Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Open Forum, Week of March 30
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Mar 26
Bloomberg
> Qatar Airways is looking for ways to preserve cash amid the continued partial grounding of its fleet.
Meanwhile, over in the UAE:
“Emirates Pulls The Airbus A380 From 15 Major Routes: Here’s Why”
“This change plays a significant role in Emirates planning an average of 45 daily A380 departures from Dubai in April. Compared to what was available last week, its offering has fallen by a third. And it is 43% lower than the same spring month last year. As the situation remains volatile and that things could change quickly, the plan is certainly subject to adaption.”
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-pulls-the-airbus-a380-from-15-major-routes-heres-why/
There is no question now regarding the impact that this war will continue to have on ME3 whose business plans are all centered around significant growth in the future. That growth potential is now postponed indefinitely. Without that growth their need for new aircraft is much diminished.
As I stated last week, the fact that the 777 order book is overwhelming dominated by ME3 means the 777 is clearly in jeopardy. Boeing needs to find homes for the ME3 planes which are going to be cancelled or postponed.
The market that ME3 so effectively exploited with their intercontinental hubs will be hard to replace. Turkish is currently benefiting but how much capacity do they have at IST? Ethiopian could/should some benefit. Likewise for Air India . Singapore and KL offer hub growth opportunities too.
I wonder if Boeing can cover its commercial losses with a big increase in military armaments?
“I wonder if Boeing can cover its commercial losses with a big increase in military armaments?”
BDS hasn’t turned a (consistent) profit in quite a while…despite huge revenue.
According to today’s new article on LNA, the mess/chaos at BDS is just as bad as that at BCA.
Abalone.
Boeing actually has profitable weapons assembly lines that sometimes run flat out. They make the small diameter bombs as well as JDAM tail kits and Standard ARM. Even if they could milk 15% out of them, it would never be enough……
if delaying orders…seems like Boeing will be the loser
Chat GPT
“Boeing widebody orders (largest portion)
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
~80 aircraft
Mix of 787-9 and 787-10
Used for long-haul routes with high efficiency
Boeing 777X
~60 aircraft
Includes 777-8F freighters and 777-9 passenger jets
These are still awaiting full entry into service
Options (Boeing)
~50 additional widebodies
Likely split between more 787s and 777X variants
Airbus narrowbody order
Airbus A321neo
50 aircraft
Will replace older narrowbody capacity and expand regional routes
Total breakdown (firm orders)
Aircraft Type Quantity
Boeing 787 Dreamliner ~80
Boeing 777X (incl. freighters) ~60
Airbus A321neo 50
Total (firm) ~190–210”
I think, by Q3, BA/Ortberg & his gang may still be in denial, but by Q4 the latest, it would be pretty clear to anyone clear-eyed where the truth lies.
Things don’t look bright and the longer it drags on and the deeper hole it becomes, all ME3 (and even Indian carriers) are going to be affected.
When will BA start to “conserve” cash??
Chat GPT
Emirates (largest backlog among ME3)
Estimated backlog
~300–350+ aircraft on order
Qatar Airways (very large, recently expanded)
Estimated backlog
~200–230+ aircraft
Etihad Airways (smaller but fast-growing backlog)
Estimated backlog
~90–120 aircraft (depending on options/leases)
Combined Boeing backlog (ME3 total)
Airline Boeing backlog
Emirates ~245
Qatar Airways ~260
Etihad Airways ~45–50
Total (ME3) ~550+ aircraft
From bad to worse??
Note: I’m quoting a post on social media here 👇
> My war, your bill:
White House Pres Secretary Karoline Leavitt says President Donald Trump is “quite interested” in asking Arab nations to pay for the US-Iran war.
“It’s an idea that I know that he has, and something that I think you’ll hear more from him on,” she says.
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2038676685256569034
#########
Lawyers going thru the contract(s) to see how to get off the hook??
AAB comes out of “retirement” and be appointed special advisor of aircraft acceptance?
“Gulf Countries’ Frustration With the US Grows as War Wears On”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/gulf-countries-frustration-with-the-us-grows-as-war-wears-on
More woes for aircraft OEMs:
“Iran’s attacks on aluminum producers are sending ‘shockwaves’ through the metals market”
“Two of the Gulf’s largest aluminum producers came under fire from Iranian drones and missiles on Saturday.
