Embraer v Bombardier: While Airbus and Boeing gain the most attention and headlines, there is another hotly competitive sector: Embraer and Bombardier in the 90-125 seats market. Bloomberg has this item examining the competition here.
Boeing Delivers 601 Aircraft: Buoyed by 46 787s, Boeing delivered 601 aircraft last year, which by this metric means Boeing will best Airbus. Airbus won’t announce its 2012 results until January 17, but is expected to finish with around 580 deliveries.
Boeing ended 2012 with 1,203 net orders, including 914 for the 737 MAX and 1,124 for the 737 family. Through November Airbus recorded 585 net orders. Even with the famed “fifth quarter,” when Airbus is known to announce a whole slew of orders that in the past has overcome Boeing’s apparent lead, we don’t see John Leahy pulling this rabbit out of his hat this time.
Just as 2011 saw Airbus record record orders with the A320neo success, Boeing’s total was boosted by converting commitments to orders. The MAX program ended the year with 1,064 orders. The A320neo has more than 1,500 orders through November.
Boeing clearly won this year with orders and deliveries.
It seems Airbus had a good fifth quater, easily beating their 2012 targets.
Indeed, this was a good year for Boeing. Now 2013 will be about making good on everything they’ve said they can do. I see four major tasks for them to focus on this year:
1. Continue this year’s progress on the 787 production rate
2. Get the 787-10 moving with a strong launch, and keep the -9 on schedule
3. Hit some significant early milestones for the 737MAX, and keep fighting for the new orders
4. Make a final determination on what form the 777 upgrade/replacement will take, and get it launched
I tought there were at least 1030 orders for the B-737MAX in 2012, including an order for about 60 from aviation capital leasing company at the end of December. Gross orders were nearly 1340 aircraft, but some 138, or so were canceled. Gross orders for the B-737 family were about 1185 and some 60 cancels.
You’d be almost correct if you were talking about total firm 737MAX orders in Boeing’s books, which as of 31-Dec-2012 stand at 1064. However, the firm order intake for 737MAX in 2012 was “only” 914.
Scott’s numbers are correct. Here’s a more detailed breakdown of 737 numbers for 2012, as per boeing.com as of 31-Dec-2012. Firm orders only.
737NG total: 270
737MAX total: 914
737 gross total:1184
737 cancelled: -60
737 net total: 1124
It’s good to see Boeing coming back on top. But this was to be expected since Airbus is nearly sold out. If there was a third player the dynamic would be entirely different. I hate duopolies because it’s so predictable. A triopoly would be more unstable, but also more exiting.
What’s more significant is the number of deliveries. The fact that Boeing has the ascendant this year means that it finally got its house in order. And I expect the trend to continue next year, but with a smaller margin, as Airbus ramps-up A380 production.
But I am not so sure who will lead for orders in the coming year(s). We may have entered some sort of twilight zone where the two manufacturers cannot take substantial orders anymore, at least in the narrowbody department. There is also a world recession looming. And it’s still too early for the CSeries to make a dent in the A/B fortress.
I believe that Boeing will likely lead for the next 3-4 years as the lineup will look something like this:
737 456 at 38/month-560 at 42/month
747 24 at 2/month
767 12-18 at 1-1.5/month (primarily freighters)
777 100 at 8.3/month
787 84 at 7/month increasing to 10/m (possibly going to 14 a month? or more)
total around 682 (2013)
around 822 (2014)
I believe that Airbus will be constrained at roughly the same levels as this year at least until the a380 is straightened out and Mobile starts.
320 462 at 42/month x 11
380 24-30 ramping to 30-40?
330 121 at 11/month x 11
total around 607 (2013)
around 613-623 (2014)
The uncertainty will be if Boeing can ramp 787s up to 10 or more a year in 2013-14. It will take 2-3 years for Airbus to ramp up the 350 to 10/month beginning in late 2014-early2015 and even then that will only get them to around 700 aircraft a year…the a380 will need a shedload of orders/massive increase in production to make up the difference, which is unlikely…
You are quite right, with a couple of caveats. 1st: the economy remains stable (no new world war’s or plague 🙂 ). 2nd: that A&B stick to the recent production numbers that they have stated.
On a side note, I would NOT expect the 767 numbers to drop to those levels. They delivered 26 this year (up from 20 last year). They have, without significant commercial orders enough backlog to take them to the KC-46A production. 24 per year is more likely.
On the A380… AB said that they plan on delivering 60 in the next 2 years (less in 2013 as they fix the wing issue, and more in 2014). 2015 plan 36 per month.
interesting forecast. I know Airbus used to count 1 A380 as 7 A320 equivalents in terms of resources, manpower etc.
Deliveries of the past decades.
It seems Boeing made a jump while Airbus shows stable growth.
