An Update on Airbus, Boeing Orders at Risk

Subscription Required By Vincent Valery Introduction   Aug. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and delays in the re-certification of the 737 MAX, Boeing lost a large number of 737 MAX orders in 2020. The majority of the cancellations were flagged as ASC 606 adjustments on Boeing Commercial Airplane’s website. Since the Federal Aviaton Administraton lifted the 737 MAX grounding in November, the program has accumulated new orders from longtime Boeing customers, notably Alaska Airlines, Ryanair, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines. Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule similar to the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report. LNA analyzed in July and November last year Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We perform an update of this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs.
Summary
  • Difference between LNA and Boeing methodology
  • Adjustments exacerbate traditional OEM strengths and weaknesses;
  • An upcoming order book clean-up for older programs;
  • Two programs with material adjustments;
  • Some twin-aisle variants are less popular than others.

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