Pontifications: Embraer launches E1 Jet P2F program

March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer announced today that it launched a conversion program for its E190-E1 and E195-E1 jets.

By Scott Hamilton

“The full freighter conversion is available for all pre-owned E190 and E195 aircraft, with entry into service expected in early 2024. Embraer sees a market for this size of airplane of approximately 700 aircraft over 20 years,” Embraer said in a statement.

Embraer notes that there are a number of E1 jets aged 10-15 years old that are potential feedstock. The replacement cycle for these continues for the next decade, it said. The company sees a life extension of 10-15 years post-conversion.

Embraer aims to replace turboprop freighters. The E1 Freighters have 50% more volume, three times the range, and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbody freighters. (It avoids mentioning that turboprops have lower operating costs than the E-Jets.)

Conversion in Brazil

The P2F will be performed by Embraer in Brazil. A cargo door will be added to the front of the airplane, along with all the usual requirements for conversion.  The E190F will have a payload of 23,600 lbs. An E195F will have a payload of 27,100lbs. Embraer

Embraer had been considering offering new-production freighters for the E2 models. This is now off the table. No price for the conversion has been revealed. Entry into service is targeted for 2024.

As of Jan. 15, there were 36 E195-E1s and 159 E190-E1s in storage. There are 422 E190-E1s and 169 E195-E1s in service.

The P2F program is intriguing. A few Bombardier CRJ200s have been converted, but only a handful. Embraer essentially will be a market-maker for this size cargo jet.

Spike in oil prices

On another topic, the spike in oil prices resulting from the Russian war on Ukraine hurts everyone. But for Airbus and Boeing, there could be a boost in demand for the A220, A320neo, and 737 MAX families. It also might mean a boost for the slow-selling Embraer E2 family.

LNA’s Vincent Valery today examined the future single-aisle replacement market behind a paywall. He analyzed the remaining outstanding A320ceo and 737 NG fleet for which no replacement orders have been placed.

The long-term effects of the Ukraine war aren’t factored in. It’s too soon to draw conclusions. Nor is a growth factor considered—just the replacement market.

Valery concluded that there are more than 1,500 older aircraft subject to replacement, with Airbus holding an advantage for potential sales.


86 Comments on “Pontifications: Embraer launches E1 Jet P2F program

  1. The spike in oil prices hurts airlines in that it increases their direct operating costs.
    However, higher oil prices also have a strangling effect on economic growth, which can eventually translate into less leisure/business travel, with a knock-on effect on the profitability of airlines (which are already on their knees). This effect is exacerbated by persistent high inflation, which erodes consumer/corporate purchasing power. All that pent-up demand post-CoViD may be smothered before it can sufficiently manifest itself. The ensuing loss of revenue may force airlines to postpone fleet modernization plans.

    • “The spike in oil prices ”

      My guess is that “spike” will widen quite a bit.
      Cui Bono metrics would point to the US as “operator” of this crisis.

  2. This sounds like a great, un-tapped market to get into for Embraer, positioning them just under the 737 & A320/321 P2F freighter programs now offered. Seems like some of the larger freight companies would want to order this size of aircraft, to go into some of the smaller regional airports around the US / World.

  3. A lot of possibles but as no one knows how this plays out, its going to be a month at the soonest before we really know.

    Too many iffs

  4. Turns out that Boeing has sanctioned Russian titanium rather than the other way around

    • So it will be shipped via a 3rd country and rebranded. Thats how these things work normally
      Welcome to the new shipment of Titanium from ‘glorious Kazakstan’ as Borat might say. ( they actually have mines and Ti metal production.)

      • Or bought by China for discounted prices and then stockpiled for future “rainy days”.

        China and India have expressed a willingness to take (discounted) Russian oil that is shunned by “the west”.

        Ah yes, the intriguing world of ineffective sanctions…

      • Duke:

        A heck of a lot harder in this day and age. Sure you can do small quantities but larger ones, no. Its not like TI is a hard one to back track.

