E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec

Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham Co., Nashville– Embraer is seeing interest from North American airlines in the E195-E2 despite a requirement that this would have to be operated by US mainline pilots or carriers without restrictions under some labor contract Scope Clauses, a top marketing official said yesterday.


 

Charlie Hills, VP of Sales and Marketing and based at the company’s US headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, declined to name names of these airlines expressing interest in the E195-E2.

The remarks were made at the annual Regional Airlines Assoc. conference in Nashville.

But it is known that low-cost carriers Spirit Air, Frontier Airlines and even Southwest Airlines have looked at the airplane. None of these has a Scope Clause in labor contracts.

Legacy carrier United Airlines also has reviewed the airplane, but its level of interest is hard to gauge. It’s restricted by Scope by size, weight, seat count and the number of airplanes it can fly through its regional partners, so the E2 would have to fly mainline. Pilot wages would be a make-or-break issue.

The first E195-E2 will be delivered Sept. 12 to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.

E195-E2 will drive demand

Hill, whose territory is North American, nevertheless sees the E195-E2 as driving global demand for the family of jets.

The E175-E2, a plane targeted for the Scope-restricted US market, may have sales in Europe and Asia, he said. Until this E2 becomes Scope-compliant, the E175-E1 will be built and sold into the US.

“There are a lot of opportunities,” he said. Embraer will leverage its incumbency and commonality to ward off new entrant Mitsubishi and the M100 SpaceJet. MITAC is a new entrant and will find it a challenge to penetrate the market, he said.

Only hours later, MITAC announced an MOU for up to 100 M100s with Mesa Airlines, an E175-E1 operator.

“It’s nice having Bombardier out of the game,” Hill said. Bombardier agreed to sell the CRJ program to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which is mainly interested in the global services component. Bombardier said it will cease production of the CRJ next year.

The E190-E2, which entered service in 2018, won’t be the “door-opener,” he said. This falls to the E195-E2.

Hill predicted the E195-E2 will be the best seller of the E2 family.

26 Comments on “E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec

  1. Why would anyone want the E2 vs the 220? I guess it must be cheaper to buy?

    • It’s a bit lighter (244.5 kg/Y seat vs 265 kg/seat for the A220-100) and has a 10% smaller wing, it could be a little cheaper to operate (but the A220 has more range). Including capital cost, I imagine the competition between Airbus and Boeing will level the field, so they should share the market. Historically, the aircraft with a bit more range has an advantage over the one a little cheaper, but cheaper is good too.

    • If an airline needs less seats, less payload, less range, less spacious cabin – a less capable aircraft but cheaper, especially, I assume, after Boeing overtake – will choose E2.

      If an airline needs more capable and versatile aircraft, which in future will be possibly stretched to even a bigger one – will choose A220, even if it’s a bit more expensive.

      • the E195-E2 competes with the A220-100. The A220-300 competitor is the 737-7.

        • Rather see 195-E2 is in between A220-100 and A220-300.

          And A220-300 is sub-B737-7 in pax capacity.

  2. Boeing’s weight could influence the scope clauses to include the E175-E2

    • I don’t see the mechanism by which that would happen.

      Scope clauses are set by negotiation between major airline pilot unions and the major airline concerned. The agenda for pilot unions at the moment is to recover all of what they believe they gave up in the dark days after 9/11. That potentially includes making scope clauses more restrictive. To make them looser will require the unions get something substantial in return. How would Boeing contribute to that?

      • I agree. There is the chance that the Unions will push their contract ‘scope’ to include the 76 seater type regional jets.

        This method eliminates the issue for good and improves the pilot shortage in one swoop.

  3. I assume that scope-clauses can not be simply loosen just to accommodate only 175-E2, for legal anticompeticion reasons they will have to open them more to accommodate other manufacturers aircrafts.

    • The Mitsubishi spacejet m100 will be scope compatible. Opening it to the e2-175 will open up some competition.

      • SpaceJet 100 is already scope-clauses compatible. So adding only Embraer will be competicion suspected.

        Imo shall be allowed E175-E2, Comac ARJ21 and even derated A220-100 – it would bring to the market new generation of jets – modern and efficient.

