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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

January 3, 2022, © Leeham News: When the COVID-19 Pandemic started, it was tough to predict its impact on world air travel and how long the downturn would last.

The aircraft OEMs are at the top of a supplier pyramid of hundreds of companies and millions of parts. The prediction of airliner output at the end of this chain is critical for all, but most for suppliers. The suppliers have strained their liquidity to expand the production at the demand of the OEM.

A downturn in deliveries means less money, which forces sensitive suppliers into a liquidity crisis. Brake moderately, and the suppliers can handle it. Brake hard, and they can’t, or brake a bit and then harder, and it’s as bad.

Airbus managed the reductions well, and with an intact supplier chain, 2022 will be about how hard to step on the throttle as the Pandemic isn’t done yet.

Summary

• With a competitive product range and an intact supplier base, 2021 is about the correct level of increase in deliveries, with the Pandemic a bigger worry than the main competition.
• With Airbus’ in perhaps its relative strongest position ever, how much this shifts the market is more a supply issue than anything else.