      • When the dumping of Chinese steel was banned by the politicians, Sino Steel was shipped to Vietnam, before being transported in to the USA. No bull, just the facts.

          • Yep, Fox news is the hallmark of reporting.

            Its silly to assume that the US can’t track parts and orders.

            You send your parts somewhere else that is under sanction and it shows up. Those are not high volume (fasteners by the billion but the key parts no)

            And then you have no parts for your aircraft.

            And its equally silly to think internal Russia can afford to fly anymore.

          • Surely TW you remember when supplies of aviation parts to sanctioned Iran was run out of the White House with the intermediary being Nicaragua. Iran -Contra it was called.

            I think Boeing says their ‘e-commerce’ operation on aviation parts is a $2 bill per year business and that doesnt include the other traders or airlines who swap amongst themselves. Much more common than you think

            The idea there is some ‘all seeing’ eye that tracks the provenance of every part on every plane doesnt gell. Sure an airline knows whats on *its* planes but they are just serial numbers in a database on their server.

        • The US has relabeled RU gas as Freedom LNG and sold it as “their” product.
          nothing new under the sun.

          • Oil & gas exporters (including those from U.S.) are reaping extra profits, they are capitalists not philanthropists. It’s not Marshall plan II.

    • sorry we can’t deliver : materials issues due to sanctions
      sorry we can’t deliver : we can’t get past the FAA due to major issues.

      What looks better?

  5. US airline stock prices plummeted on Wall Street yesterday — a predictable effect of the soaring oil prices due to “western” sanctions.

    “The share price of the nation’s largest airlines fell by as much as 10% in trading on Wall Street on Monday as surging oil prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is delaying carriers’ recovery from the pandemic.

    “The spike in fuel costs is likely to force airlines to downgrade their first-quarter profit and revenue estimates.

    “The major US domestic carriers are still trying to recover from the losses caused by the spread of the Omicron variant.”


  6. -There is talk of Oil at $300 barrel by US hedge fund managers (who guarantee jet fuel prices), now a Russian Government spokesman is trying to spook the fear as well by saying that if Western Governments Sanction Russian Oil exports we would see $300/barrel prices.
    -These sorts of prices would add $4/100km/passenger ($40/1000km or $65/1000 miles) to a modern neo/max/A350/B787.
    -The Russians have also threatened to cut of gas exports to Germany if Sanctions on their oil is allied. (Told you so)

    -Interestingly $300/barrel is $1.50/Litre is the price that carbon neutral electrokereosene “SAF” jet fuel can likely be made by wind turbine power once the industry is established and also other SAF fuels according to researchers. (Nuclear would be vastly cheaper)
    -Now is the time to look at coal to oil technology combined with sequestration of CO2 into oil fields (disused or to enhance recovery) or sequestration into deep under ground aquifers.
    -SAF is now not just a matter of a climate change issue but one of national security and price stabilisation.

    -Embraer’s E190 P2F will be perfect mail planes and if these is oil price hike they will be the right price to keep priority items flying even if e-commerce parcels decline.

    • According to oil market analysts, each reduction of 1 million barrels per day (BPD) in the worldwide oil supply will add $20 to the barrel price. Seeing as Russia normally exports over 5 million BPD, that adds at least $100 to the barrel price.
      Any “western” ban on Russian oil imports is pointless: all it will achieve is an increased supply of relatively cheap oil to China and India, as well as causing a recession in “the west”.

      There’s a similar worldwide supply-demand imbalance in natural gas: moving away from Russian gas will just mean that someone else will buy it instead.

      With very few exceptions, the world’s energy comes from countries with a questionable reputation / behavior record — so the “told you so” is rather simplistic. The oil crisis in the 70s showed us the power of energy exporters. Also, the geopolitical situation can change relatively quickly: for example, who’d want to be dependent on imports from “a certain western country” when one looks at the erratic track record of its previous president (and — potentially — next president).

      Here’s a link on Australia’s increasing oil import vulnerability:

        • You’re not only pointless & of topic but blatantly outside of commenting rules. Quotes and smiles don’t hide that. You bring the tone down.

