-planes.html
Bloomberg:
> Exclusive: Airlines and the FAA are considering a broad pullback of flights at Newark airport after radar outages
Don’t forget, its all Bidens fault!
IAG has just ordered 27 A330neos, in adddition to 6 A350-1000s, 32 787s and 6 777-9s.
The A330neo order book has now swollen to over 400 frames — not bad for a plane that many considered to be an irrelevant runt.
https://onemileatatime.com/news/iag-orders-airbus-boeing-jets-fleet-renewal/
A350 orders are now just under 1400.
787 orders have climbed to 2040.
777X orders are now at 511.
Actually, it was 21 A330 neos ordered, not 27 !!
Did not you read your own link?
Yeah, 21 A330neos and 12 A350s…sorry for the mix-up.
***
How are your neighbors doing? 😉
Any garden parties planned? 😅
That is getting to nice numbers for the A330NEO.
You have to wonder at what price to the A350 though.
Before the A330NEO was brought out, I can’t think of an Airline that did not shift to the A350.
Hawaii wanted the A350 short, then they settles for the Medium and then they got 787s. Alaska Airlines is probably happier with that though I never like that merger. Making a go of Hawaii is a rough slog and AK has a good network.
“It’s Real Y’all”: People Are Sharing Their Tariff Receipts, And My Wallet Is Not Ready For What’s Coming
Here are real world examples of tariffs
https://www.buzzfeed.com/meganeliscomb/trump-tariff-receipts-may-2025
On another topic for the week, 10% tariffs on Rolls Royce cars from the UK and 145% tariff on Barbie dolls from China
‘10% tariffs on Rolls Royce cars from the UK’
While US auto makers are stuck paying 25% tariffs on stuff crossing the border with Canada.
I would ask someone to please make sense of that, but…
If you could understand it you would be a mentally bent as the Orange One.
The “Mar-a-lago exceptionalism”
“Rolls Royces,
Bentleys,
Aston Martins,
Jaguars,
Land Rovers and Minis,
I think I pretty much just described the Mar-a-lago parking lot right there…”
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1921343674509586448
> If you’re not at the table, you’re on the table.
Ask not what you can do for your country, ask what you can gain from your country.
Ask not what you can you DO to your country.
M&M commercial here:
“This is not the guest list! It is the menu :-)”
LMAO
Reuters: US opens national security probe into imported commercial jets, engines
> the U.S. …enjoyed a $75 billion annual trade surplus from this sector
> Airline executives have raised the possibility of returning leased planes and deferring aircraft deliveries.
US opens national security probe into imported Barbie Dolls lol
As my brother would say, you could not write this stuff and have anyone buy it, but here it is. Even Bizaro Sci Fi!
Why take as other than what it is: theatre.
Think ‘Truman Show’
In other news, supposedly BA are considering re-engining the 767. Supposedly. Sorry, no link.
@Vincent
Wrt the B767, it’s not the worst idea in the world.
I can think of a few reasons
1) If I am the USAF, there is something to be said about sourcing an engine that is still in commercial production and will be much more supportable than the CF6 or PW4000 that have seen their day. Also vastly improves economics of the tanker.
2) Boeing may have come to the conclusion that a B787F is a tough nut to crack (or impossible). May have also come to the conclusion that it was cost prohibitive or would have taken too long.
3) Allows Boeing to focus on bringing B777X-F to market faster. One fewer development project to deal with.
4) The B767 production line is already running.
.. and that ready, near-endless freighter market.
It’s not FBW, but do customers care? (panel is already upgraded in the KC-46). Lots of engines
sitting on the shelf..
Crazier things have happened- and I’m a sucker for the 767. 😉
This is a bandaid to maintain an aircraft for freighters and tankers. I can think of 3 or 4 operators total.
Nobody is reintroducing a 767RE for pax service. In this case, good enough is better than nothing at all.
Delta may have something to say about that.
MOL looking up phone number and email of COMAC frantically.
@Vicent:
I am a sucker as well. I have not flown an A330 but did an A300 back in the 80s and I liked it (not keen on the over-water flight on two engines but I was impressed with how solid it was, not at all like a rattly DC-10)
But I got to fly a 767 and that was the best.
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Friend_Cayla
quite useful as a “security risk” 🙂
Would the net efficiency of a re-engined 767-300 (say) be significantly worse than a clean-slate aircraft?
It seems to me that a point of diminishing returns is close at hand, all things considered. I am no expert, though.
It really depends on the end user. As it relates to freighter and tanker usage, DOCs matters less. The utilization is maybe a third of pax usage. It really comes down to acquisition costs.
For Boeing I almost see it as a case of “where do i spend my limited resources” that are not already committed.
At some point, the B787 is going to need a refresh. The Max is already past due. A new fighter in development (and maybe more). Senior management may be coming to the conclusion that they cannot affort to commit what little they have towards a suboptimal return.
And i will also say that single aisle may really require two aircraft not one. You are not covering the 130-225 seat range with one plane to compete with A220/A320.
Nobody was complaining about the B767F as it is sold today. ICAO put it out of business. A new tranche of tanker orders could come with better range from upgraded engines too. The existing backlog is already 2/3 delivered and winds up in 2028 (I think). It would be hard to justify that line just for tankers given the thin delivery rate (1/mo).
Thanks for this comment. One possible wrench in the gears
is if the 737-7 and -10 continue to have certification
issues and delays. The ROI of a re-engined 767 might
be a surer bet (though I’m grossly speculating), given
the in-place -F stream.
Now you are hitting on the fundamental problem with Boeing engineering. They cannot certify anything currently. They have not certified anything (and I mean anything) since the Max9 in Feb 2018. It is hard to get excited about launching anything new until they can get something else off their plate.
I can think of commercial remedies to flipping Max7 and Max10 to Max8 and Max9 deliveries. Moreover, until Boeing is able to deliver aircraft at rate, they will never deplete their backlog.
If i was going to “replace” the B767 it would be with a MOM aircraft that covers the 200-250 seat range that would at least have Pax capabilities…which is slightly less than the previous 767-300. If you cancelled the Max10 and launched that aircraft there would be no overlap…though the -F version would likely be last in line.
Well they certified the -9 using a -7!
Hmm who should I trust??
> The Boeing 737 MAX 9’s first test flight took place on April 13, 2017, at Renton Field in Washington State. The flight lasted for two hours and 45 minutes, during which the plane flew across Washington before landing at Seattle’s Boeing Field. The pilot was Boeing chief deputy test pilot Capt. Christine Walsh.
The maiden flight of the 737 MAX 9 was a success, with the aircraft demonstrating its capabilities and completing all planned test points.
First (test) Flight != Certification.
IMU the reworked MCAS was showcased and certified on a MAX7 (prototype) ?
Yeah, probably TW is confused by his “fuzzy” logic.
“re-engined 767”
What about double Leaps in a twinned gondola?
🙂
Leeham has done the studies and a re-engine 767 made no sense.
But the idea is right as you get most of the efficiency gains with new engines so you would have a viable bird.
I don’t see the USAF changing engines though. Not worth it. The tankers tend to few hours relatively speaking.
Why they went with the PW4000 on the KC-46A I never got. But it has a huge base and you can still rebuild a JT-8.
@TW
When the tanker was originally proposed the B787 engines were relatively fresh to EIS. I think the USAF (for a tanker) would rather have cheap and reliable any day. Moreover, ICAO retirement was not yet a thing. At the time, the entire order of tankers should have been delivered by (crude guess) 2015 and then onto KC-Y. This should have been old news by now.
However, there is going to be a point where the tankers are more difficult to support. Nobody wants to make parts at that point.
There is chatter about re-engining the C17 (not sure with what though). The B52 is also getting re-engined. At a certain point, an engine line is no longer viable through conventional means. For the tanker, most conventional PAX service should be done by the 2040s (PW4000 was never on the the 767F).
@Casey:
USAF would not have been willing to pay for engine upgrade simply because the hours flying (800 a year roughly) do not justify it.
A330 did not have NEO at the time.
USAF can stockpile parts. But old engines are always going to be an issue. They still manage the AWACs with old engines (the larger CFM size engine causes issues with the Radar, ergo a good reason for E-7.)
C5 had the same problem. CF6 I believe.
The problem with a 767 re-engine is like Airbus on the A330, you have to correct things for the engine and then various obvious tweaks.
Its not simple. The CFM on the 707 seems to be the simplest done (DC-8 as well).
But unless the engine justifies it, then the program cost goes up and what is the return? They are still flying MD-11 for cargo and if that is not an old engine? (well engines).
Also it should be noted, the USAF is not hemmed in by the emissions regs. Boeing can build KC-46A till the Universe ends.
For a 767F, a new engine does not pay as they don’t use them as hard as a pax operation does. New cost goes up and then UPS/FedEx etc shift to conversions.
787F will be a good project for Boeing as it will keep the engineers working on things.
At this point an A330NEO F would be a good project for Airbus (or so I think). But you can mesh that with the 400 for Pax and offset costs and a better deal.
The 767NEO would need to have pax demand and maybe it would, they have the 787 overlay in the form of the KC-46A (rare good move by the USAF).
Would a Pax 767NEO sell? Maybe. Only Boeing can tell you what interest there is in that. Some I am sure but a NEO project?
Airlines would have to tell you how that would mesh or not justify.
Some airlines are using 787s like 767s. But then some A320 and MAX (NG etc) do short 200 mile hops at times.
So, not only the data of one airline but all of them and……..
Boeing is where that information would come together and they arn’t talking.
“USAF would not have been willing to pay for engine upgrade simply because the hours flying (800 a year roughly) do not justify it.”
Oh boy the Pentagon is eager to have a modern engine available for the C-17 and others like a tanker.
@TW
Couple things…believe it or not the same PW4000 or CF6 on the B767 are on the MD-11 (minor tweaks).
As far as tankers goes…I really do not understand how Boeing keeps a line open for 1 aircraft per month once the current freighter goes away.
@Pedro
Yea there has been a lot of noise about re-engining the C17. That is an even harder sell. The last engines developed in that thrust class were for the B757. There has even been chatter about government funding an engine for that installation to kickstart things. Seems like a bad idea for now. The F117 (PW2000) on the C17 is not “that old” and there are still B757 still flying. This idea might make sense if the MOM aircraft ever is kicked off.
> EXCLUSIVE: Trump administration poised to accept ‘palace in the sky’ as a gift for Trump from Qatar: Sources: https://t.co/LWNK6ysuEO
https://x.com/ABC/status/1921525072730239023
“Two of the sources also confirm that ownership of the plane will be transferred to the Trump presidential library foundation once the president ends his second term.”
“”Republicans Against Trump,” which has almost 900,000 followers on X, wrote Sunday: “A few weeks ago, the Trump family business signed a deal to build a luxury golf resort in Qatar. A foreign monarchy (that funds and hosts terrorists) giving the U.S. president a $400M jet while cutting deals with his business? Textbook corruption.”
“…that funds and hosts terrorists…”
The world urgently needs a standardized definition of the concept of “terrorist”…e.g. as upposed to “insurgent”, “freedom fighter”, etc.
***
Presumably, the new Pimp Force One will be painted in the presidential color scheme devised by Trump?
Getting over the edge of the skis
The idea is stupid as the conversion needed to have President basic coms would be huge.
That and purge the chips in the systems (replace).
There is no legal mechanism to give USAF aircraft away.
Another stupid diversion thing.
Just like the China tariff garbage that had no goal and got nothing.
“A foreign monarchy (that funds and hosts terrorists) ”
The US is not a monarchy ( yet ) but the funding of terrorism thing is even worse.
Yea we all have our histories do we not?
inane comment, as expected.
NOTE:
PAST vs PRESENT and FUTURE.
( and Mr. A.H. was financed by US banksters
in a way you can tag that as “financing extreme terrorism” )
Padishah Emperor
we have entered Frank Herbert’s “Dune” Timeline.
( borrowing from the Ottoman Empire 🙂
So the US is not transforming into a religious dictatorship after all
but into a post byzantine “something”.
Ok, he is corrupt, what is anyone doing about it? Can do about it?
How about talk about aircraft?
The *new* Trump Force One won’t be ready until after 2028 – Report 😱
EU Set To Impose Tariffs On Boeing Imports
> Boeing’s expected deliveries to EU airline operators for the remainder of 2025 totaled 58 aircraft, TD Cowen analysts said in a May 7 report to investor clients.
Boeing’s official backlog to European airlines represents 18% of Boeing’s large commercial aircraft backlog, although only 720 aircraft are to customers based in EU member states, or 11.4%. Still, the analysts caution the official numbers may understate Boeing’s actual exposure as 762 aircraft on order are destined to “unidentified” customers.
“Boeing may need to backfill about 50 aircraft destined to Chinese airlines this year, and the EU tariff dynamic may add to this total, depending on the severity of the EU tariffs should they occur,” the TD Cowen analysts said.
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/eu-set-impose-tariffs-boeing-imports
> […] An initial issue is that major U.S. airlines have suspended all financial guidance for the current year. This reflects a far broader range of issues than just tariffs but highlights the degree to which economic turmoil is damaging consumer and business confidence and hence a propensity to fly. It is starting to look like a real possibility that this could turn what has, for civil aerospace, been a supply-constrained upturn into a demand-driven downturn.
A broader problem is an emerging perception from America’s trading partners and allies that tariffs have become highly weaponized, to be used in a broader fight by the U.S. against China. The issue is less whether Europe, in particular, wants to be part of this fight. Rather, it is an emerging concern that this might be a new, and potentially more economically damaging, way of conducting trade negotiations, in which former political and cultural alliances carry little if any weight.
It might not be a surprise, but U.S. companies will undoubtedly suffer if the Chinese market now closes to Boeing. Chinese airlines are well-equipped, with a low average age of about 11 years, so they can afford to let their fleets age out. Agency Partners analysis shows that with low domestic growth, demand is for fewer than 150 new jets per year, most of which Airbus could supply in the near term. And we should expect the indigenous CJ-1000 turbofan, set to replace the CFM Leap-1C on the Comac C919 airliner, to see greatly increased national funding.
But the U.S. engine companies’ challenges might not stop in China. A U.S. government that can threaten to halt deliveries to one country might one day do this elsewhere. This is leading to an uncomfortable realization among some European politicians that *it might not be sensible for Europe’s civil aerospace champion to be wholly dependent on U.S. engines to power all its narrowbody aircraft, constituting nearly 90% of Airbus’ output*.
https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manufacturing-supply-chain/opinion-us-tariffs-have-opened-larger-pandoras-box
“…it might not be sensible for Europe’s civil aerospace champion to be wholly dependent on U.S. engines to power all its narrowbody aircraft, constituting nearly 90% of Airbus’ output…”
So, the penny is finally starting to drop…certainly took long enough.
I can imagine that Ursula is arranging a working lunch with the CEOs of Safran, MTU, Saab, etc. High-time for a pan-EU engine manufacturer with a purely EU supply chain.
CFM is a great success…but it’s time to de-couple.
Whatever
Buy engines from China, that solves all your problems
Airbus and Europe don’t need Chinese engines. There are enough European based engine manufacturers such as Rolls Royce in the UK, MTU in Germany, Safran in France, ITP Aero in Spain, and PZL Mielec in Poland. Outside the EU Ukraine has Motor Sich the designers and builders of the Ivchenko-Progress Turbofans on the Antonov line of jetliners and freighters that includes the very large AN124s and AN225 freighters. So a consortium of any of these (already many of them partner the USA manufacturers GE and PW) can produce engines for Airbus narrow bodies or Rolls Royce can do it on its own (more probably with work with the others in a consortium). Also note that the Japanese would love a chance to become part of a commercial jet engine manufacturing program (They have 2 capable jet engine manufacturers).
Precisely.
But the European engine landscape is too intertwined with the US — a side effect of the post-war “lovey-dovey” relationship.
Time to drastically reduce such intertwining, so as to reduce risk.
The mil engines Turbo-Union RB199, the EuroJet EJ200 and the Europrop TP400 were/are competitive.
Made by purpose created entities, EU style coop.
@All
There is no such thing as an American or European engine. Components are sourced from the entire world.
@ Casey
You’re talking present tense.
The rest of us are talking future tense.
Continued dependence on US parts — for anything — has become unadvisable…even untenable.
There’s no *fundamental* reason for European engine makers to use foreign parts.
Globalization is dead — sovereign control is now the name of the game.
And hopefully there is a post OA future and his stupidity is on the ash heap of history.
We just have to survive it.
@Branaboy
You are aware that the V2500 has (3 or 5 forget which) Japanese mfgs as part of the group.
Equally while not controlling members, they all have a part in the PW GTF (as does MTU).
Safran tried to come up with a new biz jet engine and failed.
Can Europe make jet engines, no question. RR probably can do it alone. As Casey noted, the procurement of the bits and pieces is world wide and long term we hope the US returns to normal.
The OA is in terror of the mid terms. That is why he is dropping the China trade issue as well as declaring peace with the Houthis.
> White House website now saying “a trade deal” has been reached with China
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gqr2SfwXAAEtyVG?format=jpg&name=900×900
and South China Morning Post says
“US-China agree to ‘trade consultation mechanism’, conduct further talks, He Lifeng says
He pledged that China is ready to work with the US to manage differences and make the ‘pie of cooperation bigger”
“The two sides “have taken important step to resolve differences through equal dialogue and consultation”, plan to issue a joint statement on Monday, and “conduct further consultations on issues of mutual concern”, state news agency Xinhua reported, citing He”
** SAF **
> Within hours of landing in Beijing, Brazil’s President Lula has negotiated a US$1 Billion investment for production & development of cane alcohol-based sustainable airline fuel. Presidential Chief of Staff Rui Costa says this will transform Brazil into the World leader in SAF.
https://x.com/walterladwig/status/1921280480659292646
LA World Cup:
> “LA leaders may say we’re ‘welcoming the world’ but we have put ourselves in a situation where the world is very much not welcomed.”
https://bsky.app/profile/awalkerinla.bsky.social/post/3lotcfmuhkc2c
https://www.torched.la/what-if-the-world-doesnt-come/
> @Austan_Goolsbee [Pres of ChicagoFed] tells @nytimes that despite the reprieve with China, tariffs are likely to still raise prices and lower growth.
