Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Reader Comments Open Forum, Week of April 13
LNA’s Comments Open Forum allows Readers opportunities to comment about any post (note, we said “Post”, not any “Topic”). All comments will be held for review and Moderation per our new policy. The Open Forum enables Readers to Comment on paywall articles (to the extent the paywall preview is open to all readers).
Maintain civility and follow Reader Comment rules.
A new Open Forum will be posted weekly.
Effect of the Iran war on Gulf economies:
“GCC countries are facing economic meltdowns, with severe hits to tourism and business confidence thanks to the ongoing conflict. Gulf nations now have to contend with slowed economic growth or recession risks, with Kuwait and Qatar potentially facing up to 14% contractions in GDP due to blocked oil exports and infrastructure attacks. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to see smaller but still significant GDP drops of approximately 5% and 3%, respectively, as they can partially reroute some oil flows. Regional stock exchanges have tumbled, with Dubai’s market experiencing a 15% drop and markets in Abu Dhabi and Qatar falling by 5% to 10%. Meanwhile, the cost of insuring against default (credit default swap spreads) has risen sharply for Bahrain and Dubai.
“The regional travel and tourism industry is losing an estimated €515 million ($600 million) per day, with total visitor spending losses for the region projected to reach between $34 billion and $56 billion in the current year. Overall, the conflict is projected to cost GCC nations nearly $200 billion in lost economic output due to contracting growth, reduced oil exports and sector disruptions, with regional oil revenue losses estimated at $1.1 billion per day.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-the-Iran-War-Is-Disrupting-Gulf-Economies-5-Key-Effects.html
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Worth noting that the ME3 airlines are all state-owned. If the state is losing money, then airline investment probably won’t be top of the budgetary list.
To tell you the truth – and having lived in this part of the world for a while – I suspect the prime concern for many people living there is Will we still have electricity and will we still have water if this get’s out of hand?
It’s not only air conditioning, a large part of drinking water in major Gulf cities comes from electric powered desalination plants and both electric power stations and desalination plants are easy targets.
article title COMAC C919 Certification Advances with EASA’s Ongoing Shanghai Tests
“COMAC C919 Certification Advances with EASA’s Ongoing Shanghai Tests EASA have reportedly stationed pilots and technical staff in the city for extended periods to accelerate evaluation work.
EASA has entered an advanced phase of certification for the C919, focusing heavily on in-flight testing and technical validation. These test flights form part of a structured four-stage approval process required before the aircraft can operate commercially in Europe.”
PS How’s that big Boeing order coming from China hmmm….EU (Airbus) supplies China’s Comac EASA certification and US (Boeing) puts export sanctions on US engines for Comac Geopolitics at its simplistic!
Add in the newly-enacted US naval blockade of Iranian ports — which directly affects Chinese shipping — and that “imminent” order becomes more and more doubtful.
Moreover: Trump is threatening new 50% tariffs on China, because of rumored Chinese weaponry supply to Iran. It won’t be surprising if the already-postponed summit with Xi gets postponed again.
As I’ve said before, if they can get a world class support organization set up in the markets they hope to sell to, they will be successful. The fact that they developed the worlds largest high speed rail network in just twenty years shows they may have the capability. Granted, building and supporting a aerospace industry is much moe compilcated than building a railroad. But they have the cash and definitely the resolve.
Recent partnership with FHD appears to part of an effort to build a global support network. https://avitrader.com/2026/02/13/fdh-aero-deepens-comac-ties-to-support-c919-programme/
David.
Those of us in the business know that the flying is the easy part. The PRODUCTION CERTIFICATE is far more difficult and has been the Achilles heel of the Chinese LCA experience. Its far harder to do.
Chat GPT
“Validation vs. original certification
In the C919’s case, there’s an important nuance:
The aircraft already has a type certificate from the Chinese regulator (CAAC)
EASA would therefore perform a validation of that design, but:
The end result is still an EASA Type Certificate (validated TC)
Not a different certificate category”
“EASA would issue:
A CS-25 Type Certificate (validated) for a large transport aeroplane
—not a new or special certificate class.”
There is no validation of CAAC efforts unless they already established a common certification system. I would say with some certainty that CAAC isnt in the same ball park as the FAA and EASA arrangements.
However its a one way street that CAAC largely accepts EASA standards
David.
