The famed Airbus “5th Quarter”–huge LionAir buy reported

We talked about this a month of more ago: the prospect LionAir would order 100 Airbus A320 family aircraft. Today (or was it yesterday, in Asia?) comes this report that LionAir signed an order in December for as many as 220 A320neos (with PW GTF engines, we understand).

Through November Airbus recorded a net of 585 orders, compared with Boeing’s year-end total of 1,200. Reuters believes Airbus will end 2012 with around 900 orders.

LionAir has been exclusively a Boeing customer.

Update, Jan. 10: Avolon (a lessor) announced today it signed an order for 20 additional A320s in December.

SPEEA-Boeing talks resume today; grim outlook

Flashback to 2000 strike: KPLU takes a look.

The war of words resumed yesterday in advance of contract talks that restart today at 1pm PT in Seattle between Boeing and its engineers’ union, SPEEA.

Even before parties reconvened, SPEEA yesterday issued a press statement outlining demonstrations to take place today:

Wednesday’s ‘Day of Action’ events are expected to draw from dozens at small sites to hundreds and thousands of SPEEA members walking inside and outside Boeing facilities in Renton and Everett. Boeing has drawn three Unfair Labor Practice Charges (ULPs) for videotaping and photographing union members at the events, confiscating cameras and the photographs they held. All of the marches have been peaceful. The ULPs are awaiting action before the National Labor Relations Board.

Both sides want an agreement without a strike, but SPEEA has been vocal for weeks, predicting talks will break down almost immediately because—in its view—the two sides are too far apart.

Boeing has a different view. The company notes that SPEEA at one point offered to extend its current contract, which Boeing rejected in part because health care and pension costs would remain unchanged. But the company points out that the current contract includes a 5% annual raise while Boeing’s current offer is 4.5%–just one-half of one percent apart. SPEEA has asked for 6% in the current negotiations.

Where the real differences appear to be are over those pesky health care and pension costs. SPEEA asserts that Boeing is asking for too much in the way of co-pays and other medical costs and that by changing the retirement plan from a defined benefit program to a define contribution to a 401(k), any raises offered by Boeing are negated and in effect result in losing money.

Boeing takes issue with this, saying that over the life of its contract offer, SPEEA engineers will receive $17,000 in raises and spend $5,000 in added medical costs.

As for the retirement plan, Boeing says the proposal for switching to a defined contribution to a 401(k) will be for new-hires only. Non-union employees throughout the company are on a 401(k) plan.

We view the current situation as grim. We think Boeing Chicago is misunderstanding the mood of SPEEA members, just as it did in the contract vote in October and as it did with IAM 751 in 2008.

But as we’ve written before, as one who pays 100% of our medical and retirement costs, we have little sympathy for Boeing wanting SPEEA members to pony up a greater share of health care costs. We also believe that defined benefit plans have unrealistic federal ROI assumptions that place an undue burden on companies. Update: we certainly muddled this statement. We’ve previously written that we have little sympathy for SPEEA not wanting to pony up more of its own health care costs, and this is our position.

At the same time, we recognize that SPEEA–along with the IAM–saved Boeing’s bacon during the debacles of the 787 and 747-8 development, and it’s also clear that neither program is running smoothly just yet.

We also believe that profit sharing, such as that proposed by Boeing, is a good employee incentive. But we also believe that Boeing Chicago tends to trend toward being too anti-union for its own good.

We don’t think there will be a quick resolution as talks resume today. SPEEA is planning job actions and it is making plans to shut down deliveries as soon as a strike occurs. The 42-day SPEEA strike in 2000 saw 50 fewer deliveries at a time when production rates were far less than today.

We hope cooler heads prevail, but we’re not counting on it.

Embraer selects PW GTF for E-Jet RE; concept clarity comes at last

It’s official: Embraer selected the PW GTF to re-engine the E-175, E-190 and E-195.

In doing so, it looks like the E-170 will be allowed to wither on the vine.

This is a huge win for PW and setbacks for Rolls-Royce, which sorely wanted to win the E-Jet RE for its Advance 2 RR development; and for GE, the incumbent supplier of the CF34 and which was developing the Next Generation variant for the E-Jet.

EMB EJet RE

It’s yet another validation for the GTF. Versions of this engine will power the Mitsubishi MRJ, the Bombardier CSeries, the Irkut MS-21, the Airbus A320neo family and now the E-Jet RE.

It’s a huge comeback for PW, which made a major strategic error in not competing to power the Boeing 737 300/400/500. Boeing continues to use the GE/CFM LEAP engine as its sole-source supply for the 737 MAX, though Boeing seriously evaluated the GTF as well.

Below is EMB’s press release:

Embraer Selects Pratt & Whitney’s PurePower Engines for Second Generation of E-Jets

São José dos Campos, January 8, 2013 – Embraer SA (NYSE: ERJ; BM&FBOVESPA: EMBR3) announced today that Pratt & Whitney´s PurePower® Geared TurbofanTM engines have been selected for its future, second generation of E-Jets, with entry into service planned for 2018. The decision is an important milestone in the program, which is expected to be officially launched later this year.

