Jan. 25, 2021, © Leeham News: JP Morgan thinks Boeing 787 production rates will come down more than the 5/mo planned from May.
Airbus last week announced ramping up A320 rates will be slower than previously hoped.
And Airbus’ widebody rates, while maintained for now, seem squishy.
Airbus last year notified the supply chain to “protect” rate 47/mo for the A320 lines for the second half of this year, with July as the target. Spirit Aerosystems, a supplier, said it December it saw the rate going to 47/mo in October.
Not so fast, Airbus said last week.
The current rate of 40/mo goes to 43 in the third quarter and 45 in the fourth quarter. Rate 47 now won’t happen until 2022.
The A220 rate goes from 4/mo to five at the end of this quarter, as previously announced.
Airbus’ press release used the verb “will” in all cases.
But Airbus was less firm for the A330 and A350 rates.
“Widebody production is expected to remain stable at current levels, with monthly production rates of around five and two for the A350 and A330, respectively,” Airbus said. “This decision postpones a potential rate increase for the A350 to a later stage.”
Maybe we’re reading too much into it, but Airbus use the word “around.”
“Airbus continues to monitor the market closely. With these revised rates, Airbus preserves its ability to meet customer demand while protecting its ability to further adapt as the global market evolves. Airbus expects the commercial aircraft market to return to pre-COVID levels by 2023 to 2025,” the OEM said.
Tomorrow, LNA’s Vincent Valery takes a deep dive into Boeing’s production rate outlook across all 7-Series lines.
Boeing’s 2020 year-end earnings call is Wednesday. Undoubtedly, production rates will be a topic on the call.