Aug. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s the kind of leak that drives a company crazy. Aviation Week obtained an internal Boeing sales target list that is well below a book:bill of 1:1 this year. The math shows that Boeing would have a book:bill of just 0.72:1.
Even this may be optimistic.
The sales target data, obtained by Guy Norris, indicates Boeing had a target of 88 777 sales and 88 787 sales this year.
The list does not distinguish between 777 Classics and 777Xs. So far this year, Boeing booked just eight 777 Classic orders.
It’s booked 19 787 orders.
The target list show 14 orders for the 747-8. Four already have been booked.
The order figures above are through August 16. This sales target list is a few months old and may have changed since then.
Boeing’s guidance has been 1:1.
According to the Norris article, Boeing spokesman Doug Alder says there are several sales target lists. Even so, this months-old list illustrates just how difficult this year is likely to be for Boeing.
The dearth of orders for the 777 (particularly the Classic) and 787 suggest the task is even more difficult than the targets.
The only major 777 Classic campaign known to outsiders is the long-running one with Turkish Airlines. The attempted military coup of the government and resignation of the Turkish Airlines CFO, who authorities claimed was a suspect in the coup (which he denies), causes upheaval in any equipment campaign here.
But this deal was for far fewer than the 80 more airplanes that represent the gap between the eight sold this year and the target of 88.
A goal of 88 sales suggests Boeing was hoping for 30-40 777Xs. It had a target for 40-50 Classic sales this year.
The long-awaited wide-body order from Emirates Airlines could be the principal 787 sales target in the AvWeek chart. This campaign, pitting the Airbus A350-900 against the 787-9/10, is for a reported 70 aircraft. It’s supposed to be decided by the end of this year. If Boeing wins this deal, the sales target for the 787 is met. If not, it’s unlikely the target will be met.
Boeing’s target list, according to Norris, is 14 sales this year. This may well have been met. There were already four sales on the books, for AirBridgeCargo. ABC firmed up an agreement for up to 20 747-8Fs, announced at the Farnborough Air Show. Neither Boeing nor ABC detailed how many of these 20 were firm orders or options, but they did say four were already announced. It might be that the other 10 on the target list are those from ABC.
Airbus is challenged on hitting a 1:1 book:bill this year, too.
It’s production/delivery rate is about 100 airplanes fewer than Boeing’s this year, or fewer than 650. But officials already said the goal of meeting this figure is challenging.
Wide-body sales are especially challenging this year. Like Boeing, Airbus hopes to win the Emirates order. This would bolster its 2:1 lead YTD of wide-body sales over Boeing.
With 4 ½ months left in the year, the race for orders is anything but over. Boeing leads Airbus slightly in total net orders YTD, but Airbus announced more orders than Boeing with contracts to be firmed up.
The Emirates order is the big prize this year—if it comes. It originally was supposed to happen last year.