He’s in wait-and-see mode and the bar to cut is high “The way that we’re doing this is not free for the economy”
https://x.com/colbyLsmith/status/1921997252282700214
One way or another, it looks as if the basic tariff of 10% is here to stay.
That’s 7 times higher than the old US average tariff figure of 1.4%.
And there’ll still be additional tariffs on top of that, such as for autos, aluminium and steel, etc…maybe also tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semis coming soon.
That’s more than enough to curtail trade.
Add in the rare earth / semiconductor back-and-forth and the situation is still in deadlock.
And what about the special port fees on Chinese ships?
> Breaking: Economists still trying to figure out what concessions on trade China agreed to (I know this sounds sarcastic but it’s true)
https://x.com/CGasparino/status/1921960381741748417
The yields on US treasuries shot up today — the 10-year is currently 4.475%.
So, it appears that bond holders / traders aren’t impressed.
Trump is not going to get the best of both worlds: stock market or lower interest rates, pick one
CNBC: Treasury yields soar on hope a recession will be avoided after temporary China-U.S. deal
CNBC: U.S.-China tariff pause means new surge in freight shipments, and higher prices
Across the pond:
The Spectator
> Instead, President Trump has looked at the potentially devastating impact that cutting the US off from Chinese imports would have on the economy and blinked. He was not ready to ride out the inevitable spike in inflation or the likely recession. For China, that is clearly a victory. US won’t restart the trade war any time soon – and China can resume its long-term plan of turning itself into the world’s dominant economy
China has won the trade war with Trump
https://t.co/nOl6NSqwmc
Oh sorry, dropped this part:
> The US needs China more than China needs the US. With that becoming increasingly clear, the US won’t restart the trade war anytime soon..
True.
But:
News here was all agog with the dear consequences to the Chinese economy.
No word on the much more procounced impact on US economy.
$1 gained from taxing CN imports kills $100++ of US internal value add / revenue creation.
See the Canadian wood milling industry.
Take down was instant recreation time consuming.
( This lead to wood prices going through the roof here in Germany for a time )
Damage is done.
Wow
> .. “multiple US officials” confirming the Houthis nearly shot down [several American F-16 and] an F-35, the most advanced aircraft ever built.
https://x.com/gbrew24/status/1922077099252208114
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqyW72BXsAAnYAW?format=jpg&name=large
NYTimes: Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia
“…F-35, the most advanced aircraft ever built…”
Quoting from LM’s glossy PR brochure?
Who objectively gave it that accolade?
Use the “1984” dictionary for translation. 🙂
The F-35 is the most advanced aircraft ever built.
That does not make it immune.
You guys don’t seem to get that stealth is only RCS. You can still see it and its engines still created heat.
Used wrong its no better than a Rafale.
Yemen is not a place where the F-35 provides any benefits. That assumes any F-35 involved.
Read the story first.
Are you aware of that 30% of the USAF’s stealth bomber fleet were sent over there?? 🙄
“The F-35 is the most advanced aircraft ever built.”
Based on what objective criteria?
Under-powered, under-armed, under-ranged, can’t fly near lightning…criteria like that?
Add outdated (because LM charges top dollar for mediocre cheap stuff) avionics to the above list. That’s why Pentagon is tied to a treadmill of endless updates that will provide untold wealth to LM in the foreseeable future.
To stay in the realm of tangible facts:
The F35 may well be the most complex “Ding” created.
The question remains: is “complexity” a synonym for “advanced”? ( the usual process is : primitive : complex : minimized simpleness )
The F35 is afaics the absolute counter to KISS.
for the sake of variety
Why aren’t Americans filling the manufacturing jobs we already have?
“The average manufacturing worker is also relatively old, and the industry expects a tidal wave of retirements in the coming decade.”
“The Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte projected that the industry will need 3.8 million additional workers by 2033, and that as many as “1.9 million of these jobs could go unfilled if workforce challenges are not addressed.””
“Carolyn Lee, the president and executive director of the Manufacturing Institute, says that roughly half of the open positions in manufacturing require at least a bachelor’s degree.”
“That said, the other half of open manufacturing jobs don’t require a bachelor’s degree. And manufacturers say they are also struggling to fill those.”
For the sake of variety why don’t you give it a rest and stick to Aviation?
last time I checked, US commercial aircraft industry does manufacturing…and yes its aviation!
If and when Boeing ever launches a new commercial aircraft (e.g. 2035?), what will be average age of the Boeing mfg workforce in Seattle region?
Depends on the economy and how many new hires vs veterans at that point.
As nothing is normal anymore, know one knows.
Hmm, aviation is a mfg. I can give you that. Back to the point, 10 years from now we could be in a huge recession as well and then they can’t get rid of people fast enough.
By that time, boomers are gone. Where is BA adding employees? Low cost countries! Microsoft just cut 3% employees.
“…stick to aviation…”
Let’s see:
“TransWorld
May 13, 2025
29 innocent tourists were killed in Kashmir a couple of weeks back. Yea you can question why a tourist would be in Kashmir, but they had done nothing to anyone and they died. More died following that. All wasted lives and impacts on their circles”
Very relevant to aviation…🙈
Anyone agrees that there’re two that stands out? What do you think?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gqwv2_CWUAAXrHv?format=jpg&name=large
“United Airlines Quietly Adds 40 New Aircraft From Boeing Rival”
“The order form was published on May 10, but it wasn’t until two days later that the customer for the jets was revealed. United Airlines strengthened its commitment to Airbus A321neo aircraft with the additional order of 40 more planes.”
“As pointed out by Simple Flying, United already has an aircraft order of more than 150 A321neos and A321XLRs and currently flies more than 35 A321neos. The airline’s affinity for the aircraft comes amid delays in the Boeing 737 MAX 10 program.”
https://www.sanluisobispo.com/living/article306300451.html#storylink=cpy
Reuters: United Airlines exec says it may not get Boeing 737 MAX 10s until 2027 or ’28
Now we know why….
“..from Boeing rival..” was very strange, euphemistic wording.
It’s “Airbus”, bros.
Mmm.
Much is the US press is presented in terms of posture syntax such as “dominance”, “supremecy”, “rivalry”, etc.
Quite pathetic, in many ways.
Agreed.
The USAF has second thought of the E-7
A comment hanging in limbo. How about posting some details?
There is a lot in motion. The USAF has a laundry list of things they want to change.
The reality is, you can buy an E7 or you can buy and Global Eye, those are the only games in town.
The smart move is to get the E7s and like the P-8, start spiral development. Current AWACs are old and falling apart systems wise.
You are not going to bake a cake or make a loaf of bread when your cupboard is bare.
This is quick:
Reuters: US Navy’s New Fighter Jet Threatened by Funding Dispute, Sources Say
Does it signal the future is drones? Aircraft carriers have to be redesigned??
There’s infighting between the Pentagon, the Navy and the Congress 🧐
The current F/A-18 have been in service for like three decades?
Most likely Trump has reached a deal. Hehe. Resist is futile.
Resistance*
“United Airlines exec says it may not get Boeing 737 MAX 10s until 2027 or ’28”
“United Airlines may not take delivery of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 until 2027 or 2028 because of uncertainty about when the plane will be approved for use, an executive for the carrier said Tuesday.
“Boeing has faced significant delays in getting the smaller MAX 7 certified, which must happen before the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration can then certify the larger MAX 10.”
“The FAA must approve an engine de-icing fix for the MAX 7 before it can certify the plane after Boeing in January 2024 withdrew a waiver request.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/united-airlines-exec-says-it-may-not-get-boeing-737-max-10s-until-2027-or-28.html
***
Any day now…just another three-year hurdle to wait out first 🙈
Fascinating. No light at the end of the tunnel even for the -7, so why are they talking about the lipstick-on-a-pig MAX-10?
What an outfit.
Maybe they’re diverting all available resources to the RVS on the KC-46 and the engine mount on the 777X?
Looks like very little butter being spread on a lot of bread.
No wonder Ryanair is p#ssed off — it keeps getting led along.
Are you saying that the MAX is junk? Unsafe? Should be removed from service?
Then that is a matter for EASA.
Other than that, the -10 is what most airlines want vs the -7 and you seem to forget, the -7 was what was used to certify the MCAS 2.0 that was a proved by EASA and the FAA.
Or do you go with the unproven doctrine that EICAS is the end all to be all?
That is the same thinking that got us STALL, STALL, STALL voice that the AF447 pilots ignored .
List me a crash the EICAS stopped?
Its a system, like any system it has possible good points and possible bad points and that has been demonstrated a number of times.
Go to Mentour Pilot, inform yourself. Better yet get a pilots license and then actually know what it is like to fly and deal with the various conditions.
Its easy to push keys and put out no informed opinions.
I have run equipment with the bump steering system that Airbus uses. I was good at it, but I did not like it. The MACK center point steering was far better.