You make an assumption that is not correct. When I speak of the Production Certificate being more difficult, you need to understand that it IS INDEED a separate thing not related to the aircraft design certification. The TYPE certificate says it is fit and proven safe to fly. The Production Certificate says you have demonstrated a nrepeatable assembly process that produces a conforming product in a safe and traceable manner. When Boeing lost the Alaska door, The FAA’s actions were directed almost entirely at Boeing’s Production Certificate and associated production oversight — not the Type Certificate.
Here’s why that distinction matters and what actually happened:
The door plug blew off because four bolts that should have secured the door plug were never reinstalled after being removed at Boeing’s Renton factory to allow rivet rework. Boeing failed to provide adequate training, guidance, and oversight to ensure manufacturing personnel consistently complied with its parts removal process. This was a manufacturing execution failure, not a design defect. The Type Certificate (which certifies the design itself) was sound — the door plug, when properly bolted, met its design standards. There was nothing wrong with what was on paper. Production, not Design failed.
SO WHATS IN A PRODUCTION CERTIFICATE
This is where the Chinese have a difficult time. Everything you do on an airplane requires a design requirement. The Production certificate is issued when you prove you can make the airplane per drawing for sale. There are 3 basic parts of a Production Certificate. People, Parts and Processes. People need to be defined, quality inspectors, metrology, sealers, welders, painters, crane operatiors, truck drivers, boiler operators, the list is near endless. All of these positions need to be defined, monitored, periodic certification/recertification where needed.
Parts are tough. All the parts are in the Bill of materials. Not all parts are under your control and require different treatments to maintain control. Design parts you created, those are not to terribly hard. Standard parts are mind boggling. A simple rivet will give you an idea. If I want to use a simple Ms20470AD3 -3 rivet. An aluminum universal head 3/32 diameter rivet, you have to be REALLY careful. You don’t control how it’s made but you are responsible for how it performs. This means you convert every standard part into a Vendor Part. Boeing for example has a manual of thousands of BOEING FASTENERS, BACR for bolts, Bacs for screws and on. All of those need a Boeing drawing restating what the requirements are so that going into the future YOU control what it is, what it measures and who is approved to be a vendor. You need to define the material, the, process for acceptance, the heat treating requirements, the method to identify the part, How the part is finished, anodized, electroplated, conductive parts wash, how it is to be packaged.
Every standard part, every different size. Same for drill bits and common tools, extrusions you machine parts out of, Sealant, paints, windows, carpet, seat tracks, wires, wire connectors, its limited only by your imagination. And every time you change anything, you revise all the processes that touch it, and if the process is changed, you need to verify the change works, od force the change to be a stand alone new process. Its like juggling flaming chainsaws in Sedro Wooley at Logger rodeo.
Processes are the real killer. How you drill, how you fasten, how you assemble, how you test, how you inspect, how you lubricate, how you record shelf lives, its a truckload of books of stuff that point to the drawings to explain how everything gets there and how it go’s together.
The testing for wire insulation on its own can take a thousand hours to define, test and approve. this body of work as it exists at Boeing Embraer and Airbus is volumes and volumes of single spaced data. it is so large that saying huge is insufficient.
This is why the Production Certificate is so important and much harder to maintain, its a living organism full of daily changes subject to regulatory audit at their pleasure. AND the reason the Chinese have a tough time is that this mountain of documentation must be created specific to the data owner, and the Chinese lack the manufacturing past in LCAs that exist elsewhere.
Can anyone point me to the production certificate of Boeing 737-8 from Transport Canada? Or CAAC?
AI Summary:
> Production Certificate Authority: The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is the authority that issues Production Certificates to Boeing, as the manufacturer is based in the United States.
So why the hell people here think it’d apply differently if the aircraft is made in another country???
PEDRO wrote
[Edited]
Continuing for David ans anyone else actually following the discussion.
The Production Certificate is issued by the regulatory agency with oversight of the Manufacturer. The production certificate requirements are basically the same between the big 3. It does NOT apply differently. Airbus Boeing and Embraer are all custodians of tremendous tech librarys to support their individual products. These collections are built over decades and many different aircraft and still get changed daily as new material specs or cutter technology are tested and approved for use added and proucts are obsoleted or removed from service through environmental decree. It is without question more difficult to create this data package then to certify an aircraft for a TC.
The Chinese are decades behind in the creation of this data library because they have not had a vibrant aerospace industry creating aircraft anything like the west. It isnt a measure of goodness or badness or the success or failure of the Chinese, its a factual representation of the documentary hill they need to climb. This is harder to do than a TC for an aircraft.
