Milestone for Embraer with the E195-E2

Sept. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer passed a milestone last week with the delivery of the first E195-E2, to Azul Airlines of Brazil.

The airplane is the largest Embraer has designed. It’s bigger than the KC-390 tanker-transport. It’s longer than the Boeing 737-8 but shorter than the Boeing 737-9. It carries 146 passengers in high density configuration.

The marketing head for Embraer’s US offices says the E195-E2 will be the sales leader while the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, John Slattery, said it will account for a third of program sales.

Either way, LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm was on site for the delivery and tomorrow will begin a series of articles analyzing the design of the E195-E2 and its economics compared with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A220.

Current skyline

Embraer’s firm order skyline remains dominated by the E175-E1, according to an analysis of data by LNA.

The E195-E2 has a larger firm order backlog than the E190-E2. There are no firm orders for the E175-E2, though Slattery expects some outside US by year-end.

The current firm backlog shows Embraer’s production line sold out through 2021, at a rate of 96/yr, its historical output. A small gap appears in 2022, followed by major gaps in 2023 and 2024.

However, it’s important to note that E-Jet sales tend to be close-in.

Furthermore, the E175-E2 doesn’t currently comply with US Scope restrictions because its empty weight leaves to little range under the Scope Clause contracts with American, Delta and United airlines.

No weight relief is expected this year or next. The next round of negotiations is in 2023/24, coinciding with the production gaps currently illustrated with the firm orders.

Options, LOIs

But Embraer has hundred of options and Letters of Intent for the E2 family, with 300 for the E175-E2 alone.

Embraer reserved delivery positions for this model in the 2023-2025 period, which not only fill the 96/yr production rate but coupled with the larger models, exceed the rate.

Production gaps appear from 2026 under this scenario.

13 Comments on “Milestone for Embraer with the E195-E2

  1. I agree that 195-E2 will be a sales líder for E2 family. It is a good modern aircraft – not so capable as A220 (less space, less range, less pax, less futuristic and inadequate for strech in future, but cheaper) but I’m sure it will find its place in the market for quicker, shorter routes – it all depends what an airline needs, can afford, strategy.

    Shame is that scope-clauses doesn’t allow any modern next gen aircraft, only MITACs in near future.

    Bring it on Bjorn! (E2 vs A220)

    • Scope-clause does not prevent any airline from operating E2-175. The airlines just have to pay pilots better on these more capable aircraft.

      • Of course you right. But reality is that scope-clauses restrain modern aircraft purchases. Only Delta decided to put A220 into mainline to fo partly a regional job.

        • In my country we dont have regional jets, those are turbo props. All the other routes mostly between 500km and 750km are flown by A320 and 737 type aircraft. ( 60-100mins)
          Yet the US has planty of E175s flying above 1.5 to 3 hrs-
          Is Havana to Newark really a ‘regional flight or Houston to LaGuardia ?
          I can get it with a secondary airport like Everett in Seattle to San Diego or Los Angeles a 2.5 hr flight. However a large portion of flights are ‘non regional routes’, more like they want to keep slots to prevent competition.
          Southwest and many LCC like them in US doesnt do ‘regional’ type planes at all.

        • Deltas A220 ( so far 22 in fleet) will replace 110 seater B717 (88 in fleet) and the the 132 seater A319. ( 57 in fleet)
          Neither of those replaced types are ‘scope regionals’

      • Which means they are at a serious competitive disadvantage.

        Delta is the only one that has it scoped out to work to any degree.

        And they use in scope operations as well.

  2. If think the E195E2 is Boeing’s only viable wildcart left for the upcoming Southwest 737-700 fleet replacement. They have 500+ 737-700s and many will need to be replaced in the next 10 years.

    The 5t lighter light, quiet, Mobile build, Pratt powered A223 is looking nice. Southwest deferred/converted most of their small order 737-7’s for years. Before the grounding already .

    • Any ideas about the A220 XLR? And how it would impact E2 and MAX 7 (or larger) sales?

      According to Jon Ostrower, Moxy will be the launch operator for a +4000 NM A220-300 XLR.

    • Things we do know: The A220 is probably the more capable on most city pairs; it probably costs a little more; it can easily be lengthened; both the A220 and the E195E2 probably pretty much have the same engine. But of course, it would have been great to read the review, but I understand the economics of the situation.

  3. I wonder if Boeing should invest in a further upgrade to bring the aircraft up in capacity with a few rows. At standard 30 inch 134-138 seats go in. With some sort of premium seats in front, it could really make a difference in the large below 150 seat segment. 2000NM range will do to keep weight & operating costs down..

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