Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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- Engineering, Innovation is our DNA: Embraer November 25, 2024
- No changes to US labor Scope Clauses for indefinite future, says Embraer November 22, 2024
Calhoun’s biggest failure at Boeing: fixing safety
By Scott Hamilton
Commentary
David Calhoun
Aug. 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Kelly Ortberg becomes president and chief executive officer of The Boeing Co. today. He replaces David 
Calhoun, who was named to the position in January 2020. Calhoun replaced Dennis Muilenburg, with a charge to save Boeing from the first 737 MAX crisis and extended grounding; and fix, among other things, the safety culture failures that led to the 21-month grounding of Boeing’s cash cow.
Ortberg has a long list of things to fix, including but not limited to:
- The union contract with the IAM 751, in negotiations now; the contract expires in September
- Fixing Boeing’s safety culture
- Quality control at all the BCA and BDS factories
- Stemming losses at BDS
- Getting BCA production back up to normal rates (50+ for the 737, 10-12 for the 787)
- Getting the MAX 7, MAX 10, and 777X certified
- Regaining the confidence of the FAA, EASA, and other regulators; getting authority to oversee its operations and ticket airplanes back from the FAA
- Repairing the balance sheet
- Integrating Spirit AeroSystems into Boeing
- Returning BCA to profitability
- Launching a new airplane to replace the 737
- Regaining global market share closer to parity with Airbus
- Repair relations with the supply chain
- Negotiate a new contract with the engineers union, SPEEA, in 2026
- Repair relations with the airlines and lessors
- Repair relations with the IAM 751 and SPEEA unions
Ortberg’s long list of things to do reflects a failure of leadership by Calhoun.
Calhoun’s greatest failure
Calhoun’s greatest failure is failing to fix the safety culture, a promise made after the first MAX crisis. The January 5 accident this year in which a door plug blew out of a 737-9 MAX on Alaska Airlines flight 1282 at 16,000 feet revealed safety remained a problem on Boeing’s production line.
Testimony this week at the accident hearings held by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) revealed appalling failures by Boeing that go to the very fundamentals of building and delivering a safe airplane.
Related Articles
- NTSB told of rushed Boeing assembly lines by untrained workers (Seattle Times)
- Flaws, fighting and mystery crew set stage for blowout (Seattle Times)
- Unplanned removal, installation, inspection procedures at Boeing (LNA)
The Seattle Times reported, from the hearing, that Boeing created a 30-page “unplanned removal” procedure for work like that which occurred on the Alaska airplane. Training was non-existent, witnesses testified. The testimony paints an eye-rolling picture of just how lax Boeing’s procedures became, even after “reforms” and “safety committee” recommendations were made following the 2018-19 MAX crisis.
These safety remedies fell under Calhoun’s watch. Failure to ensure these procedures were successfully implemented is his greatest failure as CEO. Alaska 1282 never should have happened.
Credit goes to the CEO when things go well. The buck stops with the CEO when things fail. Fixing Boeing and launching a new airplane program could have been Calhoun’s legacy. Instead, his failure to fix Boeing’s safety culture will be.
“Calhoun’s greatest failure is failing to fix the safety culture, a promise made after the first MAX crisis.”
IMHO this is nothing that anyone can _directly_ by order de mufti or any other means. ( but not for lack of trying.)
Changes can only be affected in an indirect way by changing the company wide work climate.
‘by changing the company wide work climate.’
And who’s job is that?
The Boss.
but: the difference is in wide spectrum but “wack a mole” attack on symptoms or a more holistic approach.
IMU US solving skills are not known for a holistic approach. 🙂
Some pretty twisted ill logic there.
Yes a CEO has a major affect both direct and indirect. Boeing coming from a culture of the Jack Walch (sorry williams) pillaging. Program accounting is the perfect tool for that destroy the company.
Calhoun did nothing other than quick trips to the office to say high to his Administrative Assitant and then off to Maine (odd place, I am sure it was Cabo in the winter)
What I can say is workers (and this is US centric) don’t like management that does not interact with them. We know its not all about us and the many aspects a manager has to deal with, but having them come onto the shop floor (whatever version that is) makes a lot of difference between putting in time and the extra effort for the company.
Boeing needs a full spectrum manager. The employees and the company have been devastated. This is all good from what I am seeing.
No he can’t fix it in 5 minutes, but you start with people.
Agree Transworld. More convoluted and half-baked arguments from Uwe. What else is new?
I agree that Calhoun was never going to do more than a “whack a mole” approach. Until the Alaska door plug incident, he repeatedly dismissed suggestions that Boeing had a culture problem. When he became CEO in 2020 he dismissed it as, “a few bad emails” by employees. You can’t fix a problem without first recognizing there is a problem.
Having said that, Calhoun lacked the knowledge, experience, and management philosophy to fix anything deeper than a balance sheet. His style was to leave operational issues to his lieutenants, so he was never going to fix anything himself.
Having said all this, its a bit broad to impugn the entire US business community for the actions of Calhoun and his destructive Jack Welchian associates. They certainly represent one flavor of US management style, but there are others. Perhaps only this one obnoxious flavor of US business gets exported abroad, kind of like cheese from Switzerland. Here in the US we have a single variety called ‘”Swiss cheese”. I think it called Emmentaler in Switzerland, one of many, many varieties.
Anyhow, glad that Calhoun is out!
Yea Verily on the Wicked Witch is gone!
I don’t think Calhoun cared.
I worked for a company that the Exec never left his office. Never saw him anywhere in the many buildings we ran. He dated one of the Branch managers (who I got cross wise with and I was advised to apologize if I wanted to keep my job)
He did have competent sate people who had grown up with the business and they managed it well. But he had a good business he inherited to start with a a good group management wise as well as employees who went onto various Branch managers and bookkeeping, cash controls etc. Some of them were not nice people but they were effective.
They still are doing well but they crushed employee morale when they changed the evacuation system so you could not get any meaningful raises.
Like Boeing they had a slot and got big enough in it to be immune, but the spirit was gone, it became another job.
As Scott hat noted the Comments were close due to a violation by myself and Pedro, I have not been commenting. I did notify him that close was not working.
This link is what I consider a service to the site as it does an outstanding job of tracking the timelines, who did what and who said what. Its one of the single best pieces of technical writing I have seen. The one comparable was the Maconda blowout which is worth reading (and has a lot in common with this. The amount of time and getting details down is stunning. Huge Kudo to the Seattle Times for exemplary work.
https://archive.ph/3xSAi
It should be noted there is no opinion here, just the link that is the best I have seen information wise.
One thing not on the (impressive) list above, which can’t be fixed: the lack of adequate margin on BA’s order book.
Boeing hasn’t been able to generate meaningfully positive EBIT since September 2019. For those who don’t know, EBIT = Earnings Before Interest and TAX. That means that, even before it has to pay its crippling quarterly interest bill of $800M (was $650M, but went up recently as a result of new debt), it still hasn’t generated meaningful earnings.
Why? Because planes were sold at overly-discounted pricing…and that can’t be undone.
When one compares revenue (for a given mix of aircraft) to list price (for the same mix of aircraft), one consistently arrives at discounting in excess of 60%. In one such recent comparison earlier this year, @Frank P arrived at a figure of 63% for a particular quarter.
The Boeing sales team has sold the company’s soul to the devil.
___
EBIT at BA, as a function of time — the graphs say it all.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BA/boeing/ebit
A bit like McDonnell Douglas did with the MD-80’s sold below cost. We hear of almost no quality problems in Everett, hence the logic would have been to offload 1-2 737 FAL to Everett and move back the 787-9 line and have Charleston concentrate on the 787-10 while Renton redo the moving assembly line for 737 with some Toyota Production System, test its employees in knowledge and keep the skilled ones.
There are repeated reports of FOD found inside 767 KC-46A tankers.
claes:
With all due respect, each one of the Boeing aircraft programs has its own managing system.
Morphing over the 737 to Everett would change nothing as the system would move over there as well as the assembling employees.
The 787 has a different system.
Having been on the pointy end of that software dilema, when do you change a system to a newer one or do you live with the old one?
Sometimes its deemed better to maintain an old system and this looks to be what has occurred at Renton.
A new system is not better, its often a matter of program skills that are gone for old ones vs a new one that uses a newer language, sytem etc.
I do not know what Boeing used for 787 assembly in Everett, we do know the 787 build in Charleston does not share the 737 system.
Clearly a working system existed at one point, so its not the system nor how recent it is, it is how a gap got created for this problem to manifest itself.
Like the 737 manual trim, there should be cross check programs that tell you things were changed and it needs to be looked at.
Yes and no. Certainly, if any of the contracts pre his era are tight and the other party doesn’t want to renegotiate then tough for Calhoun and so long as those bad positions are subtantial and continue to flow through EBIT will disappoint. But it is entirely possible he did ensure any contracts signed in his era are on suitable margin, or that he managed to get some of the bad ones renegotiated to suitable margin and we’ll see that in due course.
Erginbilgic at RR has certainly been talked about as having renegotiated bad positions, so it isn’t impossible in this environment.
As for the sales teams, I’m of the school that at Boeing competent engineers are essential but the right salespeople are the gold dust. They do need someone setting them and enforcing the right performance metrics though.
Woody:
You need both. Arguably if you don’t have competent engineers you don’t have a product for the sale people to sell (or can sell).
It looks to me like they are doing a good enough job selling and the impediment is production. That is floor workers and engineers.
People keep saying this is most important or that is and I argue people are and how they are treated and it has to start at the shop floor. Its both an easy first step and not costing anything (yes the new contract will cost but that was a given)
Now, effective is getting rid of the dead wood that counts on fear and replacing them with people who not only do not but also who can clean up the mess and get the quality control back in place.
Spirit absorption is going to be a lot to swallow regardless and he has to do that, fix the rest as well as defense and space.
You tell people the truth. Bad management got us into this position and there is going to be pain or recovery. But we will re-build the safety system, people will be hired to do that as well as more production for the MAX (the 787 seems to be on the right track but not to be ignored)
But also, we get stabilized, we will be doing the research for a new Aircraft and it will be built in Everett. Future jobs, opportunities for those who want to move up to foreman positions (leads etc).
I would work with the Union to low load the front of the contract and increase it on the back side more. Pretty simple, its not your fault the position we are in but you will be horribly affected if we can’t recover. Give me as much a chance here as possible and I will make commitments for jobs here.
Charleston is the same aspect though maybe not a contract to sign, but also aware, if we can do good on production, then we will ensure your jobs and hire more, chances to move up if you want or stability if you like where you are at.
Commit to no lower than rate 5 x 787 as long as you have X number of orders in backlog.
Start moving the engineers BACK to those locations they are supporting, not hundreds of miles away. Same job, same pay, moving allowances.
There are a lot of carrots to play and best of all, you get to eat the carrot because there are more.
You’re jumping to a conclusion here. Boeing bid programs assuming a much higher production rate. This means each aircraft needs to absorb less fixed overhead. At lower rates these hit the period because they’re not being fully absorbed which causes profit to fall. To make the conclusion you do, you’d have to see gross margin once production is normalized
The word “normalized” is doing a lot of work in the final sentence, since it has never yet occurred in Boeing 737MAX production, and there
is no present evidence that it will.
“Boeing bid programs assuming a much higher production rate.”
Which is simply another way of saying that BA sold planes at prices that are insufficient to cover costs.
Why they did that — e.g. based on overly-optimistic production rates — is a secondary issue.
A prudent enterprise would ensure enough margin to cover fluctuations in production rate; only being able to generate a (meager) profit at (very) high production rates is a foolhardy business model.
“At lower rates these hit the period because ..”
What caused the production to slow down? Is it controllable or not by BA?? Why the panel blew out of the 737-9? An act of God??
Only ideologists care about own legacy. Most others only care about money.
Well that is profoundly philosophical though I miss what it has to do with anything Boeing management wise.
The most telling charge against Calhounis that Boeing agreed a number of measures under a default prosecution agreement and didn’t implement them, presumably because it wasn’t a priority for management.
I will disagree.
The charge should be criminal and incompetence.
He did not even try.
Another possibility is that Calhoun and the Board have no lived experience with manufacturing, safety, quality, or technical problem-solving.
Their baseline understanding is that their business is “mature.” The Henry Ford insight for mature products is to just crank up rate, while cutting costs. From that perspective, Calhoun and others regard all their systems as highly optimized and their product failures as one-offs.
Calhoun and many other executives lack the imagination to solve these problems.
“From that perspective, Calhoun and others regard all their systems as highly optimized and their product failures as one-offs. ”
Interesting point.
cranking up rate is OK.
cutting cost beyond scale effects leads to accumulating process erosion.
failures are no longer one-offs but systemic.
difficult to notice and heed the transition?
Except the feedback is different here.
A) It is the 2020s, not the 1920s or similar. So news travels instantly everywhere and can have much greater impact and momentum.
B) Multiplied by any failure being VERY high neworthiness, unlike some B2C product that break’s Timmy’s wrist or means Aunt Martha doesn’t make it to her niece’s wedding.
Lacking imagination can certainly be an issue though. I recall chatting with engineers who installed German products that proved highly unreliable. The German engineers refused to believe any unreliabilty until they were persuaded to visit, saw for themselves and instantly accepted the issue (and rigorously and effectively resolved it).
Calhoun did not care nor want to solve the problems.
It is not incompetence, its sheer robbery.
Calhoun is too immersed in the industry to now know how it works.
I don’t buy the ignorance idea.
There have been a plethora of assessments of Boeing in the press. While a CEO should not read them all, they will have a press office that offers the synopsis of what is being said.
What is being talked about in Public affects the company and its stock.
Calhoun simply wanted the money and saw no need to waste his time on management. That take work and clearly he did not want to do that.
Calhoun protected and made a significant safety improvement- his obscene salary and platinum parachute as per his Jack Welch training and previous fellow Welchites.
What we see today at Boeing did not start with Calhoun whom only brought to a new level the idea of maximizing profit while ignoring the rest. This new culture started with Phil Condit. At the time, and ever since, I couldn’t believe what the string of new CEOs were now doing at Boeing, each one seemingly worse than his predecessors.
Here are a few questionable things they did:
1- The merge with McDonnell-Douglas
2- The headquarters move to Chicago
3- The parting with historical Wichita plant
4- The way the unions were treated by Boeing
5- The way the suppliers were treated by Boeing
6- The procrastination on development of new programs
7- The excessive use and abuse of the 737 grandfather clause
8- The deliberate deconstruction of the safety organization
9- The FAA abdication of its power in favour of Boeing
10- The unrealistically agressive push to get the airplanes out
11- The all out attacks on rivals, like Airbus and Bombardier
12- The obsession with maximization of profits over everything else
I have been witnessing the above unfolding in realtime for the last 27 years.
NH:
While valid its repeating the past. Learn the lesson and I hope we have but if there is a future for Boeing, you have to start with the reality of what is NOW not what was before.
You can’t even duplicated before, its a different age and era but you can make now good in the present reality.
Once Condit was in of course it was going to keep spiraling. Its not that each one was worse, its each one broke more and more.
I think the worst was McNerney. Muilenberg was over his head and Calhoun was destructive per Condi and McNerney but the damage was done under McNearney who was hostile to not just unions but wanted social security killed. He shipped engineers to places that had nothing to do with what they were responsible for.
He sold off or broke down divisions of capability. The others went along with it and did nothing but the real damage was McNerney.
Calhoun was Nero.
Scott, you wrote: “Getting BCA production back up to normal rates” and mentioned 10-12 for the 787.
To my knowledge, and tell me if I am wrong, Boeing closed the Everett 787 line. That means all 787s now get produced at North Charlestown, a plant that has been notorious for mediocre quality, but is, at least if there were no shadow factories necessary, cheaper than Everett. That factory had a capacity of 7 per month at its peak.
So, would you suggest to re-open Everett or expand Charlestown? Is that feasible at a moment when it seems they have been struggling with getting the 787 produced to standard since the beginning of production?
Expand Charleston
Charleston was setup for room for TWO lines. Each capable of 7 a month.
I believe the 2nd line was activated and then the drop Covid followed by the Shim gap debacle.
So yea, Charleston can make 14 a month – all the tooling that was in Everett will have been moved there.
I have yet to see any evidence that a wide body should be made in more than 6-8 a month.
You may ramp up and hit into the teeth of the next downturn and ramp right back down.
Better to be stable. Boeing was chasing money at rate 14 – Airbus is chasing money at rate 10 for the A350.
You cannot serve two masters at the same time. Who needs a god when you have bonuses structured to raise the stock price at the cost of engineering and safety. Time will tell with the New Guy. As we can see by the article there’s a lot of important things on the to-do-list. I would add one more: Get a new board of directors. God-fearing folks. People with character. Engineers. Men and Women from Boeing’s Unions. Accountants with long-term vision.
I don’t think religion has any place in this conversation.
Safety costs money. Unfortunately for Boeing, that money will eat up its profit margin for the foreseeable future.
Yes it does and that is why I am calling it 5 years.
Union contract will eat up money as well. Hopefully the unions will be on board with the effort to recover and get more jobs than revenge (as appealing as that may be)
I hope Ortberg is meeting with the union management now laying the groundwork for a mutual beneficial deal.
That would include the commitment to the next aircraft being built in Everett.
I suspect an agreement to move 737 build out of Renton and sell that location off.
Maybe the NG build continue there for the E-7 and P-8 programs. Certainly the last to move as you don’t want to mess with those programs. MAX can move a line and slowly ramp up, then another one and then the third if its needed.
What profit margin?
@Frank
I don’t think you and I are disagreeing.
The one where you sell something for more than the cost to build.
I know you are of the school of build nothing and you get maximum profits but there is a logic bust there (can you see it?)
Safety does cost money, but as we’re seeing safety is an awful lot cheaper in the long run than the alternatives.
That’s what I find totally mystifying about how Boeing’s management has run the company into the ground. They’d have have been monumentally dumb to fail to understand the potential costs to themselves and the company in delivering substandard aircraft. It’s the kind of inevitable consequence of “cheaping out” that would give me nightmares, keep me from sleeping and bringing me out into a shivering cold sweat.
Every penny invested in good QA/QC is money well spent.
What’ll be interesting now is to see if shareholders sue management individuals personally (if they aren’t already).
Mr. Ortberg intends to walk the factory floor.
A good sign, but basically just a PR gesture — since it will take a lot more than factory walks to sort out the mess at BA.
Apart from that, his first memo has “waffly” syntax — reminiscent of Dave’s inaugural memo when he became CEO.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/boeing-s-new-ceo-touts-transparency-plans-to-walk-factory-floor/
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=131478
Some choice waffle:
“I can’t tell you how proud and excited I am to be a member of the Boeing team.”