I sat elbow to elbow with Chinese Production Planners early in their LCA process. Most were knowlege sponges and were quite grateful of the training opporrunity. They were terribly out of their depth and knew it. Fast forward to today, they can build decent aircraft but are handicapped by not having the documented processes of the big 3. Its hard to develop this database and every month they get better, but its such a huge mountain to climb.
Read this:
> Last month, U.S. Space Force said it had reassigned its upcoming GPS launch to a SpaceX rocket for the fourth time, due to a glitch in the Vulcan rocket made by the Boeing and Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance.
It doesn’t take “decades’ experience” for SpaceX to push the Boeing Lockheed Martin JV out the market.
I may not be able to experience this first hand, but with today’s internet, at least I can look up for information.
FG (April 12, 1995):
> THE US FEDERAL Aviation Administration has issued its first type-certificate for an aircraft designed and produced in China – the Harbin Y-12 IV.
Its Part 23 approval of the twin-turboprop airliner forms part of a larger programme to bring the Civil Aviation Administration of China’s (CAAC) airworthiness regulations in line with FAA standards.
An FAA official in Asia says: “The Y-12 programme was used as a vehicle to demonstrate the **CAAC’s compatibility with FAR Part 23**.” He adds that most Chinese CCAR-23 certification procedures for small-category aircraft are now recognised by the FAA.
In 1991, the USA and China signed a bilateral airworthiness agreement, allowing the FAA and General Administration of Civil Aviation of China to oversee the manufacture of US aircraft in China. […]
The aircraft has already been certificated by the UK Civil Aviation Authority and is China’s top-selling commercial- aerospace export. Overseas sales to date total 61 aircraft to 13 countries, including Fiji, Malaysia, Nepal and Peru.
PEDRO
Thanks for showing us that the FAA has recognised the Harbin. The TC was issued in 1995 or 96. They did great work on a simple part 23 airplane. Ive been saying for years they will succeed in the industry since they play the long game. It makes sense to get a TC for a part 23 airplane before you try a part 25 program and that seemed to be their national plan. The Harbin remains the ONLY chinese aircraft to get an FAA TC
Nice Chat GPT work, way off point, but nice
Ahmadabad (AMD/VAAH) accident Air India 171, 787-8 VT-ANB
On Sunday, April 12, Simon Hradecky from the Aviation Herald website posted additional information regarding this accident:
a) Crash: India B788 at Ahmedabad on Jun 12th 2025, lost height shortly after takeoff, no thrust reported
and provided his own interpretation:
b) Editorial on India B788 at Ahmedabad on Jun 12th 2025, lost height shortly after takeoff, no thrust reported
It refers to information released on the same date by Safety Matters Foundation of India (NOT Flight Safety Foundation) that asserts that the RAT was deployed before a flight crew member cycled the fuel cutoff switch to OFF and then back to ON.
The 787 RAT will automatically deploy for several reasons, among others when both engine RPMs drop below idle. Crew action to recover the engine(s) calls for the cycling of the fuel cutoff switches.
The post concludes that the cycling of the cutoff switches may have been an attempt by a flight crew member to restore power.
I can neither prove nor disprove this conclusion, but I do wonder whether such a sequence would not have been picked up (and time-stamped) by the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and/or Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) and have been made public by now.
I also wonder whether the methodology (assessment and measurement of photographic data) will stand up against accident investor scrutiny.
Lastly, it remains to be seen whether in the few seconds’ timeframe that the foundation mentions and given the (What’s going on???) startle effect the crew could have identified the dual engine failure and taken the required corrective action.
Neither. am I convinced nor can I rule it out and speculation should be avoided in any accident investigation, but it certainly is food for thought.
Very inconvenient, from last week:
It appears that the RAT deployed 4 seconds *before* the fuel switches changed position…which would indicate that there was some sort of critical electrical failure just before rotation.
“Air India 171 crash: 4-second question that could change eveverything we think we know”
http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/130050205.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
The mystery of why both the CVR and FDR stopped working ⬇️
“About 9 seconds after the second switch returned to RUN, one of the pilots issued a mayday call, reporting a loss of thrust. An air traffic controller requested the flight’s call sign, but received no response. The cockpit voice and flight data recordings ended 6 seconds after the mayday call, 32 seconds after takeoff, at 13:39:11. At that point in time, the first engine had re-lit and was beginning to spool up. The second engine had also re-lit, but its core speed continued to fall while its FADEC introduced additional fuel in an attempt to recover thrust.”