“Aluminum rose to a four-year high on Monday as the attacks raised fears of a global supply shortage.
“Around 9% of global aluminum supply comes from the Gulf, and most firms have been unable to export the metal across the globe since the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/iran-attacks-aluminum-producers-shockwaves-market-metals.html
The attacks by Iran were tit-for-tat retaliation for US/Israeli attacks on 2 steel plants in Iran on Friday.
We used to have a very big aluminum smelting business here in the Pacific Northwest. There are dams on the Columbia which were speficically built to power the smelters. Those plants closed a few decades ago. Not much aluminum made anywhere in USA at this point. I guess USA gets most of its aluminum from Canada these days. Hope we don’t bomb them too.
I don’t know where Boeing vendors get aluminum.
US has the highest aluminum price. What a great way to re-industrialize America. According to research, for every job created in the steel industry because of the higher tariffs, seven jobs are lost downstream.
Trump imposed 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel, ‘a move one Canadian industry official warned would have “unrecoverable consequences.” ‘
The New Yorker:
> In the wake of Donald Trump’s steel tariffs, Mid-Continent Nail, the U.S.’s largest nail manufacturer, in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, lost half of its orders and had to let go of almost half its workforce.
> “It’s been devastating,” he told me. “Never did I think when Trump campaigned on ‘Make America Great Again’ we’d have to lay off all these people.”
China can take of themselves
Chat GPT
“China produces ~60% of the world’s primary aluminum, making it the dominant global supplier.
Key large smelting companies include:
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) – fully integrated (bauxite → alumina → smelting → alloys)
China Hongqiao Group – one of the world’s largest smelting operators (huge capacity, often hydropower-based)”
currently 4 US smelters including at the first global smelter site at Massena NY.
Theres also a large new plant being buil,t the Inola Smelter (Oklahoma): A joint venture between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Century Aluminium.
Recent closures include Hawesville Kentucky ( now being developed for data centres) and at New MadridDukeofurl Missouri idled because of high energy costs from adjacent coal power plant made it uneconomic against imports.
Canada was far away the main import origin being twice that of all other countries combined.
Of course aviation aluminium is specialised alloys so would be a different market , and the US firms Alcoa, Arconic and Kaiser are leading producers. Chalco is a leading supplier for the airframe makers
> Aviation aluminum – Top Importing Countries (Volumes and Shares)
United States: 70,000 metric tons (35% share) — The U.S. remains the largest importer
“Brent oil heads for record monthly surge, WTI settles above $100 for first time since 2022”
“International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery rose 0.19%, or 21 cents, to close at $112.78 per barrel. Brent has soared about 55% in March, a record for the contract dating back to its inception in 1988. The previous monthly record was a 46% gain in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.
“U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with May delivery advanced 3.25%, or $3.24, to settle at $102.88. U.S. crude oil has also gained about 53% in March and is on pace for its best month since May 2020. Monday also marked WTI’s first settle above $100 since July 2022.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/oil-price-today-wti-brent-yemen-houthis-israel-iran-war.html
A play of two acts:
Act 1
(2003)
> “Donald Rumsfeld began a trip to Europe Friday by telling troops any conflict with Iraq would probably be over within months. He made the prediction during an address to hundreds of U.S. military personnel inside a hangar at an air base near…Aviano.”
https://x.com/shashj/status/2038559595979849777
Act 2
WaPo: SCOOP: Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran (Mar 28)
> One person said that the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete.
Another put the potential timeline at “a couple of months.”
Note:
– Iran is much larger than Iraq, and Iran’s geography is much more mountainous.
– Saddam didn’t have a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
— The Iranian ground forces are much better armed and trained than Saddam’s.
– Unlike the Iraq war, the US is not being allowed to operate from bases in the region. One deployed aircraft carrier (Gerard R. Ford) has now been taken out of deployment and is in a maintenance port in Crete, Greece, after a 30-hour fire raged aboard.
The carrier was not allowed to port in Greece. It went further up the Adriatic Sea to Split for repairs. Italy today dismissed landings for US jets on their bases in Sicily.
