Updates throughout the post, 415PM BST.
Here is a look ahead for Monday at the Farnborough Air Show and what might be expected for news and orders in the coming week. We’ll update this post at the end of the day.
John Leahy on Saturday predicted at least 130 orders will be announced this week. Boeing thinks that if Leahy is predicting 130, he’s got a lot more up his sleeve. Leahy also predicted orders from leasing companies, signaling improving economies. See individual companies below.
Randy Tinseth last week tried to downplay expectations that Boeing will have a large number of orders, falling back on the long-standing company line that it doesn’t play the “orders game” at air shows like Airbus does. Be that as it may, Boeing may have been setting the stage to exceed low expectations. The buzz is that Boeing may have more orders to announce than have been let on. See individual companies below.
If there ever was a set of high expectations, and ones that could be dashed, it’s for Bombardier. Aerospace analysts, journalists and bloggers have been predicting Qatar, China and maybe one or two others could announce orders. This is far from certain. Qatar is notoriously fickle and the Chinese are notoriously slow and may, in any event, want to announce any order at its own Zuhai Air Show in November. Because of expectations, Bombardier could well disappoint, and an interview by Bloomberg News with Bombardier may be setting the stage. A key excerpt:
Bombardier Inc. said some prospective buyers of its CSeries jet, aimed at the lucrative single-aisle market of Airbus SAS and Boeing Co., are still hesitant to place orders as the economy takes time to rebound.
“A lot of our customers right now are waiting to see if the economy is going to recover, if they can get healthy financing, if they can afford to take on a couple of billion dollars worth of orders,” Guy Hachey, the president of Bombardier’s aerospace division, said in an interview Sunday.
Update: BBD held its press briefing and sure enough, no CSeries orders were announced. Sure enough, U-Turn Al held off, citing issues with Pratt & Whitney, according to Market Watch.
The Chinese government said it is encouraging the Big State state-influenced airlines, Air China (wholly owned by the state), China Southern and China Eastern to buy at least 100 C919s from the state-owned COMAC (talk about government subsidies…). But don’t look for that at Farnborough. Zuhai is the more likely venue.
Embraer has a real problem on its hands. The still reasonably-new E-Jet is already being eclipsed by the prospect of the CSeries. The E-195X stretch to 15 seats is now off the table. Does EMB re-engine or replace the E-Jet? Don’t look for much action at Farnborough as Embraer sorts this out.
Update: Sukhoi: An order for up to 65 Superjets is expected. Superjet has a press conference on Tuesday.
Few airlines have been the subject of pre-air show buzz but here are those that have:
Update: Aeroflot, 11 A330-300s.
Ordinarily Emirates is a big air show news-maker but for Airbus, this wad was shot at the Berlin Air Show with the announced order for 32 A380s. Emirates itself said it will announce orders here, and word leaked over the weekend it will be for 20 777s. But both orders are said to be essentially a dollar-volume transfer of orders from the failing DAE Capital, which has orders for 100 Airbuses and 100 Boeings of single-, twin-aisle and cargo airplanes.
Update: Ordered 30 777-300ERs but 18 of these were previously ordered and Unidentified.
The head of Qatar, Al-Bakar, is known in some circles as U-Turn Al because of his reputation of scheduling press conferences for exciting announcements only to cancel. Most notoriously, at one air show (Farnborough two years ago), Boeing issued a press release announcing 777 orders to Qatar, only to retract it in a highly embarrassing public relations snafu. The order was reality; no outsider ever figured this one out.
Al-Bakar was quite public that he was negotiating with Bombardier for the CSeries for an order of up to 50, but negotiations have been running hot-and-cold. Qatar has two press conferences schedule—one right after today’s Bombardier briefing—to announce “exciting” news, but don’t count out U-Turns once again.
Update: See Bombardier; 777-300 order expected this week.
Airbus’ Leahy said lessors will be back and John doesn’t make these predictions lightly.
Air Lease Corp.
This is Steve Hazy’s new company. Word is orders are forthcoming from his with Airbus (perhaps 20+20 A320s, though weekend news reports put the number at 50) and Boeing (50+50, likely 737s). While still at ILFC, Hazy had some nice things to say about the CSeries. Don’t rule out an order from him, though whether it’s done at the Air Show remains to be seen and probably a long-shot.
Update: 31 A320s, 20 A321 Sharklets. Engines CFM and IAE mix. Boeing order expected tomorrow.
This is a brand new, and not widely known company, and it has raised several billion dollars in capital. Could this be the time to make a splash?
Earlier press speculation suggests GECAS may place orders. Given ties to Boeing, the Seattle company would likely benefit. But Airbus could too.
Update: 60 A320 family, 40 737-800s. Not surprisingly, all engines are CFM.
RBS Aviation Capital
Earlier press speculation has RBS announcing orders, but if it does, they will probably be ones that were placed previously and have been in the Unidentified listings at Airbus and Boeing. RBS has about 50 A320s and 737s ordered already that have never been announced.