777 P2F market grinds to a halt: lack of feedstock, Boeing, war, money to blame

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By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 27, 2025, (c) Leeham News: Boeing’s inability to deliver 787s on time and continued delays in certification of the 777-9 mean airlines planning to replace aging aircraft or expand must retain older aircraft longer than expected.

Airbus’ inability to deliver the A350 on planned schedules also affects fleet renewal and expansion plans, but to a much lesser extent than caused by Boeing.

IAI's Big Twin Boeing 777-300ERF. Credit: IAI.

Boeing’s circumstances also mean that feedstock intended for conversions of 777-300ERs from passenger aircraft to freighters upset the business models of the three P2F conversion companies: IAI Bedek, KMC, and Mammoth Freighters.

Finally, certification of IAI’s conversation program is running two years behind schedule, and Boeing’s reluctance to license critical flight control software has also stalled P2F programs.

In addition to the problems outlined above, the inability to convert the big twin 777-300ER to freighters or receive new 777-8Fs and A350Fs in the coming years means that 747-400 freighters, which are gas-guzzlers by today’s standards and expensive to maintain, must remain in service longer than planned.

It’s a bleak picture emerging for the near- to-mid-term freighter market.

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