Pontifications: China still needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China

By Scott Hamilton

July 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The July 1 announcement by Airbus that it won orders for 292 airplanes from China, for the Big Three carriers, was treated as a shocker by some.

Boeing, which has been frozen out of the Chinese market since 2017, blamed geopolitical issues for its dry spell. To be blunter, blame it on former President Donald Trump, who began a trade war with China that inexplicably continues well into the first term of the Biden Administration.

Trump’s shoot-from-the-lip foreign policy routinely failed to consider geopolitical issues. Joe Biden is more thoughtful, but 18 months into his presidency has done little to repair relations with China. To be sure, there must be a balance when dealing with China and trade.

The country routinely engages in cyber-based industrial espionage, and this must be stopped. Honoring intellectual property rights is mere rhetoric by Beijing. But about a third of orders for Airbus and Boeing historically come from China. Boeing has about 140 737 MAXes in long-term storage destined for China. Despite global air traffic recovery, China’s zero-tolerance policy toward COVID continues to suppress domestic demand, another factor in Boeing’s storage problem.

But geopolitics is a real issue. Here’s what Boeing said following the Airbus order:

Reaction to the Airbus deal
  • [The] announcement is an example of how constructive dialogue between governments encourages job creation and the other benefits that result from open aerospace markets. As a top US exporter with a 50-year relationship with China’s aviation industry, it is disappointing that geopolitical differences continue to constrain US aircraft exports. We continue to urge a productive dialogue between the governments given the mutual economic benefits of a thriving aviation industry. Boeing aircraft sales to China historically support tens of thousands of American jobs, and we are hopeful orders and deliveries will resume promptly.
  • Boeing is standing by to deliver more than $10bn worth of fuel-efficient aircraft that have been produced and are sitting on the tarmac, ready for customers in the Chinese market. There has been a delivery bias (2021: 150 Airbus deliveries, three Boeing deliveries; 2022: 47 Airbus deliveries, one Boeing delivery) and order disparity.
Airbus’ work in China

Yet there is another reason Airbus is doing better than Boeing in China. Airbus was more aggressive than Boeing since the 1990s to place work in China. As I write in my book, Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, Airbus concluded that opening an A320 final assembly line would boost sales. The factory is a duplicate of the Hamburg A320 FAL. There are several major component centers in China, including one for A320 wings. An A330 finishing center was opened shortly before the pandemic.

Boeing opened a 737 finishing center in China only a few years ago. Contracted work from Boeing preceded that of Airbus, but the latter has since been more willing to put work in China. Boeing declined to contract with China for substantial 787 work, fearing IP theft. Airbus was certainly cognizant of this risk when planning the A320 FAL, but claimed good protections were in place. Nevertheless, within the first year of operation, the plant was the target of a half dozen cyber-attacks. Boeing considered opening a 737 FAL in China. But the powerful labor union, the IAM 751, nixed the idea.

Outstanding orders

In addition to the 140 MAXes in storage, there are some 787s that have been built and awaiting delivery. (The technical issues with the 787 preclude delivery anyway.) There are 142 identified unfilled orders destined for China. This includes 21 777Xs for Cathay Pacific Airways, six 777Fs for Hong Kong Aviation, and 11 787s. It’s believed there are more orders in Boeing’s Unidentified Customers listing. (We don’t know how many of the MAX and 787 orders have been built and are in storage compared with this list.)

LNA already has Cathay’s 21 777Xs on our “orders at risk” analysis. (We think the entire airline is at risk of future viability, too.) Should all the China orders be placed on our “at-risk” list? LNA’s Vincent Valery thinks so. I don’t. I still think that eventually China will take all the MAXes and 787s in storage and resume placing orders. Airbus, and China’s COMAC, can’t possibly fulfill future demand. China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China.

In the meantime, it’s yet one more challenge Boeing faces on its long climb out of a deep hole for recovery.

Air Wars

Royal Aeronautical Society

Named to the Top 10 List of Aerospace Books for Christmas Choices, 2021

Puget Sound Business Journal

(Seattle area.) No. 1 on the Christmas list of aerospace books for 2021.

BookAuthority

No. 1 on its list of Best New Aerospace eBooks to read in 2022.

Chris Sloan, The Airchive

“A worthy successor to ‘The Sporty Game,’” the 1982 book by John Newhouse, considered at the time to be the definitive book about the competition between Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, and the emerging Airbus.

Jim Sheehan, Aviation Industry Consultant

There is so much model and OEM information that it is for sure going to become required reading for anyone who wants to understand the last fifty or so years of commercial aviation.

Loved all of the quotes and stories.

Dan Catchpole, Aviation Writer

Air Wars is a tour de force look behind the curtain of Boeing and Airbus’ global competition and, in part, a biography of Airbus’ head salesman, John Leahy, the man who forced Boeing’s hand to re-engine the 737. Longtime aerospace analyst and journalist Scott Hamilton takes readers through the twists and turns of the decades-long battle between the two companies.

Dan Reed, Aviation Writer

Using John Leahy’s long and monumental career as a vehicle for telling readers about the 51-year battle between Airbus and Boeing is both an interesting and inspired choice by the author.

Air Wars is available in paperback and eBook form at Amazon and in paperback at Barnes & Noble.

456 Comments on “Pontifications: China still needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China

  1. The operative word in this article is “need”.
    However, a “need” can be ignored, or its fulfillment can be postponed, or it can be satisfied in other ways — particularly when pride is involved.

    The ongoing soured relationship between China and Australia is an example of China’s patience when it comes to making a point.

    One can assert that China might “need” Boeing, but that doesn’t mean that China will be coming to Boeing any time soon: it will first exhaust every other possible way of fulfilling its “need” before considering any change in stance.

    ***********

    On the political front, China and the rest of the world have to contend with the possibility that there may be a second 4-year dose of Trump coming in 2025. At the very least, I can imagine that China — and many others — won’t be changing any present policies until there is more clarity on this point.

    • China’s “patience”? You make it sound like viciousness and systematic vindictiveness of the most powerful and totalitarian dictatorship the world has ever known is a virtue.
      Let me explain. China is a one party totalitarian government of elites with blood ties to the Communist Party.
      Totalitarian governments can not tolerate criticism of any kind or of their mistakes. It’s an existential threat to them. It’s not ‘patience’ its maniacal vindictiveness born of unlimited power. Officials believed that COVID was transmitted by frozen meat in containers and had many other unscientific assumptions kept China in lockdown that shutdown their country. These were absurdities but rather than acknowledge their mistakes they simply doubled down. Any criticism is receives and extreme response. Arrests of people for stories about wolves and sheep’s clothing for instance. People disappear for 3 years without lawyers, trials or contact with family.
      This is the regime you laud on these pages.
      I am proud I am citizen of a country that will defend Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea from Chinas outrageous claims that take its economic maritime zone all the way to the limit of the Philippine archipelago even if it means having to buy and build nuclear submarines and develop hypersonic missiles.
      Australia China tensions grew out of a “Foot in Mouth” prime minster who said that their should be an international investigation of the Wuhan institute. The problems would exist anyway. There is a new left wing government now. Looking as naive and foolish as the last in a different way.
      I’ll certainly support the United States for taking a stand on maritime rights of navigation and human rights where nations of weaker resolve don’t spend the money to protect even their own independence but rely on others who they see themselves as morally superior too. Much of Europe would be flattened by Russian Artillery if it weren’t for the USA. Boeing is taking a hit because the US is standing up. If it means preferring Boeing then I will prefer Boeing and a lot of people will feel the same.

      • This is the kind of out-of-touch Eurocentric (the US is run by Europeans) “analysis” which leaves the west on the brink of irrelevance, with ideologically empty attacks on their eastern competitors. It didn’t work with Japan in the 1980s when Japan swamped the US and global markets with its top-quality consumer and industrial goods including its cars, VCR’s, television sets, stereos (with transistors developed at MIT) and virtually wiped out US electrical and electronic consumer goods manufacturers. Attacks on Japan’s manufacturers did not save the US whose consumers decided the matter by buying Japanese. It won’t work now with China which is beating the US in every sphere, including in space. China does not need to steal IP from the US when it has millions of its engineering students and post-graduates in US, Canadian, UK, German and Russian universities getting exactly the same education and training as their western counterparts. How can the west be so blind to these simple realities? Huawei, ZTE, and all the other ICT companies, train their engineers at MIT and Stanford and other top western institutes, with Chinese students tops in maths, technology and science, so why would China need to steal anyone’s IP when they can acquire it legitimately through education and training? In any case, most of the technologically advanced goods are now produced in Chinese factories by Chinese hands, so why would China have to steal IP when it’s all laid in their hands by western designers? As for Taiwan, the US will not dare get into a shooting war with China over its own territory. When Chiang Kai Shek fled the mainland to Formosa (now Taiwan), he continued to proclaim himself, and the US continued to recognise him, as the legitimate President of all of China, not just Taiwan. In that capacity, as the government of all of China including the mainland, the KMT continued to be recognised at the UN as the government of China. It is disingenuous for the US media to now pretend that somehow, Taiwan became a separate country or state even when the governments of Taiwan continue to claim legitimacy as the government of China somehow betrayed by the US in 1971. The US accepts, officially, the One China Policy. Therefore it is utter ignorance of anyone to imagine that the US “will defend Taiwan from China”. China does not need to go to war to reintrgrate Taiwan; it will happen peacefully when Taiwan realises, and the US acknowledges, that America will not lift a finger to protect one group of Chinese politicians from another. If the US and China can do business unhindered by silly ideologies, Taiwan will go back to Mother China, kicking and screaming “democracy and human rights”, but will re-integrate. Taiwan has no choice, it is part of China and the US accepts it, despite the bellicose rhetoric. Come to think of it, Zelensky believed that the US would defend Ukraine. Look where Ukraine is today – headed for a humiliating defeat and loss of territory.

      • > .. You make it sound like viciousness and systematic vindictiveness of the most powerful and totalitarian dictatorship the world has ever known is a virtue.. <

        Odd then, that the West's ruling classes pointedly chose to move the great majority of our productive capacities to that country.. it wasn't an accident.

        "Oops!" : sure, sure.

  2. It seems Boeing is blaming others, I think many see “self-inflcted” as a major factor. For year Boeing leaned on Washington politics to ensure U.S. Trade Deficit driven sales as US #1 exporter. They were never shy in that area.

    On the MAX, 787 and 777x exports to Chin there is another factor shining through, that many love to ignore; Quality. Remember who pulled the plug on the 737MAX first after the crashes. And rightfully too.

    Maybe there something of an attitude problem, that China is sensitive for.

    • > It seems Boeing is blaming others, I think many see “self-inflcted” as a major factor. <

      • Reality is a combination of self inflicted but also Trump

        But Trump did not get it wrong nor did he get it wrong on NATO and who ponies up for what and benefits.

        The real problem is how you go about it and the relationship with China is impossible to manage as it currently stands.

        China points fingers at the historical past (and its true) but they then engage in the same behaviour. So what they prove is, it who is on top that makes right not the morales of any of it.

        A few years back the French were being noted as very bad actors in industrial espionage in the US. That has gone quiet.

        Maybe we are stealing as much from them now as they are from us?

        • What would the French have worth stealing? Possibly champagne formulas, and some seriously old nuke power tech? LOL

          • MO:

            Ohh, that is a cut to the quick.

            The do reprocess Nuke materials so maybe something along those lines.

          • The US is highly invested in (industrial) espionage on France, Germany, Europe in general.
            Apparently there is something worthwhile to steal.
            If you ask around here in Germany US spying is seen as the more direct threat. ( US patent law aids in “homesteading” those “liberated” foreign inventions.)

          • Americans engaging in industrial espionage? Hard to believe….none of us speak foreign languages.
            How could any of us ask a Frenchman for trade secrets without the guy busting out laughing at our accents?
            Maybe we do it electronically.

          • John:

            Well due to our unique diversity, there is not a language in the world we do not have on tap! They did a survey in Anchorage and I think we had 80 some languages spoken here.

            Oddly those are all emigrants trying to get away from where they were and did not want to settle in the EU (have to wonder why? – too close to the front lines for some for sure)

            But yea its all electronic. My sister in law was complaining about all the shredding she was having to do.

            Me? Just tear it up, throw it in the kitchen garbage. No one goes through the garbage anymore to steal your stuff. Its all available on line!!!!!~

  3. Geopolitics most certainly is a complicated issue.

    Bryce has a point that is probably easier to see from outside the USA; “second 4-year dose of Trump coming in 2025”, possibly substitute Ron DeSantis for Trump, but the international hesitancy remains.

    From the outside, it’s not very clear who the strongest potential Blue candidate for president is & just what their international policies would be.

    Internationally, it appears that 47 will very likely be a forgone conclusion – Red president adopting very similar international interactions to 45.

    Uncertainty is never good for the markets.

    Understand the importance of “Face” when dealing with China.

    The world we live in is global, being inward looking is going to be problematic.

    You see similar uncertainty regarding Russia or more specifically President Putin. When the “special military operation”, or to be more specific invasion of Ukraine is over, how soon do we anticipate the aircraft lessors dealing with Russian airlines again given their recent experiences?

    • Jakdak:

      All good observations and questions.

      I don’t put any credence in Face on China as the Soviets also have it as do all countries (remember the French accusations of betrayal of the US/UK and Australia when in fact they have been selling military equipment to the Soviets?)

      And while Putin is the current issue, Soviet population support is an aspect and they choose to go down that road when given a choice (once you dance with the Devil he is not going to let you go back to Heaven!)

      China has chosen to be confrontation and put a significant population into concentration camps (as did the US with its Japanese citizens in WWII, though Hawaii refused to do so). Factually for the US Internment Camps is more accurate though what it really was, a move by well to do of property seizure on the West Coast.

      I am proud of Alaska, when an American of Japanese antecedents had his family restaurant seized in our capital , the locals took it over, ran it and gave it back to him and his family with the profits after the war.

      And I never forget that the Japanese combat unit that fought in Europe in WWII and their incredible combat record.

  4. I think the notion that China needs Boeing is wrong. China has quite a tight grip on the local market and most local trips are completely sponsored by the state to stimulate domestic travel. Before needing Boeing China could dial this sponsorship down to suppress demands for new metal.
    I think the damage is done and Boeing is out of favour for the time being, it is the reality that they need to deal with.

    And as mentioned, Airbus has been more aggressive to achieve market-share in Asia. Both in India and China, they have the vast majority of the orders and deliveries. These will be the biggest markets in the next decades. Air India is also looking to place an order 300 at Airbus, which would put their market share in India to above 90%…

    • Another point that confirms your point “the notion that China needs Boeing is wrong ” is that the COMAC 919 will eventually come on the market.
      Very late, but on the market sweet spot, quite up to date technologies (compared to the 737) the LEAP engine, and a very strong backing from the powerful chinese government.
      Production rates will be pushed North very strongly, and it is not obvious that the Max chinese market share will be that high afterwards…

      • The C919 will probably need domestic engines, because the US may block LEAP engine exports — a short-term gain that will lead to long-term pain.

        • Bryce: China is pushing hard as possible to be free of Soviet and US engine sourcing as they can. Nothing new there, they steal as much as possible in the meantime.

          All:

          Leeham is a data driven operation despite Scott and his pondering s.

          The data they have clearly sows Airbus cannot supply China alone and the C919 if it ever sees serial production will only be limited number per year and it has a huge issue in that it cannot fly into any country that requires an internationally recognized aircraft certificates (EASA, FAA, Canada, Brazil, Japan)

          If China needs the MAX it will come to an accommodation.

          In the meantime, the MAX can fly into China.

          China typically socks up on orders in one lump group and then divvies those out (being a Dictator has its advantages) to the State owned Airlines.

          With a new Covid type sweeping the globe, where this all goes I have no answer for, just the possibles.

  5. at this point, the the US should be doing everything possible to break any dependencies on China. “Trade” with China is a one way street.

    Their government, time and time again, has shown that they are willing to do what it takes to undermine the US economy, oppress their own people (and several captive peoples), steal from their neighbors, ignore international law & boundaries and poison the air and water of the world.

    We have the resources, both financial and natural to cut them off from our markets and re-establish our own industrial base in the process.

    This will never happen though because our political class, on both sides of the aisle, is bought and paid for by corporate interests which only care about their stock price and annual bonuses.

    • “We have the resources, both financial and natural to cut them off from our markets and re-establish our own industrial base in the process.”

      You don’t have the necessary workforce: you’d have to import vast numbers of immigrants. The Chinese do a lot of work that Americans are no longer willing/able to do.

      Also doubtful if you have the financial resources: the US national debt is already $30 trillion, and 17% of all federal income went to debt interest payments in 2021. That situation worsens as interest rates rise and debt is continually rolled over.

      **********

      You do realize that — through foreign eyes — most traits in your second paragraph apply equally well to the US, don’t you?

      • Bilbo:

        Well put and yes we do have all the immigrants we need.

        Anyone see anyone wanting to emigrate to China? Funny how authoritarian regimes discourage that.

        China makes nothign that the rest of the world can’t. Trade will and is shifting.

        Its chip industry is run on US machines and US programing.

        All the US has to do is come up with a sane immigration policy and as the need gets driven deeper and deeper into corporations they will put their finger on their congressmen they own and that will be that.

        And while its been erratic, the US does have a long history of immigration from Europe, Mexico, Japan and China to name a few.

        • -> the US does have a long history of immigration from Europe, Mexico, Japan and China to name a few.

          Those were from the *history book*, weren’t they??

        • @ TW
          “Its chip industry is run on US machines and US programing.”

          How do you come to this conclusion? China has its own semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and there are also prominent vendors in Europe and Japan.

    • BA would have a bright future and more than enough financial resources for its next jet development when it has to cut itself off from >20% of the world market!

      • When the U.S /its biggest exporter can’t afford to pay local workers for the 737 MAX software, what more can you expect??

  6. “Trump’s shoot-from-the-lip foreign policy routinely failed to consider geopolitical issues. Joe Biden is more thoughtful, but 18 months into his presidency has done little to repair relations with China. To be sure, there must be a balance when dealing with China and trade.”

    Biden, thus the country and Boeing – has been backed into a corner by the current rhetoric tactics and cannot do anything with the trade war.

    If he does, the first thing Fox News, OAN, Newsmax et al will do, is claim:

    1) It has something to do with Hunter Biden
    2) He’s weak on China

    So, Boeing has to suffer.

    There’s another angle here too;

    Russia desperately needs China to take oil off it’s hands. If I was a betting man, I would say that China is getting a great price for providing this service. So much so, that they can afford to keep flying those older NG’s that airlines there have.

    Funny thing about the previous president:

    While on one hand he was vilifying China in public, touting his ‘easy to win’ trade war, behind the scenes he was securing patents over there for Ivanka’s clothing line and had his own clothing line made there.

    Charity starts at gome, I guess…

    • It is a well-known fact that Russia is offering up to $30 per barrel discount to customers such as China and India (and others); thanks to the price increase caused by the West’s self-sanctioning, Vlad still earns more per barrel than before the war — despite this discount.

      As regards flying NGs: any airline can continue to viably fly older aircraft as long as load factors are high and other costs are kept under control. With rising interest rates, one must also consider the increased capital costs of acquiring new aircraft — and offset these against potential savings on fuel use.

      Emirates appears to be perfectly happy to hang onto its fleet of A380s until 2035, despite the fact that they’re an older generation aircraft: prior to the pandemic, they generated 85% of the airline’s profits.

  7. Frank, I think you’re absolutely correct here “Russia desperately needs China to take oil off it’s hands.”

    But China will do what is in China’s interests. China has no interest in what the rest of the world thinks of them as long as it doesn’t get in their way.

    At the moment, they will happily take Russian oil, but it’s very conspicuous that they aren’t providing much back to Russia in return.

    As you say, I too think they’ve got a very good price for that oil & they will continue to abstain from direct criticism of Russia, but they are certainly not on the same side as Russia against Ukraine.

    China is interested only in China, this is not a good thing (inward looking…).

    • “At the moment, they will happily take Russian oil, but it’s very conspicuous that they aren’t providing much back to Russia in return.”

      Not so.

      Reuters: “Factbox: China-Russia trade has surged as countries grow closer”

      https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-russia-trade-has-surged-countries-grow-closer-2022-03-01/#:~:text=In%20the%20other%20direction%2C%20China%20sells%20mechanical%20products%2C,stood%20at%20%2467.6%20billion%20last%20year%2C%20up%2034%25.

      “China exports to Russia”

      https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports/russia

      • What I was referring to was support for their war against Ukraine.

        We have to wait & see what happens when Russia really starts to run out of tanks & artillery shells, aircraft components or western electronic components for military use.

        So far the signs are that there is a line China will not cross (as they will suffer a form of sanctions), but it’s all ultimately dictated by China’s interests.

        • Russia has a huge arms industry — why would it need military supplies from China?
          And if China were sending arms/parts to Russia, don’t you think they’d be clever enough to do that covertly?

          • Bryce:

            No, the Soviet Union is a huge den of thieves, Arms is one method they use to steal from the people of the State.

            Stuff paid for is not there. Some very good articles and Video on how it all works (well until you invade another country and you get your butt handed to you)

            One example is night vision goggles. The Soviet forces were supposed to be fully equipped by Soviet armaments factories . They have none they have not bought out of country

            The figures are 30-40% of equipment paid for and not delivered. Not over priced, not delivered. Some sectors are higher.

            They are now issuing Moisen Nangets that date back to WWI.

          • @TransWorld

            Lord of War was a great movie, wasn’t it? Sure, artistic liberties aside, some things ring true in what you say:

            “That’s not a 4 on your inventory sheet, that’s a 1. Better order some more…”

            (while I walk away with the other 75% – here’s your envelope)

            AK-47’s by the pound.

          • Frank:

            I am not familiar with Lord of War but I follow other sources, easier with the Soviets as its a leaky system unlike China that is tightly controlled.

            There seems to be some of the same thing in China where the Dictator uses anti corruption ops to remove people who do not support him for those that do.

            Putin has his footnote in history but contrary to the delusion, its not going to be Peter the Great!

            Marcos destroyed the Philippines (I was there at one time, saw how prosperous it had been, they never recovered) – Soviet Union is the Philippines writ large.

          • @TW
            “Soviet Union is the Philippines writ large.”

            Is that why the US is terrified of (inadvertently) provoking Russia further?

        • Many are worried the “West” can’t hold their breath for Ukraine much longer. It’s a hot topic in some circles.

          • Yes, the war ends in October, Germany needs its gas and has done nothing to reduce its energy consumption so far, not even simple things like actually setting a speed limit.

          • FT: Is the west running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?

            BTW roughly three weeks ago, Putin’s army running out of ammunition, according to *Western officials*.

          • The US and NATO has huge stockpiles of 155 mm ammo and MLRS/HIMARS rockets.

            The Soviets have huge stockpiles of 152 mm ammo and rockets (all very inaccurate stuff)

            What the Soviets lack is precision weapons. Ukraine now has the MLRS system and is reaching out and touching the Soviet front ammo supply

            The Soviets are indiscriminate as well as deliberate in targeting civilians of Ukraine.

            The Soviets are now using S-300 SAMS as a rocket to attack civilians, ergo, anything they had that was accurate is long gone.

            The EU put itself into this position of gas running out.

            All that was needed was to have a defense pact with Ukraine that did not involved NATO (France, UK and Germany would have done it though the Baltic States would have been all in) and this would not have happened.

            Of course getting addicted to Soviet Gas and to some degree oil is the main cause (well and free trade with a dictatorship though Kleptocracy is correct as well)

          • Those in the know are less confident: they don’t have much to move around and those they can spare are gone! Demand outstrips capacity to produce.

            If only our poster knows more, or just open the 👀.

        • Who’s friend? Who’s foe??

          -> FT: UK to cut pipelines to EU in gas crisis

          -> U.S. Senators asked DOE to limit NG exports and said shutting down LNG export facilities is in the best interest of their constituents.

          • UK: not surprising in view of the multiple crises there.

            US: actually makes no difference, because the US hasn’t secured enough LNG carriers to transport increased exports (yes, indeed, that was ovetlooked).

            A new gas contract has been signed between the EU and Qatar, and Kazachstan is planning to export more oil to the EU.

    • “China is interested only in China, this is not a good thing”

      How dare they, how unfair.. https://cdn.prod.elseone.nl/uploads/2016/07/ANP-46661125-1200×800.jpg?

      I think a less emotional, more objective approach could help. I think they are trying so, but as said less suitable for public (media) consumption.

      Never overestimate the knowledge and understanding of the broader electorate.

      I expect deliveries of 737/787 will resume, but some serious discussions, even leveled, first.

      • No issue with China being focused on itself, all countries are.

        Its when they focus on someone else or make ludicrous claims and then built fake islands to try to created the fig leaf that the issues begin.

  8. The only thing wrong about china’s zero Covid policy is that the west hates it because it is so obviously a success. Once the initial outbreak was contained, life in China went on unchanged. People went to restaurant, shows, technological meetings continued unchanged, life went on.

    In the West, anything but. Even if you want to ignore the >1 million dead Americans, (and lesser but still large death rates in the EU/UK), Long Covid affects more and more of the workforce as the west lets the infections rage without even lifting a finger to stop them. There will be a permanent damage to the west’s economics for the future.
    “Enter the Long Covid Sweepstakes! Up to four times per year to win!!”
    And oh yeah, repeat infections are usually worse than the one before.

    • marku52:

      That was Australia and New Zealand policy as well. they could manage it much better as they do not have direct borders.

      They gave it up.

      And Covid keeps evolving and another three types are sweeping the globe. You can’t keep it out forever. Each variant has been more transmissible.

      China can pull it off for a time as they are a dictatorship. What happens when the privatizations lead to starving people in large numbers and the riots begin?

      The populism has made that bargain that you let us have a decent life and we will not revolt. If the Communist do not keep that bargain, then Katy bar the door. There have been full on insurrections in smaller locals when the abuse got high enough.

      • There were flights in and out of Australia during COVID. It was limited to about 25 flights per day in Sydney as determined by quarantine facilities in Sydney. You were required to isolate 2 weeks in a hotel and receive room service.
        The ‘lock downs’ ended after most of the population had received a vaccination of some approved type. China didn’t accept western vaccines and relied on its own less effective vaccines.
        Lock downs were handled by State Governments to differing degrees. My Sate of NSW is ‘conservative’ so they were handled pragmatically in a pro business way. Generally you could go to work but not meetings in rooms most people worked from home using VPN/TEAMs/Zoom. Every Business had to have a COVID safety plan. You could keep working but there were restrictions like not having face to face meetings or wearing masks and hand sanitising gel.
        Concerts and such like were not allowed. Moving around the state to play sports was not allowed.
        Production continued. Restaurants were limited to 50% or of normal floor plan and staff had to wear masks and patrons had to wait for table service. uBer East became big.

      • Warning: Not Alt-reality

        -> Overseas travelers will only need to quarantine at a centralized facility, such as a hotel, for seven days upon arrival in mainland China, the National Health Commission announced Tuesday.

        Previously, overseas arrivals in China typically had to spend 14 to 21 days in centralized quarantine, depending on the city of entry and destination within the country.

        https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/28/china-cuts-quarantine-for-overseas-travelers-easing-covid-controls.html

      • “What happens when the privatizations lead to starving people in large numbers and the riots begin?”

        Are you referring to Jan 6?? What happened on that day?

  9. Time is not on Boeing’s side. MAXs in store depreciate and, with all the delays, China can’t contractually be forced to buy them.
    China continues to build out its high speed rail network – 25k miles at end of 2021, with 18k more planned by 2035. Air/Rail prices can be manipulated so that fewer travel by air.
    While Covid clampdowns depress travel, it makes sense for China to see how well the current air and rail networks serve demand and whether Airbus and COMAC orders will be enough.

    • “Time is not on Boeing’s side. MAXs in store depreciate”

      Boeing thought of this long ago. It’s held meetings with appraisers to argue that all the stored aircraft should be valued as new upon delivery.

      • Don’t airlines also have the “nuclear” option as the delay is well over twelve months??

        • Deposits have been paid. I have read nothing that says the Chinese have asked for those back (compensation is a different aspect)

          China is holding its cards close and will lay down the hand or continue t hold them depending on what the Chinese Communist Leadership decides (and the populous takes what they decide unless and until they don’t – or as the group on Flight 93 agree, what do we have to loose?).

          • From an analyst that I follow:

            -> We would expect most of the related PDPs to be already used or negotiated, considering for how long MAX deliveries have been delayed. Some MAX’s have been sitting for over 3 years. If they were flying they would be approaching a heavy maintenance check. However, we see short-, near-, and long-term risks related to these news,”

  10. Give it another 12-18 months there will be no more delivery to China from Airbus also. The US ITAR compliance will stop engine delivery to Any aircraft destine for China if Boeing continue to be freeze out.

    • RR hopes so. Bold decisiveness that makes you #2.

      That’s where this discussion is all about.

      • Which engine RR have for A320 series or 220. Also all RR engine contain more than 22 percent US content. The law says anything over 10 percent can be prohibited.

    • “The US ITAR compliance will stop engine delivery to any aircraft destined for China”

      If that happens, there’ll be a major souring of relations between the US and EU (and Brazil); Safran will then start to develop/manufacture entirely independently of the CFM alliance.

      The US can try to sanction the whole world, but it will just isolate itself completely — as has already been happening at a gradual pace since GWB.

      • @Bryce

        There will be a major souring between anyone in the US, who’s livelihood is tied to the production and sale of those engines – including shareholders, and the gang that implements that plan.

      • Safran will take a very long time to develop and certify a new engine outside of CFM
        Even if they used the half of the engine that GE didnt do , theres a plethora of suppliers to be found for the ‘other half’ which they would have to develop and test first.
        The nature of the relationship with GE means its unlikely to even be commercially possible. And they arent going to commit commercial suicide on Chinas behalf ( who would take any technology from Safran in a heartbeat)
        RR was bought out by Pratt in the IAE partnership , but Rolls continued to supply its parts share to build each engine as it was an amicable split

        • Why would it be “commercial suicide”?
          With the US sanctioning the whole world, there’d be a lucrative market for Safran 😏

          • I know what let’s do: let’s “sanction” our biggest customers, and our NRG suppliers, too! That’ll show ’em!

            Something much bigger going on, I think.

          • The idea that Safran can supply CFM engines to China without US or GE approval is a fantasy. It hasnt come to that of course but Safran develop their own engine outside CFM is complete nonsense. Who will be their partner and pay for it – China ?
            ROFL
            The one doing the commercial risky decisions is China by blacklisting Boeing (and to some extant China is blacklisting Australia too). When you play that sort of game anything can happen in return.
            Remember too that Leap is the only engine on the Max and China ‘restricting’ its purchases or return to service is harming Safran too

          • @DoU
            If Safran is such a “lame duck” as you suggest, then why does GE bother with the CFM alliance? Surely GE can go it 100% alone? Safran also makes parts for other GE engines, but surely GE can do that itself?

          • Because consortiums is how the engines are done.

            GTF has Pratt, MTU, Japanese engine consortium.
            Rolls has various partners on it’s engines

            I wouldn’t say Safran is a lame duck but their latest engine development was a flop, the Silvercrest engine for the Dassault business jet.

            Surely you know Airbus and Boeing don’t go it alone either for their airframes, some are just production partners others involved in development of their airframe assembly.
            Then again your responses indicate you know very little.

          • @ DoU
            More reading difficulties.

            There are only two engine *consortiums* , i.e. CFM (=GE/Safran) and Engine Alliance (GE/PW).
            Outside of those consortiums, each participant also manufactures its own engines; the fact that such engines contain parts from other OEMs does not qualify for application of the term “consortium”.

            RR does not have such a consortium with another manufacturer.

            Safran’s M88 on the Rafale is doing just fine, isn’t it?
            How’s GE’s GE90 coming along? Tim Clark keeps asking for data but he isn’t receiving it…one can only wonder why.

          • Doubling down I see.
            Engine alliance was only a one time only GE and Pratt for the A380
            https://www.enginealliance.com/
            They haven’t worked on any projects since
            The rest of your claims are equally incoherent.
            Hint the GTF engine certification by EASA is in the name of IAE

          • @ DoU
            Even more reading difficulties.
            – RR *was* a participant in the IAE consortium, but it sold its stake to PW in 2011. That’s *past* tense, whereas my comment above relates to *present* tense.
            – The V2500 is the only IAE engine on the A320 ceo — the GTF on the A320 neo is a PW product. The V2500 also powers the MD-90 and KC-390.
            – Besides PW, the remaining participants in IAE (MTU in Germany and the Japanese Aero Engine Consortium) only act as sub-contractors / suppliers — not as standalone manufacturers.

            Any other ramblings before bedtime?

          • IAE entity still exists, RR just sold its share to Pratt. The other partners are still there. Fortunately they were the same companies for the GTF , maybe a larger share for MTU and the Japanese ?

            IAE is the certification holder with AESA for the GTF which is one of the engines on A320 ( alongside the CFM consortium)
            https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/TCDS%20EASA.IM_.E.093%20Issue%2007.pdf
            Type Certificate Holder
            International Aero Engines (IAE), LLC

            same goes for FAA
            ‘TYPE CERTIFICATE (TC) HOLDER:
            International Aero Engines, LLC
            400 Main Street
            East Hartford, CT 06118’
            MODELS:
            PW1133G-JM, PW1133GA-JM, PW1130G-JM,
            PW1129G-JM, PW1127G-JM, PW1127GA-JM ,….etc

            MTU has its own final assembly line too
            https://www.aero-mag.com/mtu-aero-engines-pw1100g-jm-geared-turbofan-airbus-a320neo

            There Ive dumbed it all down for you

        • Duke:

          It was an agreed split but it was not amicable. The split because they cold not agree and PW wanted to stop the arguing and issues.

          Continuing to supply the parts is a normal commercial transaction process in the EU and US.

          While there are numerous examples I know of, the one that was truly funny from my standpoint was when a Controls mfg bought out another controls mfg who was supplying Controllers (computer processors aka an electronic master controller). The one continued to provide that controller to the other despite being fierce rivals in the controls industry

          Some is contractual and some is you don’t want to be the one that stops the parts for someone aircraft when they are also buying your engines.

          Its all business.

          • It made sense for Rolls at the time and even more sense after its Trent troubles. Pratt and Rolls had the same share so it was always who was going to have their way . The smaller engine consortium members were more on the sidelines
            For the V250o engine airlines that later upgraded their plane to Neo engineered with GTF the same consortium members ( without Rolls) now covered both types. As the service contracts are the major selling point the process becomes seamless against the CFM consortium and its rival engines CFM56 and Leap.

          • Duke:

            PW has worked with partners for a long time, 5 Japaneses entities and MTU.

            RR wanted to run the show and does not play well with others. Shrug.

            It sure did not do them any good or favors as PW and RR could have come out with a joint GTF engine backed by the Japanese partners and MTU.

            RR would have been better off staying. Its not like they saw the Trent debacle coming and might very well avoided

            RR and its service contracts were one of the issues.

    • We have another “fly”. 🙂

      BA has to start repaying its massive LT debt from next year. Time is not on its side.

        • By liquidating its rainy day fund! Recession/slow down/hard time for BA is coming. The Emporer will have no clothes to wear.

          • There are so very many actions being taken by The West (its ruling classes, I mean) that are being portrayed as “backfiring”, or “shooting themselves in the foot”. I think there might be
            a more parsimonious explanation for what’s occurring.

        • Duke, why in the face of all the evidence, do you always do this? This isn’t the first time you’ve been shown that net debt has actually gone up over time, even from Q4/2021 to Q1/2022:

          https://seekingalpha.com/article/4504158-boeing-bulls-capitulate-look-to-buy-this-below-100

          “The one thing we want to focus on is how debt has evolved over time. In 2018 for example, Boeing carried just $2.0 billion in net debt.

          When we covered the stock in 2020, it sported $34 billion in net debt. Today, we are over $45.4 billion.”

          Net debt at the end of Q4/2021 was $41.9 billion. It went up at the end of the next quarter by $3.5 billion.

          No 787 deliveries occurred during Q2/2022 – so expect another net debt increase coming in a couple weeks, when they release the earnings then…

          • In addition to the fact that 737 deliveries were disappointing…

          • Only look at this year. They are either paying down debt or increasing it in 2022 That facts say its going down for Q1 2022

            Its not news that before 2019 Boeing debt was much smaller. Then stuff happened and it grew markedly. Its old news that this happened

            Your specific debt numbers dont make sense

          • Im looking at Boeings Q1 2022 filings my friend. The story just spelt it out better.

            Q2 22 coming out this month. So you have plenty of time to rehearse your abject apology

          • @Duke

            Net debt.

            That is the amount of debt you have, after you subtract all cash and convertibles (like term deposits) to get a number.

            Boeing has been paying for things out of the savings account. It’s like you dipping into your 401k, your rainy day fund – when you lose your job and have to keep food on the table, the heat & lights on and the rent paid.

            Total consolidated debt for Boeing was $58.1 billion at the end of Q4/2021 and was reduced to $57.7 billion.

            $400 million went to debt.

            Meanwhile they smashed the piggy bank for $3.9 billion.

            So to put it into a context you can understand:

            You spent $400 on student loan payments, but paid $3,500 to keep living. Out of all the money you took in during the period, you still came up $3,900 short of what you needed to cover your bills.

            That’s why your savings went down from $16,200 to $12,300.

            BTW – you still owe $57,700 on your student loans. You could empty your entire savings account and get it down to $45,400 – but then if anything happened, you’d have no money.

            Can you understand it now?

          • Boeing’s financials list net debt.
            It follows accounting standards, that’s fine for me

            27th July 2nd qtr results released. Let’s see your mansplai ing then

          • @ DoU
            Yes, on July 27th we’ll be treated to another lesson in bad financials.
            Current burn rate is about $10B per year, and there was no meaningful increase in revenue in the past quarter, which means that there’ll be a further erosion of available cash.

          • @Duke

            Mansplaining?

            It’s called an analysis.
            I’m trying to get you to understand financial statements. There is more to it than just the numbers they put down on paper. There’s nothing to do with gender in it, at all.

            Is that how you approach something, when someone is trying to teach you a subject?

            Duke in School – History 101: WW2
            ———————————-
            Professor: So the European theatre kicked off in World War 2 when Germany invaded Poland from the west and the Soviet Union invaded Poland from the east. The Pacific theatre started full hostilities for the US on Dec 7, 1941, with the attack on Pearl Har-

            Dukeofurl: Stop mansplaining this to us!!!

            Insecure much?

          • @Bryce

            That’s the thing – the quarter was a rinse/repeat of Q1.

            They didn’t cut any expenses, did they? That’s the only other way to cut down the burn rate, or as I mentioned previously – increased deposits on future orders. Something to bring in cash…or a reduction in spending.

            Duke’s a little touchy, today.

          • @DoU

            “The story just spelt it out better.”

            From the article of Jan 2022 you quoted:

            -> Boeing said that “cash and investments in marketable securities decreased to $16.2 billion, compared to $20.0 billion at the beginning of the quarter, *primarily driven by debt repayment* partially offset by operating cash flow.

            Did you read that?

          • In the *whole* year of 2021, BA could only manage to generate less than a billion operating cash flow. Will it be sufficient to cover the billions of debt due? *Where is the extra cash* to develop the long-awaited much touted NBA/NMA etc? Interest rate is much higher than that was in spring 2020, what does BA have in its sleeve?

            This coming recession/stagflation will likely be L shaped, as the fed/ECB have exhausted their tools.

    • > Give it another 12-18 months there will be no more delivery to China from Airbus also.. <

      I think you're mistaken about that, but we will see.

      • Agreed with Bill7.

        Airbus is too vested in China to get out unless they are forced as would be the case of an attack on Taiwan.

        I think China is seriously rethinking things these days.

        • > Airbus is too vested in China to get out.. <

          Maybe a good "problem" to have, as productive capacities and energy flows move steadily Eastward..

          But that there quoted bit *is* some world-class Spin ! Kudos to the writer, in a certain way.

          • Bill7:

            You might ask the people of Tibet, Hong Kong and the Uigyurs how they like China rule these days.

            I kind of like my freedom. Perfect no, but it sure is not China

          • @TW
            While you’re on the subject, don’t forget to ask the people of the Gaza Strip and West Bank…see what they have to say about your staunch ally…

          • @TW

            You might ask the tens of millions that were enslaved (more than half died on their way). How about proper reparation?? Is it going to bankrupt the US government??

          • You guys might want to look at your own colonial history. I am well aware of our as well as what was done to the Native American population (Spain did a bang up job for a long time in the America as well as the UK and the French)

            We inherited slavery from the UK (who in turn made it illegal).

            Nothing I can do about that legacy though I condemn it in terms I would violate language posting.

            Martin Luther King is not a hero to me because of what he did for Black People, he is a hero to me as he took the chains of history off those of us who always condemned it and laid to bare what our heritage is and that it was STILL in implantation.

            But its out on the table and George Floyd brought that aspect of our so called police system that still kills people of color in huge numbers (yes they kill white people as well but not in the same proportion)

            My folks taught me to respect the Alaska Native population. We had few black people up here, but I recognized those fall under that same umbrella of respect.

            And that in turn was extended to the LBGT community.

            I am most proud of my parents who put me on the path to decency.

            While I am not religious, the prayer that says, Lord, give me the wisdom to know what I can change and what I can’t.

            I can only set a good example and be as good a citizen as I can and vote and I can’t change history or make others see what is right.

        • @TW

          I heard that BA is very eager to have the same “problem” AB is suffering from: massive order from one of its most important customer.

          businessinsider.com
          Beijing: US ‘Sour’ After Airbus Beats Boeing to $37B China Plane Deal

          • > Airbus is too vested in China to get out <

            Boeing should *clearly* avoid getting into the same dangerous situation, by refusing to deliver to China those hundred-plus 737MAXs presently sitting in storage; and China seems to be helping them toward that goal.. a win-win!

            😉

            gang that couldn't shoot straight

          • “gang that couldn’t shoot straight”

            The charge of the lightweight brigade

    • @Daveo

      Oh yah. Let’s fix the broken ‘easy to win’ trade war with…more sanctions.

      The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Hopefully the adult voices in the room will be able to logically explain to the ignorant:

      1) GE, maker of the LEAP, HQ is located in Ohio. A swing state. Wash is a blue state, so harming them wasn’t a big deal. Try that in Ohio.

      2) Airbus has a FAL in Mobile. Red state. You want to piss off the good people of ‘Bama, you go right ahead. You tell them it’s about ‘Murica Furst when they lose their jobs.

      3) Shareholders. GE. Pratt & Airbus are all traded on the stock exchange. Ask shareholders how they feel about taking a haircut now – especially during a recession.

      4) Each and every stakeholder will launch legal challenges. It’s not like China doesn’t have the engines already in their hands. No one either, is talking about a technology transfer on how to make the complicated things. They can buy, but they cannot make them.

      5) More sanctions is like treating the gun violence in the US with…

      …more guns. You have multiple examples around the world, of how there is less gun violence and a lower murder rate amongst comparable Western nations, who control firearms in their country.

      The key to fixing things is not to make it worse. Sanctions have only cost the country money. People with half a brain, who don’t just shout slogans at the top of their lungs, understand that.

      • Frank:

        The first thing that comes to mind is Ohio or even more so Alabama is not going to vote for Biden if he bought them all tricked out Pickup Trucks!

        Granted he would not want to loose what few Democrats in the House districts that are not gerrymandered out of existence.

        The big question to me is what is your answer to the constant hacking attacks and stealing of American IP?

        The Ironic part is if China just let things go we would sink ourselves in 50 years. Same with the Soviets and NATO.

        Short term arrogance and ego over long term goals.

        • @Trans

          I was thinking more along the lines of the GOP and how they would fare in Ohio, if they increase sanctions on China and stop engines from heading overseas.

          As I said previously – Biden can’t move on China or he’ll be seen as weak. Only 2 ways it gets resolved:

          1) GOP is back in charge
          2) Dems win a huge majority in both houses and Biden skyrockets in the polls (not very likely)

          Republicans started this mess – this is one that Dems can’t clean up, because they’ll get hammered on it.

          • Frank:

            Its more complex than that. Keeping in mind the correct term would be the right vs republican.

            There are the Trump Fascists (insurrectionists) weird types like McConnel that go to Ukraine to support liberty (tearing it down at home) the ones that could not send our industry to China fast enough. All Trump did was create Chaos he did not do anything effective.

            Biden can’t move on China because of the US system, GE extends well outside of Ohio and the US government is all but controlled by the Corporations.

            I don’t see Biden weak or strong on China, I see it as a close to impossible situation as he fights the corporations (or is beholden to them, noting his getting Credit Card companies removed from Bankruptcy projection.

            The Dems are beholden to the campaign funds from Big Corporations as well.

            I do not see stopping GE LEAP engines to China as accomplishing anything. They have the more advanced versions available off the A320 and MAX.

