March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer announced today that it launched a conversion program for its E190-E1 and E195-E1 jets.
“The full freighter conversion is available for all pre-owned E190 and E195 aircraft, with entry into service expected in early 2024. Embraer sees a market for this size of airplane of approximately 700 aircraft over 20 years,” Embraer said in a statement.
Embraer notes that there are a number of E1 jets aged 10-15 years old that are potential feedstock. The replacement cycle for these continues for the next decade, it said. The company sees a life extension of 10-15 years post-conversion.
Embraer aims to replace turboprop freighters. The E1 Freighters have 50% more volume, three times the range, and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbody freighters. (It avoids mentioning that turboprops have lower operating costs than the E-Jets.)
The P2F will be performed by Embraer in Brazil. A cargo door will be added to the front of the airplane, along with all the usual requirements for conversion. The E190F will have a payload of 23,600 lbs. An E195F will have a payload of 27,100lbs. Embraer
Embraer had been considering offering new-production freighters for the E2 models. This is now off the table. No price for the conversion has been revealed. Entry into service is targeted for 2024.
As of Jan. 15, there were 36 E195-E1s and 159 E190-E1s in storage. There are 422 E190-E1s and 169 E195-E1s in service.
The P2F program is intriguing. A few Bombardier CRJ200s have been converted, but only a handful. Embraer essentially will be a market-maker for this size cargo jet.
On another topic, the spike in oil prices resulting from the Russian war on Ukraine hurts everyone. But for Airbus and Boeing, there could be a boost in demand for the A220, A320neo, and 737 MAX families. It also might mean a boost for the slow-selling Embraer E2 family.
LNA’s Vincent Valery today examined the future single-aisle replacement market behind a paywall. He analyzed the remaining outstanding A320ceo and 737 NG fleet for which no replacement orders have been placed.
The long-term effects of the Ukraine war aren’t factored in. It’s too soon to draw conclusions. Nor is a growth factor considered—just the replacement market.
Valery concluded that there are more than 1,500 older aircraft subject to replacement, with Airbus holding an advantage for potential sales.