Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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787 Line 2 Update, Oct. 28
Update, 11:30 AM PDT: The Boeing Board of Directors is to make the decision on siting Line 2 today or tomorrow–we have somewhat conflicting information. We’re trying for some clarification.
Original Post:
A flurry of activity erupted last night that reported talks between the IAM and Boeing broke down again, this time for the last time, and it appears Boeing will announce as early as today that Line 2 for the 787 assembly will be in Charleston (SC):
Freudian slip?
We’ll see how long it takes for this to get corrected. The headline is “Former Boeing CEO McNerney named to IBM board.”
US questions China aviation subsidies
Here is a story we wrote for Commercial Aviation Online October 26:
The US Trade Representative (USTR) has filed a series of questions with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over national, multi-industry state subsidies in China, including the development of the China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC) ARJ21 and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd. (COMAC) C919, the first serious challenges by China to Western airliners.
Boeing gains STC on Italian KC-767
Let’s take a break from the Line 2 drama: Boeing issued this news internally about the KC-767 International (Italian) tanker program today:
Boeing’s International Tanker Program on Sept. 23 completed Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification requirements for Italy’s KC-767 Tanker, receiving FAA approval for a Supplemental Type Certificate (STC).
787 Line 2: Countdown to Decision; Opportunities on Both Sides
It’s Monday, October 26, and the final countdown to a decision on where to put Boeing’s 787 Line 2 assembly site may come as early as this week. We understand the Boeing Board of Directors meets today or tomorrow; Boeing’s permit applications in Charleston (SC) to expand the facility there has a November 2 start date. Boeing management and the International Association of Machinists, at loggerheads for years, struggle to find an agreement that will tip the decision to Everett (WA).
We don’t need to recount the high drama of the last week, nor issues that we’ve already discussed.
Instead, we’re going to touch on some issues we’ve not covered, or at least recently, as well as some new things that have come up since last week.
IAM may well “blow it” over 787 Line 2
With an historic opportunity to engage in a radical shift of labor relations with The Boeing Co., the International Association of Machinists may well make an historical decision that will “blow it.”
As anyone in aviation who is interested in commercial aviation knows, from the plethora of news reporting in just the last 24 hours, the IAM national union and Boeing have been engaged in secret talks (yes, they have been secret, despite a denial to the contrary) to attempt to achieve an unprecedented 10-year contract with a no-strike clause. As Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times reported yesterday, these have deadlocked.
SPEEA: We’ll organize Charleston engineers
If Boeing decides to put the second 787 line in Charleston, isolating this work from SPEEA engineers in Puget Sound, SPEEA told this column it will immediately begin an organizing effort of engineers hired in or transferred to Charleston.
No further commentary is needed on this one.
Line 2 talks deadlocked: SEA Times
Dominic Gates at The Seattle Times has a story that’s important to Washington State and South Carolina: talks between Boeing and the IAM are deadlocked, he writes.
Boeing wants a 10-year, no-strike contract in exchange for putting Line 2 of the 787 in Everett. The IAM wants a promise the 737 replacement will be in Washington, too, Gates writes–but Boeing is unwilling to make this guarantee.
United nearing decision on refleeting
Update, November 12:
We’ve learned United is splitting the wide-body and narrow-body RFPs into two, now planning to make two purchases instead of one. The wide-body order will come first. Boeing has recently become aggressive with 787 offers and now this is a real competition between the 787 and A350. The narrow-body RFP will almost certainly slip to 2010.
Original Post:
United Airlines is nearing a decision on refleeting, replacing Boeing 747s, 777s 767s and 757s. Flight International has this detail. Flightglobal’s ACAS database shows United operates 25 747-400s, 34 767-300ERs, 19 777-200s, 33 777-200ERs and 94 757s.
This would be a huge order for Airbus or Boeing. United previously said it plans to stick with one supplier.
The original RFP drew hoots from the industry. United sought terms that were considered ridiculous by many, particularly given United’s own financial condition and the existing backlogs at Airbus and Boeing. Industry sources said UA wanted the winning manufacturer to buy the 767s and 757s at above market valuations and lease them back at below market rental rates; to finance 100% of the new airplanes; and require no down payment or progress payments.
Boeing posts big 3Q09 loss
Here is a link to the press release. The earnings call is at 10:30am EDT today. The results were no particular surprise, as the $1bn charge for the 747-8 program and $2.5bn write off on the 787 were previously announced.
Aerospace analysts were fairly sanguine about the earnings.
David Strauss at UBS wrote:
Boeing (BA): No Surprises
- * Q3 loss of $2.22, better than expected CF: Q3 EPS at -$2.22 vs UBSe -$2.10 and consensus at -$2.12. Q3 includes $3.45 in previously announced 787 and 747-8 charges as well as an additional $0.14 for work incurred during Aug/Sep on first three 787 test airplanes. Operational results were lower than we had forecast on 9% revenue growth (UBSe 14%), including 3% growth at IDS, while 10.2% margins at BCA ex charges were above our 8.3% forecast. FCF at $1B was well above our forecast for a $350M use on working capital contribution (receivables & payables) and lower customer financing.
- * Adjusts guidance for charges, 787 schedule reaffirmed:BA lowered its guidance by $3.40 to $1.35-1.55 to reflect the 787 and 747-8 charges. R&D guidance was increased $3B to $6.6-6.8B. $2.5B is for 787 cost reclassification with remainder to adjust BCA “operating model” and for higher IDS R&D. FCF guidance was raised $100M to >$1.2B on lower capex and customer financing. BA commented it has begun the reinforcement of the wing to the side body area and remains on track for first flight by the end of 2009 and first delivery in Q4 2010.
Joe Nadol at JP Morgan wrote:
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We don’t see much new in the BA results this morning (although on the margin some of the underlying profits and cash flow looked good), and we don’t expect much of an update on the key issues today, particularly 787. Margins in both Commercial and Defense were a somewhat better than we had expected, and cash flow was strong, but we believe the key issue for BA remains the 787 program, and the company had nothing new to say in the release. While we expect many questions on the call to be 787-related, we are not expecting any change today to the company’s outlook for first flight by year end and first delivery in 4Q10. Potential production cuts are a secondary issue for the stock, in our view, but we don’t expect much news on this front either today.
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In a noisy Q3, Boeing reported a loss of $2.23, ahead of the $2.45 loss we had forecast. EBIT from BCA and IDS each exceeded our estimate, partially offset by higher net interest expense and a smaller-than-expected tax benefit.
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Noah Popanak at Goldman Sachs wrote:
GS Aerospace & Defense: Boeing (BA; Neutral): First Take: 787 schedule reiterated, cash flow solid.
- We believe the quarter and guidance are in-line with expectations given the 787 and 747-8 items were announced intra-quarter. In our view, the significantly more important items are: (1) 787 first flight (by year-end) and first delivery (in 4Q10) were reiterated, (2) 3Q cash flow of $1.2bn was strong and full-year cash guidance was reiterated, (3) the full-year BCA aircraft financing target was reduced, (4) there is no change to any build rate schedules, and (5) all 2009 guidance excluding charges was reiterated.
- Analysis
We view today’s results positively and anticipate the market will do the same, as the quarter itself is largely a non-event (given the 787 and 747-8 charges were already announced), and there are other positives to point to in areas where investors have had significant concern. The most significant one is the reiteration of the 787 schedule, as there has been a lot of recent discussion in the market of further potential delays, but today the schedule was reiterated. Other major positives include strong cash flow, and a lower BCA aircraft financing target, two areas where there has been serious doubt with regard to BA’s full-year targets, and it now appears as if they will meet or exceed both.