“Restoring trust starts with meeting our commitments — whether that’s building high quality, safe commercial aircraft, delivering on defense and space products that allow our customers to meet their mission, or servicing our products to keep our customers running 24/7. It also means meeting our commitments to each other and working collaboratively across Boeing to meet our goals.”
“In speaking with our customers and industry partners leading up to today, I can tell you that without exception, everyone wants us to succeed. In many cases, they NEED us to succeed. This is a great foundation for us to build upon.”
“We have what it takes to win, and I’m committed to working with you to focus the company in a way that makes us all proud to be a part of Boeing.”
—
I wish him well — but I don’t think he can actually do anything that will make a meaningful difference.
Choice waffle likely provided and insisted upon by the relevant PR/legal team.
Sounds like:
“Same sh#t, different CEO”
🙈
Likely- but it is no doubt good news that he’ll be relocating to Seattle, unlike the last guy, who apparently phoned it in
from his lodge in Maine.
Having worked the floors of a lot of operations I will tell Abalone he has not a clue what he is talking about.
Sour grapes is all he is about.
I do know, employees like to see and talk to management, even if they don’t agree. It huge. Maybe not in Europe but it sure is over here.
Calhoun never came withing a 2000 miles of a shop floor and the floor knows they are viewed as unwashed masses by the like of that clown.
What Ortberg has done is told employees, it is not the same. Any good manager knows where the money is made, its made on the output of the shop floor.
Yes you need managers and accountants to make a company work, but if they have nothign to work with, the best of those is useless.
Ortberg is going to have a priod of grace to prove it, but the first step is putting you presence where your mouth his and he has done that.
He will continue to do that. He has a reputation of doing just that and being successful while doing it.
He also has a reputation for listening and taking in a view different that his and giving it due consideration.
So yea, Abalone has no more of a clue than Calhoun did.
Looks like Transworld is doing his best to get comments shut down — yet again 🤭
Old habits die hard…🙈
Yea that was in excess and I apologize. I have not seen your name atop a company that did what Calhoun did so that was out of bounds.
I will restate it, I don’t see any evidence that you know what you are so selectively posting about.
Sadly Calhoun knew what he was doing and that was continue the process of Liquidating the Company.
So yea, his greed for the money and destroying a 100 billion plus company while doing it was as bad as it gets sans a dictator.
No comparison with you and I was wrong to do so.
While the criticism is Valid this also has Bryce written all over it.
That suspension was during his Era.
I have been pondering it and its his style with enough of a change to mask it. Same cavalier and selective use of facts to paint a picture that is in truth wrong.
Kind of like when they do documents review and can sleuth out who actually wrote them.
I wish Mr. Ortberg the best of luck with that long to-do list left by his predecessor. One wonders why anyone would take this job.
Regarding the last guy getting paid *$33,000.000 last year* for
blithely running BA into the ground, I will remain silent.
“Dollar Dave” hasn’t raked in enough cash yet: he’s staying on for a while as “special advisor”, so that he can continue to milk the cow a little bit more.
I’m much more concerned about DD’s influence over Ortberg’s decision-making than the additional money he’ll extract.
Remember too, that DD remains on BA’s Board.. here’s hoping
Ortberg has real power; he’s gonna need it.
Yes…god forbid that Ortberg is just a front-stage puppet, with Dave pulling the strings from behind a screen.
Vincent:
I to have no idea but maybe its the challenge?
Anyone can mess something up.
It takes someone special to clean up a mess.
For the employees and the vendors and the jobs for those people, I am hoping for the best. Calhoun could walk off a cliff in Maine for all I care and it would be no loss (and yea that is harsh but the damage he has done is almost unfathomable). He no more knows how to run a company than I do. I could wreck it just as badly as he did.
So yea, its going to be a long recovery if they can recover.
On Mr. Ortberg’s “to-do” list:
“FAA Has Doubled Its Enforcement Cases Against Boeing”
“A federal Aviation Administration official said Wednesday that the agency has 16 pending enforcement cases against Boeing, half of which have been opened since a door plug blew off a 737 Max in midflight.
“The increase in cases was disclosed Wednesday during a National Transportation Safety Board hearing into the accident, which happened during an Alaska Airlines flight on Jan. 5.”
https://www.manufacturing.net/laws-regulations/news/22917164/faa-has-doubled-its-enforcement-cases-against-boeing
16 pending enforcement cases, 8 since the door fell out? Oh goodness me.
I’m a bit of a fan of meta processes. One puts in place a set of processes to achieve a goal (e.g. safe, flyable aircraft). However, in the same way that designs can be improved, so can processes. That process improvement process is what I’d call a meta process (and companies like Toyota are very expert at having several layers of this).
Where I’m going with this is that, at present, the FAA has a process for dealing with Boeing. And in the 8 months since the door blew out they’ve found 8 more things to get very serious about. At some point, someone ought to be taking a step back and revalidating that the approach being followed by the FAA is actually fit for purpose.
The fact that they have found 8 more things to worry about is (from the FAA’s point of view) positive; they’ve gone in, and are finding things that are wrong. This means that whatever they’re doing is producing critically important results (risk to the general public is being reduced, for which they FAA is to be congratulated).
But it could be useful to analyse their performance so far against expectations, to see if that in itself indicates something about Boeing. For exeample, if any of those 8 things had been a big surprise (“Surely Boeing can’t have messed that up too?”), the FAA might have to adjust it’s thresholds for surprise. It would therefore have to adjust how deeply it looks are areas of the company that it might previously have assessed as “low risk”.
NASA had an interesting comment on the Space X vs Boeing capsules.
They felt Space X was new and did not know what they were doing so they got more scrutiny.
Boeing should have known and got a lot less and we see whose capsule is failing.
NASA admitted they messed up with their assumptions.
FAA messed up (I think they are lazy) and assumed they could do paper audits.
While Boeing has to correct its many failures, the FAA was more than complicit and should have people at any level of the industry they interact with on the floor.
So yep, the FAA needs to look at its system and fix it and then not assume anything with those it monitors.
We have seen all sorts of maint failures with the US airlines and that is a system failure that is in the FAA arena as well.
If they have to go to congress with their heads hung low and say, we need more money, they they danged well should be there hat in hand.
After blaming FAA, now the narrative has shifted to blaming NASA. it’s either the regulator’s fault or the customer’s, but never admit who should bare the greatest blame. If you’re good at reaping the benefits, don’t run away like a three year old when things go awry. Shrugged.
The problem with being a regulator is that – all things being normal – one is by definition partly to blame. The regulators set the regulations, and even if a manufacturer has adhered strongly to the regulator, there’s always room for improvement.
The problem as I see it in the USA is that there has been at least one company (Boeing) hell bent on circumventing as much regulatory cost as possible, it has used every employment and political trick in the book to get its way, has used it’s own historical reputation to politically justify the regulatory relief it has sought, and when things have started to go wrong has also used the “We’re too big to fail” angle to generate an atmosphere in which few people in a regulatory role are powerful enough or personally prepared to unleash chaos by bringing things to an abrupt regulatory end.
Ultimately that kind of failure is political, not regulatory. If a regulator fears the political fall out from taking a big decision impinging on themselves personally, it’s the politicians who bear the responsibility, not the regulator. When you look at the levels of funding stripped away from the FAA by politicians from all sides for the two decades prior to the MAX crashes, you see my point.
NASA personnel are no more immune to the political pressures in the USA than their FAA colleagues. A very important question is, why does this happen? I think it comes down to the US constitutional set up, which evidently makes for a very hostile political environment for effective regulation. It’s also unique in the world.
This is perhaps why government regulators in other counties (where the excutive almost always holds total power over the legislative process) don’t suffer political pressue, and why the companies they regulate have long since learned that you play by the books or suffer.
Is FAA going to ground SpaceX until it cleans up its act?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/spacex-repeatedly-polluted-waters-in-texas-tceq-epa-found.html
I realize there are a lot of pressing things that Boeing needs to fix before we talk about new airplanes. Once the 777-9/MAX7/10 are EIS. Yes first priority is a 737 replacement. But I kind of see this as a two type need. Airbus has the A220-100 and they seem popular, Delta has a ton of them and I’ve been on them a few times. Then you have the 757 replacement that never happened, the MOM is currently being taken over by the A321XLR with zero response (or one that airlines don’t laugh at, cough MAX10). It is a really hard to have an aircraft cover 100-270 pax with a range from 3,000 – 5500 nm. The Yellowstone project; Y2 (787) and Y3 (777X but is a derivative of the 777) came about but Y1 (737/757) has never happened. Boeing seems it rather milk a 1968 design rather than do a clean sheet. I grew up loving Boeing but I’m starting to hate being on a 737 as it is narrower and less comfortable than an A220/A320. It’s hard to believe it has been over 20 years since Boeing did a CS design. I beginning to wonder if they even can. I know the Airlines also are frustrated as passengers see the 737 as old/dirty/unsafe and it shows up in their internal surveys that way.
I have yet to fly an A320 or an A220.
I have flown 737 extensively and on a 6 hour trip. It was not the space that hurt, it was my butt. Unless Airbus airlines pad the seats better, I doubt its an issue. Of course loosing another 30 pounds would help that but the family padding is not in our butts.
People talk about shoulder room, I have wide shoulders and am fine on a 737. Fine on an E1-175.
“It is a really hard to have an aircraft cover 100-270 pax with a range from 3,000 – 5500 nm”
Yes, it is — when you don’t have any funds to develop such an aircraft.
Insightful I say, Insifghtfull
A220-100 (3,450nm), A220-300 (3,600nm), A320LR (4,000nm) & A321XLR (~4,500nm)
An yet Airbus have four. 319 gives you five…if you want to count it.
“Boeing execs admit they can’t promise another door plug blowout won’t ‘happen tomorrow’”
““Are you 100% sure a defect will not occur tomorrow?” NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy asked Boeing’s vice president of regulatory compliance and core quality Hector Silva.”
““No,” he replied.
“She then asked Silva whether there could be another door plug installed without the same due diligence that was missed prior to the Alaska Airlines incident.”
““I cannot make a promise or guarantee of that,” he said, before adding: “We are definitely committed to making sure that all the changes we need to make are made.””
—
“But one instrumental piece of information remains shrouded in mystery for both Boeing and the NTSB: when and by whom the door plug was placed back on the plane without the bolts.
““We don’t know and neither do they and that’s a problem,” Homendy told reporters during a break in the hearing.
“Additionally, Boeing’s 737 factory had issues with unauthorized work on door plugs “for years,” she told CNN.
“NTSB board member J Todd Inman argued Boeing is playing a “game of whack-a-mole” every five to 10 years with safety.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/boeing-door-plug-alaska-airlines-ntsb-hearing-b2593399.html
—
That’s interesting: apparently, some people think that the simple act of being “committed” to a process will ensure that the process will succeed.
What planet do these execs come from?
Do they make any effort whatsoever to actually *earn* their salaries?
I continue to think that something very strange and big is going on- much bigger than BA, proper.
The blithe attitudes are a hint.
And the FAA had not a clue.
Tells you a lot about the whole system degrading. And I know, yea the FAA was the gold standard.
The Certification process the FAA was sup[posed to manage was and still is a gold standard.
The FAA never lived up to it. Anyone remember the DC-10? 737 crashes. 767 crash?
The FAA always had issues, serious ones.
When Boei9ng started on its downward trajectory, the FAA was not going to correct it and did not until the blow out.
Then it was oh, yea, we need to get people on the factory floor to see what is going on.
In my world, its called pencil whipping. You lie and I will swear to it.
Earn their salaries, the ones they are entitled to? And walk away with 10s of millions.
And for those who say Calhoun did not understand it, yea he did. Its not like it was news or he did not have background. He just did not care and knew he would get his ill gotten gains.
Last of the Golden Goose eggs when you kill it.
It’s all about the money. Boeing needs to address the financial incentive structures from top to bottom. This is the only way to affect meaningful change and in fact the same tools Calhoun and his predecessors used to undermine the Engineering and Safety culture that used to exist.
Money pays for it.
Its all about people and Ortberg is sending that message.
There a dozens if no hundreds of things that need doing now, but you only have 24 hours in a day.
So he spent the first part of valuable time being where he needed to be.
The finances are going to take years to correct. You can start fixing morale by doing just what he did.
A productive willing work force can help you overcome issues. You need the system in place to ensure that but right now you need commitment and willing to speak up.
He is showing that he values that most of all.
The key to getting money is fixing the system, not the other way around. Money is a means to an end.
Let me get this right, they created a 30 page procedure for unplanned removal & expected guys working on the line under time pressures to spend a day reading & discussing it before removing something? Anyone who has had a job in any industry covered by an SMS knows that this has nothing to do with safety, it’s all about blame
Or CYA.
Its going to take time to tear that down, but you have to start with the first step and he has done that.
As far as I can tell, Calhoun has rendered one, perhaps even two HUGE services to the Boeing Company. First, he was instrumental in exposing the NMA internally for the product development fraud that it was. There is nothing more damaging to an airplane company than developing the wrong product given the circumstances, and the NMA was exactly such a product. It was consuming an enormous amount of resources at a time when Boeing could ill afford to work on something so irrelevant. The second possible service he rendered was de-emphasizing the TTBW, which was a similarly fraudulent proposition designed to keep a clique of IMO incompetent leaders and their lackeys employed (the same people formerly busy on NMA). The latter is still in the process of unfolding, we will see if the new CEO is intelligent enough to see the fraud for what it is and slowly dismantle this clique. Thank you Mr Callhoun.
Wow, and you think that all that was vision? I think it was all about it going into his pocket.
I think you are totally off base on the TTBW. In fact he was more on board with it than you would have thought.
In that case I think its a shiny lure for the board to keep feeding him money and he was not going to be around for the results.
In fact research is on going with TTBW and while I don’t make any predictions, it is one area where you could have an affect efficiency wise that is not all on engines.
For all its issues, the MAX is on equal footing with the A320 series as far as economic go.
Aerodynamics is a very mature area and a gain there is extremely difficult.
Three-in-a-row:
Following deferrals by Spirit and JetBlue in the past few days, Frontier is now also deferring:
“The last airline to announce a deferral is Frontier Airlines, which did so on 8 August 2024. In total, the airline is deferring 54 A320neos and A321neos which it planned to take delivery of between 2025 and 2028. Instead, they now plan to take them on from 2029 onwards. Next to the deferral, Frontier Airlines also said it has decided to swap orders for eighteen A321XLRs into regular A320neos. The low-cost carrier currently has open orders with Airbus for 49 A320neos and 147 A321neos.”
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/us-low-cost-carriers-defer-airbuses
BA had 130 cancellations in H1…we should have the July figures within the next few days.
This is rapidly going south.
Looks like Mr. Ortberg is going to be contending with a shrinking/sliding order book.
Or the economy is starting to get iffy and orders are being cancelled and as Airbus does not allow canceled, deferred.
In fact Boeing may be in a better position than Airbus as they are not over ramped.
“Airbus does not allow canceled,”
arguing from faulty premises can not lead to valid insight.
When there’s a lack of insight, the only alternative is faulty arguments.
“Boeing’s Woes Deepen As Report Identifies Problems With NASA’s Moon Rocket Contract”
“The OIG’s report covers the SLS Block 1B rocket, which will increase the SLS system’s payload capacity from a current 27 tons to 38 tons. A key part of this upgrade is a new Exploration Upper Stage (EUS), which is the second stage responsible for sending Orion and other payloads to the Moon.
“In its assessment, the OIG reveals that lackluster quality management at Boeing’s Michoud facilities has led to considerable delays to the EUS’ completion. These include “foreign object debris was identified inside the SLS Core Stage 2 liquid hydrogen fuel tank,” including metal shavings and Teflon. These issues, along with others, have led the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA), which works with NASA for contractor oversight, to issue a total of 71 Level 1 and Level 2 Corrective Action Requests (CARs) to Boeing, out of which 24 were Level 2 CARs which are more serious.”
“NASA also requested its Stages chief safety officer to write an even more serious draft Level III CAR to combine findings from 20 CARs Is and IIs for stamp level warranties issued to Boeing between January 2022 and April 2023. A stamp warranty provides an undertaking to the agency that its contractor has met all work instructions and Level III CARs typically first see a draft before an official request is submitted.
“Some violations flagged under these included an incorrect approval of “hardware processing under unacceptable environmental conditions, accepted and presented damaged seals to NASA for inspection,” outlined the OIG.”
https://wccftech.com/boeings-woes-deepen-as-report-identifies-problems-with-nasas-moon-rocket-contract/
—
Sounds like a space version of the hapless KC-46A FrankenTanker.
NASA should have talked to the USAF before making a fool of itself.
Poor Mr. Ortberg is certainly getting a baptism of fire 🙈
Regarding Mr. Ortberg’s floor walk in Renton, yesterday.
https://fortune.com/2024/08/08/boeing-max-safety-new-ceo-first-day-factory-floor/
The article doesn’t say how many incidences of FOD and/or misdrilled holes he detected while walking around.
It also doesn’t tell us when or where his next walkaround will be — e.g. Charleston?
What is does tell us is:
““I’m excited to dig in!” Ortberg told employees on his first day in the job.”
…and, yet, not excited about having to answer tough questions from the press:
“The company declined to make Ortberg available for interviews.”
One wonders when we’ll start to get some content. While we’re waiting, the company is burning through $35M per day…
In today’s new article on LNA, there’s a very relevant question:
“While Boeing has faced increased scrutiny from regulators, which has trickled down to SA, why does Spirit seem able to produce components for Airbus that pass inspection and enter into the AB supply chain, in increasing numbers?”
—
Any theories as to why?
Anyone here who thinks that things at Spirit will improve if the BA takeover bid is consummated?
I think those are excellent questions. No answere here..
Simple. Spirit under Boeing does not have to make a profit.
It makes fuselages and noses (for the most part) at cost and Boeing sales determines the profit per aircraft and they have more to work with..
Pretty easy stuff.
The messy part of course is cleaning it up and getting Spirit in line with Boeing systems while Boeing is getting its system in line with the build certification.
Spirit has lost over $1.4 billion on its 787 program and unable to fund an increase of production as BA plans. Spirit is at risk of a financial implosion. Glad that ticking time bomb will be sitting on BA’s lap.
Don’t forget: the manufacturing quality of BA components by Spirit is horrendously bad — only 30% of produced 737 fuselages currently passing muster. That’s going to cost BA a LOT of money to fix.
Plus: BA will have to add Spirit’s $4B debt to its own debt mountain.
Sounds like a great deal 🙈
Forbes: “Boeing’s Bad Year Is About To Get Worse”
“The embattled plane maker may be heading for a damaging strike with its biggest union, which wants a rich new contract – and a bigger say in how the company is run.”
