The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 4.

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By Bjorn Fehrm

August 3, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and the reality as they come closer to Certification and Production.

After looking at claims of range and utility, we now look at the operating economics. To do that, we need to predict the net sales price of these machines. We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to predict the production cost over time and, thus, the needed net sale price of the VTOLs.

Figure 1. The Archer Aviation Midnight VTOL mockup at the Paris Air show. Source: Leeham Co.

  • The VTOLs are big; the Archer Midnight is the size of a nine-seater commuter aircraft (Figure 1). Aircraft costs are related to size and weight.
  • VTOLs use aeronautical production methods and supply chains for parts and systems. The production costs are, therefore, predictable.

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