June 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: As we head into the final day of the Paris Air Show, Boeing has a commanding lead in announced orders and commitments over Airbus.
But we’re all waiting for the End-of-Show press conference at 11am Paris time for Airbus, where COO-Customers John Leahy has a long history of pulling a rabbit out of his hat, announcing three-digit orders to overcome Boeing’s lead.
Whether Leahy can pull this off remains to be seen. This is widely expected to be Leahy’s last Paris Air
Show before he retires this year. There is one big one left, the Dubai Air Show, in November.
In years past, the Airbus press conference was the swan song. Not this year.
Boeing launches its own End-of-Show press conference at 1pm. There will be an opportunity for officials to one-up Leahy’s magic trick, if he has one.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo has an excellent graphic from its report issued this morning before the show begins detailing orders and commitments from all the airframe OEMs. Most importantly, he lists the conversions of MAX orders to the MAX 10, so we can see what the true incremental gain is for Boeing.
It’s interesting how well the 787(-9) is doing, not only at Paris but in general. It really seems smaller TWINS with very long range are the core of the market today.
Ah yes. A big surge to replace the early 777’s , older A300’s and 767’s.
Same will happen around 2020-5, early 777-300ERs will be replaced by the 777X models.
Although I have my “gribes” with Airbus the A350-1000 could be a more appropriate replacement for the B777-300ER’s in future?
Just a personal view, no agendas.
The only real reason why the similar-sized 359 has not been selling nearly as well as the 789 during this Paris show is that Airbus simply don’t hv as many near-term(i.e. 5yrs or less) delivery slots available to sell as Boeing. And this is mainly due to 359 production ramp-up being far slower than Airbus’ original plan(principally Zodiac mucking up the 359 cabin supply chain).
Since the 1st 350 delivery 30mths ago, only 86 units hv been delivered today. In contrast, Boeing delivered 132 units of 787 to customers in its 1st 30mths despite a 3 mths delivery halt due to the worldwide grounding of the 787 fleet during that period.
On the other hand, the reason why 789/359 practically dominate longhaul aircraft sales in recent yrs is that both hv reached a technical point where they:
1. Offer per seat op cost previously available only fm far larger quads(e.g. 748i, 380) and even the largest twin(i.e. low cabin density 77W).
2. Hv long-range performance equal to or slightly better than those 3 far bigger boys.
Today, we’re already seeing 789/359 in more or less normal cabin density(i.e. not some extra-light payload premium configs to squeeze out more range) flying daily on ultra long sectors such as SFO->SIN that were previously off-limits even for the big boys. When op costs are equal, airlines always prefer to fly fewer pax to more places more often than more pax to fewer places less frequently….
Iberia are replacing their A340’s with A330’s CEO’s afaik, which further bolsters the argument that higher frequency of flights is more preferred. The A321 NEO LR, the NMA are further evidence. High frequency lower density point to point looks to be the way of the future. But yet Airbus are still hoping for the A380 to make a comeback. I dont see it but who knows. It might have its place.
Your Boeing figures do not exclude conversions as otherwise indicated
According to Flight Global through 3 days 133 MAX-10 orders are new and not conversions.
Your Boeing figures do not exclude conversions as otherwise indicated
Was hoping for significant (50+) CS1/300 orders.
So far 330NEO’s zero as is for 787-10’s. Think one of these could feature in the last press conferences?
So, after a quick (didn’t check) count in my head, actual new firm orders look close to half/half numbers wise (Boeing leading), with Boeing relying overwhelmingly on LOI/MOU and the conversions to get to the headline figure.
If I was Leahy’s successor I’d hope he’d hold back LOIs/MOUs so that I could announce more firms at a changing of the guard show or my first solo show.
Leahy is not going to hold anything back so that someone else can claim the glory.
Would love if its the launch of the A321Plus (A322) with new wing? Could burst the MAX10 bubble.
Well you know he has something up his sleeve for the last day… 🙂
We should know in a couple of hours.
Was wondering about the larger China based carriers and the A380Plus?
But why wait until the last day to launch such a 321Neo+(or the mythical 322) to burst the Max10 bubble?
I mean why not just squash the Max10 immediately on day1 of the show so it had no chance to make any sales thunders/noises for any potential customers to pay attention to it? All the PR noises generated during the show would be about how the 321Neo+/322 slaughtered the Max10 in terms of order commitments fm the mkt…isn’t that a much better strategic outcome?