            As we have seen in Ukraine, to get the powers that control us to shift, it takes tragedy level of death and destruction.

            Despite this we see anggrandisation of China and the Soviets, why anyone wants a Dictatorship succeed is beyond me but I am of a generation whose fathers and mothers fought WWII to maintain our freedoms no matter how imperfect

      • Alabama is small potato in the US. When China deliberately harm the US and favor Airbus it is fine with the EU people. They forget that Airbus products have more US content between 40-50 percent by value. Europe is toothless when US get angry. They can’t even defend themselves against their neighbor with the exception of maybe France. Keep drinking the koolaid.

        • @Daveo

          ‘Alabama is small potato in the US.’

          You think that the two senators from Alabama will vote for sanctions that hurt their state? The congressmen?

          ‘When China deliberately harm the US and favor Airbus it is fine with the EU people.’

          Nice generalization of ‘all’ the people in Europe. Last I remember it was ‘America First’, no? So…why should the EU not reciprocate and say ‘EU First’? Or is it only OK for America to say that and not everyone else?

          ‘They can’t even defend themselves against their neighbor with the exception of maybe France.’

          Not to demean Ukraine, or anything – but look at how Russia is doing in it’s invasion against a bunch of untrained civilians. You really think Europe wouldn’t do better? lol Russia has been exposed…

          ‘They forget that Airbus products have more US content between 40-50 percent by value. ‘

          And…? So what? US should be happy, if that is the case…
          (BTW – you have a link to back up that claim?)

          ‘Keep drinking the koolaid.’

          I listed out some points above, and the only thing you could do was run down Alabama. Is that all you have?

        • “When China deliberately harm the US”

          That’s an amusing definition of “harm”: put poorly designed/manufactured junk on the market and then cry “harm” when it’s not selling universally.

          • That is weird.

            We don’t care about Chinese Junk(s) – long term they will sink themselves but like the Soviets, its the harm to the rest of us in the meantime.

            And its the near neighbors that get to enjoy the Chinese hospitality just like they got to enjoy Japanese in WWII (and in many cases happy to see them over the EU masters until they found out it could be worse)

            Ironic how soon the deliberate policy of the Rape of China and rape, pillage and looting of Nanking is forgotten.

  11. More Boeing FOD in the news today:
    “Risk of foreign object debris in 787 fire switches prompts FAA action”

    “The risk of foreign object debris in Boeing 787 engine fire shut-off switches has prompted action by the US Federal Aviation Administration.
    “The regulator late last week released a proposed airworthiness directive (AD) that would require US airlines to ensure their 787s do not have potentially effected components.
    “The proposal, made public on 7 July, warns that “foreign object debris could have been introduced during rework of certain engine fire shut-off switches” on 787s.
    “The debris could cause “uncommanded activation of the engine fuel shut-off function”, or prevent pilots from pulling the engine fire handle, the proposed AD says.
    “Boeing and an unnamed parts supplier have already notified operators who received affected parts, the FAA’s proposal says. The airframer also addressed the risk in a service bulletin dated 2 May that applies to 787s with specified production numbers.
    “But because engine fire shut-off switches can be swapped between 787s, the FAA’s proposal, if adopted, would apply to all US-registered 787s. There are 132 such aircraft, including 787-8s, -9s and -10s.”

    https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/risk-of-foreign-object-debris-in-787-fire-switches-prompts-faa-action/149346.article

    As @keesje points out above, it’s easy to blame geopolitics for BA’s bad fortunes in China — but the real problem may, in fact, be consistently abysmal quality.

    • In related news;
      A Spirit Airlines a320 catches fire upon landing at Atlanta…
      Prompt response from emergency ground support minimized the Damages ..
      May be out of service for quite some time though.!!
      Also ;
      An American Airlines a321 flight from Vegas to Charlotte had to divert to Phoenix after the report of smoke and fumes in the cabin…
      No word on the cause…!!!
      And Finally ;
      A Korean a330 was forced to make an Emergency landing in Azerbaijan after losing an engine en-route to Seoul !!!
      Just some of the other news I knew you would somehow omit!!!
      Truffle news … perhaps..
      If it was BA issue related…
      We know what the outcome would be !!!!

      • Any multi-year, multi-program FOD issues in that mix?
        Any national fleet-wide inspections for FOD?
        Any extended groundings due to a mixed bag of production quality issues?

      • But the examples you mentioned are problems that occur every day around the world, regardless of the type and manufacturer of the aircraft (just check the website “The aviation Herald”). The case of the 787 involves a probable AD and therefore received prominence. The same emphasis would be given to an aircraft from Airbus, Embraer, Comac etc if an AD was issued to correct a problem.

        • A plane catching on fire on landing is hardly something routine and a common occurance in commercial aviation..
          News update ..
          The 777xf gains another customer as ANA signs up for 2 airframes ..

          • The plane didn’t catch fire — its tyres did. It was such a non-emergency that the passengers just stayed on board while the fire was extinguished, after which de-planing occurred at a regular gate.

            The ANA order was a conversion: 2x 777-9 –> 2x 777-8F

            Anything else to vent? Want to talk about the declining BA stock today?

          • @Bryce

            ‘Anything else to vent? Want to talk about the declining BA stock today?’

            Earnings season. I guess investors are worried about BA results

          • Bryce:

            You learn something new every day. Tires are not part of the aircraft. Who knew?

            I guess we could make a good case that the fuel tanks were mostly empty and that was a blessing as well.

            Well, other than the fact that the fuel tanks sit up above the tires and a part empty tank is far worse than a full one..

            But lets not let reality rear its ugly head, smite it down.

          • @TW/TC

            Even an outsider like me know the difference between plane fire and brakes fire, and, if I had a choice, would rather have on fire *on landing* 🔥

          • @Frank

            Thanks for reminding me.
            Analysts are rushing to dial down their est. (no doubt with BA whispers in their ears)
            2022/2023 EPS est.:
            Current -$0.81/5.62
            1m ago -0.51/5.67
            3m ago 3.11/6.85

            Q2/Q3 2022 EPS est.:
            Current -$0.07/0.60
            1m ago -0.04/0.70
            3m ago 0.56/1.15

          • @Pedro

            Thanks for the link. You see the Q4/21 and the Q1/22 actuals and then what they call a ‘Surprise’

            ………………..Q4 2021 Q1 2022
            Estimate…….-0.36 -0.25
            Actual………..-7.69 -2.75
            Surprise …….-7.33 -2.50

            I swear – these guys are just guessing at sh!t. You’re supposed to be an ‘analyst’ and watch the industry and these companies. How can you be that far off??

            Ask Duke – maybe he/she knows…

  12. No more I’m fine …,but you failed to mention the Air lease a350f order was a conversion of an existing order as well!!
    Swapped 7 a350 9″s for the freighter version !!..
    And Singapore Was allowed cancel 2 350 9 passenger varients and 15 a320 neos to seal the deal!!!
    Carry on your BA verbal barrage!!

    • Why would I start discussing A350F orders when the article is about BA’s miserable failings in China?

      You’re the one who brought up ANA — in a desperate search for just a straw of good news about BA.

    • China and India are both benefitting from the present situation. As for the claim above that
      RU are “desperate” to sell their oil to China: I think that claim is not borne out by facts.
      Lots of countries need what RU in fact has.. and not just oil.

      • Bill7:

        China was not a Soviet market, it is now. And yes, the Soviets are desperate to sell oil and gas, they are dong a WWI type attack and that burns through equipment and the Soviets have to prop up the entire economy.

        That is our current reality. The Soviet Union does not produce anything anyone needs, the raw materials can be and are being sourced elsewhere.

        The Soviets have created a tragedy of WWII proportion in Ukraine and they have inflicted the long term on their own population.

        • > The Soviet Union [sic] does not produce anything anyone needs, the raw materials can be and are being sourced elsewhere.

          deludere, deludere..

        • @ TW
          The Soviet Union dissolved more than 30 years ago…did that news not reach folks way up north?

          • I don’t think that commenter gets out much.

            😉

          • Bryce/Bill7:

            Keeping up with current events Vlad the Destroyer is in the process of reconstitution of it again.

            You know, invade a neighboring country? Belarus anyone?

            Granted its a Mini Soviet Union but a dictatorship is a dictatorship. even if its not guised behind Communism and is extreme Nationalism.

            Now where have I heard about the Nazi thing before?

            Ah yes, those who fail to remember their history are doomed to repeat it.

          • -> You know, invade a neighboring country?

            1983 Grenada

          • @ Pedro
            Don’t forget Panama (1989) and Cuba (1961).

          • We also invaded France in 1944 and kills 10s of thousand of French. We also invaded Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy.

            What do they have in common with Panama, Grenada , Afghanistan , Iraq? We left.

            Perfect? No. the Soviet Union or China?, at least not yet.

            The difference, people who bow down to dictators and enable them to thrive.

          • … left Afghanistan, Iraq …

            A lack of will, a lack of long term vision, a lack of strategy, a lack of perseverance, the attention of a four-year old.

          • “… left Afghanistan, Iraq …”

            soundly thrashed.
            nothing more to destroy.
            ( which IMU was the real agenda.)

          • The US never left the US either.

            Nor did the US leave Alaska.

            Keeping in mind Hawaii is part of the Third Island Chain China wants to invade.

      • Surprise, surprise.

        Bloomberg: Russian fuel is Flooding to the Middle East!!

        The world is round!

  13. There is a darker side to Airbus and China. I have posted this a few times now, its worth reading.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-champion-airbus-has-deep-links-to-chinese-military-industrial-complex-report-says/

    Clearly its one of the EU issues putting on blinders and China has changed to a let us all get along movement vs the confrontational approach.

    One of the realities is they are at war with the EU and the US and at least the US has realized that with the EU trailing someplace behind.

    Its not a competitive relationship that the US and the EU have with each other. China wants to bury both.

    The US and the EU have a common core of democracy though the US is failing and the EU is a mixed bag with more to the better side but some very dark ones as well.

    • That rag-tag, sensationalist article in Politco has attracted zero interest — except from you. Talk about hyped-up paranoia to give conspiracy theory fans a sugar shot…

      It’s 2022 now: the “reds under the bed” propaganda is from the 50s, and it doesn’t impress anymore.

      • French optical systems all over Russian tanks captured in Ukraine

        • US systems of all sorts have been a welcome addition to the Taliban’s arsenal — completely free of charge, and in huge quantities.

          • I understand we are contributing to the Soviet arsenal as well (granted most of that is in the form of things going boom and up in the air._

        • @Grubbie

          ‘French optical systems all over Russian tanks captured in Ukraine’

          And it’s worked out so well for the Russians. Well, at least the French got paid, before they got turned into burning hulks of metal, so there is that…

  14. Regarding importing US LNG (shale sourced= short-term availability, anyway), terminals for processing it take *quite some time* to build, and not too many folks want one of those terminals anywhere near them.. the idea that US LNG is going to replace RU gas is- um- misguided at best.

    the stories aren’t adding up..

    • The EU is leaning more heavily on LNG from other suppliers with up-to-date export infrastructure. Qatar, for example.

      The Netherlands just opened two new re-gassification terminals for LNG, in addition to its existing facilities.

      • Thanks for this comment. Will those two new
        terminls be operation soon, or are they now?
        Not depending on the US is a good strategy,
        if it can hold.

        RU have a neat term that translates as “not agreement-capable”, I think. Imagine the applications..

        • The terminals will be fully operational at the end of August, at which point they’ll start receiving 7 billion cubic meters of contract LNG — thereby filling NL’s gas reserves before winter.

          • Cutting it close, it seems to me, but I don’t know how cold it typically gets in NL. Most all my time over there has been in Scandinavia- quite a few “cozy” winters. 😉

            Let’s *all* stay warm, is my thinking.

          • @ Bill7
            We haven’t has a cold winter in years. If we do get cold weather, it’s usually at the end of January / start of February, and it typically only lasts 5-10 days.
            The gas reserves are already 60% full, and are expected to be (at least) 90% full by November 1.

            There were several redundant coal burning stations here that are now being re-used to generate electricity; this frees up natural gas for other uses.

          • Keep telling yourself that when you get the worst winter in 40 years!

            And being on a warm ocean is not true for all of Europe. It helps to know your geography.

  15. Also, EROEI issues coming into play as we speak..
    in fact, that’s arguably what the global re-positioning
    we’re experiencing is primarily about.

    But *do go on* with “we can get those dumb ol’ raw
    materials from lots of places” ..

  16. “The country routinely engages in cyber-based industrial espionage,”

    Hilarious, : US or CN?
    The biggest longstanding “no holds barred” snooper
    laments counter snooping. absolutely amusing.

    • The US snooping while easily the biggest ( Snowdens revelations) isnt really stealing IP and industrial secrets.
      They much prefer political intel ( eg Merkels phone) rather than the intricate details of Germanys IP

      • Oh great – that makes it ok, then.

        China snooping – bad.
        US snooping – good.

        Got it.

        • Frank:

          Its been going on since time immemorial.

          Allies want to know what their allies are really up to.

          As we have seen with the EU, getting dependent on Soviet gas and oil is a reality.

          Merkel is either a dupe or compromised.

          • The US is currently dependent on Canada for 50% of its oil imports; if Ottawa gets a more radical regime any time soon, the US will get badly burned 😏

            We won’t mention all the rare earth metals that the US needs from China…

          • Depends on Russian oil and gas is bad?? Depends on American import is good?
            But America doesn’t have enough to supply the world! Sad.

            Funny Biden is now bending over backwards to shake hand with one whom he called a “pariah” not that long ago, asking for more oil.

          • > Merkel is either a dupe or compromised. <

            What Merkel is, is retired.. Olaf Scholz is the German Chancellor now (nominally, anyway).

            keep up.

          • @ Bill7
            I think he may have been referring to when she was in power.
            Mind you, she was also friendly toward the US…but look what happened to that country in 2017-2021…

          • @Trans

            ‘Its been going on since time immemorial.’

            So it’s OK, in your books then. Got it.

            ‘As we have seen with the EU, getting dependent on Soviet gas and oil is a reality.’

            Let’s try this:

            As we have seen with the US, getting dependent on Chinese products and imports is a reality.

            and this one

            Trump is either a dupe or compromised.

          • Frank:

            I am a progressive, I never bought the Orange Hair ones garbage (keeping posting bounds and I have another name for said Orange Hair one, I refer you to an American Comedian though its a bit obscure)

            So your are right, EU gas dependency is a past fact, but its a current affect as well. The US is doing all it can to support the EU.

            I see posters that admire China and the Soviets and diss the US. That is the difference. I know what my country is, where we came from and its ills.

            I do not admire dictators.

            As a result of US polies, the US house is almost certain to flip as a result and we get the like of Jordan again.

            Nor did I support the sending US mfg to China. I pay for quality goods (not sure how I feel about the Passat after all the repairs!)

            None of my tools are foreign (I could still buy good US made tools when I was working)

            I can and do support decency as well as a radical supporter of Ukraine. Not because I think Ukraine is perfect, but its the invaders who are far far far worse.

    • The biggest longstanding “no holds barred” snooper
      laments counter snooping. absolutely amusing.

      -> Der Spiegel quoted the Snowden documents as revealing that the US taps half a billion phone calls, emails and text messages in Germany a month. “We can attack the signals of most foreign third-class partners, and we do it too,” Der Spiegel quoted a passage in the NSA document as saying. On an average day, the NSA monitored about 20m German phone connections and 10m internet datasets, rising to 60m phone connections on busy days, the report said.

  17. Airbus success in China vs. Boeing lack of same:

    It is the difference between synergetic cooperation and trying to rip off another party.

    OK, fairness, synergies, win-win are unknown concepts in the US.

    • How bout practicing what you preach.. Bryce..
      Throws in an unrelated topic and expects no feedback…
      Again , would expect nothing less .

      • Confusing Uwe with Bryce now, are you?
        Is that because BA stock went down again on Monday…threw you off kilter?

    • A bit of good Boeing news for a change….delivers 51 planes in June…
      It’s highest total since Early 2019….

      • …and what has that got to do with GWB?

        If you look below, you’ll notice that I posted on this subject, and included useful links. You might learn improved posting techniques from that 😉

        • Obviously ,I knew you wouldn’t be impressed…but at last some good news from the BA camp…

          • Semi-good news…with a BIG qualifier, as detailed in my post below.
            But, yes, it’s enough to give a glimmer of hope to the financially unenlightened…

      • But … still no 787 delivery?? Who said the FAA won’t take any longer than *a couple of weeks* to open the the door for BA delivery.

        I heard BA halted production in Renton for ten days for suppliers to catch up.

        Last quarter, BA guys/gals burned the midnight oil to rush out the recertification work files just minutes before those in the C-suite spoke triumphantly in earnings release. Another quarter, any rush??

        • That recently announced DOT audit may throw a spanner in the works…

    • On a lighter note DJT starred in McD’s Big N Tasty burger tv ad twenty yrs ago.

  18. Way, way before GWB, actually (not that I was a fan).

    And for the prolific one and his comments re RU actions in the Ukraine:

    -Invasion of Afganistan (ongoing, despite words)
    -Invasion of Iraq (ongoing, despite words)
    -Invasion of Syria (ongoing)
    -Iran (not just yet, but they’re trying hard..)
    -‘Client’ States around the world, but esp GER
    -AFRICOM
    -800 military bases garrisoning the Globe
    -War Budget that is larger than the next ten countries combined; ca $1,000,000,000,000
    p.a. combined

    And Pootin’s the Bad Guy? heh!

    • That war budget is why we can defend you. It is why we have the largest aerospace industry in the world. It is why we come to your rescue on energy needs. It is why we dominate space exploration. It is why your best scientist emigrate to US to achieved their life long dream in regards to research. I love the Italian food and shoes and Mercedes Benz cars though.

      • > That war budget is why we can defend you. <
        .

        I had *no idea* that you were defending me; thank you. You could read John Perkins's 'Confessions of an Economic Hitman', if you wish.

        Oh: I forgot Libya in the above list, amongst several others. Bringing Freedumb and Democracy to the heathens since 1898 (at least)..

        • @ Bill7
          You may have noticed a number of very frustrated/embittered commenters here, who have a very “idealized” (and outdated) view of the position of a certain country…

          • You nailed it… one person’s patriotism can also be another person’s definition of brainwashing. Hmmmm.

          • @ Ravioliollie Kaye
            The sad/alarming thing is that this “brainwashing” (or indoctrination, if you prefer) impedes progress: if you just automatically assume every day that you’re “A”, then you’re never going to realize that you are — in fact — “B”.

            We observe a form of this same effect in the automatic dismissal of China’s technical prowess — which is concurrently amusing, because one can ask oneself how an “auto-dismissed” entity can nevertheless cause so much alarm and ire.

  19. There is some useful info in that Airline Ratings article on Boeing’s financial situation. Thanks for the link.

  20. In reading your book “Air Wars” one is left with a single overwhelming impression of the industry which can be summed up in one adjective: “dismal”.

      • Of course it’s price.
        In addition to available volume, speed/variety of manufacturers and logistical efficiency.
        And availability of products/commodities that the US can’t source elsewhere.

        • @Bryce

          I feel that if the US really, really wanted to – they could make all their coffee makers, ties (hello Donnie) and all the other products they get from China.

          BUT

          It would require a decent living wage to get people into factories doing the menial jobs that the Chinese workers do. Repetitive, over and over again.

          It would require those in the top 1% to take less than what they are taking now, in order for those workers to get paid.

          Everything would cost more, therefore everyone would have to make more – the workers.

          That’s why it’ll never happen.

          • @Frank

            Washing machines are made in U.S. (thanks to tariff) but the pricey electronics part are made abroad.

          • FT: US political risk and volatility are on the rise

            “The Jan 6 hearings make it easy for every schoolchild to see that America is a country in which armed insurrections can, *and do*, happen”

            According to a tracker of political risk of numerous countries, US political risk is now by far the highest of any developed market, only countries like Turkey, Colombia, Mexico and Israel have similar level of risk within OCED nations.

            “EM-ification” of US politics … “a less stable form of political conflict in which *institutions are too weak to clearly define or enforce the rules [eg. top court’s EPA ruling], increasing social polarization as well as political and economic uncertainty around key political events”.

            “.. economies and reserve currencies require trust to thrive over the long term. And trust is built on consistent adherence to the rule of law. The recent, radical rulings by the Supreme Court, which itself reflects political polarization, have made clear that *the law won’t be applied in the same way everywhere. The legal framework that binds you will depend on who you are, and where you live.*

            “… With or without guns, the US is now at war with itself.”

            If I were a decision maker in the C-suite, would I put all my eggs in ONE basket??

          • “I feel that if the US really, really wanted to – they could make all their coffee makers …”

            Inflation at ten-plus percent for a decade or more …
            Walmart etc has no choice but to downsize, close half of its stores …
            GDP shrinks …
            Good days are over.
            Hard times ahead.

          • Frank:

            Part true, what I saw was there was a group of people that would not work no matter what you paid them.

            The Irony is that the FedEx sort lines you did not last long!

            But I also saw (Oaklnad) a jam up and the line workers laughing and not pulling the Estop. Not my job, I was there for other work but I responded and got it shut down and then worked with the night crew to get it cleared.

            Some weird stuff in the US and I am not talking about the Coal Powered Republicans solely either!

  21. BA deliveries/orders have been announced for Q2/H1 2022:

    “(Reuters) – Boeing Co delivered 51 airplanes in June to bring its first-half tally to 216 jets, up 38% from the same period last year, company data showed on Tuesday.

    “In total during the first half, Boeing booked 286 gross orders and took 100 cancellations, leaving a net total of 186 orders after cancellations and conversions.

    “Europe’s Airbus on Friday posted 259 net orders after cancellations in the first half, up sharply from a year earlier. Deliveries were flat at 297 airplanes.”

    103 of the Q2 deliveries were MAXs, versus 86 in Q1.
    It’s not clear how many of these were taken from inventory in Q2. Production of new MAXs just touched rate 31 p/m.

    “June’s deliveries exceeded the 50 threshold for the first time since March 2019 and included 43 Boeing 737 MAX, which is recovering from a nearly two-year safety crisis.”

    https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/boeing-deliveries-reach-highest-monthly-level-since-march-2019-1061642

    https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2022-07-12-Boeing-Announces-Second-Quarter-Deliveries

    **********

    Actually not a bad performance (leaving the 787 out of consideration).
    Margins on the delivered MAXs will determine earnings / EBITDA and cash-on-hand. Debt servicing costs for the quarter will be about $600M, which will make it tough to post a profit. Any writedowns will almost certainly imply a loss for the quarter.