“The machinists’ leverage is high given skilled labor shortages – 35 percent of jobs at U.S. durable goods manufacturers were unfilled as of June, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Also high: the anger of longtime union members. Over the past decade Boeing executives used the threat of relocating work away from the Seattle area to negotiate a series of contract extensions that held wages stagnant, took away workers’ pension plans and shifted healthcare costs to them.”
“Last month the members of Lodge 751 of the International Association of Machinists voted 99.9% in favor of authorizing their leadership to call a strike in a raucous meeting of some 20,000 workers at the Seattle Mariners’ stadium. The machinists have a long list of demands that could be hard for the company to swallow, including a 40% pay raise over three years, the restoration of the pension plan and the elimination of mandatory overtime, which the union argues would help reduce increased worker turnover that has contributed to a steep loss of experience on the assembly line.”
““Unless Boeing gives them everything with a side of strawberry ice cream, they’re going to go out,” said a former union member familiar with the negotiations who couldn’t comment publicly in his current position.
“In response to questions from Forbes, Boeing spokesperson Bobbie Egan wrote: “We remain confident we can reach a deal that balances the needs of our employees and the business realities we face as a company.””
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2024/08/09/boeings-bad-year-is-about-to-get-worse/
—
This will be an interesting test for Mr. Ortberg…
“COMAC C919 Inches Closer To EU Certification With EASA Favorable Facility Audit”
“The Comac C919 has been inching closer to certification in the European Union (EU). The bloc’s regulators have been visiting their Chinese counterparts to assess the C919, including its simulators. The recently concluded third visit, out of a round of four, resulted in ‘favorable feedback,’ suggesting the regulator likes what it sees.”
“This was the third and most important stage of EASA’s four-round inspection procedure, where it establishes whether the product conforms to regulatory requirements on everything from the structure to the electrical systems.
“While this is a long way from getting the aircraft certified, the ‘positive feedback’ suggests it was a ‘pass’ from EASA. Chinese media is reporting hopes of certification in Europe by 2025, but EASA said earlier this year that the aircraft was ‘too new’ to certify yet.”
https://simpleflying.com/c919-eu-certification-comac-favorable-audit-easa/
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3273736/chinas-c919-edges-closer-eu-landing-regulators-give-positive-feedback
It will be interesting to hear Mr. Ortberg’s views on COMAC / China…
I recall some here claiming- categorically- that EASA / FAA would “never” certify the COMAC C919. We’ll see.
Its not if, its when for C919 EASA cert.
On that subject (from June):
“2024 CAAC-EASA Aviation Safety Conference successfully held in Xiamen, China”
“Around 250 aviation professionals from authorities and industry gathered on 28-30 May at the 2024 CAAC-EASA Aviation Safety Conference in Xiamen to address global challenges in aviation safety and sustainability and seek opportunities for cooperation. The flagship event underscored the prioritisation of safety by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), as well as the importance attached to knowledge sharing and collaboration to enhance safety standards, facilitate innovation, and foster sustainable aviation cooperation between China and Europe. The organisation of the Conference was supported by the EU-China Aviation Partnership Project (APP) and Xiamen Airlines.”
“On the main Conference Day of May 29, keynote speeches were held by EASA and CAAC senior management, as well as by senior industry representatives from Xiamen Airlines, Airbus, Comac Intelligent Technology Co., Safran Helicopter Engines, and the AVIC China Helicopter Research and Development Institute. In the afternoon, panel discussions took place, further deepening the exchanges between Chinese and European experts. The main topics discussed included the mitigation of risks and addressing of operational challenges to ensure safety in aircraft operations, the landscape of General Aviation (GA) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM), drone integration, and standards to ensure safety, efficiency, and interoperability in the industry.”
https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/2024-caac-easa-aviation-safety-conference-successfully-held-xiamen-china
Well stay tuned, its not been done yet.
Oh, and they have to fulfill hundreds if not a thousand Chinese orders first, or are those really not orders?
China has been trying to get a World Certification for 25 years. If at first you don’t succeed, keep doing the same things wrong and hope for a different outcome! Call it the Little Engine that could not.
And for those who jump in, when the ARJ started, the US was working hand in hand with China (well shipping our industry there as fast as we could). The cooperation included FAA work on certification that met US (which would have then met EASA).
The FAA and China mutually agreed to drop the ARJ as it was so messed up that they could not untangle it.
They agreed to make the C919 compliant. China proceeded to do the same as they did on the ARJ, kept going when they needed to stop and get the system in order. The FAA told them, the system has to be in place and this is the structure but you also have to provide documentation that you did the tests and what the results were. COMAC kept boiling ahead. FAA gave up, well before Trump.
So yea, you guys jump on it was an anti China move. It was not. It was a China refusal to provide the requirements.
Ironic that is what has held up cert of the 777X and the MAX-7/10. Boieng had to get snubbed down as they no longer could run over the FAA.
But you cheer China on for doing even worse and refusing. Now they want another go. The EASA is going to ask for that same structure and documentation. Not just on one time, on the whole build.
The C919 is going to be out of production before that happens and they keep changing it so there is not even a basis for documentation.
If you think its that easy look at Mitsubishi. They do have that Cert and failed and the MRJ. They were trying and the FAA was fully on board.
If finally came down to, we can save this but we have to start at the beginning and then Mitsubishi recognized the reality that they had to cut it back to Scope levels and there was no market that justified trying to build it.
It really helps understanding what is going on today if you have a factual history to start with not the tag line it was all Anti China.
Now why EASA wants to do China dirty work for them, that I do not get. Maybe with no new aircraft they need to keep their pencils sharp and people working and the C919 is just the project to do it on.
Source(s) pls! Thx.
Read the history.
Nice pics of the Great Wall of China to be had.
What are the sources of your post??
You have none?
Well lets see, I don’t have an ref to 1776 but I know what happened back then.
Just because you were not there or paying attention, it does not mean its not true.
Disagree all you want, its the history of what occurred.
Or you can dig in and find a counter to it. Make my day.
“I recall some here claiming- categorically- that EASA / FAA would “never” certify …”
It’s called the strategy of “denial”, practiced by some large flightless birds.
“China has been trying to get a World Certification for 25 years.”
Lol. Strategy of denial doesn’t work when *history* says otherwise. Back in 1995, FAA certified an aircraft developed by HAIC. That latest “variant”, with almost everything redesigned, is certified by both* FAA & EASA. Oops.
Yeah, that one never lets the facts get in the way of a self-pleasing tall tale.
@Pedro is referring to the (nifty) AVIC Y12F:
https://simpleflying.com/china-y12f-propeller-aircraft-certified-easa/
“Frontier Airlines finalized an agreement with Airbus, deferring aircraft that were scheduled to be delivered between 2025 and 2028 to between 2029 and 2031.”
“In addition, the airline canceled its A321XLR order, which was finalized in June 2019, when the carrier purchased 18 A321XLRs. ”
“As of June 30, the airline had commitments for 198 A320neo family aircraft, with deliveries scheduled through 2029.’
Need to wonder how many of those 198 A320neo will ever be delivered
Qatar and UA now have lots of earlier slots to avail of 👍
Agreed that the A320 slots will likely be converted to A321 slots.
Sorry guys, I’ve been drowning in tasks the past few days. There are a couple of observations that I can add.
On the business of the importance of leadership being close to the product and development processes, I recall an incident that happened under T Wilson’s tenure. Serious consideration was given to building a new corporate executive center on the west side of SeaTac, over where the Weyerhaeuser hangar is located. It was finally nixed in favor of redeveloping the new and old engineering buildings at Plant II and turning a piece of the old executive office building into a new façade. The primary reason was to keep leadership close to the action. T thought that being down at SeaTac would be too far removed, and we are only talking a few miles across town.
Along the same lines, a fad developed in the 1950s for some American industrial giants to build new skyscrapers. International Harvester built one in the Chicago loop on the side of the original McCormick Reaper plant. GM bought a Ford built condo and office complex on the Detroit river called the Renaissance Center. Pan Am built that curious thing in midtown Manhattan. The list goes on. Virtually every once great industrial giant that did that went bankrupt. Skyscrapers are for companies that belong in central cities like banks and insurance companies.
On the 787 factories, yes the one at BSC is what one would call two bays wide, the intent was for it to be a single U-shaped assembly process identical to what Boeing used on the B-17 and B29/B-50 programs. There were proven efficiencies with that approach. Also, while “initial” final assembly did move completely to BSC, a little known fact is that the line remained in Everett to rebuild the crappy planes that BSC produced. They would come off the line in South Carolina, be flown to Everett by some very brave ferry crews, and they would go down a “reassembly” line in Everett. As far as I know, that process continues – if it has been shut down, someone please jump in with whatever data is more current.
Another interesting observation is that is was only three or four weeks ago that the company was saying that Calhoun was staying on through the end of the year. Now he is out as of the end of the day next Tuesday, meaning he is actually already gone. Combine that with the new bond issue that Brian West was talking about in early June, and I think the near term crisis is quite dramatically worse than has been revealed. The real question is can the company survive through next January 20th, when the political situation MAY be conducive to a bailout request and the hearings that will go with it?
RTF:
I think its important to note the fact that the 777 uses a U shaped assembly line.
But yes, Charleston can build 787s to rate 14, I was surprised Scott did not respond with that fact.
No I don’t know what is going on in Everett with the 787 tooling, as far as I know they still have some backlog of 787s to fix. 40? I believe some in Charleston and some in Everett on that temp line they had going.
Did not Charleston his rate 12 at one point?
So while a bust for Boeing, its for sure a career opportunity for the 787 assemblers though it looks like they can shift over now (said tongue in cheek)
Separate out space the first thing and dump it. No loss and who needs to go to the Moon?
That is pure stupid. If NASA wants to go there hire Space X.
That said I share your concern about Boeing finances. Worst case its Chapter 11 and that would give them a new start. Someone not long ago said it had to be really dire for the regime to change. Maybe that is it.
One term I object to is bailout. I believe that has always been tax payer money that was returned. I have no objections. I had none during the 2008 crisis for the Auto industry. Yea they got themselves to that point, we have to pay for it.
Boeing is too critical to the economy to fail. Any money would need to have the usual strings attached and an understanding that Boeing get out of those niche industries like Satellites that have no link into the airframe businesses (including the defense ones that do pay, F/A-18/F-15EX etc).
If the Europeans can bail out Airbus on the A400, we sure can do it on the KC-46A, and let em scream. Move to the US and be a citizen and you get a voice (drowned out by lobbyists of course but ….)
Europe has given Airbus (yea free lunch money) what 50 billion over the years? Direct, not even couched as a tax break. 10 billion on the A400 alone?
I continue to believe Boeing has a base for recovery, just like GM and Chrysler did as well as the various Financial Institutions which were the very same ones that took us down in 2008 (started in 2007).
The next 6 months will pretty well tell us where Boeing stands. Recovery of course 5 years to near normal.
I see Airbus talking about under bid contracts as well. Its not a Boeing exclusive though its certainly as high a level as it gets with the production issues showing how bad and something finally getting done (or so we hope).
The big challenge for a Boeing recovery is talent depth on the defense and space side. The way the company worked from roughly 1935 until shortly after the merger, the best paid and most talented engineers tended to work on the defense side of the company. They would be lent into commercial to help them out. That practice basically began in the late 1950s with the 707 program, when it became meaningful to talk about Boeing even having an commercial side. The total number of planes produced by commercial across all programs did not catch up to the total produced as defense products until sometime in the 1990s. This is a thing that I don’t think the general public and even many Boeing employees understand – Boeing was and is a defense contractor first, and a commercial airplane company a distant second.
And, as we have seen with the Starliner, tanker, Minuteman, and a bunch of classified programs, the defense side has become the gang that can’t shoot straight.
Stonecipher started a deliberate war on engineering talent on the defense side, and was very open about that. It began with the North American Aviation piece (owned by Rockwell for a while, and became part of Boeing in 1996). The shuttle program was gutted in terms of its talent.
To reverse things, they would need a program run by someone of the caliber that SpaceX’s has (especially their guidance software team), and they would have to build on that – probably doubling salaries from their current levels as they hire. This would take a lot of money, and several years.
On the commercial side, they would have to suddenly become honest and admit that their production rates on all programs are currently zero. They can’t build a single airplane which when transferred to flight test and delivery is ready for flight test – not one. Until they can relearn how to build just one plane right, the whole notion of building a production system to do that consistently is just a pipe dream.
BRICS business news:
Embraer in talks with Indian government to set up manufacturing facility in India, in return for increased market access.
https://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/brazilian-aerospace-company-embraer-in-talks-with-govt-for-tieup-but-seeks-market-access-for-its-jets/articleshow/112411870.cms
E2 would be an interesting aircraft to FAL in India probably with Mahindra, maybe get a package deal will selling some C390s and offset structure production.
Back in 2019 I spoke at aviation conference in India. “Their” goal is to build wings and fly an aircraft from India. The Airbus C295 gives the FAL and fly out goals with Tata. So Mahindra with E2 wing production and FAL might be the ticket
DP:
Are there even any A220 in India? E1s? I don’t follow that market that deeply other than the bigger players.
I believe there is some Turbo Prop use there. One of the good posts was a guy who flew Dash 8 in that area.
What I have read is that the Indian Bureaucracy can’t get infrastructure built and in this case airports.
So not enough airports and you go with the bigger single aisles (or so I think).
Only wold make sense if there was a market in India for an FAL there.
Not going to sell into China and not sure that E2 in any numbers for the rest of the region.
Embraer should have the capacity to build more as the planned E2-175 is not going to be built.
Checked INDIGO and they fly ATR in some numbers
@ David
For all we know, Embraer already has a clean-sheet design completed for a direct A320 competitor — and they’re now looking for an industrial partner to help them produce it. India is a natural choice — big benefits for both sides. In particular, India will be enamoured of having a counterweight to COMAC within BRICS. And Embraer gets access to the Indian industrial base and market. Meanwhile, the Global South will have more choice as regards non-western aircraft.
Benefits all around.
One of the main problems with India commercial aircraft ecosystem is that there isn’t any really second and third tier suppliers The companies need to make parts (mfg and other processes) within their own factories
Possibly Embraer’s rumored new NB. Embraer is looking for $$$ to derisk the project.
In recent times Boeing was forced to prioritize short term financial goals. Generate FCF, pay debts, satisfy stock holder, pay compensations.
Pushing out investment, squeezing supply chain, employees and customers.
Will that change?
I don’t see that Boeing was forced to, they did and it was before the rest of the issues blew up in their face.
It always, stock holder satisfaction is a hoot as they are large investors in this case and you can never satisfy them.
Nothing wrong with them selling out and those who view long term investment and stability as desirable pickup up the stock.
Fluffing up the stock is a method for a CEO to get more money as they get shares and the more money they are worth the more lucre they get.
Self serving. And the Antithesis for getting rewarded for a well run company
Here’s an interesting article on the similarities between Boeing and Intel — two previous engineering giants who have now completely lost the way.
“Just like Boeing, once upon a time, Intel was the darling of the engineering world. Both companies were the premier tech companies in their day, but those days are long gone now.
“As for Boeing, what can you say about an aircraft manufacturer whose planes crash and doors blow off in mid-air? Oh, and which now appears unable to bring its spaceship, Starliner, down from orbit? I want it on the record that I predicted the Boeing astronauts would end up needing to hitch a ride with a SpaceX Dragon to get back to Earth.
“Intel hasn’t experienced such speculator public failures, but it is tripping over its own feet a lot lately.”
“Why is all this happening? I think it’s the result of poor management decisions and underinvestment in critical manufacturing technologies. In particular, it was how Intel prioritized business strategies and financial performance over engineering excellence.”
“I’m not counting Intel out — not yet, anyway. But a few years ago, I wouldn’t have written Boeing off either, and that was a bad bet. It wouldn’t surprise me if my hope for Intel to get its act together also turns out to be forlorn.”
https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/09/opinion_column_intel/
Motley Fool:
“Boeing’s Going, and Its CEO is Already Gone”
“As a $100 billion blue chip stock, you wouldn’t ordinarily expect a company like Boeing to be a risky bet. However, the days when an investment in Boeing could be considered “safe” are at an end. Boeing hasn’t even been able to afford a dividend since 2020. And why not? According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Boeing hasn’t been profitable since 2018.
“Boeing today is a turnaround play, pure and simple. And an investment in Boeing is essentially a bet that new CEO Kelly Ortberg can fix what his predecessors have broken.”
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/10/boeings-going-and-its-ceo-is-already-gone/
Add “two more years to stabilize, five more years to turnaround”. 🙈
Tell that to S&P/Moody’s/Fitch, the debts are downgraded next.
The runway is not indefinite.
Those same ratings agencies just UPgraded Embraer (fully justified) 👍
I am curious as to where Mr. Ortberg will (very soon) be turning for more cash: another bond offering (risky) or BA’s $10B revolving credit facility (more likely)?
The company has already burned through more than $100M (of someone else’s money) since Mr. Ortberg started his tenure 3 days ago…
Actually, Boeing has has not been able to afford a dividend since sometime around 2007. The company went into talent and resource liquidation mode on day one of the merger with MD, on August 1, 1997. About ten years into that, its ability to make GAAP profits was gone, and if it had converted its balance sheet to GAAP (i.e. expensed R&D costs instead of carrying them as an asset to be written off against big future profits on the programs for which they were incurred), then sometime around 2007 the equity section of the balance sheet went to zero, and it had no GAAP profits. So that’s when it should have stopped paying dividends, at the latest.
The plan for the GE guys from day one was to throw enough money at the stockholders that they would never stop to think about how that money was being generated. Sadly, it worked. This is yet more evidence of the validity of one of Burton Malkiel’s theses in his 1973 book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” that equity markets are just horrible at figuring out the true value of the stock of any company. Or as Alan Greenspan like to put it, the street is just full of “irrational exuberance.” He was being polite.
RTF:
Thanks for the Greenspan quote. One of my favorites though Greenspan was not.
I think the USAF might need ~100 ultra efficient, quiet, ~20t regional transport aircraft for ~ 150 troops and/or freight. By 2031, Pentagon to fully finance development & 6 prototypes. Congress decides who wins the contract. Maybe that’s a solution?
Depends on what margin BA would make on such a contract.
Recent history suggests zero (best case) or negative (most probable).
Plus: does the USAF have the appetite/nerves for another big BA project?
The US “Defense” budget is now over $1 trillion per year, if one includes nuclear weapons. Is it really the taxpayers’ job to bail out BA that way, esp knowing that any profits therefrom would
certainly be privatized?
Airbus gets bailed out all the time. So why would you apply a different standard to Boeing?
@ Vincent
BA has received almost $90B in federal and state tax breaks, grants and loans since 1994.
