Pontifications: Getting around as airline service tanks

By Scott Hamilton

March 23, 2020, © Leeham News: There were times last week when the number of private airplanes in the air seemed to outnumber the airliners.

Periodic checks on FlightRadar24 of the skies around Seattle showed a dearth of commercial flights. By Friday, the US carriers already sharply pulled down operations. International flights were largely canceled.

Most cutbacks are likely.

With passenger traffic all but dried up—some flights had load factors of 20%-30% and others only one or two passengers—how might people get around while minimizing exposure to the coronavirus?

The private, general aviation airplanes are one choice.

Using corporate jets is another. But this option isn’t inexpensive, even when consolidating passengers.

Jump in usage

There has been a jump in usage of business jets. Initially, evacuations from Asia spiked demand by those who could afford it.

The Guardian newspaper cited early demand of the wealthy or companies chartering biz jets to evacuate families or employees from Southeast Asia.

Bloomberg also reported a spike in demand elsewhere in the world. This story on Forbes gives a good overview as well.

Not inexpensive

At a time where some Americans caught overseas are still trying to get home, most can’t afford to charter a biz jet or even buy a seat on one.

Lidor Revah is CEO of Imperium Jets, a company that acts as a consolidator/arranger of biz jet flights. At my request, he provided these sample costs to charter or obtain a seat on routes in Europe, the US and in Asia. The prices are per six passengers.

  • Chicago Midway to Teterboro (NJ), across from New York City: $15K-$25K (depends on aircraft type);
  • Los Angeles to Washington Dulles Airport: $63K – $100K (depends on aircraft type);
  • London to Frankfurt: $15K-$25K (depends on aircraft type); and
  • Tokyo to Seoul: $12K-$21K (depends on aircraft type).

Imperium is one of many companies arranging biz jet flights. Imperium works with travel agencies and  brokers. It can respond to inquiries within two hours and handle all the backend work, quotes and arrange payments.

“We see more and more that travel agents have nothing to sell,” Revah says.

How does Imperium ensure that exposure to the virus will be minimized?

Revah says that operators send a form with any quote detailing potential exposure. The chartered jets either won’t fly into an infected area or the crew will take “extreme precautions.”

The flight crew won’t leave the aircraft.

Imperium says the main demand is from the US. It has 12,630 aircraft jets and turboprops in its data base with 2,600 operators. It’s adding cargo aircraft operators, from turboprops to Boeing 747s. Thirty travel agencies became clients since January, Revah says.

There continues to be concern that Europe and the US may close the skies to passenger airline service. Cargo flights will likely be allowed in this event, and Revah believes private and biz jet operations will continue.

Government aid

Despite the spike in traffic, news emerged Friday that the biz-jet industry asked for US federal aid.

CNBC reported that “The National Business Aviation Association, or NBAA, which represents private-jet companies and corporate jets, sent a joint letter with other industry groups to congressional leaders saying the industry is facing “increasing financial uncertainty” and that private-jet companies should be included in any airline or aviation bailout.” The NBAA cited a broader threat: the virus “threatens the survival and prospects of thousands of general aviation businesses,” the letter stated.

A bailout for an industry that largely serves the rich is likely to meet fierce resistance in Congress.

23 Comments on “Pontifications: Getting around as airline service tanks

  1. In Europe rich or at least relatively rich skiers were responsible for much of the the spread of COVID-19

  2. If there was no media hype about COVID, it would just seem like an exceptionally bad flu season.
    Insane to shut down aviation and the economy – a “cure” that’s worse than the problem.

    • Without measures motallity rate would converge toward 3-4% (overwhelmed hospitals –> no ventilators/treatment). Assuming 50% of the population gets it that 6,5mill deaths in US… Cant see how you even remotely can compare that to the flu?

      Exponential growth is scary, just wait for how much the infected number will increase the 10-12 days it takes for effective social distancing to work. Mortality will lag that by another 10 days.

      • Spot on Henrik. We will see beyond grim data come out of Iran.

        What we are doing is buying time (or hope to) to spread it out. That takes mortality way down. It also opens up avenues for vaccine development and drugs that may help if you get sick.

        My sister in law and her daughter suggest the use of Physical Distancing not Social Distancing.

        Keep as well Physically separated as possible but keep on communicating.

      • “Cant see how you even remotely can compare that to the flu?”
        You are totally wrong about the flu

        Current weekly US Centres for Diseases Control (CDC) advice for 2018/19 flu season ( from October) shows 290,000 plus hospitalisations and 23,000 deaths . This is not even a ‘bad flu season’

        Ignorance about how deadly flu is a major problem , its all listed on CDC website on this page (dark blue background)
        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

        Those numbers are even with widely available vaccines and approved anti-viral treatments for the very sick

        • I get that the flu are deadly – but there is a magnitude or two between the numbers..

          • Not really , a bad flu season like 2017/18 was 4000 deaths a week in US .
            Where was the shutdowns at 4000 deaths per week. ?
            This current flu season is heading downwards still deaths are about 1000 per week – which is a good trend.