The fact that Iran can ‘control’ the Strait of Hormuz by launching a small number of drones/missiles from anywhere in Iran means that no tankers can be insured for passage. Not to mention that ship captains and crews may not sail even if they are insured. So Iran is clearly in charge and has the upper hand in this war, even if they don’t have the overwhelming force potential that US holds. The US has very limited leverage in negotiations and needs the most highly skilled diplomats and political leaders to get out of this catastrophe.
As far as the airline business goes, I’m very interested in seeing how the demand for air travel into, out of and through the Persion Gulf changes once hostilities cease. I gotta think that demand for connecting traffic will be very slow to respond. I wonder if/how other regional hubs will develop?
Thomas.
Here is a drone development that makes it very difficult to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as short range quadcopters get longer legs,
https://dronexl.co/2025/10/26/russia-ring-wing-kometa-drones-ukraine-triples-range/
That’s it!
FT: UK to receive last tanker of jet fuel from Middle East this week
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HErziPwboAA6wVo?format=jpg&name=large
[> The UK has been relying on the Middle East for ~50% of its jet fuel supply]
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEnSYj_XQAEF-Uu?format=png&name=900×900
FT also reports: Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defence fund before Iran attack
OTOH:
“Cosco boxships make it through Strait of Hormuz after previous attempt failed”
“Two giant Chinese container ships have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after aborting an attempt last week, according to ship-tracking sites.
“The 18,980-teu ships CSCL Arctic Ocean and CSCL Indian Ocean (both built 2015) transited the strait on Monday morning, the first confirmed crossing by a major container carrier since the start of the war, according to MarineTraffic.”
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/cosco-boxships-make-it-through-strait-of-hormuz-after-previous-attempt-failed/2-1-1968028
Ships from Iran are transiting as usual, and heading to China.
Selected ships from Pakistan, India and Thailand have also been allowed to pass, subject to certain conditions.
> United: Jet fuel prices have more than doubled in three weeks, if continues, annual fuel bill would exceed $11 billion (more than double its best-ever annual profit)
> South Korea’s aviation sector is in crisis mode. Korean Air, the country’s largest airline, joins Asiana Airlines & T’way Air in declaring emergency management mode, as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran triggers a severe jet fuel shortage and price spike
Not only the ME3!
> Mohamed El-Erian, told CNBC: “… the war is triggering both a “price shock” and a “demand shock,” warning of a chain reaction from “energy shock” to “inflation shock” to “demand destruction,” with Asia already fearing “actual physical shortages,” raising the risk of financial instability if the conflict continues.”
2008 redux?
Lufthansa is planing to take out about 40 jets of daily business.
https://www.aero.de/news-52235/Lufthansa-prueft-Stilllegung-von-bis-zu-40-Flugzeugen.html (German)
> Lufthansa is preparing for lower demand for air travel – also through higher ticket prices. “The consequences are greater than we expected,” Spohr told the Handelsblatt. “Fewer people will travel.”
When 10-15% of the global oil production is offline, there has to be a cut in corresponding demand to balance out.
AW
China’s Airlines Expect 33 C919 Deliveries In 2026
“Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines are expecting a combined 33 Comac C919 deliveries in 2026, which would be a significant increase on the 15 aircraft the state-owned carriers received in 2025”
In that case, I think we can assume that certification of the CJ-1000A will soon be announced.
COMAC wouldn’t put out these figures based purely on LEAP-1Cs, with attendant supply continuity risk due to geopolitical trickstering. Remember that China is maintaining its chokehold on Rare Earths, much to the frustration of the US.
interesting point on CJ1000 engine Just a fyi, (going back to 2017) the monthly rate was 4 a month, no new addition to Comac C919 facility has been made thou it was approved 2 years ago Google maps 2026 does not show any new FAL buildings on Comac Shanghai Pudong campus
Very detailed article:
“How Middle East conflict is disrupting aviation parts and MRO flows”
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to affect millions of people, disrupting daily life and creating uncertainty that extends far beyond any single sector. Within aviation, these conditions are reshaping the global parts and logistics ecosystem, constraining supply chain flows, increasing transit complexity, accelerating asset utilization, and placing sustained pressure on MRO networks.
“This combined effect has shifted routine procurement and logistics processes into highly dynamic, risk-sensitive operations requiring continuous coordination across suppliers, operators, and maintenance providers.”
