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By Judson Rollins

Introduction 

June 3, 2021, © Leeham News: Lessors are expected to write down the value of their widebodies as the long-haul travel slump appears set to extend well beyond this year, LNA reported last week.

A tidal wave of excess widebodies has reduced ownership costs to historic lows. Prices will only go lower as lessors finally initiate distressed-asset sales, and lease rates will continue to fall as used widebody inventory grows.

A confluence of factors, topped by the availability of lower-cost used widebodies, could increase the cost advantage of low-cost carriers over legacy competitors – at the same time reduced business travel and lower yields reduce the gap between legacy and LCC unit revenue.

Summary

• Widebody availability is set to increase steadily throughout the decade.
• What airplanes are likely to be most attractive?
• Sustainably lower costs could enable low-cost carriers to overcome a shrunken “revenue gap.”