To be clear:
My post is based on the preliminary investigation report via Wikipedia.
At this stage, I cannot find conclusive evidence that ‘there was some sort of critical electrical failure’, except after the engines started spooling down.
The article in The Times of India states:
‘1:38:47 pm —
The RAT hydraulic pump began supplying hydraulic power, as both engine N2 values (rotational speed) had passed below minimum idle speed.’
System architecture varies between aircraft types but a RAT supplies hydraulic and/or electric power in case of dual engine failure and certain other conditions, including after complete loss of electrical supply.
In this case, the newspaper statement suggests that engine RPM on both engine N2 shafts had dropped below idle speed and the subsequent loss of electrical power was a consequence of that.
The design is such that after a loss of electrical supply engines still keep running.
I ask all to terminate discussion of AI 171. The report in question is not from any official source. Despite its apparent detailed research, it nevertheless is speculative.
Hamilton
Yet when another Air India 787 experienced very similar events with the “So- called” defective fuel switches at departure from Heathrow ;
So what does the crew do…
Fly all the way to India, like a walk in the park .
Of course investigators demanded answers as to why the crew would decide to proceed,…
Nah . we’re good…
Enough said !!!!
Six or seven exclamation marks- rather than your mere four- would make your point more clearly.
All-CAPS should also be considered, for maximum effect.
> China issued its sharpest direct warning to Washington Monday as the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports took effect…
““Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor them and expect others not to meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us,” Dong said.”
“Analysts say Dong’s remarks signal that any U.S. attempt to intercept Chinese vessels would risk direct confrontation with the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Brent crude rallied as much as 8.6% to over $103 a barrel Monday before dropping below $100, while European gas futures spiked nearly 18%, per Bloomberg.”
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2043765952291000479
Theatre.. this is the first real infowar, being waged primarily online. Guess who the targets are?
Is the Strait open now, or closed- or is it now
Schrodinger’s Strait (my guess).
“In times of War, the first casualty is truth.”
Sorry, scratch that. Fake news.
Real news from Al Jazeera:
> BREAKING: China has called for unobstructed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a day after US President Donald Trump threatened to blockade it.
FM spokesman Guo Jiakun said keeping the strait secure and open is in the “common interest of the international community.”
Pedro said, on April 13, 2026:
“Sorry, scratch that. Fake news.”
How are you discerning these days what is, or is not, fake news?
“Trump Signals High Gas Prices Through November Midterms”
“U.S. President Donald Trump has acknowledged that gasoline prices might remain high through the November 2026 midterm elections, a rare admission of the potential political fallout from the ongoing war in the Middle East. Trump told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo that gas prices could “stay the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same” when asked if gas prices would be lower by the fall.
“Trump has defended the surge as a “very small price to pay” for long-term global safety and the neutralization of Iran’s nuclear threat. The U.S. national average price of gas stood at $4.125 per gallon on Monday, up from $3.630 a month ago and $3.189 a year ago.
“GasBuddy has warned that gas prices are set to rise again as oil markets surge following a collapse in ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran. After a brief dip, oil prices are surging again, leading to another potential jump at the pump this week.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Signals-High-Gas-Prices-Through-November-Midterms.html
The same (or worse) applies to jet fuel prices.
Needless to say, it isn’t the price at the pump that causes the biggest pain, although it gets a lot of attention. It’s the general price inflation throughout the economy triggered by the high energy costs which move elections.
Airfares jumping 15-25% will cause sales to slow. Airlines will adjuect their growth plans and perhaps scale back some services. As other have stated, premium air services appear to be inflation proof, so they will likely expand. But airfares for the rest of us will be noticeably higher. They’re already picking the low hanging fruit with checked baggage fees.
Chaos and confusion driven by erratic US policies will continue to be the norm. I guess this is what the transition to a New World Order looks like.
Long term airline industry growth seems to be anticipated. I know that the Seattle airport has many expansion projects scheduled. We’ll see how the current events impact that in the longer term.
This war all started – at least in one of the version issued by POTUS – in order to bring about regime change and as time goes by it’s beginning to look as though it might succeed……but in an unexpected quarter! I bet the Boeing Commercial Aircraft people will probably feel that would be a positive development for their prospects.