But those who grow up on Airbus or are trained on it generally do not have issues with it. So while I have a preference, I don’t call it a pig. I just don’t think its the best (feedback and proportional movement with a side stick is done and works nicely.
My opinion is a preference to a type of control. But its based on having both a pilots license and having operated both types.
The -10 cert if an extension of the -7 cert as both are bound up in the EASA requirements with the FAA. I can disagree with EASA without saying that they are evil or pigs. Its their belief based on their information its what needs to be done.
Now if they just made Airbus adhere to the third independent system. 3 systems that get afflicted by the same issues (Freeze up of Pitot and AOA) are bad design.
AF447 would not have happened if that was implemented. And yes you can write computer logic that says, ok, we were at 450 knots, we are now below 60.
That is wrong, the Synthetic system has no faults, that becomes primary while pilots assess the pitot system.
The MAX works very well when its built the way it was specified just as an A320 does. Both systems have logic holes that have caused crashes.
One is not statistically better than the other, even with the two tragedies of the -8 crashes and fully acknowledge the impact those had on the passengers and their loved ones and associated circles.
29 innocent tourists were killed in Kashmir a couple of weeks back. Yea you can question why a tourist would be in Kashmir, but they had done nothing to anyone and they died. More died following that. All wasted lives and impacts on their circles.
How many evils and tragedies are out there that are not addressed when some just focus on Boeing?
I think the A319NEO and MAX 7 are inferior to the A220-300, reducing every one’s appetite to invest in them.
A MAX 7 is 6 tonnes heavier than a A220-300, even a A220-500 would be significant lighter.
https://groups.google.com/group/aviation_innovation/attach/58e8ea931803c/Flies%20scrapbook%20NB%201.5.jpg?part=0.1&view=1
No question the -7 is not something to write home about and the A220-300 is clearly better. I advocated for South West to buy it (not that my writing does anything to push a decisions). I did get the advantages of the A220 and that included getting a 2nd source of Aircraft for South West.
But the cert for -7/-10 is a temperate issue and they are bound together for cert. One follows the other. South West still seems committed to the -7.
But the comment was in a manner that called the MAX a Pig and its not. There is a difference between systems but that does not mean the MAX is not a good aircraft. It is. Fully competitive. Boeing management has done it bad service.
Given a choice of an A320NEO, MAX-8 (or -9) or an A220-300/500, I would take the A220 hands down.
By my count Boeing could have delivered 32 x MAX last month. 3 were rejected by China as part of the tariff mess the OA incurred.
Countries have every right to handle the flow of goods and tariffs are a tool you can use. But other than trying to make a hog wallow look pristine, there was not goal other than self angradization.
So the 3 should be delivered this week and we can hopefully remove all the other BS tariff stuff and if there are real issues, discuss it with people.
Europe is not an enemy. OA aside, we share many values while disagreeing on the degree of those. I applaud Europe in dealing with the big tech jerks in a manner that is beneficial to the citizens there.
Its lob side over here to say the least
8 x 787 Delivered in April. Looks like some of the supplier issues are being overcome. Have not seen the breakdown in new build vs the repaired and stored group.
All the April deliveries were new builds, a few of the early May deliveries so far have been from the stored group.
“All the April deliveries were new builds,…”
Eh, let’s see:
LN1210 (EVA, April 9): 0.5 years old.
LN1207 (AA, April 28): 0.4 years old.
So, they rolled off the line months ago.
LN1207 is currently parked at DFW, so still not ready, it seems.
Stop talking B.S.
They’re not parking lot entries,and don’t come off as if they are.
So how many A350’s are there lying around waiting for completion due to supply issues?
I’m sure they were completed months ago as well.
Ofcourse, all is well in AB land and Byrce ,sry. Abalone is always willing to forgive and forget and say nothing to worry about.
Move on doubting Thomas, they had a great month of NEW BUILD deliveries, I suggest you deal with it.
🤣
At BA, it seems that “new” = 6 months old.
Why not just call them “recent build” instead of trying to pass them off as rolling fresh from the line?
Falsely pumping/pimping up the line rate isn’t going to save BA 🙈
@Abalone:
You are being absurd. Airbus and Boeing have supplier issues, in the case of the 787 (and A350 I believe) its interiors.
Obviously it is a supplier issue for both and they can only do so much.
Its a shame you are not in this for a discussion and think scoring some weird points in your head is what it is all about.
Good info from D. Andrews in the breakdown.
Where the hell is Andrews’ breakdown?? From fuzzy logic to hallucination?
@ Pedro
Threads longer than 3 or 4 posts seem to cause confusion to some readers.
Also, note how some readers seem to concentrate on just a single item in a thread — usually the last sentence — and fail to absorb the rest.
🙈
Channel News Asia: “Commentary: China is prepared to freeze out US planemakers anytime”
“People familiar with COMAC and the Civil Aviation Administration of China said the Chinese had anticipated Mr Trump’s moves when he won the elections last November.
““We knew tariffs were coming, there are plans B, C, D and so on,” an official told me. “We saw what happened to the Russians following sanctions (after the Ukraine invasion in 2022) and prepared accordingly.”
“As a result of sanctions, Russian airlines and planemakers were unable to access replacement parts for its jets and were forced to ground aircraft.
“While COMAC may not have publicly conceded to amassing foreign aircraft parts in the past two years, a source in Shanghai, where COMAC is based, suggested there is enough material to “make hundreds of aircraft in the next few years”.
“COMAC is believed to have stockpiled at least 1,000 LEAP engines, specifically the LEAP-1C, which powers the C919, a single-aisle jet that competes directly with Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX.”
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/boeing-china-comac-trump-tariffs-us-planemaker-airline-5126206
***
1000 LEAP-1Cs stockpiled?
Sounds rather rich, but who knows?
One way or another, the message is clear: the Chinese saw this coming and prepared accordingly.
@Abalone
1000 engines sounds like a typo. COMAC was only planning 75 deliveries this year (as of March).
Thinking that should be “100 engines” and even that might be optimistic.
You run into preservation issues if you make engines too far in advance.
Let alone CFM putting resources into delivering engines that are not used when engines that are in demand are not sufficient (be it under repair or upgrades to resolve issues)
So yea its absurd and unless its backed up by an independent source, believing propaganda is not the way to reality. Using it to twist things, hmmm
“…believing propaganda is not the way to reality. ”
Remember that the next time you repeat stale assertions from the F-35 PR brochure 😉
Further: as long as CFM gets paid, it doesn’t have to care what the buyer does with its engines.
@ Casey
We’ll know soon enough.
The article says that stockpiling began after the imposition of Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia — so that’s three years.
There’s also no indication that the stockpile is just for this year’s C919 production.
BA is also stockpiling engines, without preservation issues:
“Boeing has a ‘three-digit’ stockpile of LEAP-1B engines,…”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/engine-maker-safran-upbeat-boeing-737-max-production-this-year-2025-02-14/
You can’t tell the difference between engines ordered and stockpiled as well as the program delays and engines taken above build rate.
Keeps getting bigger:
“Boeing to have massive order from Qatar Airways”
“According to News Nation, during President Donald Trump’s visit to Doha Wednesday, Qatar Airways will be announcing an agreement to buy 150 aircraft from Boeing.
“Bloomberg reported the large order will be for wide-body jets and will include an option to purchase more. The media outlet also noted the deal is part of a broader Trump plan to have more countries invest in U.S. manufacturing.”
https://mynorthwest.com/local/boeing-qatar-airways/4087305
Ohh dear.
Delta’s most recent A350 delivery LN 722 still not ready for service. Parked for nearly 2 weeks since delivery, and counting.
Like, that’s never happened before Abby..
We get it, only happens to Boeing!
Yeah right!☺️
“Parked for nearly 2 weeks *since delivery*”
Srsly??
It’s not Airbus’ problem!
More posts with “fuzzy” logic… spreading like a wildfire or an epidemic. Is it in the water?? 😱
You have to make allowances for a considerable degree of agitation!
Also evidenced by posting a reply to the wrong post 🙈
See the thread two places above this one, for a little more context — our friends are trying to pretend that the 787 is now at line rate 8 p/m 😉
Just trying to emulate the ole rivals BBA..
BTW ;
Hey how’s Bondi been?
Has been awhile.
Do give my sincerest regards Abby .
I really miss your accomplices in crime.
Strange,how I still feel a connection to the old gang of yours..
Coincidence..🤔
Not likely 😂😂
Maybe Pedro;
our resident expert still stuck in his 2017 “Time Portal”😂, can shed some light as to why the parked American 787 is Boeing’s problem !
After all , that’s what Bryce seems to think. 🤔
Do share with all why that’s the case..
“Fuzzy logic”.
LN722 isn’t AB’s problem!
Ask that clown cohort of yours why LN1207 is BA’s problem.
Let’s see:
LN 1207 was sent down to KSKF for storage on *Dec 17, 2024*
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE645/history/20241217/1300Z/KCHS/KSKF
In early April LN 1207 flew out of storage.
So what does this tell you?
Shouldn’t BA be responsible for LN 1207 prior to its delivery?
You better calm down, fuzzy logic guy.
No one claimed Boeing is at rate 8 per the 787.
