Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
USAF used criteria GAO rejected in new DRFP: KC-30 backers
Update, December 8:
Bill Barksdale, Boeing KC-7A7 spokesman, emailed us with a response to this column. We have posted his note in the Comments section below.
Original Post:
The USAF used criteria in the current Draft RFP for the KC-X competition that had been rejected by the Government Accountability Office’s review of the Boeing protest last year, an analysis by prepared by EADS North America and Northrop Grumman asserts.
This unfairly tilts the current DRFP toward the Boeing KC-767 and is the basis Northrop why said it will not submit a bid unless major changes are made with the Final RFP.
USAF RFP supports smaller airplane: Boeing
Bloomberg quotes the CEO of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems as saying the USAF Draft RFP for the KC-X competition favors the smaller 767.
Bloomberg writes:
Boeing Says Tanker Request Favors a 767-Based Plane (Update1)
2009-12-03 16:13:59.557 GMT
By Gopal Ratnam
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. defense chief Dennis Muilenburg said the U.S. Air Force’s requirements for a new aerial refueling tanker favor a 767-based airplane.
“It’s important for us to allow the customer to finalize the requirement, but if you look at the current request for proposals it would push us toward a 767-based plane,” Muilenburg said today at a conference sponsored by Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.
Read more
Northrop says no bid on tanker unless…
Update, December 2, 3:00 pm: DOD Buzz reports that Rep. John Murtha, a powerful House member, says there has to be competition for the KC-X and doesn’t rule out Congress stepping in.
This is something we forgot to mention in our Update below. We fully expect an effort on the part of some Members of Congress to renew the effort for a split buy. As we have written many times before, we can think of many strategic reasons this makes sense, let alone the political solution. But this also only makes sense if the procurement is doubled from the 12-18 per year proposed by DOD to 24-36 a year. We also believe the KC-777 is the best replacement for the aging KC-10.
There is enough strategic need to go around for everyone. That this continues to be a political football should be an embarrassment to all concerned.
Update, December 2:
(See Original Post below the jump for background.)
The prospect that Northrop Grumman won’t submit a bid unless the Final RFP is changed to allow for the different sizes between the KC-30 and the KC-767 is very similar to what happened with the 2006 competition.
The USAF then initially did not plan an “extra credit” for larger capabilities exceeding the minimum requirements of the airplane. Northrop threatened to withdraw from that competition unless the FRFP allowed for extra credit–and prevailed.
USAirways defers Airbuses; may help in United competition
US Airways early this morning announced it has deferred deliveries of 54 Airbus wide- and narrow-body airplanes from 2010 to 2013 and beyond, including the A350 from 2015 to 2017.
While a blow to Airbus on the one hand, it could help the company win the order on at United Airlines on the other.
Did Qantas further cut 787 orders?
The Center for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA) reports that Qantas of Australia now only lists 25 firm 787 orders and 25 rights to purchase the airplane in its latest fleet plan. Boeing still shows 50 orders by the airline, which previously had 65 on order but canceled 15 and restructured the delivery stream on the rest.
Update, Nov. 24: CAPA has now published this addition to the news link; the chart referred to below in contained in the article linked above):
[Correction: Qantas advises that the following chart, contained in its Investor Presentation, should in fact reflect the fact that there are 50 firm orders for the B787, not 25 firm and 25 purchase options, as illustrated]
KC-767 to benefit from 787 “surge” line
Key points:
- The ability to increase production rates to sell more 767s in the coming years;
- Lower production costs, which will be built into the KC-X bid in the hot competition with the expected Northrop Grumman KC-30 submission.
Boeing’s proposed KC-767 refueling tanker will benefit from plans to establish a surge production line for the 787 program.
The connection is not obvious, for Boeing didn’t suggest as much when it announced that Charleston (SC) will be the location for the second 787 production line. As Line 2 is being established, Boeing will put a “surge” 787 line in Everett (WA), where Line 1 is located. The surge line will be in the forward bay where the 767 line is, requiring relocating the 767 line to the aft part of the bay.
Boeing sees new job cuts in 2010
Arabian Business quotes Boeing CEO Jim McNerney as saying more job cuts will be seen at the company next year as defense business declines.
Tanker DRFP may violate law: former procurement official
Inside Defense, a subscription-only publication, today reported that a former defense procurement official believes the current KC-X tanker Draft RFP may violate the law. Here is what Inside Defense sent out in the public domain:
Former Top Procurement Official Questions KC-X Compliance with New Acquisition Law
The Pentagon’s solicitation for the KC-X aerial refueling competition is inconsistent with the 2009 Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act and may violate the law, according to a former top federal procurement officer.
That critique, by Robert Burton, a former deputy administrator of the Office of Federal Procurement and Defense Department veteran, comes as a powerful lawmaker and a key architect of the recently enacted weapon systems acquisition reform law — Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — is raising questions about whether the KC-X draft request for proposals, issued on Sept. 25, complies with the new act.
Boeing to build 737 into 2020s: Bair
The Renton (WA) Reporter has this story that Boeing will continue to build the 737 into the 2020 decade, further extending the timeline for a replacement aircraft, says Mike Bair, vice president of Business Strategy and Marketing for the company.
This is highly significant on a number of levels. First, it tends to match the timeline Airbus has already foretold about a replacement for the A320 about 2024. Neither company can really afford to undertake yet another new airplane program, given the cost overruns and customer penalties for their respective A380, A400M, 787 and 747-8 programs. Airbus is also engaged in R&D for the A350, with a price tag of roughly $15bn. With engineering and production resources stretched already, there simply are limitations for Airbus on taking on an entirely new development program.
Prediction: Boeing offers KC-767
Update: Defense News just published this article detailing the continuing problems Boeing has with the KC-767 Italian tanker, including the centerline hose-and-drogue problems we previously exclusively revealed in this column.
Original Post:
With Boeing and Northrop Grumman still in the Q&A stage with the USAF in advance of a Final Request for Proposals in the KC-X competition, we predict that Boeing will offer the KC-767 and not the KC-777.
Here’s why: