Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing 3Q deliveries up despite strike October 8, 2024
- Strike slows Boeing’s march toward improving safety culture October 7, 2024
- Aerospace supply chain still ailing; Sustainable Aviation Fuel isn’t the answer to go green October 4, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 27. Long developments October 4, 2024
- Longshoreman strike adds to Airbus, Boeing woes October 1, 2024
Odds and Ends: Storm Warnings; Boeing photos now available to everyone; CSeries; Movin’ on up
Nov. 26, 2014:Storm Warnings: We’ve made references in recent posts about airlines on our “Storm Warning Flag” list.
Our 2013 Top Customers and Storm Warning Flag list for wide-body airplanes. The Red are Middle Eastern airlines, blue from Asia and black from the US and Europe. Only one airline for wide-body orders was on our Storm Warning Flag list: AirAsiaX. Expansion and ordering we considered too rapid landed the carrier on the list. Sources: Airbus, Boeing. Click to enlarge.
In 2013, we compiled the Top Customers for Single-Aisle and Twin-Aisle Airplanes for Airbus and Boeing. Here’s our 2013 Storm Warning Flag list. The name comes from the flag, which signals Storm Warnings. This list was compiled before the 777X orders announced at Dubai were firmed up, so the yellow boxes show what the Top 10 Boeing rankings would be had they been. We considered the quantity of orders, the current operations, financial status and other factors in placing a carrier on our Storm Warning Flag list. The Wide-body list also illustrates the growing importance of the Middle Eastern airlines (consider that this was a year ago). The wide-body list is pretty stable.
Red denotes low cost carriers. Since this list, AirAsia has deferred some A320s and so has JetBlue, though for very different reasons. Ryanair placed a large 737 MAX order this year. Source: Airbus, Boeing. Click to enlarge.
On the other hand, the narrow-body list shows far more Storm Warning Flags. This list shows the growing importance of low-fare carriers. The red are LCCs. Once more, this list is a year old and does not reflect the large number of orders placed this year, many of which have yet to be firmed up (such as India’s Indigo order for 250 A320neos and Ryanair’s large 737 MAX order). The same criteria applied to wide-bodied airlines applies here: over-ordering for the size of the airline, financial stability, etc.
We will update these lists after the end of this year.
Boeing photos: Boeing has a huge photo archive and now anyone may purchase photos at Boeing Images. For the enthusiast to the collector, the few images we perused are only the tip of the iceberg, so-to-speak.
Boeing is offering these for sale, including framing and if for Christmas, there is a deadline to place your order. This falls into the “way cool” category. Not only are there the expected legacy-Boeing photos, subjects from the various merged companies, commercial and military, airplane and space, are all there. We happen to be partial to the piston commercial airliners and here’s a direct link.
There are also short videos.
CSeries: Our interview with Bombardier’s CSeries VP and GM, Rob Dewar, and the program update, is now open to all readers.
Movin’ on up: Frontier Airlines placed its first order for the Airbus A321 (the ceo) this week, so we asked whether there are plans to up-gauge the order for the A319neo to the A320 or A321. Frontier is one of only two identified customers for the A319neo (Avianca is the other and there is (or are) Unidentified(s).
“Though no decision has been made as it relates to our upcoming Airbus neo order, our preference moving forward is for larger A320 and A321 aircraft,” a spokesman replied.
The A319neos are scheduled for delivery in 2017. We doubt the airline will take these, but rather will be likely to up-gauge.
Interesting to see EK on the storm warning list. I guess they are now on top of the list for both Airbus and Boeing. They placed enormous orders for A380s and 777s. The A350 order cancellation showed they feel mighty enough to cancel, “they’ll love us anyway” . EK can play games with A380 and 777X orders because of their dominant position.
