Farnborough/Monday

Updates throughout the post, 415PM BST.

Here is a look ahead for Monday at the Farnborough Air Show and what might be expected for news and orders in the coming week. We’ll update this post at the end of the day.

Airbus

John Leahy on Saturday predicted at least 130 orders will be announced this week. Boeing thinks that if Leahy is predicting 130, he’s got a lot more up his sleeve. Leahy also predicted orders from leasing companies, signaling improving economies. See individual companies below.

Boeing

Randy Tinseth last week tried to downplay expectations that Boeing will have a large number of orders, falling back on the long-standing company line that it doesn’t play the “orders game” at air shows like Airbus does. Be that as it may, Boeing may have been setting the stage to exceed low expectations. The buzz is that Boeing may have more orders to announce than have been let on. See individual companies below.

Bombardier

If there ever was a set of high expectations, and ones that could be dashed, it’s for Bombardier. Aerospace analysts, journalists and bloggers have been predicting Qatar, China and maybe one or two others could announce orders. This is far from certain. Qatar is notoriously fickle and the Chinese are notoriously slow and may, in any event, want to announce any order at its own Zuhai Air Show in November. Because of expectations, Bombardier could well disappoint, and an interview by Bloomberg News with Bombardier may be setting the stage. A key excerpt:

Bombardier Inc. said some prospective buyers of its CSeries jet, aimed at the lucrative single-aisle market of Airbus SAS and Boeing Co., are still hesitant to place orders as the economy takes time to rebound. 

“A lot of our customers right now are waiting to see if the economy is going to recover, if they can get healthy financing, if they can afford to take on a couple of billion dollars worth of orders,” Guy Hachey, the president of Bombardier’s aerospace division, said in an interview Sunday.

Update: BBD held its press briefing and sure enough, no CSeries orders were announced. Sure enough, U-Turn Al held off, citing issues with Pratt & Whitney, according to Market Watch.

COMAC

The Chinese government said it is encouraging the Big State state-influenced airlines, Air China (wholly owned by the state), China Southern and China Eastern to buy at least 100 C919s from the state-owned COMAC (talk about government subsidies…). But don’t look for that at Farnborough. Zuhai is the more likely venue.

Embraer

Embraer has a real problem on its hands. The still reasonably-new E-Jet is already being eclipsed by the prospect of the CSeries. The E-195X stretch to 15 seats is now off the table. Does EMB re-engine or replace the E-Jet? Don’t look for much action at Farnborough as Embraer sorts this out.

Update: Sukhoi: An order for up to 65 Superjets is expected. Superjet has a press conference on Tuesday.

Companies-Airlines

Few airlines have been the subject of pre-air show buzz but here are those that have:

Update: Aeroflot, 11 A330-300s.

Emirates

Ordinarily Emirates is a big air show news-maker but for Airbus, this wad was shot at the Berlin Air Show with the announced order for 32 A380s. Emirates itself said it will announce orders here, and word leaked over the weekend it will be for 20 777s. But both orders are said to be essentially a dollar-volume transfer of orders from the failing DAE Capital, which has orders for 100 Airbuses and 100 Boeings of single-, twin-aisle and cargo airplanes.

Update: Ordered 30 777-300ERs but 18 of these were previously ordered and Unidentified.

Qatar

The head of Qatar, Al-Bakar, is known in some circles as U-Turn Al because of his reputation of scheduling press conferences for exciting announcements only to cancel. Most notoriously, at one air show (Farnborough two years ago), Boeing issued a press release announcing 777 orders to Qatar, only to retract it in a highly embarrassing public relations snafu. The order was reality; no outsider ever figured this one out.

Al-Bakar was quite public that he was negotiating with Bombardier for the CSeries for an order of up to 50, but negotiations have been running hot-and-cold. Qatar has two press conferences schedule—one right after today’s Bombardier briefing—to announce “exciting” news, but don’t count out U-Turns once again.

Update: See Bombardier; 777-300 order expected this week.

Companies-Lessors

Airbus’ Leahy said lessors will be back and John doesn’t make these predictions lightly.

Air Lease Corp.