      • It’s interesting information you give on oil price to supply sensitivity. So you’re saying the sanctions will be ineffective but you’re also saying they lead to price rises arising from shortages? Sanctions can be tightened and fellow travellers can get their come consequences. A lot of folks are starting to get that “first they came for the Ukrainians but I wasn’t Ukrainian…” moment and where there is outrage things change.

        • The sanctions are ineffective in that there are other buyers lined up to take what “the west” is no longer prepared to take.

          The price goes up because the major commodity markets are in “the west” — so, logically, a shortfall in supply there leads to increased prices. Those prices are not paid by all, however — for example, Venezuela and Iran have been selling discounted oil to China for years. Remember that barter completely circumvents dollar financing, as does trade in Chinese Yuan, for example.

          All that these — and other — sanctions are doing is moving supply lines around. They cause temporary inconvenience to Russia, but considerable pain to “the west”. If stagflation rears its ugly head here, we have a *major* problem.

          Russia does not need foreign currency to finance and supply its armies: it can turn on the Ruble printing press — just as “the west” has effectively been doing with Dollars, Euros and Yen since 2008.

        • -> A lot of folks are starting to get that “first they came for the Ukrainians but I wasn’t Ukrainian…” moment and where there is outrage things change.

          All you talked are off-topic, don’t u know?? China, Taiwan and Ukraine conflict.

          • The Subtopic Mr Hamilton posted is, and I quote: ” ‘Spike in oil prices’ On another topic, the spike in oil prices resulting from the Russian war on Ukraine hurts everyone. But for Airbus and Boeing, there could be a boost in demand” So I am not even of topic given sanctions is an issue.
            There is a difference between straying of topic and personal and general national insults. You give me the consistent impression of a sanctimonious anti Americanism so spiteful that you side with some of the most vile totalitarian regimes on earth you seem little concerned. Just an observation of how you come across “Pedro”

          • @ William
            I don’t see any evidence whatsoever that any commenter here is “siding with some of the most vile totalitarian regimes on earth”.
            Criticising sanctions does not imply that the critic is sympathetic to the sanctioned party.
            There are plenty of economic analysts who share the opinion that sanctions cause more problems than they address. Making emotional rather than rational judgements in the current delicate crisis is a recipe for disaster.
            There are other ways to impede the aggressor besides blindly jumping on the “sanctions du jour” bandwagon.

          • A mere mention doesn’t give a free card for war ranting by poster.

            I am trying to do my bidding of not straying off-topic.

          • @Bryce, the miscreant (not the only on) has a rather boring habit of making critical critical remarks impugning the moral character of the United States but at the same time presenting a haughty disdain for those concerned by China etc. You know like Tibet, Uyghurs, threating to Invade Taiwan, SW Philippine Sea takeover, human rights, organ harvesting.
            -That is a double standard. It’s a trait that is essentially a form of lying because ones reasoning is distorted.
            -I am highly critical of the United States at times but I don’t think its worth getting obsessed to the point one ignores all of the other bad things in the world.

        • “A lot of folks are starting to get that ..”

          Think about it. folks getting in bed with the US
          and doing their bidding may find that they are abandoned when they have fulfilled their usefulness.:-?

      • @Bruce
        Interesten info on price effect per restriction on Russian oil.
        One thing I’d like to add though is that over time the effect would diminish. $300 oil would lessen demand (somewhat), and it would vastly increase potential earnings on any new oil exploration.
        A base price over $100 already makes projects profitable at “extreme” locations.

        • Julian:
          Yes, you’re right that *sustained* higher oil prices would make oil extraction at less viable locations efficient.
          However, you’re also right in stating that higher oil prices cause demand destruction, which then automatically causes price erosion.
          Gulf companies in the US have indicated that they’re not willing to commit to mass investments unless they have the “certainty” of a return on investment — which either implies government support or a *sustained* high oil price.
          However, oil price is notoriously fickle — as are the whims of the countries that supply oil — so who can give any guarantees on this?

