Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
FAA weighs in on 787 flight test timeline
Update, Feb. 8:
The Puget Sound Business Journal has this article focusing on the certification timeline.
Original Post:
Boeing has publicly said that it plans a flight test timeline of 6-8 months, depending on when Boeing was making its public statements (it’s been a bit of a moving target). The latest information appears to be an 8 month timeline.
Boeing forecasts making its first flight of the 787 in the second quarter; its internal timeline was about April 20 or 24 (first reported by Air Transport World) but we understand this is now a To Be Determined date, with an internal timeline in June–still within the second quarter, it must be noted. (We previously predicted a first flight in the June-August period, and are at the moment sticking to this.)
All Nippon Airlines, the launch customer set to receive the first airplane, said it expects delivery in February 2010. This reaffirms the anticipated eight month flight test forecast made by Boeing, assuming a June first flight. If the first flight comes as late as August, a February delivery to ANA still is theoretically possible if a six month flight test program can be achieved.
As we previously reported, Boeing has reorganized its flight testing department with the intent of increasing manpower and efficiencies. Full implementation isn’t expected until September, about mid-way into the currently projected 787 flight testing timeline. This suggests the 787 flight test program may partially benefit from the reorganization.
As many have written, previous Boeing test programs have taken 11 months or more and aerospace analysts seem fairly well united in predicting a year-long flight test program is more realistic for the 787 than that suggested by Boeing. So we asked the Federal Aviation Administration what it thinks about the timeline. Here’s the answer.
Keeping or ditching the 747-8?
When Boeing CEO James McNerney gave a somewhat mixed assessment of the 747-8 program last week during the earnings call, this set off a couple of key stories about the future of the airplane.
Michele Dunlop of The Evertt Herald wrote this interesting piece, published today. Max Kingsley-Jones of Flight International beat her to the punch slightly with this story on Saturday.
As readers know, we’ve been closely following the 747-8 development for more than a year and were the first to report that delays were likely.
Why Airbus nixed AF One bid
Seattle Times columnist Ron Judd got the real reason why Airbus parent EADS said no to bidding on Air Force One:
“Airbus backed out only after the US government failed to qualify for financing.”
FAA responds to 787 fastener issue
When we were preparing our report about Boeing planning to operate its 787 flight testing program with some non-conforming fasterners still installed on the first six test aircraft, Boeing responded to our inquiries by noting that it worked with the FAA to ensure compliance with rules and safety.
In a routine action, we also inquired of the FAA. This was January 13; we published our story January 25, still awaiting the FAA response. We received that response today. Here are the questions we posed and the FAA’s answers:
SPEEA to Wichita: Reject contract
SPEEA, the Boeing engineer’s union, today urged its members at Boeing Wichita/IDS to reject Boeing’s last contract.
In this market, observers probably think SPEEA is looney, but SPEEA believes Boeing is gearing up to sell the plant and Boeing won’t offer language to protect the union members in this event. The contract offer is less than SPEEA received for its Puget Sound (Seattle) and Utah workers.
Split tanker buy: Murtha
He didn’t get much notice last year when he said it, but US Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), a key member in the House and generally one sympathetic to Boeing, is urging a split buy between Boeing and Northrop Grumman for the KC-X.
George Talbot of The Mobile Press-Register has this story. Aviation Week has this report.
Update, 10:20 AM PST: With SPEEA, the Boeing engineer’s union, recommending rejection of the company’s best and final offer, SPEEA put out a statement that included this paragraph; we wonder what Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Kansas Rep. Todd Tiahrt think about this–they are among the most vociferous boosters of Boeing’s KC-767 offering for the USAF KC-X:
Work at Wichita includes Italian and Japanese 767 tankers, E-4B (747 Airborne Operations Center) and E-737 Australian Wedgetail (Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft). The Italian tankers and Wedgetail are years behind schedule. While union members worked with management to secure the contract for the next aerial refueling tanker, the company refuses to commit to bringing the work to Wichita if Boeing secures the $35 billion contract with the Air Force.
767-400: sold
Boeing sold its 767-400 that was built as the USAF E10 test bed and which we kept asking (without response) if Boeing might convert to a prototype for a bid for a “KC-764” aerial tanker. Flight Global has this report.
Boeing posts loss in 4Q
Update, 3:30 PM PST:
It’s been a busy day responding to media requests for comment about Boeing’s financial results and earnings call. This gives us a feel for how the media viewed the call and the issues they see.
Here are our thoughts after all that.
- Many media viewed Boeing as pointing the finger at the IAM strike for its 4Q loss. There’s no question that the shortfall of some 70 aircraft in 4Q deliveries caused a big hit to the revenue, and that the full year shortfall of some 100 aircraft hit the full year revenue. But don’t overlook the cost-base. Continuing costs for the delayed 747-8 and 787 programs were significant and costs hurt profitability. So did the legal costs. Pointing the finger at the IAM is simplistic.
- Is the 10,000 job reduction the result of the IAM strike and contract? We don’t think so. We think this is Boeing’s prudent response to a lousy global economy.
- We received media questions about whether Boeing is in serious trouble. Our answer is a resounding No. As we’ve previously written, we view 2009 as the year of recovery for Boeing’s airplane development programs. Production lines are returning to pre-strike levels. The one-off nutplate issues are largely resolved for the new airplanes and a program is likely in place for those faulty nutplates on delivered airplanes. Mature airplane programs are humming along.
- What about production this year and next? Boeing personnel meet at least weekly and perhaps more often to assess market conditions. We’re confident they have a good feel for what’s going on in the world and are prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to respond. The question is how quickly can a monolithic organization respond. It takes 18 months to ramp up production with the supply chain. How quickly can it be ramped down, should that become necessary? A key point in the earnings call is that for the first time, Boeing is sounding caution about production beyond this year. Officials refuse to give earnings and production guidance for 2010 at this time.
We remain cautious about Boeing due to the 747 and 787 programs–these need to get flying–and the general global economy, but there is no reason to worry about Boeing itself. The media questions on this score are totally without foundation.
Original Post follows:
Boeing reports 787 order cancellation
Update, 10:00 PST
We’ve learned that the cancellation is not from the customer we thought, so that one is still pending.
So who’s got 15 orders?
Air China
China Eastern
Dubai Aerospace
S7 Group
Virgin Atlantic
We know it is not Virgin Atlantic. Airfinance Journal reports that it is S7 Group.
10:20 AM PST: We can now add that it is not Dubai Aerospace. James Wallace of The Seattle P-I reports that his sources confirm that S7 is the airline.
Original Post:
Boeing has quietly reported that a customer cancelled orders for 15 787s.
We alluded to this pending cancellation in this post.
The news is on Page 4 of its press release announcing its 2008 fourth quarter and full year earnings. The customer is not identified in the release and Boeing doesn’t update its website until tomorrow (Thursday).
We are pretty sure we know who it is, but have not confirmed it so we’ll not mention names yet. Perhaps Boeing will identify the customer in its earnings call beginning at 10:30 EST.
If we’re correct, the significance goes beyond the quanity of 15 and we’ll explain why when we confirm.