  22. White House says Russia turning to Iran for drones! Confirmation that the once mighty (if inefficient) Soviet industry is a thing of the past.
    MC 21, etc won’t be able to even service the home nation for some time yet Perhaps some Quehar 313s might also be part of the order?

    • White house also said that Saddam had WMDs…

      And then, as a continuation of your reasoning:

      Pentagon still not able to produce workable hypersonic missile. Confirmation that the once mighty (if inefficient) US industry is a thing of the past.
      MAX, etc won’t be able to even service the home nation for some time.

      • Just to keep the record clear, Republicans sink the nation and the Democrats save it.

        How about that wonderful dictator in Hungary?

  23. Maybe at the same time DoU gives us his perceptive analysis of Boeing’s second-quarter 2022 financials, he’ll kindly also provide his long-promised update of “retractions” from the ABC article on Boeing of 26 June.. that’ll tie in well with post-Farnborough, I think.

    😉

  24. Trans said: “..You might ask the people of Tibet, Hong Kong and the Uigyurs how they like China rule these days.”

    Or- right here at home!- you could just ask all the Native American tribes who got “resettled” on “reservations”, and were forced to leave their land to walk the Trail of Tears, and the like.

    • Ring the church bells and seek shelter — he’s awake again 😏

    • What?? There were *people* in the “west” long before the migrants and cowboys arrived? In those movies, it’s portrayed as no man’s land freed by those great “explorers”!

      • > What?? There were *people* in the “west” long before the migrants and cowboys arrived? <

        Yes (I know you know that, but..) ; among them were my Choctaw ancestors, who did in fact walk the Trail of Tears.

        I did tell my good friend Trans above that all Boing needs to do to avoid becoming dangerously dependent on China is simply sell those (formerly?) China-bound White Elephants (oops, I mean superb 737MAXs) to other buyers.. problem solved.

        [crickets]

  25. Bryce said, on July 12, 2022:

    > @ Bill7
    I think he may have been referring to when she was in power. <

    Is "is" not present tense? That commenter is so sloppy (at best, ahem..) that I see no reason to
    assume I know its meanings, so for now I take its constructions just as given; perhaps that will help it learn.

  26. FT: [F]our fuel traders took on Wall Street …

    https://www.ft.com/content/0d5c60fd-ccba-4c69-bbfd-0b7591651771

    -> Monroe said navigating the volatile jet fuel market was “like flying with a 6-month-old baby”. “You can do everything you can to make them comfortable” such as “feed them and make sure their nap happened right before the plane”, he said. “But anybody that’s flown with a small baby knows that something can go wrong — and they will let everyone know they are [not feeling right].” Meanwhile, “you don’t know exactly how to fix it”.

  27. Certification of the C919 in China appears to be drawing closer:

    “China’s COMAC C919 Performing Route Proving Flights Across China”

    “Various COMAC C919 aircraft, including the first production aircraft, have been flying to airports across China, say various local media outlets.

    “The route proving flights are to test the C919’s performance as well as to test the airports’ ability to handle the aircraft, reports Changjiang Daily, without citing sources.

    “The first production aircraft – local registration B-001J, that will be delivered to launch operator China Eastern Airlines’ OTT Airlines – has been performing flight test manoeuvres at Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Dongying Shengli Airport in Shandong province over the last three days, according to Flightradar24. COMAC and Chinese government authorities have said publicly the C919 is due to be certified this year. But Changjian Daily, without citing sources, have said in recent days the aircraft will be certified and have entry into service, as soon as next month.”

    https://www.smartaviation-apac.com/2022/07/chinas-comac-c919-performing-route-proving-flights/

    Very nice-looking plane — very different nose to the A320 (or the archaic MAX)…looks more A220-like.

    • So thats all they changed – the nose cone

      I wonder if the main wheel bay still has the capability for a 4 wheel undercarriage like what was an option on the early A320

      The ARJ21 has FBW controls but via a central control column for the pilots, I wonder if this feature is carried over for the C919 or a ‘flash of inspiration’ meant they went for side stick controllers instead?

      It appears that is so
      What an amazing coincidence, thats what the A320 has too
      https://asiatimes.com/2021/08/c919-launch-rings-alarm-bells-for-airbus-boeing/

      • The 737MAX is basically a twin-engine 707 — with a few changes here and there.
        Still no FBW or EICAS, however — boy, didn’t that come back to bite them?

        • Boeing owned all the IP from the 707, it wasnt appropriated from another company or country.
          Actually because of the restricted belly cargo and low ground clearance the 737 is more a 2 engine development of the 727 ( which preceded it). Both had the same 707 upper fuselage lobe

          Brazils Embraer has shown how its able to put a 4 across airliner into service . More recently they have developed a twin jet military airlifter to rival the really ancient C-130.
          This means China can do these sorts of developments but for some reason chooses not to

          • Once again: technical IP expires after 20 years, so there hasn’t been any IP in the A320 ceo for a long time…it’s completely public domain.

            If you want to take that route, then we can just as easily assert that the 707 violated Comet IP.

          • You dont know your IP rules do you.Theres nothing about the 707 that was copied from the Comet. An airliner with jet engines instead of piston engines was logical path of what had gone before and thus not a patent. No aware of any De Havilland trade secrets they used either, as Boeing had been building thin swept wing bombers and making a passenger fuselage for one wasnt an ‘innovation’, a couple of UK companies had already done so but kept the piston engines

            Thats patents that you are thinking of , they often dont patent things that arent visible and they prefer to keep them as trade secrets and out of the public domain. Its still IP even if its a trade secret but of course you cant claim damages if someone breaches a ‘secret’
            China probably doenst even recognise other countries patents – which they arent obliged to do so, and dont seem to even protect IP thats patented in China

            Musk does this Trade secret approach for his rockets preferring to not let the world know the details of what they are doing.

            Whats wrong with developing your own original work but ‘based on’ the achievements of all that have gone before. Outright copying just means its out of date very quick or of lesser quality as the people and trade secrets arent as easy to copy
            ‘Giving Innovation Wings: How Boeing Uses its IP’
            https://www.wipo.int/wipo_magazine/en/2014/01/article_0004.html

          • @ DoU
            A single delivery of an unpatented product/part is considered by patent law to be a publication. Even worse, merely showing the item in question — without an actual delivery — can have the same effect. Once publication has occurred, the term “IP” is moot.

            China has its own patent system, just as other countries do. They have the same rules as most of the rest of the world.

            If the BA “back office” wants to assert that the C919 is a “copy” of the A320, then so be it: after all, BA’s lunch in China is eroding right before its eyes, so a certain bitterness is to be expected.

          • Oh dear. Confusing copyright with trade secrets.which aren’t patents either. Collective noun is IP
            Never mind , I’ve noticed when you are out of depth , it’s pointless providing water wings , just let you thrash about

          • @ DoU
            Copyright has to do with texts and music, and it’s not affected by publication.
            We’re dealing with patents here.
            Time to brush up on your IP knowledge.

            To make it even more complicated for you: IP also includes Trademarks (including Service marks), models (which relate to physical form) and seed patents.

            There’s absolutely no legal impediment to any company to base the technical content of a product on an existing product, as long as the latter is at least 20 years on the market.
            The really interesting bit is: once the basis has been established, what are the improvements, and in what tempo will they appear?

          • Its expected that a new airframe would use the ‘technology’ and knowledge that preceded them
            Brazil did .
            What China does is ‘reverse engineered copies’ with only their own improvements in area like nose cones, fairings, maybe flaps. Having major aerodynamic features identical to an existing plane like wing sweep angle , wing area very close etc isnt development of the technology.
            The A320 wing is quite old design now , from the late 70s and when Boeing built the NG with a new wing of larger area, more fuel volume and other improvements , it jumped ahead
            of ‘Airbus ‘ by almost 20 yrs’
            But like I said , some things like a 4 wheel main wheel bogey space arent a technology feature just a copy.
            I showed the Y-20 military airlifter was still a copy of the Il-76, sharing all the existing technology of course but also ‘reproducing’ the essential dissensions, structure and same engineering choices that Ilyushin made in the late 60s.

          • We’ll see what China does going forward.
            We have the rapid improvements in their high-speed trains, aircraft carriers and lithography industry as references.
            Once a child can walk, it doesn’t take long for it to run, skip and jump.

    • > Very nice-looking plane — very different nose to the A320 (or the archaic MAX)…looks more A220-like. <

      Agreed. I wonder how up-to-date or advanced its wing is.

  28. I agree that Boeings woes in China started under Trump and his stupid start of a trade war with China. Initially the narcissistic Trump seemed to love the attention Xi showered on him!

    Remember Trump reveling in Xi’s attention during Xi’s visit to Mar-a-Lago and the reception that Trump received in Beijing where Xi pulled out all the stops in an appeal to Trump’s massive ego?

    Relations actually started out good between China and the USA under Trump but then Trump stupidly filled his cabinet with China-hawks and neo-cons not “America-firsters” and everything quickly went south from there.

    I believe with or without Trump in office this was the direction U.S. foreign policy was inexorably moving towards China anyway.

    China is on the brink of surpassing the United States as the worlds largest economy and military superpower. The U.S. cannot allow that to happen so the permanent security-state in D.C. has been doing all it can to stop China’s ascension as the world’s preeminent power.

    This is why Biden is pursuing the same belligerent trade / military policies towards China as Trump, policies that have only become worse with the Ukraine war with the White House issuing threats to China over perceived Chinese support of Russia.

    The war in Ukraine is causing tectonic geopolitical shifts that will only further hurt Boeings future prospects. How much business has Boeing lost from Russia in the last year?

    The unipolar world order in which the United States dominated the world for a hundred years is coming to an end and the cause of this is Biden’s disastrous Ukraine war.

    China has seen what the U.S. tried to do to Russia (and failed) and China has been making moves to completely remove it’s dependence on the American dollar and America! Russia has shown the way!

    Now back to Boeing. This isn’t the first time Boeing has had to pay a massive price for US foreign policy blunders. Before Trump’s trade war with China Trump stupidly tore up the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran that Iran had been faithfully fulfilling to the letter of the contract.

    With that one stupid move Boeing and many other American manufacturers lost 100’s of billions of dollars in signed business deals with Iran!

    And for whose benefit? ( Cui bono? )

    Trump who likes to call himself an “America First” president didn’t do this in the interest of American businesses or in the interest of American national security. No Trump did this to appease a foreign power with a very powerful lobby in Washington but mostly he did it to please his major campaign donor – a very powerful (now deceased) Las Vegas/Macau Casino magnate.

    I know that this forum tries to avoid politics but this is impossible to do when you are talking about the aerospace industry. Politics has always been closely intertwined with the sale of aircraft globally. It always has been and always will be!

    • ‘The unipolar world order in which the United States dominated the world for a hundred years is coming to an end and the cause of this is Biden’s disastrous Ukraine war.’

      Forgive me for asking, but since when did Biden start a war? Are those ‘Murican tanks and troops on the ground in Ukraine? Just wondering,,,

      Unipolar end due to Biden, huh? Do tell…

      ‘China has seen what the U.S. tried to do to Russia (and failed) and China has been making moves to completely remove it’s dependence on the American dollar and America! Russia has shown the way!’

      https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

      Current Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt
      Japan owned $1.32 trillion in U.S. Treasurys in July 2021, making it the largest foreign holder of the national debt. The second-largest holder is China, which owns $1.07 trillion of U.S. debt.

      Russia has shown the way?

      Sure – own the US president and get him to do your bidding. That’s the way.

      ‘How much business has Boeing lost from Russia in the last year?’

      Boeing and Airbus, buddy.

      Funny, no mention of how the war in Ukraine has backfired spectacularly on Russia. Not only is their economy being destroyed, they have been dragged into a quagmire like Viet Nam that has exposed their military impotence – but the exact opposite of what Putin set out to do; namely weaken the Nato alliance, has happened.

      Welcome to the family, Finland and Sweden.

      But do tell, Mr Keswick;

      If Biden’s strategy has been so poor – in reference to the Russian invasion, what should he have done?

      1) Allow Russia a free hand there? Make America really look weak?
      2) Put boots on the ground and risk nuclear war?

      What’s the magic bullet, that we all haven’t figured out?

      • Frank asked:

        “Forgive me for asking, but since when did Biden start a war? Are those ‘Murican tanks and troops on the ground in Ukraine? Just wondering,,,”

        When did Biden start the war? Well that would be around 2014 when Biden as VP was in charge of the Ukraine file. In that year the US sponsored a coup in Kiev (color revolution) that saw the overthrow of a democratically elected (albeit corrupt) president who had good relations with Moscow and the installation of a US puppet president (also corrupt) who was hostile to Moscow.

        I won’t get into the messy details but you won’t believe what type of fringe group the US leveraged to bring about this regime change! All that I will say is google “Azov Battalion”.

        Since the 2014 coup the U.S. and NATO poured troops into Ukraine training and arming Ukrainians (including “Nationalist” groups) to fight the “separatists” in the Donbass (ethnic Russians who did not go along with the 2014 coup).

        In the ensuing eight years an estimated 15,000 ethnic Russians; men, women and children, were killed in the Donbas from shelling by Kiev (and U.S.) backed battalions (including Azov).

        This is the reason Putin moved into eastern Ukraine. It was to stop the killing of ethnic Russians. Putin had no choice! Today most of these area’s are now liberated!

        In a nutshell this is how Biden caused this war. Ask yourself this. If Russia had overthrown the elected president of Mexico and installed a puppet president and then started setting up military bases in Mexico including bio-weapon’s labs along the US/Mexico border how long do you think it would take for the U.S. to invade Mexico? The U.S. would not have waited 8 years! I guarantee you that! The U.S. would not have waited 8 days before invading Mexico!

        Frank asks:
        “Funny, no mention of how the war in Ukraine has backfired spectacularly on Russia. Not only is their economy being destroyed, they have been dragged into a quagmire like Viet Nam that has exposed their military impotence – but the exact opposite of what Putin set out to do; namely weaken the Nato alliance, has happened”

        Actually just the opposite has happened. The Ruble is much stronger now than before the war.

        Russia’s current account has never been so high during this time of the year (normally it goes down in summer when energy exports to Europe go down) it is now at all-time record highs! And wait until winter rolls along!

        McDonald’s has re-opened with the exact same tasting food but with a silly name (for now) that translates into English as “Tasty, That’s It”. McDonalds made a deal with the new Russian owner that will allow it to repurchase the restaurants within ten years. I think in no time the Golden Arches will reappear in Russia. Likewise other western retailers have undergone similar rebranding and reopening’s.

        And finally inflation in Russia is 4.35% which is about half that of the USA and probably much less than Europe which is really suffering as a result of this insane war that the US prodded Russia into.

        Notice at no time since the start of the war has Biden talked about a peace agreement? Biden does not want peace. Biden is not interested in saving Ukrainian and Russian lives. Biden wants to fight this war to the last Ukrainian in order to weaken Russia!

        Biden has said the U.S. will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”. The U.S. taxpayers will be big losers but not as big as the Europeans and of course Ukrainians who are being forced to pay the ultimate price in this D.C. “think tank” exercise in trying to “weaken” Russia.

        • Thanks for the above comment, which I think is closer to the mark than most.
          I think there’s a still-bigger event going on- likely well planned- which will be presented to the little people
          (like myself) some time from now as yet another “Oops!”

          Mmm..

          • Hey Bill,

            Don’t believe the Q-anon style hype. It’s all about the oil and nat gas deposits in Ukraine i.e. money.

            It’s also about Putin not having to pay billions to Ukraine to ship gas through their territory, to Europe.

        • You know, you certainly like to re-write history. I’ll leave you to it. I’m glad to know that you feel that Putin is such a peace loving guy, just chasing down Nazi’s in Ukraine.

          (you can’t make this stuff up….sigh)

          D.C. “think tank” exercise in trying to “weaken” Russia.

          Yah – those darn guys in DC, getting Putin to invade Ukraine so they could weaken it. How devious.

    • @Kevin Keswick

      Furthermore, it might be a good thing to study history a little bit, to understand what is happening to Russia.

      The US under Biden, is doing exactly what Russia did to the US, when it got involved in the Viet Nam War.

      It is draining Russian resources, from money to military strength to economic power – all for the low price of sending what? Some Stinger missiles, Javelins and Switchblades to Ukraine?

      The Russians sent all kinds of anti-aircraft missiles and AAA that shot down thousands of US aircraft in Nam (read: billions, perhaps trillions of dollars). The US lost over 10,000 aircraft in Viet Nam. 10,000.

      The US was tearing itself apart during the 60’s over it.

      The US hasn’t lost soldier #1 in the conflict, but look at the thousand of vehicles, men and a front line cruiser in the Black Sea, that Russia has lost.

      It won’t be long now, when Russian kids don’t come home to parents, wives, children, brothers & sisters – and the ones that do come home are shot up, maimed and suffering from PTSD and start telling stories of horror from the war.

      Nato has been strengthened by the event – now every member will willingly spend it’s 2% commitment – who will benefit there? Oh, I don’t know, American companies like Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman and yes, Boeing.

      Add in a couple of new members to the group, as well.

      Just like in Viet Nam, the poor people of Ukraine will have to do the heavy lifting and sacrifice it’s citizens to defend it’s nation, like the North Vietnamese did back in the day.

      I’m not American, don’t live in the US, neither Dem or GOPer. I’m just looking at it from afar and calling balls & strikes.

      • Frank:

        I would have guessed US, you are very well informed, while I try on my information for the rest of the World, my hat is off to you.

        Vietnam was a tragedy for them and while our dead were no where near as high, it burned deep into our generation. I and one other brother did not get drafted due to high draft numbers (I don’t think he would have served). One brother was so low he joined the Navy.

        Yes Ukraine is paying the price for all of us. More so for the EU but as we have all too often seen, the US gets dragged into Europe. What happens there affects us in cold blooded terms and I suspect the politico in the US make their decisions on that. WWI was probably public opinion, I do not see any difference between the Kaiser and his empire and the Dutch, Belgium’s, Brits and theirs (granted the Brits brought a form of stability and fairness other than their superior positions in society as it were)

        So yes Ukraine is a decimation while the rest of the EU benefits.

        Ironic that NATO could give 80% of its armaments to Ukraine and be safe, the Soviet Army is trashed. Putin will be long gone before the Soviets are a threat again (if ever).

        A US Boy scout troop could protect all of Europe now.

        The issue from this side is that Europe keeps messing up (Yugoslavia, Kosovo, Libya) and we come in and deal with it.

        But the EU is really a bunch of fragmented fiefdoms reminiscent of the 30 years and 100 years wars (yes I read that history)

        • @Trans

          “But the EU is really a bunch of fragmented fiefdoms reminiscent of the 30 years and 100 years wars (yes I read that history)”

          It’s a provincial thing. All you have to do it watch how it plays out on the football pitch. All of the players sell themselves to the highest bidder playing for their club teams, Man U, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, PSG, Real, Barca – can pretty much buy any player they like. They go, learn the language, eat the food, chase the girls…BUT…BUT…
          …when the Euro’s or WC come around? It’s war. Nationalistic pride takes over.

          The everyone goes back to their club teams to earn a living, as if nothing happened.

          But recently, there have been 2 events that have drawn Europe closer, shown the guys on the continent that they are better off working together and setting differences aside.

          One of them is Ukraine – and the other is Brexit (sorry Bryce)

          Nothing unites a group, like a common enemy. Sure, they’re going to have differences; The French will always say Platini was the greatest player, The English will say it’s George Best, Italians will say Maldini, the Portuguese are torn between Ronaldo (nuevo) and Eusebio, Germans will say Mueller, Spaniards can’t decide on the recent Barca/Real generation, Hungarians say Puskas – of course there’s gonna be conflict.

          You can make a case that they’re all right and all wrong. (We all know it was Pele, but I digress)

          Best example:

          US and Canada are pretty close, no? Do you have to clear customs going into BC?

          A few years ago I visited the home country. Flew into London, then off to Paris – where I rented a car and took almost a month driving all through France, Germany, Austria, Holland, Belgium…had a blast at Octoberfest in Munich.

          Never once, during my travels, did I have to whip out my passport. If I wasn’t paying attention to the road signs, I had crossed into another country without realising it.

          Imma go out on a limb here and say that they’re getting along pretty ok. Nothing is ever perfect, but…it’s pretty good.

          • Frank:

            Far less provincial than plain weird (granted De Santos and Abbot are verging into dictators so maybe the reality is the US is the same as Europe?

            But neither one can veto employment of US assistance, be it any kind of aid that the US has been the most generous in the world or military power (supplies and equipment to Ukraine)

            The Flip is when the US President sell his country out fo a soccer ball (there are some checks and balances to be accurate but those were focused on domestic not foreign)

            Jan 6 would not have succeeded, there was no national power the President could have commanded (US Military was fully ready to refuse orders and I am not sure they would not have stepped in and put the Congress back in power)

            But there is no question we live in perilous times.

            I would rather live in the EU (well most of it but I don’t want to live in Texas either) than China, Soviet Union or Saudi Arabia etc.

            As imperfect as it is, I believe in handing over the reigns of government when the other side wins (Boris).

            But what do you do when you know the other side will do its best to keep it?

            UK of course is not perfect but they sure seem to be more Democratic that the US.

          • @Trans

            ‘Far less provincial than plain weird (granted De Santos and Abbot are verging into dictators so maybe the reality is the US is the same as Europe?’

            You see, I can’t understand how you equate Europe as dictatorships. You lose me here and I feel you’ve gone off the rails. Once again, calling balls and strikes – the US is a heck of a lot closer to government control of it’s people, than European nations.

            I think you forget, when you equate socialist policies, like medical care for all, basic minimum wage, mandatory vacation, mandatory maternal leave and a host of other programs – that these are things people outside of the US want and are not representative of ‘freedoms’ lost. Neither were lockdowns during covid or mandatory vaccination. Most people didn’t search the internet ‘doing research’ on viruses and deem themselves experts – they did like I did: Called up my Doc, who has taken good care of me for years and asked the experts. “Mask up, stay away from others, wash your hands, get vaxxed” was the reply. Seemed to work.

            It was a pain in the ass, being home by 9pm for a stretch – but that’s all it was; a pain in the ass that saved lives. I did my part. But then again, I must just be a sheep, following the dictators, who only want to control us. The real freedom lovers all knew better than their doctors…kinda like when you were a teenager and rebelled about what your parents tried to teach you, because you knew better.

            Until we all grew up and learned they were right and we were all young and dumb. At least some of us did…

        • “The issue from this side is that Europe keeps messing up (Yugoslavia, Kosovo, Libya) and we come in and deal with it.”

