Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
Odds and Ends: MH370 Update: Australians think hypoxia most likely, others still point to pilot misdeeds; and more
MH370: Australian investigators, having reevaluated evidence of missing Malaysian Airlines MH370, conclude that crew hypoxia may be the most likely reason the flight disappeared. But even within the Australian government, this is not a unanimous conclusion, and it’s certainly not within the international community. The captain of the flight is the chief suspect, according to other reports.
Boeing cost cuts: Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Aircraft, explained Boeing’s cost-cutting approach in Washington State and with suppliers and plead for understanding, reports the Seattle Times. Conner also termed the potential loss of ExIm Bank funding as a “huge blow,” should Republicans in Congress succeed in killing the program. Closing ExIm would give Airbus a major advantage, he said.
Airbus funding: Airbus and a company in the Middle East have created an Islamic funding structure to help finance Airbus aircraft in the region. With the Middle Eastern carriers becoming more and more important in global aviation, expanding this area as a funding source naturally follows. Islamic financing is not new, but it’s been a narrowly-based source of funding.
I doubt the flight deck crew of MH-370 suffered hypoxia. Pilots are trained to recognize the symptoms of hypoxia and to go on 100% oxygen at the onset. In the “unlikely” event of a rapid decompression of the cabin, they will put on the quick-don O2 masks and set the regulator to pressure breath, if necessary.
Sorry, I’m just not buying the hypoxia theory. The unusual maneuvers and altitude changes at about the hand-off point between Malaysia ATC and Vietnam ATC, and across Malaysia west bound, still indicate the aircraft was under the control of the pilot(s).
I actually could buy a hypoxia event, extremely unlikely but a series of events might lead to it. However, it would not follow the course this one did.
Add in all the other items per above and absolutely not (add in the transponder going silent along with ACARS to the list of what then becomes overt actions) and it passes the modern duck test. Flys, swims, looks, quacks and DNA test all say it was a pilot hi-jack.
Not necessarily a pilot hijack, but at least someone that knew how to operate the plane – I don’t like implying blame for something like this with the MH370 pilots without a lot more evidence (recent increases in life insurance, gambling debts and such)
Interesting that Airbus themselves are providing some of the seed capital for their Islamic fund. One advantage of being careful to be able to afford your dividends and a move which will also encourage US politicians, or might even have been calculated to encourage politicians to, not re-authorise ExIm.
To Quote: Interesting that Airbus themselves are providing some of the seed capital for their Islamic fund.
Interesting indeed, but for a host of reasons that most of the politically aware will identify, any such similar initiative from Boeing or the US government would be regarded by the Far East & a myriad of the worlds markets as being totally unacceptable.
Be they product or politically related, these attitudes/decisions have significantly hindered Boeings growth over many years. Worryingly they have influenced Boeings consistent decline in market share within a developing market, Deeply concerning is the consistent erosion of it’s long loyal customer base & Boeings increasing dependence on it’s domestic market & US political alliances..
Most promiment reason is strong dislike of premedidated/deliberate forward looking investments.
( gazilions sunk into the dreamliner don’t count as they were blowback and not premeditated 😉
US commerce appears to be a scavenger low productivity culture.
“A clinical psychologist advising the investigation has been very skeptical of the suicide theory, saying it would be highly unusual for a suicidal person to proceed with such a deadly plan over many hours, investigators said.”
My problem with the suicide theory, fires and hypoxia etc have all happened before, a suicide of this type, never.
Really. How long did the Egypt air pilot plan his work? We don’t know.
How long did the Silkair pilot?
How long the (Tanzanian crash?) Pilot?
We do have a number of killings of multiple people in the US that were planned many months in advance in which the shooter or shooters then committed suicide. That is the model here not a singular suicide.
It is not the most common form obviously (lone suicide would be) but in this case truly mass murder (or the attempt) with a suicide aspect does occur.
I have to heartily disagree with your clinical psychologist as the evidence says definitely otherwise.
The problem to me is the self preservation reflex. One thing to plan suicide, another one to ignore the oxygen mast in front of you while you start to die. Suicides jump or do things that are over in a few moments and have no pulling back, never heard of one who wanted to spend several minutes suffering while the solution to his pain was in front of him.