        • Julian (and others):
          You may enjoy this very informative article, which comes from a dedicated oil news website and which explains how difficult it is for the US to replace Russian oil.
          An oil analyst on CNBC said yesterday that this issue needs to be resolved very quickly in order to prevent long lines at US gas stations. By extension, the effect on aviation would be grave.

          Note that yesterday’s dip in oil prices was caused by a false glimmer of hope derived from a statement made by the UAE; overnight, reality has moved back to center stage, and the oil price is climbing again.


          Indicative of the changing geopolitical landscape w.r.t. oil (and also alluded to in the link above):
          “Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders ‘decline calls with Biden’ amid fears of oil price spike. The Gulf nations have capacity to pump more oil to ease supply fears but relations with the US have chilled under Biden”


          • @Julian

            -> One thing I’d like to add though is that over time the effect would diminish. $300 oil would lessen demand (somewhat) …

            A replay of 1973-74??
            That’s a *recession*, and people were lining up to refill their cars (now pickups/”trucks”). 55 mph speed limit? How many businesses went bankrupt?

            Demand destruction!!


            What a slap in the face by two M.E. schoolyard bullies!

          • @Pedro
            When talking about $300 oil, we’re talking about peak price on the spot market, right? Not long term contracts.

            With all the newly created dollars of the last 2 years it would be crazy if the sustained long term price would stay below $80-90.

            Also keep in mind one of the reasons we had low oil prices is because the Saudis (with the lowest production cost) have been trying to hurt Iran (and others) by keeping prices low.

      • -Further to your posts regarding the closure of Australian Oil Refineries and supposed vulnerability to supply sanctions. The article is from the ABC which is somewhat left wing and fond of criticising the right wing government nevertheless its a valid criticism to inquire about.
        -I’ll try and get on topic because it does have to do with fuel prices.
        -Note that Australia has to import around 50% of its oil. There is offshore production in Bass Straight (between Tasmania & the mainland) and this oil is pumped of shore for refining in the State of Victoria. This is a very light oil and must be mixed with a heavier crude. Oil refineries in the rest of Australia have been shutting down since it is cheaper to import ‘white oil’ in the form of refined gasoline, jet fuel and diesel from highly efficient super refineries in Indonesia and Malaysia.
        Australia’s relations are fairly good with both Indonesia and Malaysia. We have public spats when they want to execute an Australian drug smuggler, or Indonesia slaughters cattle inhumanely or 20 years ago when we had to invade East Timer to make it independent because Indonesian special forces, koposus, were funding and organising a genocide there through criminal gangs. A lot of people even Indo were relieved.
        -The relations are good, we’re not going to get cut off. This is not Russia supplying us and we are not completely dependant.
        -A war of sanctions with China over an Invasion or Taiwan or Human rights might lead to a Chinese blockade which would require importation of refined fuel from the ME or USA. Australia has a large surplus of Natural Gas and is a large scale exporter of LNG. Power generation and industry is not going to shut down.
        -Australia could easily build Gas to Fuel plants, as our friends in NZ did and they would be producing affordable high grade fuel much cheaper than crude today. It is of course not worth it given crude will drop to $15 one day again. The Saudi’s can produce at $10/barrel and no alternative tech can compete with that so $35/barrel synthetics are not worth it.

        -At the moment brown coal is being converted to hydrogen with the CO2 pumped to oil fields to sequester and enhance recovery. The country is now exporting hydrogen to Japan. There a large scale win power ammonia plants being built and a $50 billion dollar hydrogen and electro fuels investments are being planed for NW Australia using renewables.

    • -> Embraer’s E190 P2F will be perfect mail planes and if these is oil price hike they will be the right price to keep priority items flying even if e-commerce parcels decline.

      In a world of high oil price: the E1 are doomed, freighters or not. 🤣

  7. Further indications of the extent to which “the west” is shooting itself in the foot with pointless, ill-conceived sanctions:
    CNBC: “Treasury yields jump as inflation fears rise”

    “U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday morning, amid fears that an import ban on Russian oil could increase inflationary pressures.