Clearly it was a catch up when interiors started coming through.
Sheese.
Pulling 787s out of storage and delivery does not make a rate jump either.
Its all about averages.
“Its all about averages.”
What averages when Andrews is solely focused on one month!
Of course, its an interesting month to look at.
You guys are the only ones hyper focused on the nano seconds. Its all about negativity even when things are positive.
8 x 787s and all new builds is a very strong indicator that at least some of the supplier issues holding deliveries up have been solved. And the fact that its new build vs Shim Repair builds.
Ergo, there could be a bit of sustained higher deliveries than real rate. None of you spotted that nor the fact it was new builds.
Reality is that the Shim Repaired units may be slower as the interiors need to be updated. Short term it improves cash flow, long term of course its been a hit and was beyond bad.
Regardless its good news for Boeing and its a good note for employees.
They can’t talk about what is going on but the numbers tell a story and yea, we are building at a better rate, no interiors no delivery.
The months after that show long or short term. Its also a moving number as ebbs and peaks. Even a year rate average needs to have how many were delayed just like Airbus is having supplier problems.
The MAX deliveries is also interesting.
So rather than congraulte Andrews on good information you go into auto knock (or never come out of it)
Sycophantic!
From the same poster who said: “Its all about averages.”
Hahaha
$200 billion for 160 jets? Made of gold? Or gold-plated?
Maybe they meant dirhams instead of dollars?
AED 200B = USD 54B.
Or maybe $20B, if NBs are involved?
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/qatar-airways-boeing-agreement-trump
$200 billion according to Trump.
Does it smell fishy??
> “.. based on the most recent published value for its most expensive jet, the 777X, a deal for 160 of the long-range aircraft would be worth some $70 billion. Aviation analysts say that airlines typically get large discounts for bulk deals.”
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-05-14/qatar-signs-200-billion-deal-to-buy-jets-from-boeing-during-trump-visit
Didn’t @Frank P calculate that BA gives an average of 63% discount?
(He did that by calculating total revenue per quarter based on list price and comparing it to actual revenue).
That gives us 37% x $70B = $25.9B.
If we take the 36% operating loss in Q1 as a reference, that would imply a $9.3B loss on this deal for BA 🙈
***
By the way: CNBC is currently talking about 787s in addition to 777Xs…
from Seattle Times
“Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg signed an accord for as many as 210 widebody aircraft from Qatar Airways, including the 787 Dreamliner and the larger 777X model, at a ceremony witnessed by Trump and the Emir of Qatar on Wednesday. The White House said the deal had a value of $96 billion, though customers typically negotiate steep discounts on major deals. ”
“Wednesday’s order will see Qatar buying 130 787 Dreamliners and 30 777X aircraft, with an option to buy an additional 50 widebody aircraft of either type, according to people familiar with the accord”
just a note: wiki shows only 18 A350-1000 (widebodies) in backlog for Qatar
> “The airline is also considering a smaller number of the Airbus A350 aircraft, but is likely to announce that order during the Paris Air Show, Bloomberg reported last week.”
I would guess Qatar wants the engine issue resolved or at least a date it looks to be before they order any more -1000s.
I assume Airbus has shifted to the new coating system now.
Are you sure?
The nightmares of small businesses continue:
Bloomberg: Trump’s Pause on China Tariffs Is Still a ‘Huge Nightmare’ for Small Businesses
> Trump’s sudden move to lower tariffs on Chinese goods is just a limited reprieve for American small businesses running low on inventory and cash
Reuters: U.S. Soybean Exports Risk 20% Drop Without Improved China Deal
China has moved to sources Soy Beans from Brazil so its been in the works and the Soy Bean sales will never come back.
You got to love American Farmers that are enamored with Trump while he destroys their market. But then he takes our money and bribes them and its fine, except they in theory don’t want no dang goberment hand out.
I don’t have a problem with farm support. Its a national need for any country if possible to grow you own core crops. But farmers are a huge beneficiary of Government and as long as they benefit government hand outs are fine.
If you have a goal for trade policy that is one
My understanding was that farming in the US is dominated by corporate activities?
Not exactly. Still massive numbers of family owned farms. They are just not small farms per back in the day.
2500 acres in MidWest is probably the norm and Western US bigger still.
2 million some farms.
What was called Family Farms is now LLC or Corporations of other structure and the successful ones bought out or lease the others.
I followed a Farming Family in MidWest for a while (Trump supporters and I gave up when they got into the political end). Man, Wife, three kids (two of which were working machinery) as well as one to two hired hands and his father. Odd ownership split they did not divulge., tangled, modern business. Completely automated.
Corporations do run the big Cattle Operations, Hogs, Chickens. There is still feed into cattle from smaller operations (I don’t think Pork or Chickens a lot). Livestock is considered farming though most people do not think of it that way.
There are some farms that the owners also have jobs. Those are the very small operations.
The one operation is not unusual and you total up the numbers and support operations in an area and you get to a substantial political block.
You watch interviews and they tell you we can overcome anything, just get out of our way. Regulations ensure clean water and land preservation let alone the infrastructure getting their crops to market.
There is a area they refer to as founding myths for groups and nations that have nothing to do with reality but their beliefs are formed around a fairy tale (The Confederates were all about States Rights not slavery) and they make voting decisions based on that.
Logic does not apply when its into beliefs and not facts.
Alaska had a liberal tradition until we were invaded by the oil pipeline workers from the South and it flipped to a Red States more and more post 80s.
I wonder, for those who also happen to own their land, at the end of the day, do they make more money from farming (incl generous crop insurance from the fed) or land appreciation?
Now I know why everyone is so chipper today;
Boeing just sealed one of largest 787 orders in history , signing the deal for up to 210 Wide-bodies in a landmark deal with Qatar Airways.
Leaving AB out, in which some considered it would be a split order between the 2.
Greg Smith. Interesting 🤪
The firm orders are large but the whole 210 includes 50 options
Who knows, maybe Boeing will make money on the 787 yet! That would frost Bryce.
@ Pedro
Looks like Mr. Andrews is somewhat of a name-changing chameleon…in addition to a double-poster (see below).
Interesting slip for someone who thinks others here have multiple identities 🤔
Now I know why everyone is so chipper today;
Boeing just sealed one of largest 787 orders in history , signing the deal for up to 210 Wide-bodies in a landmark deal with Qatar Airways.
Leaving AB out, in what some considered would be a split order between the 2.
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2025/05/14/qatar-airways-orders-160-boeing-aircraft/
Impressive!
H-U-G-E !
How many 787’s ?
130 Firm. 50 options but have not seen the split on 777X and 787. Roughly 15-35 but that is a guess. It could be more 777X.
Clearly Qatar is playing a game but they have not been happy with Airbus for a while and their only option is Boeing.
So, Boeing benefits. At least its not direct corruption. Quatar has shown a preference for Boeing lately and the mix apparently works for them.
How many times has not a European head of state gone over seas and suddenly huge Airbus orders?
Not too shabby. 162 787’s sold in the past week..
Very impressive indeed.
I know they don’t get delivered that way but its 3 years production at rate 5 though Boeing is working up to 10.
Some time back I made a prediction Boeing would sell 2500 of the 787s and that would be a good number to use for profitability if that was possible (well over my head)
Maybe that is why Airbus is selling A330NEO, can’t make 787s fast enough? (yes that is said with sarcasm).
A330 customers obviously like it.
With the rush of current orders, as well as other large orders looming this year,they should be well on their way to 2500 units sold.
Darn near at 2200 currently.
I had not checked the counts lately.
At this point it looks like easily 3000 and maybe more like 3500
Deep in a $15 billion hole, would BA be able to finally get out this time?
PS: Never underestimate BA’s ability to trip over itself
Haven’t heard of the HGW recently, what happened?
My bad, forgot BA charged off a total of $10.4 billion on 787 program in prior years. Oops.
@ Pedro
BA made an average EBIT loss of ca. $17M on every plane it delivered in Q1.
It’s generated ca. $350B of revenue in the past 5 years, without making a penny of net profit.
The current $32B loss on the 787 program seems to just keep on rising 🙈
The Qatar announcement is a blockbuster order…but will it generate a penny for BA?
Same old argument. How much did Airbus write off on the A380 and A340? A400?
Not question it was not write offs or even mistakes, it was dumping all the profits into stock buy back and dividends (13 billion borrowed to pay a dividend, in what world is that sane?)
So the answer is to quit making airplanes and fold the show.
Or they can make airplanes and pay off the debt, or write it off, clear the books and look to the future.
Its not a matter of the overall losses, its a matter of can they build an aircraft and sell it for a profit?
And its build aircraft or go home. The losses are still there. Build enough 787s and you MAY retire that debt. The calcs are way beyond me though I have challenged Frank P to do some back of the napkin calcs for rough idea.
If Boeing repeats the pattern of no investment into its future, then yes they will go down like a rock.
A lot of us want to see Boeing succeed, not for the managers but the workers, their jobs and the benefit to the country.
So Airbus takes advantage of China situation and a dictatorship and Boeing get Qatar (ME in general). Is Airbus going to not sell to dictators of do it knowing full well what they are doing?