        • I think what he really meant was the M90. Just as the E175 it became irrelevant to the US market due to current scope clause.

          • The M90 Mtow is close to 95,000 lb, well above the 86,000lb of Scope and that of the M100. It’s a few rows longer as well.

  4. you state that pilot wages are make or break for these planes.

    just how big is the difference in salary between a senior regional pilot and a junior mainline pilot?

    what I see online suggests ~$70k for an experienced regional pilot (the kind of guy who would fly the top of the regional’s fleet) vs $85k for a junior mainline pilot (the kind of guy who would fly the bottom of the mainline fleet).

    is $30k a year (2 pilots), equivalent to $7.50 an hour per pilot really enough to make or break a particular plane? that seem ridiculous.

    or are the numbers for Pilot salary not including the “Union Package”, but just reflective of the take home pay, with Regional pilots getting nothing but a paycheck and Mainline pilots getting an enormous benefits package?

    • Hello Bilbo,

      Regarding: “just how big is the difference in salary between a senior regional pilot and a junior mainline pilot?”

      See below for Delta mainline B717 pay rates and Delta Regional partner Skywest CRJ900 pay rates, according to the pay scales posted for each airline at airline pilot central.com (see the the links at the end of this post).

      B717 – Delta Mainline
      Delta Mainline B717 Captain: $235 (Year 1) to $256 per flight hour (Year 12).
      Delta Mainline B717 Co-Pilot: $92 (Year 1) to $175 per flight hour (Year 12).

      According to airlinepilotcentral.com, Delta has a guarantee of a minimum of 65 flight hours per month, so minimum annual pay for a first year Delta B717 Captain would be $235 x 65 hrs/month x 12 months/year = $183,300.

      Similarly, minimum annual pay for a year 12 Delta B717 Captain would be $256 x 65 hrs/month x 12 months/year = $199,680.

      CRJ900 – Skywest
      Skywest CRJ900Captain: $79 (Year 1) to $125 per flight hour (Year 20).
      Skywest CRJ900 Co-Pilot: $45 (Year 1) to $60 per flight hour (Year 8).

      According to airlinepilotcentral.com, Skywest has a guarantee of a minimum of 76 flight hours per month, so minimum annual pay for a first year Skywest CRJ900 Captain would be $79 x 76 hrs/month x 12 months/year = $72,048.

      Similarly, minimum annual pay for a year 20 Skywest CRJ900 Captain would be $125 x 76 hrs/month x 12 months/year = $114,00.

      Captain Pay Ratios (Delta B717 vs. Skywest CRJ900)..
      B717 Year 1 / CRJ900 Year 1 = $235 / $79 = 2.975
      B717 Year 1 / CRJ900 Year 20 = $235 / $125 = 1.880
      B717 Year 12 / CRJ900 Year 20 = $256 /$125 = 2.048

      Captian Pay Rates per Passenger Seat (Delta B717 vs. Skywest CRJ900)
      B717 Year 1: $235 per hour / 110 seats = $2.136 per seat per hour.
      B717 Year 12: $256 per hour / 110 seats = $2.327 per seat per hour.
      CRJ900 Year 1: $79 per hour / 76 seats= $1.039 per seat per hour.
      CRJ900 Year 20: $125 per hour / 76 seats= $1.645 per seat per hour.

      First Year Co-Pilots
      Delta B717: $92 per flight hour, or a minimum of $71,760 per year with Delta’s 65 flight hour per month guarantee.

      Skywest: $45 per flight hour, or a minimum of $41,040 per year with Skywest’s 76 flight hour per month guarantee. Regional pay has been getting better.

      https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy/delta_air_lines
      https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/regional/skywest

      • Total flight crew hourly costs (not including flight attendants), based on the pay scales at the links in my post above.

        Delta B717 with first year captain and c0-pilot.
        Captain ($235/hr) + Co-Pilot ($92/hour) = $327 per flight hour.