    “The possibility of an import ban on Russian oil has added to these fears, and saw U.S. crude hitting a 13-year high of $130 on Sunday.

    “Investors are worried that an import ban could have a stagflationary effect, where the economy slows but inflation moves higher.”

    Summing up: higher energy prices, higher metal prices, higher grain prices, increasing inflation + economic stagnation = stagflation, increased borrowing costs due to rising bond yields. A particularly perfect storm for the aviation sector.
    The best way to tackle this war is to supply arms and resources to Ukraine — that’s the way it’s always worked in regional conflicts.

    • Nickel price doubled overnight. Russia supplies *only* 10%!

      No vision -> no strategy. No strategy -> no plan. Only reaction day by day, hour by hour.

    • Hello Bryce,

      Re: “U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday morning, amid fears that an import ban on Russian oil could increase inflationary pressures.”

      See below for yields of US and Russian central bank or treasury 10 year bonds at around 10:00 AM US Central Time on 3-8-22, according to tradingecoomics.com. Russian yield is more than 10 times higher than the US rate, yet the Ruble is still dropping to record lows against the US Dollar, i.e. Investors are seeing US bonds with a yield of 1.8456% as being a better deal than Russian bonds with a yield of 19.89%.

      USA 1.8456%
      Russia 19.89%

      And some more 10 year government bond rates as of around 10 AM US Central Time on 3-8-22.

      Germany 0.095%
      Japan 0.168%
      Switzerland 0.221%
      France 0.543%
      Taiwan 0.725%
      UK 1.421%
      South Korea 2.722%
      China 2.839%
      India 6.896%
      Indonesia 6.798%
      Mexico 8.345%
      Brazil 12.155%
      Turkey 24.91%


      While Vladimir Putin seems to see Russia (2020 GDP 1.483 trillion USD) as a superpower on the par with the US (2020 GDP 20.94 trillion USD) and China (2020 14.72 trillion USD), the international investment community seems to see Russian as being a peer of Brazil (2020 GDP 1.445 trillion USD) and Turkey (2020 GDP 0.721 trillion USD). Russia’s Irkut might have hoped to have achieve success in the commercial aircraft market similar to that of Brazil, which has a similar GDP, instead Russia elected to spend large amounts of its limited GDP (much smaller than the US or China) on weapons to be used in the invasion of a neighboring country, that has destroyed relations with many countries in which there were many potential customers.

      • Thanks you AP.

        But then lets not let facts get in the way of alternatives.

        Would have, could have, should have. Ask Iran how having oil embargoed worked out.

        And in fact India is vastly coal driven so high priced oil does them less than no good.

        Most of Soviet oil and gas is deliverable to Europe not Asia. It would take 5 years to start moving deliverables.

        And that assumes China wants to get in the same boat as the Soviets. Anyone can make cheap stuff. They are replaceable. More so than the Soviets but in fact those Soviets are being shunted.

        EU is waking up and seeing the carnage and its right next door with “people who look like us”.

        • “Ask Iran how having oil embargoed worked out.”

          Iran has been shipping almost 1 million barrels of oil per day to China for many months. It even built a new oil terminal to facilitate these exports.

          • Hello Bryce,

            According the the 2-2-22 Aljezeera article at the link below Iran’s Oil exports dropped by a factor of 6.25 from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2017 to less than 0.4 million barrels a day in 2020, and inflation in Iran was running at an annual rate of more than 42% as of February 2022. If one believes that these are negligible effects (I don’t), then one can believe that sanctions on Iran have been ineffective.

            “Annual inflation is running north of 42 percent, according to Iran’s statistical office. The national currency, the rial, has lost more than half of its value in the past three years. Oil exports fell from roughly 2.5 million barrels per day in 2017 to less than 0.4 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the US Energy Information Administration – though they did start to slightly recover last year.”


            According to the USIP website at the link below, Iran’s oil exports in 2021 increased from 2020 to 2021, but are still down by a factor of about 2 from 2017 levels.

