Leeham News and Analysis
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The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 27, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and present their production-level prototypes. We also analyze whether these capabilities will be the final level.
Today we go through the trickiest part of any electric aircraft or eVTOL, the batteries. They are large, very heavy, and the most difficult part to certify on the aircraft, as the battery is dangerous if not designed, produced, and managed correctly.
Figure 1. The Joby Aviation S4 production prototype. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- The battery system of an eVTOL sets restrictions on the operational usefulness of the category.
- The everyday operational utility of VTOLs is far from the industries’ claims.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 20, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that VTOL OEMs made in their Investor prospects and the scale-down in capabilities as Certification comes closer. We also analyze whether the reduced capabilities will be the final cuts.
In the end, it’s about how operationally useful real-world eVTOL will be and what mission they do better or cheaper than helicopters. It will decide whether the category will have a breakthrough or not.
Figure 1. The Joby Aviation S4 production prototype. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- The Investor’s presentations from eVTOL OEMs are full of “up to” for speeds and feeds.
- When we use our aircraft and eVTOL performance model, the reality is well short of the claims.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 13, 2023, © Leeham News: We have done a deep dive series on the cost problems experienced by small airliners and how these make life difficult for alternative propulsion projects.
The eVTOL industry also faces problems, but here it’s more its own overinflated promises that rub. It’s the subject of our next deep dive.
We look at what the top OEMs promised in the past and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification.
When it comes down to it, what missions can be flown and what cannot? Are the missions that can be flown enabling a new industry?
Figure 1. The Joby production prototype as presented on 28th June. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- Investor prospects promised Total Available Markets (TAMs) as large as $500billion with flights at up to 200 miles per hour to destinations hundreds of miles away
- The reality is more profane. None of these promises hold water.