Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing, Airbus still struggle with supply chains and personnel shortages December 13, 2024
- Airbus procurement head “convinced” supply chain issues are on right path December 12, 2024
- CFM gets FAA and EASA certification for a more robust LEAP-1A turbine. December 10, 2024
- Global instability poses questions for aerospace industry December 9, 2024
- How Trump tariffs affected, and could affect, Airbus, Boeing and Embraer December 6, 2024
Airbus Group 3Q results; Increase of A320 production to 60 a month
By Bjorn Fehrm
Oct. 30, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group announced its increase of the production rate for the best-selling A320 range to 60 a month in conjunction with its 3Q
2015 results. The rate increase shall be seen against a backdrop of ever-increasing backlog for the A320neo, now at over 4,300 aircraft. The sales bonanza of the A320 is continuing with another 100 aircraft committed at Chancellor Merkel’s visit to China in October.
Airbus Group booked solid results for the third quarter, with order intake for Airbus for the year already secured in 3Q at 815 aircraft (791 3Q 2014). Noteworthy are the A330 bookings of 87 aircraft which have also continued in October with another 30 aircraft committed by China.
Revenue was up 6% to €43bn (€40bn 3Q 2014) and core operational EBIT was up 6.5% to €2.8bn compared to €2.59bn 3Q 2014. Free Cash Flow (FCF) was better than 3Q 2014, with €-1.8bn instead of €-2.1bn4. Airbus group expect FCF to be breakeven for the year.
Given the strong results Airbus Group has decided to buy back €1bn of shares before June 2016.
Details from the Airbus programs are:
A320neo
Strong sales have built the confidence for rate 60 from mid-2019. The Pratt & Whitney GTF flight test has had several interruptions but Airbus expects to deliver the first unit to Qatar Airways at the end of year.
A330
The rate of 6 per month is now fully covered with orders for 117 aircraft YTD, a relief for Airbus. A330neo program is on track for Q4 2017 delivery. With sales of the ceo covered, attention now turns to the A330neo.
A350
The ramp up of A350 is still a challenge, mainly due to cabin sub-suppliers having problems with delivery quantity and quality. The forecast for the year’s deliveries is still 15 units with “more than double that” for 2016.
A380
The YTD FCF and EBIT are positively affected by the A380 stopping to consume company cash. The guidance is to have breakeven on a unit basis for 2015. Nineteen A380s have been delivered during the first three-quarters.
Deliveries are secured until 2017 with sales campaigns working on the 2018 deliveries. Breakeven was 30 per year, for 2016 it is now below 30 and going forward, Airbus is working on improving that further.
A400M
The trouble child of the corporation. Still a struggle to deliver to customer commitments and with the agreed capabilities. Five A400M delivered so far. The A400M program is a clear burden on the FCF and results of the Airbus Defence and Space division.
Helicopters
Solid results despite a down market. Good sales of new helicopter products and good progress on increasing the after sales services revenues.
Probably a third line at HAM is easier / more efficient than a second at the other locations.
“A330neo program is on track for Q4 2017 delivery. With sales of the ceo covered, attention now turns to the A330neo.”
The current 100 A330 operators will have make a choice, go for the 787 family at higher costs / after 2021, upgrade to the A350 at higher costs / after 2021 or add used A330s.
No nonsense used fleet specialist Delta ordered NEO’s. Maybe being were fed up with Boeing played a role (787, Exim, JAL/ANA/EK friendships).
On the A400M although being a financial / schedule / political / crash disaster, I think it will be successful in a few years. Excellent capabilities and no competition helps a lot.
https://youtu.be/n_SJjXqoNq8?t=1m29s
I have checked boeing 787 orderbook. All but hawaiian,turkish and cathay pacfic haven’t ordered the 787(Delta has an order of 18 787 from northwest). So possible top orders from delta and hawaiian along with cathay and turkish.
A350 deliveries in 2016 will be “double” the 2015 number. That seems like an awfully small rate of increase!
How did Year 2 vs Year 1 deliverates compare for the 787, or even 777?
Boeing 777 deliveries: 13 in 1995, 32 in 1996, 59 in 1997 and 74 in 1998
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_777_operators#Orders_and_deliveries
–
787 deliveries: 3 in 2011, 46 in 2012, 65 in 2013 and 114 in 2014.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders_and_deliveries
I think the 787 had/has a kind of buffer being build up starting 2008..
From Wikipedia:
1995: 13 (first delivery: June 1995)
1996: 32
1997: 59
1998: 74
1999: 83
After that the rate hovered below 83 with sales numbers.
The rate increase was less than factor 2 year-over-year.
arbitrary year borders are problematic.
Either start counting years from first delivery or certification received ? or an inverse metric: look at ( average) number of days between deliveries.
Seems rather clear that the 350 has a lot of catching up to do. The “supplier problems” sounds familiar though.
Sad news: all 224 people aboard a Metrojet airliner died when it plunged out of the sky 23 minutes into it’s flight over Egypt…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/10/31/russian-plane-crash-egypt/74934010/
Condolences to all related to the victims.
From a technical point a remarkable accident. Aircraft tumbling down from 31k ft. Experienced crew. Crew was able to send out distress signals, got a diversions, discussed with TC. Both FDR’s are modern / extensive and seem intact, the wreckage seems complete. That helps an awful lot.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/31/russian-plane-crash-investigators-seek-cause-of-a321-crash#img-3
The fact the aircraft/ crew/ passengers creates all kind of rumours. For now it seems technical. We have to be patient.