So, what’s new? 🫣
Nothing, none of you answer the question.
Transworld. Can’t you tell from their posts? They were not around when Airbus was a money pit.
Kind of an interesting puff piece in WSJ, with Alan Mullaly having a bit of praise for new BA CEO Ortberg:
https://archive.ph/fwqhy
Sour grapes
IYKYK
https://x.com/jonostrower/status/1822785619019644976
The first C919s for Air China & China Southern made their maiden flights.
More on the C919 certification process in Europe:
“Following EASA’s positive feedback, COMAC is expected to begin flight testing for the regulator as soon as this year or early next year, meaning its goal of achieving full certification by 2025 remains within reach. ”
https://www.airport-technology.com/news/china-c919-jet-closer-eu-approval/
—
Ryanair will be happy with that 😎
The carrier has previously expressed interest in buying COMAC aircraft.
Wow, if COMAC even get near a 2025 certification from EASA for the C919, that’d be impressive. We’ll see.
It will come as a huge surprise to many that the aircraft has already sailed through the first 3 (of 4) EASA certification steps, and that the next phase is certification flights.
Those recent articles expressing Airbus’ serious attitude to COMAC now make more sense.
One wonders what other regulators will follow EASA’s lead. We can forget the FAA (de facto), but countries like Canada, Brazil, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, etc., may quickly jump onboard.
Multiple Asian countries have already shown that they’re no longer interested in what the FAA thinks (ARJ-21 flying to several countries).
I didn’t know that, myself.
What if the COMAC C919 gains EASA certification before the Boeing MAX-7 and MAX-10?
😉
@ Vincent
Ponder this.
The 777X was at the receiving end of months of EASA involvement, so as to get the plane’s flight control software up to acceptable standards; only after that was ironed out did the plane start certification flights.
The EASA similarly had to get involved in the MAX re-cert process — and, in that regard, the MAX is *still* not up to EASA standards as regards MCAS inputs (due to BA feet-dragging on the MAX-10).
BUT: Did the EASA have to order any aspect of the C919 to be changed before commencement of certification flights?
No?
What does that tell you?
“What if ….”
I can offer a cage of crows for select posters here. 🙂
“BUT: Did the EASA have to order any aspect of the C919 to be changed before commencement of certification flights?
No?
What does that tell you?”
Copying “best of breed” is a good strategy to go forward.
@Vincent
Oh no! I was told CAAC only certified the C919 because the state planners forced them. There’s no way a “reputable” regulator would do that!
Its not happened yet has it?
One aspect that certain people blatantly ignore, the FAA is owned by Boeing per them (and some truth to regulatory capture though lazy and dysfunctional is a much bigger factor)
CAAC is both capture and owned by the Chinese Communist Government. But the C919 that was created under that system needs to have a recognized certification (basically US, Japan, Canada, EASA or Brazil)
So, the US/Canadian/European/Brazil/Japan systems are open but a closed system where the AHJ and the mfg are owned totalitarianismly by a government is better than good, its a gold standard.
The ill logic is enough to make a logical man cry.
I will go out on a limb, C919 might get cert by 2035. Granted they have only given them to a couple of countries and have not begun to fill their own phony orders. Chinese airlines happy to not have to take them.
“I will go out on a limb, C919 might get cert by 2035.”
I’m a bit more optimistic than pathological pessimist. Hehe I can sense the insecurity. According to a source, they’ve laid out a plan. It seems like they’re moving along better than I first thought.
@Vincent
Being two design generations ahead no doubt helps.
no doubts*. Sigh.
WaPo: Boeing’s manufacturing woes long preceded door-panel blowout
https://t.co/SnRXGLtRXU
‘Boeing’s new CEO Robert “Kelly” Ortberg has a long list of critical items on his to do list. At the top? “Convincing federal regulators that Boeing can build safe airplanes.”
https://x.com/ByERussell/status/1822806538643271834
Mr. Ortberg is now 5 days in office — enough time for BA to burn through $175M (of borrowed money).
Despite that blood-letting, we haven’t heard anything of substance from him yet.
I’m wondering if he was golfing this weekend, or trying to assemble a new management team? 🤔
His base salary is $125,000 per month — plus all sorts of extra benefits, of course. One wonders when he’ll start to actually *earn* that…
I have a feeling that Ortberg will not just be more of the same, mistaken as it could be.
Rooting for the guy- will he have the power and will to instigate real change in the corporate culture at BA?
And that is an excellent post.
I am curious how Abalone has access to Ortbergs emails, conversation, phone calls, conferences such that he knows exactly what is or is not going on in the Exec Suite.
When I was training as an EMT, you did not run in and start pumping a persons chest. You assessed, you did triage. Triage in the US sense is, where can I put my time and effort here. That guy is bleeding out, this one can be saved.
Its funny to see the same oh same oh comment and if he does something wrong it will be the same, if he does it all right it will never be enough.
Ya gotta love the logic failure
Good WaPo article on Boeing’s continuing travails. TFTL.
“WaPo: Boeing’s manufacturing woes long preceded door-panel blowout”
They must have accumulated a range of “time-bombs” over the years
waiting to go off. The door blow out appears to be the first visible one to go off and lift the issue from below noise floor into the public’s poked eye.
Ten years ago:
“Several employees from Boeing’s South Carolina plant say they would not fly in the 787s they build based on the quality they see.”
Earlier this year:
“Speaking to the Sunday Times this weekend, he confirmed that Ryanair engineers had found a loose spanner under a floorboard during a pre-flight inspection of a new 737 Max 8 in Dublin. “It’s indicative of a degree of carelessness and poor production standards that don’t belong in a $100m piece of kit,” he said.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/inside-boeing-crisis-whistleblower-death-2926477
“Two good programs, possibly three.”
😉
‘NTSB chief rips Boeing over lack of 737 Max answers’:
“..She [NTSB head Homendy] asked Boeing executive Hector Silva whether an issue like this could happen again, CNN reported. He answered “no” when asked whether he was “100 percent sure a defect will not occur tomorrow” and whether he was “100 percent sure there will never be an unauthorized removal” of a door plug.
Homendy told reporters that an incident like this should not have happened, according to Reuters.
“This should have been caught years before,” she said.
“There have been numerous, numerous Boeing audits, [Federal Aviation Administration] audits, compliance reviews, compliance actions plans, noting a history of an unauthorized work, unauthorized removals,” she added..”
https://thehill.com/business/4817427-ntsb-chief-rips-boeing-737-max-answers/
The blitheness from Boeing contiques to puzzle me.
“..continues..” no edit button, alas.
👇 Reuters:
S&P and Moody’s Downgrade JetBlue Amid $3 Billion *Debt Raise*, Shares Sink
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-08-12/jetblue-to-raise-over-3-billion-through-debt-offerings-shares-fall
‘S&P downgraded JetBlue’s ratings from “B” to “B-“, citing concerns about its financial health.
The agency expects JetBlue’s funds from operations to debt ratio — a leverage ratio used to assess financial risk — to remain in the low single digits through 2025, with negative net cash flow from business operations.
Moody’s downgraded JetBlue’s corporate family rating to “B3” from “B2”, stating that restoring the company’s operating profit and cash flow to levels that would lead to materially stronger credit metrics would require several years.’
‘Fitch Ratings affirmed JetBlue’s rating at “B” with a stable outlook, citing “healthy” liquidity and manageable near-term debt maturities.
It, however, warned that a failure to improve profitability and cash flow in near term could result in negative rating actions.’
A sign of what Mr. Ortberg can expect when he tries to raise more credit within the next few months/weeks…
In BA’s case, a credit downgrade will trigger an automatic 0.5-percentage-point increase in the interest that BA pays on its existing debt. That’s an extra $300M per year interest on the existing debt burden…
TBTF / Uncle Shug-shug
I figured someone needed to break the string of the same oh same oh.
Go Ortberg
Mr. Ortberg went on a school outing to Kansas, yesterday — visited Spirit and WSU, together with Mr. Mollenkopf and Senator Moran.
Tellingly:
“Despite the absence of official statements from Boeing’s leaders, Senator Moran said they were highly impressed with the workforce and reaffirmed Boeing’s commitment to staying in Wichita.”
Not even taking the time / making the effort to issue an official statement?
How very regal.
https://www.kwch.com/2024/08/13/new-boeing-ceo-visits-wichita-tours-spirit-aerosystems-wsu-tech/
With due respect: give Ortberg a break, for now.
There will be plenty of time and due opportunity for criticism, I’m sure.
In view of the Shanahan article that I posted below, I think it’s pretty clear that Ortberg is just a caretaker pope…hired to keep the throne warm until the real replacement moves in.
No harm in pointing out the continuing inaction while the company burns through $35M per day.
That’s an interesting thought, and I guess we’ll see.
Vicnet:
At least a reasonable take on Ortberg. I am less inclined to giving a break and more see what he does over the next 6 months. He will make mistakes, but the overall direction is what is important.
Abalone aka Bryce does not care. Its his standard template. In that he is like Calhoun who never visited the factories never has done the work.
If Ortberg was walking on water Abalone would say it was AI generated,
Its a howl he refers to the Cash burn. Does he think Ortberg came with 50 billion in his pocket he can pay off all the debt the nano second he was in charge?
That is what he is saying. Nor does he care. Its always tearing down. It shows gross ignorance at best.
If we are going to bring religion into this (Pope) Ortberg is not God. Neither is the Pope of course. So what for his position? Of course he is time restricted, he is 64 years old. Part of his job along with the huge other tasks is to get a succession in place. That has nothing to do with how effective he can be. In fact, its an asset that like Mullalry you can burn down the mess and they mess makers know they can do nothing.
Abalone think you just wave your app at a problem and wallah, solved.
I worked with the best framer in the business who could lay out floor plans off the top of his head. It took us 3 weeks to frame a house. Yea stuff takes time. The boss does not say, dig that hole and a hole appears (well it does after a grunt gets a shovel or the backhoe depending on how big a hole is needed) and its time and work to get that hole (and yea, I dug a lot of holes, I am actually the best hole digger on the planet, well I was)
Ortberg may not succeed. Its such a huge mess that alone could sink him and Boeing. Or he may not have the right manager skills for this mess. Time will tell.
Yea, there alwyas is a pea in Abalones mattress (well the pea is in his mind clearly and if Boeing was making 10 billion a year the pea would still be there)
Transworld is — once again — trying to get comments shut down…like he did in the case of the Elliot article of June 10.
That’s the second incidence now in this comments section. It seems that he’s already forgotten the first incidence from just a few days ago (despite apologizing for it).
Looks like he has a deliberate modus operandi: narrative not to his liking –> try to get the show shut down.
Too difficult to find something substantive to say?
—
Scott Hamilton
June 19, 2024
Thanks to TransWorld and Pedro going off topic and violating reader comment rules, comments are now closed.
Hamilton
Reply
TransWorldT
June 20, 2024
My apologiesT to all.
True
“Spirit Aero CEO Shanahan to get $28.5 million ‘golden parachute'”
“Aug 12 (Reuters) – Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N), opens new tab CEO Patrick Shanahan will receive a payout of $28.5 million after the 737 MAX fuselage supplier completes its merger with Boeing, opens new tab, according to a regulatory filing on Monday.
“Shanahan will get a cash payment of $2.3 million, converted Spirit restricted stock units worth $26.1 million and perquisites and benefits worth $45,000 as part of a package known as a “golden parachute”.”
“Boeing chair Steven Mollenkopf asked Shanahan in May if he would be interested in being considered as a candidate for the role of Boeing’s president and chief executive officer, the filing showed.
“Shanahan responded that he would not rule out being in the running for the role, according to the filing.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spirit-aero-ceo-shanahan-get-285-million-golden-parachute-2024-08-12/
Wow. Doubly-sweet, no?
Klown
Nice job to tank the stonk.
Reuters:
Moody’s and S&P doubt Boeing will hit year-end production targets
“Boeing will likely miss a key 737 MAX jet production target in 2024, analysts at rating agencies Moody’s and S&P told Reuters, saying that the company faces challenges as it ramps up its strongest-selling plane. […[
Jonathan Root, lead Boeing analyst at Moody’s, assumes the planemaker will end 2024 producing 32 MAX jets per month, and reach the target of 38 in the second half of 2025. “We remain in a ‘show me’ state of mind,” he said. […]
Meanwhile, lingering uncertainty about Boeing’s aircraft deliveries has airlines more cautious in planning their schedules. Low-cost U.S. carrier Allegiant, a Boeing customer, last month said it expects a “slower delivery cadence” from the planemaker in 2025 and 2026.
When Allegiant placed an order for 50 737 MAX planes in 2022, rejecting offers from traditional supplier Airbus, it expected to take delivery of 10 of the jets in 2023, 24 in 2024 and 16 in 2025. However, it is still waiting for its first MAX aircraft. The plane is now expected in September, the airline said last month.”
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-08-13/moodys-and-s-p-doubt-boeing-will-hit-year-end-production-targets
Meanwhile interns of sell-side analysts revise their spreadsheets accordingly.
Soo-prize, soo-prize, soo-prize..
What an outfit. Ain’t financialization great?
Allegiant have typically been bargain bin purchasers of aircraft – usually getting cheaper 2nd hand planes. The first time they bought new was in 2016, from Airbus, getting cheaper Ceo’s at a time when AB was ramping up on Neo’s.
Now they bought cheap from BA and will operate a dual fleet.
I guess Boeing isn’t too concerned about them cancelling their order and is focusing what slowed production they have on the better paying customers.
“Boeing delivers 43 jets in July, flat year-on-year”
“(Reuters) – Boeing said on Tuesday it delivered 43 commercial jets in July, unchanged from the same month a year earlier when it faced supply chain hurdles, as the U.S. planemaker works to grow aicraft production under new CEO Kelly Ortberg.”
“After adjustments to reflect the backlog, Boeing reported adjusted net orders for the month of 72.
“That brought Boeing’s gross order total so far this year through July 31 to 228. After removing cancellations and conversions, Boeing posted a net total of 186 orders since the start of 2024.
“Following further accounting adjustments, Boeing reported adjusted net orders of 98 airplanes so far this year.
“Year to date through July 31, Boeing delivered 218 airplanes, including 166 MAX jets.
“Boeing’s European rival Airbus delivered 77 planes in July.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-delivers-43-jets-july-150525757.html
—
Of the 31 MAXs delivered in July, one wonders how many were from the line vs. from the parking lot…🤔
Further, YTD:
42 cancellations and 88 ASC606 deletions.
Interesting. So BA only booked 72 gross order, of which 57 are 737 MAX. Sort of confirms that KE’s “order” is more likely a letter of intent like commitment.
BA net order comes to just 186 YTD.
I saw “letter of intent” on several news sites vis-à-vis the Korean order.
As the name suggests, it’s a meaningless document, without any contractual value…as shown by the IAG LOI for 200 MAXs from a few years ago.
What amazes me is that the two ratings agencies in the article linked by Pedro say that there are “no plans” to
cut BA’s rating, despite the newly-noted prooduction
shortfall.
Uh, WTF does it take to do so, then? Smells like ’08:”the fundamentals remain sound..”, as the moribund behemoth sails off the friggin’ cliff..
yeesh
Adding: what on Earth makes BA stock presently worth $168 per share?
Like some commenters here — and many analysts — ratings agencies look at the huge BA backlog, see hundreds of billions of dollars worth of *revenue*, and *assume* that this is going to translate into tens of billions worth of *earnings*. Why they continue to do this is a mystery: they should be able to see that BA hasn’t generated a penny of earnings in the past 5 years, despite $350B of revenue in that period. The “TBTF narrative” probably plays a role — together with plain old denialism.
Don’t forget: the ratings agencies *completely* missed the SVB debacle — for example, Moody’s had SVB at rating A right up to the bank’s collapse.
It was noted that some of the Aircraft were for China so yea some, still deliveries and still revenue when delivered. By the time those are gone the line will have picked up steam again.
And while off BCA, BD is a huge aspect of this and they sold 90 of the wildinly successful AH-64 to Poland. Its worth contrasting that to Australia dumped the Tiger (and HN-90)_ because it are gross failures (as have a number of other nations)
But Mt Everest is still under the Princesses mattress. No solid gold cloud that does not have coal in it at least in his mind.
‘Boeing Is the Canary in the Trickle-Down Coal Mines’:
“..The most tragic thing about all of this is that Boeing had more than enough money to invest in a strong union workforce that hewed to the multiple safety redundancies that the company used to bake into its manufacturing process. It could have spent enough money to ensure that every plane with the Boeing name printed on its side was perfectly safe — the same way Boeing had ensured that rock-solid safety record for 70 years before the company began cutting corners — and still turned a profit. How do I know this? Because over just the last ten years, Boeing has returned some $59 billion dollars in profit to shareholders, in the form of $20 billion in dividends and the rest in stock buybacks. That’s tens of billions of dollars that used to go to wages, benefits, and safety precautions that the company instead chose to hand off to investors with no strings attached. All Boeing got in return for those offloaded profits was an artificially high stock price that didn’t reflect the increasingly poor quality of the product the company was selling.”..”
https://medium.com/civic-skunk-works/boeing-is-the-canary-in-the-trickle-down-coal-mines-fe05e1094dc7
Yea, Calhoun is gone. You can’t to a re-run. The Titanic sank. you ain’t getting it back. Uhhh captain, maybe we should have not been doing 21 knots. Thank you First Officer obvious, concentrate on getting the lifeboats launched.
Get over it and lets see what Ortberg does in the next 6 months to a year.
Well said.
Sorry @Scott
What have I done wrong on this thread???
Mr. Hamilton’ s quote above was from June 23, when commenter “Transworld” got comments (to a very interesting article) shut down after continually directing personal barbs at you…like he’s currently doing again (at me).
The quote doesn’t relate directly to this thread…other than as a background to show a continuing trend of rule violation.
Why that commenter feels such an uncontrolable need to attack other commenters is unclear to me…I’ve only been commenting here for a few months. Any theories?
Juggle my memory, is this not Scotts site?
I sure don’t try to speak for him.
What is funny is the narative went.
Boeing will never get the MAX re-certified in China.
Then when Mongolian Air flew a MAX into China iot was, oh, that is a foreigh carrier that is allowed. Really? Non certified aircrarft are not allowed.
Then China passed the MAX for flgiht, but that was a tehcnaily, they are not going to fly it.
then they started to activate the parked MAX in China.
then they started taking delivereis of the stored MAX they had bought and parked in the US.
And now its, well they came out of Parked. Hmm, a MAX parked is different than a non parked (assuming they all have the wheels on the ground they are parked).
