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• Part 1; Bombardier will appear next week.

Introduction

March 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Economics simply don’t support development of a new turboprop any time soon, an analysis shows.

Low utilization by turboprop operators, the cost of development and the price to customers drive decision-making more than fuel prices.

LNC interviewed ATR and Bombardier officials for their views on development of a new turboprop. We also interviewed a key executive who knows the sector intimately. Their views diverge.

Summary

• It will cost upwards of $5bn to develop a new turboprop.
• The 20-year demand is limited, 2,000-2,500 depending on the forecaster.
• The top-end price point is at best in the low-to-mid-$20m. Any more than this, and the price encroaches on small jets.
• At least 90 seats are needed.
• Fuel burn reduction of at least 30% is needed—a difficult target.