Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Recapping the KC-X contest
With the expectation that the USAF is going to announce its tanker award this week, we’re going to forego our Odds and Ends kick-off and deal with the tanker.
We’re going to try and synopsize many of the issues that are “out there” in cyber-land, to try and make some sense out of what sometimes seems to be a senseless process.
In no particular order, here we go:
Countdown to KC-X award
As Washington (DC) buzzes with the prospect that the Department of Defense will, at long last, announce its award for the KC-X contract before the end of this month, EADS held a press briefing February 16 to lay out its views one last time that its airplane is the best choice for the job.
Boeing made calls to editorial boards last week to make its case.
The process has dragged on so long that we couldn’t help but think of the photo below, purported to be the first air-to-air refueling.
Source: LaGuardia Airport historical photo.
Top DOD buyer signals globalization is reality; tanker contract might come Feb. 25
Two top Defense Department officials today (Feb. 16) told a conference sponsored by Aviation Week magazine that the contract award for the KC-X could be made by the end of the month.
The buzz in Washington is that it will be after the stock market closed on Friday, Feb. 25.
The statements by the DOD officials are summed up nicely in this Defense News article.
At the same Aviation Week conference, the Pentagon’s top buyer, Ashton Carter, repeated remarks he made a week earlier at the Cowen & Co. aerospace and defense investors’ conference February 9. At the Cowen event, the headlines to come out of it were remarks made by Boeing CEO Jim McNerney about the prospect of proceeding with an all-new replacement for the 737.
The headline that did not come out of it was from a speech presented by the Pentagon’s top buyer, Ashton Carter. Elements of his speech did, indeed, make news. However, buried in his speech as the last topic were his comments about globalization and procuring key defense systems from non-US companies.
Is this laying the groundwork for selecting the EADS North America KC-45 tanker in the KC-X competition? DOD Buzz picked up on this, too, but well down its story.
Perhaps this is too much “Kremlinology” but carefully read his remarks:
Australian magazine profile on KC-30A delays
Update, Feb. 15: at the request of the magazine, we have delinked the article.
Here is a synopsis; the magazine reports:
- The delay is now 27 months, with deliveries hoped for in March;
- Writing comprehensive technical manuals for the aircraft and the new boom is taking longer than thought, contributing to but not entirely responsible for the delay;
- The widely-reported boom separation occurred when “the boom’s probe snapped off near the F-16’s receptacle, causing the boom to spring up and strike the underside of the tanker, snapping off one of the two guiding fins and causing the boom to oscillate wildly until it detached from its supporting mast,” falling into the ocean;
- As a result, the Spanish authorities (who have jurisdiction over Airbus Military, which is headquartered in Spain) withdrew the flight permits for the RAAF KC-30As “until such time as the aircraft is declared safe to fly again….”;
- Because of the delays, Airbus “has been liable for liquidated damages on the contract…they are believed to include the cost of using air-to-air refueling tankers from Omega Air and the USAF” for the RAAF’s F/A-18s.
Original Post:
Australian Aviation has a five page profile on the delays to the RAAF KC-30A, including last December’s boom failure.
The PDF may be downloaded here: RAAF KC-30A Delays
Odds and Ends: Leahy staying, not going; tanker and other things
We posted an item Friday that normally would have waited until this edition of Odds and Ends, but the news that John Leahy might leave Airbus next year couldn’t wait. Aviation Week broke the story.
But we spoke with Airbus Toulouse Sunday and the company denied the story.
PNAA: Split buy is only solution for tanker buy
Day 2 of the PNAA conference: Richard Aboulafia, consultant of The Teal Group, said that a split buy is the only way the USAF will be able to procure the KC-X tanker.
Aboulafia said the decision no longer effectively rests with the Air Force, but with Congress. Each political party has the ability to block a sole-source selection, Aboulafia says.
Other thoughts from Aboulafia:
PNAA conference: EADS likely to win tanker contest
We’re at Day 1 of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA) and at the Defense Focus Day co-organized by the Pacific Northwest Defense Coalition, consultant Michel Merluzeau of G2 Solutions (Kirkland, WA) predicted EADS will likely win the KC-X competition.
Before the Francophiles go crazy, Merluzeau favors Boeing’s KC-767.
Budget impasse hits tanker funding
We wondered about this months ago and sure enough, there is yet another twist in the KC-X competition: Congressional dithering on the budget means there isn’t (as yet) funding for the tanker procurement that is needed this year. See this story from Defense News.
Boeing suggests long life for 767
Boeing rolled out the 1,000th 767 Wednesday (Feb. 2) and BCA CEO Jim Albaugh suggested there is a longer life for the airplane even if the USAF doesn’t choose the KC-767 for its next tanker.
Dominic Gates has this story about the event. The Seattle PI quotes Albaugh as predicting 2,000 767s before the line peters out in this story.
We first suggested there might be a longer life in January 2010 with this posting.
We don’t really have much to add to Gates’ story or our previous post except for this refreshed analysis:
WTO penalties on the tanker? Let’s talk about this
For all the spin back-and-forth Monday (Jan. 31) on the final, but still confidential, ruling on illegal subsidies to Boeing, little was said about the long-running (and overly-politicized) effort by Boeing and its supporters to have Congress force the USAF to take into consideration the previous WTO ruling on illegal Airbus subsidies for the KC-X competition.
Before we start our discussion today, let’s remind readers of our long-standing position that the USAF can’t do so for a variety of practical reasons and one major one: countries can only do so after the WTO authorizes sanctions, and unless the USAF postpones a decision on the tanker contract (or, more likely, screws it up yet again), the award date will come years before any WTO authorization is granted. We need not recount all our reasons nor the process; we’ve done this many times and a search of our Archives will yield postings from recent times on this.
Having stated this disclaimer, one of our reasons for opposing the effort by Boeing and its supporters was that the final Boeing decision had not yet been issued.
The decision is done, even if it is yet confidential for a few more months pending translation. However, with a final decision, the US Trade Representative could share a definitive ruling with the USAF for calculation.
Again, setting aside all the objections, here’s the interesting part that nobody has yet focused on, including Boeing (and this is really inexplicable):