          Oh dear, can anyone not deep in alt-reality explain how exactly Murica right the ship in Libya?? Jeeze 😂

      • Uncle Sam wants/needs more but can’t find enough

        NYT: With few able and fewer willing, US military can’t find recruits

        -> “About 76 percent of adults ages 17 to 24 are either too obese to qualify or have other medical issues or criminal histories that would make them ineligible… “

  29. [Edited as violation of Reader Comment Rules] Bryce!!!!

    Now you have me going back to May 2022 to check out old line numbers, just because you asked the question! Damn it!

    Another Batik Air

    https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-9m-lrf-batik-air-malaysia/rqjoj6

    Smartlynx

    https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-9h-orn-smartlynx-malta/egzg8d

    Gol

    https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-ps-gpd-gol-transportes-aereos/rz6z4v

    and another Batik

    https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-9m-lrc-batik-air-malaysia/ejjmmk

    So that’s 4 aircraft in May 2022, that were delivered some 4-5 years ago, before the grounding – and re-delivered.

    Did Boeing count them in their delivery numbers? Did they re-purcahse them? Going by the June numbers, it seems as they did – according to Planespotters, who has 40 deliveries in June.

    Thanks for making more work for me…

    • @FRank, I edited your reply to Bryce. One more like that are you are suspended for a month.

      Hamilton

      • Whatever it was, I’m sure it was well-intended: probably joviality that could be misconstrued as something else.
        Frank is generally very polite and amicable.

        • It was exactly that – sometimes it doesn’t translate well into written word. You Brits tell your buddies to f-off all the time, don’t you? We do it here, as well. But we understand it’s not meant in the manner that would start a fight, it’s all in the delivery. Term of endearment…

          Example:

          “What? You slept with that girl? Go f- yourself, you did not! She’s way too hot and pretty for you!”

          (two seconds later)

          “Was she good? She got a friend? Can you hook me up? Call her up, let’s see if we can go out, the 4 of us…”

          Cultural differences, I guess…

      • Scott – it was not meant as an insult. It was meant that Bryce got me spending more time looking at line numbers, examining the 40 or so jets for the month of June – one by one, checking production dates and seeing when each aircraft was made.

        He put me on to something – pouring through the minutiae, because he asked what I thought of the number of jets Boeing claimed was delivered. So he triggered my obsessive/compulsive, drop everything and focus on the task at hand – to which everything else suffers, like a bloodhound baying after a robber on a chase.

        Then, because it seems that Boeing is claiming an aircraft delivered 5 years ago, as a newly delivered aircraft, I went back into May and started looking at the details of those jets.

        So here I was, early this morning, spending 2 hours pouring through the details of production numbers, sending long winded posts with multiple supporting links, because Bryce put me up to it. It’s all his fault and I need someone to blame for triggering me into forensic accountant mode.

        It’s not nice, what he did…if I knew his address I might be tempted to send him an invoice for a coffee I didn’t drink because it got cold, while I was in the zone.

        So yah, I told him to go ‘f’ himself, for doing this to me.

        (It’s a Commonwealth thing, between guys. You insult them, you swear at them, call them names – but never mean it. The real insult is when you speak formally, politely and coldly to someone)

        But hey! Maybe a vacation wouldn’t be a bad thing. Instead of straining my eyes over online documents, I might be more productive working on the house.

        • I accept all blame 🙂
          Poor Frank had his morning routine upset by a mind-twisting query from that awful Bryce fellow!

          I suspect that Scott was just being stern and correct: after all, LNA has to keep up its polished reputation! Secretly, of course, he relished the fact that you directed a (pseudo-)profanity at me 😉

          Come back, Frank — all is forgiven!

          • Frank’s a good guy, and I have no doubt
            that his [deleted] was pure levity.

            So back to the topic at hand: is BCA double-counting 737MAX deliveries, or not?

            😉

          • @Bill

            I don’t know. Is the Planespotters data correct, is the question? Meaning, have they missed 10 aircraft that Boeing delivered during June – that are not in there?

            Would Boeing do such a thing?

            I think that the inventory pile they have is such a mess, could anyone figure it out, anyways?

          • Frank:

            Does it really matter?

            Time will tell us.

            We only know what went on in the White HYouse (left typo, I liked it) due to direct witnesses and Boeing is not going to discuss or reveal.

          • @ Frank/Bill
            As far as I can see, sites like Planespotters just designate whitetails as “NTU” (Not Taken Up), but leave them on the list. If a whitetail gets a new owner at a later date, the original NTU designatin is then quietly changed to the new owner’s name.

            I suspect that, if you had a cached version of the Planespotters list from May and compared it to today’s list, at least 20 NTU “orphans” would have changed designation.

          • Frank:

            Phew, anyone that ever asked me that kind of question would have gotten punched out. Maybe I am not the norm nor my acquaintances ? (yes I left that open to Bryce)

            Better put in public (as it were here), Darn It Bryce, now you have me forced into OCD, Curse you.

            I don’t think he is worth it as he never accepts his errors and deflects to, well what about Grenada? Better would be to ask the good folks of Grenada if they really wanted to be under Commie rule?

          • @ TW
            I didn’t bring up Grenada — that was Pedro.

            @Bill7 asked you a very pointed question about Native Americans, which I’ll paraphrase here using your own words:

            “Better would be to ask the good folks of various Native American reservations if they really wanted to be (forcibly displaced) under “Confederate” rule?”

          • @Trans

            It’s tongue in cheek humour.

            I have no one else to blame, but myself – for getting sucked into unravelling June deliveries. No one said I had to answer.

            But I blame Bryce. It makes me feel better knowing that he knows, that he baited me. Even if he didn’t, it doesn’t matter. I still blame him for my foibles. I am a victim of my social environment and it’s all his fault.

            At the end of the day, all that research done to really say, it all comes down to the veracity of the data in Planespotters. But the mental exercise was nice – JUST DON”T TELL BRYCE THAT!!!

            @Bryce

            White tails

            You can see them, in the Operator details provided by PS. Ya just gotta dig. For instance:

            https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-ei-gzn-smbc-aviation-capital/ellnvn

            Originally supposed to go to Norwegian. See the little NTU in ‘Delivered’? So Boeing forced it on SMBC and it’s sitting in the desert at Victorville, See ‘std’ (get your mind out of the gutter) at VCV? Hover over those comments.

            This is almost assuredly a white tail.

            Have a look at this abortion of a delivery:

            https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-oe-itu-icbc-leasing/rz6ngp

            It was made 3 years ago.
            First, it was supposed to go to Jet Airways. Nope.
            Then Blue Air was gonna take it. Nope.
            Then Spicejet was supposed to get it. Nope.
            Finally it went to the lessor, who has it stored in Toulouse. Which is ICBC of China.

            Now, here’s something to get your noodle baking a bit:

            Let’s say you, Bryce – are a lessor. Let’s say that you have an order for a Max, that you’ve tried to place with airlines. Airlines are not taking your aircraft, as evidenced by the ‘stored’ designation.

            Now – you’re not the only lessor. SMBC, ICBC, Sky Leasing et al., all have Max’s sitting. Collecting dust, Costing money.

            As a matter of fact, there are over 3 pages on PlaneSpotters of parked and stored aircraft.

            So Boeing comes to you and says “Hey, we have your aircraft ready – pay up!” But that thing is going nowhere. Are you:

            1) Going to pay Boeing, as contracted, and let it sit?
            2) Cancel, because you can —>grounding?
            3) Work out some beneficial deal, IN YOUR FAVOUR?

            Boeing needs it delivery numbers to go up. You know this. Wall Street wants to hear that inventory is getting cleared. Perhaps, because you hold the cash – and cash is king, you say to Boeing:

            “Listen, we tried and tried (especially in the ICBC aircraft case) and we can’t place it. Airlines don’t want it and we don’t want to lose money on it. We can avail ourselves of the cancellation policy or…

            ….maybe, just maybe – we leave the jet where it is. We’ll try and place it. When we find an airline that’ll sign on the dotted line and pony up some money, we’ll pay you for it. Until then, we both wait. But you can tell the world we ‘took’ delivery, so your delivery numbers look good. You don’t break out revenue by customer, so no one will ever know.”

            I would…

          • @TW

            Where’s the rule of law and international order when one can freely military intervene a sovereign nation at its convenience?

        • Bryce:

          “I didn’t bring up Grenada — that was Pedro.”

          Birds of a feather

          “@Bill7 asked you a very pointed question about Native Americans, which I’ll paraphrase here using your own words:

          “Better would be to ask the good folks of various Native American reservations if they really wanted to be (forcibly displaced) under “Confederate” rule?”

          That has no answer so its not worth answering. The Mongols raped and pillaged their way across the world a long time ago. I had no control over that either.

          The Native Americans were warring and killing each other before we came, no question the White side (from Europe) was more efficient about the whole thing.

          My antecedents came to the US well after that was all over. You can suppose some of them engaged in their own raping and pillaging (DNA indicates some Mongolian heredity)

          One German member was traced to bringing home a Polish Bride (married in that case and they were still in Germany).

          So, Belgium and the Congo are far more recent examples of slavery and exploitation are they not?

          I don’t hold that against Belgium of today. Where I would have issue with if they supported Putin or Xi. Then yes, they are of that ilk.

          I treat all human beings as best I can. That includes the Japanese who were doing their level best at the time to kill my father in the Pacific Campaign.

          While I do not support the Vietnamese dictator, I do marvel at the people of that country. US citizens are welcomed by them. I could be wrong but it seems they look on us as just one of any number of invaders that have been defeat (granted with Soviet help but I certainly do not blame them)

          Bill7 is lumped himself in with you and Pedro of which many posts are not worth responding to, many not even read.

          • @ TW

            Another convoluted rant — this time including an insult directed toward Native Americans, whose grievances are “not worth” addressing according to you.

            One is reminded of a bull in a porcelain shop: no logic, no direction, no subtlety.

          • ” I had no control over …”
            How similar to the lame excuse from Dave: no more than a front-row *”moviegoer”*. 😂

  30. And now (if permitted) a little levity and a lot of truth – about what the world has become:

    If Airlines Were Honest

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRxzXPkbpnc

    Anyone else love them some Roger?

    Off topic, but still great:

    If Social Media Were Honest

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P30zKmCEtRM

    It takes some thinking, to cut through the BS. Unfortunately, there are those out there who don’t engage the most important six inches (between the ears) before putting things out there.

  31. The World is round!

    -> Shunned in Europe, Russian Fuel Is Flooding to the Middle East
    Arrivals hit a record in June and may climb higher in July
    More European Union sanctions are set to kick in next year

    https://mobile.twitter.com/staunovo/status/1547093493725728773?cxt=HHwWisC4_b3VsPgqAAAA

    => @IEA warns on its monthly report that “higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand”. In addition, “the surging US dollar has compounded the rising costs of oil,” it said

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1547133396459077634?cxt=HHwWhICywZDowvgqAAAA

    How well the “West’s” current sanctions work (other than boomerang)?? That’s the best the smartest guys can dream up??

    • Pedro:

      I am shocked, I say shocked. Everyone knows the world is square and you can fall off the edge.

  32. LHA writes:
    “Should all the China orders be placed on our “at-risk” list? LNA’s Vincent Valery thinks so. I don’t. I still think that eventually China will take all the MAXes and 787s in storage and resume placing orders. Airbus, and China’s COMAC, can’t possibly fulfill future demand. China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China.”
    https://leehamnews.com/2021/07/07/heres-why-china-needs-boeing-as-much-as-boeing-needs-china/

    I agree with Vincent. Just look at the linked article. In it LNA (Scott?) writes:
    “Bottom line: Unless the government elects to strike a major imbalance between Boeing and Airbus as suppliers, and assuming Airbus dramatically boosts production rates to 70 or more as officials discussed, China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China.”

    There are strong indications that both those predicates are turning out to be true and that China does NOT need Boeing as much as Boeing needs China:
    1. The recent order for Airbus is a sign of the Chinese gov electing for an imbalance.
    2. Airbus continues to be committed to rates of over 7o narrow bodies, well over, I think the latest is 75 A32xs and 14 A220s by 2025 for a total of 89.
    https://simpleflying.com/airbus-aims-for-50-increase-in-a320-production-by-2025/
    https://globalnews.ca/news/8718583/airbus-new-facility-production-a220-planes/

    Moreover the biggest blocker to rate increases is engines and the OEMs are drawing from a shared pool. Ordering from Boeing will not get China more aircraft because there are just not enough engines. If Airbus got contracts committing the engine manufacturers to supplying it with 89 pairs by 2025 (and if they are promising other suppliers those rates then I expect they have) and the total capacity is around 120 pairs per month then there is no way for Boeing to go much over 31 737 per month. Now CFM may choose to allocate more to Boeing and throttle Airbus a bit, but P&W has no such incentive, the opposite in fact.

    One thing I’d love to know is if during the 737 grounding Boeing renegotiated with CMF committing itself to fewer engines and if so what numbers? Is that why Airbus can consider going to 75 on the A32x because Boeing scaled back its commitment to CFM and Airbus snapped those engines up? If done on spec it was a bold go for the jugular move, or perhaps Airbus got some back-channel indications of orders to come from China!?

    • jbeekoL

      Some good thoughts but also to be kept in mind that the Leap on the MAX and the Leap on the A320NEO are different engines.

      CFM would have to shift mfg around to achieve more Airbus engines (which is part of the supply chain issues). In normal times they might pull it off but now?

      Equally at some point there will be a discussion of Airbus and China and the balance problem it creates (letting China get away using it as a wedge)

      I know there will be screaming and hollering that, its political. Well, wake up, its always part political and China is not buying Airbus because its better or pricing but to punish the US.

      The overall China issue has gone to NATO and its an EU issue as well (wake up and smell the roses). China almost had a really sweet give away deal and then got belligerent.

      If China changes its tune publicly ? Hmmm. Then back to the Soviet Gas and Oil aspect.

      Or as Khrushchev said, We Will Bury You (do you dig your own grave?)

      Anyone who thinks China is normal is as Unhinged as the White house was.

      And yes, we get the ad hominem of atacks and deflection, Yada Yada Yada. If you can’t sort out the difference then Unhinge and Delusional applies (which is not an attack but a valid assessment)

      I will refer you to Charles Lindbergh. Fringe of the Nazi’s in the US. Or the great witness at the Jan 6 hearing Ayers. Both woke up to the fact that while far from perfect, the US as a democracy is better.

      • The first 2 paragraphs were a reply to @jbeeko’s excellent comment.

        The 8 paragraphs after that were a convoluted ramble/tirade based on typical 1950s propaganda.

        Another awe-inspiring Editorial from the Icy North 😏

      • @Trans

        ‘Anyone who thinks China is normal is as Unhinged as the White house was.’

        Normal? Compared to what?

        Would you be shocked to find out that maybe, just maybe – people around the world, peer nations, look at what is happening in America;

        the regular school shootings, gun rights, rights taken away from women to decide what happens to their bodies, the police and their own brand of justice, the medical system for profit, the prison system for profit, the trillions spent on weapons, attempted overthrow of a democratically elected government…

        …and say “That is not normal.” Even before Trump.

        The US is a scary place, now. I won’t visit there (and I’m not a shrinking violet, by any stretch) because I would be afraid of getting caught at the wrong place at the wrong time. I have family there. I even used to live there, in the south. Thanks, but no thanks.

        It’s said (straight from the horse’s mouth) that you cannot bad mouth the government in China. You’ll get in trouble.

        Let’s say that you and I were visiting the southern US, bible belt, red state. We walk into a cafe, restaurant or bar and start to have a conversation about how Trump has really messed up the country.

        Would you feel safe, getting into that conversation in public, amongst strangers, there? Without a sidearm strapped to your side?

        I know, personally know – people who have visited, stayed in and even worked in China. The food can sometimes be a little crappy. You don’t ever talk politics. You can go out and chase the girls.

        No one has ever said to me, “I didn’t feel safe, there”

        (unless they were trying some shady street vendor food, they didn’t know…)

        There’s a tension in the air, in the US, that you can sometimes cut with a knife. You live there, you’re used to it. It’s only outsiders, or those who live elsewhere and then return, who notice it.

        This isn’t a ‘bash the US’ post or praise China, either. I live in a pretty good place. I would never say we’re ‘better’ than some other place. Especially one that I have never visited. It would be akin to me saying “My house is nicer that the neighbors. I’ve never been there, never seen it – but mine is better.”

        • Frank:

          The reality is that I and the rest of us are saddled with a Document that is deemed the law of the country (and the Supreme Court no matter how they have to pretzel it won’t let us forget it)

          While I don’t want to turn this into a gun debate, one of our illustrious Supremos severed one clause from another and deemed it a Federal Right to be armed (for better and at times worse, its historically a state right and all of which we got from the UK)

          That in turn gets complex as the UK really has no founding base document and as such, they can change the laws (and a better representation of the people in the government as well I think though that does not mean the people are perfect in their choices)

          And yes I am aware of the gun violence in this country. And while its not a like for like comparison, the people of Hong Kong if they could vote, wold they trade that for the storm troopers occupied their enclave now? I don’t know, armed people are not the same as free people despite what we call 2nd Amenmentors contend. Nor are they keeping us free (I lean on the side that the 2nd had some basis in keeping tyranny at bay via State Militias and rights)

          It was a flawed concept, the State Militias ran, the line trained troops are what stood (Ethan Allen and his rangers aside) – nothing is going to stand up to a trained Army though one can be defeated (as we well know) by guerilla warfare (Nam and Afghanistan). Arguably we were trying to do the right think in Afghanistan and failed as have all in history and no one can change that.

          A neighbor had to go to one of the Sand Boxes and made a comment about safety. I laughed at him and told him he was in more danger going to the base and getting hit by stray rounds being lobbed about than where he was going (one of the relatively safe dictatorships!)

          Yes I have traveled to foreign countries.

          I also spent a winter down in Oakland area. The one time I tried an alternative route home through Oakland and then South. The hostility was palatable and it was, oh god don’t let my motorcycle break down now. Did I blame the predominantly black people of Oakland? Nope, I just did not want to get brutalized or killed. That was back in the 70s.

          I had a friend who was black and I got invited to an all black party. Phew, the only thing he said was be on your best behaviour and there are 5 of us who will make sure nothing happens. I went and no issues.
          But like your example of Trump and the South, there sure as blazes were subject I was not going to join in on or bring up. There was NO other side there.

          From what I red there are parts of all European cities that are just like that. Muslims don’t seem to like how they are treated either.

          Part of my life is I know where not to go (like bars at night!).

          What I do know is I don’t want to live in a dictatorship that the government comes knocking at your door and hauls you off to prison because of politics (which is different than a Red crowd and Trump)

          Yes I was to the Philippines when it was well under Marcos and I saw the poverty as well as what was a prosperous remnants of what it was before. I had a 5 person escort to get me out of the airport with my tools, parts and baggage intact.

          If I had been taken into the Customs office I was ready to give up all the tools and parts I was carrying (the parts at lest were probably illegal into the Philippines though they were going to Clark AFB so probably legal, just not the route I had to take (no I did not want to go, yes my job was involved and I tried to get flown into Clark direct but no go)

          I don’t want to live in Japan either, too crowded for an Alaska guy, not my culture.

          I have been on the bad side of getting killed at least half a dozen times in my life. None of it had to do with guns.

          On the flip side if you are a Uighur and in a concentration camp let alone a woman? Does it happen here, oh yea, its not state run.

          I don’t want to live in the UK or the EU either. Not my culture and the regulations would be a shock (Brexit).

          So yes, I will make my preference clear, I don’t want to live in a dictatorship. That does not mean I won’t someday and maybe not all that distant down the road.

          What I don’t like is those who admire dictators nor those who benefit from a Democracy and don’t see the difference.

          I don’t want to see our Service people fighting in the Pacific (again). Its worth keeping in mind that the Japanese used the same rhetoric and nationalist ranting that China is using.

          Equally the world is intertwined and for my part, I would like to keep the squabbles peaceful. I don’t want my country invading another one. That said, what does the US do if the Drug Cartels take over Mexico?

          And to put plain, I loath what Israel is doing and equally I can’t do anything about US policy (I live in a Red State and one of my so called representatives is going to listen to me).

          Its a complex world and anyone who claims they have the answer is dangerous (and very likely or a given Unhinged and Delusional)

          I don’t have anything against other people, regardless of race or creed or nationality.

          I do have a problem with people that want to impose their stuff on me and I have an issue with those who think they are superior (almost certain if not certain from the same camp).

          I know the US has problems, some are severe. Gun violence is one of them but what most do not know is the vast majority are suicides (mass killings get the headlines just like Plane crashes though its Auto Crash and Hospital that kill an insane larger number)

          Oddly gun deaths de-stablzie society and car crashes or hospitals deaths do not despite the large or larger numbers. Go figure.

          • @Trans

            ‘On the flip side if you are a Uighur and in a concentration camp let alone a woman? Does it happen here, oh yea, its not state run.’

            Not state run, huh?

            I guess you missed the whole thing about Donnie separating Mexican children from their parents, looking for a better life away from the Cartels who sell their product to US citizens, that made their areas a mess. All those people want to do is pick your vegetables or wait at the home depot for anyone who needs their grass cut or new shingles slapped on their roofs…at a cut rate.

            Gitmo ring a bell? You’re right – that’s not a concentration camp, that’s a straight out torture prison. Who runs that?

            How about Japanese internment camps? Happened a while back, but pretty sure it was policy.

            Women? God forbid you choose to not have a child and avail yourself to a medical procedure to terminate a pregnancy – even if you are a 10 year old girl who was raped. They’ll put you in jail for that. Definitely state run.

            ‘I don’t have anything against other people, regardless of race or creed or nationality.’

            Well, this is good, because there seems to be a segment of you that does and anyone who is not a WASP is a potential target. “Jews will not replace us!” ring a bell? I though those guys were off the list since the Muslims took their place and Jared was Donnie’s son in law with Ivanka converting. Didn’t everyone get the memo? Good people on both sides, there – straight from the Prez himself…

            ‘What I do know is I don’t want to live in a dictatorship that the government comes knocking at your door and hauls you off to prison because of politics (which is different than a Red crowd and Trump) ‘

            Yah, they just come to the seat of government, build a gallows and look for elected Reps, including the VP & Speaker of the House, to hang – just like in the good old days.
            .
            .
            .
            My point is, perhaps it’s time to stop throwing rocks at other nations, as an excuse for Boeing’s failings. They crashed two aircraft, killed hundreds of foreigners, blamed everyone else, the President sanctioned these countries for stuff the US has done (and worse) and here the case is being made how bad China is, when the same can be said for other nations, as well.

