Airbus, Boeing virtually tied in YTD orders

Airbus and Boeing are virtually tied in year-to-date net orders, a position that is likely to change with next week’s Farnborough Air Show when both manufacturers may announce stronger-than-expected orders.

Through June 30, Airbus reported 487 net orders to Boeing’s 475.

In the ever-close single aisle category, Boeing now has taken the lead, with 354 net 737 sales to Airbus’ 323 net sales for the A320 family, a ratio of 52.3% to 47.7%. The companies have often flip-flopped the lead on this category.

For twin aisles, the leadership depends on the category within the category and also upon how these are divvied up.

For the large twin-aisle, Boeing continues to remain slightly ahead with 40 777s sold in the first half vs. 32 A350-900s. Airbus hasn’t sold a single A350-1000 so far this year. The ratio is 55.5% for Boeing to 45.5% for Airbus.

On medium-twin aisle airplanes, the picture is muddied a bit because there are the current generation twins (A330 and 767) plus the next generation twins (787 and A350-800). Here’s how this lines up:

A330P, 94: 47%

767, none: 0%

787, 79: 39.5%

A350-800, 27: 13.5%

Total-All, 200

This gives Airbus a 60.5% market share vs. 39.5% for Boeing. However, if one looks at only the 787 vs. the A350-800, Boeing has a 74.5% share vs. 25.5% for Airbus.

Boeing is handicapped by the fact that the 787 has serious program delays and as a result won’t deliver the last of the current orders of 900 until 2017 or 2020, depending on who you talk to. Thus, we’re told Boeing is currently not really offering the 787 for sale until the production rate stream becomes clear–a process that may take a couple of years. Airbus is limited in the ability to take advantage of this for the A350, which is also sold out to about 2017. There are more opportunities for the A330. Several lessors that ordered the A330F may switch early positions to the A330P and tack on an equal number of A330Fs to the back end of their orders. Some of these may be announced at Farnborough.

As for the 767, Boeing has yet to decide whether to up the production rate from the current one per month to 2 or 2 1/2 for airliners; and whether the oft-delayed USAF decision on the aerial tanker might be reversed, providing the need for even higher 767 rates.

Boeing did not sell any 767 freighters, while Airbus sold 11 A330Fs.

There was no change in the Very Large Aircraft category from May: Boeing has sold two 747-8s to three A380s YTD.

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