===
“Following drone and missile incidents in the UAE and Qatar, large portions of regional airspace across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Syria are closed, while surrounding areas including Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are operating under varying degrees of restriction, conditional access, or contingency routing. Even where airspace remains technically open, operations are tightly controlled, with limited entry and exit points, reduced scheduling flexibility, and increased reliance on approved corridors.
“As a result, Europe Asia traffic is primarily concentrated into two constrained routing strategies. The southern routing via Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Oman provides the most viable continuous path but introduces additional distance, extended block times, higher fuel consumption, and exposure to navigation interference. The northern routing via the Caucasus and Afghanistan introduces its own limitations, including complex coordination requirements and limited air traffic services in certain segments, requiring contingency procedures and careful flight planning.
“Both routing options add several hundred miles compared to standard Gulf routings, directly increasing flight time and operating cost across both passenger and cargo networks. In parallel, major airlines have reduced or suspended services to key regional destinations, leading to tens of thousands canceled flights.”
“As a result, established trade lanes for aviation components have been forced to reroute through longer and less efficient corridors, introducing delays and variability into what was previously a highly optimized network.”
===
“The spike in fuel costs is also influencing maintenance decisions. Airlines are deferring non-critical shop visits to preserve liquidity, extending time on wing for engines and components. While this helps with short-term cash flow, as fuel becomes more expensive, even small declines in efficiency translate into disproportionately higher operating costs.
“Rerouted flight paths adds to the challenge. Adding to two hours on long haul sectors, increases fuel burn by around 20% while paying 80–100% more per gallon. The exposure is particularly intense for unhedged carriers, who must pay full spot prices after exiting hedging strategies.”
===
“On the cargo side, the Europe–Asia corridor accounted for 21.5% of global air freight in 2025, making it the largest intercontinental trade lane in aviation logistics, with the Middle East serving as a central transshipment hub within this network. For instance, Dubai International Airport handled over 1 million tons of cargo in the first half of 2025, while Hamad International Airport serves as a key base for Qatar Airways Cargo, operating a freighter fleet of 30 Boeing 777Fs contributing more than 7,000 tons of daily global cargo capacity.
“The disruption of operations across these hubs has had an immediate impact on global cargo efficiency and aircraft parts availability. By mid-March, global air cargo capacity had contracted by approximately 22%, while freight prices increased up to 4 times compared to pre conflict levels, weakening the reliability of time-sensitive logistics.
“Reduced capacity has also intensified competition for belly space and freighter lift, particularly on long-haul intercontinental routes. For aviation parts suppliers and distributors, this has made shipment consolidation, prioritization of high-value components, and forward positioning of inventory essential to maintaining service levels. Lower-priority or fragmented shipments are increasingly exposed to delays or rerouting, further extending lead times across the supply chain.”
===
“Shipments that were previously predictable, high-frequency, and standardized now require more complex routing, additional handling points, multiple customs interfaces, expanded documentation, and closer coordination across logistics providers, creating a cascading effect throughout the network. Transit times for aviation parts have increased by an estimated 20–40%, directly impacting time-critical shipments such as engine rotables, LLPs, and avionics components, where even short delays can lead to grounded aircraft, extended AOG events or deferred maintenance.
“As a result, logistics performance is no longer determined solely by distance or demand, but by access to viable air corridors, available cargo capacity, and the ability to navigate a constrained and rapidly evolving operating environment.”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/middle-east-conflict-aviation-parts-mro-supply-chain
> If reports that Trump is planning to walk away from the war without reopening the strait of Hormuz are right, that supports my prediction that Iran may succeed in establishing a tolling system there, making it richer and more powerful after the war
After the JCPOA agreement was agreed, Iran being careful, placed aircraft orders with both AB and BA, but I guess this time is different!!
Its not only oil……
Tungsten Sulphur and Helium are seeiously disrupted
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/commodities-price-of-tungsten-sulfur-and-helium.html?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=intl&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQPNDA5OTYyNjIzMDg1NjA5AAEeuWGwRaigItSCv49UkHsC0FtgYMRG55mZ3x3yGbdWFEU9aNmb334C8gX3IO8_aem_QDn5N1A45FKDt3Bz0azp-w
How will the market react tomorrow?? Oil shoots up? Interest rates jump? How soon will the economy enter recession? Where is BA/Ortberg’s plan B? Increase production rates?