Hold the launch until last minute just for the sake of drama/entertainment? But this is a billions $ industry we are talking about. Most importantly, I refuse to believe any customer seriously interested to buy a new large narrowbody design does not know by now Airbus will launch it in the nex 24hrs but still ordered Max10 over the past few days…
You right, just hoped for something positive from Airbus.
Now it seems that the Airbus bubble has popped.
Why do you state that Geo? Is it personal knowledge through acquaintance of Leahy, other experience, considered opinion?
Top sellers I’ve known have more often than not wanted to see their protege get off to an excellent start. On that basis, and with no personal knowledge of Leahy, I believe there is a good chance he will do the same (ie would not seek to ‘claim the glory’ as you put it).
And on my favourite subject, A320NEO vs MAX8. Assumed a 50/50 split in the GECAS 320 family order and not accounting for unidentified MAX orders and the Ryanair 200’s (there could be mistakes), I get the following;
Maybe he will have some news on the limping A320NEo , or why the A321NEo is not starting service although it got a certification and maybe he is going to have some exciting news about the scrapping of quite new 3 Cathay A340/300 announced in the beginning of the week. What I ask myself in light of last week will European Legacy carriers (like Lufthansa ) stick with the A320 and support Airbus with their jobs.
A321neo has been flying passengers for Virgin America for several weeks. I think the first passenger flight may have been on 5-31-17, if not then, it was sometime in the first week of June. I believe that Virgin America currently has two A321neo’s flying passengers, N921VA and N922VA. See links below.
I just re-read one of the articles that I posted a link to, Virgin America’s first passenger flight with the A321neo was on 5-31-17.
You are right. Very low key . Skipped my attention. Thanks.
Just saw this tweet from Bombardier – looks like the CSeries had a little success at PAS (although I would like to have seen a big order)
Commercial AircraftVerified account @BBD_Aircraft 49s49 seconds ago
Great news! @IlyushinFinance signs agreement on lease for six #CS300 / Bonne nouvelle! Bail pour six #CS300 #PAS17 http://bit.ly/2rU7Thj
Nice overview from Wells Fargo. The one thing missing: which of these orders were already announced as “unidentified customers”. I don’t think it’s so many (I had a count of 22 as of yesterday morning), but it still matters
Who is this, 125 (+50) for MAX8?
Boeing has just announced an order from Aer Cap for 15 Max-10’s
Boeing AirplanesVerified account @BoeingAirplanes 14m14 minutes ago
The #737MAX 10 launch group continues to grow! Thanks @AerCapNV for ordering 15. http://bit.ly/BoeingPAS17 #PAS17
If Mr. JL can pull the bunny out of the hat at this PAS hats of to him.
For such a ‘compromised platform’ the MAX seems to be doing rather well. Boeing have just picked a year’s production (@ 60) in one show to add to the 6/7 year backlog they already have. For all the talk of Boeing’s imminent demise (ha) it appears that they have their mojo back
I think CFM must be smiling, but also have a serious look how they have to increase production.
Service agreements on the LEAP’s must be worth a fortune?
PAS is usually a place where Airbus shows its fangs, but even as an Airbus fan I have to say that this year Boeing came back with a deafening roar – and in Airbus territory no less.
Airbus’ meows were barely audible
Same here, the MAX8 is outselling the A320/NEO by a significant margin.
I was going on about the A320Plus for quite some time but people basically told me to keep my mouth shut.
To late now, MAX8 (and 320NEO?) replacements will be a Boeing NSA.
I guess it’s too much to ask for the UK Serious Fraud Office to close the show with the results of their Airbus investigation– and a delightful show “perp walk”. LOL
Big misstake that Airbus only have one FAL for the A350. They should have built one in HAM parallell, now Boeing can outproduce them and when they start to ship the 787-10 it will become even more obvious. The French would not have the competition on production and productivity from the Germans on the widebodies yet. As the Germans can easier hire top notch car manufacturing experts to automate the production easier then what can be done by French engineers in Toulouse. Now Airbus can only compare to Boeing. With a German FAL the reason for early Geman competition to Zodiac would happened and todays quality problems and delivery problems would have been solved quickly.