THE BOX SCORE SO FAR
FIXED-WING FIGHTERS
F-15E Strike Eagle 3 DESTROYED Mar 1, 2026
F-15E Strike Eagle 1 DESTROYED Apr 3, 2026
A-10 Thunderbolt II 1 DESTROYED Apr 3, 2026
F-35A Lightning II 1 DAMAGED Mar 19, 2026
TANKER AIRCRAFT
KC-135 Stratotanker 1 DESTROYED Mar 12, 2026
KC-135 Stratotanker 1 DAMAGED Mar 12, 2026
KC-135 Stratotanker 5 DAMAGED Mar 14, 2026
KC-135 Stratotanker 1 DESTROYED Mar 27, 2026
AIRBORNE WARNING & CONTROL
E-3G Sentry 1 DESTROYED Mar 27, 2026
E-3D Sentry 1 DAMAGED ~Mar 27, 2026
SPECIAL OPERATIONS / TRANSPORT
MC-130J 2 DESTROYED Apr 4-5, 2026
ROTARY WING
MH-6 / AH-6 4 DESTROYED Apr 4-5, 2026
UH-60 Black Hawk 2 DAMAGED Apr 4-5, 2026
CH-47 Chinook 1 DESTROYED ~Apr 5-7, 2026
UNMANNED SYSTEMS
MQ-9 Reaper 16-24+ DESTROYED Feb 28 – Apr 8, 2026
Thanks for the scorecard. Are these all US assets? Has Israel, UAE or Saudi Arabia lost any aircraft?
I don’t know much about how significant those losses are, but they seem like a lot to me. I read that the MC130J alone cost over $100 million each.
BTW, these losses are all from an adversary which doesn’t really have an air force or a navy. It’s rather impressive how they have leveraged their geography with missiles, rockets and drones.
On the Iran side I read that they have lost over 60 airliners which is a substantial portion of their operational fleet.
The MC-130Js and the AH-6s were deliberately destroyed in the pilot rescue operation I believe. Apparently the 130s got stuck in the mud at the forward deployed staging zone. Not a great way to lose an aircraft but at least the mission was successful.
Add the MQ-4C that values more than $600m they finally have to come clean.
BA delivered 33 MAX in March.
“Boeing had to rework about 25 planes to fix the [scratched wiring] issue”.
Total MAX deliveries for Q1: 113
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787 deliveries in March: 7
787 deliveries in Q1: 15
“Malave said in March that there have also been “issues here and there” on some interior components for the 787 “from a quality standpoint,” without elaborating on what issues he had seen.
“Quality needs to get better, so that we can improve the delivery,” he said. ”
===
Total deliveries for March (all models): 51.
…including 3 777F, 1 767F, 1 KC-46A, 1 P-8.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeings-max-deliveries-dip-even-as-quarterly-numbers-pass-2023-levels/
United CEO pitches merger to Trump that would create world’s largest airline: Report
“United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby pitched a merger between his company and American Airlines during a Feb. 25 meeting with President Trump, Reuters reported on Monday.”
“In 2023, United and American ranked first and third, respectively, in revenue by passenger miles among U.S.-based commercial airlines, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A merger of the would create the largest airline in the world.”
Feint south to strike north?
> Shares of American Airlines rose 7.6% at the open in US trading, while United Airlines gained 1.5%
> A220 Airspace launch customers:
Air Canada, Lufthansa, and Qantas all get it this year.
Iran War’s Economic Shock Wave Is Expected to Get Even Bigger
> “Unquestionably, everyone is worse off.”
The global economic damage from the war is only getting started.
For Gulf countries, it’s brutal. Capital Economics forecasts Qatar’s GDP to fall 13%, UAE by 8% and Saudi by 6.6%.
I wonder whether Qatar will ask for the 747-8 “gift” to be returned?
Thomas
These are US assetts only. And while the data is generally quite solid, there may be holes.
Cost of aircraft is a funny thing and the significance of each loss matters as it relates to the remaining fleet size and the consumption of its attrition aircraft. Take KC135s. They are of of attrition reserve and are consuming the fleet fatigue hoirs in excess of plan. This means to maintain the tanking plan, you need to bring flyables out of storage for boom count and look at ways to cover the fatigue life shortages. That may be something as simple as an airframe analysis to grant them more life or a SLEPping program. It could be the use of KC46s to shift load or actually putting the A10s off the booms in the future. Lots of ways to skin a cat here.