Can you imagine the heads exploding when China decides it needs more aircraft than it can currently get from Airbus and COMAC is pie in the sky. Then China knows a good thing when they see it and get a good deal on the MAX? Phew, Mt Helens kaboom pales in comparisons. End of the world.
And China has not reported on the obvious Pilot suicide on the -800
China is obligated to issue a preliminary report in a year and its been two years when the espousers said they would do it in a year. Right.
That is the nice thing about an AHJ being under the complete thumb of the Communist Government, inconvenient truths are permanently buried.
Could it possibly be that China is not the Lang of Shangri La? (sp, I did not look up the spelling on that ref so it could be wrong)
Your story is about secondary spin from interested parties
and less so about reported primary motivations.
“Boeing Finds New Issue in 737 Electrical Systems”
“SEATTLE- Boeing faces a new setback with an electrical issue affecting its 737 aircraft. Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein warns this problem could delay deliveries, impacting Boeing’s production timeline.”
“The issue centers on junction boxes, crucial components for routing electrical cables through planes. Boeing has identified a “nonconforming component” in three delivered aircraft, leading to their grounding.”
“Production at Boeing’s Renton, Washington factory has slowed due to this problem. The company states it will perform necessary rework on affected planes before delivery, emphasizing that production hasn’t completely halted, reported Fortune.”
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/08/14/boeing-finds-new-issue-in-737-electrical-systems/
Fixed, aircraft are now operating.
Did BoA analyst Epstein lower the TP and move to neutral??
Story first broke by King5:
“On Wednesday, internal Boeing sources told KING 5 there was a slowdown in Renton’s 737-MAX assembly line because of defective electrical junction boxes.
Executive Director of Boeing’s engineering union Ray Goforth confirmed in a statement that there was a problem with the junction boxes and it slowed or stopped production. However, he was unaware of how significant the slowdown was.”
https://www.king5.com/article/tech/science/aerospace/boeing/problematic-parts-discovered-boeing-passenger-planes-renton/281-ffeec885-aa8d-4c37-9d6b-bb1507a518a1
Fortune report:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-discovered-set-problems-737s-163902731.html
So, despite all the controversy, bad press, Congressional hearings, NTSB hearings, DOJ indictments, a disintegrating Spirit Aero, etc., BA is *still* not managing to get its QC in order *before* problems arise.
3 delivered aircraft grounded, multiple undelivered aircraft needing rework, a slowing-down of the production line (again)…nothing has changed.
When you think of and treat your employees as “laborers”,
that’s what tends to happen. A happy employee is a conscientious employee-
Let’s see how the negotiations w/ the Union go.
Today is the first day of full-day bargaining.
Update on IAM 751/Boeing negotiations.
https://x.com/IAM751/status/1823834506417332502
Sorry there’s no change in TP.
What is “TP” ?
Target price
Just saw Scotts post so comments from myself are ceased though reply is still working
Further breakdown of BA’s delivery figures for July.
Of the 31 MAXs delivered, 5 went to China and 3 went to Air India Express — so that’s (at least) 8 from the parkling lot.
That means just 23 from the line.
Taking just 9 fuselages per month from Spirit, but delivering 23 from the line, implies a whole lot of fuselages sitting in storage at BA.
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/boeing-july-2024-orders-deliveries
Further: 5 787s delivered.
Of the remaining widebodies, 2 were KC-46As and 3 were freighters. There was also a narrowbody P-8A in the mix.
@uwe
Confirmed. (Sort of)
Latest update from NASA
(Two Years’ Vacation in 21th Century)
BBC: Astronauts could be stuck in space for eight months, Nasa says
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clywdwp451vt
More NASA blaming expected here …
“The vehicle was designed for the wrong duty cycle resulting in incorrect thermal analysis.
It’s fairly unprecented to have such a critical component on a already crewed flight vehicle, that has completely incorrect analysis, resulting in significant thermal design violations.
The temperature bounds for these seals is very known. What is unknown is how much those bounds can be violated further if at all, on a vehicle in orbit where the current state and degradation can’t be inspected, with significant temperature violations prior in the mission, while still guaranteeing sufficient performance/reliability to carry crew.
https://x.com/theJordanNoone/status/1823408375511834859
“Additional comments on how Boeing’s Starliner got in this predicament.
Clearly a breakdown between Boeing in-house and external engineering teams where the thrusters were provided the wrong design criteria. The thrusters, and their troublesome valve seals, were tested and designed “correctly”, but for the wrong conditions.
Most likely traces back to the reported breakdown in communication between Boeing and their component vendors. Boeing didn’t want to pay vendors for design changes.
Curious if the root is someone at Boeing accidentally not relaying vehicle updates to vendors, or if it was a conscious decision to avoid paying for change requests.
https://x.com/theJordanNoone/status/1823421499686183220
Speechless!
Oops late to edit.
This is probably not related to the Starliner. Apologies
Analysis: Which US-Based Airlines Have Deferred Airbus Deliveries & Why?
“In the past few months, struggling United States carriers, including Frontier Airlines, JetBlue, and Spirit Airlines, have deferred aircraft deliveries in an effort to preserve their liquidity.”
https://simpleflying.com/us-airlines-airbus-delivery-deferrals-analysis/
with their current backlog and strong interest
deferrals ( and even cancellations ) are an entertaining game of self-playing Tetris for Airbus.
with the majority of FAL lines now fully A321 capable …
Interesting that deferrals are currently concentrated among US LCCs / budget carriers.
One wonders if/when the phenomenon will spread further.
One also wonders where BA’s large numbers of recent ASC606 deletions are concentrated.
@Abalone
BA is carrying out its own deferral:
Allegiant expected to take delivery of their 737 MAX from 2023, but they still haven’t received a single one.
“When Allegiant placed an order for 50 737 MAX planes in 2022, rejecting offers from traditional supplier Airbus, it expected to take delivery of 10 of the jets in 2023, 24 in 2024 and 16 in 2025. However, it is still waiting for its first MAX aircraft. The plane is now expected in September, the airline said last month.”
Waiting for Godot [Boeing]
Sigh.
“An MIT-trained aerospace engineer whose sister died on ET 302 *challenges WSJ opinion writer who blamed pilots* for the second @Boeing MAX crash.”
https://x.com/airlinewriter/status/1823821503978463708
“Detail by @pgcornwell !
A flight attendant aboard Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 blowout also worked as an Amazon Flex driver
That day, she woke at 5 a.m., worked 2 delivery shifts, then headed to PDX airport around 2:30 p.m., ready to save some passengers”
Seattle Times:
https://t.co/7kS318stIL
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1823885089937506369
‘From this flight attendant’s NTSB interview:
“That’s when I lift up my head and I saw the hole and I just started like shaking.”
She re-seated the mom whose teen son was being pulled out, checked on an unaccompanied child and comforted a girl having an anxiety attack.’
“Justice Department defends Boeing plea deal against criticism by 737 Max crash victims’ families”
“DALLAS (AP) — The Justice Department is defending a plea deal it struck with Boeing over planes that crashed and killed 346 people, saying in a court filing Wednesday that it lacks evidence to prosecute the company for more serious crimes.
“Prosecutors said if the plea deal is rejected and the case goes to trial, they will not offer testimony or evidence about the causes of two crashes in 2018 in Indonesia and 2019 in Ethiopia, nor will they charge any Boeing individuals.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/justice-department-defends-boeing-plea-235233420.html
—
The tail trying to wag the dog.
One would expect such behavior in a banana republic — not in a developed country.
Reading that Calhoun is going to meet face to face with one of the whistle-blowers.
Wondering what Calhoun will do? Give the guy a one hour lecture on the importance of shareholder value, free cash flow, and stock buybacks? Then offer the guy a couple of Boeing t-shirts and a coffee mug?
Maybe the dude can get Calhoun talking about his 20 year bromance with Jack Welsh?
Can we get a transcript of this meeting?
I get a kick out of hearing Calhoun evade all personal responsibility for the hot steaming pile he created.
In Canada, Westjet has 16 737 damaged in a hail storm. How common is this (similar number of commercial aircraft put out of service)??
Images:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GU9xBo8XAAAu-jW?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GU9xIVGWMAAiyo6?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GU9xL24WoAAT8nE?format=jpg&name=large
What does this mean??
Rejected by BA?
“The monthly 737 program production rate mismatch between Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems has created a buffer of nearly 130 fuselages awaiting shipment from the supplier to the manufacturer, an Aviation Week analysis shows.
https://x.com/AviationWeek/status/1824041346002202810
More details:
“Stored fuselages in this location = 83 on Feb. 29, the day before the new inspections kicked off at Spirit AeroSystems Wichita. By Aug 7, the total was pushing 130. Buffer for the eventual rate ramp from ~25 to 38 737s/mo, Spirit says. (Spirit is producing 31 shipsets/mo.)
https://x.com/AvWeekSean/status/1824120898376343638
“a buffer”. Love, love the euphemistic speech.
nice
Indeed.
“Buffer” is the new name for “stored rejects” 🙈
Yeah, I remember Confucius saying that at some
point a Rectification of Names
becomes necessary.
Rhetoric and reality are far apart now.. and farther every day. They’re not “buffers”, bros.
@ Pedro
Stored fuselages = “Money in the bank”…right? 🙈
This article contains an aerial photo taken above Spirit Aero’s outdoor storage…behold and ponder!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-06/boeing-737-panel-blowout-under-scrutiny-in-marathon-ntsb-hearing
Pay-wall free
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/boeing-737-panel-blowout-under-scrutiny-in-marathon-ntsb-hearing/ar-AA1oiJTN?ocid=BingNewsVerp
from the bylines there ( ~Aug. 1 ) :
https://www.google.com/search?q=FAA+Suggests+Boeing+787+Landing+Gears+Need+To+Be+Inspected
gift that keeps on giving.
“[O]nly* aircraft with numbers Line Numbers (LN) 6 through 1168 were affected” 🙃
NASA and Boeing in trouble over astronauts stuck in ISS
“On June 6, it took two attempts for the astronauts to dock to the ISS, when five of the 28 thrusters used to control the Starliner’s trajectory failed. […]
Moreover, if the thrusters don’t respond to controls when de-orbiting and pushing back to Earth, what would become of Wilmore and Williams?”
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/08/09/nasa-and-boeing-in-trouble-over-astronauts-stuck-in-iss_6712017_23.html
“Just launch it”
—
And we learned today that the spacesuits used in the BA capsule are not compatible with the suits used in the SpaceX capsule…thereby complicating the plan to rescue the astronauts with a Dragon capsule in Feb.
NASA worked itself into a right corner by greenlighting the launch of that piece of junk, despite its evident pre-launch malfunctions.
Fools rush in…
“And we learned today that the spacesuits used in the BA capsule are not compatible with the suits used in the SpaceX capsule …”
And probably incompatible with Soyuz/Russian suits too.
Ever upcoming issue when letting kids play unsupervised.
Airbus has more jets in service than Boeing. Confirmed??
NYTimes:
“Four years ago, Airbus scored a major victory: For the first time in its history, more of its passenger planes were flying around the world than those made by its rival, Boeing. Airbus has only tightened its grip on the market since.”
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/boeing-faces-steep-climb-in-catching-up-to-airbus/
Air China, China Southern set to receive first C919s as flight tests wrap up
“Comac has completed flight testing for the first C919 aircraft to be delivered to state-owned carriers Air China and China Southern.
The first Air China C919 – carrying test registration B-002M – completed tests on 10 August, according to a post on Chinese social media by state-owned aerospace giant AVIC. On 3 August, flight tests for China Southern’s first C919 (B-002L) took place.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/air-china-china-southern-set-to-receive-first-c919s-as-flight-tests-wrap-up/159533.article
“Recent data shows the C919 fleet has completed 3,133 commercial flights, transporting nearly 420,000 passengers as of August 3. This operational success demonstrates the aircraft’s reliability and performance in real-world conditions.”
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/08/12/comac-c919-eyes-new-international-orders-easa-certification/
Recent data shows Boeing delivered around 35 B737 Max to China airlines this year
Coming soon:
The end of an era.
Does it take like a year for BA to deliver “35” 737 MAX??
The C919 is looming large, with denial the M.O.
in many quarters.
Will it, or the Boeing MAX-7 / MAX-9 get EASA
certification first? C919 is the thin end of the CN aerospace wedge..
A recent one is 5.5 year old upon delivery. I guess a sizable chunk of compensation is sent out to the customer.
Reuters: “Boeing delivered 22 aircraft to China between the start of 2024 and the end of April” including 777 & 787.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/westjet-shuts-down-fledgling-freighter-network
“Boeing’s New CEO Wants to ‘Reset’ Relations With Biggest Union”
“(Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg met with union representatives during his first week on the job and said he’s “committed to reset” the company’s relationship with workers as the US planemaker heads into crucial labor negotiations next month.
“Ortberg told the presidents of Boeing’s largest workers union and another labor group that he’s seeking “a new contract where we can come together to build a strong future for our employees in the region,” he said in a memo to Boeing employees that was shared by the company.”
“Avoiding a potentially crippling strike is one of the top tasks facing Ortberg as he takes over as Boeing’s CEO. The company is in the “final phase” of contract negotiations, according to the memo, with labor groups representing more than 33,000 workers. ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-16/boeing-s-new-ceo-wants-to-reset-relations-with-biggest-union/
—
Very simple, Mr. Otberg: these employees want a 40% pay increase, plus re-instatement of a whole variety of benefits.
That’s going to cost BA a LOT of money…but it will be money well spent.
Time to look into borrowing a few more billion dollars…soon.
Remember Wimpy’s possibly-fitting comment:
“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
The negotiations with IAM 751 should be interesting- and telling.
“Very simple, Mr. Otberg: these employees want a 40% pay increase, plus re-instatement of a whole variety of benefits.
That’s going to cost BA a LOT of money”
the real question, where are they in the labor grade and max rate? So take grade 10 max rate of $50.12 x 1.40 is $70 an hour straight time or $143K before overtime. Can any aircraft company afford that and be competitive and profitable?
https://www.iam751.org/?zone=/unionactive/private_view_article.cfm&HomeID=452936&page=Information
As it happens, this may (partially) answer your question:
Boeing wants to do more R&D in India, and make use of more Indian suppliers.
https://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/boeings-turnaround-flight-may-connect-india-for-rd/articleshow/112575077.cms
Are customers like UA/WN etc willing to pay more??
Ryanair certainly won’t pay more.
This is going to give COMAC a helping hand in securing new sales: lower price, higher quality.
So let’s take it one step further…..10 hours a week over time at 1.5
$70 x 1.5 is $105 x 10 is $1,050 x 50 weeks $52.k……..total gross pay $195k
as a comparison Average annual salary in Tata Aerospace Systems is INR 6.7 lakhs or about $8k USD
“Boeing — Proudly Made in India”
😂
Interesting that its European competitor can make a tidy profit while paying (generous) European salaries to its motivated personnel.
Then again: Europeans don’t have to struggle with healthcare costs, which are paid for via their taxes.
“Then again: Europeans don’t have to struggle with healthcare costs, which are paid for via their taxes.”
That is not correct.
Public Healthcare financing in Germany in ~50:50 employer/employee
income dependent rate. Family and unemployed included.
Which is another way of saying the same thing: it’s payed for via taxes.
But the savings are over 50% on single payer national health plans.
“Which is another way of saying the same thing: it’s payed for via taxes.”
Wrong. State organized and supervised but not TAX.
the concept is “insurance” with capability dependent rates.
unemployment benefits just like pensions work the same way.
TAX: income, sparkling wine, inheritance, property purchase, vehicle, fuel/heating …
VAT is its own domain.
And who pays the taxes. There are only two – You and Me.
Same thing in all the world.
“And who pays the taxes. There are only two – You and Me.”
You and me, and everyone else with income.
But also corporations.
The point is that the healthcare system is subsidized by the government (from tax money), thereby keeping premiums affordable. It’s a solidarity-based system.
Gross salaries in the US appear large, and taxes are low — creating the illusion of prosperity. But a large portion of take-home pay needs to be spent on healthcare and education. As a result, disposable income takes a major hit.
It would appear that Boeing workers now want to be adequately compensated for this hit — which has mushroomed as a result of high inflation. That implies a major hike in gross salary, plus other benefits.
US health care is like a scam: 17.3% of GDP!
“US health care is like a scam: 17.3% of GDP!”
For Germany it is 12.7% ( no idea if it covers the same items )
I just realized a burger at a burger joint is like $12 to $14 near Redmond, $4 for a pop.
In WA, the minimum wage was $11.00 in 2017, $11.50 in 2018, $12.00 in 2019, and $13.50 in 2020. In 2024, the minimum wage is $16.28 per hour.
Sorry actually $13 to $14.
@David
Did you read what it takes to get to the max level at grade 10?
It starts at $25 and goes up $.50 per 6 months, so a dollar increase every year – which means to get to that rate, you need to be there 25 YEARS.
25 years.
How many left/were encouraged to leave during the pandemic period? Isn’t this the problem with BA now? A shortage of experienced workers?
You make it sound like employees left, right and center are making $143k.
BTW – as I understand it, that 40% is spread out over a few years.
The (at least) 40% pay hike demand is spread over 3 years.
I heard 8% a year, but I’ll defer…
“The union is demanding…a pay hike of at least 40 percent over three years, as well as better benefits, including in health insurance and pensions.”
https://yen.com.gh/business-economy/264499-new-boeing-ceo-pledges-reset-relations-machinists/
—
I’m just quoting what I’m reading in the press.
Do you agree that 40% — even if spread over 3 years — would be a major financial/commercial headache for BA?
‘Do you agree that 40% — even if spread over 3 years — would be a major financial/commercial headache for BA?’
This is also what’s being reported:
‘The union’s lowest paid workers start at $15.74 an hour and max out at $23.74; the union’s highest paid workers start at $26 an hour and max out at $51.44 an hour. Pay scales are slightly higher for late day and overnight shifts. ‘
https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/07/17/boeing-workers-signal-support-for-strike-if-contract-talks-fail/
As to your question, I would put it this way;
If union members get compensated, feeling that they are valued by the company and in return – ship every aircraft out the door with the utmost attention to detail, as fast as possible;
Can Boeing not afford to pay them?
All they’ve seen is take, take, take, from the C-suite guys. Dividends. Buybacks. Pressure. Billions gone, while they were asked to give. Just like the company did not invest in taking care of its product lineup, it didn’t take care of another resource; human capital.
And now the company is in the shape it’s in.
Ortberg needs to get the unions on side, needs everyone working together. Like they used to.
I’d be a little p.o.’ed too.
There’re tricks they can play with: call it a rectification bonus or whatever and write it off as a one-time charge. Rinse and repeat. Unfortunately it’ll be negative for near-term FCF and worsen its liquidity.