Well, the most planned that I remember reading was in 1965. Not aircraft related :
WATER FIRES RIFLE Suicide Employs Elaborate Setup VENICE (CNS)–Police Sunday Investigated a bizarn suicide committed by a San Francisco man in a mote about three days ago. Officers said the victim, who was discovered Sunday has been identified as Russell Aubray, believed to be ir his late 20s. Police said Aubray was discovered lying on a bed tha had been pushed in front of the door of a room at thf Western Motel, 2435 Lincoln Blvd. He was dead from a bullet in the head from a .22 caliber rifle, the barrel of which was inserted into a hoi drilled through a football helmet he was wearing. The rifle, clamped to a chair next to the bed, was se off by water dripping into a suspended bucket in th bathroom shower. The bucket was attached to the trigge by a clothesline running through a series of pulleys. The water apparently had dripped very slowly int the bucket, officers said, until there was sufficient weigh to discharge the cocked weapon. · After rigging the elaborate system of self destruction Aubray put on the helmet with the rifle attached and ap parently went to sleep, officers said. ”
http://www.newspapers.com/newspage/17934407/
If you really want to go, there is a way.
Yep
To clarify, The yep was to kc135topboom, not Martin A
One reason I don’t believe the hypoxia theory is the climb to FL-450, then descend back down. and the irradiate flight path back across Malaysia. It sure looks like an attempt to avoid flying through Thailand and Indonesian airspace. If the crew became hypoxic, the autopilot would have continued on the programmed flight path to China, and the ACARS would not have been disabled..
But going to FL-450 wouldn’t affect the aircraft, it was tested to FL-430 anyway and 450 is almost certainly inside the engineering safety factor.
I agree. But the question is why did the B-777 climb to 45,000′? Why did it change course so radically? The only answer is someone was flying the airplane, the autopilot did not do this on its own.
Wasn’t the ascend to 45kft mooted some time ago? i.e. didn’t happen?
No… the airplane did reach FL-450 after it turned of course to the southeast, going back over Malaysia.
I think something upset or distracted him, and my personal guess is it wasn’t his state of mind, but something which happened. I sure hope they find the wreck sometime, and it tells us something.
Conner: Notice how he is all Boeing Chicago like since he was raised to the elite level?
He used to act like both sides had an interest. Soul bought and paid for, the things a tittle will do
I guess you need to enlighten me TW. I don’t see Boeing Chicago in Ray’s speech.
He is pointing out the realities of life in the commercial aircraft world. I would be interested in what you consider Chicago talk.
At one time business actually built their own factories without cooperate welfare (bribes) and for hundreds of years were highly successful.
Now they claim they can’t make money unless they are given billions upon billions. In this case Boeings problem is a lack of competence, not the so called competitive landscape (one other company to compete with and supposedly it has higher overhead and is doing quite nicely thank you). When its an individual on welfare they are scum, when it’s a corporation its “competitive environment “. It was not the workers who screwed up the 787 production (actually it was those loathsome union workers that made it work and still are)
So now they screw down on the suppliers as well as the state.
So, one mans supposed reality is this mans raspberry.
Alaska recently saw the CEOs of all the major oil companies testify that the tax breaks had nothing to do with their business decisions.
they now say that we will have to stop doing business in a safe, stable climate and go to Russia unless you give us those same tax breaks we said were not a consideration
Call it the big lie. Boeing Chicago specializes in those lies. Ray Connor looked to have a foot in the real world where its a partnerships with the workers, suppliers the state and Boeing. I would call it sold out completely. Money and titles talk.
You can believe it if you want, I do not and there is a preponderance of evidence that says I am right.
While I agree with you about corporate welfare, it’s a fact of life practiced by ALL companies and until a federal law is passed to stop it, the welfare will continue. Also I didn’t see Ray talking about that.
As for “screwing down the suppliers” that is also done by ALL companies and is not new to Boeing. Working years ago for a supplier to Boeing, we lost a contract for not reducing our price as much as they wanted. I believe the Commercial pres. was a guy named Woodward.
I still don’t see Ray talking Chicago but rather telling what is happening in the aircraft industry and business in general in this day and age. I would think you would be glad to hear his commitment to the Seattle area for the long term. Also the fact that they have moved some jobs to other Boeing facilities but still added 10,000 job in the Seattle area in the last few years.
I suggest the hypoxia theory was discussed by the AU search authorities simply to try to narrow down the initial new search area. The report tires hard to narrow it down, based on skimpy data (even the sitcom data depends on estimates of speed and such).
Sorry, the “sitcom” is in the media and blogs, I of course meant SATCOM which is extensively discussed in the report.
Note they have data on two short SATCOM transmissions initiated by airplane equipment, one before the hourly attempts by the satellite, one soon after the last hourly attempt.