Aircraft Cost ia sort of irrelevant when you look at the armed forced. You buy capacity to engage in conflict. That has a price. All aircraft eventually get consumed either through flying thru their scheduled fatigue lives or being lost to an accident or condlict action. An aircraft fleet is like an hourglass. As the fleet ages, you take out sand. When you lose an airframe, if its NOT a planned attrition airframe, you take out sand. When hou generate more life rheu a service life eztension program or analysis, you add sand. Lots of airplanes means a big hourglass. The fleet planning of large fleets of combatant aircraft is really complicated. I wince when I see aircraft pricing but also know how badly that number actually represents a consummable tool that is going to be diacarded at the end of its life
Korea airline to furlough cabin crew without pay in May and June
Wow, what did I tell y’all? Hehe
> Fun bit of gossip from the halls of #AIX2026 today: Akbar al Baker was spotted on the floor and is rumored to be returning to the industry in a new leadership role.
https://bsky.app/profile/wandrme.paxex.aero/post/3mjia2lzets24
Airbus showcases its next-generation First Class concept for the A350 — an exclusive 2-passenger Master Suite, virtual windows and elevated ceilings
Conflicting reports
> WSJ: More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to two U.S. officials…
According to various media reports, several of the ships were Iranian.
Also multiple “sanctioned” Chinese ships.
Mar 31
Bloomberg
> The US is already churning out record amounts of jet fuel and has little capacity to increase exports despite President Donald Trump’s call for nations to buy more from American refiners as the Iran war squeezes supplies.
Fuel flows to the highest bidder. American will pay the global price
Mar 19
Bloomberg
> SpaceX’s role in NASA’s moon plans is growing, at Boeing’s expense.
NASA plans bigger SpaceX moon-mission role in blow to Boeing
> NASA is revising its moon-landing plans, reducing Boeing Co.’s role while elevating SpaceX’s Starship rocket to do the job of propelling astronauts to lunar orbit, people familiar with the matter said.
Those who focus only on what happened historically clearly missed what’s ahead of them.
Reuters:
> Last month, U.S. Space Force said it had reassigned its upcoming GPS launch to a SpaceX rocket for the fourth time, due to a glitch in the Vulcan rocket made by the Boeing and Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance.
“Analysts Estimate Boeing (BA) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for”
“This airplane builder is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.54 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -10.2%.
“Revenues are expected to be $21.88 billion, up 12.2% from the year-ago quarter.
“The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 17.29% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.”
“For Boeing, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company’s earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -111.79%”
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2900680/analysts-estimate-boeing-ba-to-report-a-decline-in-earnings-what-to-look-out-for
Didn’t Boeing have a quarter of “record” deliveries?
The more it delivers…
Revenue up + earnings down = over-discounting.
‘OpenAI admits AI hallucinations are mathematically inevitable, not just engineering flaws’:
Sep 18, 2025
“In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits.
OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, acknowledged in its own research that large language models will always produce hallucinations due to fundamental mathematical constraints that cannot be solved through better engineering, marking a significant admission from one of the AI industry’s leading companies.
The study, published on September 4 and led by OpenAI researchers Adam Tauman Kalai, Edwin Zhang, and Ofir Nachum alongside Georgia Tech’s Santosh S. Vempala, provided a comprehensive mathematical framework explaining why AI systems must generate plausible but false information even when trained on perfect data..”
https://www.computerworld.com/article/4059383/openai-admits-ai-hallucinations-are-mathematically-inevitable-not-just-engineering-flaws.html
article title “Spirit Airlines could liquidate as early as this week, sources say”
“Spirit Airlines could liquidate as early as this week, according to people familiar with the matter.
They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss matters that had not yet been made public.
The budget carrier has been struggling to regain its footing from its second bankruptcy in less than a year, but it now faces the added challenge of a spike in the price of fuel. Fuel is airlines’ biggest expense after labor.”
In the case of Sprit, the creditors can probably make more money re-deploying the aircraft.
CNBC:
JPMorgan: if fuel stays at about $4.60 a gallon this year, Spirit’s forecast operating margin for the 2026 fiscal year from negative 7 percent to negative 20 percent. Spirit could face another $360 million of costs, over a $337 million cash balance as of the end of last year
> Jet fuel reached an average of $4.88 a gallon in New York, Houston, Chicago and Los Angeles on April 2, according to Argus, up about 95% since the Iran war started on Feb. 28.
##########
Lufthansa to immediately remove CityLine regional jet
It’s crazy that RJs of 15 to 17-year old are said to be “nearing the end of their technical operational capability” while United is renovating the interiors of 20+ year-old RJs (reported to be around 23 year-old).
Who have the deep pocket to pick up the pieces: gates right and airport slots? The big four or others? United, Frontier, etc.
