Quotations are paraphrased.
Feb. 11, 2015: I don’t see a 60% market share for our competition (Airbus, single-aisle airplanes), says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, in his presentation today before the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA).
Tinseth instead points to the 50/50 deliveries of the A320 v the 737 in 2014.
He was referring to Richard Aboulafia’s prediction that Airbus will have a 60% single-aisle market share through 2024.
- Oil prices will be below $85 in the near–future, Boeing predicts. Last year airlines consumed 80bn gallons of fuel Flat fuel prices will be a good tailwind for the airlines.
- Cargo market coming back. Every 1% growth in cargo means 10 777Fs/747Fs.
- Commercial aviation has been an extremely resilient market, seeing its way through wars, health crises, other issues.
- Sees demand for 840 freighter aircraft, 2 1/2 to 3 a month for 777F to help transition to 777X.
- What we know for the next seven years is our revenue is set. What we don’t know is costs.
- 4,000 airplanes needed between now and 2023, so current backlog doesn’t preclude more. 27% of customers haven’t made decision.
- We’re well on our way to building bridge from 777 Classic to 777X. Sold 63 last year, this is our goal this year.
- As we see the cargo market coming back, we are confident in the future of the 747-8.
- Competition will be fierce with Airbus in the future.
- What’s needed for 757 market–today there are still about 950 out there, 205 of which are freighters, so about 750 in service. About same number of A321s. 757 provides range capability in the market. About 50-80 operate on long haul. A 737-9, A321 with two tanks, with 757s about the same. If you use airline rules, 757 about 400-500 miles more.
- The 757 replacement market: customers want about 20% more passengers. We’re working on it, it will take some time.
- It is not an option to restart 757 with new engines. (Very firm “No.”) Business case does not close. We are not studying 757 re-engine.