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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair

March 28, 2026, © Leeham News: Oil prices skyrocketed this month with the beginning of the 2026 Iran War.

Yet, as sharply as prices spiked, they are not yet a record relative to inflation-adjusted prices since the 1973-1974 OPEC-inspired oil embargo and other regional or global events, an analysis by LNA shows.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil prices topped $100/bbl. Brent crude briefly hit $197/bbl on March 20. On March 27, Brent topped $100.

Some airlines worldwide hedged fuel against dramatic price hikes. Our detailed analysis is below.

There are dire predictions that the prices could reach $170 or even $200/bbl if the Iran War continues. Bombing of Iran by the United States and Israel began on Feb. 26. Shortly after, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz all but ceased. Twenty percent of the world’s oil transits through this bottleneck. Some countries, such as Japan and China, obtain more than 90% of their oil via the Strait.

More than 300 tankers are trapped. Some were attacked by Iran. Hundreds of ships of all kinds are blocked on both sides of the 35-mile-wide Strait.

Figure 1. Source: About 750 ships were trapped at the peak. Iran is allowing limited traffic through.  Seatrade-Maritime magazine.

The price of oil is being whipsawed as President Donald Trump mixes messages about the war's progress, sometimes within minutes. Sometimes the war is “won,” but more troops and ships are being sent to the region. Trump threatened to increase bombing, attack Iran’s power stations, invade an island, and then take it back. Allies are needed to reopen the Strait, and then they are not.