#########
April 8
@ByERussell:
“What drove consolidation was higher fuel prices back in 2009, ‘10 [and] ‘11… I anticipate higher fuel prices will cause much more significant structural reform than we’ve seen over this period,” Delta CEO Bastian says.
TL/DR: Delta expects a new round of airline consolidation.
AW:
> The decision to close CityLine is a clear message to the VC pilot union that Lufthansa will react to further strikes by reducing future growth opportunities not only in the short-haul but also in the long-haul network.
article titled “JetBlue founder Neeleman warns airline could face bankruptcy”
““JetBlue’s in a really tough spot. I think I told you this last week, but when Jamie Baker, who is an analyst for JP Morgan, came out with his estimates for all the airlines based on $4.50 fuel, it showed JetBlue losing $1.3 billion this year. That would probably put them into bankruptcy, I would assume,” Neeleman said.
He added that losses of that scale could push the airline’s debt to around $9 billion, up from current annual interest costs of more than $600 million to roughly $800 million.”
Meanwhile, Trump continues to assert that the US is immune to the oil shock caused by the Iran war…
👀 Why there aren’t any urgent action??
> Europe has about 6 weeks of jet fuel left…
The FAA has just released their updated ‘GNSS Interference Resource Guide’.
Flying through the Middle East and near other areas of conflict GPS, or more correctly GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System), jamming has become the bane of airline pilots’ life. Even worse than jamming is spoofing, where fake GNSS signals make receivers calculate a position that is different from their actual one.
Most people will understand that jamming affects the enroute navigation of an airplane, what fewer people appreciate is that radio approach aids like VOR and NDB are increasingly replaced by GNSS based Area Navigation (RNAV) approach procedures.
Such RNAV approaches typically depend on GNSS and provide more flexibility and efficiency. Sometimes RNAV enables airports to be served by instrument approaches that due to terrain cannot be served by traditional ground-based radio approach aids.
It is obvious that without a correct GNSS position data these procedures cannot be flown.
GNSS inputs are also used for a surprisingly long list of other aircraft systems, from CPDLC, ADS-B, Runway Safety Alerting Systems, TCAS, to onboard clocks, just to name a few.
On some airplanes, jamming or spoofing confuses the onboard systems sufficiently that systems will not recover after exiting the area where jamming or spoofing occurred and will need to be reset after landing. Until then systems that depend on GNSS may become unreliable or unusable.
Not a nice thought when you are on a flight from the Far East or Gulf to a destination in Western Europe and may not be able to depend on these systems.
Unintended consequences?
> Airline drops Los Angeles routes as rising fuel prices across California force major schedule cuts
No wonder Wilson was let go
Loss of over Rs 22,000 crore
Revenue of 77,000 crore
Turnaround amid of a turnaround?
Indian Express
> Singapore Airlines CEO meets Tata Group executives amid mounting losses, leadership vacuum at Air India
Bloomberg
> Air India racked up a wider-than-expected annual loss of more than $2.4 billion, prompting the company to seek financial aid from its shareholders, sources say.
Big orders were signed. What’s the solution now??
March 10
Bloomberg
> SpiceJet Chairman Says Oil Even at $90 Is ‘Unsustainable’
> Reports of crude oil for physical delivery to Asia now exceeding $200/bbl in some cases, per
@MarhelmData
Not with the usual suspects like RTX, BA? Why? Don’t tell me they are about to build more tanks!
Reuters:
Pentagon Approaches Automakers, Manufacturers to Boost Weapons Production, WSJ Reports
> Senior U.S. defense officials have held talks about producing weapons and other military supplies with top executives of companies including General Motors and Ford Motor, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the discussions.
Here in Europe, various auto manufacturing facilities are now engaged in volume production of drones of all types (air, land, sea).
Some are also producing heavy vehicles, such as armored personnel carriers and transport platforms for missile defense systems.
Car plants lend themselves perfectly to such activity, because of pre-existing ceiling cranes, reinforced floors, manufacturing robots, etc.
As car manufacturing in Europe declines, increasing numbers of facilities are being re-purposed for arms production.