            “Iran did not release oil export data, but TankerTrackers.com, which monitors Iranian transfers via satellite imagery, estimated that Tehran has sold approximately 1.2 million barrels per day on average of crude oil and condensate. China was the buyer of the majority of these barrels.

            Those sales, however, did not necessarily yield much revenue for Iran. Government records indicated that it only received a tiny portion of the dollar value of the exports, even assuming that Iran sold oil at a steep discount. ”


          • Hello AP,
            I’m not saying that the sanctions on Iran have had no effect: they clearly have caused considerable misery for the Iranian people. However:
            – Have they caused regime change? NO: the new regime is actually even more hardline than the old one.
            – Have they changed Iran’s nuclear policies? NO
            – Have they changed Iran’s support of regional insurgency groups? NO
            – Have they served to push Iran into China’s arms? YES

            Do you call that a successful outcome?

          • AP,
            You seem to be an erudite individual, so you should enjoy some reading.
            This article is in a US publication, and one of its authors is an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University. The article explains in detail why sanctions on Russia are a futile exercise.


            If you don’t like this particular publication, a brief internet search will reveal MANY alternatives that express the same basic message.

          • Hey @AP

            Americans want to swap Russian oil & gas with Iranian’s? So sanctions by U.S. caused Iranian oil export to drop.

            Now Americans want Iranian to ride to rescue?? Another case of shooting itself in the foot.

            With 2022 hindsight, wouldn’t it be better if the U.S. had played “nice” with Iranian all along??

          • @AP and others

            Today’s inflation rate was the highest since 1982. Remind me what’s the treasury yield of that era.

            Re: Paul Volcker Saturday night massacre

          • Hello Pedro,

            Re: “Today’s inflation rate was the highest since 1982.”

            According to Tradingeconomics.com, the annual inflation rate in February 2022 was 7.9% in the US and 9.15 % in Russia. Whereas 7.9% was the highest inflation rate in the US since January 1982, 9.15% was the highest rate in Russia since January 2016, i.e., such high rates of inflation are far less unusual in Russia than they are in the US.

            “Russia’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 9.15 percent in February of 2022, from 8.73 percent in the previous month. It was the highest reading since January of 2016, as inflation rose sharply through 2021 and is now over twice as high as the central bank’s target of 4 percent, while forecasts point to surging figures in 2022 amid sanctions from the west and raw materials shortages due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite the central bank’s emergency rate hike to 20 percent from 9.5 percent. Upward pressure came from prices of food (11.46 percent vs 11.09 percent in January), namely for fruits and vegetables (16.05 percent vs 16.01 percent), services (6.1 percent vs 5.38 percent), and non-food products (8.96 percent vs 8.73 percent), mainly for construction materials (22.48 percent vs 22.8 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 1.17 percent, the steepest increase since January of 2015, following a 1 percent increase in the prior month.”


            “Annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 7.9% in February of 2022, the highest since January of 1982, matching market expectations. Energy remained the biggest contributor (25.6% vs 27% in January), with gasoline prices surging 38% (40% in January). Inflation accelerated for shelter (4.7% vs 4.4%); food (7.9% vs 7%, the largest since July of 1981), namely food at home (8.6% vs 7.4%); new vehicles (12.4% vs 12.2%); and used cars and trucks (41.2% vs 40.5%). Excluding volatile energy and food categories, the CPI rose 6.4%, the most in 40 years.”


          • Hi AP

            Look a bit further back and you found the result of Americans’ shock therapy:

            Inflation of Russia: 197% in 1995

            but wait

            over *2,300%* in early 1990s.

      • Hello AP,
        Not sure if Scott will allow this reply, but here we go.

        Russia’s sovereign debt is only 20% of GDP, and it has a current account *surplus* of 7%. On money markets, it’s a net creditor — i.e. it lends more than it borrows. It therefore has minimal inconvenience from high interest rates.

        In contrast, the US has sovereign debt of 122% of GDP, and a current account *deficit* of 8.3%. It is thus very dependent on borrowing, and very sensitive to increasing interest rates. Total federal debt is $26.7 trillion — so, just a small rate hike increases annual interest repayments dramatically. In 2021, interest payments accounted for 15% of all US federal income.

