Pratt & Whitney sees long-term aviation growth, airline profits
Paul Adams, president of Pratt & Whitney. Source: UTC.
April 2, 2015: Paul Adams, president of Pratt & Whitney, provided an “state of the business” of PW during the second day of the Media Days. We follow our usual format of recapping his comments in paraphrased form.
- We have been in a significant investment phase over the last three years. The biggest is the GTF, We are transition from development to entry into service, first with the A320neo and then the Bombardier CSeries and then the other programs.
- We’ll be driving to increase the aftermarket service.
- 2014 was a transformational year, certifying nine engines (GTF and non-commercial engines). 2015 will be an extremely busy year with flight testing with 10 airframers on four continents.
- The health of commercial aviation is healthy and will continue well into the future. This is driven by urbanization and that only 17% of world’s population has been on an airplane.
- Oil cost has helped make the airlines profitable and so has consolidation.
- The common technology and architecture platforms across small, mid- and large GTFs allow testing lessons learned to go across all lines.
- Based on successful certification of two of the three variants (MRJ90 engine yet to be certification), the risk profile is substantially reduced.
- From a business perspective, GTF has radically change PW going forward. From 1997 through 2013 saw a reduction of production and installed base. GTF has reversed this.
- PW is applying the GTF core to the PW800 the Gulfstream G500/600, doubling PW’s share of business jet market to 50%.
- We’re increasing aftermarket services business to increase PW profits, better service customers. 40% PW4000 under contract, 60% for V2500, 75% for GP7000, 80% for GTF. Service program backlog up to $50bn.
- We want to keep engines on-wing longer, and if maintenance is required, we want to do as much as possible on-wing.
- The GTF and the 2% PIP is a key enabler for the A321LR.
- It’s going to be tough for CFM to match the GTF.
- I’m not wound up on share percentage vs CFM. We have a great backlog and I want to win profitable deals. It’s going to be easier for us to go into customers and say, Here’s what our product is doing…what’s the other guy doing? They can’t show you at this time.
- Seven airlines that have been traditional CFM customers have switched to PW portfolio.
- The Airbus program will be pretty firm for production ramp up. We’ve built in delays and potential delays of other programs in our ramp-up plans.
- The gear technology is applicable to widebody but there aren’t any widebodies in the short-term horizon, so it was easy for (UTC CEO) Greg Hayes to say we won’t be pursuing this in the short-term.
Category: Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
Tags: A320NEO, Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries, G500, G600, GP7000, Gulfstream, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, Paul Adams, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, PW4000, V2500
“The biggest is the GTF, We are transition from development to entry into service, first with the A320neo and then the Bombardier CSeries and then the other programs.”
Apparently, P & W thinks the A320 will beat the CS100 to EIS. Since the EIS of the CS100 is now said to be in “early 2016”, according to Mr. Bellemare’s recent declarations, it would mean the the A320neo would enter service even earlier.
Yet, we hear relatively little about the evolution of the A320neo’s test program.
It seems the EIS date for the A320neo was moved forward:
Wiki is incorrect (or very, very old). Oct 2015 has been EIS for A320neo for as long as I can remember. Of course, the first customer is Qatar, so who knows.
Bernard, in a recent post I said that the A320neo would EIS at least six months before the CS100. I used the same assumption as Scott: October 2015 for the A320neo and early 2016 for the CSeries. That being said, I would not bet any money on a CS100 EIS before PAS. At this stage it appears to be still manageable for the CS100 to enter service say in Spring of 2016. But when I look back at the programme from the beginning I see delays piling up one after the other. Bombardier are highly motivated and very competent but they lack the expertise that Boeing and Airbus have painfully accumulated over the years.
Mathematically, October 2015 looks like a safe bet for the end of the CSeries flight testing. For at that stage they should have accumulated the required 2400 hours they need for certification. But can they keep five FTVs in the air at the same rate we have seen at the start of the year? It is possible, but if they were to hit a big snag this could reduce the flying time like when an engine disintegrated on the tarmac last year. I am used to big surprises with Bombardier. But they are always bad surprises. And the only reason why I keep being surprised is because I give too much credence to what they say.
A320NEO EIS was pulled forward about 6 months 4 years ago.
It seems Pratt has a good shot at powering the Boeing MoM, Airbus A360X, Greenliner or however a A300/A310/757/767 replacement is named these days. Little competition in sight from GE or RR.