Airbus’ COO-Customers, John Leahy, predicts 480 deliveries in 2010, about the same number as this year, according to this Aviation Week article by Robert Wall.
This is a bit surprising. Boeing has strongly indicated it probably will reduce production next year by about 10%, which would mean roughly 450 deliveries. But this includes assumed 787 deliveries beginning in 1Q10 at a rate of perhaps three a month and therefore a 15% or so reduction in legacy programs.
Furthermore, we’ve been told that at least some Airbus suppliers are planning sharp reductions in the A320 family.
Steve Udvar-Hazy, the CEO of International Lease Finance Corp., told the ISTAT AGM last month on a panel we chaired that it was his view Airbus and Boeing had to maintain production rates for the cash flow to offset delays in the A380, 747-8 and 787 programs. (He didn’t mention the A400M, but this one is a real mess, too.)
Aviation Week’s Wall reports that Leahy said it will be real tough on requests for deferrals this year, but will be a bit more flexible next year.