July 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Going into the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) next week, ominous signs continue to emerge about the health of the air cargo
The International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Wednesday said yields and traffic remain under pressure. Freight tonne kilometers fell 0.9% year-over-year, IATA reported.
“Yields remained pressured as freight capacity measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs) increased by 4.9% year-on-year,” IATA said. “reight demand decreased or flat lined in May across all regions with the exception of Europe and the Middle East. These regions recorded growth in air cargo volumes of 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, in May, compared to the same period last year.”
Lufthansa Cargo saw yields in a “landside” drop, according to a Bloomberg report.
None of this bodes well for the new-build, dedicated freighter market. For Boeing, which is counting on a replacement recovery demand by 2019, this is particularly discouraging news for its 747-8F.
The company is reporting its annual Cargo Forecast press briefing at Farnborough at the Volga-Dnepr chalet. It’s expected Volga will announced a firm order for perhaps 10 747-8Fs then. The company last year announced a “commitment” for up to 20 747-8Fs.
But this won’t fill the production line for the 747-8F despite the lowered rate of 6/yr. Volga’s delivery stream announced at Paris was over seven years, or at best 3/yr if all 20 aircraft were ordered.
Volga has taken delivery of two 747-8F white tails.
The IATA and Lufthansa reports also don’t bode well for the new-build Airbus A330F. The A330F hasn’t sold well and many orders were converted to passenger models in recent years.