        • Exactly. During the last two years, the Fed accumulated almost $6 trillion deficits and have to pay .. wait … let me count … $562.4 billion interest in FY 2021. *Oh BTW that’s b4 interest rate shot up.*

      • “Investors are seeing US bonds with a yield of 1.8456% as being a better deal than Russian bonds with a yield of 19.89%.”

        you have to keep an eye on the exchange rate and how that develops. ( depending on which denomination space you are drawing your investment from).

  8. @ Scott
    I put my most recent comment in here before I saw your remark in the other LNA article below. Sorry about that. I’ll drop the subject.

    • You really need to read the article

      “The long-term effects of the Ukraine war aren’t factored in. It’s too soon to draw conclusions.”

      That clearly allows discussion on the impacts of the Invasion of Ukraine here, though clearly Scott means not the other discussion.

  9. Hi Scott,

    How big is the market of Embraer E1 P2F??

  10. Hi Scott

    According to unconfirmed report: the total of direct cash operating cost and direct maintenance cost of the E190 comes close to $7.3k each op. hour, more than A319/320/321 !

    • @Pedro, what is your source for the E190 hourly costs?

    • I am not sure if hedging is good out bad. Airlines have lost billions getting their hedging strategy wrong and if you hedge, some middleman is getting a cut somewhere so in average long terms costs are higher.

      A safer bet is to fly your most efficient planes (where I live, SQ definitely did that last 2 years by maximising deployment of their A350 and 787-10 fleets and reducing 777s – even 77W) and keep your fleet young and efficient. I think airlines like British Airways will run in trouble here.

      In the long run, especially Europe will get a shock and has the make huge changes to their energy mix. Tough choices need to be made and NIMBY concerns (dead birds from wind turbines, ugly solar panels spoiling the view, nuclear) will have to take a back seat to energy security. The biggest will be to get energy consumption overall down by at least 25%, which is technically not super complicated. For aviation this might have to mean less flights with larger aircraft (e.g. 3 x daily A321neo instead of 6x daily A320ceo on a route).

      • In the current economic environment, fuel hedging may make the difference between survival and termination.

        “Oil’s recent price jump to over $130 per barrel after the Ukraine invasion has shocked many market pundits and experts, including Bank of America. The bank’s global research team said they now see a scenario where Brent crude oil prices, the international benchmark, could rise to $175 per barrel by the second quarter. That means more pressure at the pump for average consumers around the world.”


        Windmills and solar panels are utterly useless on windstill nights.
        Russian crude oil is “heavy, sour crude”, and contains constituents not found in the “light, sweet crude” in the US. It is an illusion to think that Russian crude can be easily replaced.

        • Here’s an informative article on why you can’t just switch crude oil suppliers at a whim:

          “A lot of refineries, especially in the Gulf Coast, made a very expensive bet to invest in this equipment that would allow them to save money on input costs by processing, you know, lower-quality crude,” said Richard Sweeney, an assistant professor of economics at Boston College.

          “Then came the fracking boom. Fracking produces light, sweet crude that can’t be refined with that equipment.

          ““And it’s just like the economics of that bet turned out, ex-post, to be really bad,” Sweeney said.

          “Even though a lot of that light sweet crude is coming from Texas, where the refineries are, the U.S. imports foreign oil in order to make use of the existing infrastructure.”


  11. It is interesting we are talking about the smallest cargo planes in the whole freighter systems, when the largest air freighter in The World was just destroyed in the Ukrainian War. There’s got to be a little irony there. The An-225 Myriad was turned to toast. I thought there was a second 225 that could be out-fitted fairly easy, but I read where it was only 70% completed. Maybe a C-5 will be contracted for those huge heavy cargos.