“Philippine Airlines Chief Says Nation May Need to Ration Fuel”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/philippine-airlines-chief-says-nation-may-need-to-ration-fuel
Last year Trump made the middle east princes order hundreds of Boeing 777, 787 and 737 aircraft.
https://www.aviacionline.com/boeing-ceo-links-recent-aircraft-orders-to-trumps-trade-strategy
Now Trump is plowing their back yards, having their infrastructure bombed by Iran, cheered up by Netanyahu (the 40k kids & wives Gaza, West Bank settler enabler, taking Beirut guy) instead of coordinating with them.
I guess everything will be just fine with the Boeing orders.
Any Western ruler with a similar track record would have been removed by parliament way back. But not Trump. That worries the world.
Boeing 737 fuselage rail deliveries from Spirit appear to slow in March
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/boeing-737-fuselage-rail-deliveries-spirit-aerosystems
Despite all that inventory sitting outdoors at Spirit?
Sounds like a line capacity issue in WA.
Don’t forget the creative/flexible definition of “stabilized” used at BA 😉
Ironic to hear you 2 debating over 737 deliveries, when your competitor delivers a scant 2 more 320 series aircraft last month.
Well !!!!
It’s obviously more than a PRATT issue…
But hey, it keeps investors happy , about meeting those lofty year- end delivery targets.
☺️
Let’s see when AB finally swallows their pride and comes to terms that 870 ain’t happening this year.
AB doesn’t have to cover $700M per quarter in debt servicing costs — whereas BA does.
We know that 38 p/m on the bread-and-butter MAX line simply isn’t enough to allow BCA to break even.
On the other hand, even last year’s meager Q1 deliveries yielded Airbus Commercial Aircraft an EBIT of €494M.
BA is drowning in debt — it desperately needs higher line rates just to attain flat gross profit…and needs to go higher again to eke out a meager net profit.
any number on completed 737 fuselages sitting outside Spirit Wichita as of today?
ABALONE.
Thanks for the comments on the stabilized production numbers. 2.03 aircraft per MDAY. A slowing of fuselages in March looks to dovetails with the reduction in thruput in may due to the somewhat random distriburion of MDAYS in each month. Note that there is a drop of 4 aircraft betwewn April and May, so throttling the shipments makes sense. Heres the data based on a production rate of 42 a month…
If the rate is 42,
The annual rate is 504
There are 260 weekdays in a year
There are 12 holidays in 2026
260-12 = 248 Mdays in 2026
Nominal production is 2.03 airplanes per Mday at a rate of 42 a month.
Jan has 21 Mdays 42.63
Feb has 20 Mdays. 40.06
Mar has 22 Mdays 44.26
Apr has 22 Mdays 44.26
May has 20 Mdays 40.06
Jun has 22 Mdays 44.26
Jul has 22 Mdays 44.26
Aug has 21 Mdays 42.63
Sep has 21 Mdays 42.63
Oct has 22 Mdays 44.26
Nov has 19 Mdays 39.14
Dec has 17 Mdays 34.51
Remember that Rate42 per is an average produced by building 2.02 aircraft per mday as measured at the completion of the production step of the manufacturing process and is drivem by the MRP process which provides the only data not affected by the differences in the monthly callendar day count or MDAY distribution The article you quote lacks understanding of these nuances
Major Gulf carriers more or less “Beached”.
LH is reducing VLA traffic.
( i.e. just like during Covid fleets are “beheaded” for the time.)
Influence on 777X certification pressure?
The 777-9 is 30 tons heavier than the A350-1000, and the 777-9 has more seats to fill to reach a given load factor.
In times of high fuel prices and dwindling passenger demand, those are not encouraging statistics for BA.
Nonsense…
Singling out one aircraft type is Total rubbish..
It will affect all carriers and aircraft types..
Why BA chose to go down the (more expensive) route of composite fuselage for the 787? 🤣
high prices and shrinking demand will
hit the large frames first.
( I gave the appropriate example from a couple years back )
777x is still not certified.
Will the upcoming situation reduce pressure on Boeing ( my guess yes.) Will Boeing’s resolution to certify the frame weaken? open afaics. discussion!?