            Going on about feelings about perceived freedoms, dictatorships and who is believed to be lacking as justification to further corporate/national interests is a slippery slope. No one is asking you to leave Alaska. If it works for you, it’s all good, by me.

            Is China wrong, even Draconian, in the way it’s handling some things? Yes. The mirror also says they’re not alone.

            Hardly someone who is religious, I am sometimes astounded by those who follow ‘His’ word, as ‘One nation under God’ when they seem to forget those famous lines ‘Judge not, lest ye be judged’ and ‘Let he who has not sinned, cast the first stone’.

            Time to stop going on about China’s shortcomings, so others (like myself) can stop holding up a mirror.

            (You wanna hear a good one, before I leave? The family I mentioned I have, living in the US, lives in a Red area. Strong anti-Mexico sentiment in an upscale neighborhood. Except that everyone there has ‘A Mexican’ that is an illegal and does work for each homeowner. Some of them are more skilled than others, at specific jobs. It get’s put out, in the community, if ‘your Mexican’ is good at something. If someone, for instance, needs drywall hung – you go visit Billy Bob three doors down and ask when it would be convenient to borrow ‘your Mexican’ and for how long they can have him. GC’s know they can’t compete with these cut-rate guys, so they don’t even bother offering services, as the good folks in the area, have it all worked out. Local gov’t turns a blind eye because it’s what the people want – cheap, exploitable labour that they can barter like cattle. Those other ‘Mexicans’ coming across the border are bad – but I have a good one, so leave him alone. Besides, his wife will babysit the kids for $2 an hour while we go out for a night on the town and who wants to lose that? And let me tell you, these people have million dollar homes and have the money to pay licensed contractors to do the work, but I guess that’s one of the way of how they stay rich. Exploiting and and squeezing every last penny possible – kind of like a corporation we all know. You ever hear of stories like that?)

          • @Bryce

            Apparently Sarah Palin moved back home. That would explain a lot…

      • “I know there will be screaming and hollering that, its political. Well, wake up, its always part political and China is not buying Airbus because its better or pricing but to punish the US.”

        Some people believe the A321NEO is better than what Boeing offers. E.g. the airlines.

        • > Some people believe the A321NEO is better than what Boeing offers. E.g. the airlines. <

          Thanks for this *reality-based* comment.

        • Our poster should take own advice: Wake up and smell the roses.

          Unfortunately it’s a popular myth that many suck up and refuse to face the reality.

      • Hello Duke

        As you and Transworld point out there is a difference between the engines for the 32x and the 737. But your WSJ link supports my argument that GE/Safram can adjust the mix fairly quickly. In fact from the opening paragraph it seems by December 2019, 9 months after the grounding, the mix was already 58% going to Airbus and 42% going to Boeing. Its been 2.5 years since then so I expect they will have been able to move it further if they choose to.

        • jbeeko:

          Yes they can and will shift. But they also have to keep on eye on the Boeing commitments so they are not going to go all in but do so slowly.

          No question over time they could go all Airbus. That obviously is not going to happen.

          Boeing seems to have achieved its initial ramp up (stay tuned with supply issues) so GE will maintain a comfortable cushion in the US and Safran will have to negotiate with Airbus how fast they can ramp up the CFM pair to supply Airbus ( Europe, US and China)

          CFM is not going to destabilize the Boeing deliveries for Airbus Deliveries.

          They will support Airbus ramp up as fast as they can.

          Keep in mind the WSJ is a right wing rag (grin)

  33. @ Frank
    I don’t (fully) follow your reasoning above.
    BA still has lots of undelivered whitetails in the parking lot, and there are probably plenty of cancelled frames among those. They could have shifted 20 of those cancelled frames, couldn’t they? We know that at least one such frame went to Akasa in India — that’s the only way that it could have been delivered so quickly.

    Do the planespotter lists count whitetails, or just new production?

    • From the top, let’s look at just one example;

      You’re able to link onto the planespotters page, right? Sorted by all June on the last page?

      (Dammit, planespotters wants me to create a login now, I used their site so often this morning…sigh, here comes more spam messages)

      The geeks at PS have 40 deliveries in June 2022, right? (You gotta squint and count, but that’s what it’s showing…)

      Let’s follow this one:

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-9m-lrd-batik-air-malaysia/r7w11y

      Ok.

      Manufacturer Serial Number (MSN) 42986
      Line Number 6034

      This aircraft first flew in March 2017 and if you scroll down, it was delivered to Batik Air Malaysia, on May 23, 2017.

      So let’s say the story ended there. Boeing got paid for it’s 737Max 8 it delivered. In it’s financials for Q2, it got counted as a delivery, revenue was recognized for the quarter, final payments were made, journal entries made – and Boeing told the world that it sold and was paid for this aircraft. It, along with the other deliveries for Q2/2017 were certified as true, signed off by the auditors and all the responsibilities that go with a publicly traded company.

      On the Boeing scorecard for deliveries for the quarter (and then year end) it gave the numbers a +1.

      With me, so far?

      Now look at all the details after that;

      It moved to Lion Air (leased from BBAM)
      The onto flynas (leased from Lionair)
      Then back to Lion Air (ret – returned from Lease)
      Then back to Batik (leased from BBAM)

      But here it is, counted in June 2022 aircraft in Planespotters, as one of 40 Max’s delivered. Now Boeing said they delivered 43 during the month.

      Planespotters is usually pretty close with their numbers. If you look at page 20, you can see 3 for delivery in July, that could have been added into June, to make the numbers look good.

      So going on the assumption that the Planespotters numbers are correct and that those 40 aircraft are the ones that Boeing is claiming as delivered, there are:

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-c-gorp-swoop/rmdlx7

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-c-gjkk-swoop/ro1620

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-9h-chi-smartlynx-malta/e0novv

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-oe-lcv-sky-leasing/ejjq1k

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-oe-izm-sky-leasing/epwg04

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-ps-gpf-gol-transportes-aereos/e5ow9x

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-max-8-9m-lrd-batik-air-malaysia/r7w11y

      7 aircraft that show up in their June 2022 delivery numbers, that were previously delivered to airlines or lessors.

      Could Planespotters be off 10 or so serial numbers in production? A couple, sure, but 10? (those 7 plus the 3 in July to get to 43)

      Boeing doesn’t detail who got an aircraft and who didn’t, do they? You get a lump figure and everyone says – ‘that’s it!’

      Look fishy to you?

    • No – white tails aren’t broken out. Which is why I hate you even more for asking me about them, as I then went back and started looking at aircraft that were supposed to be for one airline and got sent elsewhere.

      You gotta stop asking me this stuff!!!

      (I swear I am not OCD. I swear I am not OCD. I swear I am not OCD. I swear I an not OCD. I swear…)

      • Frank:

        You sound like the FedEx guy I reported to. He said he wanted to have bullet statements but even a good bullet statement has to be supported by a facts and those are often hard to sort.

        For what I did, that was my job, to get facts. So yes I can talk Generators us and Swithchgear, Air Compressors and Boilers and Pumps all day long (to save poor Bryce I won’t) but those in depth details are not something you can acquire and should not.

        You should be able to ask your Heating guy, what is the best boiler? (in the EU is, can we get one that runs on diesel too? – and yes those exist though not in the form of the Uber efficient Low Loss header type the EU has mandated) -Granted you have to trust your heating guy.

        But the reality is that who has what white tails and how many is not relevant to a policy decision or a discussion.

        Boeing is not going to release any details so all we can see is the Average situation.

        There are some who follow that in detail but all they can tell you is, its still there.

        Factually a True Whitetail is a built aircraft that has no interior nor painted.

        All you can do is count and if a Chinese painted aircraft gets pulled and it does not go to China, its been bought by someone else and is being changed.

        China might elect to take recent production MAX or they may go all Airbus and time will tell. No one can tell you what is in the mind of the Chairman, what happens (claiming the South China Sea but not defending it) does.

        As my mother would say, Stay Tuned (well she also said to me, well done on many occasions!)

        • ‘Boeing is not going to release any details so all we can see is the Average situation.’

          That is correct, sir. This is why Bryce and I are making good sport on speculating about such things. He asks a tricky question and I stupidly rise to the occasion.

          July 27th, then…

          • Frank:

            The term we use in Alaska is Fish On!

            I just destroy his arguments, no running down Rabbit Holes for me!

            Good luck.

          • @ TW

            “I just destroy his arguments”

            Actually, all you try to do is to bury them under vast mounts of rubbish — but that’s not the same as destroying them 😉

    • Yes, the roosters have crowed in Fairbanks…brace yourselves!

      • Just how high can the combination of irrelevancies, TMI personal details, and nonsequiturs be piled
        by that one? “Stay Tuned!”

        dear me, no. 😉

        • Did he say that dealing with “facts” and “reality” as part of his job?? 🙄

      • Well clearly he can’t be typing and asleep (I probably should re-think that due to the lack of rationality of the comments)

        Me? I don’t care as the 919 is dated and will continue to be dated more and more as time goes on.

        What would be interesting is to know if CFM has put any more development into the LEAP-C.

        Granted if the Chinese could reverse engineer and engine it would be an issue but it is the hardest thing in the world to reverse engineer (not for a lack of trying).

        Urban Legend is that when the Soviets copied US B-29 they copied all the numbers and stamps do, I don’t buy that but????)

        • Apart from being a smaller fanned version of the Leap-1A which gives it a smaller BPR ( some say they are the same?)
          The core architecture is the same ( while Boeings -1B version isnt) with stages having same RPM etc. Thrust levels differ but thats the same for all versions of the A as well.
          They were certified by EASA on the same type certificate just different dates but have thrust reverser ,fan shroud and pylons etc different.
          However EASA gives quite heavier weights for the C , but says they include liquids and thrust reverser
          The C isnt so far approved for Etops capability, but thats understandable

          And confirming again that engines for Airbus can be assembled in US
          Type Cert for A and C versions
          ‘Engines produced by GE (USA) are identical to, and fully interchangeable with, engines produced by Safran Aircraft Engines (France)

          • It’s the integration aspect of the LEAP-1C that I’m particularly interested in: engine, nacelle, pylon.

            signed, Chinese/Russian Agent

            😉

        • “Granted if the Chinese could reverse engineer and engine it would be an issue but it is the hardest thing in the world to reverse engineer (not for a lack of trying).”

          Engines are hard to reverse engineer because much of the IP is process IP. For example while the shape of turbine blades can be copied by looking at them the process of growing them from a single crystal can’t. Same for coatings, or how to create fan blades etc. etc. Moreover to get certified these processes needs to be repeatable and verifiable.

        • @ TW

          “Me? I don’t care as the 919 is dated and will continue to be dated more and more as time goes on.”

          And the 1960s MAX *isn’t* dated?

    • You see that throughout the industry. Some people were let go, others moved to others industries themselves. More job security, better salaries. It’s a major reason for the delays/ shortages the industry is facing at this moment. And many are not coming back. they don’t want to get burned twice..

      Companies with long term views that invested/ paid for keeping people onboard instead of managing short term cash flow seem best of now. Lessons learned (?)

    • In a capitalist’s world

      -> One benefit for Delta from all the new hires who are *replacing mostly longer-tenured staff who left during the pandemic* is what is called “juniority.” Basically, the airline is emerging from a crisis with a newer — or more junior — workforce than before and *at lower cost*

  34. @ Frank
    Let’s get back to our discussion of June MAX deliveries.
    The esteemed @Pedro recently drew our attention to at least one MAX whose painting was delayed due to rework. In that context, one wonders what percentage of new-build MAXs are first heading to the parking lot to await rework, e.g. de-FOD. And following on: could the June figure comprise even more than 20 whitetails? Or some re-worked frames from previous months?
    Important question, because it determines margins.

    • @Bryce

      I’m not running through that goddamn list anymore! lol

      Here’s what I will say on this:

      ‘And following on: could the June figure comprise even more than 20 whitetails? Or some re-worked frames from previous months?
      Important question, because it determines margins.’

      So, correct me if I’m wrong, but BA took hits on the 737Max program, during the grounding – and losses, some say to the tune of $20billion +, yes?

      Well, who’s to say how much of a loss was taken against a particular aircraft, which would effect it’s margin upon delivery? Especially with program accounting as a useful tool on their side?

      Example:

      Let’s say, for instance that the margin on a delivered 737 Max is $5 million, during normal times. That’s what the boys in accounting have said and that’s what we’re going to recognize. It’s what we’ve estimated and it is, what we say it is.

      Well, three years later and a bunch of planes sitting around costing money, the margin on a particular Max ready for delivery is pretty much gone. When everything is totaled, all the interest charges, all the maintenance, all the re-work, all the updates and all the salaries in the office attributed to that aircraft, have put it in the red. It actually cost you $7 million more, so now you’re in a $2 million loss.

      Well – we can’t deliver an aircraft and tell everyone we’re losing money on it, can we? Not after so many quarters of losses, not after the hammering our stock has taken, not after all the bad press that’s been printed about us in Leeham News. No sir.

      So what can we do?

      Well look;

      The new jets coming off the line are OK. We’ve worked out the kinks and got the processes sorted and can reasonably claim that we’re making our $5 million margin on those. So what do we do with those 12, since we told the world we are making 31 and we delivered 43?

      Well, we can say that the overages were rolled into the loss we took as a one time expense. Or, we can also add it into the DPB and kick the can down the road. It’s only $84 million for those 12 jets at $7 million a pop, but it’ll make those aircraft seem valuable and viable, by making the margin seem palatable. Wall Street will look at it as a step in the right direction and it’ll seem like we’re not as deep in it, on those planes in inventory, as we are.

      Just shuffle the numbers around a bit – we can do it, under our accounting rules, based on how we determine to classify those ‘extras’.

      So yah, they can make the margin look better, take a small one time ‘abnormal’, maybe next quarter – blame it on China politics, for instance, and move on.

      After 3 years (and the plane guys in here would know the requirements and costs required to keep an aircraft in ‘flyable’ condition better that I could) IMO I am highly doubtful that there is any ‘true’ margin left on those aircraft. (In a previous article, I remember Scott saying that changing an aircraft from one airline to another is a $5 to $7 million proposition. That eats the whole shebang, doesn’t it?)

      Scott also mentioned this above: Boeing is trying to convince people that those aircraft should have the same value attributed to them, as one that is freshly built, right off the line.

      That shows me they’re struggling with inventory valuation (the other side of the equation – costs being the flip) or what revenue you are generating for your product.

      A lowered value and increased costs on inventory lead to smaller margins.

      But we can hide that elsewhere in the financials.

      • @ Frank
        Let’s forget past bookings for the moment and just concentrate on cashflow in Q2. Consider the following scenarios:

        (1) New build / delivered in Q2. The costs of manufacturing have to be paid by BA in Q2 (one assumes), whereas the customer only has to make a relatively small final payment upon delivery. How do these two opposed cash streams balance out, i.e. what cash is left for BA to put in the kitty?

        (2) Canceled whitetail. The costs of conversion have to be paid in Q2 (the $5-7M referred to above by Scott), but the customer has to pay the full sale amount upon delivery. I suspect that this puts more cash in the kitty than (1) above, despite the sale price being much lower than for a regular frame.

        I suspect that the deposits on new orders may represent more (net) cash income than these orders.

        I’m asking this purely from the point of cash burn / intake — not from the point of view of booked expenses for purposes of window dressing.

        • @Bryce

          ‘Let’s forget past bookings for the moment and just concentrate on cashflow in Q2.’

          Cashflow is different, Bryce. Nothing to do with margin. Margin tells the world how much you make from operations, exclusive of one time events. Or recurring one time events. Or in BA’s case, continual one time events.

          Cashflow is how much money you run through the company. For instance; from the Q1/2022 financials

          https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/1Q22-Press-Release.pdf

          Boeing reports $52.5 billion in advances.

          That cash, given to them by customers, for deposits and pdp’s. That’s a lot. They don’t have $52.5 billion in the bank, do they? No, that cash was spent. Gone. (On a side note, if you remove all of the DPB, tooling and everything else from all the programs in Inventory – I don’t think that BA has enough to cover the Advances account, if they were able to sell all their inventory in one fell swoop. But I digress…)

          Margin is an income statement item. Cash and equivalents are on the balance sheet.

          So, how could we determine cash inflow?

          Well, how much cash is Boeing going to get for those 43Max’s & 8 WB’s they delivered, which is a function of purchase price less any deposits or credits (cough cough). We can only guess at that.

          Also, how many deposits did Boeing take in, during the quarter? PDP’s from customers?

          What about any revenues generated from investments? Other divisions? Did space kick butt during the quarter? Services? Did Uncle Sam scratch them a big cheque for some pork work to be done in the future – monies that they will have to spend now?

          So then what you do, is add up all of the cash inflows to the company. Then they will have to subtract all of the money they paid out; suppliers, employees, kickbacks (I jest…) etc

          Then you get a number. If it’s negative, well, they’ll have to break into the piggy bank, liquidate some investments and pay the bills, like they have had to, to the tune of billions, over the past few quarters.

          You can make margin look good. Cash, well – it’s cash. Unless they get huge deposits from customers to spend on current obligations, which only kicks the can down the road.

          Side note:

          Here’s the thing about cash deposits. Let’s say You and I are two different airlines. I ordered my jets before you did, got in the queue before you did, made my deposits before you did. In normal times, BA takes my money and orders stuff for my aircraft, Pays suppliers, pays employees, keeps some of my money in the bank to pay for their progress expenses, as my aircraft get built. Now you come along and place your order, you make your deposits.

          Then disaster strikes. The Max is grounded. Boeing is scrambling for cash, to put out fires.

          Well, what’s happened to your money? Did it get spent on your aircraft? Nope. It went to pay for ‘other’ things. All those deposits of $52.5 billion got spent on stuff that is not for you. It’s so bad, as a matter of fact, that Boeing went out and borrowed another $55 billion (current LT balance) to pay for things.

          So you gotta trust Boeing, that they’re going to find the money to pay for the building of your aircraft, whether they gotta beg, borrow or steal it. Even if it means they have to use the NEXT guys deposits, to pay for your builds. Or the next one. Or the next one.

          Now let’s run through a hypothetical;

          Somewhere, somehow, in the near future, another Max goes down (I’m not wishing it, it’s only a risk assessment). Let’s say there’s another grounding. Then customers (airlines) get nervous. One airline avails itself to cancelling it’s order. Then there’s a run on the type. Maybe it’s pilot error, but emotions run wild, in the meantime. Airlines start backing out of deals and Boeing has to refund deposits.

          The deposits from the guy 3 orders down from you, which was going to pay for your aircraft, pulls out.

          When you kick the can down the road, like has been done here – stealing from Peter to pay Paul, you really increase the risk a customer takes on you. Especially with big ticket items.

          Maybe it’s not so bad for BA, because people have the feeling that Uncle Sam will step in and save the day. But I would hazard a guess to say that airlines feel more comfortable ordering from the competition; who’s balance sheet is healthier, who talks about putting 10 billions euro’s away for a rainy day, who hasn’t spent their cash on buybacks and dividends and at the end of the day, seems to have a better product for them. I’m sure this factors (at least a small part) into the decision making process for orders.

          I’m pretty sure Boeing knows, on a per place basis, how much has been spent from customers deposits on an aircraft, how much work and expenses there is left to be done on it and if they are short on the job.

          They also know, how much extra it cost them if an aircraft is a white tail, or had rework done.

          They’ll never tell us. I think that the details would scare investors too much…

          Cash diatribe done

          • I think we’re on the same line, even if expressing the issue differently: the cash inflow on these “record” deliveries for June probably won’t be enough to cover expenses in June, bearing in mind the huge interest repayments per quarter. Cash received as deposits on (meager) orders also won’t be stellar. This may explain why most analysts expect a Q2 loss, and an increase in net debt / decrease in available cash.

            p.s. Yes, I abused the term “margin” — not to indicate the markup on a sale, but — in this case — to indicate the residual cash intake upon delivery.

  35. @ TW
    How about stopping the lengthy, convoluted, pointless rants about the human rights situation in China, and instead concentrating on the technical and commercial aspects of this LNA article? In the current context, the term “geopolitical” refers to government policy on trade — not all sorts of digressions into alleged internment camps, annexations, wars, etc. Despite all sorts of hints and counterarguments above, you just don’t seem to be getting the message.

  36. Yah I don’t think weaponizing USA economy will bring you good you lost a 300 planes deal and crying, what will happen if China decides that dosent need USA made cars too? What will happen if China decides to rise the prices by 100% or even double them on all minerals? This is not your wild west cawboy fantasy, there global reprications when you fk with ppl

  37. Interesting: Michael O’Leary may be warming to Airbus 🤔

    “Ryanair no longer axing Lauda’s Airbus A320 leases”

    “Ryanair’s subsidiary Lauda Europe will not be switching to an all Boeing 737 fleet as previously indicated. Instead, the airline will extend the Airbus A320 leases for another four years from 2024 to 2028, Ryanair Group’s chief executive Michael O’Leary said at a conference in Vienna on July 13, 2022, Aviation Week reported. ”

    https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/31593-ryanair-lauda-europe-will-extend-a320-leases

    • Now that is interesting. I wonder if he’ll still want the [hypothetical] Boeing MAX™10s.

      • Indeed!
        Last week’s announcement that the MAX-10 could potentially be cancelled, must have been an unpleasant wake-up call for O’Leary. His main competitors all have A321s, and he has nothing that size in his fleet or on order.

        • I doubt that the Boeing MAX™10s will be canceled, but that O’Leary is hedging at all seems significant to me, given past events.

        • Heard of the Max-8-200, seems O’Leary has . Just imagine how many pass the Max-10 could have in Ryan service

      • MOL just have to hold his breath for a few more years, a new jet is coming, we heard!

        The ave age of the fleet is over 15 yr old and one almost 21 yr old.

        • If he were clever, he’d call AB and ask if any of those ex-Qatar A321s are still available…

          • He seems clever enough to me, and doing what’s he’s doing WRT those leases
            is a quieter way to a similar result, I think. It’s make AB’s sales team perk up
            either way.

          • @ Bill7
            There’s a distinct coolness at AB when it comes to Michael O’Leary.
            AB burned its fingers in the past: allegedly, O’Leary would act like he was in a serious negotiation, when he was in fact just trying to get a whittled-down price that he could quote to BA in order to get a better offer on his 737s.
            I doubt that AB even bothers picking up the phone when O’Leary rings — not a pleasant situation to be in when O’Leary’s competitors have larger (and longer-range) planes than he does.