Stable growth… No. It shows that keeping or increasing production rates during market downturns, decreases your profit margins. As proven by lower market values / lease rates for your products. A quick look at Airbus financial statements clearly show that.
Different philosophies. Earlier we observed ( but Observer did not notice or rememeber ) that A vs B profit statements may be
less than directly comparable and that there exists a concerted
effort on Boeings side to pamper the appraiser and lessor ecology.
Lastly Boeings process of trashing the competition seems to be not without effect ( which does get increased scrutiny in the last month ).
Scott, you’ve been cited by Reuters here :
Scott is routinely cited in the media. That’s because his opinion counts in the aerospace community. Apparently ours also counts a little bit and that’s why he opens his blog for us to express it. So in this industry Scott acts as both a motor and a spark plug. We should perhaps call this site the Spark Blog. 🙂
LOL. Interesting analogy. Some people just say I piss on things. Looks like I’m pissing on a spark plug….
That sounds awfully painful 🙁
Make that “Invigorating” 😉
So total industry order to delivery rate is still >1.6:1. In fact, since 2005 the market overbooked 1.86:1 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Airbus-boeing_combinedcomparison_2011.png)
Also, it appears the 9 sep 2001 attacks had a larger impact on the business (both AB and BA) than the economic crisis of the last few years…
Finally, great work by Boeing – but only 79 bigger A/C. Any data on AB’s order split? Is this Boeings Point-to-Point prediction becoming reality? was the 787 to big, but are long range 737’s showing the world we need no more stopovers?
I don’t think that the advantage boeing has gained on airbus can be sustained for long.
To start with Airbus has made it a priority to take over all Boeing customers and they have been doing a good job. Just see how the kicked boeing out of Pegasus and bagged 100 aircrafts. There are also rumors that LionAir is going to order some A320 in this year.
WestJet of canada an all airbus operator will soon be shopping for new generation aircrafts and I don’t see them defecting to Boeing.
SpiceJet of India is also looking at the Neo for it’s fleet renewal and airbus is knocking on their door.
Secondly with the strike more than certain this year,Boeing production will take a big hit and it will be difficult to recover from it.
Thirdly,Boeing itself lacks aggression in the marketing of the 737 Max. Airbus has managed to sell all variants of the Neo319,320,321 but Boeing has recorded no order for the Max-7.
With the EIS of the 787-9 now firmely for 2014, the EIS of the 787-10 should have been around 2017-2018 since it is a simple stretch of the 787-9, but reports suggests that it will only happen around 2019-2020. This gives Airbus ample times to sell the A330 and probably increase production rate beyond the current rate.
Boeing must show resilience, aggression, boldness if they want to keep the lead over airbus for long, otherwise last year’s lead will just be a flash in the pan as the airbus jugernaut is moving forward to reclaim the top stop.
WestJet is a Boeing 737 operator, not Airbus.
Don’t let facts get in the way of a good venting rant.
I think during the last few months it has become clear (to many) there a lot of apples and oranges used to create public perceptions. Now and then someone defuses them, but the effect is only temporary. Probably folks want to believe stuff matching their preferences.
Can’t really take anything from the orders race this year, the 737 had to gain ground and it obviously did. Now both planes have had their initial “rush”, so 2013 should be the year where we get a balanced view.
One deliveries, considering Boeing(737, 747, 767, 777,787) have more to offer than Airbus(A320,A330,A380), Boeing are probably going to remain ahead till the A350 and A380 productions are better on track
With regard to airframes out the door, taking one year out of ten is a credible result, however delving just slightly deeper the annual production figures for the last twenty years indicate not inconsiderable YOY fluctuations for Boeing whereas Airbus has an almost unblemished record of YOY order & production growth.
Read into this what you will & argue about which would make a more valid business case in respect of consistant YOY growth & market penetration, can’t wait for 2015 which we’re working hard toward….
2015? Looking at the graph, my prediction for Airbus is ~620.
If Boeing keeps its rates up, I don’t see Airbus delivering more aircraft than them. Despite the talk of further rate increases, I think Airbus is pretty well at the upper limit of their output. I do not see this changing until at least Mobile is up and has advance enough to run at full output, but that is also quit dependant on the supply chain.
It is because of the supply chain that I have my doubts about the 787 reaching the 17 kper month rate that Boeing has been forecasting. Not unless Boeing puts up money for tooling and factory space to support such a ramp up. With all of the delays in the program, most of these suppliers are suffering financially.
Airbus had delivered more than 580 but the crown belongs to Boeing, no doubt, which is a great achievement. As far as orders are concerned, I am sure Leahy will pull a few rabbits out of his hat but it may not be enough to top Boeing. But then if it is not enough then why stretch yourself, keep it for 2013…
This one is an interesting link, surprised it was not noticed…