“Trump’s Iran timeline may not be short enough to avoid oil demand destruction”
“In the wake of Trump’s 19-minute speech on Wednesday, oil prices soared as analysts noted U.S. troops and aircraft continued to arrive in the Middle East, casting doubt over Trump’s insistence the conflict is drawing to a close.
“Global benchmark Brent crude was last seen trading more than 6.5% higher at around $107.79 per barrel around 11:00 a.m. in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil added around 6% to settle at just over $106 a barrel.”
“There are fears that a prolonged conflict could lead to demand destruction — a sustained drop in demand brought on by high prices or limited supply. The decline in demand can push consumers to reduce their consumption of specific goods, like gasoline, or seek out alternatives, like electric or more fuel-efficient vehicles.
““If Middle East oil exports were to remain low for longer, we see potential for significant price-driven reductions in demand for gasoline and diesel in the largest markets with flexible prices (e.g. US) and emerging markets where prices have risen sharply and fuel demand is likely relatively price-sensitive (e.g. South Africa, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam),” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday.
““Pockets of clearer demand destruction have emerged in certain markets, including in aviation and Asian petrochemical industries,” they added. ”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/oil-demand-destruction-trump-energy-price-gasoline-ration-iran.html
In Korea:
> Some carriers have already begun cutting operations. Jin Air, Air Busan, Air Seoul and Air Premia are reducing their flight schedules from April, scaling back less profitable routes to minimize expenses.
The emergency management trend could expand further if the conflict continues, industry sources said.
“Even airlines that haven’t officially declared emergency management are already cutting spending and adjusting investments,” an industry insider said. “If high oil prices and a strong dollar persist at the same time, a deterioration in profitability across the industry will be inevitable.”
> Ryanair CEO issues warning over jet fuel shortages
> Macron: ‘Unrealistic’ idea to force open Strait of Hormuz would ‘take forever’
Emmanuel Macron has dismissed the idea of opening the Strait of Hormuz by force as an unrealistic and never-ending operation.
I wonder if the Trump Administration thought that Iran would be like Venezuela and once the “head guy” was out of the way, the remaining leaders would acquiesce and become US puppets allowing US oil companies to “take over”. Trump cannot take over Hormuz so he’s thinking of just walking away from it. That may happen, or if we are very lucky, “something” will happen to allow the war to be settled. Diplomacy may not be that “something”, because US doesn’t have much diplomacy left and Iran is not currently predisposed to settling.
Either way, oil prices will remain high and supply constrained for months/years. The stress to airlines will cause some to falter and possible collapse. Other industries will have similar fates. It’s really quite astounding how cutting off 20% of the world’s oil is having such an effect. Of course, some regions are losing much more than 20% .
“Turbulence ahead: Lufthansa and Ryanair CEOs voice concern over rising fuel costs”
“German airline group Lufthansa and Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair are preparing contingency plans amid surging jet fuel prices.
“The Lufthansa Group is considering grounding around 5% of its fleet in response to the economic shockwaves triggered by the Iran conflict, according to a report in Handelsblatt.”
“Lufthansa is not alone in feeling the strain. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has also voiced his concerns about the impact of the jet fuel shortage on the UK’s aviation sector.
“In an interview with Sky News, O’Leary warned of likely flight cancellations this summer, noting that the UK is more exposed to the crisis than other countries because it relies on fuel from the Middle East.”
https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/lufthansa-and-ryanair-voice-concern-over-rising-jet-fuel-costs/
Physical oil vs. paper oil future delivery:
> As some of you are asking: Brent (physical) trading prompt delivery: >$125 a barrel…
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2039688849484386337
Dated Brent is now at $141 a barrel
> The global benchmark for physical crude, dated Brent, has surged to $141 per barrel—the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis—signaling severe disruption in real-world supply, Bloomberg’s energy analyst reports.
➤ This is the price buyers are paying for immediate delivery, not the paper contracts.
➤ In contrast, June Brent futures are trading around $108, far lower but still up 7% today.
WTI was trading today at a premium to Brent — increasing the “pain at the pump” for US consumers.
Average US fuel prices today:
Gasoline (regular): $4.081 p/g
Diesel: $5.507 p/g
> US aviation safety under scrutiny – what the data really shows
The reoccurrence of similar incidents and fatal accidents suggests procedures to mitigate such events are not working
https://www.airlineratings.com/articles/us-aviation-safety-under-scrutiny–what-the-data-really-shows
“When could jet fuel supply run low for the US?”
