Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
- Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news June 11, 2025
- P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane June 11, 2025
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
Five reasons for Airbus to proceed with the A320 NEO
Richard Aboulafia, aerospace consultant with The Teal Group, published his monthly two-page newsletter in which he gives five reasons why Airbus should proceed with the A320 New Engine Option (NEO). The newsletter may be downloaded here.
We disagree with one of his conclusions, and that is Delta Air Lines continues to be predisposed toward Boeing. This was certainly true under the previous management (the pre-bankruptcy one) and stems from an exclusive supplier agreement between Delta and Boeing signed c. 1996 and good for 20 years. Boeing agreed not to enforce the contract as a concession to the European Union for approval the following year to merge with McDonnell Douglas, but Delta only ordered Boeing aircraft anyway.
Snapshot: EADS press conference, mainly on Tanker and USAF faux pas
We attended a press conference today in Washington (DC) with Sean O’Keefe, CEO of EADS North America, that covered a variety of issues but focused mainly on the KC-X tanker competition and most particularly the news last week that the USAF had sent proprietary information about the Boeing and EADS tanker bids to the wrong company.
First, O’Keefe remains in the neck collar from his near-fatal airplane accident in Alaska August 9 in which former Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and three others were killed. Sean and his teenage son, Kevin, were about five survivors. O’Keefe’s spirits are good and he expressed that the random nature of those killed and who survived is proof that divine intervention is “real.”
Having interviewed O’Keefe on previous occasions, we are gratified to see his recovery progressing and him back at work.
Here is a quick snaphshot of O’Keefe’s remarks:
How many ways can the USAF screw up KC-X?
Defense News has this story about the USAF sending Boeing and EADS proprietary information about each company’s bids to the other by mistake.
How else can the government screw this competition up?
If you read the post carefully, the USAF also acknowledges for the first time what we have been saying for quite a while: the award will slip to early next year.
Update: It gets worse. Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times said the information including pricing data from each company, which is key in what is a price shoot-out competition.
This could have serious ramifications.
54 failures on QF A380
The Associated Press, via this story in The Seattle Times, details the in-flight emergency of the Qantas A380 after the No. 2 engine suffered an uncontained failure.
The account is very dramatic, particularly when the as-yet untold story of the Boeing 787 ZA002 is considered.
Qantas recorded 54 failures, including the near-deployment of the Ram Air Turbine (RAT) that does so only when there is a major system failure. The RAT, as we know, deployed on the 787.
737RE? Forgettaboutit
In what is, perhaps, the clearest signal Boeing isn’t going to re-engine the 737, and that it will take on the Airbus A320NEO head-on with an upgraded model, take a look at the last line of the AerCap press release announcing the signing of a letter of intent to order the 737-800–the first new-airplane order from Boeing from this previously all-Airbus new order customer:
Tanker shortage cancels Red Flag exercise
Update, Nov. 17: EADS now is predicting the tanker contract award will slip to next year. This is entirely consistent with what we have been hearing (first quarter) and what we understand Boeing believes as well.
Original Post:
A shortage of KC-135 refueling tankers, because of the high demand in Afghanistan and Iraq, forced the Air Force to cancel Red Flag, an annual exercise.
The Army Times first reported this event November 9. Strategy Page has an analysis about the aging tanker issue.
Strategy Page has a couple of obvious errors in its analysis, but the overarching point is well taken.
This illustrates the need for aerial tankers and how warfighting capability can be affected by a shortage of tankers. While the exercise was not canceled due to aging tankers, but rather competing interests, the point is nonetheless made.
Updates on Airbus, Boeing events
Aviation Week has this long and detailed story about the Airbus A380/Qantas engine failure.
Qantas A380s remain grounded indefinitely.
KING 5 (NBC, Seattle) has this account of the Boeing 787 fire.
KIRO TV (CBS, Seattle) has this item about the FAA and the 787’s certification tests.
Flightglobal reports an FAA pilot was at the controls when the 787 fire broke out.
Airbus has its challenges, too
While headlines have understandably been focused on Boeing this week, Airbus has its problems, too. The Qantas A380 Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine uncontained failure continues to generate news stories. The QF 32 flight details still are emerging, and one–in an email we received today–gives a good example of “cascading failures” that can happen in an emergency.
Recall that the 787 ZA002 had a series of cascading failures following the fire in the electronics bay, the details of which have yet to be learned beyond some generalities. Here’s what we learned about the cascading failures associated with QF 32:
Another KC-X deadline passes
Today was supposed to be the day the KC-X contract was to get its go-ahead, but as has so often been the case, another deadline has come and gone.
The USAF suggests it will be done this fall, which is through December 20. We’ve previously written we believe the award will slip to the first quarter.
Meantime, here is an interesting story on the KC-X saga. Hat-tip to Flightglobal’s Steve Trimble for spotting this one.
BOC Aviation orders A320s, touts ‘investment value’
Here is a story we did last week for Commercial Aviation Online:
BOC Aviation and Airbus announced 3 November an order for 30 A320s, with the companies touting the “investment value” and residual value in a press release detailing the orders.
“The announcement from BOC Aviation is another vote of confidence in the long-term appeal of the A320 Family. It works well for the financial community based on its wide operator base, proven operating economics and strong residual values,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers, Airbus, is the press release.
“A320 Family aircraft are a good fit as they have proven economics and meet both our investment targets and our customers’ operating goals,” said BOC Aviation CEO Robert Martin in the press release.
The residual value of the A320 family has come under doubts from lessors, appraisers, airlines and financiers in response to the possibility that Airbus will proceed with the New Engine Option for the A320. Some lessors, notably AerCap and Aviation Capital Group, have publicly expressed concerns about the residual value impact of the A320 NEO on the A320 current generation (A320CG); AerCap early this year said it would not order more A320s until Airbus made a decision on NEO. AerCap has been an exclusive Airbus customer when it comes to new airplane orders.