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Introduction
Boeing forecasts a requirement for 540 new cargo aircraft of 80 tonnes and up over the next 20 years. This is for airplanes in the Boeing 777F and 747-8F category.

Another 250 new-build cargo airplanes in the 40-80 tonne sector are also forecast in the latest Boeing Cargo forecast for 2014-2033, issued this month. Boeing also forecasts 1,330 P2F conversions.

The forecast is premised on an expectation that cargo traffic will grow at an annual rate of 4.7%.

The forecast appears to fly in the face of conventional wisdom.

Summary

• New-build freighter deliveries lag at Airbus and Boeing.
• Freight is increasingly being carried in the bellies of passenger aircraft.
• Airbus, Boeing orders for new-build freighters stalled.
• Cargo load factors dismal.
• IATA data points to continued challenges.