Do the Boeing 787 sums add up, Part 2

By Bjorn Fehrm Subscription required. Introduction  Oct. 22, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: This is an update on our article about Boeing 787 program costs now that Boeing has presented its 3Q 2015 results. It was a good quarter for Boeing with solid performance in revenue and in cash generation. The results for deferred costs for the 787 program were also above Boeing’s guidance (guidance: same losses as for 2Q), with a $577m increase in deferred costs instead of $790m for 2Q. Boeing’s CFO, Greg Smith, commented that this result and also gave new values for when the 787 goes cash positive and what the learning effects are for the 787-8 and 787-9. We update our analysis based on these further data points. Summary:
  • Boeing reports less deferred costs than expected but Greg Smith put this in perspective in his comments. We decode what this means for the deferral curve for the 787.
  • Smith also gave new information regarding learning effects for 787-8 and 787-9 and when the 787 goes cash positive. We check if this changes any of our assumptions in our original article.

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