This is Steve Hazy’s new company. Word is orders are forthcoming from his with Airbus (perhaps 20+20 A320s, though weekend news reports put the number at 50) and Boeing (50+50, likely 737s). While still at ILFC, Hazy had some nice things to say about the CSeries. Don’t rule out an order from him, though whether it’s done at the Air Show remains to be seen and probably a long-shot.

Update: 31 A320s, 20 A321 Sharklets. Engines CFM and IAE mix. Boeing order expected tomorrow.

Avalon Leasing

This is a brand new, and not widely known company, and it has raised several billion dollars in capital. Could this be the time to make a splash?

GECAS

Earlier press speculation suggests GECAS may place orders. Given ties to Boeing, the Seattle company would likely benefit. But Airbus could too.

Update: 60 A320 family, 40 737-800s. Not surprisingly, all engines are CFM.

RBS Aviation Capital

Earlier press speculation has RBS announcing orders, but if it does, they will probably be ones that were placed previously and have been in the Unidentified listings at Airbus and Boeing. RBS has about 50 A320s and 737s ordered already that have never been announced.

12 Comments on “Farnborough/Monday

  1. 61 orders for today I guess for Airbus, so almost half-way to their week’s target.

  2. The only reason Leahy is making such a prediction for 130 new aircraft is he already has those orders. This is an old Airbus trick they have used for years and the only reason they do it this way is to grab headlines.

    • So? I don’t think any of the two large airframers is averse to spinning opportunities that have no larger meaning for a bit of PR. I seem to recall a certain event on 7/8/7 in Seattle? :p

    • Another trick stolen from Boeings toolbox,
      nothing original out of OldEurope,
      ………………….. right TopBoom?

      On the third hand there is no BuyAnAircraft Drive In around,
      due to most purchases being a carefully premeditaded endevour
      with a lot of detailing taking its toll on time passed. Airliners just are not
      convenience items.
      This obviously takes any surprising uncertainty on the participant sides
      out of those presented sales announcement.
      Be it an Airbus Airfair Selling Spree
      or the Boeing ShareHolder Meeting ValueBolstering.

    • And the reason Airbus has had more sales for most of the last few years? Oh, of course you will say underbidding!!

      Aye, but here is the rub. WTO says that has not happened.

  3. I am quite curious to see how many 787 orders will come out during this show.

    Or will there actually even be any?

    • There is talk about 24 787 from BA for delivery in 2012.
      ( But that does look identical to what BA already ordered in Sep. 2007 )

      But 40++ 77W have been sold.
      My guess no unruly pushing in the 787 customer queque bebore
      actual EIS+6month. And then may be only towards the exit.

  4. According to the Seattle Times article referred to in your Sunday post, the thirty 777’s were substitutes for a different set of 70 Boeing narrow bodies and 30 widebodies. In the same way, the 32 A380’s were a substitute for the same number of Airbus narrow bodies and widebodies.

    This makes a 1 to 1 exchange rate between the 777-300ER and the A380, which is twice the size. Am I right about this?

    • Or, since 18 were previously ordered, the exchange rate is 32:12. Or probably, it is far more complicated than that.

  5. Been to Farnborough today. It was a good day, hot, sunny with some great static and flying displays. First, the 787 looked great, I was really pleased to see it. From what I hear it will leave tomorrow or Wednesday with a fly pass over RR in Derby. The flying displays were excellent. It was the first time I saw A400M in flight and was impressed. A380 displays are always great, just the size of it in the air is awesome.
    As for Mr. Boom’s “the only reason they do it this way is to grab headlines” comment… So what? The airshows *are* there to attract maximum publicity and headlines for the company and its products. Just going around talking to different people, you can see how passionate and proud they are about their company. Do you think Boeing set up huge chalets there, just to make up the numbers? What is really funny is that Boeing and its supporters are constantly complaining that Airbus doesn’t do things they way they do… No, they don’t, get used to it.

    With today’s total of 51+11+60=122, Leahy is already close to his total. Although something tells me he has a few more surprises up his sleeve, otherwise he wouldn’t be Leahy! 🙂

  6. 133 firm orders for Airbus. Leahy has his finger on the pulse. 😉

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