Nov. 5, 2018, © Leeham News: With a backlog of more than 4,700 737 MAXes and pressure to increase the production rate beyond 57/mo, an analysis of the backlog shows why Boeing has plenty of room left to sell more 737s and push rates to 63 or even 70/mo.
Current 737 operators have only placed MAX orders to replace 56.5% of the airplanes in service. This compares with 77% of the A320 family ratio.
The resulting 3,430 airplanes Boeing potentially can sell, when divided equally between 2020 through 2029, comes to 381 airplanes per year. Even at increased production rates to 63/mo in 2020 and 70/mo in 2021, Boeing would not be able to fulfill these orders.
There wouldn’t be surplus production slots until 2024 at this evenly distributed assumption. Realistically, deliveries have to concentrate between 2023 and 2029.