Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing selects KC-767 for Tanker
Boeing, as expected, announced that it will offer the KC-767 to the US Air Force for the KC-X aerial refueling tanker competition.
The press release is below the jump.
There are a couple of very specific references in the press release challenging the KC-767 vs. the Northrop KC-30, which is based on the Airbus A330-200.
What we find particularly interesting is the announcement that the KC767 will have a 787-based cockpit, and a new fly-by-wire boom that as best we can tell is V 6.0 derived from the ill-fated KC-767AT. Illustrations on Boeing’s tanker web site have consistently shown a KC767 with winglets, but the press release says nothing about this (the updated tanker website continues to show a KC767W). It’s unclear what, if any, wing structural changes or whether a new wing might be involved, another feature from the KC767AT.
Boeing continues to cite the 24% fuel burn advantage it claims of the KC767 over the KC-30, which does not take into account additional savings afforded by winglets, which amount to about 4% on the commercial 767-300ER.
We also note Boeing’s specific reference to a flight control system that gives the aircrew “unrestricted access to the full flight envelop for threat avoidance at any time” as opposed to the computer-driven fly-by-wire system of the A330.
It has been assumed Boeing would offer a KC767 based on the Italian KC767, which is several years late and still undelivered. Market sources continue to assert Boeing has problems with the wing-mounted pods (Boeing previously said this has been fixed) as well as the fuselage center-line hose-and-drogue (Boeing previously declined comment). Boeing calls its offering the low-risk solution. Northrop continues to point to Boeing’s non-delivery of the Italian tankers as evidence of high-risk. EADS’ KC-330 MRTT is 18 months late to launch customer Australia.
We are hearing more and more than Northrop is more likely to protest the Final Request for Proposal than to no-bid the project. A announcement is expected by next week.
Christmas Day bombing attempt
BBC sponsored a bombing test on a retired Boeing 747 to see if the Northwest Airlines Airbus A330 would have survived the Christmas Day bombing attempt. The results are surprising and may be seen here.
The aluminum fuselage flexed but did not breach. We immediately wondered what the result would have been with a composite fuselage that makes up the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350.
Northrop may decide on KC-X this week or next
Northrop Grumman may decide this week or next what it will do about the bid for the USAF KC-X Final Request for Proposal, Leeham.net understands.
Northrop has said frequently and clearly that it may not bid because it believes the FRFP is skewed toward Boeing’s KC-767, and we are satisfied this is no idle threat. But we also believe that while the odds, as things stand today, are that Northrop won’t bid, don’t consider this a sure thing.
Sliding Euro helps Airbus
As Airbus and EADS countdown to the March 6 earnings report with a hoped-for resolution of the financially disastrous A400M program, the companies are unexpectedly benefiting from a recent weakening of the Euro to the US dollar.
Every 10 cent difference in the exchange rate means US$1bn EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) to Airbus, whose costs are primarily in Euros while sales are in dollars.
KC-X FRFP due Feb. 23; does a report hint on outcome?
The Final Request for Proposals for the USAF’s KC-X aerial tanker is due to be issued Feb. 23. The controversial and hotly contested procurement between Boeing and Northrop Grumman is supposed to be decided as a result of information provided in the FRFP, but does another document issued this month by DOD hint at the outcome?
Woods Hole searching for Air France wreckage
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute from Boston has been hired to search for the wreckage of Air France 447, the Airbus A330-200 that disappeared in the South Atlantic during a severe thunderstorm.
Woods Hole participated in the search for the Titanic, along with famed oceanographer Robert Ballard. Ballard is not involved in the search for the A330 wreckage.
Murtha death bad news for Northrop tanker bid
The death today of US Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, means US Rep. Norm Dicks (D-Boeing/WA) will likely succeed him, and this is bad news for Northrop Grumman and its bid for the KC-X USAF aerial tanker.
Murtha supported a plan to split the buy between Northrop’s KC-30, based on the Airbus A330-200, and Boeing’s KC-767 despite opposition from the Department of Defense for a dual procurement. Murtha believed a split buy was the only solution that would win Congressional funding to replace the 50-year old Boeing KC-135s.
Hazy leaves ILFC
Steven Udvar-Hazy, co-founder of International Lease Finance Corp. and one of the most powerful voices in commercial aviation, retired on 5 February after more than 27 years in the leasing business.
His departure from ILFC was expected since the mega-lessor was plunged into a financial morass because of the massive scandal at its parent, AIG, which acquired ILFC in 1990 in what was then considered a masterful piece of timing. Only a year later, Iraq invaded Kuwait and aircraft, airline and lessor valuations plunged on the global economic crisis created by the subsequent Iraq War of 1991.
Tanker, 787, 747
Last week was quite active in aerospace and so were we, unable to post. So here’s a recap of some of the things that occurred and our thoughts.
More politics and the Tanker
For the past two years we have bemoaned the politicizing of the procurement process for the KC-X tanker, extending our criticism mostly on previous Boeing efforts with its Congressional supporters–most notably Sen. Patty Murray (D-Boeing/WA) and Reps. Norm Dicks (D-Boeing/WA) and Todd Tiahrt (R-Boeing/KS). Now comes Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Northrop/AL) who, in a display that represents all the worst of what’s wrong with Congress, placed a hold on 70 Obama Administration appointments in a fit over his displeasure of the KC-X Request for Proposals and his belief it disadvantages the Northrop Grumman KC-30.