I believe it’s estimated meeting the union’s demand would increase 1.5% to 2% in production costs per plane. Can BA afford it? What’s the alternative??
Thanks for that clarifying comment, Frank P.
@David
But just for comparison’s sake, we should measure that against someone else….hmmmmm. Can you think of someone? Let’s compare it to David Calhoun.
IIRC in 2020, when BA was laying off 20,000 workers, Dave took home some $25 million.
Now, if he worked 40hr reg + 10 o/t hours (at 1,5x), that translates to 55 hours a week.
52 weeks (because Dave is such a good employee, working from his boating house in New England, he NEVER took vacation or time off) makes 2,860 hours worked, per year. Let’s say he checked his emails on the weekend too, so we’ll round it up to 3,000 hours per year.
$8,333 per hour.
What a guy. He must really be worth it, huh? Him and West and all the rest of the gang. Turned Boeing into the great company that it is.
Earned every dollar of it…
———————-
To add to it:
That $8,333 per hour rate, translates to ~166 veterans at your level 10, with 25 years seniority.
Which is worth more? David Calhoun, running the company into the ground, or 166 experienced airplane guys and gals?
What does BA need right now? Davey – or them?
Don’t forget all the stock that Dollar Dave got, plus private use of BA corporate jets.
—
There’s no doubt that the union workers deserve more — and, as far as I’m concerned, they deserve at least what they’re demanding.
But it’s going to cost BA a monstrous amount of money to give it to them…and, as we know, BA can’t cough up that kind of money at present.
You know, if you’ve seen the television program ‘Billions’, they have a character in there named ‘Dollar Bill’. I think you’re really disrespecting the character and moral fortitude of ‘Dollar Bill’ by likening him to ‘Dollar Dave’.
(People who have seen the series, will get a laugh)
Another defection away from Boeing:
“Malaysia Airlines, Airbus in Talks for New Narrowbody Aircraft Order”
“The airline is expected to announce the order for up to 25 aircraft. It will be the first time that Malaysia Airlines will opt for narrowbody aircraft from Airbus. It already operates a fleet of widebody Airbus aircraft including the A330-200, A330-300, and A350-900.”
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/08/15/malaysia-airlines-airbus-talks-for-new-order/
The airline’s NB fleet currently comprises 737s.
Wow. “Commonality”??? Head explodes.
Looks like the boot sale is starting:
“Exclusive-Boeing, Lockheed Martin in talks to sell rocket-launch firm ULA to Sierra Space”
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Boeing and Lockheed Martin are in talks to sell their rocket-launching joint venture United Launch Alliance to Sierra Space, two people familiar with the discussions said.
“A deal could value ULA at around $2 billion to $3 billion, the sources said.
“A deal to sell ULA, a major provider of launch services to the U.S. government and a top rival to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, would mark a significant shift in the U.S. space launch industry as ULA separates from two of the largest defense contractors to a smaller, privately held firm.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-boeing-lockheed-martin-talks-192615885.html
This deal could put $1B – $1.5B in Boeing’s kitty — enough to cover 4-6 weeks of cashburn at the recent rate.
Calhoun’s biggest failure was….being Calhoun.
He is, was, and always will be a Jack Welsh trained cost cutter. It’s what he knows, it’s what he does. The chance of him ever fixing anything was zero from day 1. The tragedy is that Boeing corporate governance has been so laughably weak under it’s succession of do-nothing, rubber-stamping, gimme my $350k for nothing and lemme get back on the links boards, that somebody actually thought Calhoun was right for the job. It finally took a near revolution by the airlines to force the board to admit that the company should be run by someone who actually knows something about aviation.
And that dude got paid $33,000,000 last year.. to- in practice-
destroy his own employer and its resources.
Remarkable. Is this a Great Country, or what?
chump change to Starbucks
“Why new Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol is worth the $85 million and remote California office” “He’s getting $10 million in cash and $75 million in equity awards when he arrives to Starbucks on Sept. 9. If certain targets are hit, Niccol could earn around $117 million in total compensation in his first year.”
I’m glad Our Alaskan Correspondent has confidently informed us that the COMAC C919 [“Comm’nists!”] will not achieve EASA certification before 2035. That’s movement, anyway- since that commenter’s previous, categorical claim was that it would “never happen”.
Thank you, sir; and we’ll see how it goes.
A group of Aerospace Executives, experts from University of Michigan, former FAA officials, we designed a massive plan to help Boeing.
There’s already such a “plan”: it’s called Chapter 11.
🫣
what about Boeing selling off defense and space to raise cash and lower debt
It’s already trying to sell part of its space division (ULA) — see my post above.
BUT: which company is interested in acquiring loss-making divisions from Boeing? And how is the gargantuan debt burden to be divided among BCA and BDS? Who’ll buy a debt-ridden division? (apart from BA acquiring Spirit, of course — a clear example of the blind leading the lame).
I believe we are at the dawn of a disruption of the energy system. BA can’t afford to take a decade to turnaround its business!
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/boeings-new-ceo-may-need-a-decade-to-truly-turn-things-around-says-one-veteran-leader-141250966.html
10 years = $30B of debt interest at present levels.
It also corresponds to $360B in burned cash as present burn rates…and that’s *before* giving a 40% pay hike to a strike-ready union workforce.
Good luck with that 🫣
Second paragraph: should read $120B…not 360.
worker compensation:
how much in relation to overall “money slosh” at Boeing?
Has Boeing drained the pensions funds under their control already?
Another headache for McB:
“Southwest Boeing 737 MAX descends to 150 feet above Tampa Bay”
“On July 14th, 2024, a Southwest Airlines 737 MAX approaching Tampa International Airport (TPA) experienced an unusual descent while flying over the waters of Tampa Bay. Automatic tracking data revealed a significant drop in altitude, with the aircraft dipping to a mere 150 feet just four miles from landing.
“This stands in stark contrast to the expected altitude of around 1,600 feet at that point in the approach. The sudden and unexpected descent triggered an immediate response from Air Traffic Control (ATC).
“The Boeing 737 MAX 8 with registration N8841L was operating flight WN425 from Columbus to Tampa.”
“This incident comes on the heels of a series of concerning occurrences involving Southwest Airlines 737 MAX aircraft in recent months. In June, another Southwest 737 dipped to a concerning 500 feet while approaching Oklahoma City.
“Additionally, an April incident saw a Southwest 737 descend to a mere 400 feet above the ocean off the Hawaiian coast during poor weather conditions.”
https://airlive.net/news/2024/08/19/southwest-boeing-737-max-descends-to-150-feet-above-tampa-bay/
—
“Most scrutinized plane in history”
“Just ship it”
Once again, it’s fortuitous that these incidents occurred at a US carrier — had they occurred outside the US, they’d have been automatically blamed on “foreign pilots”.
Southwest has a fleet of 239 MAX-8s: these incident rates are impressive for a fleet of that size.
Whoa.
And on a related note: here’s a charming ATC voice recording of the recent ordeal aboard Southwest 1578 — another MAX 8.
Of note:
– Smoke in cockpit and cabin shortly after takeoff;
– Pilot reports leaking oxygen mask;
– ATC complains about “scratchy radio” — can’t understand pilot on multiple occasions;
– After landing, APU can’t be started.
The gift that keeps on giving.
https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/trending/smoke-in-the-cockpit-after-takeoff-southwest-boeing-737-max8-real-atc/
Interesting.
Boeing grounds 777X test fleet after failure of key engine mounting structure
https://x.com/theaircurrent/status/1825648379239821562
“A similar finding was made on its two other active test aircraft, prompting a halt in test flying for the massive Boeing twin-engine jetliner…”
https://x.com/AirlineFlyer/status/1825649329618477421
“After a Friday test flight in Hawaii with one of its 777-9 test aircraft, Boeing discovered one of the aircraft’s engine thrust links was completely severed. Others were found to be cracked on other test aircraft, grounding the fleet.
https://x.com/jonostrower/status/1825648917171810522
I thought there are inspections before each flight.
“2035”??? 😭
So what comes first, Comac C919 EASA cert or 777x EASA cert?
I wonder how that nacelle heat solution for the MAX
is coming along, as well. “9-12 months” was the last
official word I’m aware of from that OEM.
..and the check’s in the Mail, and I won’t..
Is it a design flaw? Or a manufacturing issue??
@ Pedro
Easiest scapegoat at this juncture will be to blame it on sub-spec titanium from a foreign supplier.
Behind the scenes, there’s probably a panic-ridden attempt to review/amend the basic design.
Next question: how many other parts of the plane are compromised…but not yet discovered?
Fuselage rip-out; uncommanded pitch change; major software modification required (at behest of EASA); broken/cracked engine mount — this bird really is following in the illustrious footsteps of BA’s other current Frankenprograms.
Bloomberg:
The component “didn’t perform as designed,” the company said in a statement.
“The grounding could push 777X delivery expectations to the right, and potentially into 2026,” Ken Herbert. an analyst with RBC Capital, told clients in a note Monday. He predicted the 777X program would likely encounter a “prolonged approval period.”
When will Tim Clark give AB/RR a call?
How many flight hours have the test frames accumulated?
The one with a severed link is WH003, cracks are also found in WH001 & 002.
AW:
“In the run-up to the TIA, the four 777-9 test aircraft had accumulated 3,500 hr. over 1,200 flights during a campaign that began soon after the January 2020 inaugural flight.”
I’m looking around and it’s pretty amazing that it’s like a new version of the “third world pilots” is invented to cope.
I wonder if there’s a new scrutiny of any deficiency of the testing and validation process.
@ Pedro
So, on average, that’s just 300 flight cycles each — and most of those will have been relatively short and light.
Amazing that a relatively simple — but extremely critical — part can completely fail after such short, mild usage.
More egg on the FAA’s face: the plane only recently received TIA…and straight away a major issue surfaces.
An image of 777X’s engine thrust link.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVclz7laMAEnokF?format=jpg&name=large
@Abslone
The fact that it happened on more than one aircraft tells me it as insufficient design. Probably to save weight.
You don’t want your engines falling of wing
Btw…who is doing the nacelle design?
“Boeing discovered one of the aircraft’s engine thrust links was completely severed. Others were found to be cracked on other test aircraft”
Another triumph of design / manufacture from our illustrious OEM.
Only a few test flights per frame, and a vital structure already “completely severed”…?
Tim Clark will be delighted with this news.
BA: “Tim, the engine works very well in hot and harsh conditiions — but it has a bit of a tendency to fall off the wing”.
Tim: “But I’ll still be getting my planes in 2026, right?”
BA: “Ehm…”
Cracking and overt failure of these 777-X thrust links seems pretty consequential.
“we got this.”
My engineering powers tell me the risk of an engine falling off the aircraft is a big deal
Engine detachment:
First: the aircraft will go into an unrecoverable roll and yaw, due to the weight/thrust imbalance of suddenly losing 11 tons of engine from one wing. A crash of the airframe will rapidly follow.
Second: an 11-ton engine will come hurtling out of the sky at high speed…and, for example, land on a school.
BA narrowly avoided a catastrophe here.
The ElAl 747F crash in Amsterdam showed us what happens in such a scenario.
Re: El Al 1862
“Soon after the turn, at 18:27, above the Gooimeer, a lake near Amsterdam, witnesses on the ground heard a sharp bang and saw falling debris, a trail of smoke, and a momentary flash of fire on the right wing while the aircraft was climbing through 1,950 m (6,400 ft). Engine No. 3 (right wing, nearest to fuselage) separated from the right wing of the aircraft, shot forward, damaged the wing slats, then fell back and struck engine No. 4 (right wing, farthest from fuselage), tearing it from the wing. The two engines fell away from the aircraft, also ripping out a 10 m (33 ft) stretch of the wing’s leading edge.”
Also CI358
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_358
“The subsequent investigation revealed that the number 3 engine and its pylon had separated from the aircraft and struck the number 4 engine, breaking it off the wing as well. A more detailed investigation revealed that the pylon midspar fittings, which attach the pylon to the lower portion of the wing front spar, had failed. The search for the number 3 engine and its pylon, which landed in the sea, took several months.
Information from the investigation of this crash [CI358] and the nearly identical crash of El Al Flight 1862 ten months later resulted in Boeing ordering pylon modifications to every 747 in use.”
“First, it’s another indication of ongoing quality issues at Boeing. Second, it raised the prospect of a delay in the production and deliveries of the 777X. Third, it could potentially have cash implications for the company — the last thing it needs right now. Finally, customer concerns about the new plane could lead to a delay in 777X orders.
“The shift in tone around the program presents a sharp contrast to Boeing’s outlook just a few weeks ago. On the company’s Q2 earnings call, now-former CEO Dave Calhoun happily noted that in July, Boeing had “received type inspection authorization, TIA, for the 777-9 and began cert flight testing with FAA personnel onboard the aircraft. Our team has put the 777-9 test fleet through more than 1,200 flights, 3,500 flight hours across a wide range of regions and climate condition.”
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/20/heres-why-boeing-shares-slumped-today/
US FAA adopts safety directive for Boeing 787 planes following mid-air dive
“The FAA said the apparent reason for the dive was the uncommanded movement of the captain’s seat, which caused the auto-pilot to disconnect.”
“The agency said it had received a total of five reports of similar problems with the captain and first officer’s seats on 787s, the most recent in June.”
“The FAA said airlines flying Boeing’s 787-8, 787-9, and 787-10 airplanes should inspect the seat switches”
Why would a movement of the pilot’s seat cause the *autopilot* to disconnect?
“If it’s Boeing..”
👉 It looks like most of the US single-aisle market share given up by McDonnell Douglas has gone to Airbus.
https://x.com/airinsight/status/1825920268956467553
That was already noted when the US started its WTO case on Boeing’s behalf:
“Airbus market share evolved from the foundered US manufacturers”
… and not Boeing. ( OK this is different now. Hmm, actually not as these days Boeing enters the “foundered” domain.
Watch as Boeing’s Backlog Shrinks in (Almost) Real Time
BCA booked 228 new orders so far in 2024. This is the “gross order” number.
However, cancellations and conversions lowered the company’s net order amount by 42 planes to just 186 net orders received. After Boeing applied the ASC 606 accounting standard to the net order number, which cut it by nearly half.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-boeings-backlog-shrinks-almost-120800629.html
LNA recently had a related article:
https://leehamnews.com/2024/08/08/trouble-with-the-boeing-backlog/
A *BIG* portion of the BCA backlog can be cancelled without penalty, due to chronic delivery delays. Oops! 🙈
The lack of production is a bigger problem. Even if the backlog pushes into the future it’s only at the expense of future sales campaigns.
You cannot make up missed delivery slots
What an eventful few days at BA!
– 737 MAX: junction box problems with grounding, rework and production slowdown; low-flying southwest aircraft (x3).
– 787: AD to address 5 incidences of sudden pilot seat movement, with nosedive as (potential) consequence.
– 777X: major structural failure in engine mounts on 75% of test fleet — test program stalled.
– Space: the “stranded in space” saga continues, with ongoing indecisiveness and new revelations of space suit incompatibilities.
– Backlog: mounting cancellations and ASC606 deletions.
– Unions: digging their heels in as regards their pay demands (see today’s Seattle Times article).
What will next week bring?
And, on that note:
“While Hopes Rise With Ortberg as CEO, Boeing’s Old Problems Surface Again”
“Nobody expected new Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg to turn the beleaguered aviation giant’s fortunes around quickly, but news that more aircraft lines are having serious problems than expected must be an added shock. On Monday, after regulators ordered mandatory safety inspections of nearly 900 Boeing 787 Dreamliners worldwide, the company acknowledged structural failures found on its future 777-9 aircraft had forced it to suspend further test flights — which will likely further delay the plane’s certification and delivery to customers.”
https://www.inc.com/bruce-crumley/while-hopes-rise-with-ortberg-as-ceo-boeings-old-problems-surface-again.html
BA share price went down 4.2% today.
“Two good programs, possibly three.”
😉
maybe Boeing bankruptcy might be the solution Then Boeing can restart with a new union contract (assuming doesn’t take along the old contract in the bankruptcy filing)
IAM getting greedy when Boeing is bleeding cash is not a good position…..take 7 year contract with 5% a year pay increase (35%) and the guarantee of the new commercial aircraft FAL in Seattle.
Some items to consider for bankruptcy scenario
New union contract-fewer pay grades and more flexible transferring for job tasks. (raise the lower wage rate to start at $30 an hour (do you really want someone making $18 an hour working on commercial aircraft) and limit upper grade increases
Relook/renegotiate future pension and healthcare obligations
Write off of Goodwill impairment…787, 737max and 777x development costs
Negotiate with bondholders at 75 cents to the dollar
Renegotiate some current money losing government contract (e.g. tanker program) to make them profitable
Maybe even selectivity review commercial aircraft orders in backlog and if they are not profitable…renegotiate pricing and terms
Offer shareholders new stock for their vote to support New BODs
This would give the new CEO a clean start…and get rid of some of the legacy issues
Some items to consider for bankruptcy scenario
New union contract-fewer pay grades and more flexible transferring for job tasks. (raise the lower wage rate to start at $30 an hour (do you really want someone making $18 an hour working on commercial aircraft) and limit upper grade increases
Relook/renegotiate future pension and healthcare obligations
Write off of Goodwill impairment…787, 737max and 777x development costs
Negotiate with bondholders at 75 cents to the dollar
Renegotiate some current money losing government contract (e.g. tanker program) to make them profitable
Maybe even selectivity review commercial aircraft orders in backlog and if they are not profitable…renegotiate pricing and terms
Offer shareholders new stock for their vote to support New BODs
This would give the new CEO a clean start…and get rid of some of the legacy issues
The US-China trade war is heating up:
“China’s new rules are worrying insiders about how far Beijing will go on controlling critical metals”
“China accounted for 48% of global antimony mine production in 2023, while the U.S. did not mine any marketable antimony, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s latest annual report. The U.S. has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, and China dominates global tungsten supply, the report said.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html
I’m wondering at what point aircraft engines will be dragged into this — particularly if we end up with Trump 2.0
Russia and titanium is a bigger threat
Maybe add reviewing and scrapping the Boeing executive bonus packages that prioritize generating short term free cash flow, boosting stock value, avoid investment and over promising. Draining the company of everything..
How many slots of 777(F) before 2028 are still available?
Saudi in talks to set up all-cargo carrier
“Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is in exploratory talks with aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus for a new cargo airline, according to media reports.
The country’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is reportedly in discussions with the manufacturers and lessors to acquire Boeing 777 and Airbus A350 freighters”
Prediction: Boeing Might Sell Its Defense Business
“Things are so bad at Boeing Defense, Space, and Security (BDS) that aerospace analyst Chris Quilty of Quilty Space quipped, “I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if they spun out or sold the Defense & Space business as a way to mitigate their sprawling problems.””
