By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

Oct. 19, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Boeing presents its Q3 2015 results on Wednesday. This is a hotly awaited presentation, as analysts then will get another data point in their quest to understand if the 787 program will ever turn a profit.

We believe it is pretty clear that the program will not record an overall profit with the cost of development as well as production costs included. With a development cost of close to $20bn, this is to ask for too much. The question is if the production over the first 1,300 units can turn a profit. This is also under scrutiny.

Boeing employs program accounting for the production phase of an aircraft program and now, 25% into the accounting period for the 787, the accumulated deferred costs are such that it is questionable if future deliveries can compensate.

We take a look at the present state and what Boeing has said about the future. Based on this information, we can deduce if it is probable that Boeing can turn $32bn of deferred cost for the 787 into a profit by 2022.

Summary:

• We analyze Boeing’s information around its deferred production cost for the 787 and show how many analysts have misunderstood what has been said.
• Based on the Boeing information, we can deduce the present production cost level, learning curves and when production costs go below the assumed average in the accounting block.
• We also show what the delivery mix from 787-8 and 787-9 to 787-9 and 787-10 will mean for margins in the program.
• Finally, we judge whether Boeing will turn the corner on production cost and get the accounting block to a black zero (or better).