The new engines – the PW1700G and PW1900G – range in thrust from 15,000 to 22,000 pounds. In combination with new aerodynamically advanced wings, state-of-the-art full fly-by-wire flight controls and other systems evolutions, they will result in double digit improvements in fuel burn, maintenance costs, emissions and external noise.

“We are very happy to expand our partnership with Pratt & Whitney, keeping the E-Jets family as the best solution for our customers, today and in the future”, said Frederico Fleury Curado, President & CEO of Embraer. “The PurePower GTF engines are a great fit to the next generation of our E-Jets and we look forward to another long lasting and successful program with Pratt & Whitney”.

“We are proud that Embraer has recognized the unmatched value of the PurePower engine, and we are committed to supporting a successful launch of the new E-Jet aircraft family,” said Pratt & Whitney President David Hess. “To date, Pratt & Whitney has completed more than 4,200 hours and 12,400 cycles of full engine testing for the PurePower engine family, demonstrating the benefits and reliability of the engine architecture.” Pratt & Whitney is a division of United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX).

The second generation of E-Jets will be a significant step in Embraer´s commitment to continuously invest in this line of commercial jets, complementing a series of ongoing improvements currently being implemented in the existing family, with great benefits to its customers. Embraer´s objective is to offer the best product and maintain its leadership in the 70 to 120 seat market.

Perspective on 787 Boston incident

Update: Wall Street Journal reporting United Airlines found mis-wired battery following inspections in wake of JAL 787 fire.

Update, 1215 PM PT: Boeing issued this statement regarding the fire incident:

“Regarding yesterday’s event onboard a Japan Airlines (JAL) 787 at Boston Logan Airport, we are working closely with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), our customer and other government agencies. JAL has reported that smoke detected while a 787 was on the ground after passengers disembarked and during cleaning was traced to the battery used to start the auxiliary power unit (APU).

“As is standard practice within the industry, it would be premature to discuss additional details at this stage as the investigation is ongoing. However, nothing that we’ve seen in this case indicates a relationship to any previous 787 power system events, which involved power panel faults elsewhere in the aft electrical equipment bay. Information about the prior events has been shared with the NTSB and they are aware of the details.

“Boeing is cooperating with the NTSB in the investigation of this incident. Before providing more detail, we will give our technical teams the time they need to do a thorough job and ensure we are dealing with facts not speculation.”

Original Post:

We’ve been inundated with calls from media asking what we think about the small fire and battery explosion on the JAL Boeing 787 parked at Boston. A couple of questions were common:

  1. What does this mean for the 787?
  2. Would you fly it?
  3. Is there a problem with the airplane?
  4. Are problems like this common with new airplanes?

Before addressing these specific issues, we want to say: use caution in drawing any conclusions. There is much more we don’t know than what we do know.

We don’t know:

Read more

Odds and Ends: PNAA Aviation Conference; AA-US merger review; UAVs in USA; SPEEA-Boeing; 2013, Part 2

PNAA Conference: The Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance holds its annual conference Feb. 12-14 in Lynnwood (WA), north of Seattle. This event is now the largest of its kind in the Pacific Northwest and the first or second largest of its kind on the West Coast. The top airframe manufacturers present, along with key aerospace analysts (including the ever-entertaining Richard Aboulafia) and key suppliers. There is a Suppliers Fair and this year for the first time a focus day on the airline industry. Follow PNAA @pnaalliance on Twitter.

American-US Airways merger review: This should be concluded within weeks, says AMR CEO Tom Horton.

UAVs in USA: Rules on the use of UAVs within the US are emerging and vary widely throughout the world.

SPEEA and Boeing: A reminder that SPEEA contract negotiations resume with Boeing next week on January 9. Based on conversations with SPEEA, we don’t expect things to go well. SPEEA told us–and pretty much anyone else–that it believes the gap between it and Boeing is so wide that it expects talks to break off quickly. A strike vote will follow and a target date for a strike is February 1. SPEEA filed another Unfair Labor Practice complaint this week over Boeing taking pictures of SPEEA marchers at the Everett plant.

The year ahead, Part 2: Earlier we posted our Leeham.net look at 2013. Here’s what we did for CNN.com, in a somewhat broader look.

Odds and Ends: Embraer v Bombardier; Boeing delivers 601 planes

Embraer v Bombardier: While Airbus and Boeing gain the most attention and headlines, there is another hotly competitive sector: Embraer and Bombardier in the 90-125 seats market. Bloomberg has this item examining the competition here.

Boeing Delivers 601 Aircraft: Buoyed by 46 787s, Boeing delivered 601 aircraft last year, which by this metric means Boeing will best Airbus. Airbus won’t announce its 2012 results until January 17, but is expected to finish with around 580 deliveries.

