Odds and Ends: Airbus–60% of single aisle market; 777X customer meeting and EIS; advancing A350-1000

Airbus Market Share: Airbus figures it will keep around a 60% market share for single-aisles, according to this Reuters story. Boeing is going to beat Airbus handily for sales this year with the conversion of hundreds of MAX commitments to firm orders, but Airbus’ runaway success with the NEO program is a tough hill to climb for Boeing. A more telling market share story will likely come next year, after the orgy of sales is over for both companies and market stability returns.

777X Customer Meeting and EIS: With all the talk about what Boeing is planning with the 777X, there is a customer meeting in Seattle next week (a routine event) to talk about the aircraft, several who are planning to attend tell us. The 777X came up during the Boeing earnings call yesterday and Boeing CEO Jim McNerney said this about EIS: “Well, we are looking at the end of the decade [or] the beginning of the next decade…. [Emphasis added.] Our customers would like it sooner…. We have a robust dialogue going out with our customers right now to make sure we get it right.”

Note the comment about the beginning of “next decade.” Up until now, Boeing has been saying consistently that EIS would be the “end of this decade.” We’ve been hearing from our sources that EIS might slip to the beginning of the next decade, but as far as we can tell, this is the first public acknowledgement.

Airbus this week said it might advance EIS of the A350-1000 from 2017. If Airbus could achieve this, and if Boeing were to slip EIS of the 777X from 2019 to early next decade, Airbus could have an advantage with the 1000. Even if Boeing stuck with 2019, an advance by Airbus would give it a two or more year advantage (similar timing of the NEO vs MAX).

The sport game continues.

8 Comments on “Odds and Ends: Airbus–60% of single aisle market; 777X customer meeting and EIS; advancing A350-1000

  1. Bob Rosati, a great engineer and leader at P&W, the first president of IAE, passed away yesterday, Obit in the Oct 25 Hartford Courant. I hope you can mention the passing of this great man.

    Thanks

    Sent from my iPad

  2. Airbus needs to get its A350 plane built, flown, certified first. Also, they will need to have a stable production line to be able to offer the -1000XWB in substantial amounts (at least w/out having to convert orders). When Airbus was offering the A3XX, they stated they will be able to build/deliver 4/month. Now they want to deliver 40/year but they aren’t even at that figure yet.

    I also believe Boeing needs to be a little more conservative in terms of delivery after the B787 fiasco.

    I would like to see them “under-promise” and “over-deliver”. I still think 2019-2020 is when the B77X will be available..depending on the configurations, etc.

  3. If Boeing is suggesting early next decade, IMO everything is open again, because it is simply to far away for the airlines, similar to the NSA.

    Secondly, 8 years is what is needed for an all new design, not for upgrading a by then 25 yrs old, now questionably competitive, heavy, slightly oversized airframe.

    IMO it could indicate Boeing is still considering alternatives to be truly competitive while at the same time trying to keep major 777 customers loyal.

    CX and SQ are bad enough, but e.g. UA, BA, AF/KLM, EK and ANA are getting impatient too..

    The airlines seem to have rejected the 777-8 over the “undefined” A350-1000. I see a “quick & dirty” 777 re-engine and/or a rewinged/stretched 787 entering the arena..

  4. “…Secondly, 8 years is what is needed for an all new design, not for upgrading a by then 25 yrs old, now questionably competitive, heavy, slightly oversized airframe.” Quite. There has been a degree (or two) of ambiguity with “777X” references representing both warmed-over upgrades of the current aircraft and a centerline replacement design. One needs to be sure what others mean when they use the term.

  5. Well maybe Boeing doesn’t want the public humiliation of getting the configuration wrong four times after announcing it. And the real test will be when the customers start flying them.

  6. The 777 frame is not so old that it would be obsolete with a make over. New wings,new engines and some other tweaks could keep the most popular widebody going for years and keep carriers from going over to airbus. Boeing has a good chance of being the dominant widebody aircraft maker with the 777X and the 787 in 3 models. The 787-10 sounds like it will have much appeal among the worlds airlines. Hopefully upgrading these two models will not entail the long delay and frustration incurred with the 787-8.

  7. I’m afraid for e.g BA, UA, EK and AF/KLM a “w’ll start deliveries after 2020” might not be a satisfactory proposal. Maybe it has to sink in they just lost SQ and CX first.

  8. Boeing has never release any detail of the 777-X
    The 777-X is not official program
    Boeing is waiting to see what Airbus will do with the A-350-900 which is being report as the A350-900 and-1000
    Boeing has always lead the aircraft market
    The 777-X will replace the 747-8 since there only 111 orders for the aircraft

    Boeing need to do is to offer a 777-100 as replacement for the 787-8 and 777-XX for a replace for the 787-9 & -10 since the 787 will not make any money
    http://theblogbyjavier.com/2011/11/03/787-break-even-for-dum
    How many airlines would need a 400 passenger aircraft that can fly 9000 mile non stop
    Most airline with stop and refuel their existing aircraft
    The high cost of fuel has cause airline like Southwest and other to delay their orders for aircraft
    Tax payer dollars cannot be used to improve airport for lager aircraft the size of A380
    Boeing Everett does not has the assembly bay, paint hanger composite equipment , auto clay , clean room, climate controlled factory, south Caroline has 480 assembly bay and most of the equipment
    Boeing has yet to meet rate on the 747-8 or the 787-8 or build the 787-9 and -10

    The 747-8 is two years late and 2.04 Billion over budget, 787-8 is 3.5 years late the first 40 aircraft cost Boeing 32 billion and 48 787-8 still need to be rework
    Boeing has delivery 31 747 and 31 787
    Air India will take delivery of their 787s… But now Air India wanted compensation for 787 failure to meet performance guarantees

    http://nyc787.blogspot.com/2012/08/air-india-to-be-allowed-t

    But where is the market for wide-body long-range aircraft at?
    Airbus has 253 firm orders for the A380, of which 75 has been delivered
    The long-range 9,000 miles A340-500 has only 36 orders, 32 has been delivery (Airbus announced on November 10, 2011, that the A340 program had been terminated due to lack of new orders)

    A350 has 548 orders

    Boeing has 111 confirmed orders for the 747-8 including 75 freighter version, and 36 of passenger version there may be 17 more 747-8 on order by China)

    http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2000/news_release_000121

    Boeing freighter sales hit dry spell

    Boeing has 166 unfilled orders for the cargo versions of the 777, 747 and 767, according to the company’s website. And only 16 had been delivered through May 29, according to Bob Saling, a company spokesman.

    http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20120601/BIZ/706019886/1005

    The 747-400 was sold to 63 operator the 747-8 has been sold to 12 operator
    Altus air cancel their first three aircraft and Cargolux Airlines cancel their order for 2 months, for being overweight and not meeting perform requirement

    http://airinsight.com/2011/09/21/atlas-air-cancels-3-747-8f-

    http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2011/09/19/more-on-cargolux-

    Besides engine woes, the 747-8 is also up to 8 or 9 tons overweight, according to industry reports. Boeing has not confirmed that estimate. Boeing spokesman Jim Proulx
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/us-boeing-idUSTRE7
    http://airinsight.com/2011/09/21/atlas-air-cancels-3-747-8f-
    Delta airline has no plan to replace there fleet of 747-400 , British Airways has no plans to replace their 747-400 with 747-8 ,
    Boeing did not build the double-decker 747-500 & -600 in 1997 due to a lack of orders, or the MD-12 or the 797
    Boeing may want get serious about Yellowstone projects Y-3 or the Boeing 797 Blended Wing plane
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Yellowstone_Project

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