“According to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, the average price of jet fuel has jumped from $2.50 per gallon on Feb. 27, near the start of the conflict, to $4.64 per gallon as of Wednesday.”
“Amid concerns of a looming shortage, airlines in the U.S. are looking to offset the rising fuel prices. On Monday, JetBlue announced it was raising baggage fees by as much as $9, pointing to “rising operation costs.””
“United Airlines has also said it would scale back service in some areas, and Delta and American Airlines have said they would pass costs on to consumers, expecting to add $400 million in costs just for fuel.
” ** Airlines have warned the supply could run out in a matter of weeks, contrary to a social media post from President Donald Trump on Tuesday, in which he said the U.S. had “plenty” of jet fuel compared to other countries facing disruptions. ** “
Across the pond
> Nigel Farage says Keir Starmer was “right” not to join the conflict and that he’s sure Trump won’t abandon Hormuz. “I wouldn’t think for a minute that the Americans would walk away from that.”
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says of Trump and Hormuz: “If you break it, you own it. He should not be abandoning a mess that he’s made.”
Originally both Farage and Badenoch appeared to back the war
> Bloomberg: Europe’s diesel futures benchmark hit the highest level since 2022. Futures traded as high as $1,493.25 a ton, more than $200 a barrel, rising as much as 9.4% in London.
Diesel fuel is presently $7.29 per gallon here on the central coast of California.
I misspoke: Diesel is now $7.99 per gallon here.
I think it has becoming increasingly obvious that both Farage and Badenoch were both trying to be point-scoring opportunists, and have been exposed (or should that be “confirmed”?) as the idiots they are, where Starmer has been shown to be right in his refusal to involve Britain in a war that Trump was responsible for and which he now needs to somehow end.
Just to be clear, I’m quoting a thread by this account: https://bsky.app/profile/jthutt.bsky.social
Hopefully it’s all legit. Sigh.
[Background: from another post being quoted
> right now the astronauts are calling houston because the computer on the spaceship is running two instances of microsoft outlook and they can’t figure out why. nasa is about to remote into the computer
End]
> Let’s talk about how this works and why we have older devices. When I started doing cabin integration back in 2017, we actually had a 2020 launch date. We bought the tablets the crew used for Artemis II back then. To not spend as much, we limited our choice to devices that were in the ISS catalog.
By using a device ISS was using, we would save money on certifying the hardware. Every piece of equipment flown has to go through a series of testing. That testing takes time and money. The operations software on the tablet was developed in Windows for ISS, so we needed a windows tablet.
Launch in 2020 becomes 2022, then 2024, and finally 2026, and we knew that these devices would be obsolete by the time we flew. But we already had them in hand. They were already tested. Software already developed for that platform. You make the decision that it’s good enough.
The other challenge for modern devices and software is that everything is looking for an internet connection. While the ISS sits in low Earth Orbit and we were able to setup a viable internet connection, Orion will be on the deep space network, which has bandwidth limitations.
We have to prioritize what goes up and down from a data perspective because there’s not enough room in the intertubes to get down all the telemetry, video, audio, and other to maintain a connection.
“Retired KC-135 moved from ‘Boneyard’ storage to main USAF tanker base”
“The move comes after the loss of multiple KC-135 aerial refuellers as part of the ongoing air war against Iran.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/archive/2026/04/retired-kc-135-moved-from-boneyard-storage-to-main-usaf-tanker-base/
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Weren’t we told that the KC-46As already delivered to the USAF were “mission-capable”…?
And, yet, in the Iran war, deployed KC-135s outnumber KC-46As by 98-to-18…
“According to tracking information, 17 KC-46A “Pegasus” and 62 KC-135 “Stratotanker” aircraft have been observed near the operational zone, at CENTCOM-controlled airfields, and at Diego Garcia Air Base in the Chagos Archipelago. More than 40 of these tankers are stationed at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, reflecting the close coordination between US and Israeli forces. An additional 36 KC-135s and one KC-46A are positioned at bases in southern Europe and the Mediterranean, likely supporting aircraft transiting from the United Kingdom.”
https://en.yenisafak.com/world/over-160-us-tanker-aircraft-deployed-in-campaign-against-iran-3715820
Yeah, I’ve been wondering why those KC-46As weren’t
being further utilized..