        Delta B717 with fifth year captain and co-pilot.
        Captain ($242/hr) + Co-Pilot ($155/hour) = $397 per flight hour

        Skywest CRJ900 with first year captain and co-pilot.
        Captain ($79/hr) + Co-Pilot ($45/hour) = $124 per flight hour.

        Skywest CRJ900 with fifth year captain and co-pilot.
        Captain ($88/hr) + Co-Pilot ($57/hour) = $145 per flight hour

      • More on Delta B717 vs. Skywest payrates according to airlinepilotcentral.com (see my post above for links).

        Delta Retirement Plan: Defined benefit, Delta contributes 16% of pilots pay.

        Skywest retirement plan: 401K, company contributes 4% to 12% based on year of experience.

        Delta per diem year 2018: $2.45 per hour domestic, $2.90 per hour international.

        Skywest per diem: $1.95 per hour.

        • Are those numbers correct on minimum monthly hours
          65 hours ? Minimum ?
          I understand US pilots are paid on ‘wheels up’ time and on duty time can be greater.
          Is that not the case with Delta
          Im thinking 45 hours a month was about the maximum on short haul type flights , which would be about 35-40 flights.

          • Hello Dukeofurl,

            Regarding: “Are those numbers correct on minimum monthly hours
            65 hours ? Minimum ?”

            According to a pilot careers website run by the US Airline Pilots Association “Most pilots fly about 80 hours of block time a month”. See excerpt and link below.

            “Explain pilot pay.
            Pilot pay varies, but most pilots are paid from the moment the door is closed until the door is opened at the destination. This is called a “block” of time. Most pilots fly about 80 hours of block time a month. This time does not include all the time spent at the airport or preparing for departure. However, a pilot’s hourly wage is designed to take all that extra work into consideration.

            What’s per diem?
            Per diem is money provided for incidentals (e.g., food) while you are on a trip. Per diem is generally paid continuously for every hour you are away from base, even while you are sleeping! It generally starts around $1.70/hour and goes up based on company and domestic/international rates. It may not sound like much, but it’s common to be paid for over 300 hours of per diem per month!”

            Regarding: “Is that not the case with Delta
            Im thinking 45 hours a month was about the maximum on short haul type flights , which would be about 35-40 flights.”

            Here is what a Delta 717 pilot had to say about their schedule on airlinepilotforums.com. According to Delta’s website the 717 has a range of 1,510 miles.

            “On the ATL 717 you can’t work less than 16 days a month and fly your standard line. 85% of our trips are 4 days and worth 21 hours. Only way to build a line is 4 x 4 day trips. It’s the new norm unless you’re a WB captain or FO.

            So, a 2nd year 717 FO with a line can fly 16 days and earn roughly $8400/month or he can pick up 1 GS and now he’s working 20 days for 105 hours (~$10.5k). My guess is it’s not too much different on the other NBs.

            This is why we can’t give productivity concessions. My guess is most of us are already working 16+ a month, who wants more?”

            Note that four trips per month of four days and 21 block hours, as in the example cited in the post above, would be 84 block hours per month.

            https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/95626-29-000-month-2.html

            https://www.delta.com/us/en/aircraft/boeing/717

        • Hello bilbo,

          I am glad to hear that you found the information that I posted interesting.

          Sometimes I wonder if the type of detailed information from primary sources that I tend to post, and which interests me much more than my favorite manufacturer is better than your favorite manufacturer mud slinging, is of interest to anybody else here.

        • Agree, AP is better than Wiki. Will be interesting to covert pilot costs to USD/seatmile costs, the A220-300 shouldn’t do to badly compared against an CRJ900. Think pax will gladly pay $5-10/hour more to fly on an A220?

  5. Every union contract has a scope clause – it’s the most important clause in the contract, because it defines the body of work to which the contract applies.

    The scope clause at, e.g. Spirit, may or may not deal with the issue of regional jets in the way that a pilot contract does at, say, American or United, but there will always be, in any union contract, some kind of clause that defines the work covered by the contract.

    If there is no such clause, the contract would be meaningless, because it would not effectively bind the company.

    We’re used to thinking of scope clauses particularly with respect to limitations on outsourcing of regional jet flying by major airlines, but the concept is far more general than that.

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