By the Leeham News Staff
Airbus does not publish such order adjustments by aircraft program in its monthly order and deliveries report. The European OEM publishes a total outstanding amount of contracts for commercial aircraft in its annual reports. However, the figure does not have a breakdown by program.
As a result, Airbus and Boeing order books aren’t an apple to apple comparison. The COVID-induced traffic slump has had a significant impact on airlines’ financial situation. Therefore, adjusting order books is necessary to assess an aircraft program’s backlog situation.
The below is an attempt by LNA to perform such a comparison for all commercial aircraft programs at Airbus and Boeing. We include freighter, VIP, and government aircraft.
Several older programs (777 Classic, A320ceo, and A330neo) have a higher portion of orders that won’t likely convert into deliveries. The higher figure is because neither OEM has yet fully “cleaned-up” their order books.
A significant portion of the A330neo order book is at risk. LNA recently wrote a story on the topic.
Note that we do not take into account cases where the airline is in discussions about conversions or cancellations while being evaluated as financially sound. An example is Emirates’ ongoing discussions with Boeing to convert a portion of its 777X order to Dreamliners.
As part of an effort to reduce carbon emissions, a convention mandated by the French government proposed new taxes for the aviation industry. Those include:
A study commissioned by the government estimated that traffic would slump between 14% and 19% as a result of those measures, causing 120,000 to 150,000 job losses.