    • There’s always “Air Beluga,” the new Airbus A300 Beluga airline

    • Hello SamW,

      Re: “It is interesting we are talking about the smallest cargo planes in the whole freighter systems …”

      From the Department of Nitpicking:

      According to the Wikipedia by far the most numerous aircraft type in the FedEx system is the even smaller Cessna 208B Super Cargomaster, which is a single engine turboprop. Every night a couple of hundred of these aircraft fan out from FedEx hubs to smaller cities across the US.

      The three most numerous aircraft type in the FedEx system according to Wikipedia.

      1) The Leviathan of the Airways known to men as the Cessna 208B Super Cargomaster: 235
      2) Boeing 757-200SF: 115
      3) Boeing 767-300F: 112 (with another 40 on order)


      • Good point and Cessna is building a new nice little freighter for Fedex the next size up

        This will be the plane serving the small airports for Fedex. A jet cargo plane only works for longer flights where the speed matters and the vast supply of older B737 and A320 gives more flexible options
        But if Embraer gets 50 conversions over the next 10 years it will work out for them

    • I can share the “second An-225” photo dated 2018 with you.

      There is a stripped-down fuselage which has been stored in the open air for many years.

      What is really important is that Antonov and VolgaDnepr are going out of the market. None of An-124 will be accessible for commercial cargo shipment.

      • Gentlemen: If the An-225 and the An-124 are no longer available, that is a hindrance to hauling heavy, heavy loads. The Beluga can take outsized cargos, but pure weight according to what is online, the An-124 and 225 lift between 300,000 to 400,000 pounds. I don’t think the Beluga hits a 100,000. Also, I did not know there were all these “regional” freighters around. The airports I’m by have these massive MD-11s, A300s, 310s. I just figured trucks were mostly used to the hinterlands.

  12. -> “As of Jan. 15, there were 36 E195-E1s and 159 E190-E1s in storage. There are 422 E190-E1s and 169 E195-E1s in service.”

    Who owns them? Airlines vs. lessors? Are they ready to book losses?? Where are these jets, S. America, N. America, Europe, Asia or Africa??

    • As a follow-up question, how many are parked (temporarily) because of pilot shortage??

    • airfleets*net search indicates the stored and the active(parked) planes are mixed amoung all the users

    • Well, the turn-around shows the fallacy of making “grandstand” promises based on idealism rather than realism.
      Environmental groups like to make sweeping, pep-talk statements such as “humanity can do this”…but the nitty-gritty details in the real world are far more complicated.
      The current shutting down of working nuclear power plants is a good example of head-in-the-sand idealism.

  13. No surprises here — when is the penny going to drop?
    “China Plans To Take Advantage Of The Big Oil Exodus From Russia”

    “- The exodus of Western companies from Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine has left a business vacuum that China is very interested in filling.
    – Notably, China is interested in taking advantage of the oil, gas, and metals projects that have been left behind by various companies boycotting Russia.
    – It seems that sanctions and boycotts on Russia may have the unintended consequence of strengthening China’s efforts to internationalize the yuan.”

    “Amid an exodus of Western European and U.S. companies from Russia, Chinese businesses are seeking to take their place, Bloomberg reported this week, citing unnamed sources in the know.

    “It was only a matter of time, really. Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does business. Chinese business, in addition to this, is quite pragmatic, unlike its Western counterparts and competitors. So, once BP, Shell, and pretty much everyone but French TotalEnergies left Russia in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, Chinese energy firms owned by the government started considering moving in.

    “According to Bloomberg sources, the government in Beijing is talking to four state-owned entities about the acquisition of stakes in Russian oil and metals companies. The entities include China National Petroleum Corp, or CNPC, China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, the country’s largest refiner, as well as Aluminum Corp and China Minmetals Group.”


  14. It seems that CNN isn’t aware of the “backdoor options” for acquiring plane parts…
    “Flying on Russian planes is about to get much more dangerous”

    “Sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union mean that the world’s two major aircraft makers, Boeing (BA) and Airbus (EADSF), are no longer able to supply spare parts or provide maintenance support for Russian airlines. The same is true of jet engine makers.

    “That means Russian airlines could run out of necessary parts within a matter of weeks, or fly planes without having equipment replaced as frequently as recommended to operate safely.”