Andy Shankland, senior vice president of leasing markets for Airbus, and Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing, were next up at the ISTAT annual meeting in San Diego today.
The following is a synopsis and paraphrasing of their presentations and free-wheeling discussion.
AS: In service passenger aircraft, all ages, all series, there are now 5413 vs 5394 A320s vs 737s, with the A320 in-service than the 737 for the first time.
RT: You can all look at the data and look at the math but have a different perspective. The market is good and it is getting better. Passenger traffic has exceeded capacity, driving increasing production rates.
Boeing now has 34 customers, including 10 lessors, for 1,807 737 MAXes, though many are unidentified.
We now have a widebody coverage that seamlessly covers 220-500 seat coverage.
AS: The industry needs stable fuel prices, regardless of the price, so airlines can deal with it, he says, citing an unidentified executive of a US airlines.
If interest rates go back to normal levels, this means $2 or $3 per seat on an A320.
RT: The next step in single aisle technology is difficult. The biggest challenge to us was not technology, it was production system.
AS: responds that “it’s fair to say the 737 MAX was launched in Toulouse, bring a hearty laugh from the audience.
Question: A319neo and 737-7 haven’t sold well-is this just a blocking action to keep people in the family?
AS: No question A319 will be third in the family but it has a role to play. “We’re totally committed to the A319neo.”
RT: We’re seeing some strengthening in lease rates for the A319 and 737-700, and with stability oil prices, we’ll see some more orders, but like Airbus, the smallest member will be third in the family.
Concerning the 757 replacement: We’re at a place where we have more questions than answers, says Tinseth. Shankland maintains that the A321neo is the 757 replacement.
Tinseth believes there is a large market for the 787-8 going forward, opening up a potential of ~450 markets in the world, such as London-Austin (TX). “I believe 787-9 will put pressure on the A330-300.”
Shankland thinks that in the long0-term the 787-8 is “just a little bit small.”
Shankland uses Boeing’s term to explain that Airbus “brackets” the 777-9 with the A350-1000 and the A380.
Tinseth continues to defend the 747-8I, with the VLA market “failing,” and calls the A380 is a “one-trick pony” with “one customer” [Emirates]. Tinseth calls the VLA sector a cargo market now.