“Back then, the businesses that made up what is today called BDS were still pulling in $31 billion in annual revenue, and earning operating profit of $3.1 billion annually. That was a respectable 10% operating profit margin, according to historical data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
But last year, BDS brought in less than $25 billion in revenue — and had a loss of $1.8 billion.
So you can see why Boeing might be a little upset with its BDS performance right now, and might conceivably consider selling the unit and focusing on just one problem at a time.”
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/20/prediction-boeing-might-sell-its-defense-business/
Tales of early demise are greatly exaggerated?
Emirates to buy five Airbus A380s.
Is Emirates going to fly the A380 in the early 2040s?
Hey, how are those 777-Xs coming along, anyway?
:))))))
“Emirates and Doric Nimrod Air Two, a Guernsey, the United Kingdom (UK) , have agreed to a deal that will see the airline purchasing five Airbus A380 aircraft from the aircraft lessor for $40 million apiece.”
“Emirates will purchase five Airbus A380 aircraft from Doric Nimrod Air Two, a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for the acquisition of aircraft.
Out of the five aircraft, three are currently stored or in maintenance.”
“Airbus delivered the aircraft between October 1, 2012, and November 30, 2012, with A6-EDX, A6-EDY, and A6-EDZ currently being stored or in maintenance, according to the site.”
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-buy-5-airbus-a380-lessor-200-million/
Emirates went all in with the A380. They are the only airline interested in buying used aircraft. There is no second hand market. These aircraft were salvage value otherwise. It’s not a ringing endorsement. I will also point out that it’s unclear whether they were the operator of the leased aircraft. Emirates leased a good number of its fleet. Lessors took a bloodbath on these planes
If TC can turn back the clock, he probably would go ahead and order a couple dozen more.
Definitely not salvage value: $5m/airframe higher than Emirates paid in 2023;
stock price of the lessor, a listed SPV, more than doubled in two-and-a-half years (one of the better performers in the industry I believe).
+1
Lol. Saying the quiet part loud!
I selected a few tweets to post.
-> “It’s unbelievable how many dynamic companies broke their streaks of engineer-CEOs for the first time in the 2000s, installing their first MBA/finance CEOs, who then promptly made fundamental strategic errors that nixed the company’s future, that are now becoming obvious.
https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1825919774586552736
-> “The irony is that many of these MBA/finance CEOs in fact succeeded at greatly increasing revenues, profits, and shareholder value—even while making fundamental strategic errors that would effectively kill the company in the future. And they were lauded for it at the time!
-> “You would think that a company in the process of being murdered by its own CEO would see worse financial performance and lower stock valuations by investors, but in fact murdering a company seems to greatly increase profits and excite investor enthusiasm to unheard-of heights.
-> “The apparent conclusion—uncomfortable if not unthinkable for free marketeers—is that MBA/finance thinking and decision-making is not just not helpful but actively hostile and destructive to running a successful, functional company.
-> “How could that be? Well, if you accept there are such things as trade-offs between short-term profit vs. long-term viability, in the examples above we see MBA/finance dogma ruthlessly maximizing those trade-offs in favor of short-term profit. Including killing the company!
—————————
It’s all rational decisions!
Moderately aware people comfortably sitting at the cashing site of draining / monetizing a company love it.
It think it is vital to destroy / redesign the current Boeing Executive bonus packages. They are a root cause for the current situation.
WH004, which has not been flown since 2021, has also found crack(s)!
What does this mean??
http://paineairport.com/kpae400820.htm
It means that the FAA granted a TIA to a plane that has been primed to crash for (at least) 3 years.
It also points to a very fundamental design flaw.
If it takes BA a year to design a fix for the nacelle overheating issue on the MAX, then how long will it take to (radically) redesign a critical component such as this 777X thrust transfer component?
And what other parts need to be re-designed?
Tim Clark can forget EIS in 2026 !
Who says (besides interested party Boeing) that the MAX nacelle heat issue will be fixed in a year? I’m a little interested to see what kind of kludge that outfit will
come up with, to fix that pesky issue.. if it could be readily fixed it would’ve happened a long time ago, IME.
Regarding the 777-X, I will remain silent. 😉
I’m under no illusion that McB will have the nacelle heating problem fixed within a year — I’m just quoting that company’s own guidance (for what it’s worth).
I’m expecting this new problem to delay 777X cert by at least 2 years.
Tim will be delighted with that 🙈
At least he’ll be getting the first of his new A350s within a few weeks. Once he’s had a chance to play with that, he may finally decide to jump ship.
p.s. I find it interesting that Mr. Ortberg — an engineer — hasn’t commented on the various, serious engineering screw-ups that have been revealed in the past few days…despite his commitment to be “transparent”. Then again, what could he actually say? Meaningless crap such as “this is not who we are — we need to do better”..?
This is worse problem than nacelle heating. The flight program is down until a fix is designed. Something fundamental in the design model here gone wrong.
If I had to throw a dart I would say six months at the least with greatly reduced repeat inspections. What could have been theoretically a mid 2025 EIS is now at least early 2026
Boeing / FAA will have to do a Root Cause investigation, again.
Probably Boeings, FAA 2014 approved, 777X fast track certification strategy will show its ugly face again. The 777X is not a 77W variant really.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303948104579534233968514184
[i]
EVERETT, Wash.—The Federal Aviation Administration said it has received a request by Boeing Co. to allow the new 777X version of its best-selling long-range jetliner to be approved under rules that grandfather the plane under the current model’s certification.
Approval of the request would clear a major regulatory hurdle for the plane maker, likely significantly reducing the amount of changes Boeing will have to make to the jet to meet the latest aviation safety standards. Boeing plans to bring a slate of advanced technologies and new features to the 777X.
[/i]
But in 20214 Boeing (using congress) had FAA firmly in the pocket.
https://www.faa.gov/media/32711
It seems to me everybody is trying to forget / ignore. Probably because of the wide, political and public support at that time. Complicity all around.. look forward pls.
It’s one of the hazards of designing outside of a known box. These are the highest thrust engines yet to be made.
A quick google search tells me Safran is doing the nacelle
And, yet, there’s no new physics here — just well-established principles of mechanical engineering.
This blatant failing is the result of a blatant shortcut.
Nope, GE9X produce less thrust than the GE90-115B.
It looks the C919 EASA cert will be first! and 777x EASA cert….maybe sometime this decade
“2035.”
😉
“A judge who overturned a $72 million verdict against Boeing disclosed he bought and sold Boeing stock while hearing the case — but says his wife’s IRA was to blame”
https://www.businessinsider.com/judge-boeing-zunum-lawsuit-stock-trade-accident-ethics-2024-8
That is an interesting issue.
What kind of influence does the IRA owner have over what the managing bank does in day to day trade?
Would a judge and connected persons have to hand out an exclusion list while working on a case? ( what scope reach? )
I have to believe this will hold up so long as they can show there was no evidence of movement in an out. Also have to think no single stock is a huge portion of portfolio
AW: Boeing 777-9 Component Failure Details, Ramifications Remain Unclear
“The Boeing 777-9 with the severed thrust link component that led to the test fleet’s grounding has the fewest hours and cycles but has been the most active since formal FAA testing began five weeks ago. Analysis of Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery and Flightaware data show that WH003 …
(Paywall)
I think the part itself might be relatively easy to replace by a stronger one. But that is not the biggest issue, Boeing has to explain how this problem could occur, what safety nets, oversight in design and certification were there, and why they failed. Were they delegated? If the design & certification process of this part is representative of other parts. If not please show why not? If so, please review etc.. Root Causes.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/08/20/13/88722821-13761131-image-a-15_1724156838572.jpg
faults on many (all) samples after comparatively few hours of use
would indicate a systematic failure and not some outlier issues.
* defective material ( i.e. part manufactured not to spec )
* part “misconstructed” ( but loading assumptions correct )
* load assumptions for the part do not fit reality.
another enum item:
* engine installation/removal damaged these parts.
( my assumption: engines have been changed quite often for rework.)
That’s why I think this might be a relatively quick process. Six months if everything falls into place right
AW:
“Cathay Pacific, with its latest order for 30 A330-900s and purchase rights for another 30, has given the airframer some reason for optimism. Cathay is a premier airline brand to which other carriers are looking, and it plans to use the aircraft as Airbus has hoped: serving dense, and in some cases longer, routes within Asia, which has a substantial installed base of legacy A330s.”
“The Cathay deal came after large commitments by Malaysia Airlines and Vietjet for 20 A330neos each. Malaysia is due to decide on options for 20 more aircraft before year-end. And with China negotiating an even larger deal for about 100 or more A330neos that could replace its existing A330 fleet, more momentum may be about to develop. “China is awakening to the A330neo; it is quite looked after by the airlines,” Airbus sales chief Benoit de Saint-Exupery told Aviation Week in June. One of his main 2024 targets is for “the A330neo to deploy its wings,” he said. “
I enjoyed the dude from AB’s deliberate understatement.
Yeah, the A330neo is gonna do fine; is doing fine: “undersell, and overdeliver- unlike the other outfit.”
#2035
AW: TransNusa Completes Comac ARJ21 Short Runway Verification Flight (Paywall)
This latest story about the 777-X thrust-thingie is kinda weird.
Wouldn’t that normally be one profoundly well-engineered part, being so crucial and all?
It begs the question of whether a new material or supplier was sourced. Wouldn’t be the first time the lowest cost bid produced a bad batch of product
..makes one wonder what the rest of the aircraft is like, QC-wise.
Precisely.
And also design-wise.
Remember the ripped-out fuselage…and the uncommanded pitch change.
I’m not necessarily convinced that it was a material problem — a design shortcoming is also possible.
E.g. as regards poorly modeled vibration and/or torque effects (larger diameter engine = greater torque at mounting points).
Don’t underestimate McB’s ability when it comes to engineering kludges.
You are exactly right. I worked closely with the propulsion structure team on the underwing package for the 777X. The team was coordinated by a hot-shot named Philip V., barely out of college with absolutely minimal qualifications and a “master of the universe” ego (he has departed Boeing ever since, to work for the Chinese). Worst of all, the propulsion structures team was as unqualified as you would imagine. The prevailing party line was that the tech fellow in charge wouldn’t believe computer-generated Finite Element Analysis results – instead relying on old simplified spreadsheets, and arcane hand calculations for design and verification. I would not be one bit surprised if they collectively missed some big non-linear effects, exactly like you say, in the design of the thrust link and maybe other parts – what a nightmare.
Thanks for all this info.
That’s an impressive mess that you describe.
If our suspicions are correct, then I think that a (proper) re-design — with all attendant re-implementation and re-testing — will take years.
Flutter problems show up in the most unexpected ways sometimes
From a poster on the A.net:
“Boeing and Regulatory are pouring over the removed struts and possibly the attach points pins and all. […] The inspection routine for titanium parts of this nature will take months. First as a complete assembly then as disassembled components. Some of the tests will destroy the components. They will also look at the shipping plan incase these units were damaged in transit.
So there will be no quick answer. […]”
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1489789&start=650
Interesting reading the linked comments there on A.net — plenty of commenters there voluntarily sticking their heads in the sand…🙈
As if that will change anything.
😅
@Abalone
That’s why I mentioned above ‘it’s like a new version of the “third world pilots” is invented to cope’.
regular run of Boeinginista.
also see the A.net Starliner topic comments.
Boeing whistleblower points to past electrical wiring defects in 737 MAX
“A prominent Boeing whistleblower released new documents Thursday that point to confusion and chaos in the company’s Renton factory as it built two 737 MAX planes that would later crash.
https://x.com/seattletimes/status/1826750444217008561
Good timing!
With Judge O’Connor in Texas still considering whether or not to accept BA’s sweatheart plea deal, this revelation increases the justification for a jury trial…and it also justifies arraignment on additional charges, such as criminal negligence.
“A further document allegedly describes an incident involving the same aircraft, three weeks after it had been delivered to its owner, Ethiopian Airlines.
“A record of communications between Boeing and the airline, it sets out how the plane suffered an “uncommanded roll” at low altitude while preparing to land.
“This was later attributed to an intermittent fault with wiring, according to the foundation.
“The Foundation for Aviation Safety claims these documents were concealed from “government authorities, law enforcement, airline customers, victim families, and the public”.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy3lxqlwl1o
Are the MAXes still flying with a third “chaperone pilot”?
One hopes so:
“Two to turn the Trim Wheels, plus one to- uh- fly the plane.”
(or to correct the uncommanded roll, or..)
Don’t forget that there’s yet another (junior) pilot necessary to shovel coal into the boilers…🙈
‘An Osprey crash in Australia that killed three Marines last August was caused by multiple pilot errors during a near mid-air collision, a military investigation has found. It also found that squadron leadership had permitted “a culture that disregarded safety of flight.” ‘
‘It is the second recent Marine Corps Osprey accident where critical flight data and voice data were lost because the recorder was destroyed by the post-crash fire. After a 2022 Osprey crash in California that killed five Marines, investigators recommended that all Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey flight data recorders be replaced with a version that was resistant to high temperatures and fire and would survive a crash.’
https://apnews.com/article/osprey-crash-australia-v22-marines-4478413de5d12814025b2a2bf05008b5
Flawed metal & failed communication: Breaking down the Air Force’s fatal Osprey crash
https://t.co/4pOR57D3BX
https://x.com/theaircurrent/status/1826907334171668821
“Flaw in Osprey Gears Was Known a Decade Prior to Deadly Japan Crash, Internal Report Shows
From Military.com
https://t.co/Ck1x7b2i8k
Known material fault in the “other” set of Epicyclic gears!
Obviously no connection 🙂
“USAF KC-46 suffers emergency during refuelling flight”
“While the US Air Force has not specified the nature of the issue, unverified photos on social media show the aircraft on the ground with a severed fuel-transfer boom.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/usaf-kc-46-suffers-emergency-during-refuelling-flight/159706.article
“.. severed fuel-transfer boom .”
That only happens to inept airbus MRTT duds!
Post on SM:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=833594318902179&id=100067548558719
‘No one was injured during the incident, but the 931st Air Refueling Wing that operated the KC-46 did say in a release that the aircraft landed with its boom down at Travis Air Force Base, Calif., and dropped a “portion” of the boom nearby the base. […]
This latest incident is the second mishap within two months involving the McConnell AFB; in June, one of its tankers was damaged while refueling a USAF F-16 in Dutch airspace. Audio from the aircraft described a refueling door damage on the fighter due to a “too close breakaway incident” between the two aircraft. An Airman aboard KC-46 then reported the tanker was also “damaged and unable to refuel.” The cause of the mishap is still under investigation.
Another midair refueling incident in 2022 left a Pegasus heavily damaged after it attempted to gas up an F-15. Unconfirmed photos posted on social media website following the accident showed a wrecked boom of the plane below its dented tail cone.
The Air Force and Boeing are currently working to resolve multiple Category I deficiencies to the KC-46’s refueling system, including a “stiff” boom and a faulty Remote Vision System (RVS), a setup of cameras and monitors the boom operator uses to connect the tanker to the refueling aircraft. The system washes out or blacks out in certain conditions, such as in direct sunlight. The RVS system can also cause issues with boom operator’s depth perception, which creates the risk of the boom operator accidentally hitting the aircraft the KC-46 is refueling.”
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/refueling-mishap-kc-46-boom-travis/
FG:
“The aircraft is assigned to the 22nd Aerial Refueling Wing at McConnell AFB in Kansas, but on 21 August was operating over Santa Barbara, California – where President Joe Biden is currently on holiday. […]
Flight tracking site Flightradar24.com shows multiple USAF tankers in the area throughout the day bearing call signs with the “Wide” prefix. Air-traffic-control audio posted to social media captured the pilot of Wide 12 declaring an emergency with “hydraulic failure”.
The pilot subsequently requests firefighting support on the ground at Travis AFB, where the KC-46A diverted. Travis is near San Francisco and some 260nm (482km) north of Santa Barbara.
The USAF confirms the KC-46 crew landed safely at Travis.”
So, what we all suspected has now been confirmed: BA’s piece-of-junk Starliner will not be used to return the two stranded ISS astronauts to Earth — instead, that task will be undertaken by a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft in Feb, 2025.
One wonders what compensation BA will have to pay to NASA for this debacle.
And there’s still the risky task of decoupling the Starliner from the ISS without damaging the space station…
https://www.voanews.com/a/nasa-decides-to-keep-2-stranded-astronauts-in-space-until-february/7755711.html
Truth really is becoming stranger than fiction, these days.
Something to ponder.
NASA Decision Against Using a Boeing Capsule to Bring Astronauts Back Adds to Company’s Problems
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2024-08-24/nasa-decision-against-using-a-boeing-capsule-to-bring-astronauts-back-adds-to-companys-problems
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-08-24/spacex-to-return-boeings-starliner-astronauts-from-space-next-year-nasa-says
“NASA’s Ken Bowersox says there will be a part two of the flight readiness review on Wednesday (or thereabouts) to ensure that Starliner is ready for an uncrewed undocking.
https://x.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1827395668937195666
Re: A321XLR
The 321XLR does not need FAA approval to fly to the USA? The FAA approval is required for FAA controlled airlines to use operate the airframe?
yes
does not prevent them to throw some spanner or other …
..double-edged sword, though; and US regulatory bodies’
credibility is already in tatters.
Interesting. May worth further investigation over next couple of years.
“The fact of the matter is that if Boeing wants to reach break-even on the 787 at some time in the future, they can’t match the A330neo in pricing.”
https://leehamnews.com/2014/07/13/farnborough-air-show-july-14-a330-program-analysis/#comment-36617
“New Boeing CEO Faces Hard Choices After NASA Snubs Starliner for SpaceX”
“(Bloomberg) — After a humiliating setback to its space ambitions, Boeing Co. faces a dilemma that pits its national duty against strained cash reserves.”
“Boeing’s strained balance sheet and an expected cash burn of at least $5 billion this year are considerations the company has to weigh against its legacy in space, which dates back to the Apollo moon-landing program. After recording some $1.6 billion in cost overruns, the struggling aerospace giant seems unlikely to ever make money on Starliner.
“In a July filing, the company disclosed $125 million in new losses stemming from delays to the crewed flight test and testing of Starliner’s glitchy propulsion systems. “For Boeing, the losses are significant and would call into question the viability of a business like this if you look at it in a long-term way,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-25/boeing-ceo-faces-hard-decisions-after-nasa-s-starliner-rejection/
“NASA hasn’t ruled out certifying the Boeing craft, although it could require another test flight before the capsule is allowed to carry astronauts again. That could cost Boeing about $400 million, based on charges the company booked to redo an earlier test flight. The agency’s experts still aren’t certain why the thrusters suddenly stopped working.”
