Quotations are paraphrased.
Feb. 11, 2015: I don’t see a 60% market share for our competition (Airbus, single-aisle airplanes), says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, in his presentation today before the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA).
Tinseth instead points to the 50/50 deliveries of the A320 v the 737 in 2014.
He was referring to Richard Aboulafia’s prediction that Airbus will have a 60% single-aisle market share through 2024.
- Oil prices will be below $85 in the near–future, Boeing predicts. Last year airlines consumed 80bn gallons of fuel Flat fuel prices will be a good tailwind for the airlines.
- Cargo market coming back. Every 1% growth in cargo means 10 777Fs/747Fs.
- Commercial aviation has been an extremely resilient market, seeing its way through wars, health crises, other issues.
- Sees demand for 840 freighter aircraft, 2 1/2 to 3 a month for 777F to help transition to 777X.
- What we know for the next seven years is our revenue is set. What we don’t know is costs.
- 4,000 airplanes needed between now and 2023, so current backlog doesn’t preclude more. 27% of customers haven’t made decision.
- We’re well on our way to building bridge from 777 Classic to 777X. Sold 63 last year, this is our goal this year.
- As we see the cargo market coming back, we are confident in the future of the 747-8.
- Competition will be fierce with Airbus in the future.
- What’s needed for 757 market–today there are still about 950 out there, 205 of which are freighters, so about 750 in service. About same number of A321s. 757 provides range capability in the market. About 50-80 operate on long haul. A 737-9, A321 with two tanks, with 757s about the same. If you use airline rules, 757 about 400-500 miles more.
- The 757 replacement market: customers want about 20% more passengers. We’re working on it, it will take some time.
- It is not an option to restart 757 with new engines. (Very firm “No.”) Business case does not close. We are not studying 757 re-engine.
Mr. Tinseth still suggests its all about 757 replacement. Airbus delivered 1000+ A321s already and has 1300 on order, with or without the 757.
Tinseth knew the issue in advance, because I told him 24 aug 2010 & he responded on the record.
“Looking at new designs coming available in a few years in the >200 seat narrowbody segment, I think Boeing will have a hard job marketing the 737-900ER, even in a re-engined version.”
Randy responded 2 days later, aug 26 2010.
Because the best possible 757 replacement already exists – the 737-900ER.
And here we are, the Boeing 737-900ER is Not Up To Par After 2015, even in a re-engined form.
Something goes wrong at Boeing marketing, the airlines just don’t listen.
Obviously, they are not going to restart the 757. But stock up on a few more 767-300 and 767-300F while the line is still open. If they still made a new 85′ or 87′ Subaru, I’d probably buy one of those over a current model.
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it seems what is needed in the mid market, <787 seats <5000nm range is a "clean sheet 767"
I don't mean a 767 proper, but a plane with the same 3 class seating capacity as the 767-200 (although dimensioned in light of modern dense/thin/light seating standards), LD3 compatibility, D gate compatibility (D at gate, E on Runway a-la 777x?) and optimized for full pax/cargo at MTOW for <5000 NM routes.
i.e. a bit more than and a bit less than the old 767-200ER.
My guess would be,
Single aisle market 150-225 seats:
2014 total 1000, Airbus 500, Boeing 500
2019 total 1350, Airbus 650, Boeing 600, Others 100
2024 total 1700, Airbus 700, Boeing 600, Others 400