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By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 31, 2022, © Leeham News: China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China was the conclusion of an analysis by LNA in July 2021. A trade expert last week agreed. Airbus and China’s COMAC won’t be able to fill the future demand forecast for China.

Michael McAdoo, Partner & Director, Global Trade and Investment of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in Montreal and a former strategic chief of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft, told LNA in an interview last week that China needs the Boeing 737 MAX and widebody airplanes to meet demand in the near-to-medium term.

It will be long-term before China’s commercial aviation industry will be competitive with airplane designs and production.

Summary

Forecasts for China’s demand for jet aircraft are consistent between Airbus and Boeing. But COMAC, which is the leader of China’s burgeoning commercial aviation industry, is significantly higher in its forecast. The independent Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) is significantly lower.

• Boeing forecasts that China needs 8,485 new jets through 2041.
• Airbus forecasts 8,420 new aircraft will be needed through 2041.
• COMAC forecasts China will need 9,084 aircraft through 2040.
• JADC is more conservative, forecasting a requirement for 6,172 new jets in China through 2041.

Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook.

China will account for 21% of the world’s new aircraft deliveries through 2041, Boeing says.