The French have also re-purposed an ex- rail carriage manufacturing plant for such purposes.
interesting that China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) selected Broetje Automation Equipment (Shanghai) who is owned by Shanghai Electric Group into “2025 Open Competition Mechanism” intelligent manufacturing systems solution for “Reconfigurable Flexible Manufacturing Unit for Drilling and Riveting of Commercial Large Aircraft Fuselage Panels”
MIIT uses open competition mechanism to close the gap for depending on foreign suppliers
just a fyi
article titled “MIIT’s Industrial Digital Transformation Blueprint: How China Plans to Upgrade Manufacturing by 2026”
“For example, industry reports show that by 2025, more than 70 percent of large manufacturing firms in China will have substantially completed digital networking and built demonstrator “smart factories,” laying the groundwork for widespread adoption of data-driven operations.”
hmmm..how are US industries doing on their “smart factories”?
“US-Iran Talks to Span Past Summer As Oil Flows Remain Disrupted”
“A U.S.-Iran peace deal is not weeks away. Officials in the Gulf region are bracing for a timeline closer to six months.”
“Officials say a short extension of the ceasefire—around two weeks—is being considered to allow talks to continue. There is no indication that a broader agreement is close. The timeline under discussion is closer to six months, reflecting the scope of unresolved issues, including uranium enrichment, missile programs, and sanctions.
“Meanwhile, tanker traffic remains limited, and oil export volumes out of the Gulf are still well below normal levels. Some Iran-linked shipments have moved, but broader transit has not resumed.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Iran-Talks-to-Span-Past-Summer-As-Oil-Flows-Remain-Disrupted.html
AW Lufthansa Closes CityLine, Shifts Long-Haul Capacity
“The company said April 16 that it will accelerate the closure of its regional affiliate CityLine. The carrier, which had been planned to be shut down in 2027, will stop flying on April 18. Lufthansa is also retiring its four remaining Airbus A340-600s and two Boeing 747-400s and has confirmed its intention to allocate nine additional A350-900s to Discover Airlines.”
“CityLine’s fleet consists of 27 aircraft, including 18 Mitsubishi CRJ-900s that are approaching the end of their useful lives, five A319s, and four A321Fs the carrier flies on behalf of Lufthansa Cargo.”
Tangentially related news is that Edelweiss, part of the LH group, has canceled planned summer flights between Zurich and Seattle and Denver. They blame “geopolitical disruption, higher fuel prices and softer demand”.
https://newsroom.flyedelweiss.com/en/adjustments-to-edelweiss-long-haul-program/
Who has the last laugh?
AW
> VietJet Signs Lease For 10 C909s
BTW Vietnam’s top leader visited China and enjoyed a 2,400+ km, 10-hour high-speed train journey yesterday, which is roughly 1.5 times the north-south length of Vietnam.
It’s all about connectivity and developments.
DJT should also give HSR a try. 🙂
DAVID.
AN interesting counteepoint read is the book
FACTORY GIRLS. It describes the plight of mostly single women housed in Factory Dorms and working long hours on assembly lines for low pay. They come from all across the country bwcause as bad a life as that might be, its better than the poorer parts of agrarian china they came from. Theres virtually no mechanization mentioned in the book other than things like injection molding machines making mardi gras beads.
Might be time to catch on what’s happening today in China factories
China Unveils 100 Exemplary 5G Factory Projects to Drive Industrial Digital Transformation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJPczcOhadk
Also
“China’s manufacturing sector is undergoing a massive transformation, shifting from a labor-intensive model to a high-tech, AI-driven, and automated “digital factory” system. As of early 2026, 89.6% of major industrial firms in China have implemented digital upgrades. These facilities frequently utilize AI, 5G, and advanced robotics to create “dark factories” (fully automated, lights-out production).”
@David P
It’s almost funny but also depressing how detached from the world some can be.
Google summary:
> Xiaomi’s “dark factory” in Changping, Beijing, is a fully automated, 24/7, lights-out manufacturing facility that produces one smartphone every second without human intervention. Covering 81,000+ square meters, the plant uses AI, robots, and automated logistics (Hyper IMP) to self-correct issues and achieve 10 million phones in annual capacity.
A clip on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnylnmji47Q
MAGA Make Automation Great Again!
DHC dash-8 is more economical?
> Air Canada will suspend service to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport this summer as soaring jet fuel prices tied to the war in Iran force airlines to rein in less profitable routes.
#########
A reflection of the new reality?
From the “Gulf of America” in 2025 to the “Strait of Iran” in 2026
Oh… my guess is no liquidation this week!
TAC
> Spirit Airlines seeks U.S. government aid as oil spike threatens turnaround
Jetblue secures $500 million financing by offering aircraft as collateral
> Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
“open – closed – open – closed – open – ..”
Ever get the feeling you’re being played?
#Schrodinger’s Strait / #infoCon