“Or they can make airplanes and pay off the debt, or write it off, clear the books and look to the future.”
You can not write off externally borrowed money.
Wasn’t the MBA trick to maximize profits relative company value?
increase profits
and/or
decrease company value ( balance assets with dept. MBA dream come true : lazy eight from division by zero 🙂
Oh yeah, I’m also asking: “can they build [the 787] and sell it for a profit” under unit cost accounting?
TW,
Both A380 and A350 were gone. Don’t you know??
If I were you, I wouldn’t draw attention to Boeing’s defense business because it hardly is the poster child to boast about. BDS has like half a dozen programs losing money, big money, right?
Uwe,
Reaganomics and Friedman Doctrine continue their ravage. Hard to see how to turn around the ship without a wholesale divorce from the “free economy” doctrines from the 80s. Instead of a full reflection, they turn to a DOGE-style “cultural” revolution, point finger at trade deficits of their own making — persistent government deficits and a consumption-based economy. It’s much easier to blame those “foreigners” — hey that’s why there’s this obsession about tariffs, indiscriminate trade wars with the whole world etc — than a good ol reflection and confession.
Boeing’s looming issue is deliveries and not orders.
An even-more urgent issue: generating positive earnings from deliveries.
Of note:
LNA has pointed out that delivering the entire order book won’t be enough to pay off debt.
@Abalone
Easy. Raise the accounting block in program accounting, sprinkle some magic dust. Voila.
JeJu Crash: Of serious interest, it looks like they have a pretty solid data line for what happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ie86dw0QN0
We will never know why a go around as continued landing vs going through a flock of birds would be what would be normal actions. So one bad decision though we all make those.
Compounded by a decision not to ditch straight ahead vs turn back. It is one thing drummed into pilots, pick your best spot ahead on power loss, do not try to turn back. With maybe 75% on one engine and no altitude, its amazing they got it turned but then the no gear down, no flaps and going off the end of the runway that was going to end badly at best and tragically in this case.
You forgot to mention the lack of electrical power.
Strange that the pilots didn’t get the APU started — Sully managed to start his APU immediately after his birdstrike.
Then again, Sully had a quiet cockpit, and could think…whereas the Jeju pilots had the signature 737 cacophony of alarms going off 🙈
How do you know it’s better to “ditch straight ahead vs turn back”?
An evidence free claim.
The rapprochement with China didn’t last long:
“Trump administration’s next wave of China AI chip export rules are yet another obstacle for Nvidia”
“As Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was in Saudi Arabia announcing the Blackwell deal, the Trump administration released a new round of AI chip restrictions targeting China.
“The Commerce Department issued a warning against the use of U.S. AI chips for Chinese models and singled out “diversion tactics” and securing supply chains to target smuggling.
“The release also singled out Chinese tech giant Huawei, labeling the use of the company’s Ascend chips “anywhere in the world” a violation of the export controls.
“The new export restrictions came days after the U.S. and China agreed to pause most tariffs on each other, and add another layer of controls for Nvidia to navigate with the White House also eliminating the “AI Diffusion Rule.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/14/ai-chip-export-rules-nvidia.html
***
The Chinese will interpret this as a lack of good faith…and will respond accordingly.
Half way through May now and it’s currently shaping up to be a horrendous month for both OEMs in terms of line deliveries. On Planespotters this morning (CET):
A320/A321neo: 5
A350: 0
A330neo: 1
B737MAX: 7
787: 2
777: 2
There might be a rush in the second half of the month, but this looks awful so far.
Any theories as to cause?
Is there a new hold-up in cabin fittings? A fastener shortage? Trade-war-related hold-ups?…
You can get a little reprieve;
Emirates took delivery of a “NEW” A350, if you want to call it that..
A 6 month old airframe, completed in November 24′..
Far from fresh off the line..
Strange,I thought only 787’s suffered that dilemma, as you stated yesterday.
So I guess we really can’t count
that as a new built airframe,or towards meeting their monthly production figures.
Hmmmmm!!! 🤔
So triffle some can be.
But that’s the way some want to play here, so I had to post..
Thanks for the update, Greg!
“Strange,I thought only 787’s suffered that dilemma, as you stated yesterday.”
–> I didn’t state that at all…go back and read again 🙈
I even previously pointed out to you (in your D Andrews guise) that AB had a whole bunch of A350s out on the apron waiting for cabin fit…remember that? 😉
But, importantly: the delivered Emirates frame (LN713) is only 0.1 years old — that’s 5-6 times younger than those 787s that you tried to pass off yesterday as “new built” 🥳
[Edited for multiple violations of Reader Comment Rules.]
https://aviation.flights/aib/A350/713/flights/2024-02
[Edited for multiple violations of Reader Comment Rules.]
OV-1: Official warning: your personalized attacks and name calling is a violation of our Reader Comment rules. Do it again and you’re suspended for 30 days.
Hamilton
It might be good for competition that Boeing gets these Qatar orders. While it is Qatar buying the best aircraft or Trump trying to save Boeing is not entirely clear to me. What did Trump give?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/05/13/politics/trump-middle-east-business-invs
Of course 787-9 & -10 are good aircraft but 777-9 is still overweight, 7 years delayed & uncertified to me.
No neef to worry about AB, they seem ok (sold out for a decade, up to date portfolio, feasible options)
The ME countries being visited by Trump are all currently involved in large resort construction investments by Trump Corp.
Son Eric did the groundwork before daddy’s visit.
Go figure 😉
It might be good for competition that Boeing gets these Qatar orders. While it is Qatar buying the best aircraft or Trump trying to save Boeing is not entirely clear to me. What did Trump give?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/05/13/politics/trump-middle-east-business-invs
Imagine Any Other POTUS mixing privat interest & government business this extreme.. Media & Congress would explode. (should IMO..)
Of course 787-9 & -10 are good aircraft but 777-9 is still overweight, 7 years delayed & uncertified to me.
No need to worry about AB, they seem ok (sold out for a decade, up to date portfolio, feasible options)
The Qatar deal was in negotiation well before Trump went to Qatar. Remember, Airways was already a big customer for the 777X and 787. With all the delays, this deal is as much about customer compensation as anything else.
Mr. Hamilton, have you any idea what (nominal) delivery dates have been pencilled in for this order?
The BA press release is silent on this point.
Also, any idea which 787 sub-types were ordered?
https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2025/Boeing-and-Qatar-Airways-Announce-Historic-Order-for-up-to-210-Widebody-Airplanes/default.aspx
Of note as regards the 787 portion: “Ten orders were previously booked as unidentified.”
So, it’s 120 + 30 = 150.
@Abalone: Neither the White House nor Boeing identified a range of delivery dates, and Boeing declined to provide an answer when I queried it. I have seen a press item that says the deliveries extend into the next decade (no duh there). As far as I know, the production slots for the 787 and 777X are filled anyway through the end of this decade. It’s entirely possible Boeing had some slots here and there for both airplanes, but I don’t expect substantial delivery positions open till 2030 or later for either aircraft.
787 for round numbers 2,200 orders now and deliveries close to 1,200 deliveries (wiki)
so 1,000 backlog as of today, let’s be generous and say Boeing averages 10 a month production rate…120 a year.. over 8 year backlog
let’s us not be so generous on production…so say 8 a month…to round numbers 100 a year…that ‘s 10 years of backlog…
by 2035, the 787 program will be over 30 years old
Boeing will hit rate 10 in a couple of years depending on the supplier issue.
With that kind of backlog you can see why they would, this time its not pie in the sky trying to maximize money in the short term just to throttle back.
The 777X program keeps building numbers that you expect a 747 capacity type aircraft would. F numbers as well (if they can get it to certification)
MAX has a major backlog and people fighting for aircraft.
I continue to hope that Ortberg sets a standard long enough that the gut the company goes away and it becomes normal company governance like RTX had. Never perfect but not debacles of destruction.
“What did Trump give?”
Lots and lots of chips. Whether it will ultimately benefit them is another question.
Is BA going to buy back aircraft from Qatar as part of the deal?
Can the order cover demand of airlines that Qatar currently invests in?
Listen up!
A one trillion opportunity! [That’s how the HW counts :p]
> Trump: F-35, we’re doing an upgrade, a simple upgrade, but we’re also doing an F-55. I’m going to call it an F-55, and that’s going to be a substantial upgrade, but it’s going to be also with two engines because the F 35 has a single engine. I don’t like single engines.
“”We’re going to do an F-55 and – I think, if we get the right price, we have to get the right price – that’ll be two engines and a super upgrade on the F-35, and then we’re going to do the F-22,” Trump said.
“”I think the most beautiful fighter jet in the world is the F-22 but we’re going to do an F-22 Super and it’ll be a very modern version of the F-22 fighter jet,” he said.
“”We’re going to be going with it pretty quickly,” he added.”
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10488479
Two engined F35.. Smaller profile and redundancy anyway..
https://www.rfa.org/resizer/v2/UJLXX4V5QFENHMN3KPZ2DFPZZE.jpg?auth=e07e45ca481c9bfbb2adc8e31bc47f1d0b38042d122ea7f68cf119f1f7886cb4&width=800&height=640
Unfortunately for everyone our Dear Leader is full of it. Full of himself as well. Not to mention in even more mental decline. Maybe some missed the memo but there is not any intelligence there.