It seems they overplayed their cards when cancelling the A350s, when other airlines jump on the slots, using them for flights to by-pass Dubai.. Confused EK fleet planning profs carefully asking the princes what they were doing, an A350 is not an A380 or 777X.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/13/emirates-airlines-idUSL6N0T34NY20141113
Ummm… the Storm warning ones are the ones with the flag. AirAsiaX is the only one on the widebody list.
Boeing eyes 2018 launch for New Small Airplane 26 November, 2014
2018 launch, 2024/25 entry into service: internal target
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2014/11/26/boeing-nsa-2018-launch/
Maybe Boeing woke up.
Thanks for opening the interview with Rob Dewar. This is the man to talk to for the CSeries.
One of the engine guru’s on airliners.net has hinted at a possible shortfall on the performance of the Leap destined for the A320.
Where would this leave the MAX if this is true?
It leaves the MAX in the dust. I should actually say that it will make the MAX bite the dust. 😉
Seriously, I always said that Boeing made a mistake by extending the life of the venerable 737. But the consensus seems to be that the present level of technology does not justify a new design. But if this was true Bombardier should have stayed home.
Just try to imagine the impact the CSeries would have had if it had been the size of the A320 and had been optimized for the current narrowbody market requirements. The NSA would clearly have been a runaway success for Boeing. And sooner, rather than too late.
But admittedly it would also have impacted the balance sheet for the short term. And we all know that this is considerably more important than long term vision. Is it not? 😉
I think the Boeing management should acknowledge responsibility for what is happening to this great company. I am afraid the Boeing employees will have to pay dearly for this blatant mistake.
Do you have the link to the A.net comment?
Sorry Scott I do not, but the name on anet is Lightsaber
Probably Reply 184 on this A.net thread:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6164499/
The money quote, for anyone interested:
“But are the LEAPs fully ready? I’m hearing mixed reviews on the engine testing. (Nothing catastrophic, more on fuel burn uncertainty and certain component durability.) “
Also from A.net
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76):
With the issues GE is having during LEAPx testing . . .
PW100: Are you referring here to durability issues? What I understand is that this may become a major headache for (early) operators. Initial durability is very challenging at the moment. TBO (or even Tine Between Hot Section visits) will not be reaching CFM levels for quite some time to come. And there are quite some very expensive hot Section parts that would require premature replacement. I guess the super hot Hot Sections and extreme high pressure ratios are not that easy after all.
Time to get any short term loss of mojo back in time for the 737. CFM will fix it if true.
interesting to put all the eggs in a single basket not to mention going high tech to push the economy. Be interesting to see where it goes with the NSA
The thing that would really keep me up at night if I was a Boeing or Airbus exec. would be the political situation in the Mid. East.
What happens if Saudi, Iraq and Iran descend into chaos in the next decade (unfortunately not a wholly improbable situation)?
I believe Emirates already avoids Syria and ISIS (http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2014-07-29/emirates-stop-iraq-overflights-not-etihad ), but what are the implications of a wholesale regional implosion on the MEA’s western routes?
Emirates Amsterdam-Dubai and Dubai-Amsterdam indeed avoids Syria and Iraq. Nice little detour over Iran last week.
Thanks for opening Rob Dewar’s interview to all readers!
M.H.
I have to go along with Scott on the prop jobs. Jets are efficient, but we all stand and watch when the DC-6 (Evert only these days) depart Anchorage.
Connie through Annette Island back in the day was awesome.
Sad to see them getting replaced with the cargo jets though Everts no longer has a time line for retiring the DC-6 (maybe picked up NAC old stock so they can keep flying)
Azul went for NEO, according to Flightglobal because of better economics. I guess this is OEM guarantees not OEM PR? As MAX should be lighter is this an indication that CFM are having trouble compensating for Leap 1B fan size or is it a Leap 1 issue in general?
If the 777x fuselage is too heavy and eclipsed by the 787 and A350, can Boeing build a true ten abreast CFRP fuselage and re-use the 777x wings? Say a 242″ inside diam. with a 252″ outside diam.