But, but TBTF. Help is on the way.
“Given the stakes, Swope thinks NASA will try to work out a way forward that keeps Boeing in the commercial crew program while addressing some of its financial pain. If the aerospace giant needs to send Starliner into space autonomously to test its glitch-prone thrusters, perhaps the agency could convert that into a cargo mission, he said.”
Suddenly similar reports popped up:
Reuters: Astronauts’ Plight Piles Pressure on Boeing’s Struggling Space Unit
“The Space Launch System (SLS) rocket is another problem for Boeing’s space unit. An August report by NASA’s inspector general cited deep issues with quality control, while saying Boeing’s SLS workforce in Michoud, Louisiana “lacks sufficient aerospace production experience, training, and instruction.”
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-08-26/analysis-astronauts-plight-piles-pressure-on-boeings-struggling-space-unit
“…lacks sufficient aerospace production experience, training, and instruction.”
What can you expect from a company that’s hiring ex-KFC and ex-TacoBell?
AW: Longtime NASA Commercial Space Chief McAlister Out
Boeing’s penny pinching started long ago.
NYTimes:
“In 1998, Boeing executives summoned Mr. Jones to Seattle, he later recalled in a speech, and made clear that, to get more of Boeing’s business, Collins would have to cut prices dramatically.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/07/business/boeing-737-max-collins.html
“A detailed account of how the quality lapses happened as a 737 MAX that became Alaska Airlines 1282 moved last Sept through Boeing’s assembly plant — and of the characters now at the center of the investigation into the door plug midair blowout in January”
https://t.co/qAv890KJZ7
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1827693661213384757
“A 35-year veteran on the door team told NTSB investigators that he is “the only one that can work on all the doors” and he was typically the only mechanic who would work on door plugs.“
“Filling in for the veteran mechanic on vacation, the Trainee was perhaps the least equipped to do this atypical job. He’d been at Boeing for about 17 months, his only previous jobs being at KFC and Taco Bell.”
“Though Boeing says it has not identified the individuals directly responsible, it has placed two workers involved on administrative leave. A company investigator accused one of them of lying. That employee told the NTSB that Boeing has set the pair up as scapegoats.”
Wonderful!
Multi-million-dollar passenger aircraft are being assembled by ex-KFC rookies.
So, passengers are putting their lives in the hands of cheap, unqualified laborers.
Pennywise, pound foolish.
Good old McB! Every day a new, jaw-dropping revelation.
FT: “The leading 15 defence contractors are forecast to log free cash flow of $52bn in 2026, according to analysis by Vertical Research Partners for the Financial Times — almost double their combined cash flow at the end of 2021.”
Five leading U.S. defense contractors, excluding Boeing, are projected to produce a cash flow of $26 billion by the end of 2026, more than double the amount in 2021. In Europe, defense giants like BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Saab are expected to see a combined cash flow increase of over 40%.
Sweet! (for the Very, very Few.)
Nationalize the Bastards, and watch those costs
plummet..
“Ryanair’s O’Leary says new Boeing management ‘continue to disappoint'”
“Ryanair Group (RYAAY) Chief Executive Michael O’Leary on Tuesday said that Boeing’s (BA) new management “continue to disappoint” and that deliveries were behind schedule.”
“”We’re working closely with Stephanie Pope and the new team in Boeing, but they continue to disappoint us,” he said, referring to the head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, who was appointed in March.”
“O’Leary said the smaller MAX 7 was supposed to be certified by the end of this year, but that looks like slipping into the first half of 2025.”
“He said it was “impossible to know” if certification of the MAX 10 would be on time in the first half of 2025. “It’s a day-by-day challenge with Boeing.””
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanairs-oleary-says-boeing-management-082848268.html
—
Poor Mr. O’Leary put all his money on the wrong horse 🙈
Delivery of KLM’s first A321neo!
What would happen if AF/KLM picked the MAX??
“Air China and China Southern Airlines will receive their first C919 aircraft today.
As per sources, at 1900hrs on 28th August, Air China and China Southern Airlines will simultaneously receive their first C919 aircraft at the Pudong Base of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) Final Assembly and Manufacturing Center.”
https://x.com/fl360aero/status/1828704791003840674
Congrats to Comac
Nice video clip in the link
+1
Step by step.
I read a Spanish-language article the other day which (authoritatively) opined that C919 certification by EASA will unleash a flow of orders from Africa and Latin America.
This plane is shaping up to be a winner. Once the Chinese CJ-1000A engine is ready, the C919 program will really take off.
It’s been reported that both Air China and China Southern expects to each receive 3 C919 this year, China Eastern to receive two more.
“… WH003 (N779XY).
It’s expected to return to Seattle on August 30 for further investigation.”
https://x.com/b777xlovers/status/1828447289058427101
The caption to the photo in that link says that the BA crew is “examining and replacing” the thrust link.
Replacing = see how quickly the new one cracks during fresh test flights.
Sounds very empirical…
What happened to this? 👇
https://faa.gov/aircraft/air_cert/international/bilateral_agreements/baa_basa_listing/media/China_BASA.pdf
Japan is “closer” and that did not help Mitsubishi a tiny bit.
Spacejet cert was IMHO sabotaged.
+1
“Oh, we just decided to drop it.”
Not bloody likely
“.. Boeing found thrust link assembly damage on WH004, its 4th 777-9 test aircraft that last flew in Nov. 2021. So all four have the problem.”
https://x.com/AvWeekSean/status/1828906587576053778
“Boeing found cracks in at least one thrust link assembly on its fourth 777-9 test aircraft, which has been inactive for nearly three years, Aviation Week has learned.”
So, the damage occurred 3 years ago, and is only being discovered now…?
Makes you wonder what else is lurking under the hood.
#uncertifiable
Is this a “stress from divergent thermal expansion issue” ( overdetermined linkage ) ?
the linkages connect the top rear to the fan section in a “cold environment” ( unheated flow from the fan )
From the same attachment point “top of rear” via turbine and compressor casing “hot environment” into the fan section is a secondary force transfer path.
Damage achieved with apparently few engine cycles!
Outside pay wall
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/cracked-thrust-link-assembly-found-fourth-boeing-777-9
“Boeing, Union ‘Really Far Apart’ Weeks Ahead of Possible Strike”
“(Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. and its largest union remain at odds on major issues in contract talks as a possible strike looms that could cripple production of its cash-cow 737 Max jetliner next month.
“The two sides are “really far apart” on wages, job security and other matters, said Jon Holden, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers district that represents roughly 33,000 Boeing factory workers.”
“There have been “slight” improvements in the company’s offers over wages during the past week, but more is needed, Holden said.”
“In the interview, Holden said he hasn’t noticed any change in tone at the bargaining table since the new CEO took over from Dave Calhoun, who announced he was stepping down in March amid a broad shake-up.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-28/boeing-union-really-far-apart-weeks-ahead-of-possible-strike/
“Japan Airlines (JAL) procurement SVP Yukio Nakagawa has voiced interest in the Airbus A321XLR, which will enter commercial service over the coming months with Spanish carrier Iberia.”
https://x.com/AviationWeek/status/1828841488312062073
I think the current market situation and offeriung make that most airlines have either ordered or shown interest in the A321NEO. KLM used to be a loyal Boeing & 737 customer. Got their first NEO this week.
https://i0.wp.com/www.aviationupdatesph.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/KLM-A321neo-1.jpg?fit=1600%2C1200&ssl=1
PS I suspect non-subscription articles will increase, site visits and info exchange must be dropping fast 😉
FWIW Bloomberg ran this article:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/08/27/pilot-shortage-threatens-japans-goal-for-60-million-tourists/
Japan faces quite serious demographic challenge.
United executive explains why the airline hasn’t bought Boeing’s newest widebody plane
“No US airline has purchased the Boeing 777X widebody plane, which hasn’t yet been certified.
An executive at United Airlines told BI the jet is too big for the airline’s multihub network.
He said the model better suits carriers with one central hub, like Emirates and British Airways.”
Yelling at your only customer??
Boeing, NASA execs had heated arguments about bringing stranded astronauts home on Starliner: report
“[…] The outlet reported Friday that sources at both Boeing and NASA confirmed the high-level meetings between the two organizations descended into arguments and yelling over whether to bring the astronauts home on the troubled Boeing Starliner that brought them to the ISS on its first crewed mission.”
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/boeing-nasa-execs-had-heated-arguments-about-bringing-stranded-astronauts-home-starliner-report
True?
-> “No Flights In The Last 14 Days”
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/N779XY
Apparently the aircraft is still [stuck] in Kona.
Who is/are running this account??
So much corporate speak.
“#UPDATE: The third test 777-9, WH003 (N779XY), remains stationed in Kona, Hawaii, following the discovery of a structural issue in the engine mount.
Boeing’s dedicated team is working tirelessly on the ground, conducting detailed inspections and repairs to address the problem.
Their goal is to ensure the aircraft is safe and fully functional before making the crucial flight back to Seattle, where further evaluations and testing will continue.
Despite this setback, Boeing is committed to overcoming these challenges and advancing the 777X program toward its next milestones.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C_VaTRZTusp/?igsh=MTIxeWgzZmM3emp1cA%3D%3D&img_index=1
“Who is/are running this account??”
Maybe Randy Tinseth out of his retirement place?
I’d think the Faraday cage thing doesn’t take much of his time 🙂
“Inside Boeing, workers are skeptical of leadership commitments to myriad planned safety changes.
They feel ‘overmanaged and undersupported’ and say the training for new inexperienced hires is inadequate”
https://t.co/edjkyuONQS
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1830259230286475554
“Turkey has formally asked to join the BRICS group of emerging-market nations”
https://x.com/business/status/1830553592467456215
“The view of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration is that the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting away from developed economies…”
“Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey’s close ally Azerbaijan are among other countries looking to join.”
NATO-member Turkey joining BRICS would present quite the conundrum for certain interested parties.
“pass the popcorn, please..”
There’s currently a list of 47 countries with a desire / intention to join BRICS.
https://watcher.guru/news/47-countries-ready-to-join-the-brics-alliance
We’ll get more info during the BRICS summit in Kazan next month (Oct 22-24) — at which the bloc is also widely expected to announce a clearing currency (similar to the ECU) so as to facilitate dollarless trade in national currencies.
More than 60 countries have expressed an interest in trading in currencies other than the dollar, and many have already started doing so.
👇👇
I’m going thru some online reports/rumors, may be worthy for me to stay up.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-sets-apple-showdown-event-071935516.html
from Leeham post
“Let’s compare these numbers with production rates. China still needs Boeing.”
No new orders since 2017, so they have shown they don’t need Boeing. They may fall short on some capacity for the Chinese airlines in the short term, but geopolitical conditions will not change. The US has shown to China they are not a reliable trade partner in the aircraft sector (e.g. US content for the C919)
Say 7,200 single aisle for the next 20 years for China…around 360 a year
10 a month for China is 120 and 20 a month by Airbus is 240 (Airbus 20 a month out of 80 a month production rate..25%)
China doesn’t need Boeing!
China won’t be at 10/mo for several years
IMO recent delays & low production rate of the 737 MAX mean few production slots available near term.
yes…currently have production capacity of 4 a month today, they are currently building more FALs for C919. by 2030 they will be there!
There are different ways of looking at the aviation industry phenomenon in China, as follows:
(A) China joins the club of existing “Western” aviation manufacturers.
In this instance, one might be conditioned to think that aviation industry development in China will proceed at a pace similar to legacy development in the “West”.
OR
(B) The impressive list of Chinese “miracles” in industrial development will extend to aviation . In this case, one may be conditioned to think that developments in aviation manufacturing will proceed at a pace similar to earlier “miracles” in areas such as high-speed trains, space, advanced weaponry, automotive, robotics, etc.
—
Of course, there’ll be no meaningful progress according to either point of view until China gets its CJ-1000A turbofan into mass production…because it’s probably only a matter of time before US sanctions extend to jet engines.
.. until it becomes clear the Chinese have money, patience & technology. Then “if you can’t beat them …” comes in. A sensitive phase for some countries maybe.
BoA analyst downgrades BA stock, forecasts an equity raise of $30 billion by 2026.
“Boeing carries $45 billion net debt on its balance sheet, and paying this down would consume all of its cash through 2030”
Wow. The Wells Fargo guy?
Katie, bar the doors..
Bank of America analyst Matthew Akers.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/analyst-overhauls-boeing-stock-price-target-as-cash-issues-persist
Oops!!! Sorry.
TheStreet.com is wrong! Akers works for Wells Fargo, not BoA.
Reuters:
‘Boeing’s free cash flow per share could grow to about $20 this decade if it were to delay new planes for “several more years” and just pay down debt, Akers said, but that would risk ceding market share to rival Airbus SE in the long run.’
+1
The quote is still short of the mark, because it assumes that BA will actually generate earnings with which to pay off debt.
However, BA hasn’t generated (non-negligable) earnings for 5 years now…and it’s currently burning through $1B per month. Line rates aren’t anywhere near where they’re meant to be, and 31,000 employees are demanding a 40% pay increase.
Spiralling the drain.
Stock currently down 7.22% on this news.
Surprising that it took this long for the penny to start dropping.
$30B equity raise? That will decimate the stock !
The WF guy I mentioned now appears to have a target price of $119 for BA stock (corrections welcome).
Finally headed toward reality?
An analyst’s mortal sin is missing the upside, not the other way around.
From Wikipedia:
“The townsfolk uncomfortably go along with the pretense, not wanting to appear inept or stupid, until a child blurts out that the emperor is wearing nothing at all. The people then realize that everyone has been fooled. Although startled, the emperor continues the procession, walking more proudly than ever.”
Oh, I hear you loud and clear, Pedro.
Let’s see just how long they can keep the game going- and what lame excuses are offered when Time is Up.
“… and what lame excuses are offered when Time is Up.”
It’s the market, the “market” crashed… the industry “downturn” etc.
Charles Prince of the Citigroup, before the GFC: “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
“Congress is back from August recess, which means its appropriations time. A reminder that if the Hill doesn’t reach a $ deal by the end of this month, a shutdown would furlough air traffic controllers and other folks at @FAANews & @USDOT …”
https://x.com/willguisbond/status/1831044005876154717
“Barring any delivery delays, @wizzair plans to debut its first A321XLR on Milan Malpensa-Abu Dhabi route on June 2, 2025. It anticipates taking delivery of 8 A321XLRs in 2025.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWo25OtWAAAoDc9?format=jpg&name=medium
https://x.com/ByERussell/status/1831336559959744543
“On American’s A321XLR introduction, SVP of Network Planning Brian Znotins told me the first planes will be used to replace the A321T on premium transcontinental domestic flights first — and then introduced to transatlantic flights sometime after that.
https://x.com/ByERussell/status/1831696572628770870
Congrats to Comac
“C919 reached 500K passengers in 15 months, operated over 10K flight hours.”
https://simpleflying.com/comac-c919-carries-500000th-passenger/
Next week??
“Now that its thrust links have been replaced, expect to see a functional check flight on 777X WH003 from Kona to Kona sometime in the next few days. It won’t return to Seattle quite yet.
https://x.com/jonostrower/status/1831768102897627564
Here, pull the other one.
Designed and installed an entirely new part, already?
😉
I’m inclined to think that they may have replaced the damaged link by an undamaged one of the same type, with some small sensors attached to it (accelerometers) so as to track vibrational behavior, stresses, etc…all in the hope of trying to find out why/how/when the design is failing.
Just the first step in a lengthy process.
I could be wrong, of course — after all, this is the company that uses ex-KFC employees to assemble planes.
Given that company’s track record, I’ll remain silent for now.
The aircraft taxis in airport.
“Recent WH003 (N779XY) test flight in Kona, Hawaii.
https://x.com/b777xlovers/status/1832445403620585827
Posted yesterday
“The Boeing 777-9X test jet grounded in Hawaii after a “thrust link” part (transfers thrust from engine to airframe) was found snapped in two, flew a check flight out of Kona today with part replaced
May fly back to Seattle soon.
BOE3 flight (FlightAware)
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1832213683860336896
Posted today:
“Boeing:
* 4 new thrust links – 2/engine – were installed on the 777-9.
* After engine ground runs in Kona, inspected all four thrust links with no findings.
* Our team will determine the appropriate timing for a safe flight to Seattle after a review of the functional flight
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1832484204208357864
In other words: they haven’t a clue what the underlying problem is, are feeling around in the dark for some inspiration, and are scared to lose a frame to a crash.
Fits the pattern.
This is quick!
“Go home day for WH003. The third 777-9’s extended stay in Hawaii comes to a close. Four new thrust links later.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GW-m3GLbMAA82tt?format=jpg&name=large
https://x.com/jonostrower/status/1832867054627737929
“CRJ operators in the USA will be required to install a $53k RF bandpass filter on the coaxial line between the radio altimeter and the receive antenna in the aft equipment compartment to prevent 5G C-Band interference under a newly proposed AD”
https://x.com/WandrMe/status/1831717215755731270
Is that really limited to CRJ ?
I’d expect this to be a “generational” issue with the majority of older radar altimeter designs.
similar issue with existing certified GPS equipment.
5G and some other services saturate the not sufficiently narrowband L1 receive path.
Is there a concensus that a strike is highly likely?? Another seven days to go…
https://x.com/LeehamNews/status/1831350798657499250
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWpD1zYWIAEpBmK?format=jpg&name=large
Barron’s:
“Wage increases totaling 40% over three years would amount to $1.5 billion in additional cash expenses a year, wrote Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu in a recent report. That would raise Boeing’s costs by roughly 2%. The company could offset some increases with higher prices and greater productivity among its workers.
Kahyaoglu argued that a strike would cost more than keeping the workforce happy. “Prior IAM 751 strikes at Boeing lasted 58 days in 2008, 28 days in 2005, 69 days in 1995, and 48 days in 1989,” she wrote. The 2008 strike reduced cash flow by about $2.5 billion, which would equate to about $3 billion today, according to the analyst.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/09/06/boeings-financial-recovery-at-stake-with-strike-vote-days-away/
Beleagured China appear to not understand that They Need Boing [that’s a joke, Son].
When did China last order a Boeing aircraft?
May be awhile … waiting for Godot.
Where is the new CEO? What lessons are (not) learned??
“Inside Boeing’s jet plant in Everett, managers are currently pushing partially assembled 777 jets through the assembly line, leaving tens of thousands of unfinished jobs due to defects and parts shortages to be completed out of sequence on each airplane”
https://t.co/q42GZtFqGI
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1832026712974245927
Boeing stock fell below $160
Stumbled upon this
March 24, 2020
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/supply-chain/nearly-50-years-apart-lockheed-bailout-resonates-during-boeing-crisis