            Where is the evidence that CV-19 is a magnitude higher ? I follow a professor of medical statistics online and he saying ‘dont know’ other than like any illness older people less likely to survive. Thats what happened with my 88 yr old father some years back- winter flu, hospitalised, died from pnuemonia ( a common complication of flu and CV-19)

            The Diamond Princess cruise ship had 7 deaths out of 3700 people on board. They tested over 80% of those people , which being a cruise was a high proportion of elderly ,60-80+ and the infection rate was 17% and 7 deaths. [Data from a medical paper published , look it up online]
            Thats not a perfect match to real world but that death rate wasnt a magnitude more than flu.

          • Time showed Bill Gates was wrong about a lot of stuff to do with computers , and he would be considered an expert on the subject at the time. Thats the real truism, predictions are often wrong

            In NYC with 8 million , its considered a ‘hotspot’, the cumulative total of infections is at 1 in 700 of the population.
            The cruise ship infection rate was 1 in 6 yet it didnt wipe out the passengers and crew and a death rate of a fraction of 1%

          • Mortality was 1% on that ship.among infected. But again – this was in a place where healthcare wasn’t overwhelmed.
            The we can diskussion wether 17% infected are low or high on a quantined ship.

        • @dukeofurl
          Agreed – little is known therefore panic : but what about next year, or long term damage to world wide economies which this year as next leave poor people with considerably more problems especially health problems

          Do they really think that they can balance this out, even do the math on this ? how
          many deaths caused by economic lockdown ?

          At some stage questions like who or what is old will have to be asked – as they were in the past, as they have forgotten to do

        • Well, if you think Covid-19 is no worse than a seasonal flue, you should take a trip to Northern Italy, where the health care system (which has a high standard) is totally overwhelmed, and has to choose which pasients they can try to save – the rest are left to die. These scenes are not seen during normal flues.

          • True, but since the social system is overwhelmed by homelessness and financial duress currently, what happens in three to six months when 50 million people become broke and homeless in the US? That is not a pretty worst case scenario picture either.

  3. ‘Revah says that operators send a form with any quote detailing potential exposure. The chartered jets either won’t fly into an infected area or the crew will take “extreme precautions.”’

    well so long as they have a form that’s alright then… I really don’t understand the psyche of these people when we are is push a difficult worldwide situation. the guidance almost everywhere is to not travel unless absolutely necessary. This is encouraging unnecessary contact either directly or indirectly when what is needed is the precise opposite

    • The rich do what they want.

      I had two relatives and my wife out of state. Try to survive financially when you get caught out and the money is pouring out.

      So yes they traveled home, no symptoms, did the self quarantine and watching the flight vectors for any associated C-19 cases (none so far).

      If they had picked anything up they wold be better off support wise at home.

      It was done in as responsible a manner as possible and they had no exposure known at locale nor symptoms when traveling.

      You do the best you can with what you are handed.

  4. It might be the return of the “Jet-set” time when Airlines shut down and you either fly a slow prop or a biz jet. The Hondajet should quickly become popular together with the lowest cost biz-jets.

    • Except a lot of the cases are in the jet set and you wonder what they are doing or acting etc that they are picking it up.

      Truedeus wife, legislatures, the people you would think would have the beast advice and protective measures? Tom Hanks and his wife.

  5. Considering that schools, sports, and restaurants are shut down, blocking every other row and selling one seat per row to maintain a minimum of 3′ or 4′ separation on commercial flights would be a start. But maybe it is all the same air system so it is all for naught.

    • Part of the unknown.

      Data says its a lot harder to catch than the Flu though the stats are scary.

      Flip is the issues are a lot worse for 20% of those who catch it, 1% mortality with good care, worse to 3% without it.

      So with airborne, theorize it settles out before 6 feet and the air system does not carry it around and or its going through filters and around corners etc.

      No one has done the data or studies, I have not seen whole places as contact victims with people known to be sick traveling. Not say there are not some or there but not reported as of yet.

      But how the heck does someone like Tom Hanks and his wife get it out of the blue?

      Boeing supposedly takign precautions with an active union and they get 12 down with it (and one individual dead). Sharing food or???

      Having been in a few goat ropes I can see that a lot of BS is spewed with lip service and the management is going through steps and not serious but I would think the workers would be enforcing so do we have one person like Ken above who don’t take this serious?

      Huge unknowns.

  6. How ’bout people just stay home, to minimise the risk of spreading the virus? I’m on furlough from an airline, but my medical wife is working 80 hours/ week preparing for the deluge. Let’s think of society as a whole, rather than what we as individuals want to do.

  7. @dukeofurl

    @dukeofurl
    Agreed – little is known therefore panic : but what about next year, or long term damage to world wide economies which this year as next leave poor people with considerably more problems especially health problems

    Do they really think that they can balance this out, even do the math on this ? how many deaths caused by social & economic lockdown ?

    At some stage questions like who or what is old will have to be asked – as they were in the past, as they have forgotten to do

  8. @dukeofurl

    Agreed – little is known therefore panic : but what about next year, or long term damage to world wide economies which this year as next leave poor people with considerably more problems especially health problems

    Do they really think that they can balance this out, even do the math on this ? how many deaths caused by economic lockdown ?

    At some stage questions like who or what is old will have to be asked – as they were in the past, as they have forgotten to do

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