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Introduction

Jan. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus A350 production rates are solid at 10/mo through 2022 but can’t support increasing them to the oft-discussed 13/mo, based on LNC’s analysis of the current backlog.

Airbus A330-900 and A350-900. Source: Airbus.

The backlog currently falls off sharply in 2023. At six years out, there is plenty of time to fill the production gap—in theory. The dearth of wide-body orders through the end of the decade could make this challenging.

The A330 is a near-term challenge.

According to an analysis of its backlog, only three-quarters of the delivery slots are filled in 2019 and fewer in 2020. The backlog begins to fall sharply in 2021.

Summary

• A350, like Boeing 787, is not achieving 1:1 book:bill.
• Like the 787, the A350 production is currently living off the backlog.
• A330neo sales are focus at Airbus this year. Delivery schedule falls off in 2019.