  38. JM Greer’s recent take on where we’re headed:

    “..The earth’s daily budget of sunlight is immense, but it’s also frustratingly diffuse. Hard thermodynamic limits restrict what humans can do with it, because you have to use energy—lots of it—to concentrate energy. That’s why plants can only store a tiny fraction of the sunlight that falls on them, and it’s also why attempts to run modern industrial societies entirely on sun and wind have worked so poorly. You can run a complex, literate, creative society on current solar input—all other human civilizations have done exactly that—but you can’t run the kind of complex society we have today, with the kind of extravagantly energy-wasting technology we consider essential. That requires something else.

    In our case, the “something else” was fossil fuels. Those are also forms of sunlight—the bodies of living things from the geological past—but they’ve been concentrated to a fantastic degree by millions of years of heat and pressure inside the earth itself. Nobody had to pay for that heat and pressure, and so it’s easy to forget just how important it is. To help counter that forgetfulness, imagine yourself shifting an ordinary compact car into neutral and pushing it down the road for thirty-five miles: the amount of energy your muscles used in that feat is in a single gallon of gasoline. That’s energy concentration, and it’s what made the modern world possible..”

    https://www.ecosophia.net/the-end-of-the-industrial-age/

    • Plus 100 Max planes, let me guess what model that might be ?

    • DL has plenty A319 and B717 that need replacement. A dozen or so new order is enough?

      Sure, BA can deliver what it promise. 😏 See WN MAX 7 debacle.

      • If DL is finally tempted to go for a MAX order, it’ll be because the airline will have been offered spectacular pricing.
        Seeing as BA has been chasing DL on this one, DL can dictate the order terms, e.g. waiver of deposits and liberal cancellation conditions.

        Dave may have been trying to intimidate Congress with his cancellation threat last week, but did he pause for a moment to consider what effect that stance might have had on customers? Who wants to wait in line for a show that looks like it’s going to get cancelled?

        • > Dave may have been trying to intimidate Congress with his cancellation threat last week, but did he pause for a moment to consider what effect that stance might have had on customers? <

          I had the same thought. Maybe there'a a Bigger Picture, though; I'm not sure.

          Anyone here have a favorite Mahler Sixth? Mine is Herbig/Saarbrücken, and by quite a ways, even if he uses the Scherzo-Andante ordering. Always open to others, though.

          • I like Mahler…but I prefer Bruckner and Wagner 👍

            For me, Rachmaninov is king 😎

      • @Pedro

        IIRC Delta also has 50 options for A220’s. Those 717’s are the leased ones, that Delta is paying for, no matter what.

        I guess we’ll see…

  39. DoU said: “..when Boeing built the NG with a new wing of larger area, more fuel volume and other improvements , it jumped ahead
    of ‘Airbus ‘ by almost 20 yrs’”

    So *that’s* why AB can’t develop any buyer interest in their A320/321s !
    Rewing that thing (ca 2027?) and you’ve got a nice little airplane, though.

    • Lighter weight from using latest design techniques for the wing
      https://leehamnews.com/2013/07/03/fuel-burn-a320-v-737/
      The jump was in the new design techniques

      ‘SAS reports a mere 0.001 difference in fuel burn per seat per kilometer in litres in favor of Boeing in each case–despite the 738 having 18 more seats, in which case the difference could be expected to be much greater.’
      These arent the latest new engine models

      I see the development 737-10 has arrived at Farnborough for the biennial air show.

      Is some big announcements in the offing ?

      • Yeah BA also flew the B777X to Dubai and wowed the crowd, a few short months later, another delay (this time at least a year) announced.

        What did Calhoun say? Risk of MAX 10 cancelation.

        Those who fail to learn from history are ….

      • If the MAX 8 is so great, why does MOL so eager for a deal of a larger variant?

        Sooner or later, BA finds out the MAX 8 become a niche model.

        BTW, according to DL the MAX 10 slots BTW A321 and 737-900. Hmmm …

        • Max 10 is , according to our friends at LNA is very very close to the seat capacity of the standard A321.
          Its 12 seats more ( 2 rows) than Max 9 if those rows are all standard economy, but the large US carriers usually have a mix of 1st class and economy plus as well economy .
          So Delta has 180 seats in its older model 737-900ER and has 192 seats in its A321 [ref Seatguru]. So clearly the Max 10 will match the A321 easily with 192 seats in its mixed classes in Delta service.

          based on SAS experience with the A320 and 737-800 the bigger Boeing had same fuel burn stats. Likely the Max 10 will have better fuel burn stats than the same seat capacity A321 neo.
          So that could mean the Boeing in practice is used on slightly longer routes, maybe to Caribbean and northern South America where the A321 would have to have empty seats or more ACT in the hold.

          • Reality is:

            Drum roll please …

            SAS itself ordered A320/321neo and retires its B737NG. The airline *did NOT order any MAX*.

            When does our poster “wake up and smell the roses”??

            PS: Fuel consumption is not as simple as 1-2-3. There are those that prefer simple solution (why McD is popular in certain country). That’s not the reality in real world. It depends a lot on engine choice, flight segments and how the aircraft is configured. 🤔

            PS 2: Very very close = number 2, the silver medalist or the first loser

          • …sound of guillotine SAS filed for bankruptcy this week.

            I can understand why they wanted to move to all Airbus fleet, but the debt has killed them.
            Maybe those 737 NG will be ‘unretired’

            Doesnt change the fact that 737-800NG got better fuel burn per passenger than the A320 CEO
            Perhaps they got a cheaper price for the A320 and didnt need the extra range you got with a standard 737 Max

          • @ DoU
            SAS did not “file for bankruptcy”…it filed for bankruptcy *protection*.
            Chapter 11 serves to keep creditors off of a company’s back while it “catches breath”.

          • The current products on the market is Neither B737NG Nor A320ceo.

            If sticking with the past would make our poster feel a bit better, yeah, be my guest.

            PS: SAS wants to negotiate with its bondholders, lessors (as many of its WB are grounded because the Russian air space is closed). Another glory example of unintended consequence of sanctions. “Maybe those 737 NG will be ‘unretired’”

            Reality: Many have been sold off. 😂 The charge of Lightweight Brigade continues. The gang that can’t….

            Denial …. Anger …. before finally reality hits and … acceptance.

          • SAS ordered A320neo (oh and also A321LR too) to replace their B737NG, *not A321ceo*. No idea why our poster continue to parrot B737NG vs A320ceo.

            Does BA has any jet that’s competitive with A321LR/XLR? 😝 Nope.

          • The 737-8 Max and the A320 Neo carry through the same fuselage and wings of their predecessors only the engines are changed .
            Thus the advantages of the Max 8 remain over the smaller A320 neo
            For the A321 if airlines want to fill the belly with extra fuel tanks they can get very commendable range
            SAS doesnt have a big widebody fleet, 8 A330s and 6 A350s
            So its definitely not the debt/leasing on those WB planes that sunk the airline into ‘bankruptcy adjacent’ status .

            probably that LCC Norwegian had more to do with it, surprise ….they have the Max in their fleet

          • See my post about the MAX’s runway performance, especially in hot and/or high airports (or those with shorter runways) below. 🤔

          • “Thus the advantages of the Max 8 remain over the smaller A320 neo”

            hehe.
            That was Boeing “truth” mostly.

            MAX got a plethora of little changes including a restyled tail section.
            It gained significantly in OEW.
            A320 significantly less so.
            Even the CFM engines for both are not really “equal” either.

            All those details condense into the sales picture:
            MAX lacks luster.

      • “I see the development 737-10 has arrived at Farnborough for the biennial air show.
        Is some big announcements in the offing ?”

        Yes:
        “Take a look at our MAX-10…it’s the last chance you’ll get before the program is cancelled” 😏

        • There’s nothing to ‘see’, it’s just a 737-9 with 2 extra seat rows.

          Should have been the max 9 upgraded to from the beginning.
          As that has no direct Airbus competitor, but the market looked to the larger size anyway.

          • “There’s nothing to ‘see’, it’s just a 737-9 with 2 extra seat rows.”

            Which might explain why BA has such a casual attitude to its possible cancellation: too much money and effort for a plane that only differs minimally from the next size down.
            BA could better have brought the MAX-9 to Farnborough — show customers what they can convert to in 2023.

          • “As that has *no direct Airbus competitor*, but the market looked to the larger size anyway.”

            Reality: How many MAX 9 orders? How many A321neo orders?? The MAX 9 is more like a “niche” product that few want.

            “So that could mean the Boeing in practice is used on slightly longer routes, maybe to Caribbean and northern South America”

            Yeah “exemplary” runway performance in hot and/or high airports! 😂

            From LNA:

            -> “But we’re hearing from airlines that runway performance [of the MAX] may be worse than the 737NG. The airplane is heavier but the wing is the same and the engine thrust is still somewhat of a mystery. CFM International, maker of the LEAP-1B that will power the MAX, lists thrust on its website of 20,000-28,000 lbs without identifying the sub-types and thrust to which the engines will be applied.

            These thrust ratings are similar to those now on the NG, rather than being increased to compensate for the increased weight.

            One airline tells us that runway performance for the -8 MAX and -9 MAX is longer than the -800 and -900. (The airline is not considering the -7 MAX and doesn’t have the -700.) This, the airline tells us, makes the airplanes problematic at some airports it serves.”

            Europe currently has a heat wave, I wonder if airlines that fly the MAX would have to remove passengers/luggage on board.

            PS: A news article quoted Bjorn Fehrm that using his model the A321 can carry 10 more passengers than the MAX!!

          • -> the A321 can carry 10 more passengers than the MAX!!

            Edit:
            than the **MAX 10**!!

          • the LNA reference to the A321 carrying ‘more’ was the ‘tight version’ with slimline lavatories – what ever that means
            the full quote was
            ” We could have used two over-wing exits and blocked the third door pair. It would have filled the cabin attendants seats at the third door in the floor plan. The A321neo then takes 16+180 seats = 196 seats. One can also use the same configuration for the MAX 10. Due to the service doors (fore and aft, on the right side) being of lower exit rating than Airbus doors, the cabin then can only be equipped with 189 seats.”

            Seems to be six seats difference in like for like. I imagine that wont make up for the heavier plane with the older wing design – smaller fuel load that ‘needs’ those extra fuselage tanks

            I think we can put to one side your takeoff distance ‘anecdotes’ as of course the little wing A320/321 is no champ their either- the A321 XLR needs entirely new flap arrangement over its siblings to make the grade

          • @DoU

            Nope. I was not referring to LNA. As I said in my post above, it’s a *news article*!

            Furthermore, it referred to A321’s *”baseline model”*.

            PS: AB’s own max passenger # for the A321neo is drum roll please …. 244, *14 more* than Boeing’s number.

          • That story didnt include all the details which their article was based on.

            You wouldnt want to be a spreader of falsehoods would you …wait a minute .
            You would give Richard III a good name rather than his common nickname

          • 196 – 189 = Six seats difference?? 😂
            Back to kindergarten there you go my dear.

            “the A321 XLR needs entirely new flap arrangement …”

            It’s continuous improvement or kaiser. Better performance, lighter and simpler. What’s not to like? 😳

            Except those of the light weight brigade!

            What have BA done to improve the MAX 9/10?? (Heavier) Landing gears so that the plane can takeoff? What if AB decides to back port the wing to A320/321neo? Would it be game over for the MAX?? 😂

          • ” … continuous improvement or kaiser”

            Edit
            … or *kaizen*.

        • “The A321 XLR needs entirely new flap arrangement over its siblings to make the grade”

          Wrong.

          IMU the XLR gets a _single slotted_ flaps redesign that has similar/improved performance to the current double slotted ( only A321 has those ) arrangement.
          A massive reduction in manufacturing and maintenance cost. Just think about the parts count reduction!

          • It is a new wing flaps design from the A321 ( as you alluded to)but it would be far from ‘kit bash job’ of the A320 flaps…or maybe it is ??

    • The NG wing is kit bash job on the classic.
      Same basic structure, beefed up more area
      reprofiling that did not reach fully into a supercritical profile.
      Though older A320 wing is probably more advanced.
      ( Airbus having better aerodynamics : this is a consistent feature afaics.)

      • I hear you and understand; was engaging in a bit of /sarc above that apparently went over one respondent’s head.

        That the 320-series will likely be composite-rewinged by
        late in this decade, I am serious about.

        • “That the 320-series will likely be composite-rewinged by
          late in this decade, I am serious about.”

          Here’s the thing, Bill;

          With one player in such a dominant position, there is no need to do a damn thing – save increasing output to get as many of your product out and as much money in the coffers, until the other guy makes a move.

          Why would you?

          Roughly,

          Boeing estimates the need for 30,000 NB aircraft in the next 20 years. The first 10k part of the race is done and Airbus holds a 2 to 1 lead.

          Indeed, if Airbus is successful in it’s ramp up to 75 A320Neo’s per month and 14 A220’s per month, you get over 1000 deliveries per year and in about 6 years – the backlog is done.

          The 20 year cycle divided into segments gives you 3 periods of 6.66 years each.

          Airbus has to be ready to counter anything BA does (and by all accounts it has the re-wing/A322 and the A220-500 waiting), but why mess with the market, when you don’t have to?

          Don’t you think Airbus likes the way things are? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. It’s Boeings move to make.

          On a side note: I think Airbus would be tickled pink if BA left the NB market alone and rolled out a MMA/767 replacement, for a couple of reasons:

          1) Spend resources in an area that isn’t as lucrative as what AB makes in the NB segment.
          2) Recent track history shows that Boeing loses money on it’s BCA programs. 4 out of the last 5 programs are in the red.
          3) Every troubled rollout increases customer confidence in Airbus and decreases it in Boeing.
          4) Let the guys who are currently in the drivers seat, make all the decisions for the next jet. Even Trans can’t stand them and thinks they are killing Boeing. The longer they stay, the better it is.

          • Airbust is way “ahead in the point”, as I think I mentioned a few years ago here, and that’s precisely the time to move from “check” (over BCA) to checkmate. The wing-thing is a relatively easy upgrade for a company that has not depleted its engineering and production talents. Resting on one’s laurels
            seldom works out well, IME.

            I’ll for now stick with my notion that AB will composite re-wing the 320 series by late in this decade, with 2027 as a fun n’ falsifiable date prediction. As a late, good friend
            used to say: “it’s easy, and it’s fun!”

          • > On a side note: I think Airbus would be tickled pink if BA left the NB market alone and rolled out a MMA/767 replacement, for a couple of reasons: …

            agreed on all that, including the reasons, but
            I still contend that an *executable* H2H competitor for the A321 would be BCA’s best move for now- if they make one, which I’m *very doubtful* about. Lots smoke and mirrors around- from BCA and many, many others.

            Creating The Fog of War must be just exhausting..

            😉

          • ‘Airbus is way “ahead in the point”, as I think I mentioned a few years ago here, and that’s precisely the time to move from “check” (over BCA) to checkmate.’

            (I’m going to apologize in advance, for my long winded posts. I feel I need to support my points of view adequately, or else Bryce et al. will tear them apart…) 🙂

            Let’s look at things from the 20,000 ft view.

            The commercial aircraft industry is characterized by the OEM’s putting out planes with small, incremental changes. No OEM is going to put out a plane that saves 50% in fuel costs, costs 25% less in maintenance and is 40% cheaper in price.

            We also assume that

            1) Boeing is too big to fail
            2) We ignore one time events (groundings, crashes, prod holds etc)
            3) Airbus likes the way things are, mostly driven by the NB segment
            4) China isn’t quite part of the game, yet (OEM)

            IMO, there is no ‘checkmate’.

            What’s the worst thing that could happen in the game, for Airbus?

            A resurgent, well financed, healthy, well-led Boeing – with a great product line. Yes?

            BA limping along like a wounded animal, behind in the race, financially shattered, with weak products that are having trouble getting certified, led by the same gang that put them there in the first place (the GE crew)…

            …and this is a really, really good situation for them. It’s not perfect, nothing ever is, but it’s pretty darn good.

            Agreed so far?

            So what are the ways that change things at Boeing, to make them that feared competitor, once again?

            Boeing needs some $50 billion to wipe the debt clean, get the Max 7 & 10 certified, get the 787 delivered, get the 777X certified and delivered – which barring an asset sale, huge debt increase or sales of some 3-4000 aircraft at Farnborough…isn’t happening.

            That also leaves the current crop of leaders in charge and we know what they’ll do, once they get their hands on some money.

            How else could they get there?

            Well…Chapter 11 would do it, wouldn’t it? Put the debtors in charge, give the company a fresh start and CLEAN OUT THE TRASH, in the c-suite. If they would put engineering talent in the hot seat and get back to their old ways, it would probably be the way to go. They might even be able to lure some talent away from Airbus, if they really meant it.

            I think the gang at Airbus know this. They want Boeing exactly as they are, with the same team in place, the same weak products. You leave them enough space to live, but not to thrive. If you trounce them too hard, you risk a phoenix rising from the ashes.

            You let Boeing make the next move. If they don’t do anything, for the next 5 years, you don’t. You don’t have to. Boeing is doing a great job with it’s self inflicted wounds, as it is.

            “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

            Just let them be. Let Calhoun go out and keep explaining and blaming the mess on everyone and everything. Let them keep worrying about share price, dividends and buybacks. Let him keep promising about new products and production techniques that never materialize. Let them keep bidding and winning on sucker contracts that they lose money on.

            Be ready to go – but don’t do anything that jeopardizes a change at Boeing. If it happen, it happens – but don’t be the catalyst.

          • @ Frank
            I wouldn’t dream of tearing any of your posts apart: you’re one of the most cogent commenters here.

            I agree with you that Chapter 11 is starting to look inevitable for BA.
            I don’t necessarily agree that it will then rise from the ashes as a single company — a split-up is a considerable possibility. You pointed out recently that BA is #5 in a ranking of US defense companies, so its defense division can easily be acquired by one of its US competitors. Space can go to Musk or Bezos. And Commercial can go to Lockheed Martin (which used to manufacture commercial aircraft). Contrary to common belief, I doubt that there’s much synergy between the various divisions.

      • I think we can put to one side the claim the NG wing was a ‘kit bash’, its just a smear from those who dont know better.
        ‘The Supercritical Airfoil’
        https://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/about/Organizations/Technology/Facts/TF-2004-13-DFRC.html
        As is typical, NASA doesnt credit the British VC10 as the first commercial wing with modern supercritical aspects in service in early 60s

        They are still constrained – like Airbus – on the Gate size and thus span
        The facts show 737 NG details
        Wings: New airfoil section, 25% increase in area, 107″ semi-span increase, 17″ chord increase, raked wing-tip, larger inspar wingbox with machined ribs.
        Fuel Tanks: Main tanks smaller at 3900kg each but centre tank much larger giving total fuel capacity of 20,800kg. (compared to 16,200kg on classics).

        If it was such a ‘kit bash’ job why has A320 continued the same wing from the late 1970s without doing an upgrade
        The A321XLR has the ‘kit work’ with those new flaps to make the runway performance acceptable, no in wing fuel increase but the ‘novel’ belly tank instead.

        • When you see the NEO family outselling the MAX family by such a huge margin, it must be very comforting to indulge in these wing difference soliloquies…

          • Cheaper, as its a smaller plane for A320 , less passengers less revenue is usually the rule of thumb.
            The reason I raise these things is that misinformation from some is rife

            Once it was Airbus bribery which made the difference , but (hopefully) that doesnt happen ( so blatantly) anymore.

        • That NASA Brit essentially “reinvented” a couple of inventions.
          Supercritical airfoil ( a US tag ) were researched in Germany ~~WWII, post WWII German aerodynamicist transferrred to Britain and joined up with the aero folks there. result a line of profiles with much improved transsonic performance.
          ( Same for the “Coke Bottle” area rule. in different words a German WWII research finding. )

          Boeing once tried to litigate for use of supercritical profiles by ?Airbus? but failed : a rich fount of non US prior art.

  40. “Canada picks Airbus for multirole tanker transport requirement”

    “Canadian defence minister Anita Anand revealed on 14 July that the Department of National Defence (DND) on 14 July has finalised a contract to buy and convert a pair of Airbus A330-200 passenger aircraft into multirole tanker transport (MRTT) platforms, as an initial step in the Strategic Tanker Transport Capability (STTC) programme for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF).

    “A $102 million contract to buy the two A330-200s was awarded to International Airfinance Corporation. After their delivery in Q4 2023, they may be placed into early service in passenger/cargo roles before being converted to the MRTT role.

    “Airbus competed against Boeing (with the KC-46A Pegasus) to meet the six-aircraft STTC requirement.

    “The two A330-200s ‘represent an important first step in eventually replacing the capability currently provided by the CC-150 Polaris fleet’, Anand announced in a statement.”

    https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/mil-log/canada-picks-airbus-for-multirole-tanker-transport-requirement/

    • Converting young 330-200’s seems a reasonable efficient approach.

      The always available 30t lower deck standard pallet capacity + 250 seat capacity on top of the tanker capability, global range and spares/MRO/crew infrastructure make it the favorite with many air forces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330_MRTT#Operators

      The Canadians will be able to preserve expensive C17 operations for real heavy / outsize missions.

      • The fact that the MRRT program is done as a conversion of existing new or secondhand aircraft is a brilliant and efficient strategy.

        • Canada’s STTC requires the aircraft to be able to *detect, avoid and defect AAM/SAM(s).

          Secret sauce?? Proof of AB’s capability. The MRTT is largely a proven platform. Canada is smart to avoid US’s infamous decade-long debacle.

  41. > SAS itself ordered A320/321neo and retires its B737NG. The airline *did NOT order any MAX*. <

    Funny to watch the respondent twist himself up into knots, trying to explain this away..

    • From the LNA article of SAS’s unit fuel consumption, a couple comments are noteworthy:

      -> Looking at the number of digits/ accuracy and the usual statistical margin of the numbers Scott quoted, this conclusion is a total red herring

      -> SAS Cargo has no freighter aircraft. The freight is delivered on passenger aircraft. Therefore the figures above are twisted against an aircraft with more cargo on board.

      While our poster, as usual, jumped on a single piece of info and parroted repeatedly.

  42. Bryce said: @ Bill7
    “There’s a distinct coolness at AB when it comes to Michael O’Leary..”

    Thanks for that info, Bryce. I think Thomas Mann had a good quote about cleverness’s longer-term
    effects.

    • “There’s a distinct coolness at AB when it comes to Michael O’Leary..”

      I’m not so sure that is true, and if it is I bet it is a sham. I bet AB always knew they were very unlikely to get the sale. But it is in their interest to, pickup the phone and act as a spoiler.