Lockheed is working on a F-35+. They lost the F-47 program and like Boeing with the F-15EX, what can we do to compete? Its one major reason to subsidize defense ops to keep the winner on its toes.
It will not be twin engine obviously. He can’t tell the difference between a brick and a Bentley. F-47 will be a twin.
And congress has to agree to sell stuff like that, he won’t have the votes after the next mid term elections. He could loose both bodies.
So lets talk realities not tooth fairy stuff like Trump does.
> “I think he’s confused. Very confused,” one former Air Force official said. “I can’t even imagine what it is like to try and brief him.”
Trump appeared to indicate that the “F-55” would be a two-engine version of the F-35, but such a modification would require a comprehensive redesign of the airframe, essentially resulting in a new airplane.
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/05/trumps-f-55-fighter-jet-real/405353/
To be honest two engines is something offering great benefits in many areas, one extra to bring you home, e.g. after a bird strike.
I’ve talked to fighter pilots with combat experience steering their carreers towards double engined platforms. Flying above ISIS territory..
DT is chaotic, but I can imagine he just asked DoD to see what would be required to stretch / re-fuselage an F35 into twin engines..
Has it been done before? Yes, the other way around, F5 => F20. Worked well.
☠
History rhythms. So it seems America now can’t afford the “F-16” and pick a “revised F-5” because that’s what they can afford?
This has some perspective and particularly the last paragraphs.
https://www.twz.com/air/trump-wants-a-twin-engine-f-55-version-of-the-f-35-joint-strike-fighter
TWZ does not just say it but this would be an all new airframe (twin engines) and F-35 like systems.
I think Pedro noted how dated an engine was (PW4000?).
But then all those things that were not right you fix and……………………
Basically its nuts, its not an F-35. F-22 is even more of a pipe dream though you could gut the airframe like the F-15EX and put in the F-35 systems.
A new program is the reality if any of it even gets that far. The next admin could just cancel the F-47.
“China keeps hold on rare earth metals after lifting some U.S. export curbs”
“China has temporarily paused export restrictions targeting 28 American companies on the heels of the trade truce Beijing reached with the Trump administration over the weekend in Switzerland.
“But China is continuing to block exports from that country of seven rare earth metals to the United States, whose defense, energy and automotive industries rely on those metals.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/china-trump-trade-deal-export-controls.html
***
Probably has something to do with the fact that Trump — just yesterday — announced new semiconductor restrictions on China.
So, the air is far from cleared in this trade war.
Also:
“Trump to Keep 30% China Tariffs Till Late 2025, Analysts Say”
“While much lower than before the thaw this week, the current rate is high enough to wipe out 70% of Chinese shipments to the world’s largest economy in the medium term, Bloomberg Economics has projected.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-china-tariffs-seen-staying-000204159.html
> CNBC: Walmart warns of higher prices as Trump tariffs start to bite
> We’ve not seen a period where you’ve had prices go up this high, this quickly. We’re well equipped and experienced in dealing with price increases that are going up 3%, but not 30%.” – Walmart CFO
Interest rate about to break into 18-year new high! Housing market not doing well! At what costs!!
Sorry, it’s not the CNBC, it’s from Reuters.
Fed chief Jerome Powell warns that U.S. could face “supply shocks”
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is cautioning that the U.S. could face an increase in supply shocks. The comes a week after the central bank announced it would hold interest rates steady amid a period of economic uncertainty.”
“Consumer sentiment slides to second-lowest on record as inflation expectations jump after tariffs”
“The outlook for price changes also moved in the wrong direction. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 7.3% from 6.5% last month, while long-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/16/consumer-sentiment-may-inflation-expectations-tariffs.html
Colombia has become the latest Latin American country to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
One by one, they ditch the leaky ship about to sink?
“For example, Chinese companies are not only building Bogota’s metro but also investing in local manufacturing, such as medical equipment and telecommunications.”
“China’s role as a financier, builder and market provider presents a compelling case for deeper integration.”
“Doom” porn warning
> NEWS: The FAA is investigating Monday’s air traffic control radio outage at Denver Center. The FAA says “both transmitters that cover a segment of airspace” went down for about 90 seconds, but controllers used a backup frequency and no aircraft lost separation.
https://x.com/petemuntean/status/1923105470018953459
“Consumer sentiment fell to its second-lowest reading on record in May, inching down for the fifth straight month as the potential impacts of tariffs loom large in the American psyche.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to a reading of 50.8 in the first two weeks of May, according to preliminary results released Friday.
That’s the index’s second-lowest reading since 1978. The all-time low was a reading of 50 recorded in June 2022, when inflation hit a 9.1% annual rate, the largest yearly increase since the 1980s.”
“Moody’s downgrades United States credit rating on increase in government debt”
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/moodys-downgrades-us-sovereign-credit-rating-amid-fiscal-pressures-4051391
***
Things are unraveling…
The market doesn’t like what it heard. > Stocks getting dumped after hours.
> federal budget deficit is running near $2 trillion a year, or more than 6% of gross domestic product. A weaker US economy in the wake of a global tariff war is set to increase the deficit as government spending typically rises when activity slows. […]
Over the long term, higher federal spending on Social Security and Medicare — a result of the aging population — are expected to add to federal debt over the coming decades, along with higher interest rates that have pushed up debt servicing costs. […]
The rating company expects “federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation.”
Coming home to roost.
The rating agencies were one vector (mis)used as a lever to pressure other nations. Now it hits the US. Good Thing (TM).
What will your grocery bill look like?
> Walmart bananas will rise from 50 cents a pound to 54 cents.
A 8% tax increase on the American consumer. 2% of the 10% tariff will be absorbed by the importer/Walmart. *Exporter does not pay the tariffs*.
“U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Walmart should “eat the tariffs” instead of blaming duties imposed by his administration on imported goods for the retailer’s increased prices.”
That’s an interesting — and hilarious — lapse.
Hasn’t he consistently maintained that tariffs would be paid by the foreign exporter rather than the domestic importer? So, in that case, Walmart shouldn’t have to “eat” anything…right?
🙈
Play the tariffs game, get the tariffs prize.
> Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers
“sentiment lowest since 1980; 1-year inflation expectations highest 1981”.
👉”Tariffs spontaneously mentioned by nearly 3/4 of consumers,”
👉” uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate,”
https://x.com/BaldwinRE/status/1923604199108980817
Pretty bizzare that they stopped what was a good practice.
https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/lone-a321-pilot-incapacitated-for-10min-after-seizure-during-captains-absence/163015.article
It never and won’t happen in other aircraft like a Boeing? 🤦♂️
You miss the point, always jumping to taking offense. Its not an Airbus or Boeing issue, its a human factors problem.
It could have been a Boeing and in fact was with the 787-800 China crash.
US has held to having a 2nd person in the cockpit at all times. You can’t prove a negative but having a human presence may prevent another crash induced by pilot.
And in this case with a locked cockpit that is standard across Boeing and Airbus, access as needed.
Mental Heath is a badly served area let alone for pilots. This is a case of a physical onset that was bad.
2nd person in the cockpit at all times should be standard for all airlines.
I don’t know, man, have those VIPs stopped flying in helicopters around DCA??
Which is more dangerous (higher frequency of incidents)? Be honest!
Time for pilotless planes (or pilotless flights while the pilot is incapacitated). See below.
“President Trump Just Cut the Budget on Boeing’s and Lockheed’s Most Important Space Program”
“The White House released its budget proposal for fiscal year 2026, and one of the biggest surprises therein was a 24% cut in NASA funding, which would fall from $24.8 billion this year to $18.8 billion, next year, potentially impacting the revenue streams of many of America’s biggest space companies.”
“…The biggest change contained in the space budget, however, is a plan to axe the Space Launch System (SLS). The SLS was designed by NASA for launching astronauts to the moon and back, along with the Orion space capsule that would carry them, and also the Lunar Gateway space station, where they would dock before descending to the moon. A White House statement described the SLS, upon which all the rest depends, as “grossly expensive and delayed,” costing taxpayers “$4 billion per launch and … 140 percent over budget.”
“The budget proposal calls for ending SLS launches after just two more launches, in 2026 and 2027. From that point onward, NASA would use “more cost-effective commercial systems that would support more ambitious subsequent lunar missions.” Which sounds like code for SpaceX and Blue Origin rockets.”
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/17/trump-cut-budget-on-boeing-and-lockheed-space-prog/
“U.S. Department of Justice may drop all criminal charges against Boeing in 737 MAX crashes, sparking outrage from victims’ families”
“On May 16, 2025, families of the 346 victims killed in the Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes were informed by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) that it may drop all criminal charges against Boeing and instead offer a non-prosecution agreement (NPA). Boeing is reportedly backing out of its earlier agreement to plead guilty to defrauding the FAA.
“The news provoked strong backlash from victims’ families and their lawyers, who accused the DOJ of prioritising Boeing’s interests over justice. They criticised the potential NPA, which includes a proposed $444.5 million victims’ fund, as a “slap on the wrist” and morally indefensible, particularly given Boeing’s prior admission of guilt.
