Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 14. March 21, 2025
- How good is the COMAC C919? March 20, 2025
- Boeing CFO Brian West: OK on tariffs for now, backlogs and inventories help March 20, 2025
- Pontifications: Southwest’s core problems are not solved by business model changes-yet March 19, 2025
- Boeing 2024 Proxy Statement: Executive Compensation includes retirement gifts for Calhoun, Deal; housing support for Ortberg, Pope, and other stuff March 17, 2025
Boeing 3Q deliveries up despite strike
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Third quarter deliveries by Boeing were up slightly despite a strike the last two weeks of the quarter by its machinists union.
Boeing deliveries 92 737s during the quarter, despite lower new-production rates hovering around +/- 20/mo. The company doesn’t break out deliveries from the lingering inventory of 737s vs new production aircraft. Deliveries of the 787 also are a mix of new-production airplanes and those from inventory that required rework from a production flaw discovered in 2020.
Boeing said deliveries included “new-build production units, including remanufactures and modifications.”
Year To Date and Year-Over-Year
Boeing delivered more 737s this quarter than the 2023 third quarter. But deliveries of the 767F, 777F and 787 were lower quarter-over-quarter.
Deliveries of each aircraft type were lower for the nine months this year vs 2023.
93 737 deliveries for the quarter is not terrible, considering.
I wonder how the strike negotiations are going.
2024 9 month numbers are 20%+ less than comparable 2023 numbers.
That afaics is a distinct downturn.
Then dividing the 9month numbers by 3 seems to indicate
less deliveries in each 3rd quarter than average for first 3 quarters?
Some benchmarking:
Looks like AB delivered 50 frames in September…vs. 33 frames delivered by BA.
That brings the 9-month delivery figure at AB to 497 (the BA figure is 291).
The 33 deliveries from BA in Sep compare to 40 in Aug, 43 in Jul and 44 in Jun…so there’s a distinct downtrend.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/1004/1473676-airbus-sept-deliveries-fell-9-to-50-jets-sources-say/
https://www.cityam.com/boeing-deliveries-fall-as-strikes-impact-output/
—
Further:
“The aircraft handed over last month had already been cleared by US regulators prior to the strike by 33,000 members of International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, who walked off the job on Sept. 13, closing down manufacturing across the west coast of the US.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/boeing-cautions-on-deliveries-after-strike-curbs-aircraft-output/
So, the real delivery-figure drama will come in October…
For those interested, this link also breaks down the deliveries at BDS for Q3 and 9Mo 2024:
https://www.travelindustrywire.com/article133530.html
for the sake of variety “Airbus CEO Indicates Potential For Final Assembly Line In India”
https://simpleflying.com/airbus-ceo-indicates-aircraft-final-assembly-line-india/
Something that we’ve anticipated for a long time.
No surprise: Airbus already has a C295 FAL in India, and is currently constructing a FAL there for H125 helicopters.
https://en.channeliam.com/2024/09/10/c295-program-airbus-tata-advanced-systems-india/
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/groundbreaking-ceremony-for-airbus-h125-final-assembly-line-before-year-end/article68429631.ece
Indigo and Air India could support their own FAL by themselves
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-strike-stock-price-5e507a23
Not quite sure but if Boeing has trouble producing safe planes in the best of times I worry about those produced with the machinists on strike. Kind of a “hustle to get planes out the door because we need sales to get revenue” situation.
The situation will be even worse when the strike ends, because there’ll be no proper record of what’s already done and what still needs to be done on the various partial frames on the line…
They arent working on the assembly line !
Theres always a number of planes rolled out of final assembly and painted which are ‘awaiting delivery’ for some reason (test flights?) as well as the stored 737s being readied for delivery
Plus Charleston isnt on strike
Doesn’t IAM represent workers at BFI?
I heard 777-9 flight test won’t be able to proceed (even if they can get the thrust link fixed) during strike!
Non Union
Its silly to think flight test personnel belong to a touch labour machinists union.
The engine nacelles are made by a different company, Safran !
Firstly South Carolina 787 site isnt on strike. Theres still a lot of 737 built previously which were stored.
Rejuvenation of stored planes isnt done by the assembly line union assemblers and machinists – who are new builds only
When the IAM workers walked out 3 weeks ago, there were partially completed frames on the line…for various models of aircraft.
When/if work resumes on those, it’s anyone’s guess what parts will be forgotten or misfitted.
I ascribe to the principle that when things are vague it is done deliberately. We will all know the tally of whenever Boeing presents Q3 earnings, but if I had to hazard a guess they were delivering about 10/ month out of deep storage, which would leave around 70 left after September (and closing out Q2 2025).
Bloomberg
Boeing at Risk of S&P Junk Rating as Strike Continues
Reuters
S&P Places Boeing’s Rating on CreditWatch Negative as Strike Drags On
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-10-08/s-p-places-boeings-rating-on-creditwatch-negative-as-strike-drags-on
Reuters
Boeing Weighs Options for Raising Cash as Ratings Downgrade Looms, Sources Say
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-10-08/boeing-weighs-options-for-raising-cash-as-ratings-downgrade-looms-sources-say
CNN:
Talks between Boeing and striking union have broken down
Gosh, Ortberg really is “resetting relations”, isn’t he?
There’s a memo from the elusive Ms. Pope:
““Unfortunately, the union didn’t seriously consider our proposals,” Stephanie Pope, who runs Boeing’s commercial airplane unit, said in a memo shared by company. “Instead, the union made non-negotiable demands far in excess of what can be accepted if we are to remain competitive as a business.””
—
“…remain competitive as a business…”
As if (deliberately) selling planes at a loss satisfies this condition…
They should have thought about remaining “competitively as a business…” when these designed the 737MAX…
Or when McNear-sighted and the other CEOs decided to outsource so much of the 787 to Low Cost Countries to avoid paying living wages and increase their endless compensation.
The Union’s mad that these terrible men have destroyed this company.
One might wonder why the IAM strike itself was not enough
to lower BA’s stock rating, and stock price. Mmm.
It really is a funny ol’ world. 😉
It seems money is running out at Boeing and it might be time for Jay Alix of GM ch.11 fame to do it again with Boeing.
Just goes to show how little you know. If that was a real prospect the share price might be 10% of what it is.
Boeing’s share value has for a long time not reflected
the status and prospects of the company.
It is a carefully and intricately managed share.
often with spreading of misleading or even false rumors …
You should short the stock and make a fortune then. I think you have no idea of why its at the current level. The biggest shareholders are very very smart Wall St types.
Boeing stock IS way down on its numbers in 2019. As it should be , the shareholders had the glory times and now the bad times.
Good luck with ‘managing up share price ‘ , its too silly for words
“short stock, get rich”
dumb statement. only works in the transition from “managed” to “breakdown”.
It is hard to understand what Boeing’s game plan really is at this point. The strike is already 4 weeks in and the negotiations have broken down, this can’t end well.
Surprised the share price hasn’t taken another hit yet, still trading around 155.
In June just after Ethiopan catastrophy I wrote a message here to BCA advising them not to lie and get the future of there finance right
They paid huge amounts to sharehoders, take 3 years to start thinking of restructure technical and quality management not only on 737 but all other product… aso …
So sorry to see their next step i.e. sell their assets at a damn low price 😥😥