      For AB it is a win-win. If the win the sale, well wow great, they break into a new airline probably for decades. If they loose the sale but help Ryan Air put the screws to Boeing, that is millions less revenue for Boeing to use against them on future programs.

      Same with any new tanker competition. If the Air Force has a competition AB will enter if only to prevent Boeing from winning high margins. And parenthetically that is why the Air Force will likely not have a competition. There is a national goal to help Boeing with a lucrative contract, having a competition works against that.

      • Thanks for this useful comment. There is quite a bit of useful context to be found in Scott H’s book ‘Air Wars’ on the AB – Boeing dynamic. On the other hand, I just finished
        carefully re-reading its Ch.23 ‘The Alphabet Airplane’ , and can still make no sense
        of Boeing’s recent “strategy” regarding their next aircraft- if there is one (strategy, or aircraft).

        YMMV.

        • jbeeko:

          My take is Airbus will never deliver at O’Leary price point, even Boeing is no longer doing so. I have no issue with either one, O Leary thinks he can wait it out and so does Boeing, shades of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly!

          KC-Y: Keep in mind that this is an LM project not an Airbus and you add another layer of cost into a competition and I believe as most who look closely at this, the USAF will Extend (pun intended) the current KC-X contract. Ergo no bidding.

          • Its congress who decides if there will be an open competition to spend ‘its money’ , not the USAF. If it was purely and AF decision they would have bought leased tankers 20 years back.
            Likely KC-46 will get some extra builds but the lions share to LMXT – if there was a fair competition

          • The Congress or more appropriately the congressmen use other’s money to buy votes for themselves. That’s how the empire is run.

          • That really was a useful column, 5 1/2 years later, for present-day context- including the comments there.
            Note the ones who got it more-or-less right, v.
            those who didn’t: the ones who didn’t were
            wordier- almost without exception- and some of the latter are still Explaining to this day..

            Thanks again for the link.

            #explainingisLosing

          • @Bill & Pedro

            Some food for thought:

            “Muilenburg also said on the January earnings call Boeing sees “no scenario” under which production will go below the current 12.”

            ***This didn’t age well***

            From the Seattle Times article referenced:

            “He said Boeing will likely have to develop a new “middle-of-the-market” (MOM) twin-aisle jet — sized between the largest 737 and the smallest 787 — and also develop a larger 737, the MAX 10, to stall the runaway sales of the Airbus A321neo.

            The problem is, Boeing won’t have the money to pour into a MOM development project until early next decade, Aboulafia said. All of Boeing’s research and development money is already earmarked through 2019 for its 737 MAX, 787-10 and 777X projects.”

            ***If they didn’t have the money in 2017, they have it now?***

            “Always fluent and funny in his exposition, Aboulafia came up with a novel metaphor for Boeing’s pushing out nearly $30 billion in 787 production costs to be paid back from future revenue.

            “It’s like, ‘We can’t save the patient, but we can put his head in a jar and hope future generations can revive him,’ ” Aboulafia said.

            In the tough years ahead, he sees Boeing depending heavily on increased 737 production and further cost-squeezing.”

            ***The man has a crystal ball***

            The MAX 7 isn’t selling.
            The Max 9 is outsold 4 or 5 to 1 by the 321neo.
            The MAX 200 is a niche airplane.
            The MAX 10 won’t recover market share.

            ***Scott knew what he was talking about. It still holds today***

            From the comment section:

            “Now Boeing are clever narrowbody builders, the 737 NG and its siblings the MAX’es are being built cheaper than Airbus ever could achieve with their A32X Series aircraft. So I am genuinely at a loss to figure out which of A or B has the biggest “market share” if measured in the referred new metric ?”

            ***You get what you pay for…***

            Boeing needs to get off the ‘shareholder value’ bandwagon for a few years, and come up with TWO new aircraft using that buyback and dividend money for R+D for a change, instead of proffering poverty pleas. It will seem to be the wrong time, but that slack period in demand is exactly the right time. Boeing must me ready for the next demand cycle with new models to offer.

            ***This guy was right on. Trans was on it, too***

            Gotta go walk the dog, but imma rea the rest of the comments later…

  43. DoU said “..Thus the advantages of the Max 8 remain over the smaller A320 neo..”

    1) Have those purported advantages been spelled out?
    2) Odd that that commenter never compares like-for -like..

    AB’s sales figures and backlog look quite good to me,
    and that’s *before* they re-wing the 32x series.. and they don’t have to give ’em away, unlike the Other Guys.

    Looking forward to that commenter’s late-July analyses and updates.

    • How can you compare ‘like for like’ when in standard configuration the Max 8 has 12 more seats than the A320…no doubt the ‘smaller cheaper’ plane is a
      major reason for its sales success. It has other advantages of course , but airlines are a business carrying passengers ( and some cargo) so the cost of the plane does come into it.
      Your comment shows you lack the basic understandings to raise these issues. feel free to update your knowledge with LNA search functions

      Its not till you get to the Max 10 and A321 that its the closest ‘like for like’ with a small advantage for Airbus is pass numbers

      • No, Dukie: you are very careful to *avoid* like-for-like comparisons between AB and BA aircraft. The market tells the tale.. looking forward to your post-Farnborough analysis, by the way.

        > Your comment shows you lack the basic understandings to raise these issues. <

        Mmm.

  44. And going into a weekend with no new Pontificate or other open subject (with all due respect to Bjorn and a very narrow comment area)

    This gives some insight into what is going on though I find it a bit odd and possibly not a good translation of Air Morocco Intent.

    https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/03/347801/royal-air-maroc-to-acquire-new-planes

    A couple MAX get taken up by Air Iceland and the rest cancelled and a new bid is taken up. Assessment is AM is leveraging the situation (good for them) to get a better deal. Due to the delay they can cancel and get their money back.

    They also have taken to the 787 though that is not a given for a single aisle as there is no cross relevance. Also no benefit of cockpit commonality.

    Clearly they could shift as they are mostly -800 variants but also clearly availability plays a part.

  45. Bryce said, on July 15, 2022:
    “I like Mahler…but I prefer Bruckner and Wagner 👍
    For me, Rachmaninov is king”

    Bruckner I’m interested in, and have only one recording:
    the Seventh, conducted by Rosbaud. One has to dive fully in with him though, and I haven’t yet.
    Wagner makes me almost literally seasick (those shifting tone-centers), and worse; I can hear the mastery, but don’t go there. No Rach for me. 😉

    • Adding: if you ever watch ‘Barfly’ (written by C. Bukowski, starring Mickey Rourke and Faye (ooh-la-la!)
      Dunaway, 1987), the Andante Moderato movement from M6 is used very memorably in several spots. A good, bad movie too, I think. 😉

    • I posted a reply to you, which mysteriously got moved down below…

  46. Polish Carrier LOT Favors Airbus A220s in Order Contest

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/polish-carrier-lot-said-to-favor-airbus-a220s-in-order-contest

    Airline is looking to swap out its aging Embraer planes
    LOT has historically been a committed Boeing customer

    ‘LOT Polish Airlines SA is close to ordering as many as 60 Airbus SE A220 jets as it looks to swap out its aging Embraer SA planes, according to people familiar with the matter.’

    I guess they like it, too…

    (Could this be the airshow of the A220?)

    • One way or another, I suspect it will be an airshow to remember…😏

    • I wonder if what we are seeing is a result of all of Airbus’s work getting the A220 build cost down and potential build rate up. They may be at a point were they are confident enough of lower future costs and their ability to execute they can reflect that in selling price and build slots.

      If so it may be the start of a good run for the A220.

      • Probably what you’re saying and: 2) replacement cycle, 3) not too much competition in the 100 seat sector if they are getting the -100, and 4) passengers are pleased with Air Baltic’s -300.

      • @jbeeko

        One thing lost in the shuffle, is that the A220 (if ordered) is going to replace Embraer jets (again).

        The E2 line is on life support. They don’t even enter our minds, when we talk about a sales competition to renew a fleet type, even if they are the incumbent.

        Orphans…

        • I hope fortunes improve for Embraer — I’d hate to see them disappear from the scene.
          The E-jets at KLM Cityhopper are very popular, and it’s great that the Dutch Air Force recently ordered 6 KC390s (another really nice plane) to replace their ancient C-130s.
          Perhaps they can make a success of the Eve EVToL concept.

          It surprises me that Embraer hasn’t entered into some sort of JV with COMAC, which would be beneficial to both sides (huge Chinese market for Embraer; engineering know-how / experience and high-quality production lines for COMAC).

        • I sometime wonder why the E2-190 is not doing better. Just under 100 seats so no need for a third flight attendant and easier to fill in smaller markets.

          Could it be that the operational flexibility of the A220 trumps the operating costs? Or could it be that the multiple certification weights of the A220 let airlines change the A220 capacity on the fly giving lower landing fees and other costs where full capability is not needed?

          • The E2-190 has a higher OEW than the A220-100, on a per pax basis (max pax), 640 lbs vs 575 lbs. The A220-300 gets down to 510 lbs, while the E2-195 is at 540 lbs.

            They’re just lighter aircraft.

            At the end of the day, it’s also a 2×2 seating regional jet, with 2,850NM range. The A220-100 is viewed as a mainline jet, with almost 3,500NM range. The -300 flies even further, at 36ooNM while the E2-195 flies even less at 2,650. Almost 1,000nm less.

            Embraer made a ‘tweener.

        • And for the first half of 2022 net orders of the A220 are 64% of those for the 737. And if those LOT orders come through the A220 may have outsold the the 737 in 2022 154 to 152. Let thank sink in.

          Of course that will not happen, there will be some orders for the 737 as well. But still that fact that this is even close is amazing to me.

          • If the Chinese place a large A220 order soon — as is currently being rumored — then the A220 probably *will* outsell the 737 in 2022.

            Why is it amazing to you?
            The 737 has become an unloved program — most orders placed since re-cert have been from opportunistic bargain hunters. If DL does place an order, it will entail spectacular pricing from an OEM desperate to make some headliner sales.

    • Could this airline, Boeing’s loyal customer, be what Leeham has been referring to for some time?

      • I think you might have a point.
        Scott gave us hints some time ago about another defection in Europe…

        • I’m thinking this is the defecting CIA. Will Scott confirm this before the official announcement?

      • Can’t be LOT, must be another Airline since:

        1) Is European
        2) Is not an LCC
        3) Operates only Boeings.

        So another huge order on the way

        • Thank you, Scott! So we will probably also see this company place an order for the A320neo family?

  47. Not even Rach second symphony, third movement? It’s actually somewhat Mahler-like here and there. Note the endlessly long lines.
    Here’s a stunning performance – the third movement starts at 31m 32s.

    https://youtu.be/SvuitFzDxDg

    Let’s not over-indulge: better not incur The Wrath of Scott for drifting off topic.

    • I will listen to the Rach 2 if and when my very slow and erratic ISP (USA! USA! USA!) cooperates, and will not blather
      about music (much) more. I like hearing others’ takes
      on the stuff, though, outside music forums (insular, they are).

  48. I generally agree w/ Frank’s post just above (I cannot reply inline at this time), though I’ll still go with the notion that there’s something bigger than the AB / BA binary faux-binary
    choice going on. Chapter 11 would be attractive, OTOH, to an large, well-connected entity like BCA: a chance to shed pensions and *much more society-benefiting unpleasantness* in the name of “restructuring” and “competitiveness”, yadda-yadda..

    But yes, a weak BCA does benefit Airbus- no doubt- if that’s all that’s going on. I’ve mentioned some possible alternative framing of recent events before.

    ERoEI still sticks in my mind, though, despite the pervasive corporatist “the future’s so bright we gotta wear shades!” PR with which we’re daily bludgeoned..

  49. Delta is continuing its habit of buying secondhand 737s here and there: in this case, it’s another four 737-900ERs, bringing the total to 159 (of which 29 are secondhand).

    Virtually the same range as the MAX-10, a lot cheaper, and it’s actually certified and available (as opposed to being used as a poker chip in a standoff with Congress). Better reputation / build quality also. 20 fewer seats, but that only matters for load factors above 88%.

    https://airwaysmag.com/delta-orders-b737-900er-a330neo/

    • A Max 9 or 900ER has only 12 less seats ( 2 rows) in a standard configuration than the proposed max 10.
      this is confirmed by looking at Delta seat plans for its various types

      20 seats is just a flight of fancy-

      Your link also says its expected to order 100 Max 10s

      • And where can we find a Delta seat map for thw MAX-10, seeing as the airline doesn’t fly this type?

        • 182 seats ONLY

          20 first, 33 economy+ and 129 economy
          while DAL’s A321neo can seat up to 194 passengers

      • There’s a difference between a low flyover and a super-steep climbout: the former is a (nominally) stable maneuvre and the latter is not.

        If that thing stalls, it will be the end of Boeing…and all for the sake of some tacky showmanship.
        Better leave acrobatics to the Red Arrows.

        • I agree that it’s more-or-less SOP at airshows,
          but it comes across as impotent breast-beating by a company that cannot deliver a reliable, certified
          aircraft:

          737-7
          737-10
          787
          777-X

          None are deliverable products.

      • Intertesting to see false allegations brought up again and again … ad nauseam by persons that seem unable to gain in knowledge.

        The initial plan for that flight show would have been “ok”. The actually flown path was “verboten”.
        “Those pilot hindering” prtotections designed into the Airbus FBW enabled a (reasonably) benign outcome.

  50. With reference to the geopolitical aspects of the current LNA article, it’s interesting to note that it’s not just China that’s pushing back against the US:

    “MBS hits back at Biden after the President confronts Saudi prince about Khashoggi”

    Importantly, as regards oil:
    “But White House officials say the President won’t be returning to Washington on Saturday with explicit oil production increases. The expectation is that there will be increases in the months ahead — done within the context of increased output levels in the OPEC+ cartel laid out at its August meeting.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/16/middleeast/biden-mbs-khashoggi-abu-akleh-intl/index.html

    Also:
    “Saudi Arabia’s ties to the U.S. and China are not mutually exclusive, minister says”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/16/saudi-arabias-ties-to-the-us-and-china-are-not-mutually-exclusive-al-jubeir.html

    *********

    Time to realize that the world order has changed.

    • Yes, that’s what’s called realism.
      The BA “back office” prefers to deride COMAC rather than to acknowledge the inevitable. Pure denial at the thought of losing one’s lunch.
      As if that will help.

      • That grouping is not big on realism, I think. Then there’s the blithe and supercilious tone.. trying to
        convince *themselves*, it seems to me.

    • We will be going from a duopoly to a duopoly, with 70 percent market share by Airbus while Boeing and Comac shares the rest.

  51. Dominic Gates, pre-Farnborough:

    “..More significantly, after a couple of years with international air travel severely constricted and very few large passenger jet deliveries, Airbus and Boeing have been courting orders for widebody passenger planes.

    According to a person with knowledge of the deals, details of which are closely held, Airbus will announce an order for up to 30 of its widebody A330neos from Malaysia Airlines, beating out the 787s offered by Boeing.

    If Boeing can also grab some widebody sales wins, confidence will grow that the pandemic-induced industry slump is beginning to end.

    Boeing has more to prove: Its leadership must convince the world that the company is emerging from the chaos of recent safety, quality, regulatory and financial troubles and that some stability is in sight.

    At a press roundtable in central London on the eve of the air show, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal will make the case. With major obstacles standing in Boeing’s way, he has a hard sell.
    Approval by the Federal Aviation Administration for Boeing to resume deliveries of the 787 — largely halted due to manufacturing defects since fall 2020 — is unlikely to come during the air Show.

    An audit of 787 production announced last month by the Department of Transportation inspector general could add delay. Regulatory approval isn’t expected until next month at the earliest.

    In addition, hope has ebbed that China will soon start taking deliveries of the MAX and order new planes as it begins to open up after a severe lockdown.

    This month China favored Airbus with a pre-show commitment to buy 292 of its airplanes — while an editorial on a state-run website chided the U.S. and made plain this was a deliberate geopolitical snub of Boeing..”

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/at-the-farnborough-air-show-boeing-aims-for-stability-in-an-aviation-recovery-and-dreams-of-flying-taxis/

    • Indeed, it looks like the DOT audit is going to delay the party further — as was to be expected.
      There’ll probably be a similar delaying effect on the MAX-7 AND -10 certification efforts.

      • I don’t expect too much to come from the “audit”, myself, but I do hope that Boeing getting the spotlight encourages them to produce safe, FOD-free planes. A little humility wouldn’t hurt them, either.

        I wonder what the airline execs say amongst themselves WRT that company.

      • Boeing: “777X high-AoA take offs! …and Autonomous Flying Taxis, too!” [which don’t, and won’t]. No deliverable stuff, though. “Now please pre-order our uncertified and/or undeliverable aircraft!”

        I am definitely sold..

  52. Interesting to see what’s new in the risks disclosure in BA’s new quarterly filing after Calhoun’s interview.
    How many 737 MAX 10 are made/in the production line? How much will go down the drain if there’s no waiver??

    • Boeing will almost certainly get an exemption for the 737MAX10, as their production processes and craft ossify a still further: “It’s Chinatown, Jake.”
      Will said exemption benefit or harm them is an open question.

      Interesting stuff posted by others on the up-to-date Airbus A220, BTW.

    • Its just a simple fuselage stretch of the existing production Max 9 and a new undercarriage arrangement- but still based on the existing mechanicals.
      Apart from the existing flying development aircraft ( or two) there are no ‘pre builds’ for those reasons

      • Maybe the likely Boeing 737MAX™10 certification/exemption will partly make up for all those stored 737MAXes that China is not presently accepting.. quite a few, IIRC. See the recent Seattle Times article linked above, if you wish.

        Will certification of the 737MAX-10 benefit Boeing in anything other than the short term? That company itself is saying there is no NBA/NSA/NLT/NMA/Nxx coming any time soon.

      • “Its just a simple fuselage stretch of the existing production Max 9 and a new undercarriage arrangement– but still based on the existing mechanicals.”

        The trailing link design doubles the loading on the oleo leg. Add the linkage that takes the counter force.

        I would like to see some numbers how that impacts weight for the MLG assembly.

        • Thanks for that correction and additional info on the MAX-10 undercarriage.

        • Doesnt sound like its extra ‘loading’ at all, the landing gear is lengthened by 9in, fitting it inside the existing wheel wells means the novel approach was required after lift-off
          ‘The engineering team ended up adding a spring-loaded lever to extend the telescoping landing gear, plus a “shrink link” mechanism that pulls the extension inward when it needs to be folded back up. And to power the movement, the engineers took advantage of a retraction actuator that was already in the design for the other members of the 737 MAX family.’
          https://www.geekwire.com/2018/boeing-737-max-10-landing-gear/

          One of the aims was to maintain the pilot commonality without a special Max 10 extra gentle take-off compared to Max 9

    • -> In May 2021, the FAA told BA that, realistically, it would not certify the 777X until mid- to late 2023.

      Did BA disclose this in a timely manner??

  53. Frank said, on July 16, 2022:

    “Hey Bill,
    Don’t believe the Q-anon style hype. It’s all about the oil and nat gas deposits in Ukraine i.e. money.
    It’s also about Putin not having to pay billions to Ukraine to ship gas through their territory, to Europe.”

    Frank, I hope you will allow me to keep my own counsel on these and other matters. Thank you.

    • Ukraine had “friends pricing” for their own gas use.
      They got judicious amounts of money for transit and maintenance.
      Nonetheless they found it necessary to siphon off even more gas.
      They did not execute proper maintenance.
      They did not pay their gas bills.
      Guess how people like J.Timoshenko got stinking rich 🙂

      “Fuck the EU” Victoria Nuland and the Biden family were busy in Ukraine long before the Maidan synthetic coup.

      • Timoshenko, right. Biden, huh?

        You know what’s funny? And after this I’m going to leave it alone – is that while all this deflection goes on, the real individuals, the ones who go to prison and the actual links that come out in a court of law…are ignored.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych#Interpol

        In December 2004 Yanukovych and his Party of Regions hired American political consultant Paul Manafort as an adviser. He continued to serve in that role through the February 2010 Ukrainian presidential election,[338][284][339] even as the US government opposed Yanukovych.[340] Manafort’s task was to rehabilitate Yanukovych’s political career in the aftermath of the Orange Revolution.[341][64][342] According the Party of Regions’ accounting book (Ukrainian: “амбарну книга”), Paul Manafort, who after the Orange Revolution provided strong support to Yanukovych, received funds from the Party of Regions via the Belize based Neocom Systems Limited’s account at the Kyrgyzstan based Asia Universal Bank (AUB) on 14 October 2009.[343][344][345]

        Manafort hired the public relations firm Edelman to lift Yanukovych’s public image. However, Manafort’s friends have said that Yanukovych “stopped listening” to him after he became president in 2010; Manafort warned him of the consequences of “extreme” political measures.[citation needed]

        Manafort would later go on to serve as campaign chairman for Donald Trump in 2016.[346] The American FBI began a criminal investigation into Manafort’s business dealings while he was lobbying for Yanukovych. American Federal prosecutors alleged that between 2010 and 2014 Manafort was paid more than $60 million by Ukrainian sponsors, including Rinat Akhmetov, believed to be the richest man in Ukraine.[347]

        In January 2019, Manafort resigned from the Connecticut bar.[348]

        In January 2019, Paul Manafort’s lawyers submitted a filing to the court, in response to the Robert Mueller Special Counsel’s accusation that Manafort had lied to investigators while supposedly co-operating with the investigation. Through an error in redacting, the document accidentally revealed that while Manafort was Donald Trump’s campaign chairman, Manafort met with Konstantin Kilimnik, gave Kilimnik polling data related to Donald Trump’s 2016 United States Presidential campaign, and discussed a Ukraine-Russia peace plan for the Russo-Ukrainian War with Kilimnik. As a Russian Main Intelligence Directorate GRU agent, Konstantin Kilimnik is a known member of Russia’s intelligence community.[187][b] Although most of the polling data was reportedly public, some was private Trump campaign polling data managed by Brad Parscale.[190][191][c] Manafort asked Kilimnik to pass the data to Ukrainians Serhiy Lyovochkin and Rinat Akhmetov.

        ***Funny how it has Manafort and Trump connections all over it, but hey – let’s put it on Biden! lol***

        Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Biden is no angel either – but this connection is on the other side of the fence. But I guess I am just some MSM believer, communist loving, sheeple – that has been duped by everyone.

      • > “Fuck the EU” Victoria Nuland and the Biden family were busy in Ukraine long before the Maidan synthetic coup. <

        Agreed- and some of us were aware of that at the time.

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