Real-world mission-capable rate vs. PR hype.
No wonder the USAF announced last month that it’s refusing new KC-46A deliveries until the plane’s gremlins are sorted out.
In the meantime, old junk from the boneyard is being dusted off and forced back into action.
Abalone.
We will see more 135s coming out of DM storage as we have so far lost 2 135s destroyed and 6 damaged to depot. A 135 stored at DM is far from junk, they are ready for service and have available fatigue life hours remaining. They are coming back into service as all the 135 attrition airframes were consumed years ago and the tanking plan needs boom count. DM saves us a lot of money keeping stored aircraft ready for return to service. It’s just good fleet planning. If you get the chance, take the tour.
Vincent.
The bigger KC46s are tasked with support of transport lift refueling. The smaller 135s take on the tac air support where the offload is smaller and more frequent. This means the boom count matters as lots of aircraft need lots of booms and buckets.
You see fewer 46s in theater as the airlifter refueling requirements are lower in theater and the 135s were rotated off the airlifter siortees across the pond supporting the European missions as well as the weapons lift to Poland.
When you look at what gets gassed where, their lower numbers in the gulf make sense.
ABALONE.
It makes sense to use more 135s than 46s. First, there are more of them available. Second, since both aircraft are fat dumb and happy targets orbiting in tanker tracks, you try to use up the airframes by putting the fatigue hours into the place it hurts you the least. Running these hours onto the 135 fleet with combat missions makes more sense than setting them aside and usinng kc46 fatigue hours instead. You are going to replace the 135s soon so lets get all tbe flying we can out of them. Flying 46s and taking usable 135 fatige hours to the scrap pile when the 135s go away ia just stupid. The other thing ro remember is our role in Europe and Nato. The USA has a significant ongoing operational lift requirement in support of europe and placing newer airframes there spares you from wartime attrition losses to newer lift. Consuming 46 attrition airframes this early in the 46s life isnt smart business. This is all about smart warplanning. AlSO Bringing a 135 out of DM to replace a combat loss is SOP as there are fatigue hours available to be used up and gettingnthebtime out of the airframe bwfore parting it out is excellent long term fleet managememt. The aircraft are stored there dor just this reason. They alao reactivated a B52 from DM to cover an attrition loss a short time ago. Thats DMs job.
Where’s the boneyard for the E-3G??
“The global oil crisis is turning into an everything crisis”
“The disruption has not only sent fuel prices soaring, but has squeezed supplies of petrochemicals needed to make everyday items like shoes, clothing and plastic bags.
“That strain is now spreading into every corner of the consumer market as prices rise for materials like plastic, rubber and polyester. The impact is so far most evident in Asia, which accounts for more than half of the world’s manufacturing and is heavily reliant on imports for oil and other commodities.”
“In South Korea, where people have been panic-buying trash bags, the government has encouraged event organizers to minimize use of disposable items. Taiwan has started a hotline for manufacturers that have run out of plastic, while its rice farmers told local media they may hike prices because they can’t get vacuum-sealed bags.
“In Japan, the oil crisis has sparked fears that patients with chronic kidney failure won’t be able to get treatment due to a lack of plastic medical tubes used in hemodialysis. Malaysian glove manufacturers say a dearth of a petroleum byproduct needed to make rubber latex is threatening global supplies of medical gloves.”
““This spills into everything very, very quickly: beer, noodles, chips, toys, cosmetics,” said Dan Martin, co-head of business intelligence at Dezan Shira & Associates, an advisory firm that helps international businesses expand in Asia.”
“That’s because plastic caps, crates, snack bags and containers are becoming more difficult to procure. Petroleum derivatives are also needed to make adhesives for footwear and furniture, industrial lubricants for machinery and solvents for paints and cleaning processes, Martin added.”
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/04/business/global-oil-crisis-shortage-everything-intl-hnk-dst
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Only a matter of time before this starts to affect suppliers of aircraft cabin fittings and seats.
Of particular note: carbon composite is also made from petroleum-based precursors.
So, we’re heading into another CoViD-style supply chain shock — except that this one will be even worse.