Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
KC-777 ready to go?
Update, 6:00PM Paris Time:
By now readers probably have seen the news from the Air Show on this topic: Boeing is prepared to offer either a 777-based tanker or a 767-based tanker, depending on the RFP requirements. Bloomberg News has a good summary of the IDS briefing on this topic. It may be found here. As far as the factual reporting goes, we don’t have anything to add to the Bloomberg piece. There is a full tanker briefing tomorrow, at which the media has been promised more detail.
Barring any more downpours like we had today to further dampen the spirits of aviation, we will be there..
Original Post:
This is the second in a series of articles from the EADS Media Day and the Paris Air show….
There was an interesting buzz at the Aerospace Journalist of the Year Awards dinner on the eve of the launch of the Paris Air Show.
Word was circulating that Boeing will announce at its Integrated Defense Systems briefing at 11 am June 15 that the company is prepared to offer the USAF a tanker based on the 777-200F should the new Draft Request for Proposals outline requirements for a larger medium tanker than Boeing’s previous KC-767-200AT offering.
787 Line 2: Not in Seattle, says Exec Candidate
Production Line 2 of the Boeing 787 won’t be in Seattle, a candidate for King County Executive told the on-line newspaper, Crosscut Seattle.
King County is where Seattle is located and Boeing’s Commercial Airplane headquarters is in the county. The 787 is assembled across the county line in Snohomish County at the Everett plant, but the 737 line is in King County at Renton.
Fred Jarrett, one of five candidates running in August’s primary, is a Boeing manager and a state senator. Crosscut had this report on the 787:
On coming up with big state subsidies to make sure Boeing’s second 787 production line is built here: “The second line will be elsewhere, in Texas or the South. Boeing is just doing that to have more options. The real question is about future narrow body assembly.” Jarrett claims no inside knowledge, despite all his years at Boeing. But if this is true about the 787 Dreamliner, the state could save itself from undergoing a political maelstrom by pushing for massive tax incentives — just what is now gearing up in the Governor’s office and the Chamber of Commerce.
Off to the Paris Air Show
We will be attending the EADS Media Day June 13 and the Paris Air Show on Monday and Tuesday. Watch for our reports from each event.
Performance, delays will be factors in KC-X rebid
The US Air Force is gearing up to issue a new request for proposals, perhaps as early as July, for Round 3 of the KC-X aerial refueling tanker competition. Pentagon officials hope to award a contract by year end.
The contest is widely expected to be a rematch of the battle between the Northrop Grumman/EADS/Airbus KC-30 and the Boeing KC-767AT. Although nobody knows what specifications will be in the RFP, the belief is that it will largely reflect the technical requirements of those in the Round Two RFP won by Northrop.
Boeing successfully protested the award, saying the USAF gave extra credit to the larger KC-30 while telling Boeing that it would not—thus prompting Boeing to stick with its KC-767 proposal. Boeing hinted that had it known of the USAF preference for a larger airplane, it might have offered a tanker based on the 777-200F.
A380 vs 747-8
Update, June 12: Boeing’s new 20 year forecast issued immediately before the Paris Air Show now forecasts just 740 VLAs, a dramatic drop from 960+ in its previous forecast. You can bet we’ll ask Airbus about this–and just guess what its answer will be.
Air Transport Intelligence, covering a United Airlines presentation at an investors conference, reports the carrier isn’t interested in the 747-8I:
“We’re focused on a new technology aircraft to materially improve cost performance,” said United senior vice president corporate planning and strategy Greg Taylor today during the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch transportation conference. The 747-8 is “not on the top of our list”, he adds.
United has specified to each manufacturer the aircraft it is most interested in, and Taylor explains the carrier has “left the door open for creativity”.
Original Post:
This is the last of our continuing reports from the Airbus Innovation Days….
Airbus continues to have production and delivery issues with the A380 and now, with the global economy and premium traffic doing so poorly, there have been additional deferrals and YTD no new orders for the giant airplane.
But Airbus still believes in the aircraft and continues to hold to its belief that to 2026, there will be a need for 1,280 Very Large Aircraft (VLA) in the passenger category. Airbus forecasts the need for at least 300 more VLA freighters.
United for 150 orders?
Update, June 5:
Here are a couple of news articles about this story:
Here is a 19-minute podcast on this story by Addison Schonland, Ernie Arvai, Erkan Pinar and us.
Original Post:
Be still my heart.
United Airlines requested RFPs from Airbus and Boeing for 150 airplanes, a mix of wide- and -narrow-body orders, including replacements for 97 Boeing 757s.
Why “be still my heart?” Because CEO Glenn Tilton has previously shown zero inclination to invest in United, preferring to shop the airline for a merger. United previously announced that long-standing orders for Airbus A320s would be canceled, forfeiting tens of millions in deposits–though we don’t believe these actually were canceled, not having shown up this way on the Airbus orders tally.
A330 vs 787
Another in the continuing reports from the Airbus Innovation Days….
Airbus provided an A330/A340 market update during its Innovation Days presentations in Hamburg earlier in May.
The A340 has become irrelevant to the new airplane market, with only a handful of new orders remaining and virtually none forthcoming in the last several years. Airbus is tweaking the A340 with some aerodymic improvements designed to reduce fuel burn by 1%. Along with maintenance procedure changes to the A330, the A340 increases the interval on the A Check to 800 flight hours from the current 600; C Check intervals go from 18 months to 21-24 months; Intermediate Checks increased from five years at EIS to the current six years and remains unchanged; and Structural Checks increase from 10 years to 12 years.
We resisted asking whether the A340’s Product Improvement Package includes a large Parking Brake sign in the cockpit.
BWB a big challenge
To some, the Blended Wing Body airplane seems like a great idea. We like it, too. It’s highly fuel efficient–estimated to be up to 30% more so than the Airbus A380. The body acts as lift, providing a lot of the efficiency.
It’s voluminous. It can carry more than 1,000 people and it has great cargo-carrying capability. It’s also been discussed as an aerial refueling tanker for the US Air Force.
A350 vs 787, 777
Another in a series of the Airbus Innovation Days in Hamburg, Germany, earlier this month….
Airbus predicted that the A350 will capture 50% of the medium twin-aisle market forecast of 5,900 aircraft over the next 2o years, company officials said at the press event.
(As an aside, the same forecast predicts 1,698 Large Aircraft [i.e., A380/747].)
When one considers that the Boeing competition will be the 787, the 777 and its successor, this is a pretty bold forecast.