Boeing ended 2012 with 1,203 net orders, including 914 for the 737 MAX and 1,124 for the 737 family. Through November Airbus recorded 585 net orders. Even with the famed “fifth quarter,” when Airbus is known to announce a whole slew of orders that in the past has overcome Boeing’s apparent lead, we don’t see John Leahy pulling this rabbit out of his hat this time.

Just as 2011 saw Airbus record record orders with the A320neo success, Boeing’s total was boosted by converting commitments to orders. The MAX program ended the year with 1,064 orders. The A320neo has more than 1,500 orders through November.

Odds and Ends: Asia’s LCCs; Fiscal Cliff Deal; Boeing v Airbus; Desert Airplanes

Asia’s LCCs: Aviation Week has this lengthy piece about Asia’s Low Cost Carriers. Update: Financial Times has this in-depth look at AirAsia vs Lion Air. (Free registration required.)

Fiscal Cliff Deal: The can was kicked down the road and Wells Fargo has this assessment on the affect on the Defense Department:

Sequestration Postponed. The bill passed does not prevent the sequestration procedure from automatically reducing defense spending by $500B over the next ten years, including $50-55B of potential reductions from FY2013. Instead, it postpones the deadline for an agreement from January 2, 2013, to March 1, 2013,–a two-month extension. At that time, the DoD will have three weeks to determine how the sequestration will be implemented, with the reductions kicking in on March 27, 2013, rather than on the same day under the original sequestration legislation. The lack of planning time for the sequestration contributed to the uncertainty of its impact, which the new legislation appears to resolve.

Boeing v Airbus: It certainly looks like Boeing sold more airplanes in 2012 than Airbus, but the annual Airbus press conference is January 17 and you never know what last minute orders John  Leahy has up his sleeve. We doubt Boeing is celebrating just yet.

Desert Airplanes: It’s an old story for those of us who follow this sort of thing but the photos are always interesting. CNN has this story, with pictures, of where airplanes go to die.

Looking ahead to 2013 in Commercial Aviation

Last year yielded a few surprises in an otherwise predictable year.

Jim Albaugh shocked the aviation world when he retired unexpectedly at age 62. He was expected to remain in his position as CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes until mandatory retirement at 65.

EADS CEO Tom Enders unleashed a surprise merger proposal with BAE Systems. The deal didn’t work due to German government opposition, but he ultimately accomplished a governance restructuring—a key objective of the merger—that will reduce government meddling in the future.

Those were about it. Boeing’s much-anticipated Authority to Offer the 777X didn’t happen. ATO for the 787-10 was stealthily granted. Airbus and Bombardier, to no surprise, delayed the A350 and CSeries by a few months. Boeing came roaring back to become sales leader for the first time in about a decade, on the strength of 737 MAX sales.

What’s ahead for 2013? Here’s what we see.

Overview

With the spurt of 737 MAX sales over, narrow-body sales competition between Airbus and Boeing should return to normalcy. Will twin-aisle sales become the next growth market because of the first flight of the A350 and the program launch of the 7870-10? Will ATO of the 777X evolve into a program launch as well? Will Bombardier’s first flight of the CSeries and subsequent testing validate its claims for the new technology airplane and finally spur a large number of sales of the “show me” crowd?

Here’s our OEM-by-OEM rundown.

Read more

2012’s Most Influential Person in Commercial Aviation

In 2011 John Leahy of Airbus was voted the most influential person. Who do you think is the most influential this year? We’ll hide the results until the voting is complete.

Leeham on-line poll: 61% expect no contract agreement with SPEEA, Boeing; 57% expect strike

We put two polls into the public domain this week, asking whether SPEEA and Boeing will reach an agreement next month; and if not, will SPEEA strike (a target date is Feb. 1).

The results are in: 61% expect no agreement when talks resume Jan. 9 and 57% expect SPEEA to strike. (These figures reflect results as of this writing. The data may change after this post because polling is still open.)

The percentages are a significant drop from the 96% vote that rejected the Boeing contract offer in October, but it should be noted there is no new offer on the table for SPEEA members to read and evaluate.

Additionally, this poll is of our readers and not specific to SPEEA.

Clearly the expectations are not good.

SPEEA’s executive director, Ray Goforth, is on record expecting talks to fail immediately when they resume because the gap between the union asks and the Boeing positions are so far apart. A strike vote will be solicited once talks break off.

Unlike the IAM 751, which requires a two-thirds affirmative vote for a strike, SPEEA requires only a simple majority.

“We have no specific target [for a strike vote] other than that,” Goforth tells us. ” SPEEA is a democratically run union.  Decisions are made by majority vote as supplemented by broad consultation with the membership (townhall type meetings, polls, feedback from the elected councils).
“In the run-up to the October 1st vote the Boeing management negotiating team confidently predicted that the contract would be adopted because they knew what the employees wanted better than the union,” Goforth wrote us.
“Today, we at hearing the same language from Boeing management.  Today, we are experiencing the same dismissiveness and disregard from Boeing management.
“Boeing management is still proposing across-the-board pay and benefit cuts for engineers and techs while increasing compensation for themselves and the shareholders.  We expect any such proposal to be rejected by the membership.”