NMA off the table in 2020–and maybe entirely

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Oct. 21, 2019, © Leeham News, New York: What is the impact of the 737 MAX grounding on Boeing’s plan for the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA)?

This question was common along the sidelines last week of the Wings Club and two conferences in New York City. (See Pontifications.)

There is, of course, no definitive answer today.

But the plurality of opinion is that the NMA is off the table for the indefinite future.

  • There is no clear picture when the MAX will be recertified, either by the FAA or other regulators.
  • There is no clear picture how long Boeing will maintain production rate at 42/mo, which depends on how much longer it must wait for recertification.
  • With turmoil in the executive suite (the CEO lost his chairman’s title Oct. 11), there is no clear picture how long Dennis Muilenburg has a job.
  • With, apparently, Boeing Commercial CEO Kevin McAllister also in the cross hairs, there is no clear picture of executive suite stability at Longacres, the BCA HQ.
  • Any successors for Muilenburg and/or McAllister will want to review Boeing’s entire product strategy.
  • Therefore, do not expect any go-forward for NMA in 2020.

Other than that, everything is fine.

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