“Attorneys Paul Cassell and Robert Clifford condemned the DOJ’s fear of losing in court, emphasising that families prefer a trial, even if unsuccessful, over what they view as a betrayal of public interest. Several relatives expressed feeling re-victimised by the DOJ’s handling of the case and vowed to fight the proposal before the judge overseeing the case in Texas.
“A final decision from the DOJ is pending, and families have requested time to submit formal objections.”
https://www.aviation24.be/manufacturers/boeing/737/max/u-s-department-of-justice-may-drop-all-criminal-charges-against-boeing-in-737-max-crashes-sparking-outrage-from-victims-families/
TBTF
As long as the crashes weren’t in the US, BA is practically immune.
Trade war thaw? Really?
“China slaps anti-dumping duties on plastics from US, EU, Japan, Taiwan”
“China on Sunday announced anti-dumping duties as high as 74.9% on imports of POM copolymers, a type of engineering plastic, from the United States, the European Union, Japan and Taiwan.”
“In January the ministry said initial investigations had determined that dumping was taking place, and implemented preliminary anti-dumping measures in the form of a deposit starting from January 24.
According to Sunday’s announcement, the highest anti-dumping rates of 74.9% were levied on imports from the United States, while European shipments will face 34.5% duties.
China slapped 35.5% duties on Japanese imports, except for Asahi Kasei Corp, which received a company-specific rate of 24.5%.
“General duties of 32.6% were placed on imports from Taiwan, while Formosa Plastics received a 4% tariff and Polyplastics Taiwan 3.8%.”
“The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group of nations warned of “fundamental challenges” facing the global trading system in a communique on Friday after a meeting in South Korea.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/18/china-slaps-anti-dumping-duties-on-plastics-from-us-eu-japan-taiwan.html
“U.S.-Canada Trade Strains Alter Trans Mountain Oil Flows”
(Spoiler alert: the oil is now being sold to China).
“Crude flows from the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline have materially shifted since the relations between the United States and Canada soured under U.S. President Donald Trump.
“China has now become the biggest buyer of Canadian crude shipped via the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline to Canada’s West Coast, according to data from Kpler cited by Reuters. ”
“However, President Trump’s trade blitz and threats to Canada’s sovereignty prompted Canada to diversify its crude oil exports and seek to reduce its over-reliance on the U.S. export market, which accounts for more than 90% of Canadian crude exports.
“So, the crude shipped on the expanded the Trans Mountain pipeline to Canada’s Pacific coast is now finding buyers in China, which wants to diversify its crude oil sources and hedge against continued U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and oil trade network, including China-based independent refiners that have bought Iranian oil.
“China has also stopped importing U.S. crude oil in the trade war and is unlikely to resume purchases of American oil during the 90-day tariff truce announced early this week.
“As a result of the shifting geopolitical realities, China is buying more crude shipped on TMX than the United States. Since the pipeline launched full-capacity operations last June, Canada has exported on average 207,000 bpd of TMX crude to China, compared to 173,000 bpd shipped to the U.S. in the same period, according to Kpler’s data.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Canada-Trade-Strains-Alter-Trans-Mountain-Oil-Flows.html
***
Well done Canada!
De-risking in the same way as the EU — i.e. by diversifying trade to new partners rather than trying to put the thumbscrews on old ones.
I bet Canada is also getting a better oil price ftom the Chinese — after all, it was giving a 20% discount to the US.
On a related note: Trump’s trade chaos has reduced oil prices to levels that are unviable for US drillers:
“US Oil Drillers Continue To Back Off As Prices Languish Below Breakevens”
“WTI is trading up on the day, but still below what the Dallas Fed Survey says is the breakeven for Permian players, with drilling activity in the basin falling by 3 this week to 282—a figure that is 30 fewer than this same time last year. The count in the Eagle Ford stayed the same again this week, at 46. Rigs in the Eagle Ford are 5 below where they were this time last year.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Drillers-Continue-To-Back-Off-As-Prices-Languish-Below-Breakevens.html
China tariff ‘stacking’ pushes true cost of import taxes well above 30% on many consumer products
‘The Trump administration trade deal with China which paused the steepest tariffs on Chinese goods is not offering much relief to importers that face “stacking” of multiple import taxes sending the true cost well above 30%.
From apparel to footwear, swimsuits to backpacks, tariff bills range from 40%-70%.
“Multiple layers of tariffs are a big problem for basic items like kids backpacks that come largely from China,” said Dan Anthony, president at Trade Partnership Worldwide. “You’re talking about rates of over 70%,” he said.
That includes the layering of existing 17.6% tariffs and Section 301 tariffs (related to unfair trade practices) of 25%, with the 30% in tariffs on Chinese goods not included in the pause — 20% fentanyl-related tariffs and 10% reciprocal tariffs.”
Would it be cheaper to shop across the border? Wink wink.
Colombia seeks to join China-based development bank as Latin America drifts away from Washington
> Colombia has applied to join a China-based development bank, another sign of Latin America’s drift from the U.S. as Trump’s foreign aid cuts, trade barriers and migration crackdown spurs regional leaders to seek closer ties with DC’s geopolitical rival.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro wrapped up a visit to China this week with a stop in Shanghai, where he met with former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the head of the New Development Bank.
> Petro, speaking to reporters in China on Saturday, said that Colombia is committed to purchasing $512 million worth of shares in the bank. He said that he was especially excited by the possibility of securing the New Development Bank’s support for a 120-kilometer (75-mile) canal, or railway, connecting Colombia’s Atlantic and Pacific Ocean coastlines that he said would position the country at the “heart” of trade between South America and Asia.
https://t.co/jF4I4sx4hp
CNBC: In Feb and March, a combined half a trillion dollars was pulled by foreigners out of US securities:
“Overall, net foreign acquisitions of long- and short-term securities, including banking flows, showed a net outflow of $254.3 billion in March, up slightly from $248.9 billion posted in February.”
The figure for April will be spectacularly worse, since that will contain the largest tariff unrest (so far).
As of this morning (CET), the yields on 30- and 10-year US treasuries have climbed above 5% and 4.5%, respectively.
As a benchmark, the yields on German and Japanese 10-year bonds are 2.63% and 1.49%, respectively.
“The rise in real interest rates has a direct impact on mortgage rates, which are influenced by long-term Treasury yields,” says Realtor.com® senior economist Jake Krimmel. “As yields climb, mortgage rates follow suit. And higher real interest rates, in general, mean mortgage rates will stay higher, too.”
“The downgrade of debt put upward pressure on bond prices on Monday morning. That pushed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage up 12 basis points to 7.04%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
CNBC: Ray Dalio says the risk to U.S. Treasurys is even greater than what Moody’s is saying
CNBC: Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent on tariffs, expects S&P 500 earnings growth to collapse
CNBC: 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% briefly after Moody’s downgrades U.S. credit rating
CNBC: Pilotless planes are taking flight in China. Bank of America says it’s time to buy
> While startups around the world have tried to build vehicles that can fly without a pilot, only one is certified to carry people — in China.
“EHang’s EH216-S Pilotless eVTOL Completes Debut Flight in Downtown Shanghai，World-Class Central City is Set to Embrace Air Taxi Transportation”
https://www.ehang.com/news/1180.html
***
“EHang secures China’s first Air Operator Certificates for pilotless electric air taxis”
https://zagdaily.com/zag-air/ehang-secures-chinas-first-air-operator-certificates-for-pilotless-electric-air-taxis/
Well we know where some of Viet Jets MAX order is going
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/vietjet-transfer-50-boeing-737-thailand-subsidiary
Since VietJet placed its “massive” order with Boeing in 2016, it hasn’t received a single 737 MAX.
The rescheduled delivery is supposed to start in 2024, so another year’s delay?
Sep 2022 report: “In a recent performance update, VietJet Air said it expects to receive its first batch of MAX planes between 2024 and 2028. The air carrier confirmed that the first 50 jets will join the fleet of its subsidiary, Thai VietJet.”
“Under the reaffirmed contract with VietJet, which was announced during the Farnborough International Airshow in July 2022.. ”
March 2023 report: Thai VietJetAir to be an all Boeing airline by 2024 😂
“(The) new agreement provides *more* flexibility for aircraft deliveries and *commercial incentives* for parties in taking new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft,” the airline’s briefing notes said…
The CEO also confirmed that the existing fleet of [Airbus aircraft] will be phased out by 2024. *In mid-2023, Thai VietJet will receive its first B737-8*, the first of 50 it will receive between then and 2027…
The FAA has proposed mandating Boeing-recommended inspections of about 100 787-9s and -10s for fuselage fittings that may be constructed from the wrong grade of titanium.
Retired four-star Navy Adm. Robert P. Burke guilty of bribery
The Navy’s former second-highest-ranking officer was convicted of bribery and other counts Monday, becoming the senior-most member of the U.S. military ever convicted of committing a federal crime while on active duty.
What does Burke have to do with Airbus results?
Stay on topic.
Hamilton
“bribery”
active or passive?
private or commercial?